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This was an observational study of the 1-year outcomes of the 20,000 patients included in the original CHARIOT study. The aim of the study was to assess the association between high sensitivity troponin I (hs-cTnI) concentration and 1 year mortality in this cohort. The original CHARIOT study included a consecutive cohort of in- and out-patients undergoing blood tests for any reason. Hs-cTnI concentrations were measured regardless of whether the clinician requested them. These results were nested and not revealed to the team unless requested for clinical reasons. One year mortality data was obtained from NHS Digital as originally planned. Overall, 1782 (8.9%) patients had died at 1 year. Multivariable Cox regression analysis showed that a hs-cTnI concentration above the upper limit of normal was independently associated with the hazard of mortality (HR 2.23; 95% confidence intervals 1.97 to 2.52). Furthermore, the log (10) hs-cTnI concentration was independently associated with the hazard of 1 year mortality (HR 1.77; 95% confidence intervals 1.64 to 1.91). In conclusion, in a large, unselected hospital population of both in- and out-patients, in 18,282 (91.4%) of whom there was no clinical indication for testing, hs-cTnI concentration was associated with 1 year mortality.

Aims To determine if remotely monitored physiological data from cardiac implantable electronic devices (CIEDs) can be used to identify patients at high risk of mortality. Methods and results This study evaluated whether a risk score based on CIED physiological data (Triage-Heart Failure Risk Status, ‘Triage-HFRS’, previously validated to predict heart failure (HF) events) can identify patients at high risk of death. Four hundred and thirty-nine adults with CIEDs were prospectively enrolled. Primary observed outcome was all-cause mortality (median follow-up: 702 days). Several physiological parameters [including heart rate profile, atrial fibrillation/tachycardia (AF/AT) burden, ventricular rate during AT/AF, physical activity, thoracic impedance, therapies for ventricular tachycardia/fibrillation] were continuously monitored by CIEDs and dynamically combined to produce a Triage-HFRS every 24 h. According to transmissions patients were categorized into ‘high-risk’ or ‘never high-risk’ groups. During follow-up, 285 patients (65%) had a high-risk episode and 60 patients (14%) died (50 in high-risk group; 10 in never high-risk group). Significantly more cardiovascular deaths were observed in the high-risk group, with mortality rates across groups of high vs. never-high 10.3% vs. Conclusion Remote monitoring data from CIEDs can be used to identify patients at higher risk of all-cause mortality as well as HF events. Distinct from other prognostic scores, this approach is automated and continuously updated.

OBJECTIVES Guidelines advocate that patients being considered for thoracic surgery should undergo a comprehensive preoperative risk assessment. Multiple risk prediction models to estimate the risk of mortality after thoracic surgery have been developed, but their quality and performance has not been reviewed in a systematic way. The objective was to systematically review these models and critically appraise their performance. METHODS The Cochrane Library and the MEDLINE database were searched for articles published between 1990 and 2019. Studies that developed or validated a model predicting perioperative mortality after thoracic surgery were included. Data were extracted based on the checklist for critical appraisal and data extraction for systematic reviews of prediction modelling studies. RESULTS A total of 31 studies describing 22 different risk prediction models were identified. There were 20 models developed specifically for thoracic surgery with two developed in other surgical specialties. A total of 57 different predictors were included across the identified models. Age, sex and pneumonectomy were the most frequently included predictors in 19, 13 and 11 models, respectively. Model performance based on either discrimination or calibration was inadequate for all externally validated models. The most recent data included in validation studies were from 2018. Risk of bias (assessed using Prediction model Risk Of Bias ASsessment Tool) was high for all except two models. CONCLUSIONS Despite multiple risk prediction models being developed to predict perioperative mortality after thoracic surgery, none could be described as appropriate for contemporary thoracic surgery. Contemporary validation of available models or new model development is required to ensure that appropriate estimates of operative risk are available for contemporary thoracic surgical practice.

OBJECTIVES National guidelines advocate the use of clinical prediction models to estimate perioperative mortality for patients undergoing lung resection. Several models have been developed that may potentially be useful but contemporary external validation studies are lacking. The aim of this study was to validate existing models in a multicentre patient cohort. METHODS The Thoracoscore, Modified Thoracoscore, Eurolung, Modified Eurolung, European Society Objective Score and Brunelli models were validated using a database of 6600 patients who underwent lung resection between 2012 and 2018. Models were validated for in-hospital or 30-day mortality (depending on intended outcome of each model) and also for 90-day mortality. Model calibration (calibration intercept, calibration slope, observed to expected ratio and calibration plots) and discrimination (area under receiver operating characteristic curve) were assessed as measures of model performance. RESULTS Mean age was 66.8 years (±10.9 years) and 49.7% (n = 3281) of patients were male. In-hospital, 30-day, perioperative (in-hospital or 30-day) and 90-day mortality were 1.5% (n = 99), 1.4% (n = 93), 1.8% (n = 121) and 3.1% (n = 204), respectively. Model area under the receiver operating characteristic curves ranged from 0.67 to 0.73. Calibration was inadequate in five models and mortality was significantly overestimated in five models. No model was able to adequately predict 90-day mortality. CONCLUSIONS Five of the validated models were poorly calibrated and had inadequate discriminatory ability. The modified Eurolung model demonstrated adequate statistical performance but lacked clinical validity. Development of accurate models that can be used to estimate the contemporary risk of lung resection is required.

OBJECTIVES The ability to accurately estimate the risk of peri-operative mortality after lung resection is important. There are concerns about the performance and validity of existing models developed for this purpose, especially when predicting mortality within 90 days of surgery. The aim of this study was therefore to develop a clinical prediction model for mortality within 90 days of undergoing lung resection. METHODS A retrospective database of patients undergoing lung resection in two UK centres between 2012 and 2018 was used to develop a multivariable logistic risk prediction model, with bootstrap sampling used for internal validation. Apparent and adjusted measures of discrimination (area under receiving operator characteristic curve) and calibration (calibration-in-the-large and calibration slope) were assessed as measures of model performance. RESULTS Data were available for 6600 lung resections for model development. Predictors included in the final model were age, sex, performance status, percentage predicted diffusion capacity of the lung for carbon monoxide, anaemia, serum creatinine, pre-operative arrhythmia, right-sided resection, number of resected bronchopulmonary segments, open approach and malignant diagnosis. Good model performance was demonstrated, with adjusted area under receiving operator characteristic curve, calibration-in-the-large and calibration slope values (95% confidence intervals) of 0.741 (0.700, 0.782), 0.006 (−0.143, 0.156) and 0.870 (0.679, 1.060), respectively. CONCLUSIONS The RESECT-90 model demonstrates good statistical performance for the prediction of 90-day mortality after lung resection. A project to facilitate large-scale external validation of the model to ensure that the model retains accuracy and is transferable to other centres in different geographical locations is currently underway.

IntroductionSudden cardiac death (SCD) is the leading cause of death in patients with myocardial infarction (MI) and can be prevented by the implantable cardioverter defibrillator (ICD). Currently, risk stratification for SCD and decision on ICD implantation are based solely on impaired left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF). However, this strategy leads to over- and under-treatment of patients because LVEF alone is insufficient for accurate assessment of prognosis. Thus, there is a need for better risk stratification. This is the study protocol for developing and validating a prediction model for risk of SCD in patients with prior MI.Methods and AnalysisThe EU funded PROFID project will analyse 23 datasets from Europe, Israel and the US (∼225,000 observations). The datasets include patients with prior MI or ischemic cardiomyopathy with reduced LVEFEthics and disseminationLocal ethical approval was obtained. The final model will be disseminated through scientific publications and a web-calculator. Statistical code will be published through open-source repositories.

