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Aim: Decreased cancer incidence and reported changes to clinical management indicate that the COVID‐19 pandemic has delayed cancer diagnosis and treatment. This study aimed to develop and apply a flexible model to estimate the impact of delayed diagnosis and treatment on survival outcomes and healthcare costs based on a shift in the disease stage at treatment initiation. Methods: A model was developed and made publicly available to estimate population‐level health economic outcomes by extrapolating and weighing stage‐specific outcomes by the distribution of stages at treatment initiation. It was applied to estimate the impact of 3‐ and 6‐month delays based on Australian data for stage I breast cancer, colorectal cancer, and lung cancer patients, and for T1 melanoma. Two approaches were explored to estimate stage shifts following a delay: (a) based on the relation between time to treatment initiation and overall survival (breast, colorectal, and lung cancer), and (b) based on the tumor growth rate (melanoma). Results: Using a conservative once‐off 3‐month delay and considering only shifts from stage I/T1 to stage II/T2, 88 excess deaths and $12 million excess healthcare costs were predicted in Australia over 5 years for all patients diagnosed in 2020. For a 6‐month delay, excess mortality and healthcare costs were 349 deaths and $46 million over 5 years. Conclusions: The health and economic impacts of delays in treatment initiation cause an imminent policy concern. More accurate individual patient data on shifts in stage of disease during and after the COVID‐19 pandemic are critical for further analyses. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aims: To explore the relationship between blood sampling techniques and haemolysis. Background: Haemolysis rates of blood samples have been thought to be influenced by the method of collection. There is a lack of research evidence available to clearly show the comparative risk of haemolysis across different blood sampling methods, including venepuncture and use of peripheral intravenous cannulas. Design: A prospective cohort study. Reporting followed the STROBE checklist. Methods: A trained observer was used to record blood sampling techniques over a 10‐week period between April and June 2019. These records were then linked to pathology haemolysis results. Multivariable logistic regression was used to model patient and blood draw characteristics affecting haemolysis. Results: Most of the blood samples were not haemolysed (n = 324, 87.1%). Multivariable analysis showed haemolysis was associated with increased tourniquet duration and if the level of tube was less than half full. Univariable analysis showed haemolysis was associated with increased age of the patient, the difficulty of cannulation/ venepuncture and increased number of attempts. No difference was found in the haemolysis rate related to the qualification of the blood collector. Conclusion: There was no significant difference in haemolysis rates associated with sampling blood from a PIVC compared with venepuncture. Research should be undertaken to determine whether education on the factors influencing haemolysis is useful in decreasing haemolysis rates. Relevance to clinical practice: There was no association with increased haemolysis rates when drawing blood via venepuncture compared with a peripheral intravenous cannula. Haemolysis of blood samples was associated with increased tourniquet duration, if level of the tube was less than half‐filled, increased age of the patient and difficulty of blood draw. Awareness of the risk of haemolysis associated with specific blood sampling methods may assist clinicians to improve care. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: The Melanoma Genomics Managing Your Risk Study is a randomised controlled trial that aims to evaluate the efficacy of providing information on personal genomic risk of melanoma in reducing ultraviolet radiation (UV) exposure, stratified by traditional risk group (low or high phenotypic risk) in the general population. The primary outcome is objectively measured total daily Standard Erythemal Doses at 12 months. Secondary outcomes include UV exposure at specific time periods, self-reported sun protection and skin-examination behaviours, psychosocial outcomes, and ethical considerations surrounding offering genomic testing at a population level. A within-trial and modelled economic evaluation will be undertaken from an Australian health system perspective to assess the cost-effectiveness of the intervention.Objective: To publish the pre-determined statistical analysis plan (SAP) before database lock and the start of analysis.Methods: This SAP describes the data synthesis, analysis principles and statistical procedures for analysing the outcomes from this trial. The SAP was approved after closure of recruitment and before completion of patient follow-up. It outlines the planned primary analyses and a range of subgroup and sensitivity analyses. Health economic outcomes are not included in this plan but will be analysed separately. The SAP will be adhered to for the final data analysis of this trial to avoid potential analysis bias that may arise from knowledge of the outcome data.Results: This SAP is consistent with best practice and should enable transparent reporting.Conclusion: This SAP has been developed for the Melanoma Genomics Managing Your Risk Study and will be followed to ensure high-quality standards of internal validity and to minimise analysis bias.Trial Registration: Prospectively registered with the Australian New Zealand Clinical Trials Registry, ID: ACTR N12617000691347 . Registered on 15 May 2017. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

