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Evidence has emerged regarding the role of seasonality and several meteorological parameters on bipolar disorder, schizophrenia and depression. We investigated the relationship between ambient and apparent temperature and hospital admissions of major psychiatric diseases in a psychiatric clinic of a General Hospital situated in Northern Greece during 2013–19. Temperature data was provided by the National Observatory of Athens and diagnosis for psychotic, schizophrenic, manic and bipolar and unipolar depression were retrieved from medical records. A total of 783 admissions were recorded. Poisson regression models adjusted for time trends were applied to analyze the impact of temperature on monthly admissions. A summer peak was observed for the bipolar disorder, irrespectively of substance/alcohol use status. Seasonality emerged also for psychotic and schizophrenic patients with a through in winter. An increase of 1 °C in either ambient or apparent temperature was associated with an increase 1–2% in the monthly admissions in most outcomes under investigation. Alcohol and drug abuse did not modify this effect. Although our results indicate effects of temperature on psychiatric admissions, they are not consistent across subgroups populations and need to be replicated by other methodologically superior studies.

Background and ObjectivesThere is accumulating evidence supporting an association between the thrombosis and thrombocytopenia syndrome (TTS) and adenovirus vector-based vaccines against severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). Yet TTS and TTS-associated cerebral venous sinus thrombosis (CVST) remain poorly characterized. We aim to systematically evaluate the proportion of CVST among TTS cases and assess its characteristics and outcomes.MethodsWe performed a systematic review and meta-analysis of clinical trials, cohorts, case series, and registry-based studies with the aim to assess (1) the pooled mortality rate of CVST, TTS-associated CVST, and TTS and (2) the pooled proportion of patients with CVST among patients with any thrombotic event and TTS. Secondary outcomes comprised clinical characteristics of patients with postvaccination thrombotic event. This meta-analysis is reported according to the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses guidelines and was written according to the Meta-analysis of Observational Studies in Epidemiology proposal.ResultsSixty-nine studies were included in the qualitative analysis comprising 370 patients with CVST out of 4,182 patients with any thrombotic event associated with SARS-CoV-2 vector-based vaccine administration. Twenty-three studies were included further in quantitative meta-analysis. Among TTS cases, the pooled proportion of CVST was 51% (95% confidence interval [CI] 36%–66%; I2 = 61%). TTS was independently associated with a higher likelihood of CVST when compared to patients without TTS with thrombotic events after vaccination (odds ratio 13.8; 95% CI 2.0–97.3; I2 = 78%). The pooled mortality rates of TTS and TTS-associated CVST were 28% (95% CI 21%–36%) and 38% (95% CI 27%–49%), respectively. Thrombotic complications developed within 2 weeks of exposure to vector-based SARS-CoV-2 vaccines (mean interval 10 days; 95% CI 8–12) and affected predominantly women (69%; 95% CI 60%–77%) under age 45, even in the absence of prothrombotic risk factors.DiscussionApproximately half of patients with TTS present with CVST; almost one-third of patients with TTS do not survive. Further research is required to identify independent predictors of TTS following adenovirus vector-based vaccination.Registration InformationThe prespecified study protocol has been registered in the International Prospective Register of Ongoing Systematic Reviews PROSPERO (CRD42021250709).

Objective: To determine the persistence of human papillomavirus (HPV) infection following treatment of HPV-positive oropharyngeal squamous cell carcinoma (HPV + OPSCC). Methods: A cross-sectional study was undertaken at The Ottawa Hospital (Ottawa, ON, Canada), a tertiary academic hospital and regional cancer center. Adult patients who were diagnosed with HPV + OPSCC between the years of 2014 and 2016 and treated with curative intent, and who were alive and willing to consent were eligible for inclusion. A saliva assay was used to test for the presence of HPV DNA in a random sample of patients. qPCR was used to amplify DNA from saliva samples. Results: Saliva samples were obtained from 69 patients previously treated with HPV + OPSCC. All patients had a minimum of 2 years of follow-up. 5 patients tested positive for HPV: 2 were positive for HPV-16, 2 for HPV-18, and 1 “other” HPV type. No patient in our study cohort had suffered recurrence post-treatment. Conclusions: This study is the first to demonstrate the prevalence of persistent oncogenic HPV DNA in saliva following treatment for HPV + OPSCC. This prevalence appears to be low, despite the fact that persistent HPV infection is a precursor for the development of HPV + OPSCC. This finding raises questions about what factors influence the clearance or persistence of HPV DNA in saliva after treatment for HPV + OPSCC, and may add to our understanding about the longitudinal effects of HPV infection in these cancers.

Background Breast reconstruction is an option for women undergoing mastectomy for breast cancer. Previous studies have reported underutilization of reconstructive surgery. This study aims to examine the role demographic, clinical and socio-economic factors may have on patients’ decisions to undergo breast reconstruction. Methods We analyzed data from our institutional database. Using multivariable and multinomial logistic regression, we compared breast cancer patients who had undergone mastectomy-only to those who had immediate breast reconstruction (overall and by type of reconstruction). Results We analyzed data on 1459 women who underwent mastectomy during the period 2003–2015. Of these, 475 (32.6%) underwent mastectomy-only and 984 (67.4%) also underwent immediate breast reconstruction. After adjusting for potential confounders, older age (OR = 0.18, 95%CI:0.08–0.40), Asian race (OR = 0.29, 95%CI:0.19–0.45), bilateral mastectomy (OR = 0.71, 95%CI:0.56–0.90), and higher stage of disease (OR = 0.44, 95%CI:0.26–0.74) were independent risk factors for not receiving immediate breast reconstruction. Furthermore, patients with Medicare or Medicaid insurance were less likely than patients with private insurance to receive an autologous reconstruction. There was no evidence for changes over time in the way socio-demographic and clinical factors were related to receiving immediate breast reconstruction after mastectomy. Conclusions Clinical characteristics, sociodemographic factors like age, race and insurance coverage affect the decision for reconstructive surgery following mastectomy.

