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1. Proportional loss functions for debris flow events

Author

Christoph M. Rheinberger, Hans Romang, Michael Bründl, Economie des Ressources Naturelles (LERNA), Université Toulouse 1 Capitole (UT1), Université Fédérale Toulouse Midi-Pyrénées-Université Fédérale Toulouse Midi-Pyrénées-Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA), Federal Office of Meteorology and Climatology MeteoSwiss, Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research WSL, This paper was partly funded through EU FP6 STREP contract no. 081412 ('IRASMOS')., Université Toulouse Capitole (UT Capitole), and Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)

Subjects
Generalized linear model, 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, risk-assessment, landslide risk, vulnerability, damage, management, regression, hazards, 0211 other engineering and technologies, 02 engineering and technology, 01 natural sciences, lcsh:TD1-1066, Debris flow, Economies et finances, Overdispersion, Statistics, Range (statistics), Econometrics, lcsh:Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering, lcsh:Environmental sciences, risk-assessment, landslide risk, vulnerability, damage, management, regression, hazards, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences, lcsh:GE1-350, 021110 strategic, defence & security studies, Hydrogeology, lcsh:QE1-996.5, Confounding, lcsh:Geography. Anthropology. Recreation, [SHS.ECO]Humanities and Social Sciences/Economics and Finance, Debris, lcsh:Geology, Economies and finances, lcsh:G, General Earth and Planetary Sciences, Environmental science, Risk assessment
Abstract

Quantitative risk assessments of debris flows and other hydrogeological hazards require the analyst to predict damage potentials. A common way to do so is by use of proportional loss functions. In this paper, we analyze a uniquely rich dataset of 132 buildings that were damaged in one of five large debris flow events in Switzerland. Using the double generalized linear model, we estimate proportional loss functions that may be used for various prediction purposes including hazard mapping, landscape planning, and insurance pricing. Unlike earlier analyses, we control for confounding effects of building characteristics, site specifics, and process intensities as well as for overdispersion in the data. Our results suggest that process intensity parameters are the most meaningful predictors of proportional loss sizes. Cross-validation tests suggest that the mean absolute prediction errors of our models are in the range of 11%, underpinning the accurateness of the approach.

Published
2013
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2. Future surface mass balance and surface melt in the Amundsen sector of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet

Author

Christoph Kittel, Charles Amory, Nicolas C. Jourdain, Mondher Chekki, Marion Donat-Magnin, Hubert Gallée, Cécile Agosta, Gerhard Krinner, Institut des Géosciences de l’Environnement (IGE), Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Grenoble Alpes (UGA)-Institut polytechnique de Grenoble - Grenoble Institute of Technology (Grenoble INP ), Université Grenoble Alpes (UGA), Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette] (LSCE), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Glaces et Continents, Climats et Isotopes Stables (GLACCIOS), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), 869304 Horizon 2020 Framework Programme, H2020 Agence Nationale de la Recherche, ANR: ANR-15-CE01-0005-01, Acknowledgements. The present work is a contribution to the TROIS-AS project, and is PROTECT contribution number 6. All the computations presented in this paper were performed using the GRICAD infrastructure (https://gricad.univ-grenoble-alpes.fr, last access: 20 January 2021), which is supported by Grenoble research communities., ANR-15-CE01-0005,TROIS-AS,Vers un système de modélisation régionale océan / calotte / atmosphère(2015), Université Grenoble Alpes (UGA)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut polytechnique de Grenoble - Grenoble Institute of Technology (Grenoble INP ), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), and Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)

Subjects
lcsh:GE1-350, Coupled model intercomparison project, geography, geography.geographical_feature_category, 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, Firn, lcsh:QE1-996.5, Antarctic ice sheet, 010502 geochemistry & geophysics, Snow, Atmospheric sciences, 01 natural sciences, Ice shelf, lcsh:Geology, Glacier mass balance, 13. Climate action, [SDU]Sciences of the Universe [physics], Environmental science, Ice sheet, Sea level, lcsh:Environmental sciences, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences, Earth-Surface Processes, Water Science and Technology
Abstract

We present projections of West Antarctic surface mass balance (SMB) and surface melt to 2080–2100 under the RCP8.5 scenario and based on a regional model at 10 km resolution. Our projections are built by adding a CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5) multi-model-mean seasonal climate-change anomaly to the present-day model boundary conditions. Using an anomaly has the advantage to reduce CMIP5 model biases, and a perfect-model test reveals that our approach captures most characteristics of future changes despite a 16 %–17 % underestimation of projected SMB and melt rates. SMB over the grounded ice sheet in the sector between Getz and Abbot increases from 336 Gt yr−1 in 1989–2009 to 455 Gt yr−1 in 2080–2100, which would reduce the global sea level changing rate by 0.33 mm yr−1. Snowfall indeed increases by 7.4 % ∘C−1 to 8.9 % ∘C−1 of near-surface warming due to increasing saturation water vapour pressure in warmer conditions, reduced sea-ice concentrations, and more marine air intrusion. Ice-shelf surface melt rates increase by an order of magnitude in the 21st century mostly due to higher downward radiation from increased humidity and to reduced albedo in the presence of melting. There is a net production of surface liquid water over eastern ice shelves (Abbot, Cosgrove, and Pine Island) but not over western ice shelves (Thwaites, Crosson, Dotson, and Getz). This is explained by the evolution of the melt-to-snowfall ratio: below a threshold of 0.60 to 0.85 in our simulations, firn air is not entirely depleted by melt water, while entire depletion and net production of surface liquid water occur for higher ratios. This suggests that western ice shelves might remain unaffected by hydrofracturing for more than a century under RCP8.5, while eastern ice shelves have a high potential for hydrofracturing before the end of this century.

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