While medical research continues to investigate the genetic basis of cancer, and personalised prevention gains momentum, little research has been conducted with the individuals who decline predictive genetic testing for cancer. We recruited individuals who had been offered genetic testing for Lynch syndrome or bi-allelic MUTYH mutations due to their participation in a large, population-based, Australia-wide colorectal cancer study. Thirty-three individuals in mutation-carrying families, unaffected by cancer, who had actively or passively declined testing at one of four decision-making points, took part in a qualitative interview about their decision. Data analysis revealed a typology of 'decliners': (1) uninformed about genetic testing; (2) a weak intention to undergo genetic testing; (3) conditionally declining; and (4) unconditionally declining testing. In this population we found substantial barriers to achieving the benefits promised by predictive genetic testing; a lack of knowledge of the availability of genetic testing; a lack of trust in genetic test information; a desire to see a stronger benefit from genetic testing before proceeding; and a sense that there may be more negative than positive outcomes from genetic testing. These discourses must be addressed if medical research on the genetic basis of cancer continues to be funded, and personalised prevention of cancer continues to be recommended by experts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Mammographic density defined by the conventional pixel brightness threshold, and adjusted for age and body mass index (BMI), is a well-established risk factor for breast cancer. We asked if higher thresholds better separate women with and without breast cancer.Methods: We studied Australian women, 354 with breast cancer over-sampled for early-onset and family history, and 944 unaffected controls frequency-matched for age at mammogram. We measured mammographic dense area and percent density using the CUMULUS software at the conventional threshold, which we call Cumulus , and at two increasingly higher thresholds, which we call Altocumulus and Cirrocumulus , respectively. All measures were Box-Cox transformed and adjusted for age and BMI. We estimated the odds per adjusted standard deviation (OPERA) using logistic regression and the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC).Results: Altocumulus and Cirrocumulus were correlated with Cumulus (r ∼ 0.8 and 0.6 , respectively) . For dense area, the OPERA was 1.62, 1.74 and 1.73 for Cumulus, Altocumulus and Cirrocumulus , respectively (all P  < 0.001). After adjusting for Altocumulus and Cirrocumulus , Cumulus was not significant ( P  > 0.6). The OPERAs for percent density were less but gave similar findings. The mean of the standardized adjusted Altocumulus and Cirrocumulus dense area measures was the best predictor; OPERA = 1.87 [95% confidence interval (CI): 1.64-2.14] and AUC = 0.68 (0.65-0.71).Conclusions: The areas of higher mammographically dense regions are associated with almost 30% stronger breast cancer risk gradient, explain the risk association of the conventional measure and might be more aetiologically important. This has substantial implications for clinical translation and molecular, genetic and epidemiological research. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Initially submitted February 1, 2016; accepted for publication August 4, 2016. The ability to classify people according to their underlying genetic susceptibility to a disease is increasing with new knowledge, better family data, and more sophisticated risk prediction models, allowing for more effective prevention and screening. To do so, however, we need to know whether risk associations are the same for people with different genetic susceptibilities. To illustrate one way to estimate such gene-environment interactions, we used prospective data from 3 Australian family cancer cohort studies, 2 enriched for familial risk of breast cancer. There were 288 incident breast cancers in 9,126 participants from 3,222 families. We used Cox proportional hazards models to investigate whether associations of breast cancer with body mass index (BMI; weight (kg)/height (m)2) at age 18-21 years, BMI at baseline, and change in BMI differed according to genetic risk based on lifetime breast cancer risk from birth, as estimated by BOADICEA (Breast and Ovarian Analysis of Disease Incidence and Carrier Estimation Algorithm) software, adjusted for age at baseline data collection. Although no interactions were statistically significant, we have demonstrated the power with which gene-environment interactions can be investigated using a cohort enriched for persons with increased genetic risk and a continuous measure of genetic risk based on family history. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: In Australia, screening for colorectal cancer (CRC) with colonoscopy is meant to be reserved for people at increased risk, however, currently there is a mismatch between individuals' risk of CRC and the type of CRC screening they receive. This paper describes the development and optimisation of a Colorectal cancer RISk Prediction tool ('CRISP') for use in primary care. The aim of the CRISP tool is to increase risk-appropriate CRC screening.Methods: CRISP development was informed by previous experience with developing risk tools for use in primary care and a systematic review of the evidence. A CRISP prototype was used in simulated consultations by general practitioners (GPs) with actors as patients. GPs were interviewed to explore their experience of using CRISP, and practice nurses (PNs) and practice managers (PMs) were interviewed after a demonstration of CRISP. Transcribed interviews and video footage of the 'consultations' were qualitatively analyzed. Themes arising from the data were mapped onto Normalization Process Theory (NPT).Results: Fourteen GPs, nine PNs and six PMs were recruited from 12 clinics. Results were described using the four constructs of NPT: 1) Coherence: Clinicians understood the rationale behind CRISP, particularly since they were familiar with using risk tools for other conditions; 2) Cognitive participation: GPs welcomed the opportunity CRISP provided to discuss healthy and unhealthy behaviors with their patients, but many GPs challenged the screening recommendation generated by CRISP; 3) Collective Action: CRISP disrupted clinician-patient flow if the GP was less comfortable with computers. GP consultation time was a major implementation barrier and overall consensus was that PNs have more capacity and time to use CRISP effectively; 4) Reflexive monitoring: Limited systematic monitoring of new interventions is a potential barrier to the sustainable embedding of CRISP.Conclusions: CRISP has the potential to improve risk-appropriate CRC screening in primary care but was considered more likely to be successfully implemented as a nurse-led intervention. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Recent guidelines recommend the Lynch Syndrome prediction models MMRPredict, MMRPro, and PREMM1,2,6 for the identification of MMR gene mutation carriers. We compared the predictive performance and clinical usefulness of these prediction models to identify mutation carriers.Methods: Pedigree data from CRC patients in 11 North American, European, and Australian cohorts (6 clinic- and 5 population-based sites) were used to calculate predicted probabilities of pathogenic MLH1, MSH2, or MSH6 gene mutations by each model and gene-specific predictions by MMRPro and PREMM1,2,6. We examined discrimination with area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), calibration with observed to expected (O/E) ratio, and clinical usefulness using decision curve analysis to select patients for further evaluation. All statistical tests were two-sided.Results: Mutations were detected in 539 of 2304 (23%) individuals from the clinic-based cohorts (237 MLH1, 251 MSH2, 51 MSH6) and 150 of 3451 (4.4%) individuals from the population-based cohorts (47 MLH1, 71 MSH2, 32 MSH6). Discrimination was similar for clinic- and population-based cohorts: AUCs of 0.76 vs 0.77 for MMRPredict, 0.82 vs 0.85 for MMRPro, and 0.85 vs 0.88 for PREMM1,2,6. For clinic- and population-based cohorts, O/E deviated from 1 for MMRPredict (0.38 and 0.31, respectively) and MMRPro (0.62 and 0.36) but were more satisfactory for PREMM1,2,6 (1.0 and 0.70). MMRPro or PREMM1,2,6 predictions were clinically useful at thresholds of 5% or greater and in particular at greater than 15%.Conclusions: MMRPro and PREMM1,2,6 can well be used to select CRC patients from genetics clinics or population-based settings for tumor and/or germline testing at a 5% or higher risk. If no MMR deficiency is detected and risk exceeds 15%, we suggest considering additional genetic etiologies for the cause of cancer in the family. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background Mutations in the CDKN2A and CDK4 genes predispose to melanoma. From three case-control studies of cutaneous melanoma, we estimated the prevalence and predictors of these mutations for people from regions with widely differing latitudes and melanoma incidence. Methods Population-based cases and controls from the United Kingdom (1586 cases, 499 controls) and Australia (596 early-onset cases, 476 controls), and a hospital-based series from Spain (747 cases, 109 controls), were screened for variants in all exons of CDKN2A and the p16INK4A binding domain of CDK4. Results The prevalence of mutations for people with melanoma was similar across regions: 2.3%, 2.5% and 2.0% for Australia, Spain and the United Kingdom respectively. The strongest predictors of carrying a mutation were having multiple primaries (odds ratio (OR) = 5.4, 95% confidence interval (CI: 2.5, 11.6) for 2 primaries and OR = 32.4 (95% CI: 14.7, 71.2) for 3 or more compared with 1 primary only); and family history (OR = 3.8; 95% CI:1.89, 7.5) for 1 affected first- or second-degree relative and OR = 23.2 (95% CI: 11.3, 47.6) for 2 or more compared with no affected relatives). Only 1.1% of melanoma cases with neither a family history nor multiple primaries had mutations. Conclusions There is a low probability (<2%) of detecting a germline CDKN2A mutation in people with melanoma except for those with a strong family history of melanoma (≥2 affected relatives, 25%), three or more primary melanomas (29%), or more than one primary melanoma who also have other affected relatives (27%). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: With 14.234 diagnoses and over 4047 deaths reported in 2007, colorectal cancer (CRC) is the second most common cancer and second most common cause of cancer-related mortality in Australia. The direct treatment cost has recently been estimated to be around AU$1.2 billion for the year 2011, which corresponds to a four-fold increase, compared the cost reported in 2001. Excluding CRCs due to known rare genetic disorders, 20% to 25% of all CRCs occur in a familial aggregation setting due to genetic variants or shared environmental risk factors that are yet to be characterised. A targeted screening strategy addressed to this segment of the population is a potentially valuable tool for reducing the overall burden of CRC. Methods: We developed a Markov model to assess the cost-effectiveness of three screening strategies offered to people at increased risk due to a strong family history of CRC. The model simulated the evolution of a cohort of 10,000 individuals from age 50 to 90 years. We compared screening with biennial iFOBT, five-yearly colonoscopy and ten-yearly colonoscopy versus the current strategy of the Australian National Bowel Cancer Screening Programme (i.e. base case). Results: Under the NBCSP scenario, 6,491 persons developed CRC with an average screening lifetime cost of AU$3,441 per person. In comparison, screening with biennial iFOBT, colonoscopy every ten years, and colonoscopy every five years reduced CRC incidence by 27%, 35% and 60%, and mortality by 15%, 26% and 46% respectively. All three screening strategies had a cost under AU$50,000 per life year gained, which is regarded as the upper limit of acceptable cost-effectiveness in the Australian health system. At AU$12,405 per life year gained and an average lifetime expectancy of 16.084 years, five-yearly colonoscopy screening was the most cost-effective strategy. Conclusion: The model demonstrates that intensive colorectal cancer screening strategies targeting people at increased risk would be cost-effective in the Australian context. Our findings provide evidence that substantial health benefits can be generated from risk-based CRC screening at a relatively modest incremental cost. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

OBJECTIVES:Serrated polyposis (hyperplastic polyposis) is characterized by multiple polyps with serrated architecture in the colorectum. Although patients with serrated polyposis are known to be at increased risk of colorectal cancer (CRC) and possibly extracolonic cancers, cancer risk for their relatives has not been widely explored. The aim of this study was to estimate the risks of CRC and extracolonic cancers for relatives of patients with serrated polyposis.METHODS:A cohort of the 1,639 first- and second-degree relatives of 100 index patients with serrated polyposis recruited regardless of a family history of polyps or cancer from genetic clinics in Australia, New Zealand, Canada, and the USA, were retrospectively analyzed to estimate the country-, age-, and sex-specific standardized incidence ratios (SIRs) for relatives compared with the general population.RESULTS:A total of 102 CRCs were observed in first- and second-relatives (SIR 2.25, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.75-2.93; P<0.001), with 54 in first-degree relatives (SIR 5.16, 95% CI 3.70-7.30; P<0.001) and 48 in second-degree relatives (SIR 1.38, 95% CI 1.01-1.91; P=0.04). Six pancreatic cancers were observed in first-degree relatives (SIR 3.64, 95% CI 1.70-9.21; P=0.003). There was no statistical evidence of increased risk for cancer of the stomach, brain, breast, or prostate.CONCLUSIONS:Our finding that relatives of serrated polyposis patients are at significantly increased risk of colorectal and pancreatic cancer adds to the accumulating evidence that serrated polyposis has an inherited component. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: The public health concern represented by eye injury in Victoria, Australia has been known for a period now approaching 20 years. However, there has been no improvement observed in this public health concern since it was first identified in the 1990s. This study further investigates the epidemiology of eye injury in Victoria, specifically hospital-admitted eye injury. Methods: The Victorian Admitted Episodes Dataset was surveyed for eye injury coded by the International Classification of Diseases 10th revision during the period spanning 2001–2005, retrieving all cases of hospital-admitted eye injury in Victoria during the surveyed period. Results: During the period surveyed, the average incidence of eye injury requiring hospital admission in Victoria was 53.6 per 100 000 person-years. Sixty-four per cent of patients were male and 36% were female ( P < 0.001). Male patients were most commonly middle-aged compared with female patients who were most commonly middle-aged to elderly ( P < 0.001). Core patient groups included: elderly women sustaining eye injuries as a result of falls (particularly in residential homes); middle-aged men sustaining eye injuries as a result of assault and in transport-related accidents. Conclusion: The incidence of hospital-admitted eye injury in Victoria has increased since it was first identified as a concern in the 1990s. The design and implementation of an effective preventative strategy to reduce the rate of hospital-admitted eye injury in Victoria presents as a difficult task given that the most common causes are represented by falls, assault and transport-related accidents. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Determines the factors measured in childhood to predict asthma in adult life in Australia. Discussion on the allergic reactions prior to an asthmatic attack; Enumeration of the common risk factors of the development of asthma in adulthood; Methods of reducing the occurrence of asthma in the adult. INSET: Clinical implications.

