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Wasmannia auropunctata, the little fire ant, is an invasive pest threatening native biodiversity, agricultural and forestry production, and public health. In January 2022, wild populations of W. auropunctata were reported for the first time on the Chinese mainland. However, the stage and degree of W. auropunctata invasion in China are unclear. Therefore, assessing the risk of establishment and the potential impacts associated with this pest is crucial for preventing further spread. This study used the Bayesian additive regression trees (BARTs) model and global occurrence records to assess the potential distribution of W. auropunctata in southern China and the associated risk of invading urban, rural, agricultural, and forest lands. The results from our models indicate that: (1) coastal areas, southwest, and central areas are particularly suitable for W. auropunctata establishment; (2) temperature, clay content, mean normalized differential vegetation index (NDVI), and urban area are important factors in the distribution of W. auropunctata; (3) the agricultural lands in the coastal areas and the Yunnan–Guangxi border, the urban and rural lands in the coastal areas, and grasslands in the southwest should prepare for possible W. auropunctata invasion; and (4) forest lands have the highest area at risk of W. auropunctata invasion in southern China. These results provide valuable information for planning and implementing the monitoring and control strategies against W. auropunctata invasion in China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In recent decades, ecological niche models (ENMs) have been widely used to predict suitable habitats for species. However, for invasive organisms, the prediction accuracy is unclear. In this study, we employed the most widely used maximum entropy (MaxEnt) model and ensemble model (EM) Biomod2 and verified the practical effectiveness of the ENM in predicting the distribution areas of invasive insects based on the true occurrence of Hyphantria cunea in China. The results showed that when only limited data of invasive areas were used, the two ENMs could not effectively predict the distribution of suitable habitats of H. cunea, although the use of global data can greatly improve the prediction accuracy of ENMs. When analyzing the same data, Biomod2's prediction accuracy was significantly better than that of MaxEnt. For long‐term predictions, the area of suitable habitat predicted by the ENMs was much greater than the occurrence area; for short‐term predictions, the accuracy of the predicted area was significantly improved. Under the current conditions, the area of suitable habitat for H. cunea in China is 118 × 104 km2, of which 59.32% is moderately or highly suitable habitat. Future climate change could significantly increase the suitable habitat area of H. cunea in China, and the predicted area of suitable habitats in all climate scenarios exceeded 355 × 104 km2, accounting for 36.98% of the total land area in China. This study demonstrates the use of ENMs to study invasive insects and provides a reference for the management of H. cunea in China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Simple Summary: Global warming has led to changes in species distribution patterns, and climate change directly impacts species' spatial and temporal distributions, disrupting Earth's ecological equilibrium. Haloxylon ammodendron is a typical desert shrub and plays a vital role in maintaining the structure and function of an arid desert ecosystem. In this study, the Maxent model was employed to predict potentially suitable areas for H. ammodendron in the 2030s, 2050s, and 2070s. We found that the suitable distribution area is expected to expand slightly under shared socioeconomic pathway scenarios in the future. Haloxylon ammodendron (H. ammodendron) is a second-class protected plant of national significance in China that is known for its growth in desert and semidesert regions, where it serves as a desert ecosystem guardian by playing a substantial role in maintaining ecosystem structure and function. The changing global climate has substantially altered the growth conditions for H. ammodendron. This study focuses on identifying the key variables influencing the distribution of H. ammodendron and determining their potential impact on future distribution. We employed the Maxent model to evaluate the current climate suitability for H. ammodendron distribution and to project its future changes across various shared socioeconomic pathway (SSP) scenarios. Our findings indicate that precipitation during the warmest quarter and precipitation during the wettest month are the most influential variables affecting the potentially suitable habitats of H. ammodendron. The highly suitable habitat area for H. ammodendron currently covers approximately 489,800 km2. The Maxent model forecasts an expansion of highly suitable H. ammodendron habitat under all future SSP scenarios, with the extent of unsuitable areas increasing with greater global warming. The increased highly suitable habitats range from 40% (SSP585) to 80% (SSP126) by the 2070s (2060–2080). Furthermore, our results indicate a continued expansion of desertification areas due to global warming, highlighting the significant role of H. ammodendron in maintaining desert ecosystem stability. This study offers valuable insights into biodiversity preservation and ecological protection in the context of future climate change scenarios. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Tuta absoluta (Meyrick) (Lepidoptera: Gelechiidae) originated in South America and is a major pest of the economically critical solanaceous crops. It is devastating to tomatoes, attacking mainly the leaves, stems, flowers and fruits of tomato plants, and can cause up to 100% damage. T. absoluta invaded China in 2017 and expanded rapidly, severely impacting the tomato industry. To illustrate the detailed potential distribution of T. absoluta in China, we used CLIMEX and MaxEnt models to predict the potential distribution of this pest using historical and future climate data. CLIMEX predicts a wider potential distribution area for T. absoluta in China than MaxEnt, which suggests that most of China is suitable for its distribution, except for the Tarim Basin in southern Xinjiang, western Inner Mongolia and northwestern Gansu. Both models accurately predicted the known distribution of T. absoluta in the provinces of Yunnan and Guangxi, and the predictions by both models suggest the total distribution range of T. absoluta in China is to increase slightly with future changes in climate temperature. These predictions will help understand the influence of climate change on the potential distribution of T. absoluta in China and thus provide a theoretical foundation for developing early monitoring, quarantine and control strategies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Simple Summary: Based on the occurrence records and bioclimatic variables, the MaxEnt model was used to predict the potential geographical distribution of Heteronychus arator, Oryctes boas and Amphimallon majale worldwide, and we also discuss the possible distribution of Popillia japonica, Heteronychus arator, Oryctes monoceros, Oryctes boas and Amphimallon majale. The results showed that every continent has potential distribution areas for these species. In China, the potential distribution of Popillia japonica and Amphimallon majale was mainly concentrated in central eastern regions, while the presence of Heteronychus arator and Oryctes boas was mainly concentrated in the southwest areas. Oryctes monoceros has no possible distribution at present. Based on the predicted results, we recommend that the government carry out species monitoring to minimize financial losses. A hot topic in recent years is the prediction of the potential distribution of possible invasive insects. China is facing a great challenge due to invasive insects. Scarab beetles are a highly diverse group, and many of them are well-known invasive insects. Here, in order to prevent the invasion of scarab beetles in China, we screened the invasive insects globally and obtained a preliminary database of quarantine or invasive scarab beetles. From the obtained database, we selected the top five species (Popillia japonica, Heteronychus arator, Oryctes monoceros, Oryctes boas and Amphimallon majale) to discuss and analyzed the potential distribution of three species that have not invaded China by using the MaxEnt model. The prediction results show that every continent has potential distribution areas for these species. Specifically within China, Popillia japonica and Amphimallon majale were mainly concentrated in east central regions and Heteronychus arator and Oryctes boas were mainly distributed in the southwest areas, while Oryctes monoceros has no suitable area. Notably, Yunnan, Hunan, Jiangxi and Zhejiang province had a high risk of invasion. In general, local agriculture, forestry and customs departments in China should pay more attention to monitoring for the prevention of infestation by invasive insects. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The vicious invasive alien plant Amaranthus palmeri poses a serious threat to ecological security and food security due to its strong adaptability, competitiveness, and herbicide resistance. Predicting its potential habitats under current and future climate change is critical for monitoring and early warning. In this study, we used two sets of climate data, namely, WorldClim1.4 and RCPs (the historical climate data of WorldClim version 1.4 and future climate data of RCPs), WorldClim2.1 and SSPs (the historical climate data of WorldClim version 2.1 and future climate data of SSPs), to analyze the dominant environmental variables affecting the habitat suitability and predict the potential distribution of A. palmeri to climate change in China based on the MaxEnt model. The results show that (i) Temperature has a greater impact on the distribution of A. palmeri. The relative contributions of temperature‐related variables count to 70% or more, and the annual mean temperature (bio1) reached more than 40%. (ii) At present, the potentially suitable area is widely distributed in the central‐east and parts of southwest China, and the high suitable area is focused on the North China Plain. The potential suitable area predicted by WorldClim1.4 and WorldClim2.1 both accounts for about 31% of China's total land area. (iii) Future climate change will expand the suitable habitats to high latitudes and altitudes. The overall suitable area maximum increased to 44.93% under SSPs and 38.91% under RCPs. We conclude that climate change would increase the risk of A. palmeri expanding to high latitudes and altitudes, the results have practical implications for the effective long‐term management in response to the global warming of A. palmeri. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As an agricultural pest, the rice water weevil (RWW), Lissorhoptrus oryzophilus, poses a severe threat to agriculture in China. This study aimed to predict the suitable distribution of the RWW in China under current and future climatic conditions based on MaxEnt model with tuning parameters. The results showed that the dominant environmental variables that influenced the geographic distribution of RWW were temperature seasonality (Bio4), mean temperature of the coldest quarter (Bio11), precipitation seasonality (Bio15), and precipitation of the warmest quarter (Bio18). Under the current climatic conditions, the total suitable area of RWW in China was 391.0698 million hm2, accounting for 40.77% of China. These suitable areas were mainly located in eastern China, central China and southern China. There was considerable overlap between the suitable areas of RWW and rice cropping regions in China. Under future scenarios, the highly suitable areas for RWW would increase significantly. The centroid migration in the suitable areas of RWW showed a trend of moving eastward and northward. The results of this study can provide theory and data support for the monitoring, early warning and control of RWW. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Simple Summary: Wild populations of C. pictus and C. amherstiae have been decreasing due to habitat fragmentation and long-term uncontrolled poaching. To support the Chrysolophus spp.'s conservation, we simulated the potential distribution of the two species in China, calculated the patch fragmentation index of suitable habitats of Chrysolophus spp. in nature reserve areas and non-nature reserve areas, and analyzed the habitat status of C. pictus and C. amherstiae in China. Compared with the previous studies, their habitat areas have been reduced. In addition, most of the suitable habitats were not in nature reserves and were highly fragmented. We offer recommendations for the Chinese government to formulate conservation schemes for the Chrysolophus spp. population in the future. Over the past few years, the wild population of Chrysolophus spp. has decreased remarkably. Habitat fragmentation is a significant cause for this serious threat to the survival of Chrysolophus spp. population. In order to further understand the distribution of potentially suitable habitats of Chrysolophus spp., we used the maximum entropy model to predict the potentially suitable habitats of C. pictus and C. amherstiae in China based on the known distribution. According to the prediction results of the model, we calculated the landscape pattern index to compare the fragmentation of the two species' potential suitable habitats in nature reserves and non-nature reserves. The results showed that the potentially suitable habitat for Chrysolophus spp. only accounted for a small area of China. The suitable habitats for C. pictus were mainly in Sichuan, Shaanxi, Hubei, and other provinces, and the model predicts a total area of 359,053.06 km2. In addition, the suitable habitats for C. amherstiae were mainly distributed in the three-parallel-river area, with a potential total area of 215,569.83 km2. The model also showed that there was an overlap of suitable habitats between the two species in the western edge of the Sichuan Basin. Previously, hybrids of the two pheasants have already been found in this same overlapping area predicted by the model. The landscape pattern index showed that in the potentially suitable habitat for Chrysolophus spp., the fragmentation of non-nature reserve areas was higher than that of nature reserve areas. The results revealed the distribution of potentially suitable habitats for Chrysolophus spp. in China and highlighted that the suitable habitats in non-nature reserve areas were in urgent need of conservation, thereby providing a key reference for the conservation of the Chrysolophus spp. population in the future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Simple Summary: Plodia interpunctella (Hübner) is an important grain storage pest in China that is distributed in almost every province and that has caused huge economic losses. In this study, we adjusted the biological parameters of the Indian grain borer and then used the CLIMEX model to predict the detailed potential distribution of P. interpunctella in China under current and future conditions. Under historical climatic conditions, the central, northeastern, and southern regions of China are highly suitable habitats for it. Because of temperature change in the future climate, suitable habitats will increase in the eastern part of Qinghai and will decrease in the mid-eastern, northeastern, and southeastern parts of China. This study provides important information for controlling the further spread of the Indian corn borer in China. The Indian meal moth Plodia interpunctella (Hübner) (Lepidoptera: Pyralidae) is a notorious stored-grain pest that can be found in most parts of China. The corpses, excretions, and other secretions of P. interpunctella larvae cause serious grain pollution, seriously affecting the nutritional and economic value of stored grain in China. To elucidate the potential distribution of P. interpunctella in China, we used the CLIMEX 4.0 model to project the potential distribution of the pest using historical climate data (1960–1990) and estimated future climate data (2030, 2050, and 2070). Under the historical climate situation, P. interpunctella was distributed in most areas of China, and its highly favorable habitats account for 48.14% of its total potential distribution. Because of temperature change in the future climate, suitable habitats will increase in the eastern part of Qinghai and will decrease in the mid-eastern, northeastern, and southeastern parts of China. Under these scenarios, the area of this pest's highly favorable habitat will be reduced by 1.24 million km2, and its proportion will decrease to about 28.48%. These predicted outcomes will help to distinguish the impact of climate change on the potential distribution of P. interpunctella, thereby providing important information to design early forecasting and strategies to prevent pest harm to stored grain. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Bemisia tabaci is an important pest affecting agricultural and horticultural crops worldwide and comprises a complex of cryptic species. In China, the introduction of the two invasive cryptic species, Middle East-Asia Minor 1 (MEAM1) and Mediterranean (MED), has considerably affected the ecological niche of the native cryptic species. Based on occurrence records obtained through field surveys and high-resolution environmental data, using maximum entropy modelling, we established ecological niche models to predict the distribution of invasive and native cryptic species of B. tabaci in China and identified the differences in ecological niches. The results showed that the distribution range and niche breadth of the invasive cryptic species exceed that of the native cryptic species in the order of MED > MEAM1 > China1 > Asia1. There are different degrees of niche overlap and range overlap between cryptic species. Moreover, the important environmental variables affecting their distribution were different, as well as their response and adaptation to most environmental variables. Our results suggest that the B. tabaci species complex occupies a complex ecological niche in China. The findings improve our understanding of the ecological characteristics of B. tabaci species complex, which will be useful in the development of prevention and control strategies for this pest in China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Bulinus globosus, the main intermediate snail host of Schistosoma haematobium. The increased contacts between Africa and China could even lead to large-scale dissemination of B. globosus in China. Temperature is the key factor affecting fresh-water snail transmission. This study predicted potential risk of colonization of B. globosus in the mainland of China under climate change. Methods: We investigated minimum and maximum temperatures for B. globosus eggs, juveniles and adult snails kept under laboratory conditions to find the most suitable range by pinpointing the median effective temperatures (ET50). We also assessed the influence of temperature on spawning and estimated the accumulated temperature (AT). The average air temperatures between 1955 and 2019 in January and July, the coldest and hottest months in China, respectively, were collected from national meteorological monitoring stations and investigated in a geographic information system (GIS) using empirical Bayesian Kriging to evaluate the theoretical possibility for distribution of B. globosus in southern China based on temperature. Results: The effective minimum temperature (ET50min) for eggs, juveniles, adult snails and spawning were 8.5, 7.0, 7.0, 14.9 °C, respectively, with the corresponding maximum values (ET50max) of 36.6, 40.5, 40.2 and 38.1 °C. The AT was calculated at 712.1 ± 64.9 °C·d. In 1955, the potential B. globosus distribution would have had a northern boundary stretching from the coastal areas of Guangdong Province and Guangxi Autonomous Region to southern Yunnan Province. Since then, this line has gradually moved northward. Conclusions: Annual regeneration of B. globosus can be supported by the current climate conditions in the mainland of China, and a gradual expansion trend from south to north is shown in the study from 2015 to 2019. Thus, there is a potential risk of colonization of B. globosus in the mainland of China under climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

1. Hyphantria cunea is a problematic invasive species that has caused considerable damage to agricultural and forestry ecosystems in China. 2. We compared 19 bioclimate variables between its native country (the United States of America) and China to elucidate the environmental factors associated with its presence. Using present climate data (1970–2000) and projected future climate data (2050 and 2070) based on two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs 2.6 and 8.5), we used MaxEnt to predict the suitable habitat areas for H. cunea in the USA and China. Using these analyses, we predicted the niche change of H. cunea in China using the 'ecospat' package in R. 3. Our model predicts that climate change will generally increase the extent of suitable habitat in both China and the USA, although low latitude areas will be limited by future climate change. We also report low niche overlap between the USA and Chinese populations of H. cuena and significant differences in bioclimate variables associate with its presence in each country. Therefore, our results suggest H. cunea has adapted to several climatic conditions in China. This indicates the niche of H. cunea may shift and adapt to novel environmental conditions over the course of its spread. 4. Overall, the analysis of the environmental characteristics, niche changes, and suitable areas of H. cunea provides a basis for pest control and management strategies aimed at preventing further spread. Our methods may also be used to study other similar invasive species. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

[Display omitted] • Impacts of climate and land use change on the distribution of ticks were explored. • A model of different ticks showed diverse sensitivities to environmental factors. • The future distribution probability decreased under the scenario SSP5-RCP8.5. • The future potential distribution of ticks shifted further north in China. Ticks are known as vectors of several pathogens causing various human and animal diseases including Lyme borreliosis, tick-borne encephalitis, and Crimean-Congo hemorrhagic fever. While China is known to have more than 100 tick species well distributed over the country, our knowledge on the likely distribution of ticks in the future remains very limited, which hinders the prevention and control of the risk of tick-borne diseases. In this study, we selected four representative tick species which have different regional distribution foci in mainland China. i.e., Dermacentor marginatus , Dermacentor silvarum , Haemaphysalis longicornis and Ixodes granulatus. We used the MaxEnt model to identify the key environmental factors of tick occurrence and map their potential distributions in 2050 under four combined climate and socioeconomic scenarios (i.e., SSP1-RCP2.6, SSP2-RCP4.5, SSP3-RCP7.0 and SSP5-RCP8.5). We found that the extent of the urban fabric, cropland and forest, temperature annual range and precipitation of the driest month were the main determinants of the potential distributions of the four tick species. Under the combined scenarios, with climate warming, the potential distributions of ticks shifted to further north in China. Due to a decrease in the extent of forest, the distribution probability of ticks declined in central and southern China. In contrast with previous findings on an estimated amplification of tick distribution probability under the extreme emission scenario (RCP8.5), our studies projected an overall reduction in the distribution probability under RCP8.5, owing to an expected effect of land use. Our results could provide new data to help identify the emerging risk areas, with amplifying suitability for tick occurrence, for the prevention and control of tick-borne zoonoses in mainland China. Future directions are suggested towards improved quantity and quality of the tick occurrence database, comprehensiveness of factors and integration of different modelling approaches, and capability to model pathogen spillover at the human-tick interface. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Spatial genetic variation involves spatial genetic structure (SGS) and genetic diversity is important genetic features of plants. We first evaluated spatial genetic structure (SGS) and genetic diversity among four populations of Alsophila gigantea from Hainan Island, China, using inter-simple sequence repeat (ISSR) markers. Significant but weak FSGS was found in A. gigantea . High genetic diversity was identified at the species level and the population level. AMOVA analysis revealed a low level of genetic differentiation among the four populations with high gene flow. Mantel test showed no significant correlation between genetic distance and geographic distance. It was found that association between annual mean temperature and annual precipitation with FSGS. Combined with these spatial genetic variation, abundant precipitation and suitable temperature create a stable environment for A. gigantea in Hainan Island, which allows the fern to expand rapidly during the LGM. These results further emphasized the role of outcrossing, and history and environmental factors in the evolution of A. gigantea . This study also provided new insights on in local adaptation of A. gigantea to environmental fluctuations, and available genetic data to enhance the conservation for relict tree ferns. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Two models were used to predict the potential distribution of Ae. albopictus in China. • The future bioclimatic variables were under the SSP1–2.6. • The range of Ae. albopictus in China is predicted to expand westwards. Aedes albopictus (Skuse) (Diptera: Culicidae) is one of the 100 most invasive species in the world and represents a significant threat to public health. The distribution of Ae. albopictus has been expanding rapidly due to increased international trade, population movement, global warming and accelerated urbanization. Consequently, it is very important to know the potential distribution area of Ae. albopictus in advance for early warning and control of its spread and invasion. We randomly selected 282 distribution sites from 27 provincial-level administrative regions in China, and used the GARP and MaxEnt models to analyze and predict the current and future distribution areas of Ae. albopictus in China. The results showed that the current range of Ae. albopictus in China covers most provinces such as Yunnan and Guizhou Provinces, and the distribution of Ae. albopictus in border provinces such as Tibet, Gansu and Jilin Provinces tend to expand westwards. In addition, the potential distribution area of Ae. albopictus in China will continue to expand westwards due to future climate change under the SSP126 climate scenario. Furthermore, the results of environmental factor filtering showed that temperature and precipitation had a large effect on the distribution probability of Ae. albopictus. [Display omitted] [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate plays important roles in determining the geographical distribution of species, including the invasion area of alien species. Little is known, however, about the influence of climate change on the distribution area of invasive amphibian species in China. We adopted a maximum entropy model to predict the potential suitable invasive range of invasive bullfrogs Lithobates catesbeianus in China under two future climate scenarios in 2050 and 2070. Our results reveal that bullfrogs were mainly distributed in East and Central China at present, and the suitable area for the species may decrease in future. This suggests that climate change may negatively impact this alien-invasive species. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim: As a prominent geographical distribution centre for the dark coniferous forests, mountains of Southwest China (MSWC) is experiencing an unprecedented warming trend, posing severe challenges to the survival of dominant fir (Abies) species. Although plant's migration ability is a prerequisite for its survival in changing environments, it has often been ignored in species distribution models (SDMs). This study aimed to quantify the magnitude and direction of range changes by the year 2080 for six dominant fir species, that is Abies recurvata, Abies faxoniana, Abies squamata, Abies ernestii, Abies forrestii and Abies georgei, with an emphasis on exploring the relationship between migration ability and projected distributions. Location: The mountains of Southwest China. Methods: We applied the Maximum Entropy (Maxent) algorithm to calibrate ecological niche models and to project the climatically suitable areas (CSAs) of each species under two emission scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5). Additionally, we delimited future species ranges by three migration scenarios (full‐, no‐ and partial‐migration scenarios). Results: The simulations showed the distinctive responses of the six fir species to anthropogenic climate change (ACC). By 2080, the distribution areas of Abies recurvata were projected to decline only in the no‐migration scenario but increase under the full‐ and partial‐migration scenarios, while the other five species were projected to decline in the majority of emission × migration scenarios. Fir species in the southern region were predicted to be more vulnerable to ACC due to the larger losses in CSAs and a stronger effect of the partial‐migration scenario on the newly colonized areas of this group. The studied species showed a simulated migration trend (northward and westward) to the interior Qinghai‐Tibet Plateau under ACC. Main conclusions: Benefits or losses for species under ACC depended on the geographical location, their ecological niches and migration abilities, which provide essential insights for a spatial conservation assessment of biodiversity hotspots in the future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Pulse current cathodic protection had obvious advantages over traditional DC cathodic protection, but when square-wave pulse current was used for cathodic protection of oil well casing, the influence of pulse protection parameters on potential distribution was not very clear. Therefore, according to the current situation of oil fields in China, the typical formation characteristic structure of oil wells was selected and the cathodic protection model of pulse current for oil well casing was established. Based on the established model, the effects of pulse current parameters (frequency and duty cycle) and anode distance on the cathodic protection effect of square-wave pulse current were studied. The results showed that better protection effect could be obtained by choosing appropriate anode distance, high frequency, and moderate duty cycle. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) technique is used over Heifangtai loess terrace，Gansu province of China to map the distribution of potential loess landslides，the evolution of landslide deformation and the failure mode. Firstly，the archived synthetic aperture radar (SAR) datasets with different spatial resolutions and wavelengths from December 2006 to November 2017 are used to identify the potential landslides. Tens potential landslide areas are identified from December 2006 to March 2011 and from January 2016 to November 2016. Field investigation and optical remote sensing images validate the reliability and accuracy of the identified landslides. Then, the TerraSAR-X data with high spatial and temporal resolution are used to monitor the time series deformation of the typical unstable slopes. Results demonstrate that the landslides with the large accumulative deformation all occur in the following time，and the acceleration dates of failed landslides are successfully captured by InSAR time series results. Finally, two-dimensional deformation monitoring of loess landslide is conducted by combining with ascending and descending SAR datasets. The landslide failure mode are analyzed in depth according to the obtained two-dimensional deformation results，topographic map and remote sensing images. The accuracy of the obtained result is verified by field