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The persistence of measles in many countries demonstrates large immunity gaps, resulting from incomplete or ineffective immunization with measles-containing vaccines (MCVs). MCV impact is determined, in part, by vaccination age. Infants who receive dose 1 (MCV1) at older ages have a reduced risk of vaccine failure, but also an increased risk of contracting infection before vaccination. Here, we designed a new method-based on a mathematical transmission model incorporating realistic vaccination delays and age variations in MCV1 effectiveness-to capture the MCV1 age risk trade-off and estimate the optimal age for recommending MCV1. We applied this method to a range of synthetic populations representing lower- and higher-income populations. We predict a large heterogeneity in the optimal MCV1 ages (range: 6-20 months), contrasting the homogeneity of observed recommendations worldwide. Furthermore, we show that the optimal age depends on the local epidemiology of measles, with a lower optimal age predicted in populations having lower vaccination coverage or suffering higher transmission. Overall, our results suggest the scope for public health authorities to tailor the recommended schedule for better measles control., Competing Interests: Competing interests The authors declare no competing interests., (© 2024. The Author(s).)

Background: Isolation of cases and quarantining of non-immune contacts are the mainstay of measles outbreak management in elimination settings. Serology testing of exposed contacts may not be feasible in large outbreaks; therefore, vaccination history is used as a proxy for determining immunity to measles and thus prevention of onward virus transmission. This study sought to investigate the risk of measles virus transmission from individuals with a history of one or two doses of measles-containing vaccine (MCV)., Methods:  Retrospective analysis of data from measles cases reported to Auckland Regional Public Health Service during the 2019 Auckland region measles outbreak. Vaccination history was verified using patient records and the New Zealand National Immunisation Register. Onward transmission was determined through case interviews and assessment of exposed contacts., Results:  1451 measles cases were assessed as eligible for vaccination at the time of measles outbreak. Of these, 1015 (70.0%) were unvaccinated, 220 (15.2%) had unknown vaccination status, 139 (9.6%) had received only one dose of MCV and 77 (5.3%) had received two doses of the vaccine. Compared to unvaccinated cases, the odds of onward transmission were lower among those with one dose only (OR 0.41, 95% CI: 0.20-0.75) or two doses of MCV (OR 0.44, 95% CI: 0.17-0.95). Median time since vaccination was longer among those with onward transmission compared to those without onward transmission for one and two doses of the vaccine, suggesting a potential effect of waning immunity among this cohort., Conclusion:  These findings support the hypothesis that measles cases with a history of prior vaccination are less likely to transmit the virus to others compared to unvaccinated cases. Such information can be used to support decisions around quarantine requirements for vaccinated contacts in future measles outbreaks., Competing Interests: Declaration of competing interest The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper. All authors attest they meet the ICMJE criteria for authorship., (Copyright © 2024 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.)

Measles in persons with secondary vaccination failure (SVF) may be less infectious than cases in unvaccinated persons. Our systematic review aimed to assess transmission risk for measles after SVF. We searched PubMed, Embase, and Web of Science databases from their inception dates. Inclusion criteria were articles describing persons who were exposed to measles-infected persons who had experienced SVF. Across the included 14 studies, >3,030 persons were exposed to measles virus from SVF cases, of whom 180 were susceptible, indicating secondary attack rates of 0%-6.25%. We identified 109 cases of SVF from the studies; 10.09% (n = 11) of case-patients transmitted the virus, resulting in 23 further cases and yielding an effective reproduction number of 0.063 (95% CI 0.0-0.5). These findings suggest a remarkably low attack rate for SVF measles cases, suggesting that, In outbreak situations, public health management of unvaccinated persons could be prioritized over persons with SVF.

Although the availability of the measles vaccine, it is still epidemic in many countries globally, including Bangladesh. Eradication of measles needs to keep the basic reproduction number less than one [Formula: see text]. This paper investigates a modified (SVEIR) measles compartmental model with double dose vaccination in Bangladesh to simulate the measles prevalence. We perform a dynamical analysis of the resulting system and find that the model contains two equilibrium points: a disease-free equilibrium and an endemic equilibrium. The disease will be died out if the basic reproduction number is less than one [Formula: see text], and if greater than one [Formula: see text] epidemic occurs. While using the Routh-Hurwitz criteria, the equilibria are found to be locally asymptotically stable under the former condition on [Formula: see text]. The partial rank correlation coefficients (PRCCs), a global sensitivity analysis method is used to compute [Formula: see text] and measles prevalence [Formula: see text] with respect to the estimated and fitted model parameters. We found that the transmission rate [Formula: see text] had the most significant influence on measles prevalence. Numerical simulations were carried out to commissions our analytical outcomes. These findings show that how progression rate, transmission rate and double dose vaccination rate affect the dynamics of measles prevalence. The information that we generate from this study may help government and public health professionals in making strategies to deal with the omissions of a measles outbreak and thus control and prevent an epidemic in Bangladesh., (© 2021. The Author(s).)

Since the elimination of the measles virus, patients with vaccination records for the measles-containing vaccine have increased in Japan. According to several studies, the transmission risk from previously immunized patients, especially those with secondary vaccine failure (SVF), is lower than that from those with primary measles infections. Immunological features of SVF were identified per specific immunoglobulin G (IgG) induction with high avidity and high plaque reduction neutralization antibody concentration. However, the virological features of SVF have not been well investigated. To examine not only immunological but also virological differences between SVF and immunologically naive patients, throat swabs and blood and urine specimens of 25 patients with confirmed measles infection after an outbreak at the Kansai International Airport in 2016 were analyzed. Patients were categorized as naive (n = 3) or with SVF (n = 22) based on measles-specific IgG antibody concentrations and their avidity. Virus isolation and quantitative real-time polymerase chain reaction were performed to quantify the viral load in clinical specimens and estimate the infectivity in each specimen. The number of viral genome copies in the blood specimens of those with SVF was significantly different and approximately 1 out of 100 of that in immunologically naive patients. However, genome copy numbers in throat swabs and urine specimens were not significantly different between the groups. The virus was isolated only from those in the naive group. Our study indicated low transmission risk of the virus in patients with SVF., (© 2020 Wiley Periodicals LLC.)