Introduction: The HOXB13 pGly84Glu mutation has recently been associated with an increased risk of prostate cancer but the association of other cancer sites with this allele has not been assessed. Data has suggested that HOXB13 expression levels are decreased in colorectal cancer (CRC) cell lines indicating this gene may be involved in colorectal tumourigenesis. Methods: To evaluate a potential association of this mutation with CRC, we genotyped the mutation in 2695 CRC cases and 4593 controls from population-based registries in Canada and Australia. Results: The HOXB13 pGly84Glu mutation was more common in CRC cases than controls (0.48% vs. 0.17%, P = 0.02) indicating a significant association between the HOXB13 variant and CRC risk (OR = 2.8; 95%CI: 1.2-6.8). This association was attenuated but remained significant with the inclusion of previously published and publicly available genotype data. Pedigree analysis of cases and controls revealed that 7/21 HOXB13 mutation carriers had a family history of prostate cancer. Discussion: This report is the first to suggest a risk of CRC associated with mutations in the HOXB13 gene. These findings require further validation but may be of importance in the screening and genetic counseling of families known to carry the HOXB13 pGly84Glu mutation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article presents an Australian study which looks into the novel genetic variants that affect asthma risk. The study discovers that chromosome 11q13.5 and interleukin-6 receptor (IL6R) gene are both risk factors for allergic asthma or allergic sensitisation. It suggests that it is possible to treat asthma with an IL6R antagonist or tocilizumab. It also calls for further studies on the characterisation of the many loci affecting asthma risk.

Survivors of colorectal cancer (CRC) are at risk of developing another primary colorectal cancer - metachronous CRC. Understanding which pathological features of the first tumour are associated with risk of metachronous CRC might help tailor existing surveillance guidelines. Population-based CRC cases were recruited from the United States, Canada and Australia between 1997 and 2012 and followed prospectively until 2022 by the Colon Cancer Family Registry. Metachronous CRC was defined as a new primary CRC diagnosed at least 1 year after the initial CRC. Those with the genetic cancer predisposition Lynch syndrome or MUTYH mutation carriers were excluded. Cox regression models were fitted to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) and corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for the associations. Of 6085 CRC cases, 138 (2.3%) were diagnosed with a metachronous CRC over a median follow-up time of 12 years (incidence: 2.0 per 1000 person-years). CRC cases with a synchronous CRC were 3.4-fold more likely to develop a metachronous CRC (adjusted HR: 3.36, 95% CI: 1.89-5.98) than those without a synchronous tumour. CRC cases with MMR-deficient tumours had a 72% increased risk of metachronous CRC (adjusted HR: 1.72, 95% CI: 1.11-2.64) compared to those with MMR-proficient tumours. Compared to cases who had an adenocarcinoma histologic type, those with an undifferentiated histologic type were 77% less likely to develop a metachronous CRC (adjusted HR: 0.23, 95% CI: 0.06-0.94). Existing surveillance guidelines for CRC survivors could be updated to include increased surveillance for those whose first CRC was diagnosed with a synchronous CRC or was MMR-deficient., (© 2024 The Authors. International Journal of Cancer published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of UICC.)

Background: Australia has one of the highest incidences of colorectal cancer (CRC) worldwide. The Australian National Bowel Cancer Screening Program (NBCSP) is a best-practice, organised screening programme, but uptake is low (40.9%) and increasing participation could reduce morbidity and mortality associated with CRC. Endorsement by GPs is strongly associated with increasing screening uptake., Aim: This study (SMARTscreen) aimed to test whether a multi-intervention short message service (SMS) sent by general practices to 50-60-year-old patients who were due to receive the NBCSP kit would increase NBCSP uptake, by comparing it with usual care., Design and Setting: A stratified cluster randomised controlled trial was undertaken, involving 21 Australian general practices in Western Victoria, Australia., Method: For intervention practices, people due to receive the NBCSP kit within a 6-month study period were sent an SMS just before receiving the kit. The SMS included a personalised message from the person's general practice endorsing the kit, a motivational narrative video, an instructional video, and a link to more information. Control practices continued with usual care, comprising at-home testing with a faecal immunochemical test (FIT) through the NBCSP. The primary outcome was the between-arm percentage difference in uptake of FIT screening within 12 months from randomisation, which was estimated using generalised linear model regression., Results: In total, 39.2% (1143/2914) of people in 11 intervention practices and 23.0% (583/2537) of people in 10 control practices had a FIT result in their electronic health records - a difference of 16.5% (95% confidence interval = 2.02 to 30.9)., Conclusion: The SMS intervention increased NBCSP kit return in 50-60-year-old patients in general practice. This finding informed a larger trial - SMARTERscreen - to test this intervention in a broader Australian population., (© The Authors.)

Background: Australia persistently has one of the highest rates of colorectal cancer (CRC) in the world. Australia's National Bowel Cancer Screening Program (NBCSP) sends a biennial Faecal Immunochemical Test (FIT)-the 'NBCSP kit'-to everyone eligible for the programme between 50 and 74 years old; however, participation in the programme is low, especially in the 50- to 60-year-old age group. Our previous efficacy trial ('SMARTscreen') demonstrated an absolute increase in uptake of 16.5% (95% confidence interval = 2.02-30.9%) for people sent an SMS with motivational and instructional videos, from their general practice prior to receiving their NBCSP kit, compared to those receiving usual care. Building on the strengths of the SMARTscreen trial and addressing limitations, the 'SMARTERscreen' trial will test the effect on participation in the NBCSP of sending either an SMS only or an SMS with online video material to general practice patients due to receive their NBCSP compared to 'usual care'., Methods: SMARTERscreen is a three-arm stratified cluster randomised controlled trial involving 63 general practices in two states in Australia. Eligible patients are patients who are aged 49-60 years and due to receive their NBCSP kit within the next 2 weeks during the intervention period. General practices will be equally randomised to three trial arms (21:21:21, estimated average 260 patients/practice). The two interventions include (i) an SMS with an encouraging message from their general practice or (ii) the same SMS with weblinks to additional motivational and instructional videos. The control arm will receive 'usual care'. Using the intention-to-treat approach, primary analysis will estimate the three pair-wise between-arm differences in the proportion of eligible patients who participate in the NBCSP within 6 months of when their kit is sent, utilising screening data from the Australian National Cancer Screening Register (NCSR). Patient intervention adherence to the interventions will also be evaluated. Findings will be incorporated into the Policy1-Bowel microsimulation model to estimate the long-term health benefits and cost-effectiveness of the interventions., Discussion: SMARTERscreen will provide high-level evidence determining whether an SMS or an SMS with web-based material sent to general practice patients prior to receiving their NBCSP kit increases participation in bowel cancer screening., Trial Registration: Australian New Zealand Clinical Trials Registry ACTRN12623000036617. Registered on 13 January 2023. Trial URL: https://www.anzctr.org.au/Trial/Registration/TrialReview.aspx?id=385119&isClinicalTrial=False., (© 2023. The Author(s).)

