21 results on '"Tucker, Joshua"'
Search Results
2. The Effects of WhatsApp on Misinformation Beliefs and Polarization: A WhatsApp Media-Constrained Deactivation
- Author
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Ventura, Tiago, Majumdar, Rajeshwari, Nagler, Jonathan, and Tucker, Joshua
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Communication ,Political Science ,FOS: Political science ,Polarization ,WhatsApp ,Misinformation ,Social and Behavioral Sciences - Abstract
The prevalence of so-called fake news - false or misleading content purposefully produced to resemble news stories - and its potential to influence the public debate, affect citizens’ attitudes, and even distort electoral results has become a widespread concern in our society (Lazer et al., 2018; Tucker et al., 2018). Across distinct scholarly and popular accounts, the role of social media in daily life has often been raised as an environment facilitating the spread of online fake news and accentuating the harmful effects of misinformation on the quality of democratic regimes. Despite great academic interest in the relationship between social media and disinformation, a large part of the scholarship on the effects of social media comes from advanced democracies. Empirical evidence discussing the impact of social media on exposure and beliefs on misinformation in democracies in the Global South is still somewhat sparse (Tucker et al., 2018; Barberá, 2020; Mitchelstein and Boczkowski, 2021). In these young democracies, political institutions are arguably more unstable, identities are commonly more fragmented, and the interference of non-political actors in elections is more recurrent. Therefore, the disruptive role of social media on the quality of democratic regimes may arguably be even more harmful compared to advanced democracies. For years WhatsApp has been the primary social media application in many Global South countries, with several anecdotal and scholarly works suggesting that WhatsApp is the primary channel through which citizens are exposed to misinformation online in the Global South (Machado et al., 2019; Resende et al., 2019; Garimella and Tyson, 2018; Garimella and Eckles, 2020; Batista Pereira et al., ND). The platforms and dynamics differ from those studies in advanced democracies, where Twitter and particularly Facebook have traditionally received more attention for facilitating the spread of online misinformation. To fill these gaps in the literature on social media and misinformation, we propose to conduct a field experiment deployed during the Presidential election in Brazil focusing on reducing users’ exposure to misinformation shared on WhatsApp. Our field experiment will randomly assign users to a Media- Constrained WhatsApp, in which we ask them not to access any media, image, video, or audio received during the weeks up to the forthcoming Presidential election in Brazil on October 3, 2022. After users participate in our Media-Constrained WhatsApp Deactivation for three weeks, we will ask participants to respond a final survey to measure the intervention effects on their ability to identify misinformation and political polarization. The Media-Constrained WhatsApp intervention is motivated by two primary reasons. First, previous literature has suggested that video and images are the primary source of mis- information spreading on WhatsApp in the Global South (Resende et al., 2019; Freitas Melo et al., 2019; Machado et al., 2019; Garimella and Tyson, 2018; Garimella and Eckles, 2020). Second, because of user’s reliance on WhatsApp in daily life, a complete deactivation is unlikely to be feasible from an external validity perspective. Our study makes three primary contributions. We contribute to the growing experimental litera- ture on the political effects of social media usage. So far, no studies have been conducted to identify a causal connection between WhatsApp usage and attitudinal and behavioral outcomes, particularly users’ ability to determine the veracity of online news and the decision to share false information. To date, we are only aware of prior studies identifying the causal effects of a randomized deactivation of Facebook accounts (Hanley et al., 2019; Vanman et al., 2018; Hall et al., 2021; Allcott et al., 2020; Asimovic et al., 2021). Our study is the first to provide a causal link between messaging apps like WhatsApp and users’ behaviors and attitudes. Messaging applications, like WhatsApp, differ from other social media platforms in a few key dimensions. For the specific case of WhatsApp, any communication within the app is end-to-end encrypted, which means that content is effectively unregulated and unmoderated by the platform. In addition, WhatsApp provides several features for viral spreading, such as public and private groups, automatic forwarding, and broadcasting of content to many contacts with just a few taps. Finally, content is not curated by any algorithmic ranking as in other social media applications; all messages are sorted chronologically. These particular affordances justify the purpose of this study, particularly considering that some of these features make the messaging apps a fertile ground for the circulation of misinformation and other harmful campaigns. Second, in contrast to previous studies that use a full deactivation to focus more on outgroup ethnic and partisan hostility and personal well-being, our study focuses primarily on reducing users’ exposure to media content, which the previous literature has suggested is the model category for the spread of misinformation in the Global South. Therefore, our work provide as more robust assessment for the causal effects of social media usage on users’ believes and exposure misinformation (Allcott et al., 2020; Asimovic et al., 2021). Although we also pre-register tests of hypotheses regarding polarization, due to the evidence of media as the main format for the circulation of misinformation on WhatsApp, our study primary focus deals with measuring the effects of the WhatsApp Media Deactivation on misinformation. Our belief is that the subset of people willing to deactivate WhatsApp entirely (a platform used for a great deal of both personal and professional communication, as well as financial transactions such as bill payments) would be a very distinct subsection of the population from whom we would be hesitant to generalize outcomes. Third, social media messaging apps have become the primary means through which online misinformation circulates in major markets in the Global South. We are the first to assess the causal effects of social media usage in the context of elections outside of the United States, providing new insights into studies of social media and politics and bringing greater external validity to related research deployed in other contexts.
