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Background: The country of Kiribati is a small Pacific island nation which had a new case detection rate of 191 per 100,000 in 2016, and is one of the few countries yet to reach the WHO leprosy elimination goal. Chemoprophylaxis of household contacts of new cases, or to the whole population in a highly endemic areas have been found to be effective in reducing new case rates. This study investigated the potential impact of different chemoprophylaxis strategies on future cases in South Tarawa, the main population centre of Kiribati. Methodology: The microsimulation model SIMCOLEP was calibrated to simulate the South Tarawa population and past leprosy control activities, and replicate annual new cases from 1989 to 2016. The impact of six different strategies for delivering one round of single dose rifampicin (SDR) chemoprophylaxis to household contacts of new cases and/or one or three rounds of SDR to the whole population was modelled from 2017 to 2030. Principal Findings: Our model predicted that continuing the existing control program of high levels of public awareness, passive case detection, and treatment with multidrug treatment would lead to a substantial reduction in cases but this was less effective than all modelled intervention scenarios. Mass chemoprophylaxis led to a faster initial decline in cases than household contact chemoprophylaxis alone, however the decline under the latter was sustained for longer. The greatest cumulative impact was for household contact chemoprophylaxis with three rounds of mass chemoprophylaxis at one-year intervals. Conclusions: The results suggest that control of leprosy would be achieved most rapidly with a combination of intensive population-based and household chemoprophylaxis. These findings may be generalisable to other countries where crowding places social contacts as well as household contacts of cases at risk of developing leprosy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Undernutrition, an important indicator for monitoring progress of development goals, is a matter of concern in many developing countries, including Bangladesh. Despite regional differences in chronic undernutrition in Bangladesh, regional determinants among children under the age of five were not extensively explored. Data and methods: Using combined repeated cross-sectional nationwide Bangladesh Demographic and Health Surveys (BDHS 2011 and 2014) and employing bivariate and logistic regression analyses, we estimated prevalence, changes and variations in regional determinants of stunting among children aged 6–59 months over two time periods 2011 and 2014. Results: Our benchmark results suggested that the children from Rajshahi, Khulna, Rangpur, Chittagong and Dhaka tend to be significantly less stunted by 51% (p = 0.000; CI = [0.38, 0.63]), 44% (p = 0.000; CI = [0.44, 0.71]), 26% (p = 0.012; CI = [0.58, 0.93]), 23% (p = 0.012; CI = [0.62, 0.95]) and 22% (p = 0.033; [0.63, 0.97]) respectively, against Sylhet in 2011. With the exception of Dhaka, no region showed significant differences in the odds of stunting over two time periods 2011 and 2014, i.e. only Dhaka revealed significant difference by 30% reductions in the odds of stunting in 2014. Also, rural children were less likely to be stunted (by 19%) of the urban counterparts. Regional covariates of stunting differ. However, children’s age, household wealth, mother’s height, and parental education were important determinants of stunting in Bangladesh. Conclusion: Dhaka made an impressive improvement in child nutrition, thus contributed largely to the reduction of stunting levels in Bangladesh for 2014 over 2011. Sylhet and Barisal require strong push to improve nutritional status of children. Further decline is possible through region-specific multipronged interventions that can address area-specific covariates to break the cycle of undernutrition like strengthening economic and educational status, emphasizing the role of father to augment their knowledge in varying aspects like family planning, reduction of fertility and by improving mother’s health. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Children attending kindergarten are at high risk for contracting infections, for which hand hygiene (HH) has been recognized as the most cost-effective prevention measure globally. Kindergarten teachers’ HH behavior plays a vital role in encouraging favorable hygiene techniques and environment. This study aims to evaluate the effectiveness of a multimodal intervention at changing kindergarten teachers’ HH behavior and social cognitive factors that influences HH behavior in China. The intervention named “Clean Hands, Happy Life” includes HH products with refills, reminders and cues for action, a kick-off event with awards, and training programs. We evaluated the intervention using a self-administrative questionnaire with a stratified random sample of 12 kindergartens. Two surveys was completed by 176 teachers at baseline and 185 after the 6-month intervention. Compared with the baseline scores, there was a significant improvement in the overall self-reported HH compliance of teachers (9.38 vs. 9.68 out of 10, p = 