Background: Mammogram risk scores based on texture and density defined by different brightness thresholds are associated with breast cancer risk differently and could reveal distinct information about breast cancer risk. We aimed to investigate causal relationships between these intercorrelated mammogram risk scores to determine their relevance to breast cancer aetiology., Methods: We used digitised mammograms for 371 monozygotic twin pairs, aged 40-70 years without a prior diagnosis of breast cancer at the time of mammography, from the Australian Mammographic Density Twins and Sisters Study. We generated normalised, age-adjusted, and standardised risk scores based on textures using the Cirrus algorithm and on three spatially independent dense areas defined by increasing brightness threshold: light areas, bright areas, and brightest areas. Causal inference was made using the Inference about Causation from Examination of FAmilial CONfounding (ICE FALCON) method., Results: The mammogram risk scores were correlated within twin pairs and with each other (r = 0.22-0.81; all P < 0.005). We estimated that 28-92% of the associations between the risk scores could be attributed to causal relationships between the scores, with the rest attributed to familial confounders shared by the scores. There was consistent evidence for positive causal effects: of Cirrus, light areas, and bright areas on the brightest areas (accounting for 34%, 55%, and 85% of the associations, respectively); and of light areas and bright areas on Cirrus (accounting for 37% and 28%, respectively)., Conclusions: In a mammogram, the lighter (less dense) areas have a causal effect on the brightest (highly dense) areas, including through a causal pathway via textural features. These causal relationships help us gain insight into the relative aetiological importance of different mammographic features in breast cancer. For example our findings are consistent with the brightest areas being more aetiologically important than lighter areas for screen-detected breast cancer; conversely, light areas being more aetiologically important for interval breast cancer. Additionally, specific textural features capture aetiologically independent breast cancer risk information from dense areas. These findings highlight the utility of ICE FALCON and family data in decomposing the associations between intercorrelated disease biomarkers into distinct biological pathways., (© 2023. BioMed Central Ltd., part of Springer Nature.)

Background: A risk-stratified approach to colorectal cancer (CRC) screening could result in a more acceptable balance of benefits and harms, and be more cost-effective., Aim: To determine the effect of a consultation in general practice using a computerised risk assessment and decision support tool (Colorectal cancer RISk Prediction, CRISP) on risk-appropriate CRC screening., Design and Setting: Randomised controlled trial in 10 general practices in Melbourne, Australia, from May 2017 to May 2018., Method: Participants were recruited from a consecutive sample of patients aged 50-74 years attending their GP. Intervention consultations included CRC risk assessment using the CRISP tool and discussion of CRC screening recommendations. Control group consultations focused on lifestyle CRC risk factors. The primary outcome was risk-appropriate CRC screening at 12 months., Results: A total of 734 participants (65.1% of eligible patients) were randomised (369 intervention, 365 control); the primary outcome was determined for 722 (362 intervention, 360 control). There was a 6.5% absolute increase (95% confidence interval [CI] = -0.28 to 13.2) in risk-appropriate screening in the intervention compared with the control group (71.5% versus 65.0%; odds ratio [OR] 1.36, 95% CI = 0.99 to 1.86, P = 0.057). In those due CRC screening during follow-up, there was a 20.3% (95% CI = 10.3 to 30.4) increase (intervention 59.8% versus control 38.9%; OR 2.31, 95% CI = 1.51 to 3.53, P <0.001) principally by increasing faecal occult blood testing in those at average risk., Conclusion: A risk assessment and decision support tool increases risk-appropriate CRC screening in those due screening. The CRISP intervention could commence in people in their fifth decade to ensure people start CRC screening at the optimal age with the most cost-effective test., (© The Authors.)

Objective: The unknown aetiology of Serrated Polyposis Syndrome (SPS) impedes risk prediction and prevention. We investigated risk factors for SPS, overall and stratified by World Health Organization (WHO) 2010 clinical criteria and by colorectal cancer (CRC)., Method: A retrospective case-control study involving a cross-sectional analysis from 350 unrelated individuals with SPS from the Genetics of Colonic Polyposis Study and 714 controls from the Australasian Colorectal Cancer Family Registry. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression modelling was used to determine the association between risk factors and SPS and risk factors associated with CRC in SPS., Results: Female biological sex (odds ratio (OR) = 4.54; 95%Confidence interval (CI) = 2.77-7.45), increasing body mass index (BMI) at age 20 years (OR = 1.09; 95%CI = 1.04-1.13), hormone replacement therapy (OR = 0.44; 95%CI = 0.20.98), and increasing weekly folate intake (OR = 0.82; 95%CI = 0.75-0.90) were associated with SPS by multivariate analysis. Increasing weekly calcium intake (OR = 0.79; 95%CI = 0.64-0.97) and smoking > 10 cigarettes daily (OR = 0.45; 95%CI = 0.23-0.86) were associated with WHO criterion I only. The consumption of 1-100 g of alcohol per week (OR = 0.39; 95%CI = 0.18-0.83) was associated with WHO criterion III only. Smoking 1-5 cigarettes daily (OR = 2.35; 95%CI = 1.09-5.05), weekly non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drug (NSAIDs) intake (OR = 0.88; 95%CI = 0.78-0.99), and increased height (OR = 1.09; 95% = 1.05-1.13), were associated with SPS fulfilling both WHO criteria I and III. Moreover, weekly NSAIDs intake (OR = 0.81; 95%CI = 0.67-0.98) was associated with a reduced likelihood of CRC in SPS., Conclusion: We identified novel risk and potential protective factors associated with SPS, some specific for certain WHO 2010 criteria. Weekly use of NSAIDs may reduce the risk of CRC in people with SPS., (© 2022. The Author(s).)

Background: Polygenic risk scores (PRSs) can predict the risk of colorectal cancer (CRC) and target screening more precisely than current guidelines using age and family history alone. Primary care, as a far-reaching point of healthcare and routine provider of cancer screening and risk information, may be an ideal location for their widespread implementation., Methods: This trial aims to determine whether the SCRIPT intervention results in more risk-appropriate CRC screening after 12 months in individuals attending general practice, compared with standard cancer risk reduction information. The SCRIPT intervention consists of a CRC PRS, tailored risk-specific screening recommendations and a risk report for participants and their GP, delivered in general practice. Patients aged between 45 and 70 inclusive, attending their GP, will be approached for participation. For those over 50, only those overdue for CRC screening will be eligible to participate. Two hundred and seventy-four participants will be randomised to the intervention or control arms, stratified by general practice, using a computer-generated allocation sequence. The primary outcome is risk-appropriate CRC screening after 12 months. For those in the intervention arm, risk-appropriate screening is defined using PRS-derived risk; for those in the control arm, it is defined using family history and national screening guidelines. Timing, type and results of the previous screening are considered in both arms. Objective health service data will capture screening behaviour. Secondary outcomes include cancer-specific worry, risk perception, predictors of CRC screening behaviour, screening intentions and health service use at 1, 6 and 12 months post-intervention delivery., Discussion: This trial aims to determine whether a PRS-derived personalised CRC risk estimate delivered in primary care increases risk-appropriate CRC screening. A future population risk-stratified CRC screening programme could incorporate risk assessment within primary care while encouraging adherence to targeted screening recommendations., Trial Registration: Australian and New Zealand Clinical Trial Registry ACTRN12621000092897p. Registered on 1 February 2021., (© 2022. The Author(s).)

Background: The Western Australian Haemodialysis Vascular Access Classification instrument was developed to classify the cannulation complexity of the arteriovenous fistula or arteriovenous graft as simple, challenging, or complex. Although the instrument was developed by experts in haemodialysis nursing, the instrument had not undergone formal validity or reliability testing., Objectives: Evaluate the Western Australian Haemodialysis Vascular Access Classification instrument for content validity, interrater and test-retest reliability., Design: Prospective cohort study., Participants: Content validity was assessed by haemodialysis nursing experts (n = 8). The reliability testing occurred in one in-centre and one satellite haemodialysis unit in Western Australia from September to November 2019. Reliability testing was performed by 38 haemodialysis nurses in 67 patients receiving haemodialysis and 247 episodes of cannulation., Measurements: Interrater and test-retest reliability assessment was conducted using κ, adjusted κ, Bland-Altman plots, intraclass correlation coefficient and Pearson's correlation coefficient., Results: The final version of the instrument (n = 20 items) had individual item-level content validity indices ranging from 0.625 to 1.00 with a scale-level content validity index of 0.89. For both interrater (n = 172 pairs) and test-retest (n = 101 pairs), most individual variables had excellent adjusted κ (n = 33 variables), some fair to good agreement (n = 6 variables) and one variable with poor agreement. The classification of simple, challenging and complex demonstrated adjusted κ of fair to good, to excellent agreement for interrater reliability with lower levels of agreement for test-retest reliability., Conclusions: This instrument may be used to match a competency-assessed nurse to perform the cannulation thereby minimising the risk of missed cannulation and trauma., (© 2021 The Authors. Journal of Renal Care published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of European Dialysis & Transplant Nurses Association/European Renal Care Association.)

