100 results on '"Pietzcker, Robert"'
Search Results
52. A multi-model assessment of the interplay between fossil-extraction bans and demand-side policies in ambitious mitigation scenarios
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Andreoni, Pietro, primary, Reis, Lara Aleluia, additional, Drouet, Laurent, additional, Dessens, Olivier, additional, Fragkos, Panagiotis, additional, Pietzcker, Robert, additional, Pye, Steve, additional, Rodrigues, Renato, additional, and Tavoni, Massimo, additional
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- 2022
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53. ENERGY INVESTMENTS UNDER CLIMATE POLICY: A COMPARISON OF GLOBAL MODELS
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McCOLLUM, DAVID, NAGAI, YU, RIAHI, KEYWAN, MARANGONI, GIACOMO, CALVIN, KATHERINE, PIETZCKER, ROBERT, VAN VLIET, JASPER, and VAN DER ZWAAN, BOB
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- 2013
54. On the climate impacts of blue hydrogen production
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Bauer, Christian, Treyer, Karin, Antonini, Cristina, Bergerson, Joule, Gazzani, Matteo, Gencer, Emre, Gibbins, Jon, Mazzotti, Marco, McCoy, Sean T., McKenna, Russell, Pietzcker, Robert, Ravikumar, Arvind P., Romano, Matteo C., Ueckerdt, Falko, Vente, Jaap, Spek, Mijndert van der, Sustainable Energy Supply Systems, Energy and Resources, Sustainable Energy Supply Systems, and Energy and Resources
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Energy carrier ,Hydrogen ,Sustainability and the Environment ,business.industry ,Renewable Energy, Sustainability and the Environment ,Global warming ,Environmental engineering ,chemistry.chemical_element ,Energy Engineering and Power Technology ,Carbon dioxide removal ,Methane ,chemistry.chemical_compound ,Fuel Technology ,chemistry ,Natural gas ,Greenhouse gas ,Carbon capture and storage ,Environmental science ,Renewable Energy ,business ,Hydrogen production - Abstract
Natural gas based hydrogen production with carbon capture and storage is referred to as blue hydrogen. If substantial amounts of CO2 from natural gas reforming are captured and permanently stored, such hydrogen could be a low-carbon energy carrier. However, recent research raises questions about the effective climate impacts of blue hydrogen from a life cycle perspective. Our analysis sheds light on the relevant issues and provides a balanced perspective on the impacts on climate change associated with blue hydrogen. We show that such impacts may indeed vary over large ranges and depend on only a few key parameters: the methane emission rate of the natural gas supply chain, the CO2 removal rate at the hydrogen production plant, and the global warming metric applied. State-of-the-art reforming with high CO2 capture rates combined with natural gas supply featuring low methane emissions does indeed allow for substantial reduction of greenhouse gas emissions compared to both conventional natural gas reforming and direct combustion of natural gas. Under such conditions, blue hydrogen is compatible with low-carbon economies and exhibits climate change impacts at the upper end of the range of those caused by hydrogen production from renewable-based electricity. However, neither current blue nor green hydrogen production pathways render fully "net-zero" hydrogen without additional CO2 removal., Sustainable Energy & Fuels, 6 (1), ISSN:2398-4902
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- 2022
55. Deutschland auf dem Weg aus der Gaskrise
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Luderer, Gunnar, Bartels, Frederike, Blesl, Markus, Burkhardt, Alexander, Edenhofer, Ottmar, Fahl, Ulrich, Gillich, Annika, Herbst, Andrea, Hufendiek, Kai, Kaiser, Markus, Kittel, Lena, Koller, Florian, Kost, Christoph, Pietzcker, Robert Carl, Rehfeld, Matthias, Schreyer, Felix, Seibert, Dennis, and Sievers, Luisa
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Erdgas ,Verkehrswende ,Energiesicherheit ,Klimaziele ,Energiewende ,Energiepreis ,Maßnahmen ,Energiekrise ,Energiesektor ,Gaspreise ,Deutschland ,Klimaneutralität - Abstract
Dieses Kurzdossier analysiert die Auswirkungen der Energiekrise auf die Transformation des deutschen Energiesystems zur Klimaneutralität 2045 sowie Strategien zur Beseitigung der Abhängigkeit Deutschlands von russischen Erdgasimporten.
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- 2022
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56. Asia's role in mitigating climate change: A technology and sector specific analysis with ReMIND-R
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Luderer, Gunnar, Pietzcker, Robert C., Kriegler, Elmar, Haller, Markus, and Bauer, Nico
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- 2012
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57. Impact of declining renewable energy costs on electrification in low-emission scenarios
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Luderer, Gunnar, primary, Madeddu, Silvia, additional, Merfort, Leon, additional, Ueckerdt, Falko, additional, Pehl, Michaja, additional, Pietzcker, Robert, additional, Rottoli, Marianna, additional, Schreyer, Felix, additional, Bauer, Nico, additional, Baumstark, Lavinia, additional, Bertram, Christoph, additional, Dirnaichner, Alois, additional, Humpenöder, Florian, additional, Levesque, Antoine, additional, Popp, Alexander, additional, Rodrigues, Renato, additional, Strefler, Jessica, additional, and Kriegler, Elmar, additional
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- 2021
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58. Fossil-extraction bans are not enough to achieve the Paris agreement but can facilitate it
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Andreoni, Pietro, primary, Reis, Lara Aleluia, additional, Drouet, Laurent, additional, Dessens, Olivier, additional, Fragkos, Panagiotis, additional, Pietzcker, Robert, additional, Pye, Steve, additional, Rodrigues, Renato, additional, and Tavoni, Massimo, additional
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- 2021
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59. REMIND2.1: transformation and innovation dynamics of the energy-economic system within climate and sustainability limits
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Baumstark, Lavinia, primary, Bauer, Nico, additional, Benke, Falk, additional, Bertram, Christoph, additional, Bi, Stephen, additional, Gong, Chen Chris, additional, Dietrich, Jan Philipp, additional, Dirnaichner, Alois, additional, Giannousakis, Anastasis, additional, Hilaire, Jérôme, additional, Klein, David, additional, Koch, Johannes, additional, Leimbach, Marian, additional, Levesque, Antoine, additional, Madeddu, Silvia, additional, Malik, Aman, additional, Merfort, Anne, additional, Merfort, Leon, additional, Odenweller, Adrian, additional, Pehl, Michaja, additional, Pietzcker, Robert C., additional, Piontek, Franziska, additional, Rauner, Sebastian, additional, Rodrigues, Renato, additional, Rottoli, Marianna, additional, Schreyer, Felix, additional, Schultes, Anselm, additional, Soergel, Bjoern, additional, Soergel, Dominika, additional, Strefler, Jessica, additional, Ueckerdt, Falko, additional, Kriegler, Elmar, additional, and Luderer, Gunnar, additional
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- 2021
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60. The role of renewable energy in climate stabilization: results from the EMF27 scenarios
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Luderer, Gunnar, Krey, Volker, Calvin, Katherine, Merrick, James, Mima, Silvana, Pietzcker, Robert, Van Vliet, Jasper, and Wada, Kenichi
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- 2014
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61. Tightening EU ETS targets in line with the European Green Deal: Impacts on the decarbonization of the EU power sector
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Pietzcker, Robert, Osorio, Sebastian, and Rodrigues, Renato
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Q40 ,Electricity Decarbonization ,Q41 ,Q54 ,carbon capture and storage (CCS) ,L52 ,Q48 ,Storage ,power sector ,Wind ,solar ,Q58 ,EU Emission Trading System (EU ETS) ,Transmission grid expansion ,hydrogen turbine ,Carbon price ,ddc:330 ,Electricity Price ,European Green Deal ,Nuclear ,Renewable Energy ,Climate Change Mitigation - Abstract
