1. Sensitivity analysis and probabilistic re-entry modeling for debris using high dimensional model representation based uncertainty treatment.
- Author
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Mehta, Piyush M., Kubicek, Martin, Minisci, Edmondo, and Vasile, Massimiliano
- Subjects
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SPACE debris , *SENSITIVITY analysis , *ARTIFICIAL satellites , *MONTE Carlo method , *GAUSSIAN distribution - Abstract
Well-known tools developed for satellite and debris re-entry perform break-up and trajectory simulations in a deterministic sense and do not perform any uncertainty treatment. The treatment of uncertainties associated with the re-entry of a space object requires a probabilistic approach. A Monte Carlo campaign is the intuitive approach to performing a probabilistic analysis, however, it is computationally very expensive. In this work, we use a recently developed approach based on a new derivation of the high dimensional model representation method for implementing a computationally efficient probabilistic analysis approach for re-entry. Both aleatoric and epistemic uncertainties that affect aerodynamic trajectory and ground impact location are considered. The method is applicable to both controlled and un-controlled re-entry scenarios. The resulting ground impact distributions are far from the typically used Gaussian or ellipsoid distributions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2017
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