Background: Colorectal cancer (CRC) is the second most diagnosed cancer in men and women and second most common cause of cancer death in Australia; Australia's CRC incidence and mortality are among the world's highest. The Australian National Bowel Cancer Screening Program began in 2006; however, only 33% of those approached for the first time by the Program between 2018 and 2019 returned the kit. Of the 5.7 million kits sent during this period, only 44% were returned. Our aim was to identify practices and features of national bowel cancer screening programs in countries with similar programs but higher screening participation, to identify potential interventions for optimising Australian CRC screening participation., Methods: We searched published and grey literature for CRC screening programs reporting at least 50% screening participation using postal invitation and free return of iFOBT home kits. Interviews were conducted with cancer registry staff and academic researchers, focused on participant and practitioner engagement in screening., Results: National programs in Netherlands, Scotland, Denmark, and Finland reported over 50% screening participation rates for all invitation rounds. Shared characteristics include small populations within small geographic areas relative to Australia; relatively high literacy; a one-sample iFOBT kit; national registration systems for population cancer screening research; and screening program research including randomised trials of program features., Conclusions: Apart from the one-sample kit, we identified no single solution to persistent Australian low uptake of screening. Research including randomised trials within the program promises to increase participation., Impact: This screening program comparison suggests that within-program intervention trials will lead to increased Australian screening participation.

Aim: Decreased cancer incidence and reported changes to clinical management indicate that the COVID-19 pandemic has delayed cancer diagnosis and treatment. This study aimed to develop and apply a flexible model to estimate the impact of delayed diagnosis and treatment on survival outcomes and healthcare costs based on a shift in the disease stage at treatment initiation., Methods: A model was developed and made publicly available to estimate population-level health economic outcomes by extrapolating and weighing stage-specific outcomes by the distribution of stages at treatment initiation. It was applied to estimate the impact of 3- and 6-month delays based on Australian data for stage I breast cancer, colorectal cancer, and lung cancer patients, and for T1 melanoma. Two approaches were explored to estimate stage shifts following a delay: (a) based on the relation between time to treatment initiation and overall survival (breast, colorectal, and lung cancer), and (b) based on the tumor growth rate (melanoma)., Results: Using a conservative once-off 3-month delay and considering only shifts from stage I/T1 to stage II/T2, 88 excess deaths and $12 million excess healthcare costs were predicted in Australia over 5 years for all patients diagnosed in 2020. For a 6-month delay, excess mortality and healthcare costs were 349 deaths and $46 million over 5 years., Conclusions: The health and economic impacts of delays in treatment initiation cause an imminent policy concern. More accurate individual patient data on shifts in stage of disease during and after the COVID-19 pandemic are critical for further analyses., (© 2021 John Wiley & Sons Australia, Ltd.)

Interval breast cancers (those diagnosed between recommended mammography screens) generally have poorer outcomes and are more common among women with dense breasts. We aimed to develop a risk model for interval breast cancer. We conducted a nested case-control study within the Melbourne Collaborative Cohort Study involving 168 interval breast cancer patients and 498 matched control subjects. We measured breast density using the CUMULUS software. We recorded first-degree family history by questionnaire, measured body mass index (BMI) and calculated age-adjusted breast tissue aging, a novel measure of exposure to estrogen and progesterone based on the Pike model. We fitted conditional logistic regression to estimate odds ratio (OR) or odds ratio per adjusted standard deviation (OPERA) and calculated the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). The stronger risk associations were for unadjusted percent breast density (OPERA = 1.99; AUC = 0.66), more so after adjusting for age and BMI (OPERA = 2.26; AUC = 0.70), and for family history (OR = 2.70; AUC = 0.56). When the latter two factors and their multiplicative interactions with age-adjusted breast tissue aging (p = 0.01 and 0.02, respectively) were fitted, the AUC was 0.73 (95% CI 0.69-0.77), equivalent to a ninefold interquartile risk ratio. In summary, compared with using dense breasts alone, risk discrimination for interval breast cancers could be doubled by instead using breast density, BMI, family history and hormonal exposure. This would also give women with dense breasts, and their physicians, more information about the major consequence of having dense breasts-an increased risk of developing an interval breast cancer., (© 2019 The Authors. International Journal of Cancer published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of UICC.)

Introduction: With almost 50% of cases preventable and the Australian National Bowel Cancer Screening Program in place, colorectal cancer (CRC) is a prime candidate for investment to reduce the cancer burden. The challenge is determining effective ways to reduce morbidity and mortality and their implementation through policy and practice. Pathways -Bowel is a multistage programme that aims to identify best-value investment in CRC control by integrating expert and end-user engagement; relevant evidence; modelled interventions to guide future investment; and policy-driven implementation of interventions using evidence-based methods. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: Pathways -Bowel is an iterative work programme incorporating a calibrated and validated CRC natural history model for Australia ( Policy1-Bowel ) and assessing the health and cost outcomes and resource use of targeted interventions. Experts help identify and prioritise modelled evaluations of changing trends and interventions and critically assess results to advise on their real-world applicability. Where appropriate the results are used to support public policy change and make the case for optimal investment in specific CRC control interventions. Fourteen high-priority evaluations have been modelled or planned, including evaluations of CRC outcomes from the changing prevalence of modifiable exposures, including smoking and body fatness; potential benefits of daily aspirin intake as chemoprevention; increasing CRC incidence in people aged <50 years; increasing screening participation in the general and Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander populations; alternative screening technologies and modalities; and changes to follow-up surveillance protocols. Pathways -Bowel is a unique, comprehensive approach to evaluating CRC control; no prior body of work has assessed the relative benefits of a variety of interventions across CRC development and progression to produce a list of best-value investments., Ethics and Dissemination: Ethics approval was not required as human participants were not involved. Findings are reported in a series of papers in peer-reviewed journals and presented at fora to engage the community and policymakers., Competing Interests: Competing interests: KC, EF, JW, JBL, EH, MC, NT, KBu and HH receive salary support from CCNSW. KC is co-PI of unrelated investigator-initiated trial of cervical screening in Australia (‘Compass’) conducted by the Victorian Cytology Service, which has received funding contribution from Roche Molecular Systems and Ventana, USA., (© Author(s) (or their employer(s)) 2020. Re-use permitted under CC BY-NC. No commercial re-use. See rights and permissions. Published by BMJ.)

Background: There is growing evidence for personalizing colorectal cancer screening based on risk factors. We compared the cost-effectiveness of personalized colorectal cancer screening based on polygenic risk and family history to uniform screening., Methods: Using the MISCAN-Colon model, we simulated a cohort of 100 million 40-year-olds, offering them uniform or personalized screening. Individuals were categorized based on polygenic risk and family history of colorectal cancer. We varied screening strategies by start age, interval and test and estimated costs, and quality-adjusted life years (QALY). In our analysis, we (i) assessed the cost-effectiveness of uniform screening; (ii) developed personalized screening scenarios based on optimal screening strategies by risk group; and (iii) compared the cost-effectiveness of both., Results: At a willingness-to-pay threshold of $50,000/QALY, the optimal uniform screening scenario was annual fecal immunochemical testing (FIT) from ages 50 to 74 years, whereas for personalized screening the optimal screening scenario consisted of annual and biennial FIT screening except for those at highest risk who were offered 5-yearly colonoscopy from age 50 years. Although these scenarios gained the same number of QALYs (17,887), personalized screening was not cost-effective, costing an additional $428,953 due to costs associated with determining risk (assumed to be $240 per person). Personalized screening was cost-effective when these costs were less than ∼$48., Conclusions: Uniform colorectal cancer screening currently appears more cost-effective than personalized screening based on polygenic risk and family history. However, cost-effectiveness is highly dependent on the cost of determining risk., Impact: Personalized screening could become increasingly viable as costs for determining risk decrease., (©2019 American Association for Cancer Research.)