The EU Green Deal calls for climate neutrality by 2050 and emission reductions of 50-55% in 2030 in comparison to 1990. Achieving these reductions requires a substantial tightening of the regulations of the EU emissions trading system (EU ETS). This paper explores how the power sector would have to change in reaction to a tighter EU ETS target, and analyses the technological and economic implications. To cover the major ETS sectors, we combine a detailed power sector model with a marginal-abatement cost curve representation of industry emission abatement. We find that tightening the target would speed up the transformation by 3-17 years for different parts of the electricity system, with renewables contributing 74% of the electricity in 2030, EU-wide coal use almost completely phased-out by 2030 instead of 2045, and zero electricity generation emissions reached by 2040. Carbon prices within the EU ETS would more than triple to 129€/tCO2 in 2030, reducing cumulated power sector emissions from 2017-2057 by 54% compared to a scenario with the current target. This transformation would come at limited costs: total discounted power system costs would only increase by 5%. We test our findings against a number of sensitivities: an increased electricity demand, which might arise from sector coupling, increases deployment of wind and solar and prolongs gas usage. Not allowing transmission expansion beyond 2020 levels shifts investments from wind to PV, hydrogen and batteries, and increases total system costs by 3%. Finally, the unavailability of fossil carbon capture and storage (CCS) or further nuclear investments does not impact results. Unavailability of bioenergy-based CCS (BECCS) has a visible impact (18% increase) on cumulated power sector emissions, thus shifting more of the mitigation burden to the industry sector, but does not increase electricity prices or total system costs (
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- 2021
62. Notwendige CO2-Preise zum Erreichen des europ��ischen Klimaziels 2030
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Pietzcker, Robert, Feuerhahn, Janik, Haywood, Luke, Knopf, Brigitte, Leukhardt, Falko, Luderer, Gunnar, Osorio, Sebastian, Pahle, Michael, Dias Bleasby Rodrigues, Renato, and Edenhofer, Ottmar
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Policy advice ,Energy ,Decarbonization ,Carbon Pricing ,Climate Policy - Abstract
Die Kommission hat ihr ���Fit For 55��� Paket vorgelegt, welches das 55%-Reduktionsziel f��r 2030 wie folgt auf die Sektoren aufteilt: Die Sektoren im bestehenden EU-Emissionshandelssystem (ETS), also haupts��chlich Strom und Industrie, sollen ihre Emissionen um 61% gegen��ber 2005 mindern. Alle anderen Sektoren fallen unter die Effort Sharing Regulation (ESR) und sollen ihre Emissionen um 40% gegen��ber 2005 mindern. In diesem Papier analysieren wir die notwendigen CO2-Preise zur Zielerreichung unter der Annahme, dass eine Bepreisung von CO2 das einzige Instrument der Emissionsminderung ist. Werden weitere Politikinstrumente eingesetzt, zum Beispiel Technologiestandards, dann k��nnen zwar die CO2-Preise abgesenkt und die Verteilung der Vermeidungskosten auf Haushalte und Unternehmen ver��ndert werden; jedoch kann das Niveau der gesamtwirtschaftlichen Vermeidungskosten nur dann vermindert werden, wenn die zus��tzlichen Politikinstrumente bestehende Marktversagen verringern und dabei nicht mehr neue Ineffizienzen schaffen. Die notwendigen CO2-Preise im Jahre 2030 erreichen dabei 275 EUR/t in den ESR-Sektoren (Bandbreite: 210-405 EUR/t). Diese Preise sind mehr als doppelt so hoch wie die f��r das ETS-Ziel notwendigen CO2-Preise (130 EUR/t, Bandbreite 95-210 EUR/t). Allerdings wird die H��he der notwendigen CO2-Preise ma��geblich davon beeinflusst, a) wie die Emissionsminderungen zwischen ETS und ESR aufgeteilt werden, b) wie schnell der Markthochlauf emissionsfreier Technologien ��� insbesondere der Elektromobilit��t ��� realisiert wird und wie schnell Wind- und Solarstrom ausgebaut, sowie die notwendigen Flexibilit��ten im Stromsystem durch Netzausbau, Speicher und Lastmanagement bereitgestellt werden k��nnen. F��r den Fall, dass der ETS 50% der zus��tzlichen Minderungen des ESR ��bernimmt, gleichen sich beide Preise stark an: 190 EUR/t im ETS und 195 EUR/t in der ESR. F��r die Politikinstrumente ergeben sich zwei Schlussfolgerungen: Ein h��herer Vermeidungsbeitrag der ETS-Sektoren k��nnte die CO2-Preise angleichen, und somit das 2030-Ziel kosteng��nstiger erreichen. Allerdings k��nnte eine solche Aufteilung auch zu sehr hohen ESR-CO2-Preisen zu einem sp��teren Zeitpunkt f��hren, falls kurzfristig niedrigere CO2-Preise in den ESR-Sektoren den Markthochlauf emissionsfreier Technologien ausbremsen. Dies wird aber nur dann der Fall sein, wenn der langfristige Pfad der CO2-Preise von den Investoren als nicht glaubw��rdig wahrgenommen wird. Die Kostenersparnisse h��ngen sowohl von den Erwartungen der Investoren als auch davon ab, welche zus��tzlichen Ma��nahmen noch auf europ��ischer und nationaler Ebene implementiert werden, die die Glaubw��rdigkeit der langfristigen Zielerreichung st��rken. Die gro��e Bandbreite der notwendigen CO2-Preise je nach Annahmen zum Markthochlauf zeigt die Bedeutung von komplement��rem Infrastrukturausbau und Technologiepolitik. So k��nnten beispielsweise der Ausbau der Ladeinfrastruktur und Investitionsanreize den Markthochlauf emissionsfreier Technologien f��rdern. Solche Ma��nahmen ��� wie sie auch im Fit-for-55 Paket der EU Kommision vorgesehen sind ��� k��nnen bestehende Marktversagen korrigieren und so den notwendigen CO2-Preis senken sowie die Sicherheit der Klimazielerreichung erh��hen. Allerdings gehen diese Ma��nahmen oftmals mit versteckten Kosten einher, und ein sozialer Ausgleich ist zudem schwerer m��glich, da keine Einnahmen aus der CO2-Bepreisung zur Verf��gung stehen.
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- 2021
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63. Deep decarbonisation of buildings energy services through demand and supply transformations in a 1.5°C scenario
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Levesque, Antoine, primary, Pietzcker, Robert C, additional, Baumstark, Lavinia, additional, and Luderer, Gunnar, additional
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- 2021
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64. Technological learning for resource efficient terawatt scale photovoltaics
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Goldschmidt, Jan Christoph, primary, Wagner, Lukas, additional, Pietzcker, Robert, additional, and Friedrich, Lorenz, additional
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- 2021
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65. Reviewing the Market Stability Reserve in light of more ambitious EU ETS emission targets
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Osorio, Sebastian, Tietjen, Oliver, Pahle, Michael, Pietzcker, Robert, and Edenhofer, Ottmar
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EU ETS Phase IV ,Market Stability Reserve (MSR) ,ddc:330 ,EU ETS reform ,L94 ,EU climate policy ,linear reduction factor (LRF) ,Q58 - Abstract
The stringency of the EU’s Emission Trading System (ETS) is bound to be ratcheted-up to deliver on more ambitious goals as put forth in the EU’s Green Deal. Tightening the cap needs to consider the interactions with the Market Stability Reserve (MSR), which will be reviewed in 2021. Against that background, we employ the detailed model LIMES-EU to analyse options for the upcoming reforms. First, we examine how revising MSR parameters impacts allowance cancellations through the MSR. We find that under current regulation, the MSR cancels 5.1 Gt of allowances. Varying MSR parameters leads to cancellations in the range of 2.6 and 7.9 Gt, with the intake/outtake thresholds having the highest impact. Intake rates above 12% only have a limited effect but cause oscillatory intake behaviour. Second, we analyse how the 2030 targets can be achieved by adjusting the linear reduction factor (LRF). We find that the LRF increases MSR cancellations substantially (up to 10.0 Gt). This implies that increasing the LRF from currently 2.2% to 2.6% could already be consistent with the 55% EU-wide emission reduction target in 2030. However, we highlight that the number of MSR cancellations is subject to large uncertainty. Overall, the MSR increases the complexity of the market. In face of that, we suggest to develop the MSR into a Price Stability Reserve.