Objectives:The current study aimed to develop a modified Mediterranean diet (MMD) score adjusted to the southern Mediterranean countries’ cultural specificities and to evaluate associations between adherence to this modified score and overweight/obesity risk in Moroccan adults.Design:Population-based cross-sectional study.Setting:Rural and urban areas of the five greatest provinces of Morocco.Participants:In total, 1516 participants were recruited between September 2009 and February 2017. Dietary assessment was obtained using a validated Moroccan FFQ. We constructed a MMD score focusing on twelve components. The MMD score ranged from 0 (no adherence to the traditional southern Mediterranean diet (MD)) to 12 (maximal adherence) and was categorised as low (scores 0–4), moderate (scores 5–7) and high (scores 8–12).Results:Among the whole population, 754 (50·5 %) were women and 738 (49·5 %) were men, and the mean age was about 55·60 ± 13·70. In total, 58 % of participants were moderately active. Regarding educational level, 50·7 % were illiterate. The prevalence of overweight and obesity was 43·3 and 8·6 %, respectively. In multivariate analyses, close adherence to MMD (scores 8–12) was associated with reduced overweight/obesity risk (OR 0·61, 95 % CI 0·44, 0·84).Conclusion:The prevalence of overweight and obesity was very high among Moroccan adults. Adherence to the traditional southern MD may help prevent overweight and obesity.

A low intake of fruits and vegetables is a risk factor for gastric cancer, although there is uncertainty regarding the magnitude of the associations. In our study, the relationship between fruits and vegetables intake and gastric cancer was assessed, complementing a previous work on the association betweenconsumption of citrus fruits and gastric cancer. Data from 25 studies (8456 cases and 21 133 controls) with information on fruits and/or vegetables intake were used. A two-stage approach based on random-effects models was used to pool study-specific adjusted (sex, age and the main known risk factors for gastric cancer) odds ratios (ORs) and the corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CIs). Exposure-response relations, including linear and nonlinear associations, were modeled using one- and two-order fractional polynomials. Gastric cancer risk was lower for a higher intake of fruits (OR: 0.76, 95% CI: 0.64-0.90), noncitrus fruits (OR: 0.86, 95% CI: 0.73-1.02), vegetables (OR: 0.68, 95% CI: 0.56-0.84), and fruits and vegetables (OR: 0.61, 95% CI: 0.49-0.75); results were consistent across sociodemographic and lifestyles categories, as well as study characteristics. Exposure-response analyses showed an increasingly protective effect of portions/day of fruits (OR: 0.64, 95% CI: 0.57-0.73 for six portions), noncitrus fruits (OR: 0.71, 95% CI: 0.61-0.83 for six portions) and vegetables (OR: 0.51, 95% CI: 0.43-0.60 for 10 portions). A protective effect of all fruits, noncitrus fruits and vegetables was confirmed, supporting further dietary recommendations to decrease the burden of gastric cancer., The authors thank the European Cancer Prevention (ECP) Organiza- tion for providing support for the project meetings. Our study is supported by the Associazione Italiana per la Ricerca sul Cancro (AIRC), Project no. 21378 (Investigator Grant), the Italian Ministry of Health (Young Researchers, GR-2011-02347943 to SB) and the Italian League for the Fight against Cancer (LILT). This project was also supported by FEDER through the Operational Programme Competi- tiveness and Internationalization and national funding from the Foun- dation for Science and Technology - FCT (Portuguese Ministry of Science, Technology and Higher Education) under the Unidade de Investigaç ~ ao em Epidemiologia - Instituto de Saúde Pública da Universidade do Porto (EPIUnit) (UIDB/04750/2020). AF (PD/BD/ 105823/2014) was awarded with an individual scholarship through national funding from FCT/MCTES. Individual grants attributed to ARC (SFRH/BD/102181/2014) and BP (SFRH/BPD/108751/2015) were funded by the FCT and the “ Programa Operacional Capital Humano ” (POCH/FSE). SM was funded under the project “ NEON-PC - Neuro-oncological complications of prostate cancer: longitudinal study of cognitive decline “ (POCI-01-0145-FEDER-032358; Ref. PTDC/SAU-EPI/32358/2017). We also thank all MCC-Spain study collaborators (CIBERESP, ISCIII, ISGlobal, ICO, University of Huelva, University of Oviedo, University of Cantabria, University of León, Granada, Instituto Salud Pública de Navarra, FISABIO, Murcia Regional Health Authority and collaborators). The funding source had no role in the study design; collection, analysis and interpretation of data; in the writing of the report; and in the decision to submit the article for publication.

Objective Colchicine has been utilized safely in a variety of cardiovascular clinical conditions. Among its potential mechanisms of action is the non-selective inhibition of NLRP3 inflammasome which is thought to be a major pathophysiologic component in the clinical course of patients with COVID-19. GRECCO-19 will be a prospective, randomized, open-labeled, controlled study to assess the effects of colchicine in COVID-19 complications prevention. Methods Patients with laboratory confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection (under RT PCR) and clinical picture that involves temperature >37.5 oC and at least two out of the: i. sustained coughing, ii. sustained throat pain, iii. Anosmia and/or ageusia, iv. fatigue/tiredness, v. PaO2, Graphical abstract Image 1