BackgroundThe rates of readmission for serious cardiovascular events among patients admitted with a diagnosis of non-specific chest pain are unknown.MethodsA national retrospective cohort study in the United States was undertaken to evaluate the rates, trends and predictors of readmission for serious cardiovascular events (acute coronary syndrome (ACS), pulmonary embolism (PE) and aortic dissection (AD)) after an inpatient episode with a primary diagnosis of non-specific chest pain.ResultsAmong 1,172,430 patients with an index diagnosis of non-specific chest pain between 2010 and 2014, 2.4% were readmitted with an ACS, 0.4% with a PE and 0.06% with an AD within 6 months of discharge. Predictors of ACS readmissions were diabetes (OR 1.49 95% CI 1.17–1.32), coronary artery disease (OR 2.29 95% CI 2.15–2.44), previous percutaneous coronary intervention (OR 1.65 95% CI 1.56–1.75), previous CABG (OR 1.52 95% CI 1.43–1.61) and discharge against medical advice (OR 1.94 95% CI 1.78–2.12). Female patients (OR 0.82 95% CI 0.78–0.86) and patients in whom a coronary angiogram was undertaken (OR 0.48 95% CI 0.45–0.52) were less likely to be readmitted for ACS. For PE, predictors of readmission were pulmonary circulatory disorder (OR 2.20 95% CI 1.09–4.43), anemia (OR 1.62 95% CI 1.40–1.86) and cancer (OR 4.15 95% CI 3.43–5.02). Peripheral vascular disease (OR 8.63 95% CI 5.47–13.60), renal failure (OR 2.08 95% CI 1.34–3.24) were predictors of AD.ConclusionsNon-specific chest pain may not be a benign condition as readmissions for serious cardiovascular events occur in 3% of patients within 180 days. Research is needed to define measures that may mitigate readmissions among these patients.

Objectives The aim of this study was to evaluate national temporal trends in same-day discharge (SDD) and compare clinical outcomes with those among patients admitted for overnight stay undergoing elective percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) for stable angina. Background Overnight observation has been the standard of care following PCI, with no previous national analyses around changes in practice or clinical outcomes from health care systems in which SDD is the predominant practice for elective PCI. Methods Data from 169,623 patients undergoing elective PCI between 2007 and 2014 were obtained from the British Cardiovascular Intervention Society registry. Multiple logistic regressions and the British Cardiovascular Intervention Society risk model were used to study the association between SDD and 30-day mortality. Results The rate of SDD increased from 23.5% in 2007 to 57.2% in 2014, with center SDD median prevalence varying from 17% (interquartile range: 6% to 39%) in 2007 to 66% (interquartile range: 45% to 77%) in 2014. The largest independent association with SDD was observed for radial access (odds ratio: 1.69; 95% confidence interval: 1.65 to 1.74; p Conclusions SDD has become the predominant model of care among elective PCI cases in the United Kingdom, in increasingly complex patients. SDD appears to be safe, with 30-day mortality rates in line with those calculated using the national risk prediction score used for public reporting. Changes toward SDD practice have important economic implications for health care systems worldwide.

BACKGROUND Intraoperative mediastinal lymph node sampling (MLNS) is a crucial component of lung cancer surgery. Whilst several sampling strategies have been clearly defined in guidelines from international organizations, reports of adherence to these guidelines are lacking. We aimed to assess our center's adherence to guidelines and determine whether adequacy of sampling is associated with survival. MATERIALS AND METHODS A single-center retrospective review of consecutive patients undergoing lung resection for primary lung cancer between January 2013 and December 2018 was undertaken. Sampling adequacy was assessed against standards outlined in the International Association for the Study of Lung Cancer 2009 guidelines. Multivariable logistic and Cox proportional hazards regression analyses were used to assess the impact of specific variables on adequacy and of specific variables on overall survival, respectively. RESULTS A total of 2380 patients were included in the study. Overall adequacy was 72.1% (n= 1717). Adherence improved from 44.8% in 2013 to 85.0% in 2018 (P< 0.001). Undergoing a right-sided resection increased the odds of adequate MLNS on multivariable logistic regression (odds ratio 1.666, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.385-2.003, P< 0.001). Inadequate MLNS was not significantly associated with reduced overall survival on log rank analysis (P= 0.340) or after adjustment with multivariable Cox proportional hazards (hazard ratio 0.839, 95% CI 0.643-1.093). CONCLUSIONS Adherence to standards improved significantly over time and was significantly higher for right-sided resections. We found no evidence of an association between adequate MLNS and overall survival in this cohort. A pressing need remains for the introduction of national guidelines defining acceptable performance.

Supplemental Digital Content is available in the text., Background: Aortic stenosis requires timely treatment with either surgical aortic valve replacement (SAVR) or transcatheter aortic valve replacement (TAVR). This study aimed to investigate the indirect impact of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) on national SAVR and TAVR activity and outcomes. Methods: The UK TAVR Registry and the National Adult Cardiac Surgery Audit were used to identify all TAVR and SAVR procedures in England, between January 2017 and November 2020. The number of isolated aortic valve replacement (AVR), AVR+coronary artery bypass graft surgery, AVR+other surgery, and TAVR procedures per month was calculated. Separate negative binomial regression models were fit to monthly procedural counts, with functions of time as covariates, to estimate the expected change in activity during COVID-19. Results: We included 15 142 TAVR cases, 13 357 isolated AVR cases, 8550 AVR+coronary artery bypass graft cases, and 6773 AVR+other cases. Before March 2020 (UK lockdown), monthly TAVR activity was rising, with a slight decrease in the SAVR activity during 2019. We observed a rapid and significant drop in TAVR and SAVR activity during the COVID-19 pandemic, especially for elective cases. Cumulatively, over the period March to November 2020, we estimated an expected 4989 (95% CI, 4020–5959) cases of aortic stenosis who have not received treatment. Conclusions: This study has demonstrated a significant decrease in TAVR and SAVR activity in England following the COVID-19 outbreak. This situation should be monitored closely, to ensure that monthly activity rapidly returns to expected levels. There is potential for significant backlog in the near-to-medium term and potential for increased mortality in this population.

Background There are limited data on the impact of the COVID‐19 pandemic on left main (LM) coronary revascularisation activity, choice of revascularisation strategy, and post‐procedural outcomes. Methods All patients with LM disease (≥50% stenosis) undergoing coronary revascularisation in England between January 1, 2017 and August 19, 2020 were included (n = 22,235), stratified by time‐period (pre‐COVID: 01/01/2017–29/2/2020; COVID: 1/3/2020–19/8/2020) and revascularisation strategy (percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) vs. coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG). Logistic regression models were performed to examine odds ratio (OR) of 1) receipt of CABG (vs. PCI) and 2) in‐hospital and 30‐day postprocedural mortality, in the COVID‐19 period (vs. pre‐COVID). Results There was a decline of 1,354 LM revascularisation procedures between March 1, 2020 and July 31, 2020 compared with previous years' (2017–2019) averages (−48.8%). An increased utilization of PCI over CABG was observed in the COVID period (receipt of CABG vs. PCI: OR 0.46 [0.39, 0.53] compared with 2017), consistent across all age groups. No difference in adjusted in‐hospital or 30‐day mortality was observed between pre‐COVID and COVID periods for both PCI (odds ratio (OR): 0.72 [0.51. 1.02] and 0.83 [0.62, 1.11], respectively) and CABG (OR 0.98 [0.45, 2.14] and 1.51 [0.77, 2.98], respectively) groups. Conclusion LM revascularisation activity has significantly declined during the COVID period, with a shift towards PCI as the preferred strategy. Postprocedural mortality within each revascularisation group was similar in the pre‐COVID and COVID periods, reflecting maintenance in quality of outcomes during the pandemic. Future measures are required to safely restore LM revascularisation activity to pre‐COVID levels.