During the elimination stage of measles, the development of such disease in individuals who received measles-containing vaccine (MCV) is a concern from an epidemiological standpoint. A few cases in which measles was transmitted from a patient who received two doses of MCV have been reported. However, whether such transmissions were caused by primary vaccine failure (PVF) or secondary vaccine failure (SVF) remains unclear. All patients suspected of measles in Osaka Prefecture between November and December 2018 were enrolled. Data about age, gender, immunization record, and clinical signs were obtained. Laboratory examinations were performed, which included virus isolation in tissue culture, a nucleic acid test based on virus-specific real-time polymerase chain reaction and humoral responses to the measles virus measuring immunoglobulin (Ig) M, IgG, avidity of IgG, and neutralizing antibody concentration. The measles outbreak comprised 10 laboratory confirmed cases, including three secondary and six tertiary patients. Among them, three secondary patients were unvaccinated. The index case had received two MCV doses, and the six tertiary patients were vaccinated. Both the index and tertiary patients had high specific IgG concentration with high avidity. In particular, the index patient had a markedly high neutralization antibody concentration of 425,590 mIU/mL, which indicated immunological SVF. This study first reported about measles transmission from an individual with SVF who received two vaccination doses. To prevent measles transmission and outbreak particularly in countries where measles was almost eliminated, patients with SVF for measles should be cautiously monitored., Competing Interests: Declaration of Competing Interest The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper., (Copyright © 2019 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.)

Purpose: In 2012, Cameroon experienced a large measles outbreak of over 14,000 cases. To determine the spatio-temporal dynamics of measles transmission in Cameroon, we analyzed weekly case data collected by the Ministry of Health., Methods: We compared several multivariate time-series models of population movement to characterize the spatial spread of measles in Cameroon. Using the best model, we evaluated the contribution of population mobility to disease transmission at increasing geographic resolutions: region, department, and health district., Results: Our spatio-temporal analysis showed that the power law model, which accounts for long-distance population movement, best represents the spatial spread of measles in Cameroon. Population movement between health districts within departments contributed to 7.6% (range: 0.4%-13.4%) of cases at the district level, whereas movement between departments within regions contributed to 16.0% (range: 1.3%-23.2%) of cases. Long-distance movement between regions contributed to 16.7% (range: 0.1%-59.0%) of cases at the region level, 20.1% (range: 7.1%-30.0%) at the department level, and 29.7% (range: 15.3%-47.6%) at the health district level., Conclusions: Population long-distance mobility is an important driver of measles dynamics in Cameroon. These findings demonstrate the need to improve our understanding of the roles of population mobility and local heterogeneity of vaccination coverage in the spread and control of measles in Cameroon., (Copyright © 2019 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)

Purpose of Review: In September 2019, the United States was at risk of losing measles elimination status due to several large-scale outbreaks resulting in more than 1200 confirmed cases across 31 states. This resurgence caps approximately 10 years of increasing incidence, marked by a highly publicized outbreak in 2015 associated with Disneyland when an infected traveler from the Philippines unknowingly spread the virus to susceptible park visitors and the recently ended large outbreak in undervaccinated Orthodox Jewish communities in New York City and Rockland counties. This review highlights current literature elucidating factors associated with current trends in measles epidemiology in the United States, the public health implications of current measles outbreaks and a path forward for addressing challenges contributing to the resurgence of measles in the United States and globally., Recent Findings and Summary: As the most highly transmissible vaccine preventable disease, measles is especially sensitive to changes in herd immunity, the impact of vaccine refusal and globalization. Results highlight the confluence of these factors in current outbreaks, provide tools to predict outbreak risk, demonstrate the growing impact of misinformation and evaluate the impact of policy approaches for outbreak control and prevention.

Background: Measles causes significant childhood morbidity in Nigeria. Routine immunization (RI) coverage is around 40% country-wide, with very high levels of spatial heterogeneity (3-86%), with supplemental immunization activities (SIAs) at 2-year or 3-year intervals. We investigated cost savings and burden reduction that could be achieved by adjusting the inter-campaign interval by region., Methods: We modeled 81 scenarios; permuting SIA calendars of every one, two, or three years in each of four regions of Nigeria (North-west, North-central, North-east, and South). We used an agent-based disease transmission model to estimate the number of measles cases and ingredients-based cost models to estimate RI and SIA costs for each scenario over a 10 year period., Results: Decreasing SIAs to every three years in the North-central and South (regions of above national-average RI coverage) while increasing to every year in either the North-east or North-west (regions of below national-average RI coverage) would avert measles cases (0.4 or 1.4 million, respectively), and save vaccination costs (save $19.4 or $5.4 million, respectively), compared to a base-case of national SIAs every two years. Decreasing SIA frequency to every three years in the South while increasing to every year in the just the North-west, or in all Northern regions would prevent more cases (2.1 or 5.0 million, respectively), but would increase vaccination costs (add $3.5 million or $34.6 million, respectively), for $1.65 or $6.99 per case averted, respectively., Conclusions: Our modeling shows how increasing SIA frequency in Northern regions, where RI is low and birth rates are high, while decreasing frequency in the South of Nigeria would reduce the number of measles cases with relatively little or no increase in vaccination costs. A national vaccination strategy that incorporates regional SIA targeting in contexts with a high level of sub-national variation would lead to improved health outcomes and/or lower costs., (Copyright © 2019 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.)