Background: Prior epidemiologic studies on the association between diabetes and gastric cancer risk provided inconclusive findings, while traditional, aggregate data meta-analyses were characterized by high between-study heterogeneity. Objective: To investigate the association between type 2 diabetes and gastric cancer using data from the ‘Stomach Cancer Pooling (StoP) Project’, an international consortium of more than 30 case–control and nested case–control studies, which is large and provides harmonized definition of participants’ characteristics across individual studies. The data have the potential to minimize between-study heterogeneity and provide greater statistical power for subgroup analysis. Methods: We included 5592 gastric cancer cases and 12 477 controls from 14 studies from Europe, Asia, North America, and South America in a two-stage individual-participant data meta-analysis. Random-effect models were used to estimate summary odds ratios (ORs) and their corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CIs) by pooling study-specific ORs. Results: We did not find an overall association between diabetes and gastric cancer (pooled OR = 1.01, 95% CI, 0.94–1.07). However, the risk of cardia gastric cancer was significantly higher among individuals with type 2 diabetes (OR = 1.16, 95% CI, 1.02–1.33). There was no association between diabetes and gastric cancer risk in strata of Helicobacter pylori infection serostatus, age, sex, BMI, smoking status, alcohol consumption, fruit/vegetable intake, gastric cancer histologic type, and source of controls. Conclusion: This study provides additional evidence that diabetes is unrelated to gastric cancer overall but may be associated with excess cardia gastric cancer risk. This work was supported by Associazione Italiana per la Ricerca sul Cancro (AIRC), Project no. 21378 (Investigator Grant); Fondazione Italiana per la Ricerca sul Cancro (FIRC); Italian League for the Fight Against Cancer (LILT); European Cancer Prevention (ECP) Organization; and University of Pittsburgh Medical Center (UPMC) Start-up Grant (to H.N.L.). Sí

Being responsible for almost 12% of cancers worldwide, viruses are among the oldest known and most prevalent oncogenic agents. The quality of the evidence for the in vivo tumorigenic potential of microorganisms varies, thus accordingly, viruses were classified in 4 evidence-based categories by the International Agency for Research on Cancer in 2009. Since then, our understanding of the role of viruses in cancer has significantly improved, firstly due to the emergence of high throughput sequencing technologies that allowed the “brute-force” recovery of unknown viral genomes. At the same time, multi-omics approaches unravelled novel virus-host interactions in stem-cell biology. We now know that viral elements, either exogenous or endogenous, have multiple sometimes conflicting roles in human pathophysiology and the development of cancer. Here we integrate emerging evidence on viral causality in human cancer from basic mechanisms to clinical studies. We analyze viral tumorigenesis under the scope of deep-in-time human-virus evolutionary relationships and critically comment on the evidence through the eyes of clinical epidemiology, firstly by reviewing recognized oncoviruses and their mechanisms of inducing tumorigenesis, and then by examining the potential role of integrated viruses in our genome in the process of carcinogenesis.

Context Randomized controlled trials (RCTs) testing supplementation with eicosapentaenoic (EPA) and docosahexaenoic (DHA) fatty acids have failed to provide evidence supporting a suggested inverse association between fish intake and dementia risk. Objective Dose–response analyses were conducted to evaluate associations between fish intake, all-cause dementia or Alzheimer’s Disease (AD), and the effect of EPA/DHA supplementation on cognitive performance. Data Sources PubMed, Scopus and Web of Science databases were searched for original research evaluating either associations between fish intake and dementia or AD, or the impact of EPA and/or DHA supplementation on the risk of cognitive decline. Data Extraction Data were collected on study characteristics and methods; number of cases/deaths (for observational studies); categories of exposure; model covariates; risk estimates from the most-adjusted model; type and dosage of supplementation (from RCTs); fatty acid levels in blood; and differences in cognition test results before and after supplementation. Risk of bias was assessed through the ROBINS-E and RoB2.0 tools for observational and experimental studies, respectively. Data Analysis Weighted mixed-effects models were applied, allowing for the inclusion of studies with 2 levels of exposure. Based on findings with low/moderate risk of bias, fish intake of up to 2 portions (250 g) per week was associated with a 10% reduction (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.79, 1.02, Ν = 5) in all-cause dementia and a 30% reduction (95% CI: 0.54, 0.89, Ν = 3) in AD risk. Changes in EPA and DHA body status had a positive impact on participants’ executive functions, but not on their overall cognitive performance. Conclusion The protection offered by fish intake against cognitive decline levels off at intakes higher than 2 portions/week and likely relates to the impact of EPA and DHA on the individual’s executive functions, although there remain questions about the mechanisms linking the short- and long-term effects. Systematic Review Registration PROSPERO registration no. CRD42019139528.

Funder: Department of Health, Funder: Medical Research Council, BackgroundTargeted obesity prevention policies would benefit from the identification of population groups with the highest risk of weight gain. The relative importance of adult age, sex, ethnicity, geographical region, and degree of social deprivation on weight gain is not known. We aimed to identify high-risk groups for changes in weight and BMI using electronic health records (EHR).MethodsIn this longitudinal, population-based cohort study we used linked EHR data from 400 primary care practices (via the Clinical Practice Research Datalink) in England, accessed via the CALIBER programme. Eligible participants were aged 18-74 years, were registered at a general practice clinic, and had BMI and weight measurements recorded between Jan 1, 1998, and June 30, 2016, during the period when they had eligible linked data with at least 1 year of follow-up time. We calculated longitudinal changes in BMI over 1, 5, and 10 years, and investigated the absolute risk and odds ratios (ORs) of transitioning between BMI categories (underweight, normal weight, overweight, obesity class 1 and 2, and severe obesity [class 3]), as defined by WHO. The associations of demographic factors with BMI transitions were estimated by use of logistic regression analysis, adjusting for baseline BMI, family history of cardiovascular disease, use of diuretics, and prevalent chronic conditions.FindingsWe included 2 092 260 eligible individuals with more than 9 million BMI measurements in our study. Young adult age was the strongest risk factor for weight gain at 1, 5, and 10 years of follow-up. Compared with the oldest age group (65-74 years), adults in the youngest age group (18-24 years) had the highest OR (4·22 [95% CI 3·86-4·62]) and greatest absolute risk (37% vs 24%) of transitioning from normal weight to overweight or obesity at 10 years. Likewise, adults in the youngest age group with overweight or obesity at baseline were also at highest risk to transition to a higher BMI category; OR 4·60 (4·06-5·22) and absolute risk (42% vs 18%) of transitioning from overweight to class 1 and 2 obesity, and OR 5·87 (5·23-6·59) and absolute risk (22% vs 5%) of transitioning from class 1 and 2 obesity to class 3 obesity. Other demographic factors were consistently less strongly associated with these transitions; for example, the OR of transitioning from normal weight to overweight or obesity in people living in the most socially deprived versus least deprived areas was 1·23 (1·18-1·27), for men versus women was 1·12 (1·08-1·16), and for Black individuals versus White individuals was 1·13 (1·04-1·24). We provide an open access online risk calculator, and present high-resolution obesity risk charts over a 1-year, 5-year, and 10-year follow-up period.InterpretationA radical shift in policy is required to focus on individuals at the highest risk of weight gain (ie, young adults aged 18-24 years) for individual-level and population-level prevention of obesity and its long-term consequences for health and health care.FundingThe British Hearth Foundation, Health Data Research UK, the UK Medical Research Council, and the National Institute for Health Research.