ObjectiveThere are concerns that healthcare and outcomes of black, Asian and minority ethnic (BAME) communities are disproportionately impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic. We investigated admission rates, treatment and mortality of BAME with acute myocardial infarction (AMI) during COVID-19.MethodsUsing multisource national healthcare records, patients hospitalised with AMI in England during 1 February–27 May 2020 were included in the COVID-19 group, whereas patients admitted during the same period in the previous three consecutive years were included in a pre-COVID-19 group. Multilevel hierarchical regression analyses were used to quantify the changes in-hospital and 7-day mortality in BAME compared with whites.ResultsOf 73 746 patients, higher proportions of BAME patients (16.7% vs 10.1%) were hospitalised with AMI during the COVID-19 period compared with pre-COVID-19. BAME patients admitted during the COVID-19 period were younger, male and likely to present with ST-elevation acute myocardial infarction. COVID-19 BAME group admitted with non-ST-elevation acute myocardial infarction less frequently received coronary angiography (86.1% vs 90.0%, pConclusionIn this multisource linked cohort study, compared with whites, BAME patients had proportionally higher hospitalisation rates with AMI, less frequently received guidelines indicated care and had higher early mortality during COVID-19 period compared with pre-COVID-19 period. There is a need to develop clinical pathways to achieve equity in the management of these vulnerable populations.

Background There is growing awareness internationally around the prevalence and dangerousness of non-fatal strangulation (NFS). The aim of this study was to: (i) identify the prevalence of NFS in patients presenting to the Saint Mary's Sexual Assault Referral Centre (SARC), Manchester, UK for an acute forensic medical examination (FME) after a report of rape or sexual assault, (ii) explore the characteristics of patients reporting NFS compared to those who did not and (iii) explore the prevalence of various symptoms and signs associated with NFS. Method Data from case files of all patients attending in a three year period, January 1, 2017 to December 31, 2019, were analysed. There was not any age or gender related exclusion criteria. In the NFS cases the Saint Mary's SARC NFS pro-forma used as part of the contemporaneous medical notes was also reviewed. Results A total of 2196 adults (≥18 years old) attended Saint Mary's SARC for an acute FME during the three year study period. This comprised 1994 (90.7%) non-NFS cases and 204 (9.28%) NFS cases. The prevalence of NFS was 18.9% where the alleged perpetrator was a partner or ex-partner. For NFS cases, 96.6% (n = 197) of the patients were female and the alleged perpetrator was male in 98% (n = 200) of the NFS cases. 40% of the NFS cases had been strangled in their own homes and in 33% of cases children lived in that home. In 27% (n = 55) of the NFS cases the patient said that the alleged perpetrator had also strangled them on a previous occasion. 46.6% had an injury to the neck or above attributable to the NFS. 15.7% (n = 32) of the NFS cases reported loss of consciousness, 8.8% (n = 18) were incontinent of urine and 2% (n = 4) incontinent of faeces as a result of the NFS. Over a third of the patients (36.6%) thought that they were going to die during the NFS. Conclusion The study shows that NFS in sexual assault is a gendered crime, with most victims female and most assailants male. NFS is prevalent and this prevalence increases where the alleged perpetrator is a partner or ex-partner. Many are assaulted in their own homes, homes frequently shared with children. Visible NFS injuries are not the norm yet fear of death is not uncommon. Over 1 in 6 (15.7%) reported loss of consciousness suggesting that they were victims of a near lethal assault. That 27% had previously been a victim of NFS by the same alleged perpetrator indicates that there are considerable numbers potentially living in fear and at risk. Awareness of the risk of NFS, and an enhanced response to it, is required by those looking after victims and all those in the criminal justice system.

Background There is limited evidence on the differences in procedural outcomes between sexes after de novo cardiac implantable electronic device implantation (CIED). Furthermore, it is unclear whether any sex-based disparities have changed over the years. Purpose To compare procedural outcomes of de novo CIED implantation between sexes and study the trends of these outcomes over a 11-year period in a nationally representative sample. Methods Using the National Inpatient Sample, all hospitalisations between 2004 and 2014 for de novo CIED implantation were included, stratified by sex. Multivariable logistic regression was performed to 1) examine the association between sex and in-hospital complications of CIED implantation, expressed as odds ratios (OR) with 95% confidence intervals (CI), and 2) analyse trends of in-hospital outcomes by assessing the interaction term between time (years) and sex as covariates. Results Out of 2,815,613 hospitalisations for de novo CIED implantation, 41.9% were performed on women. Women were associated with increased adjusted odds of major adverse cardiovascular events (composite of mortality, thoracic and cardiac complications; OR 1.17 95% CI 1.16, 1.19), procedure-related bleeding (OR 1.13 95% CI 1.12, 1.15), and local complications (thoracic: OR 1.42 95% CI 1.40, 1.44, cardiac: OR 1.44 95% CI 1.38, 1.50). (p Conclusion In a national cohort of CIED implantations we demonstrate that women are at a persistently higher risk of procedure-related adverse events other than mortality compared to men. This trend is concerning and warrants further work on procedural techniques to neutralise these sex disparities. Trends of odds of complications in women Funding Acknowledgement Type of funding source: Private company. Main funding source(s): This work constitutes part of a PhD for MOM that is supported by Medtronic Ltd. Medtronic Ltd. was not involved in the conceptualization, design, conduct, analysis, or interpretation of the current study.

BackgroundAortic stenosis requires timely treatment with either surgical aortic valve replacement (SAVR) or transcatheter aortic valve replacement (TAVR). This study aimed to investigate the indirect impact of COVID-19 on national SAVR and TAVR activity and outcomes.MethodsThe UK TAVR Registry and the National Adult Cardiac Surgery Audit were used to identify all TAVR and SAVR procedures in England, between January 2017 and June 2020. The number of isolated AVR, AVR+coronary artery bypass graft (CABG) surgery, AVR+other surgery and TAVR procedures per month was calculated. Separate negative binomial regression models were fit to monthly procedural counts, with functions of time as covariates, to estimate the expected change in activity during COVID-19.ResultsWe included 13376 TAVR cases, 12328 isolated AVR cases, 7829 AVR+CABG cases, and 6014 AVR+Other cases. Prior to March 2020 (UK lockdown), monthly TAVR activity was rising, with a slight decrease in SAVR activity during 2019. We observed a rapid and significant drop in TAVR and SAVR activity during the COVID-19 pandemic, especially for elective cases. Cumulatively, over the period March to June 2020, we estimated an expected 2294 (95% CI 1872, 2716) cases of severe aortic stenosis who have not received treatment.ConclusionThis study has demonstrated a significant decrease in TAVR and SAVR activity in England following the COVID-19 outbreak. This situation should be monitored closely, to ensure that monthly activity rapidly returns to expected levels. There is potential for significant backlog in the near-to-medium term, and potential for increased mortality in this population.