We described nosocomially clustered cases of measles secondary to a nonvaccinated index case occurring in a teenage psychiatric unit despite optimum vaccine coverage. Surveillance of this fully vaccinated closed cohort showed a 7% attack rate. Vaccination limited the risk of complicated measles and the onset of a large outbreak.

Importance: Vaccine exemptions, which allow unvaccinated children to attend school, have increased by a factor of 28 since 2003 in Texas. Geographic clustering of unvaccinated children facilitates the spread of measles introductions, but the potential size of outbreaks is unclear., Objective: To forecast the range of measles outbreak sizes in each metropolitan area of Texas at 2018 and future reduced school vaccination rates., Design, Setting, and Participants: An agent-based decision analytical model using a synthetic population of Texas, derived from the 2010 US Census, was used to simulate measles transmission in the Texas population. Real schools were represented in the simulations, and the 2018 vaccination rate of each real school was applied to a simulated hypothetical equivalent. Single cases of measles were introduced, daily activities and interactions were modeled for each population member, and the number of infections over the course of 9 months was counted for 1000 simulated runs in each Texas metropolitan area., Interventions: To determine the outcomes of further decreases in vaccination coverage, additional simulations were performed with vaccination rates reduced by 1% to 10% in schools with populations that are currently undervaccinated., Main Outcomes and Measures: Expected distributions of outbreak sizes in each metropolitan area of Texas at 2018 and reduced vaccination rates., Results: At 2018 vaccination rates, the median number of cases in large metropolitan areas was typically small, ranging from 1 to 3 cases, which is consistent with outbreaks in Texas 2006 to 2017. However, the upper limit of the distribution of plausible outbreaks (the 95th percentile, associated with 1 in 20 measles introductions) exceeded 400 cases in both the Austin and Dallas metropolitan areas, similar to the largest US outbreaks since measles was eliminated in 2000. Decreases in vaccination rates in schools with undervaccinated populations in 2018 were associated with exponential increases in the potential size of outbreaks: a 5% decrease in vaccination rate was associated with a 40% to 4000% increase in potential outbreak size, depending on the metropolitan area. A mean (SD) of 64% (11%) of cases occurred in students for whom a vaccine had been refused, but a mean (SD) of 36% (11%) occurred in others (ie, bystanders)., Conclusions and Relevance: This study suggests that vaccination rates in some Texas schools are currently low enough to allow large measles outbreaks. Further decreases are associated with dramatic increases in the probability of large outbreaks. Limiting vaccine exemptions could be associated with a decrease in the risk of large measles outbreaks.

Mathematical models of childhood diseases date back to the early twentieth century. In several cases, models that make the simplifying assumption of homogeneous time-dependent transmission rates give good agreement with data in the absence of secular trends in population demography or transmission. The prime example is afforded by the dynamics of measles in industrialized countries in the pre-vaccine era. Accurate description of the transient dynamics following the introduction of routine vaccination has proved more challenging, however. This is true even in the case of measles which has a well-understood natural history and an effective vaccine that confers long-lasting protection against infection. Here, to shed light on the causes of this problem, we demonstrate that, while the dynamics of homogeneous and age-structured models can be qualitatively similar in the absence of vaccination, they diverge subsequent to vaccine roll-out. In particular, we show that immunization induces changes in transmission rates, which in turn reshapes the age distribution of infection prevalence, which effectively modulates the amplitude of seasonality in such systems. To examine this phenomenon empirically, we fit transmission models to measles notification data from London that span the introduction of the vaccine. We find that a simple age-structured model provides a much better fit to the data than does a homogeneous model, especially in the transition period from the pre-vaccine to the vaccine era. Thus, we propose that age structure and heterogeneities in contact rates are critical features needed to accurately capture transient dynamics in the presence of secular trends.

Measles remains a major contributor to preventable child mortality, and bridging gaps in measles immunity is a fundamental challenge to global health. In high-burden settings, mass vaccination campaigns are conducted to increase access to vaccine and address this issue. Ensuring that campaigns are optimally effective is a crucial step toward measles elimination; however, the relationship between campaign impact and disease dynamics is poorly understood. Here, we study measles in Pakistan, and we demonstrate that campaign timing can be tuned to optimally interact with local transmission seasonality and recent incidence history. We develop a mechanistic modeling approach to optimize timing in general high-burden settings, and we find that in Pakistan, hundreds of thousands of infections can be averted with no change in campaign cost., Competing Interests: The authors declare no conflict of interest., (Copyright © 2019 the Author(s). Published by PNAS.)

BackgroundMeasles elimination is based on 95% coverage with two doses of a measles-containing vaccine (MCV2), high vaccine effectiveness (VE) and life-long vaccine-induced immunity. Longitudinal analysis of antibody titres suggests existence of waning immunity, but the relevance at the population-level is unknown.AimWe sought to assess presence of waning immunity by estimating MCV2 VE in different age groups (2-5, 6-15, 16-23, 24-30 and 31-42 years) in Berlin.MethodsWe conducted a systematic literature review on vaccination coverage and applied the screening-method using data from a large measles outbreak (2014/15) in Berlin. Uncertainty in input variables was incorporated by Monte Carlo simulation. In a scenario analysis, we estimated the proportion vaccinated with MCV2 in those 31-42 years using VE of the youngest age group, where natural immunity was deemed negligible.ResultsOf 773 measles cases (median age: 20 years), 40 had received MCV2. Average vaccine coverage per age group varied (32%-88%). Estimated median VE was  > 99% (95% credible interval (CrI): 98.6-100) in the three youngest age groups, but lower (90.9%, 95% CrI: 74.1-97.6) in the oldest age group. In the scenario analysis, the estimated proportion vaccinated was 98.8% (95% CrI: 96.5-99.8).ConclusionVE for MCV2 was generally high, but lower in those aged 31-42 years old. The estimated proportion with MCV2 should have led to sufficient herd immunity in those aged 31-42 years old. Thus, lower VE cannot be fully explained by natural immunity, suggesting presence of waning immunity.