Supplemental Digital Content is available in the text., Background: Cross-sectional measures of body mass index (BMI) are associated with cardiovascular disease (CVD) incidence, but less is known about whether weight change affects the risk of CVD. Methods: We estimated the effect of 2-y weight change interventions on 7-y risk of CVD (CVD death, myocardial infarction, stroke, hospitalization from coronary heart disease, and heart failure) by emulating hypothetical interventions using electronic health records. We identified 138,567 individuals with 45–69 years of age without chronic disease in England from 1998 to 2016. We performed pooled logistic regression, using inverse-probability weighting to adjust for baseline and time-varying confounders. We categorized each individual into a weight loss, maintenance, or gain group. Results: Among those of normal weight, both weight loss [risk difference (RD) vs. weight maintenance = 1.5% (0.3% to 3.0%)] and gain [RD = 1.3% (0.5% to 2.2%)] were associated with increased risk for CVD compared with weight maintenance. Among overweight individuals, we observed moderately higher risk of CVD in both the weight loss [RD = 0.7% (−0.2% to 1.7%)] and the weight gain group [RD = 0.7% (−0.1% to 1.7%)], compared with maintenance. In the obese, those losing weight showed lower risk of coronary heart disease [RD = −1.4% (−2.4% to −0.6%)] but not of stroke. When we assumed that chronic disease occurred 1–3 years before the recorded date, estimates for weight loss and gain were attenuated among overweight individuals; estimates for loss were lower among obese individuals. Conclusion: Among individuals with obesity, the weight-loss group had a lower risk of coronary heart disease but not of stroke. Weight gain was associated with increased risk of CVD across BMI groups. See video abstract at, http://links.lww.com/EDE/B838.

Supplemental Digital Content is available in the text., Background and Purpose: We systematically evaluated the impact of the coronavirus 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic on stroke care across the world. Methods: Observational studies comparing characteristics, acute treatment delivery, or hospitalization outcomes between patients with stroke admitted during the COVID-19 pandemic and those admitted before the pandemic were identified by Medline, Scopus, and Embase databases search. Random-effects meta-analyses were conducted for all outcomes. Results: We identified 46 studies including 129 491 patients. Patients admitted with stroke during the COVID-19 pandemic were found to be younger (mean difference, −1.19 [95% CI, −2.05 to −0.32]; I2=70%) and more frequently male (odds ratio, 1.11 [95% CI, 1.01–1.22]; I2=54%) compared with patients admitted with stroke in the prepandemic era. Patients admitted with stroke during the COVID-19 pandemic, also, had higher baseline National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale scores (mean difference, 0.55 [95% CI, 0.12–0.98]; I2=90%), higher probability for large vessel occlusion presence (odds ratio, 1.63 [95% CI, 1.07–2.48]; I2=49%) and higher risk for in-hospital mortality (odds ratio, 1.26 [95% CI, 1.05–1.52]; I2=55%). Patients with acute ischemic stroke admitted during the COVID-19 pandemic had higher probability of receiving endovascular thrombectomy treatment (odds ratio, 1.24 [95% CI, 1.05–1.47]; I2=40%). No difference in the rates of intravenous thrombolysis administration or difference in time metrics regarding onset to treatment time for intravenous thrombolysis and onset to groin puncture time for endovascular thrombectomy were detected. Conclusions: The present systematic review and meta-analysis indicates an increased prevalence of younger patients, more severe strokes attributed to large vessel occlusion, and higher endovascular treatment rates during the COVID-19 pandemic. Patients admitted with stroke during the COVID-19 pandemic had higher in-hospital mortality. These findings need to be interpreted with caution in view of discrepant reports and heterogeneity being present across studies.