Objectives\ud We explore whether same day discharge (SDD) is a feasible and safe practice following rotational atherectomy (ROTA) treatment during elective percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI), and examine which baseline characteristics are independently associated with SDD. \ud Background \ud SDD following elective ROTA PCI is not recommended as per the recent SCAI consensus. However, reports show it is practiced and no previous study has evaluated its safety and feasibility. \ud Methods\ud Our dataset included 4,591 patients undergoing elective ROTA PCI in England & Wales within an 8-years period. Independent associations with SDD were quantified via a multiple logistic regression model and the BCIS 30-day mortality risk model was used to evaluate the safety of SDD. \ud Results\ud The majority of elective ROTA PCI cases remain at the hospital for overnight (ON) observation, although SDD rates increased substantially from 6.7% in 2007 to 35.5% in 2014. The use of glycoprotein IIb/IIIa antagonists, Q wave AMI, left main PCI and valvular heart disease were independently associated with ON, while patients operated underwent transradial PCI were more likely to be SDD (OR=1.77, 95% CI [1.45-2.15]). Over the study period, observed mortality rates were not significantly higher than those expected from the BCIS risk model.\ud Conclusions\ud Our findings did not show superiority of the ON strategy over SDD for higher risk cases undergoing elective ROTA PCI, in terms of 30-day mortality. This is the first study to examine the safety of SDD after elective ROTA PCI and more should follow.

Background Antimicrobial resistance is driven by the overuse of antibiotics. This study aimed to develop and validate clinical prediction models for the risk of infection-related hospital admission with upper respiratory infection (URTI), lower respiratory infection (LRTI) and urinary tract infection (UTI). These models were used to investigate whether there is an association between the risk of an infection-related complication and the probability of receiving an antibiotic prescription. Methods The study used electronic health record data from general practices contributing to the Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD GOLD) and Welsh Secure Anonymised Information Linkage (SAIL), both linked to hospital records. Patients who visited their general practitioner with an incidental URTI, LRTI or UTI were included and followed for 30 days for hospitalisation due to infection-related complications. Predictors included age, gender, clinical and medication risk factors, ethnicity and socioeconomic status. Cox proportional hazards regression models were used with predicted risks independently validated in SAIL. Results The derivation and validation cohorts included 8.1 and 2.7 million patients in CPRD and SAIL, respectively. A total of 7125 (0.09%) hospital admissions occurred in CPRD and 7685 (0.28%) in SAIL. Important predictors included age and measures of comorbidity. Initial attempts at validating in SAIL (i.e. transporting the models with no adjustment) indicated the need to recalibrate the models for age and underlying incidence of infections; internal bootstrap validation of these updated models yielded C-statistics of 0.63 (LRTI), 0.69 (URTI) and 0.73 (UTI) indicating good calibration. For all three infection types, the rate of antibiotic prescribing was not associated with patients’ risk of infection-related hospital admissions. Conclusion The risk for infection-related hospital admissions varied substantially between patients, but prescribing of antibiotics in primary care was not associated with risk of hospitalisation due to infection-related complications. Our findings highlight the potential role of clinical prediction models to help inform decisions of prescribing of antibiotics in primary care.

Background This study sought to investigate the safety and feasibility of same day discharge (SDD) practice and compare clinical outcomes to patients admitted for overnight stay (ON) undergoing elective left main stem (LMS) percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI). ON observation is still widely practiced in highly complex PCI as the standard of care, with no previous data comparing clinical outcomes in patients undergoing LMS PCI. Methods We analysed 6452 patients undergoing elective LMS PCI between 2007 and 2014 in England and Wales. Multiple logistic regressions and the BCIS risk model were used to study association between SDD and 30 day mortality. Results SDD rates almost doubled from 19.9% in 2007 to 39.8% in 2014 for all LMS procedures and increased from 20.7% to 41.4% for unprotected LMS cases during the same study period. There was a significant increase in procedural complexity with higher use of rotational atherectomy, longer stents and multivessel PCI. SDD was not associated with increased 30 day mortality (OR 0.70 95%CI 0.30–1.65) in the overall LMS PCI cohort and the results were similar in unprotected LMS (OR 0.48 95%CI 0.17–1.41) and those requiring ON stay (OR 0.58 95%CI 0.25–1.34). Conclusions We did not find evidence that SDD is not safe or feasible in highly complex LMS PCI procedures despite increasing procedural complexity with no significant increase in 30 day mortality rates., Highlights • In a national analysis of 6452 elective procedures undertaken for left main stem disease in United Kingdom, SDD practice was associated with similar risk of 30 day mortality compared to ON stay despite an increase complexity of procedure. • SDD did not appear inferior to ON stay even in highly complex left main stem PCI procedures.

Objective To review and appraise the validity and usefulness of published and preprint reports of prediction models for prognosis of patients with covid-19, and for detecting people in the general population at increased risk of covid-19 infection or being admitted to hospital or dying with the disease.Design Living systematic review and critical appraisal by the covid-PRECISE (Precise Risk Estimation to optimise covid-19 Care for Infected or Suspected patients in diverse sEttings) group.Data sources PubMed and Embase through Ovid, up to 17 February 2021, supplemented with arXiv, medRxiv, and bioRxiv up to 5 May 2020.Study selection Studies that developed or validated a multivariable covid-19 related prediction model.Data extraction At least two authors independently extracted data using the CHARMS (critical appraisal and data extraction for systematic reviews of prediction modelling studies) checklist; risk of bias was assessed using PROBAST (prediction model risk of bias assessment tool).Results 126 978 titles were screened, and 412 studies describing 731 new prediction models or validations were included. Of these 731, 125 were diagnostic models (including 75 based on medical imaging) and the remaining 606 were prognostic models for either identifying those at risk of covid-19 in the general population (13 models) or predicting diverse outcomes in those individuals with confirmed covid-19 (593 models). Owing to the widespread availability of diagnostic testing capacity after the summer of 2020, this living review has now focused on the prognostic models. Of these, 29 had low risk of bias, 32 had unclear risk of bias, and 545 had high risk of bias. The most common causes for high risk of bias were inadequate sample sizes (n=408, 67%) and inappropriate or incomplete evaluation of model performance (n=338, 56%). 381 models were newly developed, and 225 were external validations of existing models. The reported C indexes varied between 0.77 and 0.93 in development studies with low risk of bias, and between 0.56 and 0.78 in external validations with low risk of bias. The Qcovid models, the PRIEST score, Carr’s model, the ISARIC4C Deterioration model, and the Xie model showed adequate predictive performance in studies at low risk of bias. Details on all reviewed models are publicly available at https://www.covprecise.org/.Conclusion Prediction models for covid-19 entered the academic literature to support medical decision making at unprecedented speed and in large numbers. Most published prediction model studies were poorly reported and at high risk of bias such that their reported predictive performances are probably optimistic. Models with low risk of bias should be validated before clinical implementation, preferably through collaborative efforts to also allow an investigation of the heterogeneity in their performance across various populations and settings. Methodological guidance, as provided in this paper, should be followed because unreliable predictions could cause more harm than benefit in guiding clinical decisions. Finally, prediction modellers should adhere to the TRIPOD (transparent reporting of a multivariable prediction model for individual prognosis or diagnosis) reporting guideline.Systematic review registration Protocol https://osf.io/ehc47/, registration https://osf.io/wy245.Readers’ note This article is the final version of a living systematic review that has been updated over the past two years to reflect emerging evidence. This version is update 4 of the original article published on 7 April 2020 (BMJ 2020;369:m1328). Previous updates can be found as data supplements (https://www.bmj.com/content/369/bmj.m1328/related#datasupp). When citing this paper please consider adding the update number and date of access for clarity.