0.006), as well as teachers’ perceived disease susceptibility, disease severity and behavioral control after the intervention (p<0.05). We found that teachers’ HH compliance was likely to be higher among those who have better HH guideline awareness (β = 0.48, p<0.01) and perceived behavioral control (β = 0.26, p = 0.01), which explained 24.2% of the variance of self-reported compliance of teachers at baseline. The assessed intervention may provide Chinese kindergarten teachers with behavioral skills and cognitions that associated with the compliance of HH behavior. We thus recommend future intervention studies consider our HH behavior change techniques, address multiple social cognitive determinants of HH behavior and include the change of targeted influences in the impact evaluation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Introduction: Timely notification of infectious diseases is crucial for prompt response by public health services. Adequate notification systems facilitate timely notification. A systematic literature review was performed to assess outcomes of studies on notification timeliness and to determine which aspects of notification systems are associated with timely notification. Methodology: Articles reviewing timeliness of notifications published between 2000 and 2017 were searched in Pubmed and Scopus. Using a standardized notification chain, timeliness of reporting system for each article was defined as either sufficient (≥ 80% notifications in time), partly sufficient (≥ 50–80%), or insufficient (< 50%) according to the article’s predefined timeframe, a standardized timeframe for all articles, and a disease specific timeframe. Electronic notification systems were compared with conventional methods (postal mail, fax, telephone, email) and mobile phone reporting. Results: 48 articles were identified. In almost one third of the studies with a predefined timeframe (39), timeliness of notification systems was either sufficient or insufficient (11/39, 28% and 12/39, 31% resp.). Applying the standardized timeframe (45 studies) revealed similar outcomes (13/45, 29%, sufficient notification timeframe, vs 15/45, 33%, insufficient). The disease specific timeframe was not met by any study. Systems involving reporting by laboratories most often complied sufficiently with predefined or standardized timeframes. Outcomes were not related to electronic, conventional notification systems or mobile phone reporting. Electronic systems were faster in comparative studies (10/13); this hardly resulted in sufficient timeliness, neither according to predefined nor to standardized timeframes. Conclusion: A minority of notification systems meets either predefined, standardized or disease specific timeframes. Systems including laboratory reporting are associated with timely notification. Electronic systems reduce reporting delay, but implementation needs considerable effort to comply with notification timeframes. During outbreak threats, patient, doctors and laboratory testing delays need to be reduced to achieve timely detection and notification. Public health authorities should incorporate procedures for this in their preparedness plans. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: The availability of a diagnostic test to detect subclinical leprosy cases is crucial to interrupt the transmission of M. leprae. In this study we assessed the minimum sensitivity level of such a (hypothetical) diagnostic test and the optimal testing strategy in order to effectively reduce the new case detection rate (NCDR) of leprosy. Methods and findings: We used the individual-based model SIMCOLEP, and based it on previous quantification using COLEP data, a cohort study of leprosy cases in Bangladesh. The baseline consisted of treatment with Multidrug therapy of clinically diagnosed leprosy cases, passive case detection and household contact tracing. We examined the use of a leprosy diagnostic test for subclinical leprosy in four strategies: testing in 1) household contacts, 2) household contacts with a 3-year follow-up, 3) a population survey with coverage 50%, and 4) a population survey (100%). For each strategy, we varied the test sensitivity between 50% and 100%. All analyses were conducted for a high, medium, and low (i.e. 25, 5 and 1 per 100,000) endemic setting over a period of 50 years. In all strategies, the use of a diagnostic test further reduces the NCDR of leprosy compared to the no test strategy. A substantial reduction could already be achieved at a test sensitivity as low as 50%. In a high endemic setting, a NCDR of 10 per 100,000 could be reached within 8–10 years in household contact testing, and 2–6 years in a population testing. Testing in a population survey could also yield the highest number of prevented new cases, but requires a large number needed to test and treat. In contrast, household contact testing has a smaller impact on the NCDR but requires a substantially lower number needed to test and treat. Conclusions: A diagnostic test for subclinical leprosy with a sensitivity of at least 50% could substantially reduce M. leprae transmission. To effectively reduce NCDR in the short run, a population survey is preferred over household contact tracing. However, this is only favorable in high endemic settings. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Poverty has long been considered a risk factor for leprosy and is related to nutritional deficiencies. In this study, we aim to investigate the association between poverty-related diet and nutrition with leprosy. Methodology/Principal findings: In rural leprosy-endemic areas in Indonesia, we conducted a household-based case-control study using two controls for each case patient (100 recently diagnosed leprosy patients and 200 controls), matched for age and gender. All participants were interviewed to collect information on their demographics, socioeconomic situation, health, and diet. Body mass index, dietary diversity score, as well as anemia and iron micronutrient profiles were also obtained. By means of univariate, block-wise multivariate, and integrated logistic regression analyses, we calculated odds ratios between the variables and the occurrence of leprosy. Unstable income (odds ratio [OR], 5.67; 95% confidence interval [CI], 2.54–12.64; p = 0.000), anemia (OR, 4.01; 95% CI, 2.10–7.64; p = 0.000), and higher household food insecurity (OR, 1.13; 95% CI, 1.06–1.21; p = 0.000) are significantly associated with an increased risk of having leprosy. Meanwhile, higher education (OR, 0.34; 95% CI, 0.15–0.77; p = 0.009) and land ownership (OR, 0.39; 95% CI, 0.18–0.86; p = 0.019) have significant protective associations against leprosy. Although lower dietary diversity, lack of food stock, food shortage, low serum iron, and high ferritin were found more commonly in those with leprosy, the occurrence of leprosy was not significantly associated with iron deficiency (OR, 1.06; 95% CI, 0.10–11.37; p = 0.963). Conclusions/Significance: Food poverty is an important risk factor for leprosy susceptibility, yet the mechanisms underlying this association other than nutrient deficiencies still need to be identified. With a stable incidence rate of leprosy despite the implementation of chemoprophylaxis and multidrug therapy, improving dietary diversity through food-based approaches should be initiated and directed toward high-prevalence villages. The possible underlying factors that link poverty to leprosy other than nutrient deficiencies also need to be identified. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: The control or elimination of neglected tropical diseases (NTDs) has targets defined by the WHO for 2020, reinforced by the 2012 London Declaration. We estimated the economic impact to individuals of meeting these targets for human African trypanosomiasis, leprosy, visceral leishmaniasis and Chagas disease, NTDs controlled or eliminated by innovative and intensified disease management (IDM). Methods: A systematic literature review identified information on productivity loss and out-of-pocket payments (OPPs) related to these NTDs, which were combined with projections of the number of people suffering from each NTD, country and year for 2011–2020 and 2021–2030. The ideal scenario in which the WHO’s 2020 targets are met was compared with a counterfactual scenario that assumed the situation of 1990 stayed unaltered. Economic benefit equaled the difference between the two scenarios. Values are reported in 2005 US$, purchasing power parity-adjusted, discounted at 3% per annum from 2010. Probabilistic sensitivity analyses were used to quantify the degree of uncertainty around the base-case impact estimate. Results: The total global productivity gained for the four IDM-NTDs was I$ 23.1 (I$ 15.9 –I$ 34.0) billion in 2011–2020 and I$ 35.9 (I$ 25.0 –I$ 51.9) billion in 2021–2030 (2.5th and 97.5th percentiles in brackets), corresponding to US$ 10.7 billion (US$ 7.4 –US$ 15.7) and US$ 16.6 billion (US$ 11.6 –US$ 24.0). Reduction in OPPs was I$ 14 billion (US$ 6.7 billion) and I$ 18 billion (US$ 10.4 billion) for the same periods. Conclusions: We faced important limitations to our work, such as finding no OPPs for leprosy. We had to combine limited data from various sources, heterogeneous background, and of variable quality. Nevertheless, based on conservative assumptions and subsequent uncertainty analyses, we estimate that the benefits of achieving the targets are considerable. Under plausible scenarios, the economic benefits far exceed the necessary investments by endemic country governments and their development partners. Given the higher frequency of NTDs among the poorest households, these investments represent good value for money in the effort to improve well-being, distribute the world’s prosperity more equitably and reduce inequity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Little is known about the prevalence of and factors that influence retention in HIV-related care among Indonesian men who have sex with men (MSM) and transgender women (transwomen, or waria in Indonesian term). Therefore, we explored the driving factors of retention in care among HIV-positive MSM and waria in Indonesia. This cross-sectional study involved 298 self-reported HIV-positive MSM (n = 165) and waria (n = 133). Participants were recruited using targeted sampling and interviewed using a structured questionnaire. We