51. Prognostischer Wert verschiedener Verlaufsmuster der CD4-Lymphozyten-Zahlen bei 420 symptomfreien HIV-1-Infizierten
- Author
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Bruno Ledergerber, Olsson K, W. Fierz, Ruedi Lüthy, Milos Opravil, M. Vogt, and Günthard Hf
- Subjects
medicine.medical_specialty ,business.industry ,Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) ,Regression analysis ,General Medicine ,medicine.disease_cause ,medicine.disease ,Asymptomatic ,Acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) ,Internal medicine ,Linear regression ,Medicine ,CD4 Lymphocyte ,Stage (cooking) ,medicine.symptom ,Antiviral treatment ,business - Abstract
The pattern of change over time of CD4-lymphocyte counts was investigated prospectively in 420 patients infected with HIV-1 (106 women, 314 men; mean age 34.9 [21-70] years) to assess its value in prognosticating progression to AIDS. Only those CD4-lymphocyte values were taken into account which had been measured in the asymptomatic stage of the HIV infection and before introduction of antiviral treatment. An average of 4.5 (range 3-10) measurements per person were available. Mean observation time was 2.4 years, the mean annual CD4-lymphocyte decrease was 48 cells/microliters. 121 patients (28.8%) had a fall in CD4-lymphocyte count which in the regression analysis significantly differed from zero. In this group there occurred 19 progressions to AIDS (15.7%), in contrast to only 20 (6.6%) in the 299 patients with a nonsignificant CD4 fall (P 900 cells/microliters), there was on average a steeper reduction in CD4-lymphocyte counts than when it was lower. This findings argues against a linear CD4 fall during the total period of observation. The annual CD4 fall, described with linear regression, is a prognostic criterion on its own for early recognition of those patients at a high risk of progression to AIDS while still in the asymptomatic stage of HIV infection.
- Published
- 2008
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