The mRNA vaccine BNT162b2 has proven highly effective and currently many millions are being vaccinated. There are limited and conflicting data from immunogenicity studies on the effects of age, gender, vaccination side effects (VSE), risk factors for severe COVID-19 (RFS-COV), obesity (BMI) and previous SARS-CoV-2 (Pr-CoV) Moreover, immunogenicity data from COVID-19 patients comparing various disease categories of natural infection i.e. asymptomatic vs mild vs moderate vs severe infection are sparse, and include limited number of individuals.This study included 871 vaccinated health care workers (HCW) and 181 patients with natural infection. Immunogenicity was assessed by a quantative assay measuring anti-SARS-CoV-2 against the RBD domain of the spike protein (anti-RBD) and anti-SARS-CoV-2 against nucleocapsid protein (anti-N). Samples were collected 1-2 weeks after completion of the 2nd dose in the vaccinated HCWs and 15-59 days post symptoms onset in patients with natural infection.The concentration of anti-RBD in vaccinated individuals after multivariable analysis was significantly associated with age, gender, VSE and Pr-CoV. Specifically, anti-RBD median levels (95% CI) were lower by 2,466 (651-5,583), 6,228 (3,254-9,203) and 7,651 (4,479-10,823) AU/ml in 35-44, 45-54, 55-70 yrs respectively, compared with 18-34 yrs group. In females, median levels of anti-RBD were higher by 2,823 (859-4,787) compared with males, in individuals with VSE were higher by 5,024 (3,122-6,926) compared with no VSE, and in HCWs with Pr-CoV were higher by 9,971 (5,158-14,783) AU/ml compared with HCWs without Pr-CoV.Among individuals with natural infection, the median anti-RBD levels were 14.8 times higher in patients with critical COVID-19 infection compared with non-hospitalized individuals. The ratio of anti-RBD in vaccinated individuals versus those with natural infection varied from 1.0 up to 19.4 according to the clinical subgroup of natural infection.This study proves the high immunogenicity of BNT162b2 vaccine although its sustainability remains to be seen. The use of comparative data from natural infection serological panels, expressing the clinical heterogeneity of natural infection may facilitate early decisions for vaccine evaluation in clinical trials.

L.K. is a fellow in the Canadian Institutes of Health Research (CIHR) Strategic Training in Advanced Genetic Epidemiology (STAGE) programme and is supported by the CIHR Doctoral Research Award from the Frederick Banting and Charles Best Canada Graduate Scholarships (GSD-137441). Transdisciplinary Research for Cancer in Lung (TRICL) of the International Lung Cancer Consortium (ILCCO) was supported by the National Institutes of Health (U19-CA148127, CA148127S1). Genotyping for the TRICL-ILCCO OncoArray was supported by in-kind genotyping at Centre for Inherited Disease Research (CIDR) (26820120008i-0–6800068-1). Genotyping for the Head and Neck Cancer OncoArray performed at CIDR was funded by the US National Institute of Dental and Craniofacial Research (NIDCR) grant 1X01HG007780–0. CAPUA study was supported by FIS-FEDER/Spain grant numbers FIS-01/310, FIS-PI03–0365 and FIS-07-BI060604, FICYT/Asturias grant numbers FICYT PB02–67 and FICYT IB09–133, and the University Institute of Oncology (IUOPA), of the University of Oviedo and the Ciber de Epidemiologia y Salud Publica. CIBERESP, SPAIN. The work performed in the CARET study was supported by the National Institute of Health (NIH)/National Cancer Institute (NCI): UM1 CA167462 (PI: Goodman), National Institute of Health UO1-CA6367307 (PIs Omen, Goodman); National Institute of Health R01 CA111703 (PI Chen), National Institute of Health 5R01 CA151989 (PI Doherty). The Liverpool Lung Project is supported by the Roy Castle Lung Cancer Foundation. The Harvard Lung Cancer Study was supported by the NIH (National Cancer Institute) grants CA092824, CA090578 and CA074386. The Multiethnic Cohort Study was partially supported by NIH Grants CA164973, CA033619, CA63464 and CA148127. The work performed in MSH-PMH study was supported by the Canadian Cancer Society Research Institute (020214), Ontario Institute of Cancer and Cancer Care Ontario Chair Award to R.J.H. and G.L. and the Alan Brown Chair and Lusi Wong Programs at the Princess Margaret Hospital Foundation. The Norway study was supported by Norwegian Cancer Society, Norwegian Research Council. The work in TLC study has been supported in part the James & Esther King Biomedical Research Program (09KN-15), National Institutes of Health Specialized Programs of Research Excellence (SPORE) Grant (P50 CA119997) and by a Cancer Center Support Grant (CCSG) at the H. Lee Moffitt Cancer Center and Research Institute, an NCI designated Comprehensive Cancer Center (grant number P30-CA76292). The dataset(s) used for the analyses described were obtained from Vanderbilt University Medical Center’s BioVU, which is supported by institutional funding and by the Vanderbilt CTSA grant UL1 TR000445 from NCATS/NIH. Dr Melinda Aldrich is supported by the by NIH/National Cancer Institute 5K07CA172294. The Copenhagen General Population Study (CGPS) was supported by the Chief Physician Johan Boserup and Lise Boserup Fund, the Danish Medical Research Council and Herlev Hospital. The NELCS study: Grant Number P20RR018787 from the National Center for Research Resources (NCRR), a component of the National Institutes of Health (NIH). Kentucky Lung Cancer Research Initiative (KLCRI) was supported by the Department of Defense (Congressionally Directed Medical Research Program, U.S. Army Medical Research and Materiel Command Program) under award number: 10153006 (W81XWH-11–1-0781). Views and opinions of, and endorsements by the author(s) do not reflect those of the US Army or the Department of Defense. This research was also supported by unrestricted infrastructure funds from the UK Center for Clinical and Translational Science, NIH grant UL1TR000117 and Markey Cancer Center NCI Cancer Center Support Grant (P30 CA177558) Shared Resource Facilities: Cancer Research Informatics, Biospecimen and Tissue Procurement, and Biostatistics and Bioinformatics. The research undertaken by M.D.T., L.V.W. and M.S.A. was partly funded by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR). The views expressed are those of the author(s) and not necessarily those of the NHS, the NIHR or the Department of Health. M.D.T. holds a Medical Research Council Senior Clinical Fellowship (G0902313). The Tampa study was funded by Public Health Service grants P01-CA68384 and R01-DE13158 from the National Institutes of Health. The University of Pittsburgh head and neck cancer case–control study is supported by US National Institutes of Health grants P50 CA097190 and P30 CA047904. The Carolina Head and Neck Cancer Study (CHANCE) was supported by the National Cancer Institute (R01CA90731). The Head and Neck Genome Project (GENCAPO) was supported by the Fundacao de Amparo a Pesquisa do Estado de Sao Paulo (FAPESP; grants 04/12054–9 and 10/51168–0). The authors thank all the members of the GENCAPO team. This publication presents data from the Head and Neck 5000 study. The study was a component of independent research funded by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) under its Programme Grants for Applied Research scheme (RP-PG-0707–10034). The views expressed in this publication are those of the author(s) and not necessarily those of the NHS, the NIHR or the Department of Health. Human papillomavirus (HPV) serology was supported by a Cancer Research UK Programme Grant, the Integrative Cancer Epidemiology Programme (grant number: C18281/A19169). The Alcohol-Related Cancers and Genetic Susceptibility Study in Europe (ARCAGE) was funded by the European Commission’s fifth framework programme (QLK1– 2001-00182), the Italian Association for Cancer Research, Compagnia di San Paolo/FIRMS, Region Piemonte and Padova University (CPDA057222). The Rome Study was supported by the Associazione Italiana per la Ricerca sul Cancro (AIRC) awards IG 2011 10491 and IG 2013 14220 to S.B. and by Fondazione Veronesi to S.B. The IARC Latin American study was funded by the European Commission INCO-DC programme (IC18-CT97–0222), with additional funding from Fondo para la Investigacion Cientifica y Tecnologica (Argentina) and the Fundacao de Amparo a Pesquisa do Estado de Sao Paulo (01/01768–2). The IARC Central Europe study was supported by the European Commission’s INCO-COPERNICUS Program (IC15-CT98–0332), US NIH/National Cancer Institute grant CA92039 and World Cancer Research Foundation grant WCRF 99A28. The IARC Oral Cancer Multicenter study was funded by grant S06 96 202489 05F02 from Europe against Cancer; grants FIS 97/0024, FIS 97/0662 and BAE 01/5013 from Fondo de Investigaciones Sanitarias, Spain; the UICC Yamagiwa-Yoshida Memorial International Cancer Study; the National Cancer Institute of Canada; Associazione Italiana per la Ricerca sul Cancro; and the Pan-American Health Organization. Coordination of the EPIC study is financially supported by the European Commission (DG SANCO) and the International Agency for Research on Cancer.

