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Using longitudinal data calibrated in daily intervals and a vector ARMA (VARMA) study design, we investigate the causal relations among the number of crimes reported to the police, the frequency of arrest, and the number of defendants held in pretrial jail confinement. Results show a lagged negative effect of frequency of arrest on reported crime. As the number of arrests made by police increases, the number of index crimes reported to authorities decreases substantially the following day. Additionally, the analysis reveals a significant positive contemporaneous relationship between criminal activity and arrest levels. No feedback effects among the three variables are noted. In sum, our findings add empirical support to the thesis that the instantaneous and lagged relationship between crime and clearances are of opposite sign. That is, criminal activity increases arrest levels instantaneously, or at least relatively so, while the negative effect of arrest levels on crime levels transpires more gradually. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article presents a response to a comment on the article The Impact of Sentencing Guidelines on Jail Incarceration in Minnesota which applied an autoregressive integrated moving average analysis to estimate the impact of Minnesota's sentencing guidelines effective in May 1980, on the number of convicted felons sentenced to jail. The analyses on the article are flawed and the procedures they advance for handling imbedded missing data in the dependent series are neither supported in the literature nor logically sufficient, valuable lessons can be drawn from the exchange. Linking determinate sentencing reform to prison populations can have unintended consequences. Specifically, determinate sentencing reforms that place limits only on the growth of prison populations may result in substantial increases in jail use and thereby may erode policymakers' efforts to produce desirable long-term effects on overall incarcerated populations. Further, the organizational imperative to maintain the prison population at an acceptable level may supplant the more distant, more abstract goal of equity in criminal sentencing. Broad sentencing reform efforts that include constraints on jail use are warranted.

Although available empirical evidence suggests that Minnesota's Determinate Sentencing Law has had little effect on prison incarceration, it is still uncertain whether the sentencing guidelines affected jail use. A few recent studies imply that the guidelines have had a positive effect on jail incarceration rates. Accounts have pointed to preexisting trends, more severe sanctioning of repeat property offenders, and judicial concern with prison overcrowding as possible underlying causes of this observed increase. Using longitudinal data and an ARIMA study design, we investigate the validity of these competing explanations. Our findings show that the onset of the sentencing guidelines increased judicial use of the jail sanction beyond the effect of preexisting trends. In addition, the effect of mitigated dispositional departures from the no prison/prison outcome on jail use is salient only when prison population levels are high. This latter finding supports the thesis that judicial concern with prison overcrowding motivated judges to circumvent the guidelines in order to shift the burden of incarcerating offenders from the state to the local level The policy implications of these results for determinate sentencing reform are discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Using an interrupted time-series design, this research note analyzes the long-term effect of Minnesota's sentencing guidelines on reducing unwarranted disparity in sentencing outcomes that fall within their scope of authority. Unwarranted disparity is defined as residual variation not attributable to legally mandated sentencing factors. Findings suggest that although the sentencing guidelines initially reduced disparity for the no prison/prison sentencing decision, inequality began to revert to preguideline levels as time passed. Further analysis revealed that the guidelines had a permanent impact on reducing disparities in decisions on the length of prison sentence. Overall we observed an 18% decline in disparity for the no prison/prison outcome and a 60% reduction in inequality for the judicial decision as to length of prison sentence, Two explanations for the reversionary trend in the no prison/ prison series are highlighted. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Empirical evidence shows that unemployment influences levels of incarceration. Theory attributes this relationship to the state's attempt to control labor surpluses. Studies testing the Rusche and Kirchheimer (1939) thesis yield questionable results, however, because they rely on convicted offender data. Using longitudinal data and a Box-Jenkins Autoregressive-Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) modeling method, we investigate the effect of unemployment rates on pretrial incarceration rates. We include controls for arrest rates, jail capacity, and three court processing variables. Although our preliminary bivariate analysis revealed that the aggregate unemployment rate was significantly and positively related to pretrial incarceration for misdemeanors, this correlation became nonsignificant in the ARIMA analysis. The relationship between unemployment and the incarceration rate for pretrial felony defendants was also nonsignificant. Taken in total, our results suggest that the Rusche and Kirchheimer thesis overstates the importance of unemployment in explaining levels of incarceration. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]