Clinical prediction models aim to predict outcomes in individuals, to inform diagnosis or prognosis in healthcare. Hundreds of prediction models are published in the medical literature each year, yet many are developed using a dataset that is too small for the total number of participants or outcome events. This leads to inaccurate predictions and consequently incorrect healthcare decisions for some individuals. In this article, the authors provide guidance on how to calculate the sample size required to develop a clinical prediction model.

Background: Financial pressures for reducing hospitalization costs have driven to a move toward same day discharge (SDD) following uncomplicated percutaneous coronary intervention. The UK healthcare system has transitioned to predominantly SDD for elective percutaneous coronary intervention. This study aimed to examine patient’s clinical, procedural, and institutional characteristics that are associated with the increased adoption of SDD adoption over time in the United Kingdom and determine whether these vary by region. Methods: The data were derived from the British Cardiovascular Intervention Society including all the elective percutaneous coronary intervention from 2007 to 2014 in the United Kingdom. We structured 8 meaningful groups of variables, and their relative importance was obtained by decomposing the R 2 in each study year. Results: The relative importance of Strategic Health Authorities was substantially higher than all other factors every year, with some reduction over time, from 49.2% (95% CI, 45.4%–52.4%) in 2007 to 43.4% (95% CI, 39.9%–46.6%) in 2014. Center volume followed with 8.95% (95% CI, 7.0%–10.9%) to 19.8% (95% CI, 16.7%–22.4%). Between patients’ clinical and procedural characteristics, pharmacology and access site had the highest relative importance values, from 14.3% (95% CI, 12.1%–16.4%) to 7.1% (95% CI, 5.5%–8.8%) and from 3.6% (95% CI, 2.3%–5.1%) to 11.8% (95% CI, 9.4%–14.3%), respectively. Relative importance of different groups varied differently across Strategic Health Authorities. Conclusions: Growth of SDD was mainly associated with regional characteristics, while subcontributors varied substantially between different regions. Standardized guidelines would provide more homogenous adoption of SDD nationally. This analysis might be of wider interest in healthcare systems slower in SDD adoption.

Aims To study the outcomes of cancer patients undergoing cardiac implantable electronic device (CIED) implantation. Methods and results De novo CIED implantations (2004–15; n = 2 670 590) from the National Inpatient Sample were analysed for characteristics and in-hospital outcomes, stratified by presence of cancer (no cancer, historical and current cancers) and further by current cancer type (haematological, lung, breast, colon, and prostate). Current and historical cancer prevalence has increased from 3.3% to 7.8%, and 5.8% to 7.8%, respectively, between 2004 and 2015. Current cancer was associated with increased adjusted odds ratio (OR) of major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) [composite of all-cause mortality, thoracic and cardiac complications, and device-related infection; OR 1.26, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.23–1.30], all-cause mortality (OR 1.43, 95% CI 1.35–1.50), major bleeding (OR 1.38, 95% CI 1.32–1.44), and thoracic complications (OR 1.39, 95% CI 1.35–1.43). Differences in outcomes were observed according to cancer type, with significantly worse MACE, mortality and thoracic complications with lung and haematological malignancies, and increased major bleeding in colon and prostate malignancies. The risk of complications was also different according to CIED subtype. Conclusion The prevalence of cancer patients amongst those undergoing CIED implantation has significantly increased over 12 years. Overall, current cancers are associated with increased mortality and worse outcomes, especially in patients with lung, haematological, and colon malignancies whereas there was no evidence that historical cancer had a negative impact on outcomes.

Background Understanding the longitudinal course of non-motor symptoms, and finding markers to predict cognitive decline in Parkinson’s disease (PD), are priorities. Previous work has demonstrated that apathy is one of the only behavioural symptoms that differentiates people with PD and intact cognition from those with mild cognitive impairment (MCI-PD). Other psychiatric symptoms emerge as dementia in PD develops. Objective We explored statistical models of longitudinal change to detect apathy as a behavioural predictor of cognitive decline in PD. Methods We followed 104 people with PD intermittently over 2 years, undertaking a variety of motor, behavioural and cognitive measures. We applied a linear mixed effects model to explore behavioural factors associated with cognitive change over time. Our approach goes beyond conventional modelling based on a random-intercept and slope approach, and can be used to examine the variability in measures within individuals over time. Results Global cognitive scores worsened during the two-year follow-up, whereas the longitudinal evolution of self-rated apathy scores and other behavioural measures was negligible. Level of apathy was negatively (− 0.598) correlated with level of cognitive impairment and participants with higher than average apathy scores at baseline also had poorer cognition. The model indicated that departure from the mean apathy score at any point in time was mirrored by a corresponding departure from average global cognitive score. Conclusion High levels of apathy are predictive of negative cognitive and behavioural outcomes over time, suggesting that apathy may be a behavioural indicator of early cognitive decline. This has clinical and prognostic implications.

BackgroundDischarge against medical advice (AMA) occurs infrequently but is associated with poor outcomes. There are limited descriptions of discharges AMA in national cohorts of patients with acute myocardial infarction (AMI). This study aims to evaluate discharge AMA in AMI and how it affects readmissions.MethodsWe conducted a cohort study of patients with AMI in USA in the Nationwide Readmission Database who were admitted between the years 2010 and 2014. Descriptive statistics were presented for variables according to discharge home or AMA. The primary end point was all-cause 30-day unplanned readmissions and their causes.Results2663 019 patients were admitted with AMI of which 10.3% (n=162 070) of 1569 325 patients had an unplanned readmission within 30 days. The crude rate of discharge AMA remained stable between 2010 and 2014 at 1.5%. Discharge AMA was an independent predictor of unplanned all-cause readmissions (OR 2.27 95% CI 2.14 to 2.40); patients who discharged AMA had >twofold increased crude rate of readmission for AMI (30.4% vs 13.4%) and higher crude rate of admissions for neuropsychiatric reasons (3.2% vs 1.3%). After adjustment, discharge AMA was associated with increased odds of readmissions for AMI (OR 3.65 95% CI 3.31 to 4.03, pConclusionsDischarge AMA occurs in 1.5% of the population with AMI and these patients are at higher risk of early readmissions for re-infarction. Interventions should be developed to reduce discharge AMA in high-risk groups and initiate interventions to avoid adverse outcomes and readmission.

Background Child sexual abuse (CSA) is a major determinant of sexually transmitted infections (STIs). While the absence of an STI does not mean absence of assault, data on the prevalence, timing and outcomes of STI screening in CSA are lacking. Objective To explore the utilisation of STI services for children at Saint Mary’s Sexual Assault Referral Centre (SARC) and investigate characteristics that are associated with timing of STI screening. Participants and setting: 843 (719 females) children (age, 0–17 years) were included, who attended Saint Mary’s SARC in Manchester, UK between 2012 and 2015. Methods We grouped children into those where the STI screen was performed during the forensic medical examination (FME) and those where the STI screen was performed subsequently. We used logistic regression models to estimate odds ratios for the STI screen during FME. Results 65% of participants had an STI screen at time of FME, while the remaining 35% were advised to attend their local Genitourinary Medicine (GUM). 1.5% of the sample tested positive for an STI. Participants with learning disabilities, who had been affected by domestic violence, who were previously consensually sexually active or if alcohol was related to the incident, had significantly lower odds of STI screen during FME. Participants on the child protection/in-need plan had significantly increased odds of STI screen during FME. Conclusions Most participants referred to the GUM service were previously consensually sexually active adolescents. This study suggests several characteristics might be associated with the likelihood of children reporting CSA within the forensic window. These are in addition to previously known determinants such as age.