Low socioeconomic position (SEP) is a strong risk factor for incidence and premature mortality from several cancers. Our study aimed at quantifying the association between SEP and gastric cancer (GC) risk through an individual participant data meta-analysis within the “Stomach cancer Pooling (StoP) Project”. Educational level and household income were used as proxies for the SEP. We estimated pooled odds ratios (ORs) and the corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CIs) across levels of education and household income by pooling study-specific ORs through random-effects meta-analytic models. The relative index of inequality (RII) was also computed. A total of 9,773 GC cases and 24,373 controls from 25 studies from Europe, Asia and America were included. The pooled OR for the highest compared to the lowest level of education was 0.60 (95% CI, 0.44–0.84), while the pooled RII was 0.45 (95% CI, 0.29–0.69). A strong inverse association was observed both for noncardia (OR 0.39, 95% CI, 0.22–0.70) and cardia GC (OR 0.47, 95% CI, 0.22–0.99). The relation was stronger among H. pylori negative subjects (RII 0.14, 95% CI, 0.04–0.48) as compared to H. pylori positive ones (RII 0.29, 95% CI, 0.10–0.84), in the absence of a significant interaction (p = 0.28). The highest household income category showed a pooled OR of 0.65 (95% CI, 0.48–0.89), while the corresponding RII was 0.40 (95% CI, 0.22–0.72). Our collaborative pooled-analysis showed a strong inverse relationship between SEP indicators and GC risk. Our data call for public health interventions to reduce GC risk among the more vulnerable groups of the population. This project was supported by the “Associazione Italiana per la Ricerca sul Cancro” (AIRC), Projects no. 16715 and 21378 (Investigator Grant), by the “Fondazione Italiana per la Ricerca sul Cancro” (FIRC) and by the Italian Ministry of Health (Young Researchers, GR-2011-02347943 to SB). MR is grateful to the FIRC who supported his work from 2015 to 2017. Our study was also funded by FEDER through the Operational Programme Competitiveness and Internationalization and national funding from the Foundation for Science and Technology – FCT (Portuguese Ministry of Science, Technology and Higher Education) under the Unidade de Investigação em Epidemiologia – Instituto de Saúde Pública da Universidade do Porto (EPIUnit; POCI-01-0145-FEDER-006862; Ref. UID/DTP/04750/2013). AF (PD/BD/105823/2014) was awarded an individual scholarship through national funding from FCT/MCTES.

Throughout the COVID-19 pandemic, countries relied on a variety of ad-hoc border control protocols to allow for non-essential travel while safeguarding public health: from quarantining all travellers to restricting entry from select nations based on population-level epidemiological metrics such as cases, deaths or testing positivity rates1,2. Here we report the design and performance of a reinforcement learning system, nicknamed ‘Eva’. In the summer of 2020, Eva was deployed across all Greek borders to limit the influx of asymptomatic travellers infected with SARS-CoV-2, and to inform border policies through real-time estimates of COVID-19 prevalence. In contrast to country-wide protocols, Eva allocated Greece’s limited testing resources based upon incoming travellers’ demographic information and testing results from previous travellers. By comparing Eva’s performance against modelled counterfactual scenarios, we show that Eva identified 1.85 times as many asymptomatic, infected travellers as random surveillance testing, with up to 2-4 times as many during peak travel, and 1.25-1.45 times as many asymptomatic, infected travellers as testing policies that only utilize epidemiological metrics. We demonstrate that this latter benefit arises, at least partially, because population-level epidemiological metrics had limited predictive value for the actual prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 among asymptomatic travellers and exhibited strong country-specific idiosyncrasies in the summer of 2020. Our results raise serious concerns on the effectiveness of country-agnostic internationally proposed border control policies3 that are based on population-level epidemiological metrics. Instead, our work represents a successful example of the potential of reinforcement learning and real-time data for safeguarding public health.