Introduction: In November 2015 a measles outbreak was detected in several clustered settlements during the Northern Measles Supplementary Immunization Activities (SIAs) campaign in Gwagwalada, Nigeria, a measles outbreak was detected. Six weeks later another outbreak with 17 cases was reported in a different settlement in the same area council in December 2015 and January 2016. An outbreak investigation was initiated to characterize the outbreak in terms of time and person and implement prevention and control measures., Methods: Suspected cases were defined as any person in Gwagwalada with onset of fever and rash between 1st November 2015 and 12th January 2016. Probable cases were defined as suspected cases with 3 days of rash or known exposure to someone with laboratory-confirmed measles. Confirmed case patients were defined as suspected or probable cases with Koplik spots or positive titer for immunoglobulin (Ig) M antibody. We conducted house to house case search, contact tracing and reviewed hospital records at the health facilities to determine the socio-demographic characteristics, clinical presentation and vaccination status of the cases., Results: Active case search between November 2015 and January 2016 as well as record review from January 2015 to January 2016 showed that there were 109 suspected and 10 confirmed case patients. We identified 66 cases during the first reported outbreak with a case fatality rate of 6% (4 deaths) while 17 cases were identified 6 weeks later. The epidemic curve indicated a person-to-person transmission., Conclusion: There had been cases of measles from January 2015 to November 2015 prior to the reported measles outbreak. However there was an unusual increase in the number of measles cases during the measles SIAs in communities where children were missed. Vaccination of all eligible children in the affected wards was carried out. The area council authorities and primary healthcare team need to create awareness on the importance of measles vaccination and ensure that these communities are targeted and covered during subsequent SIAs., Competing Interests: The authors declare no competing interests.

The United States Supreme Court has upheld state vaccination mandates as a condition of entry to schools by relying on their police power in protecting public health and safety. Despite this broad authority, many state mandates include exemptions that permit parents to refuse vaccination on behalf of their children for nonmedical reasons, like religious, philosophical, or personal beliefs. A spectrum of these laws currently exists, ranging from California's ban of all nonmedical claims to Ohio's extremely permissive grant of exemptions. This article discusses each of these states' mandates and the relationship between relaxed exemption laws and measles outbreaks using statistical analyses. To curb the spread of this vaccine-preventable disease, states should consider the threat to public health paramount to individual liberty infringement by restricting access to nonmedical exemptions. This approach aligns with a century of case law that has rejected vaccination mandate challenges based on fundamental rights, religious freedom, equal protection, and due process. Now states must act within that authority to safeguard against the persistence of this potentially fatal disease.

In Portugal, measles vaccination coverage and population immunity are high, and no endemic measles cases had been reported since 2004. The World Health Organization classified measles as eliminated in the country in 2015 and 2016, based on data from the previous 3 years. However, in a context of increasing incidence in several European countries in 2016 and 2017, Portugal experienced two simultaneous measles outbreaks with a total of 27 laboratory-confirmed cases (0.3 cases/100,000 population) in two health regions between February and May 2017. Nineteen cases (70.1%) were adults, of whom 12 were healthcare workers. Overall, 17 cases (63.0%) were not vaccinated, of whom five were infants younger than 12 months of age. One unvaccinated teenager died. Genotype B3 was identified in 14 cases from both regions. Measles virus sequencing identified different possible origins of the virus in each region affected. Although measles transmission was stopped in less than 2 months from the first case being notified, these outbreaks represent an opportunity to reinforce awareness of measles diagnosis. We highlight the intensity of the control measures taken and their impact on the rapid control of the outbreaks and also the fact that high vaccination coverage was crucial to stop transmission.

Background: Substantial heterogeneity in measles outbreak sizes may be due to genotype-specific transmissibility. Using a branching process analysis, we characterize differences in measles transmission by estimating the association between genotype and the reproduction number R among postelimination California measles cases during 2000-2015 (400 cases, 165 outbreaks)., Methods: Assuming a negative binomial secondary case distribution, we fit a branching process model to the distribution of outbreak sizes using maximum likelihood and estimated the reproduction number R for a multigenotype model., Results: Genotype B3 is found to be significantly more transmissible than other genotypes (P = .01) with an R of 0.64 (95% confidence interval [CI], .48-.71), while the R for all other genotypes combined is 0.43 (95% CI, .28-.54). This result is robust to excluding the 2014-2015 outbreak linked to Disneyland theme parks (referred to as "outbreak A" for conciseness and clarity) (P = .04) and modeling genotype as a random effect (P = .004 including outbreak A and P = .02 excluding outbreak A). This result was not accounted for by season of introduction, age of index case, or vaccination of the index case. The R for outbreaks with a school-aged index case is 0.69 (95% CI, .52-.78), while the R for outbreaks with a non-school-aged index case is 0.28 (95% CI, .19-.35), but this cannot account for differences between genotypes., Conclusions: Variability in measles transmissibility may have important implications for measles control; the vaccination threshold required for elimination may not be the same for all genotypes or age groups.