- Published
- 2022
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3. How Language Shapes Belief in Misinformation: A Study Among Multilingual Speakers in Ukraine
- Author
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Aslett, Kevin, Erlich, Aaron, Nagler, Jonathan, and Tucker, Joshua
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Political Science ,FOS: Political science ,Social and Behavioral Sciences - Abstract
Scholarship has identified key determinants of people’s belief in misinformation, but our knowledge predominantly comes from English-language misinformation in the United States. However, in the global media environment, multilingual citizens often consume media in more than one language. To this end, we ask how the language in which misinformation is consumed affects belief in misinformation in multilingual media environments? We suggest that the extent to which people believe misinformation will depend on the language in which the misinformation is consumed. We hypothesize that language passes on credibility cues influenced by both domestic status of the language they prefer to speak and international conditions. These cues affect how bilinguals evaluate misinformation in their less preferred language. In a ten-week survey experiment with bilingual adults in Ukraine, we plan to measure if subjects who are asked to evaluate misinformation in their less-preferred language are less likely to believe it.
- Published
- 2022
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4. NewsGuard Impact Evaluation
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Aslett, Kevin, Guess, Andrew, Nagler, Jonathan, and Tucker, Joshua
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Political Science ,FOS: Political science ,Social and Behavioral Sciences - Abstract
Understanding the relationship between digital media literacy and susceptibility to dubious sources of onlinecontent is crucial for designing interventions to counter the spread of misinformation (Guess et al. 2020).Unlike some competencies, these skills can potentially be taught, raising the possibility of scalable solutionsto our informational malaise. This project sets out to understand the lasting impact of such initiativesonline. For this project, we test the efficacy of the web extension NewsGuard on shifting online consumptionfrom unreliable sources known for publishing misleading or false content to credible sources. We test if this will also reduce the level of belief in misinformation and increase trust in credible sources.We test if this intervention has larger effects on sub-populations most vulnerable to fake news and if there are downstream effects on other outcomes (affective polarization, political cynicism, etc.) that correlate with viewing, believing, and sharing news from unreliable sources. The following pre-analysis plan was filed before the researchers gained access to the survey or tracking data.