Introduction: Genomic tests can predict risk and tailor screening recommendations for colorectal cancer (CRC). Primary care could be suitable for their widespread implementation., Objective: We aimed to assess the feasibility and acceptability of administering a CRC genomic test in primary care., Methods: Participants aged 45-74 years recruited from 4 Australian general practices were offered a genomic CRC risk test. Participants received brief verbal information about the test comprising 45 CRC-associated single-nucleotide polymorphisms, before choosing whether to undertake the test. Personalized risks were given to testers. Uptake and knowledge of the genomic test, cancer-specific anxiety (Cancer Worry Scale), psychosocial impact (Multidimensional Impact of Cancer Risk Assessment [MICRA] score), and impact on CRC screening behaviour within 6 months were measured., Results: In 150 participants, test uptake was high (126, 84%), with 125 (83%) having good knowledge of the genomic test. Moderate risk participants were impacted more by the test (MICRA mean: 15.9) than average risk participants (mean: 9.5, difference in means: 6.4, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.5, 11.2, p = 0.01), but all scores were low. Average risk participants' cancer-specific anxiety decreased (mean differences from baseline: 1 month -0.5, 95% CI: -1.0, -0.1, p = 0.03; 6 months -0.6, 95% CI: -1.0, -0.2, p = 0.01). We found limited evidence for genomic testers being more likely to complete the risk-appropriate CRC screening than non-testers (41 vs. 17%, odds ratio = 3.4, 95% CI: 0.6, 34.8, p = 0.19), but some mediators of screening behaviour were altered in genomic testers., Conclusions: Genomic testing for CRC risk in primary care is acceptable and likely feasible. Further development of the risk assessment intervention could strengthen the impact on screening behaviour., (© 2020 S. Karger AG, Basel.)

While Australia now has well-established national screening programs for breast, bowel and cervical cancers, research continues into the feasibility of developing systematic screening programs for a number of other cancers. In this paper, experts in their fields provide perspectives on the current state of play and future directions for screening and surveillance for melanoma, Lynch syndrome, and liver, lung and prostate cancers in Australia. Although the evidence does not support population screening, there may be opportunities to prevent thousands of deaths through systematic approaches to the early detection of lung cancer and melanoma, testing for Lynch syndrome, and organised surveillance for hepatocellular carcinoma among individuals at high risk - guided by targeted research. The paper also looks at what impact new prostate specific antigen testing guidelines are having on screening for prostate cancer., Competing Interests: FM has done paid consultancy work for Rhythm Biosciences and received payment for providing medicolegal opinions. BA’s then-employer, the Sax Institute, was reimbursed by the Prostate Cancer Foundation of Australia (PCFA) for remunerated time spent advising the systematic evidence review team for the PSA testing guideline and on writing parts of the guideline document. BA is a member of the PCFA’s Board and Chair of their Research Advisory Committee. He receives no remuneration for either of these positions, but all expenses for attending meetings are paid for by the PCFA.

Background: Colorectal cancer is the third most commonly diagnosed cancer in Australia. Emerging evidence from several countries suggests increasing incidence in people aged <50 years., Methods: We assessed colon and rectal cancer incidence trends in people aged 20+ in Australia from 1982 to 2014. We used data on 375,008 incident cases (248,162 colon and 126,846 rectal). We quantified the annual percentage change (APC) in rates by age group using Joinpoint regression., Results: For people aged <50 years, colon cancer rates increased from the mid-2000s, with the increase in APCs ranging from 1.7% to 9.3% per annum (depending on specific age group); rectal cancer rates increased from the early 1990s, with APCs ranging from 0.9% to 7.1% per annum. For people aged 50 to 69 years, colon and rectal cancer rates decreased from the mid-1990s, with the decrease in APCs in specific age groups ranging from 0.8% to 4.8% per annum (except for colon cancer in those ages 65 to 69 years, where similar rate decreases were observed from 2007). An overall reduction in older persons (>70 years) was estimated at 1.9% to 4.9% per annum for colon cancer from 2010 onward and 1.1% to 1.8% per annum in rectal cancer from the early 2000s onward., Conclusions: Colon and rectal cancer incidence has increased in people aged <50 years in Australia over the last two decades. However, colon and rectal cancer rates decreased in people aged 50+, likely due to de facto and organized bowel cancer screening., Impact: Further research is needed to examine the cause of the increase and to quantify the impact of future trends on the cost-effectiveness of population-based screening for those <50 years., (©2018 American Association for Cancer Research.)

Background: The Australian National Bowel Cancer Screening Program (NBCSP) is rolling out 2-yearly immunochemical fecal occult blood test screening in people aged 50 to 74 years. This study aimed to evaluate the benefits, harms, and cost-effectiveness of extending the NBCSP to younger and/or older ages., Methods: A comprehensive validated microsimulation model, Policy1-Bowel, was used to simulate the fully rolled-out NBCSP and alternative strategies assuming screening starts at 40 or 45 years and/or ceases at 79 or 84 years given three scenarios: (i) perfect adherence (100%), (ii) high adherence (60%), and (ii) low adherence (40%, as currently achieved)., Results: The current NBCSP will reduce colorectal cancer incidence (mortality) by 23% to 51% (36% to 74%) compared with no screening (range reflects participation); extending screening to younger or older ages would result in additional reductions of 2 to 6 (2 to 9) or 1 to 3 (3 to 7) percentage points, respectively. With an indicative willingness-to-pay threshold of A$50,000/life-year saved (LYS), only screening from 50 to 74 years [incremental cost-effective ratio (ICER): A$2,984-5,981/LYS) or from 45 to 74 years (ICER: A$17,053-29,512/LYS) remained cost-effective in all participation scenarios. The number-needed-to-colonoscope to prevent a death over the lifetime of a cohort in the current NBCSP is 35 to 49. Starting screening at 45 years would increase colonoscopy demand for program-related colonoscopies by 3% to 14% and be associated with 55 to 170 additional colonoscopies per additional death prevented., Conclusions: Starting screening at 45 years could be cost-effective, but it would increase colonoscopy demand and would be associated with a less favorable incremental benefits-to-harms trade-off than screening from 50 to 74 years., Impact: The study underpins recently updated Australian colorectal cancer management guidelines that recommend that the NBCSP continues to offer bowel screening from 50 to 74 years., (©2018 American Association for Cancer Research.)

Introduction: Screening is an effective means for colorectal cancer prevention and early detection. Family history is strongly associated with colorectal cancer risk. We describe the rationale, evidence and recommendations for colorectal cancer screening by family history for people without a genetic syndrome, as reported in the 2017 revised Australian guidelines. Main recommendations: Based on 10-year risks of colorectal cancer, people at near average risk due to no or weak family history (category 1) are recommended screening by immunochemical faecal occult blood test (iFOBT) every 2 years from age 50 to 74 years. Individuals with moderate risk due to their family history (category 2) are recommended biennial iFOBT from age 40 to 49 years, then colonoscopy every 5 years from age 50 to 74 years. People with a high risk due to their family history (category 3) are recommended biennial iFOBT from age 35 to 44 years, then colonoscopy every 5 years from age 45 to 74 years. Changes in management as a result of the guidelines: By 2019, the National Bowel Cancer Screening Program will offer all Australians free biennial iFOBT screening from age 50 to 74 years, consistent with the recommendations in these guidelines for category 1. Compared with the 2005 guidelines, there are some minor changes in the family history inclusion criteria for categories 1 and 2; the genetic syndromes have been removed from category 3 and, as a consequence, colonoscopy screening is now every 5 years; and for categories 2 and 3, screening begins with iFOBT for people aged 40 and 35 years, respectively, before transitioning to colonoscopy after 10 years.

