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The lack of information regarding biodiversity status hampers designing and implementing conservation strategies and achieving future targets. Northern Pakistan consists of a unique ecoregion mosaic which supports a myriad of environmental niches for anuran diversity in comparison to the deserts and xeric shrublands throughout the rest of the country. In order to study the niche suitability, species overlap and distribution patterns in Pakistan, we collected observational data for nine anuran species across several distinct ecoregions by surveying 87 randomly selected locations from 2016 to 2018 in Rawalpindi District and Islamabad Capital Territory. Our model showed that the precipitation of the warmest and coldest quarter, distance to rivers and vegetation were the greatest drivers of anuran distribution, expectedly indicating that the presence of humid forests and proximity to waterways greatly influences the habitable range of anurans in Pakistan. Sympatric overlap between species occurred at significantly higher density in tropical and subtropical coniferous forests than in other ecoregion types. We found species such as Minervarya spp., Hoplobatrachus tigerinus and Euphlyctis spp. preferred the lowlands in proximal, central and southern parts of the study area proximal to urban settlements, with little vegetation and higher average temperatures. Duttaphrynus bengalensis and D. stomaticus had scattered distributions throughout the study area with no clear preference for elevation. Sphaerotheca pashchima was patchily distributed in the midwestern extent of the study area as well as the foothills to the north. Microhyla nilphamariensis was widely distributed throughout the study area with a preference for both lowlands and montane terrain. Endemic frogs (Nanorana vicina and Allopaa hazarensis) were observed only in locations with higher elevations, higher density of streams and lower average temperatures as compared to the other seven species sampled. It is recommended to provide legal protection to amphibians of Pakistan, especially endemic species, through revision in the existing wildlife laws. We suggest studying the effectiveness of existing amphibian tunnels and corridors or designing new ones tailored to the needs of our species to prevent their local extinction due to ongoing or proposed urban development which might affect their dispersal and colonization. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The snow leopard is one of the highly valued species from high-altitude mountain ecosystems of Central and Southeast Asia, including Pakistan. This keystone species is facing a myriad of conventional and emerging threats, including poaching and trade, that are poorly documented in Pakistan. To understand the dynamics and drivers of the poaching and trading of snow leopards in Pakistan, we investigated the issue in depth through a multifaceted survey in the snow leopard range of the country. We recorded 101 snow leopard poaching incidences from 11 districts during 2005--2017. The reported poaching incidences varied spatially (x̄ = 9 ± 2.6 [95% Cl: 3-15]) and temporally (x̄ = 7.8 ± 1.09) and accounted for 2-4% annual population loss (n = 200-420) in a period of 13 years. Poaching and trade together constituted 89% of the total incidence reported and animals were mostly shot (66%), poisoned (12%), snared (12%) and captured (4%), respectively. Only a fraction (3%) of the incidences were reported to the relevant law enforcement agencies. Trade routes included large cities and neighbouring countries, even the Middle East and Europe. The average base and end prices for each item were 245 ± 36 USD and 1,736 ± 520 USD, respectively, while maximum monetary fines set as per the law were 275 USD. Our results establish the need for developing multi-stakeholder coordination mechanisms at regional, national and international levels and information sharing to curb this menace. Improving the existing laws and surveillance system, while taking the local communities onboard, will further help to this end. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change is expected to impact a large number of organisms in many ecosystems, including several threatened mammals. A better understanding of climate impacts on species can make conservation efforts more effective. The Himalayan ibex (Capra ibex sibirica) and blue sheep (Pseudois nayaur) are economically important wild ungulates in northern Pakistan because they are sought-after hunting trophies. However, both species are threatened due to several human-induced factors, and these factors are expected to aggravate under changing climate in the High Himalayas. In this study, we investigated populations of ibex and blue sheep in the Pamir-Karakoram mountains in order to (i) update and validate their geographical distributions through empirical data; (ii) understand range shifts under climate change scenarios; and (iii) predict future habitats to aid long-term conservation planning. Presence records of target species were collected through camera trapping and sightings in the field. We constructed Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) model on presence record and six key climatic variables to predict the current and future distributions of ibex and blue sheep. Two representative concentration pathways (4.5 and 8.5) and two-time projections (2050 and 2070) were used for future range predictions. Our results indicated that ca. 37% and 9% of the total study area (Gilgit-Baltistan) was suitable under current climatic conditions for Himalayan ibex and blue sheep, respectively. Annual mean precipitation was a key determinant of suitable habitat for both ungulate species. Under changing climate scenarios, both species will lose a significant part of their habitats, particularly in the Himalayan and Hindu Kush ranges. The Pamir-Karakoram ranges will serve as climate refugia for both species. This area shall remain focus of future conservation efforts to protect Pakistan's mountain ungulates. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Throughout the world, livestock predation by mammalian carnivores causes significant economic losses to poor farmers, and leads to human–wildlife conflicts. These conflicts result in a negative attitude towards carnivore conservation and often trigger retaliatory killing. In northern Pakistan, we investigated livestock depredation by large carnivores between 2014 and 2019, and subsequent Human–wildlife conflict, through questionnaire-based surveys (n = 100 households). We used a semi-structured questionnaire to collect data on livestock population, depredation patterns, predation count, and conservation approaches. We found a statistically significant increasing pattern of predation with influential factors such as age, gender, occupation, education of respondents, population of predators, threats index for predators and conservation efforts. Some 310 livestock heads with an average of 51 animals per year out of the total 9273 heads were killed by predators, and among them 168 (54%) were attributed to the wolf and 142 (45.8%) to snow leopard. Major threats to carnivores in the area included retaliatory killing, habitat destruction and climate change. Incentivization against depredation losses, guarded grazing and construction of predator-proof corral may reduce Human–wildlife conflict and both livelihood and predator can be safeguarded in the study area. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The simultaneous development of technology (e.g. camera traps) and statistical methods, particularly spatially capture–recapture (SCR), has improved monitoring of large mammals in recent years. SCR estimates are known to be sensitive to sampling design, yet existing recommendations about trap spacing and coverage are often not achieved, particularly for sampling wide-ranging and rare species in landscapes that allow for limited accessibility. Consequently, most camera trap studies on large wide-ranging carnivores relies on convenience or judgmental sampling, and often yields compromised results. This study attempts to highlight the importance of carefully considered sampling design for large carnivores that, because of low densities and elusive behavior, are challenging to monitor. As a motivating example, we use two years of snow leopard camera trapping data from the same areas in the high mountains of Pakistan but with vastly different camera configurations, to demonstrate that estimates of density and space use are indeed sensitive to the trapping array. A compact design, one in which cameras were placed much closer together than generally recommended and therefore have lower spatial coverage, resulted in fewer individuals observed, but more recaptures, and estimates of density and space use were inconsistent with expectations for the region. In contrast, a diffuse design, one with larger spacing and spatial coverage and more consistent with general recommendations, detected more individuals, had fewer recaptures, but generated estimates of density and space use that were in line with expectations. Researchers often opt for compact camera configurations while monitoring wide-ranging and rare species, in an attempt to maximize the encounter probabilities. We empirically demonstrate the potential for biases when sampling a small area approximately the size of a single home range—this arises from exposing fewer individuals than deemed sufficient for estimation. The smaller trapping array may also underestimate density by significantly inflating σ . On the other hand, larger trapping array with fewer detectors and poor design induces uncertainties in the estimates. We conclude that existing design recommendations have limited utility on practical grounds for devising feasible sampling designs for large ranging species, and more research on SCR designs is required that allows for integrating biological and habitat traits of large carnivores in sampling framework. We also suggest that caution should be exercised when there is a reliance on convenience sampling. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The relative effects of climate warming with grazing on medicinally important plants are not fully understood in Hindukush-Himalaya (HKH) region. Therefore, we combined the indigenous knowledge about culturally important therapeutic plants and climate change with experimental warming (open-top chambers) and manual clipping (simulated grazing effect) and compared the relative difference on aboveground biomass and percent cover of plant species at five alpine meadow sites on an elevation gradient (4696 m-3346 m) from 2016–2018. Experimental warming increased biomass and percent cover throughout the experiment. However, the interactive treatment effect (warming x clipping) was significant on biomass but not on percent cover. These responses were taxa specific. Warming induced an increase of 1 ± 0.6% in Bistorta officinalis percent cover while for Poa alpina it was 18.7 ± 4.9%. Contrastingly, clipping had a marginally significant effect in reducing the biomass and cover of all plant species. Clipping treatment reduced vegetation cover & biomass by 2.3% and 6.26%, respectively, but that was not significant due to the high variability among taxa response at different sites. It was found that clipping decreased the effects of warming in interactive plots. Thus, warming may increase the availability of therapeutic plants for indigenous people while overgrazing would have deteriorating effects locally. The findings of this research illustrate that vegetation sensitivity to warming and overgrazing is likely to affect man–environment relationships, and traditional knowledge on a regional scale. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Pakistan's total estimated snow leopard habitat is about 80,000 km2 of which about half is considered prime habitat. However, this preliminary demarcation was not always in close agreement with the actual distribution—the discrepancy may be huge at the local and regional level. Recent technological developments like camera trapping and molecular genetics allow for collecting reliable presence records that could be used to construct realistic species distribution based on empirical data and advanced mathematical approaches like MaxEnt. The current study followed this approach to construct an accurate distribution of the species in Pakistan. Moreover, movement corridors, among different landscapes, were also identified through circuit theory. The probability of habitat suitability, generated from 98 presence points and 11 environmental variables, scored the snow leopard's assumed range in Pakistan, from 0 to 0.97. A large portion of the known range represented low-quality habitat, including areas in lower Chitral, Swat, Astore, and Kashmir. Conversely, Khunjerab, Misgar, Chapursan, Qurumber, Broghil, and Central Karakoram represented high-quality habitats. Variables with higher contributions in the MaxEnt model were precipitation during the driest month (34%), annual mean temperature (19.5%), mean diurnal range of temperature (9.8%), annual precipitation (9.4%), and river density (9.2). The model was validated through receiver operating characteristic (ROC) plots and defined thresholds. The average test AUC in Maxent for the replicate runs was 0.933 while the value of AUC by ROC curve calculated at 0.15 threshold was 1.00. These validation tests suggested a good model fit and strong predictive power. The connectivity analysis revealed that the population in the Hindukush landscape appears to be more connected with the population in Afghanistan as compared to other populations in Pakistan. Similarly, the Pamir-Karakoram population is better connected with China and Tajikistan, while the Himalayan population was connected with the population in India. Based on our findings we propose three model landscapes to be considered under the Global Snow Leopard Ecosystem Protection Program (GSLEP) agenda as regional priority areas, to safeguard the future of the snow leopard in Pakistan and the region. These landscapes fall within mountain ranges of the Himalaya, Hindu Kush and Karakoram-Pamir, respectively. We also identified gaps in the existing protected areas network and suggest new protected areas in Chitral and Gilgit-Baltistan to protect critical habitats of snow leopard in Pakistan. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Population monitoring data may originate from multiple methods and are often sparse and fraught with incomplete information due to practical and economic constraints. Models that can integrate multiple survey methods and are able to cope with incomplete data may help investigators exploit available information more thoroughly. Here, we developed an integrated spatial capture–recapture (SCR) model to incorporate multiple data sources with imperfect individual identification. We contrast inferences drawn from this model with alternate models incorporating only subsets of the data available. Using extensive simulations and an empirical example of multi‐method brown bear (Ursus arctos) monitoring data from northern Pakistan, we quantified the benefits of including multiple sources of information in SCR models in terms of parameter precision and bias. Our multiple observation processes SCR model (MOP) yielded a more complete picture of the underlying processes, reduced bias, and led to more precise parameter estimates. Our results suggest that the greatest gains from integrated SCR models can be expected in situations where detection probability is low, a large proportion of detections is not attributable to individuals, and the degree of overlap between individual home ranges is low. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Habitat suitability models are useful to understand species distribution and to guide management and conservation strategies. The grey wolf (Canis lupus) has been extirpated from most of its historic range in Pakistan primarily due to its impact on livestock and livelihoods. We used non-invasive survey data from camera traps and genetic sampling to develop a habitat suitability model for C. lupus in northern Pakistan and to explore the extent of connectivity among populations. We detected suitable habitat of grey wolf using a maximum entropy approach (Maxent ver. 3.4.0) and identified suitable movement corridors using the Circuitscape 4.0 tool. Our model showed high levels of predictive performances, as seen from the values of area under curve (0.971±0.002) and true skill statistics (0.886±0.021). The main predictors for habitat suitability for C. lupus were distances to road, mean temperature of the wettest quarter and distance to river. The model predicted ca. 23,129 km2 of suitable areas for wolf in Pakistan, with much of suitable habitat in remote and inaccessible areas that appeared to be well connected through vulnerable movement corridors. These movement corridors suggest that potentially the wolf range can expand in Pakistan’s Northern Areas. However, managing protected areas with stringent restrictions is challenging in northern Pakistan, in part due to heavy dependence of people on natural resources. The habitat suitability map provided by this study can inform future management strategies by helping authorities to identify key conservation areas. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Pakistan's northern expanses have rich diversity of mammalian carnivores, but majority of them are either threatened or endangered due to habitat degradation and conflict with humans. This study was conducted between May and June 2014 with the aim of determining the diversity of mammalian carnivores and their conflict with humans in Musk Deer National Park (MDNP), Azad Jammu and Kashmir (AJK). Forty motion-triggered cameras (Reconyx) were installed in different watersheds of MDNP to determine carnivore species diversity. A human-carnivore conflict study was conducted through semi-structured questionnaires where 149 respondents were randomly selected from 18 villages in the park. A total of nine carnivore species were documented, namely snow leopard ( Panthera uncia), common leopard ( Panthera pardus), leopard cat ( Prionailurus bengalensis), brown bear ( Ursus arctos), Asiatic black bear ( Ursus thibetinus), grey wolf ( Canis lupus), red fox ( Vulpes vulpes), stone marten ( Martes foina), and yellow-throated marten ( Martes flavigula). During the past year, a total of 817 livestock were lost to disease and carnivore predation. Carnivores were held responsible for 276 livestock losses which translated into an annual economic loss of USD 28,145 (USD 189 per household). Both Asiatic black bear and brown bear also damaged maize and potato crops causing economic losses of USD 16,330 (USD 110 per household). Depredation of livestock was greatly affected by four factors: prey type, season of depredation, location of depredation, and livestock guarding practices. Based on the responses, the people of Folwai village showed the most negative perception towards carnivores. Majority of the respondents declared grey wolf, brown bear, and Asiatic black bear to be the most dangerous carnivores in the park. Our results showed that MDNP has rich diversity of carnivores but their survival in the park is in danger due to conflict with humans over excessive livestock depredations and crop raiding. Active livestock guarding practices can reduce carnivore attacks. Educating local people, vaccinating their livestock, and compensating affected families can greatly reduce negative perceptions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Deosai Plateau in Northern Pakistan was designated a national park to protect the largest remnant population of brown bears in Pakistan. The natural resources of this high elevation (3500–5000m) park make a significant contribution to the livelihood of local and nomad communities. The present legislation excludes people from a park, which increases conflicts between management and local people. However, a pragmatic approach was adopted to involve people in conservation in Deosai. Community participation, achieved by recognizing rights and introducing incentives, reduced resistance against the conservation efforts, reduced grazing pressure in bear habitat and helped reduce poaching. The size of the brown bear population was set as an indicator of park success, and was monitored annually from 1993 through 2006. We observed a 5% annual growth of the brown bear population, suggesting that the conservation program has been successful due to a successful cooperation between an NGO, people, and the park management. The increase of the bear population is significant, because we observed an extremely low reproductive rate, due to late age of first reproduction (8.25years), a long reproductive interval (5.7years), and a small litter size (1.33). The reproductive rate of the Deosai population is the lowest yet documented for brown bear populations. Poor habitat quality, low quality food, high seasonality, and extreme weather conditions in the Himalaya probably explain the poor reproductive performance. Considering such low reproduction and known exchange of individuals with neighboring populations, we believe that the observed growth was a sum of reproduction and immigration. Brown bears are declining throughout South Asia and often have low-productive rates. Therefore, conservation efforts for brown bears in this region must target reducing human-caused mortalities, particularly of adult females. Involvement of people can increase efficiency in conservation, in addition to reducing cost and conflicts. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Abstract: Asian bears face major threats due to the impact of human activities as well as a critical lack of knowledge about their status, distribution and needs for survival. Once abundant in northern Pakistan, the Himalayan brown bear (Ursus arctos isabellinus) has been exterminated in most of its former distribution range. It presently occurs sparsely, in small populations, the Deosai National Park supporting the largest isolate. This decline might imply a reduction in genetic diversity, compromising the survival of the population. Using a combination of fecal DNA analysis and field data, our study aimed at assessing the size and genetic status of the Deosai population and give guidelines for its conservation and management. Using fecal genetic analysis, we estimated the population to be 40–50 bears, which compares well with the field census of 38 bears. The northern Pakistani brown bear population may have undergone an approximate 200–300-fold decrease during the last thousand years, probably due to glaciations and the influence of growing human population. However, in spite of the presence of a bottleneck genetic signature, the Deosai population has a moderate level of genetic diversity and is not at immediate risk of inbreeding depression. Gene flow might exist with adjacent populations. We recommend careful monitoring of this population in the future both with field observations and genetic analyses, including sampling of adjacent populations to assess incoming gene flow. The connectivity with adjacent populations in Pakistan and India will be of prime importance for the long-term survival of Deosai bears. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

The ecological requirements of brown bears are poorly known in the Himalaya region, which complicates conservation efforts. We documented the diet of the Himalayan brown bear (Ursus arctos isabellinus) by combining classical scat analysis and a newly developed molecular genetic technique (the trnL approach), in Deosai National Park, Pakistan. Brown bears consumed over 50 plant species, invertebrates, ungulates, and several rodents. Eight plant families; Poaceae, Polygonaceae, Cyperaceae, Apiaceae, Asteraceae, Caryophyllaceae, Lamiaceae, and Rubiaceae were commonly eaten with graminoids comprising the bulk of the diet. Golden marmots comprised the major mammalian biomass in the park, and were also the main meat source for bears. Animal matter, making 36% of dietary content, contributed half of the digestible energy, due to its higher nutritious value. We did not find a significant temporal pattern in diet, perhaps because the availability of the major diet (graminoids) did not change over the foraging period. Male brown bears were more carnivorous than females, probably because of their larger size, which requires higher energy and also makes them more efficient in capturing marmots. Frequencies of three plant species were also significantly higher in male brown bears; Bistorta affinis, Carex diluta, and Carex sp. Diet of the brown bear differed significantly between the park and surrounding valleys. In valleys, diet consisted predominantly of graminoids and crops, whereas the park provided more nutritious and diverse foodThe estimated digestible energy available to brown bears in Deosai was the lowest documented among brown bear populations, due to the lack of fruits and a relatively lower meat content. The low nutritious diet and high cost of metabolism in a high-altitude environment, probably explains the very low reproductive potential of this population. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Asiatic black bear (Ursus thibetanus) is threatened throughout its range and assessed as nationally vulnerable in Pakistan. Habitat degradation and loss, illegal exploitation, and human–bear conflict are key threats to the species, but there is a lack of empirical knowledge regarding its occurrence in Pakistan. In 2012, we conducted a sign survey study to classify Asiatic black bear presence in a little studied and isolated region of the Kashmiri Mountains in Azad, Jammu and Kashmir, northern Pakistan. We compared bear presence in 5 habitat types (agriculture, forest, pasture, plantation, and scrubland) across an elevational range of 910 to 2,990 m. We used hierarchical logistic regression analysis to identify whether elevation, habitat and/or the interaction between the two explained bear presence in the region. Type of bear sign was significantly associated with some habitats, although claw marks were not associated with any habitat type. The strongest positive predictor of bear presence was the interaction between elevation and forest habitat, with greater presence (37.5%) in forest habitat at higher elevations between 1,890 and 2,855 m. The predicted likelihood of bears occurring in agriculture, plantation, and scrubland habitats was always <10%, regardless of elevation, and >30% in forest habitat. Our findings contribute to the national understanding of black bear presence and we provide recommendations for actions that support effective conservation management of the species in Pakistan. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Asiatic black bear (Ursus thibetanus) is globally listed as "Vulnerable." Here, we documented its current distribution and the human-bear conflict in Machiara National Park (MNP, northern Pakistan) from 2009 to 2013. Our observations indicated that this bear occurs in all areas of MNP, especially at elevations between 1,600 and 3,300 m above sea level. We recorded the greatest activity in May and September. Our questionnaire survey indicated that the majority of survey participants were not in favor of coexistence with this bear. The Asiatic black bear urgently needs effective management plans to guarantee its conservation in Pakistan. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Malaria is the fifth leading cause of death worldwide. Pakistan is considered as a moderate malaria-endemic country but still, 177 million individuals are at risk of malaria. Roughly 60% of Pakistan's population, live in malaria-endemic regions. The present study is based upon the survey of various health care centers in 10 major cities of Northern and Southern Punjab to find out the malarial infection patterns in 2015. The diagnosis, seasonal variations, age and gender-wise distribution of Plasmodium spp. circulating in the study area were also included in the objectives., Methods: The malaria-suspected patients '16075' were enrolled for malaria diagnosis using microscopy, out of which 925 were malaria positive which were processed for molecular analysis using nested PCR. The 18S rRNA genes of Plasmodium species were amplified, sequenced, blast and the phylogenetic tree was constructed based on sequences using online integrated tool MEGA7., Results: The 364 cases recruited from Northern Punjab with the highest incidence in Rawalpindi (25.5%) and lowest in Chakwal (15.9%). From Southern Punjab 561 cases were enlisted Rajanpur (21.4%) maximum and lowest from Multan and Rahim Yar Khan (18%). The slide positivity rate, annual parasite incidence, and annual blood examination rates were 5.7 per 1000 population, 0.1, and 0.2% respectively. The only P. vivax (66.7%), P. falciparum (23.7%) and mixed infection by these two species (9.6%) were diagnosed. The same trend (P. vivax > P. falciparum > mixed infection) in species identification %age was confirmed from molecular analysis. However, the occurrence of malaria was higher in Southern Punjab (5.5%) as compared to the Northern Punjab (4.0%). The overall malaria percentage occurrence of treatment-seeking patients in all recruited cities of Punjab was 4.9%. The age-group of 1-20 and males among genders were more affected by malaria. The comparison of different seasons showed that the malaria infection was at a peak in Summer and post-monsoon., Conclusion: The incidence of malaria was high in the flood infected rural areas of Southern Punjab, Summer, and post-monsoon. The age group (1-20) and gender-wise males were more affected by malaria.