applied a four-step model building process using multivariable logistic regression to examine how sociodemographic, predisposing, enabling, and reinforcing factors were associated with retention in care. Overall, 78.5% of participants were linked to HIV care within 3 months after diagnosis or earlier, and 66.4% were adequately retained in care (at least one health care visit every three months once a person is diagnosed with HIV). Being on antiretroviral therapy (adjusted odds ratio [AOR] = 6.00; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 2.93–12.3), using the Internet to find HIV-related information (AOR = 2.15; 95% CI: 1.00–4.59), and having medical insurance (AOR = 2.84; 95% CI: 1.27–6.34) were associated with adequate retention in care. Involvement with an HIV-related organization was associated negatively with retention in care (AOR = 0.47; 95% CI: 0.24–0.95). Future interventions should increase health insurance coverage and utilize the Internet to help MSM and waria to remain in HIV-related care, thereby assisting them in achieving viral suppression. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Leprosy is a major public health problem in many low and middle income countries, especially in India, and contributes considerably to the global burden of the disease. Leprosy and poverty are closely associated, and therefore the economic burden of leprosy is a concern. However, evidence on patient’s expenditure is scarce. In this study, we estimate the expenditure in primary care (outpatient) by leprosy households in two different public health settings. Methodology / principal findings: We performed a cross-sectional study, comparing the Union Territory of Dadra and Nagar Haveli with the Umbergaon block of Valsad, Gujrat, India. A household (HH) survey was conducted between May and October, 2016. We calculated direct and indirect expenditure by zero inflated negative binomial and negative binomial regression. The sampled households were comparable on socioeconomic indicators. The mean direct expenditure was USD 6.5 (95% CI: 2.4–17.9) in Dadra and Nagar Haveli and USD 5.4 (95% CI: 3.8–7.9) per visit in Umbergaon. The mean indirect expenditure was USD 8.7 (95% CI: 7.2–10.6) in Dadra and Nagar Haveli and USD 12.4 (95% CI: 7.0–21.9) in Umbergaon. The age of the leprosy patients and type of health facilities were the major predictors of total expenditure on leprosy primary care. The higher the age, the higher the expenditure at both sites. The private facilities are more expensive than the government facilities at both sites. If the public health system is enhanced, government facilities are the first preference for patients. Conclusions/significance: An enhanced public health system reduces the patient’s expenditure and improves the health seeking behaviour. We recommend investing in health system strengthening to reduce the economic burden of leprosy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Despite elimination efforts, the number of Mycobacterium leprae (M. leprae) infected individuals who develop leprosy, is still substantial. Solid evidence exists that individuals living in close proximity to patients are at increased risk to develop leprosy. Early diagnosis of leprosy in endemic areas requires field-friendly tests that identify individuals at risk of developing the disease before clinical manifestation. Such assays will simultaneously contribute to reduction of current diagnostic delay as well as transmission. Antibody (Ab) levels directed against the M.leprae-specific phenolic glycolipid I (PGL-I) represents a surrogate marker for bacterial load. However, it is insufficiently defined whether anti-PGL-I antibodies can be utilized as prognostic biomarkers for disease in contacts. Particularly, in Bangladesh, where paucibacillary (PB) patients form the majority of leprosy cases, anti-PGL-I serology seems an inadequate method for leprosy screening in contacts as a directive for prophylactic treatment. Methods: Between 2002 and 2009, fingerstick blood from leprosy patients’ contacts without clinical signs of disease from a field-trial in Bangladesh was collected on filter paper at three time points covering six years of follow-up per person. Analysis of anti-PGL-I Ab levels for 25 contacts who developed leprosy during follow-up and 199 contacts who were not diagnosed with leprosy, was performed by ELISA after elution of bloodspots from filter paper. Results: Anti-PGL-I Ab levels at intake did not significantly differ between contacts who developed leprosy during the study and those who remained free of disease. Moreover, anti-PGL-I serology was not prognostic in this population as no significant correlation was identified between anti-PGL-I Ab levels at intake and the onset of leprosy. Conclusion: In this highly endemic population in Bangladesh, no association was observed between anti-PGL-I Ab levels and onset of disease, urging the need for an extended, more specific biomarker signature for early detection of leprosy in this area. Trial registration: ClinicalTrials.gov [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: While prednisolone is commonly used to treat recent nerve function impairment (NFI) in leprosy