Policy makers responsible for managing measles and rubella immunization programs currently use a wide range of different vaccines formulations and immunization schedules. With endemic measles and rubella transmission interrupted in the region of the Americas, all five other regions of the World Health Organization (WHO) targeting the elimination of measles transmission by 2020, and increasing adoption of rubella vaccine globally, integrated dynamic disease, risk, decision, and economic models can help national, regional, and global health leaders manage measles and rubella population immunity. Despite hundreds of publications describing models for measles or rubella and decades of use of vaccines that contain both antigens (e.g., measles, mumps, and rubella vaccine or MMR), no transmission models for measles and rubella exist to support global policy analyses. We describe the development of a dynamic disease model for measles and rubella transmission, which we apply to 180 WHO member states and three other areas (Puerto Rico, Hong Kong, and Macao) representing >99.5% of the global population in 2013. The model accounts for seasonality, age-heterogeneous mixing, and the potential existence of preferentially mixing undervaccinated subpopulations, which create heterogeneity in immunization coverage that impacts transmission. Using our transmission model with the best available information about routine, supplemental, and outbreak response immunization, we characterize the complex transmission dynamics for measles and rubella historically to compare the results with available incidence and serological data. We show the results from several countries that represent diverse epidemiological situations to demonstrate the performance of the model. The model suggests relatively high measles and rubella control costs of approximately $3 billion annually for vaccination based on 2013 estimates, but still leads to approximately 17 million disability-adjusted life years lost with associated costs for treatment, home care, and productivity loss costs of approximately $4, $3, and $47 billion annually, respectively. Combined with vaccination and other financial cost estimates, our estimates imply that the eradication of measles and rubella could save at least $10 billion per year, even without considering the benefits of preventing lost productivity and potential savings from reductions in vaccination. The model should provide a useful tool for exploring the health and economic outcomes of prospective opportunities to manage measles and rubella. Improving the quality of data available to support decision making and modeling should represent a priority as countries work toward measles and rubella goals., (© 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.)

Although evidence has shown that supplementary immunization activity (SIA) campaigns greatly reduce the incidence of measles, their effects on disease transmissibility have seldom been monitored. A great decrease in the number of cases may be a false signal of early success towards measles elimination to policy makers. By interpreting the transmissibility in two different post-SIA periods in Hubei, China, the current study showed sustained measles transmissions despite a reduced number of cases. Two population-based cross-sectional serological surveys of measles antibodies were conducted in Hubei province in mid-2010 and mid-2011 after the implementation of SIAs. Immunoglobulin G (IgG) antibodies against measles were measured by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA). Based on the estimated age-specific susceptibility levels, the effective reproduction number (R), a key indicator of disease transmissibility, was determined by the next generation matrix in transmission model. The results revealed an overall IgG seroprevalence of 88.0% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 85.6-90.4%) and 89.6% (95%CI: 88.0-91.2%), respectively, in the two different periods. Comparatively lower seroprevalence rates were observed among children less than 24months of age and young adults 15 to 19years of age in 2011. The Rs were 0.76 and 1.53 for the two study periods. In conclusion, even though the incidence was reduced to below 1/100,000 in both 2010 and 2011, the reproduction number in 2011 indicates a high risk for sustained measles transmission. This finding was potentially due to a lower seropositivity rate among young adults that had not been covered in the first SIA. Thus, implementation of SIA targeted to appropriate age groups is recommended. Regular monitoring of seroprevalence is also suggested to track disease transmissibility and to align SIA with the appropriate age groups., (Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.)

Aims: In recent years, Europe has recorded an increase in the number of measles outbreaks despite the implementation of vaccination into the National Immunization Programs. The Czech Republic introduced vaccination against measles into National Immunization Program in 1969. The aim of this study was to determine seroprevalence of IgG antibodies against measles in adults., Methods: Our study was designed as a prospective, multicenter cohort study. Samples of blood were taken from adults aged 18 years and over. Specific IgG antibodies were determined by ELISA method., Results: A number of 1911 sera samples were obtained. The total seropositivity reached 83.3%, 14.3% of the results were negative and 2.4% were borderline. When comparing the individual age groups, the highest antibody seropositivity (> 96%) was detected in persons aged 50 years and over who were naturally infected in pre-vaccine era. The lowest seropositivity was recorded in the age groups 30-39 years (61.5%), 40-49 years (77.5%) and 18-29 years (81.1%)., Conclusions: A long term high rate of seropositivity persists after natural measles infection. By contrast, it decreases over time after vaccination. Similarly, the concentrations of antibodies in persons with measles history persist for a longer time at a higher level than in vaccinated persons. Our results indicate possible gap in measles protection in adults born after implementation of vaccination into the National Immunization Programs. There are two probable reasons, decrease of measles antibody seropositivity in time after vaccination in setting of limited natural booster and one-dose vaccination schedule used in the first years after implementation., Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

A key question in clarifying human-environment interactions is how dynamic complexity develops across integrative scales from molecular to population and global levels. Apart from its public health importance, measles is an excellent test bed for such an analysis. Simple mechanistic models have successfully illuminated measles dynamics at the city and country levels, revealing seasonal forcing of transmission as a major driver of long-term epidemic behavior. Seasonal forcing ties closely to patterns of school aggregation at the individual and community levels, but there are few explicit estimates of school transmission due to the relative lack of epidemic data at this scale. Here, we use data from a 1904 measles outbreak in schools in Woolwich, London, coupled with a stochastic Susceptible-Infected-Recovered model to analyze measles incidence data. Our results indicate that transmission within schools and age classes is higher than previous population-level serological data would suggest. This analysis sheds quantitative light on the role of school-aged children in measles cross-scale dynamics, as we illustrate with references to the contemporary vaccination landscape., Competing Interests: The authors declare no conflict of interest.