- Published
- 2022
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5. Crowd-Sourcing COVID-19 Survey Study 1
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Aslett, Kevin, Bonneau, Richard, Tucker, Joshua, Nagler, Jonathan, Persily, Nathaniel, Sanderson, Zeve, and Godel, William
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Political Science ,FOS: Political science ,Social and Behavioral Sciences - Abstract
This individual study is a part of a larger study that is motivated by two very closely related research questions. First, recent literature on fake news identifies some types of individuals most likely to spread fake news across social media platforms. However, previous research has much less to say about who possesses the ability to discern fake from genuine news and, therefore, who is most vulnerable to believing fake news to be true, or, conversely, believing true news to be false. While we seek to test these hypotheses in order to advance scientific understanding of the determinants of susceptibility to believing fake news to be true (or true news to be false), we are also motivated by two pragmatic questions. First, is it possible to ”crowd-source” fact checking in a way that allows us to come reasonably close to matching the performance of professional fact checkers? Second, what is the trade-off between making our crowd representative of the general population – which may be desirable for normative or political reasons – and the average level of the crowd’s accuracy? In answering this second question, we draw upon the empirical findings from our first set of individual-level hypotheses that are laid out in a previous pre-registration (https://osf.io/dp8ze/?view only=4c3c24c0cb9f4625ba2574c7bd5aac9f). In this study we will test a series of hypotheses about the individual-level characteristics associated with correctly discerning fake news from true news. We will compare how individuals evaluate fake news in a normal setting relative to a crisis, such as Covid-19. Previous pilot studies have found that individuals are less likely to match the assessment of professional fact checkers when the partisan slant of a fake news article matches the respondent’s own partisanship than when the partisan slant of a fake news article does not match the individual’s own partisanship. We would like to understand if individuals are more or less susceptible to fake news about a large crisis even (Covid-19). Specifically we would like to test what effect partisanship has on believing fake news stories during a crisis. In the current study, we plan to run a 4-week survey in which individuals evaluate fake and true news stories within 72 hours of their publication online. For the purpose of this study, we will ascertain whether each article is true, false/misleading, or whether the veracity of the story is unclear by having a team of professional fact-checkers label the story along these lines. Respondents in our survey will be required to complete the survey within 24 hours of when the survey is open for responses. Therefore, respondents will evaluate these articles within the first 72 hours after they are published online. Each week the survey will be run for two days (due to difficulties with recruitment on Fridays and necessary fact-checks before the articles go out, the survey will only be open on Tuesdays and Thursdays). Each day the survey runs, a new group of 5 popular articles will be selected for evaluation. These articles are determined to be related to coronavirus if they meet this definition: ”Articles that are directly related to the coronavirus, the causes of coronavirus, the medical and public health consequences of coronavirus, the direct economic and social consequences from coronavirus, and policies related to the pandemic (e.g., lockdowns or “openings”).” To track the information individuals engage with if they choose to search for evidence to evaluate the news article, we run google searches using the headline of the article hourly and scrape the top eleven search results during the 24-hour period in which the survey is open. We collect the URL, headline shown in each google search result, text below the headline shown in each google search result, and the full text from each article that is in the top eleven search results.
- Published
- 2022
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6. How Language Shapes Belief in Misinformation
- Author
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Aslett, Kevin, Erlich, Aaron, Tucker, Joshua, and Nagler, Jonathan
- Subjects
Political Science ,FOS: Political science ,Social and Behavioral Sciences - Abstract
Scholarship has identified key determinants of people’s belief in misinformation, but our knowledge predominantly comes from English-language misinformation in the United States. However, in the global media environment, multilingual citizens often consume media in more than one language. To this end, we ask how the language in which misinformation is consumed affects belief in misinformation in multilingual media environments? We suggest that the extent to which people believe misinformation will depend on the language in which the misinformation is consumed. We hypothesize that language passes on credibility cues influenced by both domestic status of the language they prefer to speak and international conditions. These cues affect how bilinguals evaluate misinformation in their less preferred language. In a ten-week survey experiment with bilingual adults in Ukraine, we plan to measure if subjects who are asked to evaluate misinformation in their less-preferred language are less likely to believe it.
- Published
- 2022
- Full Text
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7. Communism's Shadow : Historical Legacies and Contemporary Political Attitudes
- Author
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Pop-Eleches, Grigore, Tucker, Joshua A., Pop-Eleches, Grigore, and Tucker, Joshua A.
- Published
- 2017
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8. What's left behind when the party's over: survey experiments on the effects of partisan cues in Putin's Russia
- Author
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Brader, Ted A. and Tucker, Joshua A.