patients, the optimal treatment duration has not yet been established. In this “Treatment of Early Neuropathy in Leprosy” (TENLEP) trial, we evaluated whether a 32-week prednisolone course is more effective than a 20-week course in restoring and improving nerve function. Methods: In this multi-centre, triple-blind, randomized controlled trial, leprosy patients who had recently developed clinical NFI (<6 months) were allocated to a prednisolone treatment regimen of either 20 weeks or 32 weeks. Prednisolone was started at either 45 or 60 mg/day, depending on the patient’s body weight, and was then tapered. Throughout follow up, NFI was assessed by voluntary muscle testing and monofilament testing. The primary outcome was the proportion of patients with improved or restored nerve function at week 78. As secondary outcomes, we analysed improvements between baseline and week 78 on the Reaction Severity Scale, the SALSA Scale and the Participation Scale. Serious Adverse Events and the need for additional prednisolone treatment were monitored and reported. Results: We included 868 patients in the study, 429 in the 20-week arm and 439 in the 32-week arm. At 78 weeks, the proportion of patients with improved or restored nerve function did not differ significantly between the groups: 78.1% in the 20-week arm and 77.5% in the 32-week arm (p = 0.821). Nor were there any differences in secondary outcomes, except for a significant higher proportion of Serious Adverse Events in the longer treatment arm. Conclusion: In our study, a 20-week course of prednisolone was as effective as a 32-week course in improving and restoring recent clinical NFI in leprosy patients. Twenty weeks is therefore the preferred initial treatment duration for leprosy neuropathy, after which likely only a minority of patients require further individualized treatment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Lymphatic filariasis (LF), onchocerciasis, schistosomiasis, soil-transmitted helminths (STH) and trachoma represent the five most prevalent neglected tropical diseases (NTDs). They can be controlled or eliminated by means of safe and cost-effective interventions delivered through programs of Mass Drug Administration (MDA)—also named Preventive Chemotherapy (PCT). The WHO defined targets for NTD control/elimination by 2020, reinforced by the 2012 London Declaration, which, if achieved, would result in dramatic health gains. We estimated the potential economic benefit of achieving these targets, focusing specifically on productivity and out-of-pocket payments. Methods: Productivity loss was calculated by combining disease frequency with productivity loss from the disease, from the perspective of affected individuals. Productivity gain was calculated by deducting the total loss expected in the target achievement scenario from the loss in a counterfactual scenario where it was assumed the pre-intervention situation in 1990 regarding NTDs would continue unabated until 2030. Economic benefits from out-of-pocket payments (OPPs) were calculated similarly. Benefits are reported in 2005 US$ (purchasing power parity-adjusted and discounted at 3% per annum from 2010). Sensitivity analyses were used to assess the influence of changes in input parameters. Results: The economic benefit from productivity gain was estimated to be I$251 billion in 2011–2020 and I$313 billion in 2021–2030, considerably greater than the total OPPs averted of I$0.72 billion and I$0.96 billion in the same periods. The net benefit is expected to be US$ 27.4 and US$ 42.8 for every dollar invested during the same periods. Impact varies between NTDs and regions, since it is determined by disease prevalence and extent of disease-related productivity loss. Conclusion: Achieving the PCT-NTD targets for 2020 will yield significant economic benefits to affected individuals. Despite large uncertainty, these benefits far exceed the investment required by governments and their development partners within all reasonable scenarios. Given the concentration of the NTDs among the poorest households, these investments represent good value for money in efforts to share the world’s prosperity and reduce inequity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Neglected tropical diseases (NTDs) are generally assumed to be concentrated in poor populations, but evidence on this remains scattered. We describe within-country socioeconomic inequalities in nine NTDs listed in the London Declaration for intensified control and/or elimination: lymphatic filariasis (LF), onchocerciasis, schistosomiasis, soil-transmitted helminthiasis (STH), trachoma, Chagas’ disease, human African trypanosomiasis (HAT), leprosy, and visceral leishmaniasis (VL). Methodology: We conducted a systematic literature review, including publications between 2004–2013 found in Embase, Medline (OvidSP), Cochrane Central, Web of Science, Popline, Lilacs, and Scielo. We included publications in international peer-reviewed journals on studies concerning the top 20 countries in terms of the burden of the NTD under study. Principal findings: We identified 5,516 publications, of which 93 met the inclusion criteria. Of these, 59 papers reported substantial and