Background There is limited evidence on the influence of sex on the decision to implant a cardiac resynchronization therapy device with pacemaker (CRT-P) or defibrillator (CRT-D) and the existence of sex-dependent differences in complications that may affect this decision. Methods All patients undergoing de novo CRT implantation (2004-2014) in the United States National Inpatient Sample were included and stratified by device type (CRT-P and CRT-D). Multivariable logistic regression models were conducted to assess the association of female sex with receipt of CRT-D and periprocedural complications. Results Out of 400,823 weighted CRT procedural records, the overall percentages of women undergoing CRT-P and CRT-D implantations were 41.5% and 27.8%, respectively, and these percentages increased compared with men over the study period. Women were less likely to receive CRT-D (odds ratio 0.66, 95% confidence interval 0.64-0.67), and this trend remained stable throughout the study period (P = 0.06). Furthermore, compared with men, women were associated with increased odds of procedure-related complications (bleeding, thoracic, and cardiac) in the CRT-D group but not in the CRT-P group. Factors such as atrial fibrillation, malignancies, renal failure, advanced age (> 60 years), and admission to nonurban/small hospitals favoured the receipt of CRT-P over CRT-D, whereas history of ischemic heart disease, cardiac arrest ,or ventricular arrhythmias favoured the receipt of CRT-D over CRT-P. Conclusions Women were associated with persistently reduced odds of receipt of CRT-D compared with men over an 11-year period. This study identifies important factors that predict the choice of CRT device offered to patients in the United States.

Background Frailty may be an important marker for poor outcomes in percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) and there is limited literature on outcomes based on frailty from national cohorts. Purpose This study evaluates the prevalence of frailty, changes in frailty over time and outcomes associated with frailty in a national American cohort of patients who underwent PCI. Methods The study included adults who underwent PCI in the National Inpatients Sample between 2004 and 2014. Frailty risk was determined using a validated Hospital Frailty Risk Score (HFRS) using the cutoffs 15 corresponding to low, intermediate and high HFRS. Results There were 7,306,007 PCI admissions in this cohort. A total of 94.58%, 5.39% and 0.03% of admissions were for low HFRS, intermediate HFRS and high HFRS, respectively. The proportion of intermediate or high frailty risk patients increased over time from 1.9% in 2004 to 11.7% in 2014. In-hospital death increased from 1.0% with low HFRS to 13.9% with high HFRS and average length of stay increased from 2.9±3.3 days to 17.1±15.5 days from low to high HFRS. Greater frailty risk was associated with greater average inpatient cost which was $17,743±11,059, $38,824±34,809 and $56,119±49,772 for low, intermediate and high HFRS, respectively. There were increased adverse outcomes with high frailty including greater in-hospital death (OR 9.91 95% CI 7.17–13.71), in-hospital bleeding complications (OR 4.99 95% CI 3.82–6.51), in-hospital vascular complications (OR 3.96 95% CI 3.00–5.23) and in-hospital stroke (OR 10.49 95% CI 8.28–13.29) comparing high to low HFRS. Conclusions More than 1 in 20 patients who undergo PCI have intermediate or high risk of frailty which has significantly increased over time. There are poor outcomes and increased inpatient costs associated with greater frailty. Improvements in education of healthcare workers and increased awareness of frailty could facilitate frailty-tailored care to minimise risk of adverse outcomes and its associated costs. Acknowledgement/Funding Research and Development Department at the Royal Stoke Hospital, Keele University and Biosensors International

There is growing awareness that frailty may be an important marker of adverse outcomes in PCI but there is no literature from national cohorts. This study examines a national cohort of patients who underwent percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) regarding the prevalence of frailty, changes over time, and associated outcomes. The National Inpatients Sample was used to identify adults who underwent PCI procedures between 2004 and 2014. Frailty risk was measured using a validated Hospital Frailty Risk Score (HFRS) using the cutoffs 15 for low, intermediate and high HFRS. From 7,306,007 admissions, a total of 94.58% of admissions were for patients who had a low HFRS(15). The prevalence of intermediate or high frailty risk patients has increased over time from 1.9% in 2004 to 11.7% in 2014. The incidence of in-hospital death increased from 1.0% with low HFRS to 13.9% with high HFRS. Mean length of stay also increased from 2.9 days to 17.1 days from low to high HFRS. High frailty risk was independently associated with an OR 9.91 95%CI 7.17-13.71 for in-hospital death, OR 4.99 95%CI 3.82-6.51 for bleeding complications and OR 3.96 95%CI 3.00-5.23 for vascular complications as compared to patients with low risk of HFRS. While rare in frequency overall, frailty is increasing in prevalence in recent years and intermediate and high HFRS associated with increased odds of mortality compared to low risk of frailty.

BACKGROUND: Clinical predictors of future ischemic events in patients with acute coronary syndrome (ACS) are also risk factors for bleeding, with patients often at high-risk of both outcomes. We aimed to define the clinical outcomes and provision of guideline-recommended care in ACS management for different combinations of ischemic and bleeding risk defined using a combined GRACE and CRUSADE score.METHODS: A retrospective observational analysis of a national ACS database was performed for patients with ACS admitted to three tertiary centres from January 2010 to March 2016. Patients were stratified into 9 groups based on possible CRUSADE-GRACE risk combinations. Multiple logistic regression was used to estimate adjusted odds ratios (ORs [95% CI]) for outcomes (in-hospital net adverse cardiac events (NACE), in-hospital all-cause mortality, 30-day mortality and treatment strategy).RESULTS: A total of 17,701 patients were included in the analysis. We observed a graded risk of mortality and adverse events in the high-risk GRACE strata (Groups 3, 6 and 9). Almost a third of patients with ACS were at a 'dual high-risk' (Group 9, 32%) and were independently associated with higher in-hospital NACE (composite of cardiac mortality, all-cause bleeding and re-infarction): aOR 6.33 [3.55, 11.29], all-cause mortality: aOR 14.17 [5.27, 38.1], all-cause bleeding: aOR 4.82 [1.96, 11.86], and 30-day mortality: aOR 10.79 [5.33, 21.81]. This group was also the least likely to be offered coronary angiography (aOR 0.24 [0.20, 0.29]) and dual anti-platelet therapy (aOR 0.26 [0.20, 0.34]).CONCLUSIONS: One in five patients presenting with an ACS are high ischemic and high bleeding risk, and these patients are more likely to experience poor clinical outcomes and reduced odds of receiving guideline-recommended therapy.

Introduction This study aimed to assess Health Related Quality of Life (HRQoL) in patients with non-dysplastic Barrett’s oesophagus (NDBO) and endoscopically treated dysplastic Barrett’s oesophagus (DBO). Methods This quantitative, self-administered questionnaire study was conducted across three NHS hospitals. Data was also collected from three other cohorts; GORD, colonic polyp surveillance and healthy individuals. HRQoL measurement included the Short Form-36 (SF-36), Gastrointestinal Symptom Rating Scale (GSRS), Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale (HADS) and the Cancer Worry Scale (CWS). Fisher’s exact and Spearman’s rank correlation tests were used for analysis alongside propensity score matching to adjust for age, sex and comorbidities. Results 797 participants responded to the survey (response rate 38%), of which 687 were eligible for analysis (NDBO n= 306, DBO n=49, GORD n= 132, Colonic polyps n= 152 and Healthy n=48). Mean SF-36 scores were significantly lower (worse) in the NDBO cohort compared to healthy controls across all 8 domains and both physical and mental component summary scores (p=0.009 – p= Conclusions This study provides a valuable insight into the problems BO patients may face. Based on these findings future care pathways must be more patient focused with greater reassurance and communication to address misconceptions of cancer risk, oesophageal cancer related worry and GORD symptom control.