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- 2020
66. Common but differentiated leadership: strategies and challenges for carbon neutrality by 2050 across industrialized economies
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Schreyer, Felix, primary, Luderer, Gunnar, additional, Rodrigues, Renato, additional, Pietzcker, Robert C, additional, Baumstark, Lavinia, additional, Sugiyama, Masahiro, additional, Brecha, Robert J, additional, and Ueckerdt, Falko, additional
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- 2020
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67. Managing Power Demand from Air Conditioning Benefits Solar PV in India Scenarios for 2040
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Ershad, Ahmad Murtaza, primary, Pietzcker, Robert, additional, Ueckerdt, Falko, additional, and Luderer, Gunnar, additional
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- 2020
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68. Das Kopernikus-Projekt ENavi : die Transformation des Stromsystems mit Fokus Kohleausstieg
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Fahl, Ulrich, Gaschnig, Hannes, Hofer, Claudia, Hufendiek, Kai, Maier, Beatrix, Pahle, Michael, Pietzcker, Robert, Quitzow, Rainer, Rauner, Sebastian, Sehn, Vera, Thier, Pablo, Wiesmeth, Michael, Hufendiek, Kai, and Pahle, Michael
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333.7 - Abstract
In diesem Bericht wird die Transformation des Stromsystems als zentrale Stellschraube zur Erreichung der Klimaziele analysiert. Dabei wird die Dekarbonisierung, insbesondere der Ausstieg aus der Kohleverstromung, in den Fokus gerückt. Anhand einer systematischen Vorgehensweise werden Transformationsszenarien für das deutsche Energiesystem identifiziert, analysiert und bewertet. Die Analyse erfolgt mithilfe unterschiedlicher computergestützter Modelle, um die Auswirkungen im gesamten System abschätzen zu können. Es werden sowohl Wechselwirkungen im Stromsystem und im Energiesystem, als auch im Wirtschaftssystem und im Bereich Ressourcen und Umwelt untersucht.
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- 2019
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69. Environmental co-benefits and adverse side-effects of alternative power sector decarbonization strategies
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Pehl, Michaja, Arvesen, Anders, Gibon, Thomas, Bodirsky, Benjamin L., de Boer, Harmen Sytze, Fricko, Oliver, Hejazi, Mohamad, Humpenoeder, Florian, Iyer, Gokul, Mina, silvana, Mouratiadou, Ioanna, Pietzcker, Robert C., Popp, Alexander, van den Berg, Maarten, van Vuuren, Detlef, Hertwich, Edgar G., and Luderer, Gunnar
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life-cycle assessment ,climate-change mitigation ,land-use ,integrated assessment ,impact assessment ,water demand ,transformation pathways ,electricity-generation ,severe accidents ,air-pollution - Abstract
A rapid and deep decarbonization of power supply worldwide is required to limit global warming to well below 2 degrees C. Beyond greenhouse gas emissions, the power sector is also responsible for numerous other environmental impacts. Here we combine scenarios from integrated assessment models with a forward-looking life-cycle assessment to explore how alternative technology choices in power sector decarbonization pathways compare in terms of non-climate environmental impacts at the system level. While all decarbonization pathways yield major environmental co-benefits, we find that the scale of co-benefits as well as profiles of adverse side-effects depend strongly on technology choice. Mitigation scenarios focusing on wind and solar power are more effective in reducing human health impacts compared to those with low renewable energy, while inducing a more pronounced shift away from fossil and toward mineral resource depletion. Conversely, non-climate ecosystem damages are highly uncertain but tend to increase, chiefly due to land requirements for bioenergy.
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- 2019
70. Exploring pathways of solar PV learning-by-doing in Integrated Assessment Models
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Carrara, Samuel, Bevione, Michela, de Boer, Harmen Sytze, Gernaat, David, Mima, Silvana, Pietzcker, Robert C., Tavoni, Massimo, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei [Milano] (FEEM), Sustainability transition, environment, economy and local policy (STEEP), Inria Grenoble - Rhône-Alpes, Institut National de Recherche en Informatique et en Automatique (Inria)-Institut National de Recherche en Informatique et en Automatique (Inria)-Laboratoire Jean Kuntzmann (LJK), Université Pierre Mendès France - Grenoble 2 (UPMF)-Université Joseph Fourier - Grenoble 1 (UJF)-Institut Polytechnique de Grenoble - Grenoble Institute of Technology-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Grenoble Alpes (UGA)-Université Pierre Mendès France - Grenoble 2 (UPMF)-Université Joseph Fourier - Grenoble 1 (UJF)-Institut Polytechnique de Grenoble - Grenoble Institute of Technology-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Grenoble Alpes (UGA), PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, Laboratoire d'Economie Appliquée de Grenoble (GAEL), Institut polytechnique de Grenoble - Grenoble Institute of Technology (Grenoble INP)-Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Grenoble Alpes (UGA), Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Politecnico di Milano [Milan] (POLIMI), Associazione Italia Economisti dell' Energia, Sustainability transition, environment, economy and local policy (STEEP ), Institut National de Recherche en Informatique et en Automatique (Inria)-Institut National de Recherche en Informatique et en Automatique (Inria)-Laboratoire Jean Kuntzmann (LJK ), Institut polytechnique de Grenoble - Grenoble Institute of Technology (Grenoble INP )-Institut National de Recherche en Informatique et en Automatique (Inria)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Grenoble Alpes [2016-2019] (UGA [2016-2019])-Institut polytechnique de Grenoble - Grenoble Institute of Technology (Grenoble INP )-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Grenoble Alpes [2016-2019] (UGA [2016-2019]), and Institut polytechnique de Grenoble - Grenoble Institute of Technology (Grenoble INP )-Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Grenoble Alpes [2016-2019] (UGA [2016-2019])
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[SHS.ECO]Humanities and Social Sciences/Economics and Finance ,ComputingMilieux_MISCELLANEOUS - Abstract
International audience
- Published
- 2018
71. How to deal with the risks of phasing out coal in Germany through national carbon pricing
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Osorio, Sebastian, Pietzcker, Robert C., Pahle, Michael, and Edenhofer, Ottmar
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carbon price floor ,carbon price ,policy interaction ,coal phase-out ,ddc:330 ,EU-ETS ,interaction ,L94 ,waterbed effect ,EU ETS ,Q58 - Abstract
Germany has an ambitious climate target for 2030 that cannot be achieved without reducing the high share of coal in power generation. In the face of this, the country has set up a commission to phase out coal. A UK-style carbon price floor is one of the options being considered. Yet implementing such a policy comes with important risks related to the following two aspects: (1) the price level necessary to reduce emissions to reach the 2030 climate target; and (2) the waterbed effect that arises from such a policy under the EU Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) cap. In this paper, we quantify these risks using the numerical electricity market model LIMES-EU, and consider their implications as well as different options for dealing with them. Our results show that under baseline assumptions a carbon price floor of around 33 €/tCO2 would be sufficient to reach the 2030 target. Under unfavourable conditions, an appropriate price floor may be nearly twice as high (57 €/tCO2). The waterbed effect and related risks for the EU ETS could be reduced substantially in the mid-term (2030) through the recently introduced cancellation of allowances through the Market Stability Reserve (MSR), or through a larger coalition of countries. Germany could even fully alleviate the waterbed effect by cancelling 1.1 GtCO2 of certificates. In the long-term (until 2050), emission reductions leading up to 2030 would be almost completely (91%) offset at the EU level. Accordingly, it is essential that the national price initiates a policy sequence that leads to the EU level.