investigation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Graphical abstract Highlights • About 94.19% paddy fields in China are suitable for water saving irrigation (WSI). • China has the potential to increase 5.39–6.87% rice yield by fully applying WSI. • China has the potential to save 22.06–26.41% irrigation water for paddies by WSI. • China has the potential to reduce 32.11–39.11% Nitrogen loss from paddies by WSI. Abstract Water-saving irrigation (WSI) is a promising management practice for sustainable rice production. Shallow-wet irrigation (SWI), controlled irrigation (CI), intermittent irrigation (II), and rain-gathering irrigation (RGI) are four common WSI regimes used in China. Their water saving, pollutant reducing, and yield increasing effects were analysed based on literature survey from multi-site field studies across China. An index system considering the applicability and effect of different WSI regimes was developed to identify their potential distributions across China. The potential overall effect of WSI practices at the country level was then estimated. Results showed that CI had the highest average water saving rate (WSR) of 35.12% and the highest average pollutant reducing rate (PRR) of 54.97%, followed by RGI, SWI, and II; while CI had the lowest average yield increasing rate (YIR) (0.79%), followed by II (5.40%), SWI (8.12%), and RGI (11.80%). Overall, the larger the WSR , the larger higher PRR ; but the yield increasing effect will be diminished when the WSR is increased to a certain extent due to the resulting rice water stress. About 94.19% of the total paddy area in China are suitable for WSI practices and the unsuitable ones are mainly due to soil structure deterioration and low soil fertility. SWI is the most applicable WSI regime, suitable for 90.03% of paddy fields, followed by CI and II (23.33%), and RGI (4.16%). By full implementation of appropriate WSI regimes at the country level, the total WSR , PRR , and YIR are likely to reach 22.06–26.41%, 32.11–39.11%, and 5.39–6.87%, respectively. The application of WSI practices in China has noticeable potential to alleviate water shortage and non-point source pollution while ensuring high yield. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Highlights • Yield per hectare of sweet sorghum are influence by temperature and precipitation. • Xinjiang and Inner Mongolia are suitable for planting sweet sorghum. • The 2020 and 2050 biofuel goal can be satisfied by certain scenarios in this paper. • Climate change and land-use change are critical to energy crop development plan. Abstract Biofuel from energy crops will play an important role in supplying carbon-neutral fuel for the transport sector. However, there are large uncertainties regarding energy crop development and the energy crop potential and distribution need to be evaluated more comprehensively and systematically. In this study, we propose an integrated approach using the AquaCrop model, a geographic information system approach, and a scenario analysis and we conduct a land availability assessment with multiple factors including climate change, land use, soil, topography, regional crop management, and technological improvement to shed light on the potential production, distribution, and temporal-spatial variation of land suitable for sweet sorghum production in China. We evaluate a full range of spatial scales from 1-km resolution to a national assessment in four representative concentration pathways from 2010 to 2100. The results show that most provinces can plant sweet sorghum. The most suitable provinces for sweet sorghum production are Xinjiang, Heilongjiang, Jilin, Inner Mongolia, Yunnan, and Sichuan. The biofuel potential of sweet sorghum in high-slope farmland (0.30–0.73 EJ) and marginal land (11.98–15.18 EJ) can satisfy the biofuel goal in 2020 (0.12 EJ) and 2050 (6.70–8.60 EJ). Climate change and land-use change are critical factors influencing for the current implementation and long-term planning of energy crops in China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract Shale oil refers to oil stored in organic-rich shale. It is an important part of unconventional oil and provides a large amount of resources. Based on the systematic study of the geological characteristics of shale oil in China's major continental basins, the geological connotation of the "sweet area (section)" in shale oil is proposed in this paper, and it refers to areas (sections) that can be preferentially explored and developed in oil-bearing shale formations under current economic and technical conditions. The formation conditions and distribution characteristics of continental shale oil in China are analyzed with a focus on the geological properties of the Triassic Yanchang Formation in the Ordos Basin, the Cretaceous Qingshankou Formation in the Songliao Basin and the Permian Lucaogou Formation of the Jimusar Sag in the Junggar Basin. It is found that the "sweet areas" of shale oil with medium-high maturation are mainly located in thick shales with a Ro greater than 0.9%, and the "sweet sections" are mainly located in the middle and lower parts of the shale formation. The geological resources of continental shale oil in the major continental basins in China are estimated to be approximately 3700 × 108 tons. The in situ conversion process (ICP) may be a key technology for the effective development of medium-to low-mature shale oil. The scale, maximum burial depth and present depth of the organic-rich shale are proposed as the three key parameters for the optimization of pilot sites by taking the Triassic Yanchang Formation in the Ordos Basin as an example. Using ICP, it is expected that the recoverable resources of China's continental shale oil will be approximately (400–500) × 108 tons. The terminology of "man-made reservoir" is proposed in this paper. In an "man-made reservoir", the overall industrial output of the "sweet areas (sections)" is formed by artificial intervention and the construction of an underground fracture network system with "man-made permeability". Continental shale oil may be another revolutionary source of unconventional oil and is expected to be first successfully produced in China. Highlights • The "sweet areas(sections)" of continental shale oil with medium-high maturation are illustrated with examples and the resources are assessed. • The formation conditions and distribution characteristics of continental shale oil in China are analyzed. • Some important concepts are proposed, including "exploring oil into source kitchen", "source rock oil", "man-made oil reservoir", etc. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The genus Eudonia is rarely recorded in Tibet despite having a wide occurrence in the plateau. In the taxonomy of the genus, the morphological characters are insufficient to delimit the closely related congeners due to the subtly interspecific differences and conspicuously intraspecific variability. In this study, the Tibetan species are studied with an integrative approach using molecular data and morphological characters. It is found that the number of Eudonia species in Tibet accounts for about 20% of the total species previously catalogued for the genus in China. Five species are described as new to science: Eudonia galonglaensis Li, sp. nov., E. varians Li, sp. nov., E. triangulata Li, sp. nov., E. angusta Li, sp. nov., and E. bomiensis Li, sp. nov. The potential distribution of Chinese Eudonia is predicted and illustrated using MaxEnt and DIVA-GIS. The results reveal the exceptionally high species diversity of Eudonia in Tibet for the first time, demonstrate that the integrative morphological and molecular approach is highly effective for resolving the difficult-to-distinguish morphologies, and predict the region of China to the south of 35°N and to the east of 95°E as having potentially high Eudonia species diversity. http://www.zoobank.org/urn:lsid:zoobank.org:pub:EA3C5D21-9674-46E4-838D-48D5A098314B [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Ornithodoros ticks as vectors of pathogens have had serious implications on public health. In China, these ticks are mainly distributed among arid and semiarid areas