Background The disparity in outcomes of cardiac electronic device implantations between sexes has been previously demonstrated in device-specific cohorts (eg, implantable cardioverter-defibrillators [ICDs]). However, it is unclear whether sex differences are present with all types of cardiac implantable electronic devices (CIEDs) and, if so, what the trends of such differences have been in recent years. Methods With the use of the National Inpatient Sample, all hospitalizations from 2004 to 2014 for de novo implantation of permanent pacemakers, cardiac resynchronization therapy with or without a defibrillator, and ICDs were analyzed to examine the association between sex and in-hospital acute complications of CIED implantation. Results Out of 2,815,613 hospitalizations for de novo CIED implantation, 41.9% were performed on women. Women were associated with increased adjusted odds (95% confidence interval) of adverse procedural complications (major adverse cardiovascular complications: 1.17 [1.16-1.19]; bleeding: 1.13 [1.12-1.15],-thoracic: 1.42 [1.40-1.44]; cardiac: 1.44 [1.38-1.50]), whereas the adjusted odds of in-hospital all-cause mortality compared with men was 0.96 (0.94-1.00). The odds of adverse complications in the overall CIED cohort were persistently raised in women throughout the study period, whereas similar odds of all-cause mortality across the sexes were observed throughout the study period. Conclusion In a national cohort of CIED implantations we demonstrate that women are at an overall higher risk of procedure-related adverse events compared with men, but not at increased risk of all-cause mortality. Further studies are required to identify procedural techniques that would improve outcomes among women undergoing such procedures.

Introduction Chest pain is one of the most common reasons for presentation to hospital. The objective of the evaluation of patients with chest pain is to identify acute coronary syndrome (ACS) and other serious cardiovascular conditions. However, diagnostics may not be 100% sensitive or specific, and important diagnoses may be missed during initial admission. No prior national study has evaluated readmission for serious cardiovascular events among the cohort of patients who are discharged with a diagnosis of non-specific chest pain. Methods We conducted an analysis of patients with a primary diagnosis of non-specific chest pain in the Nationwide Readmission Database. We determined the rates, trends and predictors of readmission for serious cardiovascular events (ACS, pulmonary embolism (PE) and aortic dissection (AD)) after an inpatient episode. Multiple logistic regressions were used to identify predictors of readmission for ACS, PE and AD and the cost of the readmissions were determined. Results A total of 1,172,430 patients had an index diagnosis of non-specific chest pain between 2010 and 2014. Readmission for ACS, PE and AD were 2.4%, 0.4% and 0.06%, respectively within 6 months of discharge. Variables associated with ACS readmissions were diabetes (OR 1.49 95%CI 1.17–1.32), coronary artery disease (OR 2.29 95%CI 2.15–2.44), previous percutaneous coronary intervention (OR 1.65 95%CI 1.56–1.75), previous coronary artery bypass graft (OR 1.52 95%CI 1.43–1.61) and discharge against medical advice (OR 1.94 95%CI 1.78–2.12). Female patients (OR 0.82 95%CI 0.78–0.86) and patients in whom a coronary angiogram was undertaken (OR 0.48 95%CI 0.45–0.52) were less likely to have a readmission for ACS. Predictors of PE readmission were pulmonary circulatory disorder (OR 2.20 95%CI 1.09–4.43), anaemia (OR 1.62 95%CI 1.40–1.86) and cancer (OR 4.15 95%CI 3.43–5.02). Predictors of AD readmissions were peripheral vascular disease (OR 8.63 95%CI 5.47–13.60) and renal failure (OR 2.08 95%CI 1.34–3.24). There were approximately 5,586 ACS readmissions, 950 pulmonary embolism readmissions and 113 aortic dissection readmissions in our study cohort and the estimated financial impact was $99 million, $17 million and $3.5 million dollars of healthcare expenditure for ACS, PE and AD, respectively. Conclusion Readmissions for serious cardiovascular disease following admission for non-specific chest pain are not uncommon and its financial burden can be significant accounting for approximately $120 million dollars of healthcare expenditure in the United States between 2010 and 2014. Clinicians should be careful to appropriately investigate, risk stratify and tailor services to better manage patients with non-specific chest pain. Conflict of Interest None

Introduction The proportion of elderly patients who undergo percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) is growing. There is increasing awareness that frailty, which is common in the elderly, may be an important marker of adverse outcomes. This study evaluates a national cohort of patients who underwent PCI regarding the prevalence of frailty, changes over time, and associated outcomes using a validated Hospital Frailty Risk Score (HFRS). Methods We included adults who underwent PCI procedures between 2004 and 2014 in the National Inpatients Sample. Frailty risk was measured using a modified HFRS based on ICD-9 codes using the cutoffs 15 for low, intermediate and high HFRS. Multiple logistic regressions were used to examine the associations between HFRS group and adverse outcomes after PCI. Results There were 7,306,007 admissions for PCI and 94.58% had a low HFRS( 15). Frailty increased over time as the prevalence of intermediate or high frailty risk was 1.9% in 2004 to 11.7% in 2014. Common variables contributing to frailty in the PCI cohort appear to be fluid and electrolyte disorder (8.43%), hypotension (4.15%), kidney disease (acute renal failure 5.29%, chronic renal failure 8.88%) and anaemia (5.33%). In-hospital death increased from 1.0% with low HFRS to 13.9% with HFRS and length of stay increased from 2.9 days to 17.1 days from low to high HFRS. A cost difference was observed depending on frailty which was $17,743, $38,824 and $56,119 for low, intermediate and high HFRS, respectively. High frailty risk was independently associated with a significant increase in in-hospital death (OR 9.91 95%CI 7.17–13.71), bleeding complications (OR 4.99 95%CI 3.82–6.51) and vascular complications (OR 3.96 95%CI 3.00–5.23) as compared to patients with low risk of HFRS. Conclusion Frailty is prevalent among patients who undergo PCI. There is a strikingly increased in frailty over time and those with high HFRS had a 10-fold increase in odds of mortality compared to low risk of frailty. Improved education and increased awareness of the impact of frailty could facilitate better tailored care to minimise risk of adverse outcomes and its associated costs in PCI. Conflict of Interest None

Background Determining the prevalence and characteristics of female-perpetrated child sexual abuse (CSA) is fraught with difficultly. There is a historical lack of empirical research and a discrepancy between the number of cases that reach the attention of the authorities and its suspected prevalence in society. It is also noted that for a myriad of reasons many CSA reports do not progress through the criminal justice process so many remain as allegations rather than proven or disproven crimes. Objectives The study set out to answer the research questions: ‘What are the characteristics and context of CSA reportedly perpetrated by females, and what are the similarities and differences in the context of alleged CSA committed by male and female suspects?’ Participants and setting This study presents data from all service users aged 0–17 years (n = 986) that attended Saint Mary's Sexual Assault Referral Centre (SARC) for a forensic medical examination over a three-year period. Methods Data collection was performed retrospectively from the paper case files recorded at the time of attendance. Due to the small number of female suspects, analysis was restricted to frequency calculations. Results Results show females were reportedly involved in the alleged abuse of less than 4% of the children attending SARC. Females appeared more likely to be associated with the alleged abuse of younger children and abuse occurring within the child's home. Conclusions This study's most arresting feature is that despite the large number of CSA cases examined, it was rare to have a female suspect. This study demonstrates how much is still unknown about female-perpetrated CSA.