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- 2018
72. Interdisziplinärer Synthesebericht zum Kohleausstieg: ENavi informiert die Kohlekommission
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Pahle, Michael, primary, Zabel, Claudia, additional, Edenhofer, Ottmar, additional, Fahl, Ulrich, additional, Fischedick, Manfred, additional, Hufendiek, Kai, additional, Knodt, Michèle, additional, Löschel, Andreas, additional, Luderer, Gunnar, additional, Ober, Steffi, additional, Pietzcker, Robert, additional, Renn, Ortwin, additional, Schlacke, Sabine, additional, and Sensfuß, Frank, additional
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- 2019
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73. Exploring pathways of solar PV learning in Integrated Assessment Models
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Carrara, Samuel, bevione, M., de Boer, Harmen-Sytze, Gernaat, D., Mima, Silvana, Pietzcker, Robert, Tavoni, M., Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM), Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei, Laboratoire d'Economie Appliquée de Grenoble (GAEL), Institut polytechnique de Grenoble - Grenoble Institute of Technology (Grenoble INP)-Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Grenoble Alpes (UGA), Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), International Association for Energy Economists, Revel, Danièle, Institut polytechnique de Grenoble - Grenoble Institute of Technology (Grenoble INP )-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA)-Université Grenoble Alpes [2016-2019] (UGA [2016-2019]), and Institut polytechnique de Grenoble - Grenoble Institute of Technology (Grenoble INP )-Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Grenoble Alpes [2016-2019] (UGA [2016-2019])
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Solar photovoltaics ,Integrated Assessment Model ,[SHS.ECO] Humanities and Social Sciences/Economics and Finance ,[SHS.ECO]Humanities and Social Sciences/Economics and Finance - Abstract
International audience; The importance of solar PV as a power technology has rapidly grown in the last years and now it is indisputable that it will play a major role in the future energy scenario. One of the most important factors influencing PV penetration in the electricity mix is its investment cost. This cost decreased quite regularly in the past and this trend is expected to continue in the next decades.However, substantial uncertainty still remains on the actual future cost evolution and on the consequent impacts on PV diffusion. Basing on this consideration, a modeling scenario exercise has been set up which aims at exploring the impacts of the different cost patterns on PV penetration in the electricity mix and on other relevant variables. The objective of the exercise is twofold:- From a policy-relevancy perspective, explore different scenarios related to the possible future cost patterns of the solar PV technology;-From a modeling perspective, assess the responsiveness of models to changes in the cost data input.This extended abstract briefly describes the exercise and some illustrative results from the preliminary set of runs.
- Published
- 2017
74. Über die Erreichbarkeit ambitionierter Klimaschutzziele:eine Analyse des Beitrags des Verkehrssektors und von variablen erneuerbaren Energien mit Hilfe von Energie-Wirtschafts-Klima-Modellen
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Pietzcker, Robert Carl, Luderer, Gunnar, Technische Universität Berlin, Fakultät VI - Planen Bauen Umwelt, Edenhofer, Ottmar, Hirschhausen, Christian von, and Pietzcker, Robert
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ddc:333 - Abstract
Der anthropogene Klimawandel gefährdet das Wohlergehen der Menschheit. Aus diesem Grund haben Politiker wiederholt das Ziel formuliert, die Erhöhung der mittleren globalen Temperatur auf weniger als 2◦C über dem vorindustriellen Wert zu begrenzen. Dazu müssen die globalen Treibhausgasemissionen nahezu vollständig vermieden werden. Da das heutige globale System zur Energienutzung auf fossilen Rohstoffen beruht, erfordert die Reduktion von Treibhausgasemissionen eine fundamentale Umgestaltung unseres Energiesystems. Diese Arbeit erforscht die ökonomischen Anforderungen und Folgen von ambitionierten Klimaschutzzielen. Sie beginnt mit einer allgemeinen Analyse der charakteristischen Dekarbonisierungsmuster des globalen Energiesystems. Diese identifiziert zwei besonders relevante Aspekte von Klimaschutzszenarien: die Nutzung von variablen erneuerbaren Energien (VRE) für Emissionsminderungen im Stromsektor, sowie die Schwierigkeit der Dekarbonisierung des Verkehrssektors. Eine vertiefende Analyse der beiden Solartechnologien Photovoltaik (PV) und solarthermische Kraftwerke (CSP) mit dem IAM REMIND bestätigt die fundamentale Rolle dieser VRE für den Stromsektor. Aufgrund der in der letzten Dekade erreichten Kostensenkung ist PV mittlerweile in Regionen mit hohem mittäglichem Strombedarf und starker Sonneneinstrahlung konkurrenzfähig zu anderen Kraftwerksneubauten. Die Abbildung der Systemintegrationskosten in REMIND hat einen deutlichen Einfluss auf den Wettbewerb zwischen PV und CSP: CSP mit thermischem Speicher und Wasserstoff-Co-Feuerung kann gesicherte Leistung bereitstellen und hat deshalb niedrigere Integrationskosten als PV, wodurch CSP bei hohen Anteilen an VRE konkurrenzfähig wird. Eine modellübergreifende Studie zum Verkehrssektor bestätigt, dass dieser nur schwach auf CO2-Preise unter 100€/t CO2 Höhe reagiert: Bis 2050 hinken relative Emissionsreduktionen im Verkehrssektor 10–30 Jahre hinter denen in anderen Sektoren her, und Flüssigtreibstoffe bleiben Hauptenergieträger. Auf längere Sicht bis 2100 stellt der Verkehrssektor jedoch kein unüberwindbares Hindernis für ambitionierte Klimaschutzziele dar: Bei höheren CO2-Preisen zeigen die Modelle deutliche Reduktionen der Verkehrsemissionen, entweder mittels Wasserstoff-Brennstoffzellen bzw. batteriebetriebene Elektromobile oder mittels Biotreibstoffen der zweiten Generation (möglicherweise mit CCS). Die abschließende Studie beschäftigt sich mit dem Zusammenhang zwischen der Strenge eines Klimaschutzziels und den damit verbundenen technischen und ökonomischen Anforderungen und Folgen. Unsere Ergebnisse zeigen, dass die Umgestaltung des globalen Energiesystems, die zur Einhaltung des 2◦C-Zieles mit einer Zweidrittel-Wahrscheinlichkeit notwendig ist, zu moderaten ökonomischen Kosten erreichbar ist. Dieses Resultat ist abhängig von der zeitnahen Umsetzung umfassender globaler Emisssionsminderungsmaßnahmen sowie der Verfügbarkeit verschiedener Technologien, die die Marktreife noch nicht gänzlich erreicht haben. Verzögert man die Einführung starker Klimaschutzpolitik, so erhöhen sich die Kosten substantiell, was das Erreichen ambitionierter Klimaschutzziele gefährdet. In dieser Arbeit wurde eine umfassende Analyse ambitionierter Klimaschutzszenarien und ihrer ökonomischen Anforderungen und Folgen durchgeführt, wobei ein besonderer Fokus auf der Nutzung erneuerbarer Energien einerseits und Emissionsreduktionen im Verkehr andererseits lag. Auf Basis umfangreicher eigener Modellrechnungen und globaler Modellvergleiche liefert die Arbeit entscheidende Erkenntnisse und Strategien für das Erreichen ambitionierter Klimaschutzziele. Anthropogenic climate change is threatening the welfare of mankind. Accordingly, policy makers have repeatedly stated the goal of slowing climate change and limiting the increase of global mean temperature to less than 2 °C above pre-industrial times (the so-called “two degree target”). Stabilizing the temperature requires drastic reductions of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions to nearly zero. As the global system of energy supply currently relies on fossil fuels, reducing GHG emissions can only be achieved through a full-scale transformation of the energy system. This thesis investigates the economic requirements and implications of different scenarios that achieve stringent climate mitigation targets. It starts with the analysis of characteristic decarbonization patterns and identifies two particularly relevant aspects of mitigation scenarios: deployment of variable renewable energies (VRE) and decarbonization of the transport sector. After investigating these fields in detail, we