Measles is one of the most contagious human diseases. Administration of the live attenuated measles vaccine has substantially reduced childhood mortality and morbidity since its licensure in 1963. The live but attenuated form of the vaccine describes a virus poorly adapted to replicating in human tissue, but with a replication yield sufficient to elicit an immune response for long-term protection. Given the high transmissibility of the wild-type virus and that transmission of other live vaccine viruses has been documented, we conducted a systematic review to establish if there is any evidence of human-to-human transmission of the live attenuated measles vaccine virus. We reviewed 773 articles for genotypic confirmation of a vaccine virus transmitted from a recently vaccinated individual to a susceptible close contact. No evidence of human-to-human transmission of the measles vaccine virus has been reported amongst the thousands of clinical samples genotyped during outbreaks or endemic transmission and individual case studies worldwide., (Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.)

Background: A measles outbreak occurred in a western county of China in 2013, the year after China's historic nadir of measles. We conducted a field investigation to identify gaps in measles vaccination coverage and immunization program weaknesses, and to provide recommendations for measles outbreak response and immunization program improvement., Methods: We analyzed surveillance data from 2008 to 2013 to describe the measles epidemiology of the county. Measles-containing vaccine coverage was estimated using two methods: previously-reported administrative coverage and an estimation of coverage by clinic-kept vaccination records (n = 542). We conducted a rapid field coverage assessment in a migrant population village to evaluate coverage after emergency vaccination. We conducted a review of hospital records of measles cases to address the role hospital transmission played during the early stage of this outbreak., Results: There were 153 cases in the outbreak, primarily among children too young to vaccinate, unvaccinated children less than 3 years old, and adults. Measles-containing vaccine coverage by the field assessment showed that 20% of children aged 8-17 months had zero doses, and 9% of ≥2 years old children had fewer than two doses. The vaccination statuses of all adult cases were either zero doses or unknown. At least 61% of cases had been hospitalized. The proportion of cases who had been hospital-exposed 7 to 21 days prior to rash onset decreased from 52% to 22% after hospitals strengthen their isolation measures., Conclusions: This outbreak was a result of measles vaccination coverage gaps among young children and adults, and insufficient hospital isolation of cases. The lower coverage seen in the field estimation compared with reported coverage showed that reported coverage could have been overestimated. Hospitals were sites of transmission in the early stage of the outbreak. A strict hospital isolation policy could decrease spread of measles. Emergency vaccination was associated with stopping measles transmission in low coverage areas., Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

We have reviewed various strategies involved in containment of measles in healthcare facilities during community outbreaks. The strategies that are more applicable to resource-poor settings, such as natural ventilation, mechanical ventilation with heating and air-conditioning systems allowing unidirectional air-flow, and protection of un-infected patients and healthcare workers (HCWs), have been examined. Ventilation methods need innovative customization for resource-poor settings followed by validation and post-implementation analysis for impact. Mandatory vaccination of all HCWs with two doses of measles-containing vaccine, appropriate post-exposure prophylaxis of immunocompromised inpatients, and stringent admission criteria for measles cases can contribute toward reduction of nosocomial and secondary transmission within facilities.

Background: Nosocomial transmission of measles is a near avoidable event with the potential for serious sequelae. Those who acquire infection in hospitals may be particularly susceptible to serious disease. UK guidance recommends measles, mumps, rubella vaccine (MMR) vaccination for healthcare workers (HCWs) as a key preventative measure against nosocomial transmission. We report an incident of transmission of measles from a patient to an unvaccinated HCW, with subsequent onward transmission to a patient in a paediatric unit., Methods: Response to the incident was undertaken in accordance with guidance from the Health Protection Agency (now Public Health England) and UK Department of Health., Results: The index case had travelled to France, where there was an ongoing outbreak. There were 110 contacts identified for this HCW, of whom 61 were advised to have MMR and 5 were given immunoglobulin. All three cases were found to have the same D4 genotype., Conclusions: The report highlights the large number of potential contacts in a hospital setting and the time and resource implications involved to prevent further cases. It also highlights the importance of timely identification of measles, early public health notification and complete contact tracing. Such incidents are nearly avoidable given the availability of an efficacious vaccine., (© The Author 2013. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Faculty of Public Health. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.)

Measles transmission has been well documented in healthcare facilities. Healthcare personnel who are unvaccinated and who lack other evidence of measles immunity put themselves and their patients at risk for measles. We conducted a systematic literature review of measles vaccination policies and their implementation in healthcare personnel, measles seroprevalence among healthcare personnel, measles transmission and disease burden in healthcare settings, and impact/costs incurred by healthcare facilities for healthcare-associated measles transmission. Five database searches yielded 135 relevant articles; 47 additional articles were found through cross-referencing. The risk of acquiring measles is estimated to be 2 to 19 times higher for susceptible healthcare personnel than for the general population. Fifty-three articles published worldwide during 1989-2013 reported measles transmission from patients to healthcare personnel; many of the healthcare personnel were unvaccinated or had unknown vaccination status. Eighteen articles published worldwide during 1982-2013 described examples of transmission from healthcare personnel to patients or to other healthcare personnel. Half of European countries have no measles vaccine policies for healthcare personnel. There is no global policy recommendation for the vaccination of healthcare personnel against measles. Even in countries such as the United States or Finland that have national policies, the recommendations are not uniformly implemented in healthcare facilities. Measles serosusceptibility in healthcare personnel varied widely across studies (median 6.5%, range 0-46%) but was consistently higher among younger healthcare personnel. Deficiencies in documentation of two doses of measles vaccination or other evidence of immunity among healthcare personnel presents challenges in responding to measles exposures in healthcare settings. Evaluating and containing exposures and outbreaks in healthcare settings can be disruptive and costly. Establishing policies for measles vaccination for healthcare personnel is an important strategy towards achieving measles elimination and should be a high priority for global policy setting groups, governments, and hospitals., (Published by Elsevier Ltd.)