Background: Emerging data indicates an increased risk for cerebrovascular events with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) virus and highlights the potential impact of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) on the management and outcomes of acute stroke. We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis to evaluate the aforementioned considerations. Methods: We performed a meta-analysis of observational cohort studies reporting on the occurrence and/or outcomes of patients with cerebrovascular events in association with their SARS-CoV-2 infection status. We used a random-effects model. Summary estimates were reported as odds ratios (ORs) and corresponding 95% confidence intervals (95%CI). Results: We identified 16 cohort studies including 44,004 patients. Among patients with SARS-CoV-2, 1.3% (95%CI: 0.9-1.8%; I 2 =88%) were hospitalized for cerebrovascular events, 1.2% (95%CI: 0.8-1.5%; I 2 =85%) for ischemic stroke, and 0.2% (95%CI: 0.1-0.4%; I 2 =69%) for hemorrhagic stroke. Compared to non-infected contemporary or historical controls, patients with SARS-CoV-2 infection had increased odds of ischemic stroke (OR=3.58, 95%CI: 1.43-8.92; I 2 =43%) and cryptogenic stroke (OR=3.98, 95%CI: 1.62-9.77; I 2 =0%). Odds for in-hospital mortality were higher among SARS-CoV-2 stroke patients compared to non-infected contemporary or historical stroke patients (OR=5.60, 95%CI: 3.19-9.80; I 2 =45%). SARS-CoV-2 infection status was not associated to the likelihood of receiving intravenous thrombolysis (OR=1.42, 95%CI: 0.65-3.10; I 2 =0%) or endovascular thrombectomy (OR=0.78, 95%CI: 0.35-1.74; I 2 =0%) among hospitalized ischemic stroke patients during the COVID-19 pandemic. Diabetes mellitus was found to be more prevalent among SARS-CoV-2 stroke patients compared to non-infected contemporary or historical controls (OR=1.39, 95%CI: 1.04-1.86; I 2 =0%). Conclusion: SARS-CoV-2 appears to be associated with an increased risk of ischemic stroke, particularly the cryptogenic subtype. SARS-CoV-2 infection in stroke substantially increases the mortality risk.

International audience; Objective: Emerging data indicate an increased risk of cerebrovascular events with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) and highlight the potential impact of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) on the management and outcomes of acute stroke. We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis to evaluate the aforementioned considerations.Methods: We performed a meta-analysis of observational cohort studies reporting on the occurrence and/or outcomes of patients with cerebrovascular events in association with their SARS-CoV-2 infection status. We used a random-effects model. Summary estimates were reported as odds ratios (ORs) and corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CIs).Results: We identified 18 cohort studies including 67,845 patients. Among patients with SARS-CoV-2, 1.3% (95% CI = 0.9-1.6%, I2 = 87%) were hospitalized for cerebrovascular events, 1.1% (95% CI = 0.8-1.3%, I2 = 85%) for ischemic stroke, and 0.2% (95% CI = 0.1-0.3%, I2 = 64%) for hemorrhagic stroke. Compared to noninfected contemporary or historical controls, patients with SARS-CoV-2 infection had increased odds of ischemic stroke (OR = 3.58, 95% CI = 1.43-8.92, I2 = 43%) and cryptogenic stroke (OR = 3.98, 95% CI = 1.62-9.77, I2 = 0%). Diabetes mellitus was found to be more prevalent among SARS-CoV-2 stroke patients compared to noninfected historical controls (OR = 1.39, 95% CI = 1.00-1.94, I2 = 0%). SARS-CoV-2 infection status was not associated with the likelihood of receiving intravenous thrombolysis (OR = 1.42, 95% CI = 0.65-3.10, I2 = 0%) or endovascular thrombectomy (OR = 0.78, 95% CI = 0.35-1.74, I2 = 0%) among hospitalized ischemic stroke patients during the COVID-19 pandemic. Odds of in-hospital mortality were higher among SARS-CoV-2 stroke patients compared to noninfected contemporary or historical stroke patients (OR = 5.60, 95% CI = 3.19-9.80, I2 = 45%).Interpretation: SARS-CoV-2 appears to be associated with an increased risk of ischemic stroke, and potentially cryptogenic stroke in particular. It may also be related to an increased mortality risk. ANN NEUROL 2021;89:380-388.

BackgroundAdult obesity prevention policies, which are largely untargeted, have met with limited success globally. Population groups with the highest risk of weight gain, if they could be reliably identified using readily available information, might benefit from targeted policy. The relative importance of age, sex, ethnicity, geographical region and social deprivation for weight gain is unknown.MethodsWe calculated longitudinal changes in BMI over one, five and ten years and investigated transition between BMI categories using 11,187,383 clinically recorded, repeated measures of BMI from population-based electronic health records of 2,328,477 adults in England (1998-2016). The influence of risk factors was tested using logistic regression.FindingsThe youngest adult age group (18-24 years) was more strongly associated with risk of weight gain than older age, male sex, socioeconomic deprivation, ethnicity or geographic region. Among the youngest adults, the top quartile gained 15.9kg in men and 12kg in women at 10 years. The odds of transitioning to a higher BMI category over 10 years were 4-6 times higher in the youngest (18-24 years) compared to oldest (65-74 years) individuals; odds ratio (95% confidence interval) 4.22 (3.85-4.62)) from normal weight to overweight or obesity, 4.60 (4.06-5.22) for overweight to obesity, and 5.87 (5.23-6.59) from obesity to severe obesity in multiple adjusted analyses. Among the youngest adults, socially deprived men were at greater risk of transitioning from normal weight to overweight (72%) and from overweight to obesity (68%) over 10 years. We provide an open access online risk calculator (https://pasea.shinyapps.io/bmi_shiny_app/) and present high resolution obesity risk charts over a 1-, 5- and 10-year follow-up.InterpretationA radical shift in policy is required to focus on those at highest risk of weight gain-young adults-for individual and population level prevention of obesity and its long-term consequences for health and health care.FundingBHF, HDR-UK, MRC