of the northwest. To improve prevention and risk control of such tick-borne diseases, suitable habitats for four Ornithodoros tick species found in China were predicted using a Maxent model. These habitats were identified based on the global geographic distributions that the tick is known to inhabit. For this study, literature reviews were conducted for each Ornithodoros species at a global level based on published studies and available online databases. Study results showed that high species suitability was primarily concentrated in northwest China for the species Ornithodoros lahorensis , O. papillipes , and O. tartakovskyi , with O. capensis limited to a predicted distribution along the coast in southeastern China. Under future climate conditions Representative Concentration Pathway scenario 4.5 and 8.5, suitable habitats for O. lahorensis , O. papillipes , and O. tartakovskyi were predicted to shift and would likely increase the potential of the species to spread, and O. capensis would reduce compared with the current climatic conditions. For all four species, temperature and precipitation were the main variables influencing distribution. • Northwest China was high species suitability areas for Ornithodoros. • O. capensis limited to a predicted distribution along the coast in southeastern China. • Using atmospheric and ground-derived data to assess the environmental niche. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In recent years, Italian cocklebur (Xanthium italicum Moretti) and stab cocklebur (X. spinosum Linnaeus) has become rapidly expanded invasive plants in Xinjiang, China. Some of their mature fruits set down on the dry ground, some might fall into the water, and the other might remain on the branches of the mother plant until next spring. The habitats that seeds are exposed to in the winter will affect the seed germination in the following year. To assess their invasiveness, predict their potential distribution area, and provide scientific guidance for effective prevention and control of the invaders, four kinds of natural winter habitats that the seeds might be exposed to in Xinjiang were simulated in our study. In conclusion, seeds of X. italicum has a better over-winter performance than that of X. spinosum. We suggested that province-wide monitor of the X. italicum in Xinjiang should be carried out. However, X. spinosum should be mainly monitored in moderate and arid habitats at lower latitude and altitude regions. • Seeds of Xanthium italicum can overwinter successfully in Xinjiang of China, whatever they fall on ground, fall into water, or stay on branches of their mother plants. • Seeds of Xanthium spinosum staying on their mother plants or falling on ground can safely overwinter in Xinjiang of China, but hardly can the seeds falling into the water. • In view of seed germination characteristics of the two invaders, it is suggested that different strategies should be adopted to monitor them. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Eastern China was once listed as an area infested with the invasive codling moth Cydia pomonella L. ( Lepidoptera: Tortricide). Intensive efforts later revealed the absence of such infestation. Currently, the majority of the population is distributed in western China. A disjunct population is also observed in the north east., In present study, the disjunct distribution was interpreted by mapping the climate dimension and potential distribution using an ecological niche modelling approach. The preferred niche models were utilized to identify the relative roles of climate, human influence and vegetation with respect to the present distribution and also to extrapolate the climate dimensions suitable for the codling moth in China., The results of the present study suggest that a combination of climate suitability and human influence explain the range expansion. Undistributed areas in eastern China were found to have low to medium climate suitability. Nonetheless, these areas belong to apple-growing regions that have high propagule pressure; thus, eventual establishment appears to be possible because of host plant availability, human activity and the wide ecological flexibility of the moth., Highly suitable habitats were found to be strongly related to high temperature and low precipitation throughout the year, whereas areas with low temperature and plenty of rainfall are unfavourable. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The invasion of Ambrosia artemisiifolia and Ambrosia trifida from their native range to occupy large areas in China has raised considerable concern. Using the maximum entropy ( Maxent) method, we developed models for each Ambrosia species, based on occurrence records from both native ranges ( North America) and their invaded ranges (e.g. northern and south-western Europe) to predict the availability and distribution of suitable habitats for these two species in China. For each species, we also assessed potential shifts in habitat suitability for the year 2050, using three general circulation models ( GCMs) and two emission scenarios. Elevation and average mean precipitation in October contributed most to model development for both species. Potential distribution projections under future climatic change scenarios suggested an averaged percentage of suitable area (2.21%) and habitat gain (1.49%) in A. artemisiifolia distribution, with further expansion to environmentally favourable locations in south-east coastal regions, northern Taiwan and the Beijing- Tianjin- Tangshan area in northern China. Future predicted percentage of suitable area for A. trifida was 0.03% with a very limited suitable habitat gain of <1% although this species had the potential to continue to spread in northern China. Our findings suggest that management priorities should be focused on A. artemisiifolia, whilst effective control strategies for A. trifida may be optimised by concentrating efforts on those relatively fewer regions of China where the species is currently abundant. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Understanding how the direct and indirect effects of climate change may affect species distributions is a key topic in ecology. We used maximum entropy models to explore the distribution of two species of shrews (Chodsigoa hypsibia and Anourosorex squamipes) in China and analyzed the main environmental factors affecting their current distribution and potential distribution changes under two future climate scenarios. The results showed that the major environmental factors determining the current distribution of C. hypsibia were the mean temperature of the coldest quarter (contributing 47.4%), annual mean temperature (contributing 24.7%), precipitation of the driest quarter (contributing 21.1%) and isothermality (contributing 6%). Annual precipitation (contributing 42.9%), precipitation of the driest month (contributing 28.1%), annual mean temperature (contributing 14.8%) and temperature seasonality (contributing 12.6%) had the highest contributions to the distribution of A. squamipes. Under future climate scenarios, the suitable habitat range of C. hypsibia increased while that of A. squamipes decreased. These findings demonstrate that different small mammal species respond differently to climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Simple Summary: Apocheima cinerarius (Erschoff) is an important forest pest in China. It has many hosts and occurs in 20 provinces of China, causing huge economic and ecological losses. The northern temperate zone (north latitude 30–50° N) and the south temperate zone (south latitude 20–60° S) are areas suitable for this pest, although with irrigation, suitability is reduced and the suitable area is smaller, and so superimposed irrigation will make the suitable area smaller. With projected climate change, the suitable area of A. cinerarius will move northward. A model based on climate and available hosts for A. cinerarius indicates potential for its diffusion and colonization. This research provides a theoretical basis for preventing and controlling the invasion and spread of A. cinerarius. Among the impacts of ongoing and projected climate change are shifts in the