Background: Measles is a highly contagious vaccine-preventable infection which continues to be a significant cause of childhood morbidity and mortality in developing countries particularly those with poor routine immunisation coverage. Supplemental immunisation activities (SIAs) were thus introduced to improve vaccine coverage., Objective: This study was carried out to assess the impact of the supplemental measles vaccinations on the cases of measles admitted at a tertiary health facility in South west Nigeria., Methods: Weretrospectivelylooked at therecords of cases of measles in children admitted to the Wesley Guild Hospital, Ilesa over a ten year period (2001 - 2010); five years before and five years after the nationwide commencement of supplemental measles immunisation activities (SIAs) in the region in 2006. Measles cases were defined using the WHO case definition., Results: Over the ten year study period, a total of 12,139 children were admitted andmanaged; out of which 302 (2.5%) were cases of complicated measles. There was no difference in the mean (SD) of children admitted in the years before and after the introduction of the SIAs {6040 (122.7) vs.6099 (120.2); t-test 0.02, p =0.988.} There was however a remarkable reduction in the proportion of the cases of measles admitted after the introduction of SIAs compared to the period before SIAs (4.3% vs. 0.6% x2=169.580; p < 0.001)., Conclusion: SIAs have remarkably reduced morbidity and mortality associated with measles in the region. We advocate for sustenance of these efforts as well as improvement in routine immunisation coverage to avoid a backlash which can lead to devastating measles outbreak.

In Italy, during the course of the past century to the present-day, measles incidence underwent a remarkable decreasing trend that started well before the introduction of the national immunization programme. In this work, we aim at examining to what extent both the demographic transition, characterized by declining mortality and fertility rates over time, and the vaccination programme are responsible for the observed epidemiological pattern. Making use of a non-stationary, age-structured disease transmission model, we show that in the pre-vaccination era, from 1901 to 1982, the decline in birth rates has resulted in a drastic decrease in the effective transmission rate, which in turn has determined a declining trend of measles incidence (from 25.2 to 10.3 infections per 1000 individuals). However, since 1983, vaccination appears to have become the major contributing factor in the decrease of measles incidence, which otherwise would have remained stable as a consequence of the nearly constant birth rates. This led to a remarkable decrease in the effective transmission rate, to a level well below the critical threshold for disease persistence. These findings call for the adoption of epidemiological models, which deviate the age structure from stationary equilibrium solutions, to better understand the biology of infectious diseases and evaluate immunization programmes.

Objective: To describe the outbreak investigation and control measures for a cluster of measles cases involving 'fly-in fly-out' (FIFO) workers on an off-shore industrial vessel., Methods: Following Australian guidelines, measles cases were interviewed and at-risk contacts on the Australian mainland received measles vaccine, immunoglobulin or health advice. For the industrial vessel: (i) exposed FIFO workers who had already left the vessel received health advice through their employer; (ii) workers remaining on the vessel were offered measles vaccine; and (iii) FIFO workers joining the vessel for 21 days following the prodrome onset of the last case of measles on the vessel were offered measles vaccine. Measles virus isolates were sent for genotype determination., Results: Four measles cases from two Australian jurisdictions were epidemiologically linked to the retrospectively identified index case, a New Zealand FIFO worker. No further cases were detected following the institution of outbreak control measures., Conclusion: FIFO workers congregating on large industrial projects are a discrete risk group with the potential to spread infectious diseases over large distances, both domestically and internationally., Implications: FIFO workers' immunisation history should be reviewed prior to deployment. Catch-up vaccination, where appropriate, would minimise transmission of vaccine-preventable diseases such as measles and help maintain a healthy, productive workforce., (© 2013 The Authors. ANZJPH © 2013 Public Health Association of Australia.)

We consider the case of measles in South Africa to show that an high vaccination coverage may be not enough - alone - to ensure measles eradication. The occurrence of certain epidemic episodes may in fact be encouraged by delays in the treatments or by not adequately fast clinical case management, which may be related to the backward bifurcation phenomenon as well as to an intriguing spiking dynamics which appears in the system for specific ranges of parameter values.

Background: A prolonged measles epidemic occurred in Wenzhou City, China after a nationwide measles mass immunization campaign (MMIC) in 2010. We conducted an investigation to identify factors contributing to this epidemic and to provide evidence-based recommendations for measles elimination strategies in China., Methods: Measles was diagnosed using the national standard case-definitions. We estimated the population vaccination coverage based on the proportion of measles patients that had been vaccinated. In a case-control investigation, all measles patients who received treatment in The Second Affiliated Hospital of Wenzhou Medical College (Hospital S) during November 1 to December 31, 2010 served as cases; controls were randomly selected among all other patients who received treatment in Hospital S during the same time period, frequency matched by month of hospital visit. We reviewed medical records of case- and control-patients to compare their exposure history at Hospital S and to its intravenous rehydration room (IV room) during the incubation period (7-21 days before their illness onset)., Results: The attack rate of measles in Wenzhou City was 3.3/100,000 during September 1, 2010 to January 11, 2011. Children aged 8-11 m had the highest attack rate (171/100,000) of all age groups. In children not age-eligible for the MMIC but should have been routinely vaccinated after the MMIC, the vaccination rate was only 52%. In the case-control investigation, 60% (25/42) of case-patients compared with 21% (35/168) of control-patients had visited Hospital S (adjusted ORM-H = 5.5, 95% CI = 2.7-11). Among unvaccinated children who had received treatment in Hospital S, 84% (21/25) of case-patients compared 38% (11/29) of control-patients had visited the IV room (adjusted ORM-H = 9.2, 95% CI = 1.5-59)., Conclusion: Relaxed routine measles vaccination among children after the MMIC was the main factor responsible for this epidemic. Exposure in the IV room at Hospital S facilitated the epidemic. To reach the goal of measles elimination, the Chinese public health authorities should make greater efforts to improve timely routine measles vaccination, and to reduce nosocomial transmission.