ObjectiveTo assess health-related quality of life in patients with non-dysplastic Barrett’s oesophagus (NDBO) and endoscopically treated dysplastic Barrett’s oesophagus (DBO).DesignThis quantitative, self-administered questionnaire study was conducted across three National Health Service hospitals. Data were collected from three other cohorts; gastro-oesophageal reflux disease (GORD), colonic polyp surveillance and healthy individuals. Fisher’s exact and Spearman’s rank correlation tests were used for analysis. Propensity score matching adjusted for age, sex and comorbidities.Results687 participants were eligible for analysis (NDBO n=306, DBO n=49, GORD n=132, colonic polyps n=152 and healthy n=48). 53% of NDBO participants reported similarly high cancer worry, comparable to DBO (50%, p=0.933) and colonic polyp participants (51%, p=0.355). Less cancer worry was reported in GORD participants (43.4%, p=0.01 vs NDBO). NDBO participants reported anxiety in 15.8% and depression in 8.6% of cases, which was similar to the other disease cohorts. Moderate or severe heartburn or acid regurgitation was found in 11% and 10%, respectively, in the NDBO cohort, comparable to DBO participants (heartburn 2% p=0.172, acid regurgitation 4% p=0.31) but lower (better) than GORD participants (heartburn 31% p=ConclusionThis study provides insight into the problems Barrett’s oesophagus patients may face. Future care pathways must be more patient focussed to address misconceptions of cancer risk, oesophageal cancer related worry and GORD symptom control.

Transcatheter aortic valve implantation (TAVI) has emerged as the standard treatment option for patients with symptomatic aortic stenosis who are considered intermediate to high surgical risk. Nonetheless, optimal clinical outcomes following the procedure require careful consideration of procedural risk by the Heart Team. While this decision-making could be supported through the development of TAVI-specific clinical prediction models (CPMs), current models remain suboptimal. In this review paper, we aimed to outline the performance of several recently derived TAVI CPMs that predict mortality and present some future research directions. We discuss how the existing risk models have achieved only moderate discrimination but highlight that some of the models are well calibrated across multiple populations, indicating the feasibility of using them to aid benchmarking analyses. Moreover, we suggest that future work should focus on the development of CPMs in cohorts of patients with aortic stenosis that include multiple treatment modalities. Supported by appropriate modelling of ‘what if’ scenarios, this would allow the Heart Teams to predict and compare outcomes across surgical aortic valve replacement, medical management and TAVI, thereby allowing one to personalise treatment decisions to the individual patient. Such a goal could be facilitated by considering novel risk factors, shifting the focus to endpoints other than mortality, and through collaborative efforts to combine the evidence base and existing models across wider populations.

Background Aortic stenosis (AS) is a common valvular abnormality and transcatheter aortic valve implantation (TAVI) is being increasingly used to treat patients considered too high risk for conventional surgery. We aimed to assess the prevalence of comorbid conditions in patients undergoing TAVI using the Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI) and to assess their impact on clinical and procedural outcomes. Methods We analysed 158 patients who underwent a TAVI at our institution between June 2009 and September 2015 to define their co-morbid burden as measured with CCI, and study its impact on procedural characteristics and mortality at 30 days. Results One hundred fifty-eight (158) patients with a mean age of 82 ± 8 years and a mean CCI score of 2.67 underwent a TAVI. Only 12/158 patients had a CCI of 0. The commonest cardiovascular comorbidities were previous myocardial infarction (24%), congestive heart failure (15%) and diabetes mellitus (23%) whilst the commonest non-cardiovascular comorbidities were renal disease (46%) and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) (29%). After multivariable adjustment, CCI was not independently associated with adverse clinical outcomes. The addition of CCI to scoring systems such as Logistic EuroScore (LES) and Society of Thoracic Surgeons (STS) risk models improved the area under the curve from 0.75 (95%CI: 0.44–1.00) and 0.83 (95%CI: 0.64–1.00) to 0.78 (95%CI: 0.53–1.00) and 0.89 (95%CI: 0.78–1.00) respectively. Conclusions The burden of comorbid conditions in patients undergoing TAVI is significant. The CCI score was not independently associated with a higher risk of death but can be useful in addition to LES and STS risk models in informing decision making on the selection of patients for TAVI.

ObjectivesTo investigate the association of the CharlsonComorbidity Index (CCI) with clinical outcomes after transcatheter aortic valve implantation (TAVI).BackgroundPatients undergoing TAVI have high comorbid burden; however, there is limited evidence of its impact on clinical outcomes.MethodsData from 1887 patients from the UK, Canada, Spain, Switzerland and Italy were collected between 2007 and 2016. The association of CCI with 30-day mortality, Valve Academic Research Consortium-2 (VARC-2) composite early safety, long-term survival and length of stay (LoS) was calculated using logistic regression and Cox proportional hazard models, as a whole cohort and at a country level, through a two-stage individual participant data (IPD) random effect meta-analysis.ResultsMost (60%) of patients had a CCI ≥3. A weak correlation was found between the total CCI and four different preoperative risks scores (ρ=0.16 to 0.29), and approximately 50% of patients classed as low risk from four risk prediction models still presented with a CCI ≥3. Per-unit increases in total CCI were not associated with increased odds of 30-day mortality (OR 1.09, 95% CI 0.96 to 1.24) or VARC-2 early safety (OR 1.04, 95% CI 0.96 to 1.14) but were associated with increased hazard of long-term mortality (HR 1.10, 95% CI 1.05 to 1.16). The two-stage IPD meta-analysis indicated that CCI was not associated with LoS (HR 0.97, 95% CI 0.93 to 1.02).ConclusionIn this multicentre international study, patients undergoing TAVI had significant comorbid burden. We found a weak correlation between the CCI and well-established preoperative risks scores. The CCI had a moderate association with long-term mortality up to 5 years post-TAVI.

Background\ud The performance of emerging transcatheter aortic valve implantation (TAVI) clinical prediction models (CPMs) in national TAVI cohorts distinct from those where they have been derived is unknown. This study aimed to investigate the performance of the German Aortic Valve, FRANCE-2, OBSERVANT and American College of Cardiology (ACC) TAVI CPMs compared with the performance of historic cardiac CPMs such as the EuroSCORE and STS-PROM, in a large national TAVI registry.\ud \ud Methods\ud The calibration and discrimination of each CPM were analyzed in 6676 patients from the UK TAVI registry, as a whole cohort and across several subgroups. Strata included gender, diabetes status, access route, and valve type. Furthermore, the amount of agreement in risk classification between each of the considered CPMs was analyzed at an individual patient level.\ud \ud Results\ud The observed 30-day mortality rate was 5.4%. In the whole cohort, the majority of CPMs over-estimated the risk of 30-day mortality, although the mean ACC score (5.2%) approximately matched the observed mortality rate. The areas under ROC curve were between 0.57 for OBSERVANT and 0.64 for ACC. Risk classification agreement was low across all models, with Fleiss's kappa values between 0.17 and 0.50.\ud \ud Conclusions\ud Although the FRANCE-2 and ACC models outperformed all other CPMs, the performance of current TAVI-CPMs was low when applied to an independent cohort of TAVI patients. Hence, TAVI specific CPMs need to be derived outside populations previously used for model derivation, either by adapting existing CPMs or developing new risk scores in large national registries.