distribution and severity of insect pests. Projecting those impacts is necessary to ensure effective pest management in the future. Apocheima cinerarius (Erschoff) (Lepidoptera: Geometridae) is an important polyphagous forest pest in China where causes huge economic and ecological losses in 20 provinces. Under historical climatic conditions, the suitable areas for A. cinerarius in China are mainly in the northern temperate zone (30–50° N) and the southern temperate zone (20–60° S). Using the CLIMEX model, the potential distribution of the pest in China and globally, both historically and under climate change, were estimated. Suitable habitats for A. cinerarius occur in parts of all continents. With climate change, its potential distribution extends northward in China and generally elsewhere in the northern hemisphere, although effects vary depending on latitude. In other areas of the world, some habitats become less suitable for the species. Based on the simulated growth index in CLIMEX, the onset of A. cinerarius would be earlier under climate change in some of its potential range, including Spain and Korea. Measures should anticipate the need for prevention and control of A. cinerarius in its potential extended range in China and globally. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

[Display omitted] • The climate suitability of cotton distribution is mapped using MaxEnt model. • The areas of improved climatic suitability comprised 38.08 % of the entire country. • Cotton production moved northward and expanded westward. • Consistency between climate suitability and production showed a decreasing trend. Understanding the varying distribution of climate-suitable areas of cotton (Gossypium hirsutum L.) can greatly aid in optimizing distribution of cotton production and sustainable production. Based on occurrence records, national meteorological data and the maximum entropy (MaxEnt) model (a species distribution model), we investigated for the first time the interdecadal variations in climate-suitable areas of cotton with changing climate in China from 1961 to 2017. Then, the gravity center and concentration index were employed to investigate the spatial-temporal variations of cotton production. The results revealed the dominant meteorological predictors affecting climate suitability of cotton to be ≥ 28℃ accumulated maximum temperature from April to October, average temperature in the warmest month, continuous days with daily average temperature ≥15 ℃ and annual precipitation days. The climate optimum areas were generally distributed in the eastern and northern parts of the Huanghe Valley and Northwest Inland cotton regions, respectively. The climatic suitability of cotton has increased in China in recent decades. In particular, the areas of improved climatic suitability of cotton encompassed 38.08 % of the whole country from the 1960s to 2010s. This increase was concentrated in the Huanghe Valley and Northwest Inland cotton regions. The distribution of climate-suitable areas moved northward and expanded westward. Meanwhile, the gravity center of the cotton production moved to the northwest at a distance of approximately 1283 km from 1985 to 2015. Although both the production and distribution of climate-suitable areas of cotton shifted towards the northwest, the proportions of inconsistency between planting areas and climate-suitable areas increased from 22.76 % in the 1980s to 32.38 % in the 2010s. The increasing planting acreage in areas of low climate suitability may pose a risk to cotton production, especially in emerging major planting areas of the Northwest Inland cotton region. The results of the present study can provide a theoretical reference for the optimization of planting distribution and ensure the sustainable production of the cotton industry. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Tibetan spruce ( Picea smithiana) is an endemic species of the Himalayas, and it distributes only in a restricted area with very low number. To address the lack of detailed distributional information, we used maximum entropy (Maxent) niche-based model to predict the species' potential distribution from limited occurrence-only records. The location data of P. smithiana, relative bioclimatic variables, vegetation data, digital elevation model (DEM), and the derived data were analyzed in Maxent. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was applied to assess the prediction accuracy. The Maxent jackknife test was performed to quantify the training gains from data layers and the response of P. smithiana distribution to four typical environmental variables was analyzed. Results show that the model performs well at the regional scale. There is a potential for continued expansion of P. smithiana population numbers and distribution in China. P. smithiana potentially distributes in the lower reaches of Gyirong Zangbo and Poiqu rivers in Gyirong and Nyalam counties in Qomolangma (Mount Everest) National Nature Preserve (QNNP), China. The species prefers warm temperate climate in mountain area and mainly distributes in needle-leaved evergreen closed to open forest and mixed forest along the river valley at relatively low altitudes of about 2000-3000 m. Model simulations suggest that distribution patterns of rare species with few species numbers can be well predicted by Maxent. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The wetland ecosystem is particularly vulnerable to hydrological and climate changes. The Great Xing'an Mountain is such a region in China that has a large area of wetlands with rare human disturbance. The predictions of the global circulation model CGCM3 (the third-generation coupled global climate model from the Canadian Centre for Climate Modeling and Analysis) indicated that the temperature in The Great Xing'an Mountain will rise by 2-4°C over the next 100 years. This paper predicts the potential distributions of wetlands in this area under the current and warming climate conditions. This predication was performed by the Random Forests model, with 18 environmental variables, which will reflect the climate and topography conditions. The model has been proven to have a great prediction ability. The wetland distributions are primarily topography-driven in the Great Xing'an Mountains. Mean annual temperature, warmness index, and potential evapotranspiration ratio are the most important climatic factors in wetland distributions. The model predictions for three future climate scenarios show that the wetland area tends to decrease, and higher emission will also cause more drastic shrinkage of wetland distributions. About 30% of the wetland area will disappear by 2050. The area will decrease 62.47, 76.90, and 85.83%, respectively, under CGCM3-B1, CGCM3-A1B, and CGCM3-A2 by 2100. As for spatial allocation, wetlands may begin to disappear from the sides to the center and south to north under a warming climate. Under CGCM3-B1, the loss of wetlands may mainly occur in the south hills with flatter terrain, and some may occur in the north hills and intermontane plains. Under CGCM3-A1B, severe vanish of wetlands is predicted. Under CGCM3-A2, only a small area of wetlands may remain in the north of the high mountains. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The chestnut phylloxerid, Moritziella castaneivora, has been recently recorded as a forest pest in China. It heavily damaged chestnut trees and has caused serious economic losses in some main chestnut production areas. In order to effectively monitor and manage this pest, it is necessary to investigate its potential geographical distribution worldwide. In this study, we used two ecological niche models, Genetic Algorithm for Rule-set Production (GARP) and Maximum Entropy (Maxent), along with the geographical distribution of the host plants, Japanese chestnut ( Castanea crenata) and Chinese chestnut ( Castanea mollissima), to predict the potential geographical distribution of M. castaneivora. The results suggested that the suitable distribution areas based on GARP were general consistent with those based on Maxent, but GARP predicted distribution areas that extended more in size than did Maxent. The results also indicated that the suitable areas for chestnut phylloxerid infestations were mainly restricted to Northeast China (northern Liaoning), East China (southern Shandong, northern Jiangsu and western Anhui), North China (southern Hebei, Beijing and Tianjin), Central China (eastern Hubei and southern Henan), Japan (Kinki, Shikoku and Tohoku) and most parts of the Korean Peninsula. In addition, some provinces of central and western China were predicted to have low suitability or unsuitable areas (e.g. Xinjiang, Qinghai and Tibet). A jackknife test in Maxent showed that the average precipitation in July was the most important environmental variable affecting the distribution of this pest species. Consequently, the study suggests several reasonable regulations and management strategies for avoiding the introduction or invasion of this high-risk chestnut pest to these potentially suitable areas. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Invasive exotic species pose a growing threat to the economy, public health, and ecological integrity of nations worldwide. Explaining and predicting the spatial distribution of invasive exotic species is of great importance to prevention and early warning efforts. We are investigating the potential distribution of invasive exotic species, the environmental factors that influence these distributions, and the ability to predict them using statistical and information-theoretic approaches. For some species, detailed presence/absence occurrence data are available, allowing the use of a variety of standard statistical techniques. However, for most species, absence data are not available. Presented with the challenge of developing a model based on presence-only information, we developed an improved logistic regression approach using Information Theory and Frequency Statistics to produce a relative suitability map. This paper generated a variety of distributions of ragweed (Ambrosia artemisilfolia L.) from logistic regression models applied to herbarium specimen location data and a suite of GIS layers including climatic, topographic, and land cover information. Our logistic regression model was based on Akaike's Information Criterion (AIC) from a suite of ecologically reasonable predictor variables. Based on the results we provided a new Frequency Statistical method to compartmentalize habitat-suitability in the native range. Finally, we used the model and the compartmentalized criterion developed in native ranges to "project" a potential distribution onto the exotic ranges to build habitat-suitability maps. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

With ongoing economic development and population growth in China, large quantities of wastewater are discharged and substantial amounts of sewage sludge are generated, which is a potential biomass resource for methane production. This study used data from statistics yearbooks and literatures to evaluate the spatio-temporal distribution of sludge generation, potential and distribution of methane production from sludge, and the potential of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reduction (PGER) from sludge treatment and disposal in provinces in mainland China. The results showed that a total of 6.03 Mt of dry solids in 2015. The eastern part of the country produced more sludge than that the western part. The standard coal equivalence of sludge was 3.5 Mt, ranged from 0.7 to 399.8 Kt, among the 31 provinces of mainland China. Total sludge could produce 1.27 billion m3 of methane per year through anaerobic digestion (AD). The distribution of methane density exhibited that the east part was higher than the west part in China. The GHG emissions totaled 18.82 Mt CO 2 -eq as a baseline for the current sludge disposal methods without AD technology. The PGER was 10.77 Mt CO 2 -eq for the sludge disposal routes with AD technology. The sludge disposal for the project route of building material exhibited the highest PGER of 4.24 Mt CO 2 -eq among the disposal methods. As the least GHG emissions method, sludge treated by AD and the residue disposed for land using as fertilizer should be recommended. Our findings provide a sludge disposal reference for the government and industries. For further study, it is suggested to take the co-digestion technology into consideration for sewage sludge to produce methane, which would perform a higher methane production and GHG emissions reduction potential. Image 1 • A total of 6.03 Mt dry solids of sludge were generated in China in 2015. • Dry sludge with calorific value of 3.5 Mt was generated in 2015. • Methane production potential from sludge was estimated at 1.27 billion m3 in 2015. • Land application after anaerobic digestion can reduce GHG by 177.7 Kt CO 2 -eq. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Understanding the impact and restriction of climate change on potential distribution of bamboo forest is crucial for sustainable management of bamboo forest and bamboo-based economic development. In this study, climatic variables and maximum entropy model were used to simulate the potential distribution of bamboo forest in China under the future climate scenarios. Seven climatic variables, such as Spring precipitation, Summer precipitation, Autumn precipitation, average annual relative humidity, Autumn average temperature, average annual temperature range and annual total radiation, were selected as input variables of maximum entropy model based on the relative importance of those climate variables for predicting bamboo forest presence. The suitable ranges of the seven climatic variables for potential distribution of bamboo forest were 337–794 mm, 496–705 mm, 213–929 mm, 74.3%–83.4%, 16.6–23.8 °C, 2.3–10.1 °C and 3.2 × 104–4.3 × 104 W m−2, respectively. Under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 climate scenarios, the suitable area of bamboo forest growth first increased and then decreased, and showed range contractions towards the interior and expansions towards southwest in China. The results of the present study can serve as a useful reference to dynamic monitoring of the spatial distribution and sustainable utilization of bamboo forest in the future under climate change. Image 1 • Bamboo forest distribution predicted by MaxEnt model in the future climate scenarios. • Spring precipitation was the most critical factor limiting bamboo forest distribution. • Bamboo forest contracted towards interior and expanded towards southwestern. • Potential distribution of bamboo forest varies obvious in the future climate scenarios. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Zingiber species distribution and richness were studied based on accession records. • Key bioclimatic determinants of Zingiber species distribution were identified. • Present and future potential distribution of Zingiber species were examined. • Some species may will be considerably reduced, necessitating conservation efforts. Climate change has a crucial impact on plant resources distribution, especially on agricultural crops. Species belonging to genus Zingiber are important crop resources in China, and their rhizomes are widely used in medicine and food. In this study, the ecological distribution and richness of the genus Zingiber were analyzed using a DIVA-GIS analysis of 967 georeferenced herbarium records to produce present and future distribution simulations using the MaxEnt model. The results showed that the genus Zingiber is widely distributed in 28 provinces in China, with the greatest richness in Guangxi, Guangdong, and Yunnan. Based on our model, precipitation of the driest month, precipitation of the warmest quarter, and the minimum temperature of the coldest month were the most significant bioclimatic variables controlling the distribution of five selected Zingiber species. Future climate change will likely result in the increase of suitable habitat area for Zingiber officinale by 2.85%, but dramatically decrease that for Zingiber striolatum by 18.04%, Zingiber zerumbet by 17.87%, Zingiber corallinum by 12.40%, and Zingiber mioga by 9.46%. Thus, conservation measures should be taken to preserve these valuable resources. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]