turned towards one of the most relevant questions for policy makers and analyzed the trade-off between the stringency of a climate target and its economic requirements and implications. All analyses are based on the improvement, application, comparison, and discussion of large-scale IAMs. The novel “mitigation share” metric allowed us to identify the relevance of specific technology groups for mitigation and to improve our understanding of the decarbonization patterns of different energy subsectors. It turned out that the power sector is decarbonized first and reaches lowest emissions, while the transport sector is slowest to decarbonize. For the power sector, non-biomass renewable energies contribute most to emission reductions, while the transport sector strongly relies on liquid fuels and therefore requires biomass in combination with carbon capture and sequestration (CCS) to reduce emissions. An in-depth investigation of the solar power technologies photovoltaics (PV) and concentrating solar power (CSP) in REMIND confirms the dominant role of these variable renewable energies for the decarbonization of the power sector. Recent cost reductions have brought PV to cost-competitiveness in regions with high midday electricity demand and high solar irradiance. The representation of system integration costs in REMIND is found to have significant impact on the competition between PV and CSP in the model: the low integration requirements of CSP equipped with thermal storage and hydrogen co-firing make CSP competitive at high shares of variable renewable energies, which leads to substantial deployment of both PV and CSP in low stabilization scenarios. A cross-model study of transport sector decarbonization confirms the earlier finding that the transport sector is not very reactive to intermediate carbon price levels: Until 2050, transport decarbonization lags 10-30 years behind the decarbonization of other sectors, and liquid fuels dominate the transport sector. In the long term, however, transportation does not seem to be an insurmountable barrier to stringent climate targets: As the price signals on CO2 increase further, transport emissions can be reduced substantially - if either hydrogen fuel cells or electromobility open a route to low-carbon energy carriers, or second generation biofuels (possibly in combination with CCS) allow the use of liquid-based transport modes with low emissions. The last study takes up the fundamental question of this thesis and analyses the trade-off between the stringency of a climate target and the resulting techno-economic requirements and costs. We find that transforming the global energy-economy system to keep a two-thirds likelihood of limiting global warming to below 2 °C is achievable at moderate economic implications. This result is contingent on the near-term implementation of stringent global climate policies and full availability of several technologies that are still in the demonstration phase. Delaying stringent policies and extending the current period of fragmented and weak action will substantially increase mitigation costs, such that stringent climate targets might be pushed out of reach. Should the current weak climate policies be extended until 2030, the transitional mitigation costs for keeping the 2 °C target would increase three-fold compared to a world in which global cooperative action is decided on in 2015 and where first deep emission reductions are achieved in 2020. In case of technology limitations, the urgency of reaching a global climate agreement is even higher. In this thesis, we performed a comprehensive analysis of stringent mitigation scenarios and their economic implications, with a special focus on VRE deployment and transport decarbonization. Based on extensive modeling work and global cross-model analyses, this thesis provides crucial insights and identifies strategies for achieving stringent mitigation targets.
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- 2015
75. Optimal international technology cooperation for the low-carbon transformation
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Schultes, Anselm, primary, Leimbach, Marian, additional, Luderer, Gunnar, additional, Pietzcker, Robert C., additional, Baumstark, Lavinia, additional, Bauer, Nico, additional, Kriegler, Elmar, additional, and Edenhofer, Ottmar, additional
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- 2018
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76. How to Deal with the Risks of Phasing Out Coal in Germany Through National Carbon Pricing
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Osorio, Sebastian, primary, Pietzcker, Robert, additional, Pahle, Michael, additional, and Edenhofer, Ottmar, additional
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- 2018
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77. Triggering decarbonisation in the industry: Analysing the sectoral interactions within the EU ETS and the role of the MSR.
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Osorio, Sebastian, Pahle, Michael, and Pietzcker, Robert
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ELECTRICITY ,ELECTRIFICATION ,SENSITIVITY analysis ,CLIMATE change - Published
- 2019
78. Deep decarbonisation towards 1.5°C-2°C stabilisation
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Luderer, Gunnar, Kriegler, Elmar, Delsa, Laura, Edelenbosch, O. Y., Emmerling, Johannes, Krey, Volker, McCollum, David, Pachauri, Shonali, Riahi, Keywan, Saveyn, Bert, Tavoni, M., Vrontisi, Zoi, Vuuren, Detlef P., Arent, Douglas, Arvesen, Anders, Fujimori, Shinichiro, Iyer, Gokul, Keppo, Ilkka, Kermeli, Katerina, Mima, Silvana, Ó BROIN, Eoin, Pietzcker, Robert, Sano, Fuminori, Scholz, Yvonne, Van Ruijven, B., Wilson, Charlie, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis [Laxenburg] (IIASA), National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES), UCL Energy Institute, University College of London [London] (UCL), Laboratoire d'Economie Appliquée de Grenoble (GAEL), Institut polytechnique de Grenoble - Grenoble Institute of Technology (Grenoble INP )-Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Grenoble Alpes [2016-2019] (UGA [2016-2019]), Chalmers University of Technology [Göteborg], centre international de recherche sur l'environnement et le développement (CIRED), Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement (Cirad)-École des hautes études en sciences sociales (EHESS)-AgroParisTech-École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), DLR Institut für Technische Thermodynamik / Institute of Engineering Thermodynamics (ITT), Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt [Stuttgart] (DLR), European Union - Advance Consortium, European Project: Advance, Institut polytechnique de Grenoble - Grenoble Institute of Technology (Grenoble INP )-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA)-Université Grenoble Alpes [2016-2019] (UGA [2016-2019]), Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC)-École des hautes études en sciences sociales (EHESS)-AgroParisTech-Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement (Cirad), Institut polytechnique de Grenoble - Grenoble Institute of Technology (Grenoble INP)-Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Grenoble Alpes (UGA), Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement (CIRED), and Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC)-Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement (Cirad)-École des hautes études en sciences sociales (EHESS)-AgroParisTech
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Integrated Assessment Model ,Decarbonisation ,[SHS.ECO]Humanities and Social Sciences/Economics and Finance - Abstract
The Paris Agreement reinforced the objective of keeping global temperature rise well below 2°C, and of pursuing efforts to limit the temperature increase even further to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. Such low stabilization requires swift action and an almost full-scale decarbonization of energy systems worldwide. Over the past four years ADVANCE has improved Integrated Assessment Models (IAM) to better quantify the requirements for climate stabilization and the implications of international climate agreements, including the implications of the Paris Climate Agreement.