statistically significant socioeconomic inequalities in NTD distribution, with higher odds of infection or disease among poor and less-educated people compared with better-off groups. The findings were mixed in 23 studies, and 11 studies showed no substantial or statistically significant inequality. Most information was available for STH, VL, schistosomiasis, and, to a lesser extent, for trachoma. For the other NTDs, evidence on their socioeconomic distribution was scarce. The magnitude of inequality varied, but often, the odds of infection or disease were twice as high among socioeconomically disadvantaged groups compared with better-off strata. Inequalities often took the form of a gradient, with higher odds of infection or disease each step down the socioeconomic hierarchy. Notwithstanding these inequalities, the prevalence of some NTDs was sometimes also high among better-off groups in some highly endemic areas. Conclusions: While recent evidence on socioeconomic inequalities is scarce for most individual NTDs, for some, there is considerable evidence of substantially higher odds of infection or disease among socioeconomically disadvantaged groups. NTD control activities as proposed in the London Declaration, when set up in a way that they reach the most in need, will benefit the poorest populations in poor countries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: The World Health Organization (WHO) has set ambitious time-bound targets for the control and elimination of neglected tropical diseases (NTDs). Investing in NTDs is not only seen as good value for money, but is also advocated as a pro-poor policy since it would improve population health in the poorest populations. We studied the extent to which the disease burden from nine NTDs (lymphatic filariasis, onchocerciasis, schistosomiasis, soil-transmitted helminths, trachoma, Chagas disease, human African trypanosomiasis, leprosy, visceral leishmaniasis) was concentrated in the poorest countries in 1990 and 2010, and how this would change by 2020 in case the WHO targets are met. Principal Findings: Our analysis was based on 1990 and 2010 data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2010 study and on projections of the 2020 burden. Low and lower-middle income countries together accounted for 69% and 81% of the global burden in 1990 and 2010 respectively. Only the soil-transmitted helminths and Chagas disease caused a considerable burden in upper-middle income countries. The global burden from these NTDs declined by 27% between 1990 and 2010, but reduction largely came to the benefit of upper-middle income countries. Achieving the WHO targets would lead to a further 55% reduction in the global burden between 2010 and 2020 in each country income group, and 81% of the global reduction would occur in low and lower-middle income countries. Conclusions: The GBD 2010 data show the burden of the nine selected NTDs in DALYs is strongly concentrated in low and lower-middle income countries, which implies that the beneficial impact of NTD control eventually also largely comes to the benefit of these same countries. While the nine NTDs became increasingly concentrated in developing countries in the 1990–2010 period, this trend would be rectified if the WHO targets were met, supporting the pro-poor designation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In 2009, influenza A H1N1 caused the first pandemic of the 21st century. Although a vaccine against this influenza subtype was offered before or at the onset of the second epidemic wave that caused most of the fatal cases in Europe, vaccination rates for that season were lower than expected. We propose that the contradiction between high risk of infection and low use of available prevention measures represents a pandemic public health paradox. This research aims for a better understanding of this paradox by exploring the time-dependent interplay among changing influenza epidemiology, media attention, pandemic control measures, risk perception and public health behavior among five European countries (Czech Republic, Denmark, Germany, Spain and the UK). Findings suggest that asynchronicity between media curves and epidemiological curves may potentially explain the pandemic public health paradox; media attention for influenza A H1N1 in Europe declined long before the epidemic reached its peak, and public risk perceptions and behaviors may have followed media logic, rather than epidemiological logic. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Leprosy remains a public health problem in Brazil. Although the overall number of new cases is declining, there are still areas with a high disease burden, such as Pará State in the north of the country. We aim to predict future trends in new case detection rate (NCDR) and explore the potential impact of contact tracing and chemoprophylaxis on NCDR in Pará State. Methods: We used SIMCOLEP, an existing individual-based model for the transmission and control of M. leprae, in a population structured by households. The model was quantified to simulate the population and observed NCDR of leprosy in Pará State for the period 1990 to 2014. The baseline scenario was the current control program, consisting of multidrug therapy, passive case detection, and active case detection from 2003 onwards. Future projections of the NCDR were made until 2050 given the continuation of the current control program (i.e. baseline). We further investigated the potential impact of two scenarios for future control of leprosy: 1) discontinuation of contact tracing; and 2) continuation of current control in combination with chemoprophylaxis. Both scenarios started in 2015 and were projected until 2050. Results: The modelled NCDR in Pará State after 2014 shows a continuous downward trend, reaching the official elimination target of 10 cases per 100,000 population by 2030. The cessation of systematic contact tracing would not result in a higher NCDR in the long run. Systematic contact tracing in combination with chemoprophylaxis for contacts would reduce the NCDR by 40% and bring attainment of the elimination target two years forward to 2028. Conclusion: The NCDR of leprosy continues to decrease in Pará State. Elimination of leprosy as a public health problem could possibly be achieved around 2030, if the current control program is maintained. Providing chemoprophylaxis would decrease the NCDR further and would bring elimination forward by two years. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: The London Declaration (2012) was formulated to support and focus the control and elimination of ten neglected tropical diseases (NTDs), with targets for 2020 as formulated by the WHO Roadmap. Five NTDs (lymphatic filariasis, onchocerciasis, schistosomiasis, soil-transmitted helminths and trachoma) are to be controlled by preventive chemotherapy (PCT), and four (Chagas’ disease, human African trypanosomiasis, leprosy and visceral leishmaniasis) by innovative and intensified disease management (IDM). Guinea worm, virtually eradicated, is not considered here. We aim to estimate the global health impact of meeting these targets in terms of averted morbidity, mortality, and disability adjusted life years (DALYs). Methods: The Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2010 study provides prevalence and burden estimates for all nine NTDs in 1990 and 2010, by country, age and sex, which were taken as the basis for our calculations. Estimates for other years were obtained by interpolating between 1990 (or the start-year of large-scale control efforts) and 2010, and further extrapolating until 2030, such that the 2020 targets were met. The NTD disease manifestations considered in the GBD study were analyzed as either reversible or irreversible. Health impacts were assessed by comparing the results of achieving the targets with the counterfactual, construed as the health burden had the 1990 (or 2010 if higher) situation continued unabated. Principle Findings/Conclusions: Our calculations show that meeting the targets will lead to about 600 million averted DALYs in the period 2011–2030, nearly equally distributed between PCT and IDM-NTDs, with the health gain amongst PCT-NTDs mostly (96%) due to averted disability and amongst IDM-NTDs largely (95%) from averted mortality. These health gains include about 150 million averted irreversible disease manifestations (e.g. blindness) and 5 million averted deaths. Control of soil-transmitted helminths accounts for one third of all averted DALYs. We conclude that the projected health impact of the London Declaration justifies the required efforts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article discusses the factors that affect the development of diagnostic tests and tools for leprosy, the disease manifestation of mycobacterium leprae infection. Topics discussed include the ideal diagnostic biomarker for leprosy, the transmission and prevalence of the disease, and the disease's new case detection rate (NCDR).

Objectives: To assess how girls' preferences have changed almost 3 years after the much debated start of the human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination program. Methods: A discrete choice experiment (DCE) was conducted among girls aged 11–15 years who were invited, or were not yet invited, to get vaccinated. A panel latent class model was used to determine girls' preferences for vaccination based on five characteristics: degree of protection against cervical cancer; duration of protection; risk of mild side-effects; age of vaccination; and the number of required doses of the vaccine. Results: The response rate was 85% (500/592). Most girls preferred vaccination at age 14 years (instead of at age 9 years) and a 2-dose scheme (instead of the current 3-dose scheme). Girls were willing to trade-off 7% (CI: 3.2% to 10.8%) of the degree of protection to have 10% less risk of mild side-effects, and 4% (CI: 1.2% to 5.9%) to receive 2 doses instead of 3 doses. Latent class analyses showed that there was preference heterogeneity among girls, i.e., higher educated girls and HPV vaccinated girls had a higher probability to opt for HPV vaccination at a higher age than lower educated girls or non-vaccinated girls. Conclusions: Three years after the start of HPV vaccination program the risk of mild side-effects and age at vaccination seem to have become less important. For the