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Russia -- Political aspects ,Political parties -- Russia -- Influence -- Public opinion ,Post-communism -- Analysis -- Social aspects -- Political aspects -- Public opinion ,Ex-presidents -- Influence -- Public opinion -- Social aspects -- Political aspects -- Analysis ,Political science - Abstract
We consider the question of whether Russia's greatly weakened political parties might continue to exert an influence on public opinion in twenty-first century Russia. To do so, we carried out a series of survey-based experiments in Moscow in the spring of 2006. We present evidence showing that partisan cues increase support for public policy proposals and make it more likely that respondents will adopt a position on an issue that mirrors their party's preferred position ('opinion taking'), as well as increase the likelihood that respondents will adopt a position on a given issue at all ('opinion giving'). We also present evidence that party cues can sway the opinions of nonpartisans, though such influence may be limited to cases when the position of a party constitutes an unusually informative or credible signal. The findings should be of interest to those concerned with Russia's post-communist political development, those interested more broadly in the effects of partisan cues on political behavior, as well as to scholars trying to characterize the nature of 'competitive authoritarian' regimes. Consideramos la cuestion de si partidos politicos fuertemente debilitados, como es el caso de los partidos rusos, podrian continuar influyendo la opinion publica en la Rusia del siglo XXI. Para responder esto llevamos a cabo una serie de investigaciones basadas en encuestas realizadas en Moscu en la primavera de 2006. Presentamos evidencia que demuestra que las pautas partidistas incrementan el apoyo del publico a sus propuestas de politicas y hacen mas probable que un encuestado conozca la preferencia del partido e incluso la llegue a asumir como suya ('tomando opinion'), asi como que incremente la posibilidad de que ellos adopten una determinada posicion sobre un determinado topico ('dando opinion'). Tambien presentamos evidencia que las pautas del partido pueden producir cambios de opinion, aunque dicha influencia puede estar limitada a casos donde la posicion del partido constituye una senal inusualmente informativa o creible. Los resultados seran de interes para aquellos preocupados por el desarrollo politico de Rusia post-comunista, aquellos interesados mas ampliamente en los efectos de las pautas partidistas en el comportamiento politico, asi como para los academicos que buscan precisar las caracteristicas de los regimenes 'autoritarios competitivos.', The twentieth anniversary of the collapse of the Berlin Wall presents a good impetus to consider some of the overarching themes of the post-communist experience. Undoubtedly, one of the most [...]
- Published
- 2009
9. Pathways to partisanship: evidence from Russia
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Brader, Ted and Tucker, Joshua A.
- Subjects
Political science ,Regional focus/area studies - Abstract
Newly competitive party systems provide an opportunity to observe individuals as they first acquire partisan orientations. The development of partisanship shortly after the advent of multiparty competition in Russia is investigated. Expectations from existing scholarship are grouped into potential 'pathways' to partisanship: political motivation and ability, voting experience, exposure to politics, civic motivations, group pressures, and immersion in social networks. The contributions of these pathways to partisan stability, consistency, and self-identification are assessed. This study examines the origins of party identification in democracies and helps to clarify a discrepancy between theories of partisanship as a crutch for the unaware and evidence that partisans are more sophisticated than their fellow citizens.
- Published
- 2008
10. Transitional winners and losers: attitudes toward EU membership in post-communist countries
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Tucker, Joshua A., Pacek, Alexander C., and Berinsky, Adam J.
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Post-communism -- Economic aspects ,Capitalism -- Political aspects ,Communist countries -- Economic aspects ,Political science ,European Union -- Membership - Abstract
We present a model of citizen support for EU membership designed explicitly for post-communist countries. We posit that membership in the EU can function as an implicit guarantee that the economic reforms undertaken since the end of communism will not be reversed. On this basis, we predict that 'winners' who have benefited from the transition are more likely to support EU membership for their country than 'losers' who have been hurt by the transition. We also predict that supporters of the free market will be more likely to support EU membership than those who oppose the free market. We test these propositions using survey data from ten post-communist countries that have applied for membership in the EU and find strong support for our hypotheses. The article concludes by speculating about the role attitudes towards EU membership may play in the development of partisan preferences.
- Published
- 2002
11. Economic conditions and the vote for incumbent parties in Russia, Poland, Hungary, Slovakia, and the Czech Republic from 1990 to 1996
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Tucker, Joshua A.