Objective This study aimed to evaluate and quantify the relationship between coffee and gastric cancer using a uniquely large dataset from an international consortium of observational studies on gastric cancer, including data from 18 studies, for a total of 8198 cases and 21 419 controls. Methods A two-stage approach was used to obtain the pooled odds ratios (ORs) and the corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for coffee drinkers versus never or rare drinkers. A one-stage logistic mixed-effects model with a random intercept for each study was used to estimate the dose-response relationship. Estimates were adjusted for sex, age and the main recognized risk factors for gastric cancer. Results Compared to never or rare coffee drinkers, the estimated pooled OR for coffee drinkers was 1.03 (95% CI, 0.94-1.13). When the amount of coffee intake was considered, the pooled ORs were 0.91 (95% CI, 0.81-1.03) for drinkers of 1-2 cups per day, 0.95 (95% CI, 0.82-1.10) for 3-4 cups, and 0.95 (95% CI, 0.79-1.15) for five or more cups. An OR of 1.20 (95% CI, 0.91-1.58) was found for heavy coffee drinkers (seven or more cups of caffeinated coffee per day). A positive association emerged for high coffee intake (five or more cups per day) for gastric cardia cancer only. Conclusions These findings better quantify the previously available evidence of the absence of a relevant association between coffee consumption and gastric cancer.

Background Because birth size appears to be positively associated with breast cancer risk, we have studied whether this risk may differ according to molecular breast cancer subtypes. Methods A cohort of 22,931 women born 1920–1966 were followed up for breast cancer occurrence from 1961 to 2012, and 870 were diagnosed during follow-up. Archival diagnostic material from 537 patients was available to determine molecular breast cancer subtype, specified as Luminal A, Luminal B (human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 (HER2)-), Luminal B (HER2+), HER2 type, and Triple negative (TN) breast cancer. Information on the women’s birth weight, birth length and head circumference at birth was used to estimate hazard ratios (HR) with 95% confidence intervals (CI) for each molecular subtype, applying Cox regression, and stratified by maternal height. Results Birth length (per 2 cm increments) was positively associated with Luminal A (HR = 1.2, 95% CI, 1.0–1.3), Luminal B (HER2+) (HR = 1.3, 95% CI, 1.0–1.7), and TN breast cancer (HR = 1.4, 95% CI, 1.0–1.9). No clear association was found for birth weight and head circumference. The positive associations of birth length were restricted to women whose mothers were relatively tall (above population median). Conclusion We found a positive association of birth length with risk of Luminal A, Luminal B (HER2+) and TN breast cancer that appears to be restricted to women whose mothers were relatively tall. This may support the hypothesis that breast cancer risk is influenced by determinants of longitudinal growth and that this finding deserves further scrutiny.

On July 1st, 2020, members of the European Union gradually lifted earlier COVID-19 restrictions on non-essential travel. In response, we designed and deployed “Eva” – a novel, self-learning artificial intelligence system – across all Greek borders to identify asymptomatic travelers infected with SARS-CoV-2 based on demographic characteristics and results from previously tested travelers. Eva allocates Greece’s limited testing resources to (i) limit the importation of new cases and (ii) provide real-time estimates of COVID-19 prevalence to inform border policies. Counterfactual analysis shows that our system identified on average 1.85x as many asymptomatic, infected travelers as random surveillance testing, and up to 2-4x as many during peak travel. Moreover, for most countries, Eva identified atypically high prevalence 9-days earlier than machine learning systems based on publicly reported data. By adaptively adjusting border policies 9-days earlier, Eva prevented additional infected travelers from arriving. Finally, using Eva’s unique cross-country, large-scale dataset on prevalence in asymptomatic populations, we show that commonly used public data on cases/deaths/testing have limited predictive value for the actual prevalence among asymptomatic travelers, and furthermore exhibit strong country-specific idiosyncrasies. As herd immunity is still likely more than a year away, and travel protocols for the summer of 2021 are still being discussed, our insights raise serious concerns about internationally proposed border control policies that are both country-agnostic and solely based on public data. Instead, our work paves the way for leveraging AI and real-time data for public health goals, such as border control during a pandemic.

Although there is a clear relationship between family history (FH) and the risk of gastric cancer (GC), quantification is still needed in relation to different histological types and anatomical sites, and in strata of covariates. The objective was to analyze the risk of GC according to first-degree FH in a uniquely large epidemiological consortium of GC. This investigation includes 5946 cases and 12,776 controls from 17 studies of the Stomach Cancer Pooling (StoP) Project consortium. Summary odds ratios (OR) and the corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were calculated by pooling study-specific ORs using fixed-effect model meta-analysis techniques. Stratified analyses were carried out by sex, age, tumor location and histological type, smoking habit, socioeconomic status, alcohol intake and fruit consumption. The pooled OR for GC was 1.84 (95% CI: 1.64–2.04, I2 = 6.1%, P heterogeneity = 0.383) in subjects with vs. those without first-degree relatives with GC. No significant differences were observed among subgroups of sex, age, geographic area or study period. Associations tended to be stronger for non-cardia (OR = 1.82, 95% CI: 1.59–2.05 for subjects with FH) than for cardia GC (OR = 1.38, 95% CI: 0.98–1.77), and for the intestinal (OR = 1.92, 95% CI: 1.62–2.23) than for the diffuse histotype (OR = 1.62, 95% CI: 1.28–1.96). This analysis confirms the effect of FH on the risk of GC, reporting an approximately doubled risk, and provides further quantification of the risk of GC according to the subsite and histotype. Considering these findings, accounting for the presence of FH to carry out correct prevention and diagnosis measures is of the utmost importance.