- Published
- 2016
79. High-detail energy system modelling to support VRE technology representation in IAMs
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Gils, Hans Christian, Scholz, Yvonne, and Pietzcker, Robert Carl
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Systemanalyse und Technikbewertung ,Energy System Modelling ,Power System Integration ,Integrated Assessment Modelling ,Variable Renewable Energy - Abstract
In order to model variable renewable energy (VRE) integration into the power system, Integrated Assessment Models (IAM) need aggregated information on VRE availability and balancing requirements. We present exemplary applications of the high resolution energy system model REMix designed to support the representation of VRE technologies and integration costs in IAMs.
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- 2015
80. The underestimated potential of solar energy to mitigate climate change
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Creutzig, Felix, primary, Agoston, Peter, additional, Goldschmidt, Jan Christoph, additional, Luderer, Gunnar, additional, Nemet, Gregory, additional, and Pietzcker, Robert C., additional
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- 2017
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81. System Integration of Wind and Solar Power in Integrated Assessment Models: A Cross-Model Evaluation of New Approaches
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Pietzcker, Robert, primary, Carrara, Samuel, additional, Fujimori, Shinichiro, additional, Johnson, Nils, additional, Kitous, Alban, additional, Scholz, Yvonne, additional, and Sullivan, Patrick, additional
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- 2017
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82. Erratum: Corrigendum: Energy system transformations for limiting end-of-century warming to below 1.5 °C
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Rogelj, Joeri, primary, Luderer, Gunnar, additional, Pietzcker, Robert C., additional, Kriegler, Elmar, additional, Schaeffer, Michiel, additional, Krey, Volker, additional, and Riahi, Keywan, additional
- Published
- 2016
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83. Long-term transport energy demand and climate policy: Alternative visions on transport decarbonization in energy economy models
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Pietzcker, Robert, Longden, Thomas, Chen, Wenying, Fu, Sha, Kriegler, Elmar, Kyle, Page, and Luderer, Gunnar
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Carbon Emission Mitigation ,Advanced Light Duty Vehicles ,R41 ,Demand Reduction ,Q54 ,Energy-Economy Modeling ,ddc:330 ,Integrated Assessment ,R48 ,Transportation Scenarios - Abstract
Transportation accounts for a substantial share of CO2 emissions, and decarbonizing transport will be necessary to limit global warming to below 2êC. Due to persistent reliance on fossil fuels, it is posited that transport is more difficult to decarbonize than other sectors. We test this hypothesis by comparing long-term transport energy demand and emission projections for China, USA and the World from five large-scale energy-economy models with respect to three climate policies. We systematically analyze mitigation levers along the chain of causality from mobility to emissions, and discuss structural differences between mitigation in transport and non-transport sectors. We can confirm the hypothesis that transport is difficult to decarbonize with purely monetary signals when looking at the period before 2070. In the long run, however, the three global models achieve deep transport emission reductions by >90% through the use of advanced vehicle technologies and carbon-free primary energy; especially biomass with CCS plays a crucial role. Compared to the global models, the two partial-equilibrium models are relatively inflexible in their reaction to climate policies. Across all models, transportation mitigation lags behind non-transport mitigation by 10-30 years. The extent to which earlier mitigation is possible strongly depends on implemented technologies and model structure.
- Published
- 2013
84. Long-term Transport Energy Demand and Climate Policy: Alternative Visions on Transport Decarbonization in Energy Economy Models
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Pietzcker, Robert, Longden, Thomas, Chen, Wenying, Fu, Sha, Kriegler, Elmar, Kyle, Page, and Luderer, Gunnar
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Carbon Emission Mitigation ,Advanced Light Duty Vehicles ,Demand Reduction ,Energy-Economy Modeling ,Integrated Assessment ,Environmental Economics and Policy ,Transportation Scenarios - Abstract
Transportation accounts for a substantial share of CO2 emissions, and decarbonizing transport will be necessary to limit global warming to below 2°C. Due to persistent reliance on fossil fuels, it is posited that transport is more difficult to decarbonize than other sectors. We test this hypothesis by comparing long-term transport energy demand and emission projections for China, USA and the World from five large-scale energy-economy models with respect to three climate policies. We systematically analyze mitigation levers along the chain of causality from mobility to emissions, and discuss structural differences between mitigation in transport and non-transport sectors. We can confirm the hypothesis that transport is difficult to decarbonize with purely monetary signals when looking at the period before 2070. In the long run, however, the three global models achieve deep transport emission reductions by >90% through the use of advanced vehicle technologies and carbon-free primary energy; especially biomass with CCS plays a crucial role. Compared to the global models, the two partial-equilibrium models are relatively inflexible in their reaction to climate policies. Across all models, transportation mitigation lags behind non-transport mitigation by 10-30 years. The extent to which earlier mitigation is possible strongly depends on implemented technologies and model structure.
- Published
- 2012
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- View/download PDF
85. Energy system transformations for limiting end-of-century warming to below 1.5 °C
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Rogelj, Joeri, primary, Luderer, Gunnar, additional, Pietzcker, Robert C., additional, Kriegler, Elmar, additional, Schaeffer, Michiel, additional, Krey, Volker, additional, and Riahi, Keywan, additional
- Published
- 2015
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86. Complementing carbon prices with technology policies to keep climate targets within reach
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Bertram, Christoph, primary, Luderer, Gunnar, additional, Pietzcker, Robert C., additional, Schmid, Eva, additional, Kriegler, Elmar, additional, and Edenhofer, Ottmar, additional
- Published
- 2015
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87. Description of the REMIND Model (Version 1.6)
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Luderer, Gunnar, primary, Leimbach, Marian, additional, Bauer, Nico, additional, Kriegler, Elmar, additional, Baumstark, Lavinia, additional, Bertram, Christoph, additional, Giannousakis, Anastasis, additional, Hilaire, Jerome, additional, Klein, David, additional, Levesque, Antoine, additional, Mouratiadou, Ioanna, additional, Pehl, Michaja, additional, Pietzcker, Robert, additional, Piontek, Franziska, additional, Roming, Niklas, additional, Schultes, Anselm, additional, Schwanitz, Valeria Jana, additional, and Strefler, Jessica, additional
- Published
- 2015
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88. Deposition and analysis of Zinc oxide thin films by pulsed laser deposition
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Pietzcker, Robert
- Published
- 2007
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89. Residual fossil CO2emissions in 1.5–2 °C pathways
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Luderer, Gunnar, Vrontisi, Zoi, Bertram, Christoph, Edelenbosch, Oreane, Pietzcker, Robert, Rogelj, Joeri, Boer, Harmen, Drouet, Laurent, Emmerling, Johannes, Fricko, Oliver, Fujimori, Shinichiro, Havlík, Petr, Iyer, Gokul, Keramidas, Kimon, Kitous, Alban, Pehl, Michaja, Krey, Volker, Riahi, Keywan, Saveyn, Bert, Tavoni, Massimo, Vuuren, Detlef, and Kriegler, Elmar
- Abstract
The Paris Agreement—which is aimed at holding global warming well below 2 °C while pursuing efforts to limit it below 1.5 °C—has initiated a bottom-up process of iteratively updating nationally determined contributions to reach these long-term goals. Achieving these goals implies a tight limit on cumulative net CO2emissions, of which residual CO2emissions from fossil fuels are the greatest impediment. Here, using an ensemble of seven integrated assessment models (IAMs), we explore the determinants of these residual emissions, focusing on sector-level contributions. Even when strengthened pre-2030 mitigation action is combined with very stringent long-term policies, cumulative residual CO2emissions from fossil fuels remain at 850–1,150 GtCO2during 2016–2100, despite carbon prices of US$130–420 per tCO2by 2030. Thus, 640–950 GtCO2removal is required for a likely chance of limiting end-of-century warming to 1.5 °C. In the absence of strengthened pre-2030 pledges, long-term CO2commitments are increased by 160–330 GtCO2, further jeopardizing achievement of the 1.5 °C goal and increasing dependence on CO2removal. Residual CO2emissions from fossil fuels limit the likelihood of meeting the goals of the Paris Agreement. A sector-level assessment of residual emissions using an ensemble of IAMs indicates that 640–950 GtCO2removal will be required to constrain warming to 1.5 °C.