- Subjects
Czech Republic -- Economic aspects ,Hungary -- Economic aspects ,Poland -- Economic aspects ,Russia -- Economic aspects ,Slovakia -- Economic aspects ,Elections -- Economic aspects ,Political science ,Regional focus/area studies - Abstract
An American political scientist employs regional electoral, economic, and demographic data across several transition countries--Hungary, Slovakia, Poland, Czech Republic, and Russia--to examine the effects of economic conditions on the electoral fortunes of thirty-two incumbent political parties in ten parliamentary elections. 'Primary Incumbents' and 'Other Incumbents' are distinguished in order to analyze how the 'Degree of Incumbency' affects the relationship between economic conditions and election results for these two different types of incumbents in post-communist countries. The article points to new questions and methods for examining multiparty elections as well as for the relationship between economic conditions and voting outcomes.
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- 2001
12. The Emergence of Mass Partisanship in Russia, 1993-1996
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Brader, Ted and Tucker, Joshua A.
- Subjects
Russia -- Political aspects ,Partisanship -- Russia ,Political parties -- Identification and classification ,Political science research -- Analysis ,Political science - Abstract
Previous studies of Russia search for party identification in an all-or-nothing fashion. We adopt an alternative approach to studying the emergence of mass partisanship in new democracies. In accordance with established theories, we argue that partisanship develops over time and that evidence of partisanship in its early stages may be found in basic behavioral and attitudinal indicators. We stipulate three expectations for the emergence of partisanship: (1) attachment grows with the cumulative effect of political experience; (2) as attachment grows, other views acquire greater partisan consistency; and (3) attachments have a rational basis, Guided by these expectations, we use panel survey data from Russia's early elections to distinguish nascent partisans. Comparison of the behavior of partisans identified by our approach to the behavior of partisans identified using self-reported party identification measures raises doubts about how well self-identification measures capture partisanship in this context.
- Published
- 2001
13. Re/constructing politics through social & online media: Discourses, ideologies, and mediated political practices.
- Author
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Krzyżanowski, Michał and Tucker, Joshua A.
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POLITICAL communication ,SOCIAL media & politics ,ONLINE social networks ,POLITICAL science - Abstract
In recent years, the connection between online and in particular social media and politics has become one of the central ones in contemporary societies, and has been explored very widely in political research and media and communication studies. Against such growing body of research, this Special Issue foregrounds the role of language as a key carrier of political ideologies and practices on social and online media. It aims to advance the scholarly understanding of contemporary political and democratic dynamics by postulating the need for a broader, problemdriven look at how political practices and ideologies are articulated on social and online media. It illustrates the value of a cross-disciplinary take that allows overcoming both the classic (e.g. qualitative vs. quantitative) and the more recent (e.g. small vs. big data) divides in explorations of the language of online and politics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2018
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14. Elections without Order: Russia's Challenge to Vladimir Putin
- Author
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Tucker, Joshua A.
- Subjects
Elections without Order: Russia's Challenge to Vladimir Putin (Book) -- Rose, Richard -- Munro, Neil ,Books -- Book reviews ,Government ,Political science - Abstract
Elections without Order: Russia's Challenge to Vladimir Putin by Richard Rose and Neil Munro. New York: Cambridge University Press, 2002. 262 pp. Cloth, $50.00; paper, $22.00. Richard Rose and Neil [...]
- Published
- 2003
15. When Do Voters Sanction Corrupt Politicians? – Corrigendum.
- Author
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Klašnja, Marko, Lupu, Noam, and Tucker, Joshua A.
- Subjects
POLITICIANS ,VOTERS ,GENDER ,POLITICAL science - Abstract
Lines represent 95% confidence intervals estimated using standard errors clustered by respondent. In the original publication of Klasnja et al. (2021), the authors miscoded the gender of the candidates in the conjoint experiment. When Do Voters Sanction Corrupt Politicians?. [Extracted from the article]
- Published
- 2021
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16. Comparative Opportunities: The Evolving Study of Political Behavior in Eastern Europe.
- Author
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Bernhard, Michael, Jasiewicz, Krzysztof, and Tucker, Joshua A.