Dutch national immunization program, we recommend not to lower the current target age of 12 years. A 2-dose scheme may result in a higher uptake and we recommend that if this scheme is introduced, it needs to receive adequate publicity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Preventive measures are essential to limit the spread of new viruses; their uptake is key to their success. However, the vaccination uptake in pandemic outbreaks is often low. We aim to elicit how disease and vaccination characteristics determine preferences of the general public for new pandemic vaccinations. Methods: In an internet-based discrete choice experiment (DCE) a representative sample of 536 participants (49% participation rate) from the Dutch population was asked for their preference for vaccination programs in hypothetical communicable disease outbreaks. We used scenarios based on two disease characteristics (susceptibility to and severity of the disease) and five vaccination program characteristics (effectiveness, safety, advice regarding vaccination, media attention, and out-of-pocket costs). The DCE design was based on a literature review, expert interviews and focus group discussions. A panel latent class logit model was used to estimate which trade-offs individuals were willing to make. Results: All above mentioned characteristics proved to influence respondents’ preferences for vaccination. Preference heterogeneity was substantial. Females who stated that they were never in favor of vaccination made different trade-offs than males who stated that they were (possibly) willing to get vaccinated. As expected, respondents preferred and were willing to pay more for more effective vaccines, especially if the outbreak was more serious (€6–€39 for a 10% more effective vaccine). Changes in effectiveness, out-of-pocket costs and in the body that advises the vaccine all substantially influenced the predicted uptake. Conclusions: We conclude that various disease and vaccination program characteristics influence respondents’ preferences for pandemic vaccination programs. Agencies responsible for preventive measures during pandemics can use the knowledge that out-of-pocket costs and the way advice is given affect vaccination uptake to improve their plans for future pandemic outbreaks. The preference heterogeneity shows that information regarding vaccination needs to be targeted differently depending on gender and willingness to get vaccinated. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The author explores the contributions of the African Programme for Onchocerciasis Control (APOC) for treating patients with onchocerciasis in 16 sub-Saharan countries including Cameroon, Congo and Ethiopia. Details on the updates health impact of the disease estimation based on disability weights from year 1995 to 2015 is discussed. The author also emphasizes the risk of skin disease in patients with onchocerciasis.

Background: Floating populations have been repeatedly characterized as “the tipping point” for the HIV epidemic in China. This study aims to systematically summarize and assess the effectiveness of HIV prevention interventions in floating populations in China over the past decade. Methods: We conducted a systematic search in three international databases for literature published between 2005 and 2012 with condom use as the primary outcome, and knowledge about HIV transmission and prevention and stigma towards HIV-infected individuals as secondary outcomes. The impact of interventions on changing the primary and secondary outcomes was calculated by risk difference (RD). We also performed subgroup analyses and meta-regression based on different study characteristics, using Stata 12.0, for the primary outcome. Results: Sixteen studies (out of 149) involved 19 different programs and a total of 10,864 participants at entry from 11 provinces in China. The pooled effect estimate of all studies indicated that people participating in HIV-related interventions were 13% more likely to use condoms (95%CI: 0.07, 0.18), however, the effects on increasing condom use exhibited significant heterogeneity across programs (P<0.01, I2 = 0.93). The meta-regression results suggest that interventions have been significantly less successful in changing condom use in more recent studies (β, 0.14; 95%CI: 0.01, 0.27), adjusted for sexual relationship, study design and follow-up period. Regarding the secondary outcomes, HIV-related interventions were successful at improving knowledge about HIV transmission and prevention (RD, −0.26; 95%CI: −0.36, −0.16 and RD, −0.25; 95%CI: −0.33, −0.16, respectively), and decreasing stigma (RD, 0.18; 95%CI: 0.09, 0.27). Conclusions: The included studies between 2005 and 2012 indicate that HIV prevention interventions among Chinese floating populations in the past decade were only marginally effective at increasing condom use, but relatively successful at increasing HIV knowledge and decreasing stigma. To avert new infections, novel sexual risk-reduction interventions taking into account the changing socio-economic and cultural situation of Chinese floating populations are urgently needed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]