- Published
- 2018
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90. The role of renewable energy in climate stabilization: results from the EMF27 scenarios
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Luderer, Gunnar, primary, Krey, Volker, additional, Calvin, Katherine, additional, Merrick, James, additional, Mima, Silvana, additional, Pietzcker, Robert, additional, Van Vliet, Jasper, additional, and Wada, Kenichi, additional
- Published
- 2013
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91. Economic mitigation challenges: how further delay closes the door for achieving climate targets
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Luderer, Gunnar, primary, Pietzcker, Robert C, additional, Bertram, Christoph, additional, Kriegler, Elmar, additional, Meinshausen, Malte, additional, and Edenhofer, Ottmar, additional
- Published
- 2013
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92. Description of the REMIND Model (Version 1.5)
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Luderer, Gunnar, primary, Leimbach, Marian, additional, Bauer, Nico, additional, Kriegler, Elmar, additional, Aboumahboub, Tino, additional, Curras, Tabaré Arroyo, additional, Baumstark, Lavinia, additional, Bertram, Christoph, additional, Giannousakis, Anastasis, additional, Hilaire, Jerome, additional, Klein, David, additional, Mouratiadou, Ioanna, additional, Pietzcker, Robert, additional, Piontek, Franziska, additional, Roming, Niklas, additional, Schultes, Anselm, additional, Schwanitz, Valeria Jana, additional, and Strefler, Jessica, additional
- Published
- 2013
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93. Long-Term Transport Energy Demand and Climate Policy: Alternative Visions on Transport Decarbonization in Energy Economy Models
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Pietzcker, Robert, primary, Longden, Thomas, additional, Chen, Wenying, additional, Fu, Sha, additional, Kriegler, Elmar, additional, Kyle, Page, additional, and Luderer, Gunnar, additional
- Published
- 2013
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94. The Big Picture - Representing the System Integration Challenge of Wind and Solar in Integrated Assessment Models.
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Pietzcker, Robert C., Ueckerdt, Falko, and Luderer, Gunnar
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WIND power ,SYSTEM integration ,CLIMATE change mitigation ,RENEWABLE energy sources ,MATHEMATICAL models - Abstract
Integrated Assessment Models are used to analyze the long-term energy system transformation pathways needed for stringent climate mitigation targets and to derive technology deployment targets, e.g. for variable renewable energies. Due to their substantial temporal and spatial aggregation, IAMs cannot explicitly represent the detailed challenges of VRE integration in power systems, but rather rely on parameterized modelling approaches. In this study, we present current undertakings aimed at improving these modelling approaches. To evaluate different modelling approaches, we introduce a framework based on stylized facts about power sector dynamics and VRE integration. Finally, the need for specific additional research based on detailed bottom-up models is discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2014
95. Carbon Lock-Out: Advancing Renewable Energy Policy in Europe
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Lehmann, Paul, primary, Creutzig, Felix, additional, Ehlers, Melf-Hinrich, additional, Friedrichsen, Nele, additional, Heuson, Clemens, additional, Hirth, Lion, additional, and Pietzcker, Robert, additional
- Published
- 2012
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96. Deep decarbonisation of buildings energy services through demand and supply transformations in a 1.5��C scenario
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Levesque, Antoine, Pietzcker, Robert C., Baumstark, Lavinia, and Luderer, Gunnar
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buildings energy demand ,energy efficiency gap ,13. Climate action ,330 Wirtschaft ,11. Sustainability ,integrated assessment model ,IAM ,buildings decarbonisation ,7. Clean energy ,mitigation scenario ,energy efficiency - Abstract
Buildings energy consumption is one of the most important contributors to greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions worldwide, responsible for 23% of energy-related CO2 emissions. Decarbonising the energy demand of buildings will require two types of strategies: first, an overall reduction in energy demand, which could, to some extent, be achieved at negative costs; and second through a reduction of the carbon content of energy via fuel switching and supply-side decarbonisation. This study assesses the contributions of each of these strategies for the decarbonisation of the buildings sector in line with a 1.5��C global warming. We show that in a 1.5��C scenario combining mitigation policies and a reduction of market failures in efficiency markets, 81% of the reductions in buildings emissions are achieved through the reduction of the carbon content of energy, while the remaining 19% are due to efficiency improvements which reduce energy demand by 31%. Without supply-side decarbonisation, efficiency improvements almost entirely suppress the doubling of emissions that would otherwise be expected, but fail to induce an absolute decline in emissions. Our modelling and scenarios show the impact of both climate change mitigation policies and of the alleviation of market failures pervading through energy efficiency markets. The results show that the reduction of the carbon content of energy through fuel switching and supply-side decarbonisation is of paramount importance for the decarbonisation of buildings.
97. Corrigendum: Energy system transformations for limiting end-of-century warming to below 1.5 °C
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Rogelj, Joeri, Luderer, Gunnar, Pietzcker, Robert C., Kriegler, Elmar, Schaeffer, Michiel, Krey, Volker, and Riahi, Keywan
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- 2016
- Full Text
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98. Representing Power Sector Variability and the Integration of Variable Renewables in Long-Term Energy-Economy Models using Residual Load Duration Curves
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Pietzcker, Robert
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- 2015
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99. Klimapolitik auf der Seite der Energienachfrage: Die Rolle des Gebäudesektors
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Levesque, Antoine, Edenhofer, Ottmar, Luderer, Gunner, Pietzcker, Robert C., Technische Universität Berlin, and Löschel, Andreas
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ddc:330 - Abstract
In 2015, the international community committed to limiting global warming well below 2°C. Since 2015, however, and before the coronavirus pandemic stroke, GHG emissions have continued on their growing track and the achievement of ambitious climate targets has become even more arduous. In order to rein in global warming well below 2°C, energy systems must reach net-zero emissions by mid-century. The energy supply, in particular the electricity sector, offers a great potential for reducing emissions. But in the absence of large transformations on the energy demand side, achieving the Paris Agreement’s target would necessitate an extensive recourse to debated negative emission technologies. The interest in demand-side solutions has therefore risen over the last few years. Today, buildings account for 28% of CO2 emissions in the energy system. This sector is therefore an essential building block of any successful mitigation strategy. The aim of this thesis is to investigate the contribution of buildings to limit climate change. The widespread view on the role of buildings is that there is a large and cost-effective potential for energy demand reductions, and that this potential remains unexploited due to some barriers, which policies should remove. This thesis relies on energy modeling to shed a new light on that widespread view. It uses the strengths of both an energy simulation model and of an integrated assessment model representing the energy, economy and climate systems. In order to assess the role of buildings in climate policies, the thesis addresses the following complementary questions: How will buildings energy consumption evolve in the future? What is the technological and behavioral potential for demand reductions? What are optimal climate change mitigation pathways for the buildings sector in the context of the overall energy system, and when the energy efficiency