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EASTERN European politics & government ,VOTING ,POLITICAL sociology ,PRACTICAL politics ,POLITICAL science - Abstract
As the theoretical rationale (and funding opportunities!) for considering Eastern Europe as a distinct region diminish as we move farther away from the momentous events of 1989, the value of including East-Central European countries in comparative studies has only increased. This article outlines how comparative studies of political behavior involving East-Central European countries have evolved in the author’s own research from comparative studies including Russia along with four East European countries, to more broadly based comparative studies including multiple East European countries and former Soviet Republics, to studies where behavior is analyzed in both East European countries and more established democracies, and finally to large cross-national studies focused on questions related to post-communist politics (namely, the legacy of communism on post-communist attitudes and behavior) but relying on the comparative analysis of survey data from countries around the world. In a way, the research has come full circle, from studies of East European political behavior to better understand East European political behavior, to studies including East European countries to better understand general questions of political behavior not specific to post-communist countries, to now the most extensive comparative studies that are, however, designed once again to better understand East European political attitudes and behavior. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2015
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17. Subjective vs. Objective Proximity in Poland: New Directions for the Empirical Study of Political Representation.
- Author
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Markowski, Radoslaw and Tucker, Joshua
- Subjects
- *
REPRESENTATIVE government , *ELECTIONS , *POLITICAL attitudes , *POLITICAL systems , *VOTING , *POLITICAL science - Abstract
While theoretical questions concerning the nature of political representation have long fascinated political scientists of all stripes, the empirical study of political representation has almost exclusively featured studies of stable, established democracies (Miller and Stokes 1963; Barnes 1977; Dalton 1985; Converse and Pierce 1986; Powell 1989). Moreover, scholars have devoted most of their energy to attempting to measure the general "representativeness" of different political systems. Left largely unexplored - despite its role as an underlying motivating feature of the whole enterprise - has been the manner in which representation affects the political attitudes and behavior of members of the electorate. We take up precisely this question as we concurrently shift the focus of our study to one of Europe's most important new democracies: Poland, the largest of the so called new "EU 12". We introduce a new dataset, the 2005 Polish National Election Study (Polish NES), which was specifically designed to study the topic of political representation. We use the Polish NES to test a wide range of important but relatively unexplored questions concerning the effects of sharing policy positions with political parties. More specifically, we examine whether being closer on issues to a given party increases the likelihood of voting for (or expressing a preference for in the case of non-voters) that party, and whether that effect is stronger for subjective or objective proximity. We also test whether being closer to one's preferred party is related to feelings of partisanship, consistency in voting patterns, participation in elections, feeling efficacious in regard to the government, and satisfaction with democracy, and we can examine whether this relationship is more important for different versions of objective proximity. We present a variety of findings in the text, but two of the most important are that: (1) smaller perceived distance from a given party ("subjective proximity") is always correlated with a preference/vote for that party, even when this is not the case using objective measures of the party's position; and (2) closer proximity to one's party in both subjective and objective terms is related to more overall satisfaction with the political system, but not necessarily stronger feelings of partisanship or a greater likelihood of participating in the political system though voting. In doing so, we begin the task of demonstrating empirically the claim that theorists of political representation have long held to be true: that the extent to which a party "represents" its electorate on policy issues does indeed have consequences for how individuals view and interact with the political system. ..PAT.-Unpublished Manuscript [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2007
18. People Power or a One-Shot Deal? A Dynamic Model of Protest.
- Author
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Meirowitz, Adam and Tucker, Joshua A.
- Subjects
PROTEST movements ,MOTIVATION (Psychology) ,POLITICAL science ,DEMOCRACY ,NEW democracies ,MIDDLE Eastern politics & government ,TWENTY-first century ,SOCIAL history - Abstract
In the aftermath of the Arab Spring, a crucial question is whether popular protest is now likely to be a permanent part of Middle Eastern politics or if the protests that have taken place over the past two years are more likely to be a 'one-shot deal.' We consider this question from a theoretical perspective, focusing on the relationship between the consequences of protests in one period and the incentives to protest in the future. The model provides numerous predictions for why we might observe a phenomenon that we call the 'one-shot deal': when protest occurs at one time but not in the future despite an intervening period of bad governance. The analysis focuses on the learning process of citizens. We suggest that citizens may not only be discovering the type or quality of their new government-as most previous models of adverse selection assume-but rather citizens may also be learning about the universe of potential governments in their country. In this way, bad performance by one government induces some pessimism about possible replacements. This modeling approach expands the formal literature on adverse selection in elections in two ways: it takes seriously the fact that removing governments can be costly, and it explores the relevance of allowing the citizen/principal to face uncertainty about the underlying distribution from which possible government/agent types are drawn. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2013
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19. THE FIRST DECADE OF POST-COMMUNIST ELECTIONS AND VOTING: What Have We Studied, and How Have We Studied It?