Importance: There are limited data among young adults on sunscreen use during childhood and adulthood and on the association of sunscreen use with melanoma risk., Objective: To assess correlates of early-life sunscreen use and the association between sunscreen use and risk of cutaneous melanoma before age 40 years., Design, Setting, and Participants: This population-based, case-control family study analyzed Australian Melanoma Family Study data for persons with questionnaire data on sunscreen use collected by interview from 2001 to 2005 across 3 states in Australia, representing two-thirds of the country's population. Case participants (aged 18-39 years) had confirmed first primary melanoma. Siblings of case participants were included, and case participants without a sibling control were excluded. Unrelated controls (aged 18-44 years) were recruited from the electoral roll or were a spouse, partner, or friend nominated by case participants. Data analyses were conducted from October 2017 to February 2018., Exposures: Self- and parent-reported sunscreen use, sun exposure, and other candidate risk factors during childhood and adulthood., Main Outcomes and Measures: Logistic regression analyses adjusted for potential confounders were used to estimate odds ratios (ORs) for melanoma and for correlates of sunscreen use., Results: Participation was 629 of 830 contactable cases (76%) (629 of 1197 overall [53%]), 240 of 570 contactable controls (42%) from the electoral roll (240 of 1068 overall [23%]), and 295 of 371 nominated spouse or friend controls (80%); analysis incuded 603 cases and 1088 controls. The median (interquartile range) age was 32 (28-36) years for 603 cases, 35 (30-38) years for 478 unrelated controls, and 34 (29-38) years for 610 sibling controls. There were more women than men (range, 57%-62%) in all groups, approximately 40% (range, 39%-43%) of participants had a university education, and most participants (range, 58%-73%) had British/northern European ethnicity. Risk of melanoma was less with higher use of sunscreen in childhood (OR for highest vs lowest tertiles, 0.60; 95% CI, 0.42-0.87; P = .02 for trend) and across the lifetime (OR, 0.65; 95% CI, 0.45-0.93; P = .07 for trend). Subgroup analyses suggested that the protective association of sunscreen with melanoma was stronger for people reporting blistering sunburn, receiving a diagnosis of melanoma at a younger age, or having some or many nevi. Total lifetime sun exposure was unrelated to melanoma risk (OR for highest vs lowest tertile, 0.97; 95% CI, 0.66-1.43; P = .94 for trend). By contrast, total sun exposure inversely weighted by sunscreen use (as a measure of sun exposure unprotected by sunscreen) was significantly associated with melanoma risk (OR, 1.80; 95% CI, 1.22-2.65; P = .007 for trend) and appeared stronger for people having lighter pigmentation or some or many nevi or using sunscreen to stay longer in the sun. Regular users of sunscreen were more likely to be female, younger, and of British or northern European ancestry and to have higher educational levels, lighter skin pigmentation, and a stronger history of blistering sunburn., Conclusions and Relevance: Our findings provided evidence that regular sunscreen use is significantly associated with reduced risk of cutaneous melanoma among young adults and identified several characteristics associated with less sunscreen use.

Background: The Australian National Bowel Cancer Screening Programme (NBCSP) was introduced in 2006. When fully implemented, the programme will invite people aged 50 to 74 to complete an immunochemical faecal occult blood test (iFOBT) every 2 years., Methods and Findings: To investigate colorectal cancer (CRC) screening occurring outside of the NBCSP, we classified participants (n = 2,480) in the Australasian Colorectal Cancer Family Registry (ACCFR) into 3 risk categories (average, moderately increased, and potentially high) based on CRC family history and assessed their screening practices according to national guidelines. We developed a microsimulation to compare hypothetical screening scenarios (70% and 100% uptake) to current participation levels (baseline) and evaluated clinical outcomes and cost for each risk category. The 2 main limitations of this study are as follows: first, the fact that our cost-effectiveness analysis was performed from a third-party payer perspective, which does not include indirect costs and results in overestimated cost-effectiveness ratios, and second, that our natural history model of CRC does not include polyp sojourn time, which determines the rate of cancerous transformation. Screening uptake was low across all family history risk categories (64%-56% reported no screening). For participants at average risk, 18% reported overscreening, while 37% of those in the highest risk categories screened according to guidelines. Higher screening levels would substantially reduce CRC mortality across all risk categories (95 to 305 fewer deaths per 100,000 persons in the 70% scenario versus baseline). For those at average risk, a fully implemented NBCSP represented the most cost-effective approach to prevent CRC deaths (AUS$13,000-16,000 per quality-adjusted life year [QALY]). For those at moderately increased risk, higher adherence to recommended screening was also highly cost-effective (AUS$19,000-24,000 per QALY)., Conclusion: Investing in public health strategies to increase adherence to appropriate CRC screening will save lives and deliver high value for money., Competing Interests: I have read the journal's policy and the authors of this manuscript have the following competing interests: MAJ is a NHMRC Senior Research Fellow. JLH is a NHMRC Senior Principal Research Fellow. DDB is a University of Melbourne Research at Melbourne Accelerator Program (R@MAP) Senior Research Fellow and NHMRC R.D. Wright Career Development Fellow. JDE is a NHMRC Practitioner Fellow. The other authors have no conflict of interest to declare with respect to this manuscript.

The Australian National Bowel Cancer Screening Program (NBCSP) will fully roll-out 2-yearly screening using the immunochemical Faecal Occult Blood Testing (iFOBT) in people aged 50 to 74 years by 2020. In this study, we aimed to estimate the comparative health benefits, harms, and cost-effectiveness of screening with iFOBT, versus other potential alternative or adjunctive technologies. A comprehensive validated microsimulation model, Policy1-Bowel, was used to simulate a total of 13 screening approaches involving use of iFOBT, colonoscopy, sigmoidoscopy, computed tomographic colonography (CTC), faecal DNA (fDNA) and plasma DNA (pDNA), in people aged 50 to 74 years. All strategies were evaluated in three scenarios: (i) perfect adherence, (ii) high (but imperfect) adherence, and (iii) low adherence. When assuming perfect adherence, the most effective strategies involved using iFOBT (annually, or biennially with/without adjunct sigmoidoscopy either at 50, or at 54, 64 and 74 years for individuals with negative iFOBT), or colonoscopy (10-yearly, or once-off at 50 years combined with biennial iFOBT). Colorectal cancer incidence (mortality) reductions for these strategies were 51-67(74-80)% in comparison with no screening; 2-yearly iFOBT screening (i.e. the NBCSP) would be associated with reductions of 51(74)%. Only 2-yearly iFOBT screening was found to be cost-effective in all scenarios in context of an indicative willingness-to-pay threshold of A$50,000/life-year saved (LYS); this strategy was associated with an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of A$2,984/LYS-A$5,981/LYS (depending on adherence). The fully rolled-out NBCSP is highly cost-effective, and is also one of the most effective approaches for bowel cancer screening in Australia., (© 2018 UICC.)

Background: Reducing ultraviolet radiation (UV) exposure and improving early detection may reduce melanoma incidence, mortality and health system costs. This study aims to evaluate the efficacy and cost-effectiveness of providing information on personal genomic risk of melanoma in reducing UV exposure at 12 months, according to low and high traditional risk., Methods: In this randomized controlled trial, participants (target sample = 892) will be recruited from the general population, and randomized (1:1 ratio, intervention versus control). Intervention arm participants provide a saliva sample, receive personalized melanoma genomic risk information, a genetic counselor phone call, and an educational booklet on melanoma prevention. Control arm participants receive only the educational booklet. Eligible participants are aged 18-69 years, have European ancestry and no personal history of melanoma. All participants will complete a questionnaire and wear a UV dosimeter to objectively measure their sun exposure at baseline, 1- and 12-month time-points, except 1-month UV dosimetry will be limited to ~250 participants. The primary outcome is total daily Standard Erythemal Doses at 12 months. Secondary outcomes include objectively measured UV exposure for specific time periods (e.g. midday hours), self-reported sun protection and skin-examination behaviors, psycho-social outcomes, and ethical considerations surrounding offering genomic testing at a population level. A within-trial and modelled economic evaluation will be undertaken from an Australian health system perspective to assess the intervention costs and outcomes., Discussion: This trial will inform the clinical and personal utility of introducing genomic testing into the health system for melanoma prevention and early detection at a population-level., Trial Registration: Australian New Zealand Clinical Trials Registry ACTRN12617000691347., (Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)

Background and Objectives: Many Australians at average risk of colorectal cancer (CRC) are undergoing unnecessary colonoscopic screening, while many at increased risk are getting inadequate screening. The aim of this study was to test different ways of communicating the risks and benefits of CRC screening, as part of the development of a CRC risk prediction (CRISP) tool., Method: General practice patients were shown five different risk presentations for hypothetical ‘average’ and ‘increased’ risk cases and were asked to choose the screening method they would undergo. Associations were explored between risk presentation type and ‘risk-appropriate screening’ choice., Results: All risk formats were associated with improved risk-appropriate screening by participants (n = 204); however, there was a statistical trend favouring absolute risk with a government recommendation and an ‘expected frequency tree’. The icon array was most weakly associated with appropriate screening., Discussion: This research will inform approaches to communicating risk in CRISP and may be of wider relevance to supporting informed decisions about cancer screening.