gap is taken into account? This thesis shows that the landscape of buildings energy demand will undergo major changes in the 21st century: while cooking and other heating purposes account for the bulk of the demand today; space cooling, appliances and lighting will represent the lion’s share tomorrow. Similarly, despite its current weight in demand, traditional biomass will gradually leave the stage. Against this background, radical changes in technologies and behaviors could lead to a halving of energy demand. The decarbonization of the sector however does not only pass through energy demand reductions. In the scenarios presented in this thesis, most of the decarbonization is attributed to the decline in the emissions per unit of energy consumed—a topic under-represented in the literature dealing with buildings energy demand. In light of the thesis’ results, and supported by the literature, we challenge the widespread view on the role of buildings in climate change mitigation. Indeed, the widespread narrative focuses mostly on energy demand reductions and does not embrace the strategy consisting in decreasing the amount of emissions per unit of energy — in particular via electrification and fuel switching. This strategy accounts however for a substantial part of the sector’s decarbonization. We therefore propose an alternative narrative: Two complementary and interacting strategies can lead to a deep decarbonization of buildings energy demand: reducing energy demand and decreasing the carbon content of energy demand through energy supply decarbonization and fuel switching. Virtually all energy services in buildings could be provided by carbon-free energy carriers. However market incentives as well as barriers do not allow for a widespread uptake of clean energy carriers and efficient technologies. Policies should remove barriers to the uptake of efficient and low-carbon technologies, and design markets to give the right incentives in favor of these options. Im Jahr 2015 hat sich die internationale Gemeinschaft verpflichtet, die globale Erwärmung deutlich unter 2°C zu begrenzen. Seit 2015 und vor der Corona-Krise sind die Treibhausgasemissionen jedoch weiter gestiegen und derWeg zu ehrgeizigen Klimazielen ist noch beschwerlicher geworden. Um die globale Erwärmung deutlich unter 2°C einzudämmen, müssen die Energiesysteme bis Mitte des Jahrhunderts Netto-Null-Emissionen erreichen. Die Energieversorgung, insbesondere der Elektrizitätssektor, bietet ein großes Potenzial für Emissionsreduktionen. Ohne große Veränderungen auf der Seite der Energienachfrage, würde es einen umfangreichen Rückgriff auf die umstrittenen Technologien zur CO2-Entnahme erfordern, um das Ziel des Pariser Abkommens zu erreichen. Das Interesse an Lösungen auf der Seite der Nachfrage ist daher in den letzten Jahren gestiegen. Heute sind Gebäude für 28% der gesamten Emissionen im Energiesystem verantwortlich. Dieser Sektor ist daher ein wesentlicher Baustein jedes erfolgreichen Klimaschutzes. Das Ziel dieser Dissertation besteht darin, den Beitrag zu untersuchen, den Gebäude zur Begrenzung des Klimawandels leisten könnten. Die weit verbreitete Sichtweise zur Rolle von Gebäuden beim Klimaschutz lässt sich wie folgt zusammenfassen: Es gibt ein großes und kostenwirksames Potenzial für die Verringerung der Energienachfrage, und dieses Potenzial bleibt aufgrund einiger Hindernisse ungenutzt. Die Politik sollte diese Hindernisse beseitigen. Diese Dissertation beruht auf Energie- und Integrated Assessment Modellen, um ein neues Licht auf diese verbreitete Sicht zu werfen. Um die Rolle von Gebäuden in der Klimapolitik zu bewerten, befasst sich die Arbeit mit den folgenden ergänzenden Fragen: Wie wird sich der Energiebedarf im 21. Jahrhundert entwickeln? Was ist das technologische und verhaltensbedingte Potenzial für die Reduzierung des Energiebedarfs in Gebäuden? Was sind optimale Wege zur Eindämmung des Klimawandels für den Gebäudesektor im Kontext des Gesamtenergiesystems, und wenn die Energieeffizienzlücke berücksichtigt wird? Diese Dissertation zeigt, dass sich die Energienachfragelandschaft der Gebäude im 21. Jahrhundert stark verändern wird: Während heute Kochen und andere Heizbedarfe den Großteil der Nachfrage ausmachen, werden zukünftig Raumkühlung, Geräte und Beleuchtung den Löwenanteil des Bedarfs ausmachen. In ähnlicher Weise wird die traditionelle Biomasse trotz ihres derzeitigen Gewichts bei der Nachfrage allmählich die Bühne verlassen. Vor diesem Hintergrund könnten radikale Veränderungen der Technologien und Verhaltensweisen zu einer Halbierung des Energiebedarfs führen. Die Dekarbonisierung des Sektors geht jedoch nicht nur über die Reduzierung der Energienachfrage. Die in dieser Dissertation vorgestellten Szenarien zeigen, dass der größte Teil der Dekarbonisierung darauf zurückzuführen ist, dass weniger Kohlenstoff pro Einheit verbrauchter Energie emittiert wird — ein Thema, das in der Fachliteratur zur Energienachfrage im Gebäudesektor unterrepräsentiert ist. Anhand der in dieser Arbeit vorgestellten Ergebnisse und unterstützt durch die Literatur stellen wir die konventionelle Sichtweise in Frage. Tatsächlich konzentriert sich die verbreitete Erzählung auf die Reduzierung der Energienachfrage und geht nicht auf die Strategie ein, die darin besteht, den Kohlenstoffgehalt der Energie zu verringern, insbesondere durch Brennstoffwechsel. Diese Strategie macht jedoch einen wesentlichen Teil der Dekarbonisierung des Sektors aus. Wir schlagen daher eine alternative Erzählung vor: Zwei komplementäre und interagierende Strategien können zu einer tiefgreifenden Dekarbonisierung des Energiebedarfs von Gebäuden führen: die Verringerung des Energiebedarfs an sich und die Verringerung des Kohlenstoffgehalts des Energiebedarfs. Praktisch alle Energiedienstleistungen in Gebäuden könnten durch kohlenstofffreie Energieträger bereitgestellt werden. Die Marktanreize und -barrieren erlauben jedoch keine breite Nutzung von Energieeffizienz und kohlenstofffreien Energieträgern. Die Politik sollte Hindernisse für die Einführung effizienter und kohlenstoffarmer Technologien beseitigen und Märkte so gestalten, dass die richtigen Anreize für diese Technologien gegeben werden.
- Published
- 2021
100. Comparing energy system optimization models and integrated assessment models: Relevance for energy policy advice.
- Author
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Henke H, Dekker M, Lombardi F, Pietzcker R, Fragkos P, Zakeri B, Rodrigues R, Sitarz J, Emmerling J, Fattahi A, Dalla Longa F, Tatarewicz I, Fotiou T, Lewarski M, Huppmann D, Kavvadias K, van der Zwaan B, and Usher W
- Abstract
Background: The transition to a climate neutral society such as that envisaged in the European Union Green Deal requires careful and comprehensive planning. Integrated assessment models (IAMs) and energy system optimisation models (ESOMs) are both commonly used for policy advice and in the process of policy design. In Europe, a vast landscape of these models has emerged and both kinds of models have been part of numerous model comparison and model linking exercises. However, IAMs and ESOMs have rarely been compared or linked with one another., Methods: This study conducts an explorative comparison and identifies possible flows of information between 11 of the integrated assessment and energy system models in the European Climate and Energy Modelling Forum. The study identifies and compares regional aggregations and commonly reported variables. We define harmonised regions and a subset of shared result variables that enable the comparison of scenario results across the models., Results: The results highlight how power generation and demand development are related and driven by regional and sectoral drivers. They also show that demand developments like for hydrogen can be linked with power generation potentials such as onshore wind power. Lastly, the results show that the role of nuclear power is related to the availability of wind resources., Conclusions: This comparison and analysis of modelling results across model type boundaries provides modellers and policymakers with a better understanding of how to interpret both IAM and ESOM results. It also highlights the need for community standards for region definitions and information about reported variables to facilitate future comparisons of this kind. The comparison shows that regional aggregations might conceal differences within regions that are potentially of interest for national policy makers thereby indicating a need for national-level analysis., Competing Interests: No competing interests were disclosed., (Copyright: © 2024 Henke H et al.)
- Published
- 2024
- Full Text
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