- Author
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Tucker, Joshua A.
- Subjects
- *
POSTCOMMUNISM , *POLITICAL campaigns , *POLITICAL science , *DATABASES - Abstract
Provides information on a study which assessed the state of emerging field of the post-communist elections and voting by building and analyzing a database of articles on the topic between 1990 and 2000. Overview of a database of journal articles; Discussion on how scholars have studied elections and voting in post-communist countries; Types of elections studied; Topics to be studied on elections and voting.
- Published
- 2002
- Full Text
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20. It's a Multifaceted Economic Effect, Stupid! Conventional vs. Transitional Economic Voting in Poland, 1997-2005.
- Author
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Owen, Andrew and Tucker, Joshua A.
- Subjects
- *
ELECTIONS & economics , *POLITICAL participation , *POLITICAL science , *ECONOMIC voting - Abstract
We provide the first systematic test at the micro-level contrasting the predictions of a standard incumbency-based model of economic voting ( "Conventional Economic Voting") in the post-communist context with a Transitional Economic Voting model focusing on particular "types" of parties. We do so by analyzing party preferences across the three most recent Polish parliamentary elections. Our findings present a nuanced picture that suggest multiple paths for economic influences on voting in the post-communist context. This is in part due to what we feel is an important novel contribution of the paper, which is our use of longer, "transitional" economic evaluations (e.g., "do you feel the economy has improved since the collapse of communism?) in our analyses, in addition to conventional short-term retrospective evaluations ("do you feel the economy has improved or in the past 12 months"?). We do find clear evidence of support for the Conventional Economic Voting approach, but this evidence is limited to a specific set of evaluations to which the theory is most appropriately applied: short-term retrospective evaluations and the vote for incumbent parties. The Transitional Model, on the other hand, is strongly supported by the presence of relationships between longer term transitional retrospective evaluations across a range of parties. Moreover, we even find some support for the Transitional Model in predicting the effect of short term economic evaluations. In particular, a number of reformist ("New Regime") parties are preferred by people who think the economy has been improving in the past 12 months, a finding that is largely at odds with incumbency-centered models of economic voting. ..PAT.-Unpublished Manuscript [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2007
21. Don’t Republicans Tweet Too? Using Twitter to Assess the Consequences of Political Endorsements by Celebrities
- Author
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Cristian Vaccari, Jan Zilinsky, Joshua A. Tucker, Jonathan Nagler, Zilinsky, Jan, Vaccari, Cristian, Nagler, Jonathan, and Tucker, Joshua A.
- Subjects
Presidential system ,Presidential election ,celebrities, us 2016 presidential election, social media, political communication, digital media ,05 social sciences ,Media studies ,050801 communication & media studies ,0506 political science ,Chose ,Politics ,0508 media and communications ,Political science ,Political Science and International Relations ,050602 political science & public administration ,Social media - Abstract
Michael Jordan supposedly justified his decision to stay out of politics by noting that Republicans buy sneakers too. In the social media era, the name of the game for celebrities is engagement with fans. So why then do celebrities risk talking about politics on social media, which is likely to antagonize a portion of their fan base? With this question in mind, we analyze approximately 220,000 tweets from 83 celebrities who chose to endorse a presidential candidate in the 2016 U.S. presidential election campaign to assess whether there is a cost—defined in terms of engagement on Twitter—for celebrities who discuss presidential candidates. We also examine whether celebrities behave similarly to other campaign surrogates in being more likely to take on the “attack dog” role by going negative more often than going positive. More specifically, we document how often celebrities of distinct political preferences tweet about Donald Trump, Bernie Sanders, and Hillary Clinton, and we show that followers of opinionated celebrities do not withhold engagement when entertainers become politically mobilized and do indeed often go negative. Interestingly, in some cases political content from celebrities actually turns out to be more popular than typical lifestyle tweets.
- Published
- 2020
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