Regular aspirin use is associated with reduced risk of colorectal cancer (CRC). Variation in aspirin's chemoprevention efficacy has been attributed to the presence of single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs). We conducted a meta-analysis using two large population-based case-control datasets, the UK-Leeds Colorectal Cancer Study Group and the NIH-Colon Cancer Family Registry, having a combined total of 3325 cases and 2262 controls. The aim was to assess 42 candidate SNPs in 15 genes whose association with colorectal cancer risk was putatively modified by aspirin use, in the literature. Log odds ratios (ORs) and standard errors were estimated for each dataset separately using logistic regression adjusting for age, sex and study site, and dataset-specific results were combined using random effects meta-analysis. Meta-analysis showed association between SNPs rs6983267, rs11694911 and rs2302615 with CRC risk reduction (All P<0.05). Association for SNP rs6983267 in the CCAT2 gene only was noteworthy after multiple test correction (P = 0.001). Site-specific analysis showed association between SNPs rs1799853 and rs2302615 with reduced colon cancer risk only (P = 0.01 and P = 0.004, respectively), however neither reached significance threshold following multiple test correction. Meta-analysis of SNPs rs2070959 and rs1105879 in UGT1A6 gene showed interaction between aspirin use and CRC risk (Pinteraction = 0.01 and 0.02, respectively); stratification by aspirin use showed an association for decreased CRC risk for aspirin users having a wild-type genotype (rs2070959 OR = 0.77, 95% CI = 0.68-0.86; rs1105879 OR = 0.77 95% CI = 0.69-0.86) compared to variant allele cariers. The direction of the interaction however is in contrast to that published in studies on colorectal adenomas. Both SNPs showed potential site-specific interaction with aspirin use and colon cancer risk only (Pinteraction = 0.006 and 0.008, respectively), with the direction of association similar to that observed for CRC. Additionally, they showed interaction between any non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (including aspirin) use and CRC risk (Pinteraction = 0.01 for both). All gene x environment (GxE) interactions however were not significant after multiple test correction. Candidate gene investigation indicated no evidence of GxE interaction between genetic variants in genes involved in aspirin pathways, regular aspirin use and colorectal cancer risk.

Carriers of germline mutations in DNA mismatch repair (MMR) genes are at increased risk of several cancers including colorectal and gynecologic cancers (Lynch syndrome). There is no substantial evidence that these mutations are associated with an increased risk of cervical cancer. A total of 369 families with at least one carrier of a mutation in a MMR gene (133 MLH1, 174 MSH2, 35 MSH6 and 27 PMS2) were ascertained via population cancer registries or via family cancer clinics in Australia, New Zealand, Canada, and USA. Personal and family histories of cancer were obtained from participant interviews. Modified segregation analysis was used to estimate the hazard ratio (incidence rates for carriers relative to those for the general population), and age-specific cumulative risks of cervical cancer for carriers. A total of 65 cases of cervical cancer were reported (including 10 verified by pathology reports). The estimated incidence was 5.6 fold (95% CI: 2.3-13.8; p = 0.001) higher for carriers than for the general population with a corresponding cumulative risk to 80 years of 4.5% (95% CI: 1.9-10.7%) compared with 0.8% for the general population. The mean age at diagnosis was 43.1 years (95% CI: 40.0-46.2), 3.9 years younger than the reported USA population mean of 47.0 years (p = 0.02). Women with MMR gene mutations were found to have an increased risk of cervical cancer. Due to limited pathology verification we cannot be certain that a proportion of these cases were not lower uterine segment endometrial cancers involving the endocervix, a recognized cancer of Lynch syndrome., (© 2015 UICC.)

Importance: Li-Fraumeni syndrome, usually characterized by germline TP53 mutations, is associated with markedly elevated lifetime risks of multiple cancers, and has been linked to an increased risk of early-onset colorectal cancer., Objective: To examine the frequency of germline TP53 alterations in patients with early-onset colorectal cancer., Design, Setting, and Participants: This was a multicenter cross-sectional cohort study of individuals recruited to the Colon Cancer Family Registry (CCFR) from 1998 through 2007 (genetic testing data updated as of January 2015). Both population-based and clinic-based patients in the United States, Canada, Australia, and New Zealand were recruited to the CCFR. Demographic information, clinical history, and family history data were obtained at enrollment. Biospecimens were collected from consenting probands and families, including microsatellite instability and DNA mismatch repair immunohistochemistry results. A total of a 510 individuals diagnosed as having colorectal cancer at age 40 years or younger and lacking a known hereditary cancer syndrome were identified from the CCFR as being potentially eligible. Fifty-three participants were excluded owing to subsequent identification of germline mutations in DNA mismatch repair genes (n = 47) or biallelic MUTYH mutations (n = 6)., Interventions: Germline sequencing of the TP53 gene was performed. Identified TP53 alterations were assessed for pathogenicity using literature and international mutation database searches and in silico prediction models., Main Outcomes and Measures: Frequency of nonsynonymous germline TP53 alterations., Results: Among 457 eligible participants (314, population-based; 143, clinic-based; median age at diagnosis, 36 years [range, 15-40 years]), 6 (1.3%; 95% CI, 0.5%-2.8%) carried germline missense TP53 alterations, none of whom met clinical criteria for Li-Fraumeni syndrome. Four of the identified TP53 alterations have been previously described in the literature in probands with clinical features of Li-Fraumeni syndrome, and 2 were novel alterations., Conclusions and Relevance: In a large cohort of patients with early-onset colorectal cancer, germline TP53 mutations were detected at a frequency comparable with the published prevalence of germline APC mutations in colorectal cancer. With the increasing use of multigene next-generation sequencing panels in hereditary cancer risk assessment, clinicians will be faced with the challenge of interpreting the biologic and clinical significance of germline TP53 mutations in families whose phenotypes are atypical for Li-Fraumeni syndrome.

Background: Awareness of individual risk may encourage improved prevention and early detection of melanoma., Methods: We evaluated the accuracy of self-reported pigmentation and nevus phenotype compared with clinical assessment, and examined agreement between nevus counts from selected anatomical regions. The sample included 456 cases with invasive cutaneous melanoma diagnosed between ages 18 to 39 years and 538 controls from the population-based Australian Melanoma Family Study. Participants completed a questionnaire about their pigmentation and nevus phenotype, and attended a dermatologic skin examination., Results: There was strong agreement between self-reported and clinical assessment of eye color [κ, = 0.78; 95% confidence interval (CI), 0.74-0.81]; and moderate agreement for hair color (κ = 0.46; 95% CI, 0.42-0.50). Agreement between self-reported skin color and spectrophotometer-derived measurements was poor (κ = 0.12; 95% CI, 0.08-0.16) to moderate (Spearman correlation rs = -0.37; 95% CI, -0.32 to -0.42). Participants tended to underestimate their nevus counts and pigmentation; men were more likely to underreport their skin color. The rs was 0.43 (95% CI, 0.38-0.49) comparing clinical total body nevus counts with self-reported nevus categories. There was good agreement between total body nevus counts and site-specific nevus counts, particularly on both arms., Conclusions: Young adults have suboptimal accuracy when assessing important risk characteristics including nevus numbers and pigmentation. Measuring nevus count on the arms is a good predictor of full body nevus count., Impact: These results have implications for the likely success of targeted public health programs that rely on self-assessment of these factors., (©2015 American Association for Cancer Research.)

We studied 2332 individuals with monoallelic mutations in MUTYH among 9504 relatives of 264 colorectal cancer (CRC) cases with a MUTYH mutation. We estimated CRC risks through 70 years of age of 7.2% for male carriers of monoallelic mutations (95% confidence interval [CI], 4.6%-11.3%) and 5.6% for female carriers of monoallelic mutations (95% CI, 3.6%-8.8%), irrespective of family history. For monoallelic MUTYH mutation carriers with a first-degree relative with CRC diagnosed by 50 years of age who does not have the MUTYH mutation, risks of CRC were 12.5% for men (95% CI, 8.6%-17.7%) and 10% for women (95% CI, 6.7%-14.4%). Risks of CRC for carriers of monoallelic mutations in MUTYH with a first-degree relative with CRC are sufficiently high to warrant more intensive screening than for the general population., (Copyright © 2014 AGA Institute. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)