Objective: To develop a model for identifying areas at high risk for sporadic measles outbreaks based on an analysis of factors associated with a national outbreak in South Africa between 2009 and 2011., Methods: Data on cases occurring before and during the national outbreak were obtained from the South African measles surveillance programme, and data on measles immunization and population size, from the District Health Information System. A Bayesian hierarchical Poisson model was used to investigate the association between the risk of measles in infants in a district and first-dose vaccination coverage, population density, background prevalence of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection and expected failure of seroconversion. Model projections were used to identify emerging high-risk areas in 2012., Findings: A clear spatial pattern of high-risk areas was noted, with many interconnected (i.e. neighbouring) areas. An increased risk of measles outbreak was significantly associated with both the preceding build-up of a susceptible population and population density. The risk was also elevated when more than 20% of infants in a populous area had missed a first vaccine dose. The model was able to identify areas at high risk of experiencing a measles outbreak in 2012 and where additional preventive measures could be undertaken., Conclusion: The South African measles outbreak was associated with the build-up of a susceptible population (owing to poor vaccine coverage), high prevalence of HIV infection and high population density. The predictive model developed could be applied to other settings susceptible to sporadic outbreaks of measles and other vaccine-preventable diseases.

Following the implementation of the national measles elimination program, the Republic of Korea declared in 2006 that measles had been eliminated. However in 2011, a measles outbreak was reported in Gyeongnam Province in the southeastern part of the country. We conducted active case-based surveillance and analyzed the data of cases reported in 2011 to identify the factors contributing to the reemergence of measles in this province. Of 41 confirmed measles cases reported in Korea, 32 were from within the Gyeongnam Province. Among cases identified in the outbreak, 97% had inadequate history of immunization, 28% were not immunized at the recommended ages, and 22% were infants aged 6-11 months. The outbreak involved transmission in 3 hospitals, 1 kindergarten, 1 day-care center, and 3 households. Molecular analysis of measles virus isolates from 11 cases revealed the same D9 genotype, which was the first to be discovered in Korea. In conclusion, inadequate immunization coverage, non-timely immunization, infants under 12 months of age, nosocomial transmission, and international importation may play important roles in the reemergence of measles in Korea during the attempted sustained elimination of the disease.

Background: Following the implementation of national measles elimination plan in Korea, the elimination was declared in 2006. In order to sustain the elimination, high population immunity should be continuously monitored. To evaluate the current age-related susceptibility within the Korean population, we conducted the seroprevalence in children and adolescents who were affected by the national measles elimination plan., Methods: We used residual serum specimens to measure measles specific IgG and geometric mean titer (GMT) in birth cohorts 2007-2008 and 1997-2003. Among birth cohorts, 2007-2008 cohorts were grouped to evaluate the timeliness of first dose of MMR, 1994-2003 cohorts were grouped to evaluate the effect of keep-up MMR2 campaign, and 1992-1993 cohorts were grouped to evaluate the effect of catch-up campaign in 2001., Results: Overall, measles seropositivity rate was 86%. The highest seroprevalence of measles IgG was in birth cohorts 2007-2008. Measles seropositivity declined continuously in age groups. The birth cohorts 1994-1996 showed significantly lower levels of seropositivity and GMT than did the other birth cohorts., Conclusion: Despite efforts to eliminate measles for the past 10 years in Korea, our study revealed specific birth cohorts remaining at risk for transmission. The adolescents born during 1994-1996 had the lowest measles seropositivity levels, and might represent a 'pocket' that has potential at increased risk for measles transmission. Further discussion for follow-up immunization should be placed for consideration in the near future., (Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.)

Although endemic measles transmission has been interrupted in the United States, importations of this highly infectious virus continue. On March 28, 2009, a physician notified the Pennsylvania Department of Health (PADOH) of a measles case involving an unvaccinated child. Within 5 days, four additional cases were reported to PADOH and the Allegheny County Health Department. All five infected persons had been in the same hospital emergency department (ED) on March 10; one of them was a physician who worked in the ED. To find the source patient, PADOH reviewed electronic records of patients evaluated in the ED on March 10 for fever and rash. This identified a child who arrived recently from India, was treated for viral exanthema, and discharged. On April 3, PADOH obtained serum from this child and confirmed a diagnosis of measles. After an extensive regional search and investigation of the six patients' 4,000 contacts, no additional cases were identified. The hospital reviewed employee health records to identify any exposed personnel who did not have serologic evidence of measles immunity. Among 168 potentially exposed employees, 72 (43%) had no documented measles immunity, thus requiring serologic testing and subsequent vaccination if they lacked serologic evidence of immunity. This outbreak highlights the potential for measles transmission in health-care settings. To decrease transmission, clinicians should know the signs and symptoms of measles, request travel histories of patients suspected of any infectious disease, and isolate potentially infectious patients. Hospital employees should have documented immunity to measles, and employees without evidence of measles immunity should be offered vaccination in accordance with Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices (ACIP) and Hospital Infection Control Practices Advisory Committee (HICPAC) recommendations.