Search

Ocean gulfs offer a means of artificially creating a depression, which can be used for a regionally significant hydroelectric macroproject. We examine here the case for a dam at the Strait of Hormuz that blocks a large gulf situated in an arid region. A 35 m evaporation of this concentration basin will reduce its watery surface area by ∼53% and allow generation of ∼2.050 MW (or possibly ∼2.500 MW) of electricity. Our conclusion is that the proposed Electricity Development Infrastructure Node (EDIN) is a feasible and desirable macroproject. If the macroproject starts in the near-term future, it would require a significant change in the logistics of oil and gas transport from this region. Alternatively, it can be considered as an attractive future solution for the energy requirements of the region after exhaustion of its oil and gas reserves.

The production and the depletion of mineral resources, and especially oil and fossil fuels, has been an object of extensive predictive modeling. These predictions are often derived from Hubbert's model which is based on the fitting of the experimental data to a symmetric, bell-shaped curve. Although this model describes several historical cases, in particular, crude oil production in the lower 48 US states, not all theoretical models for the “mineral economy” are based on symmetric curves. Also, not much attention has been dedicated so far to the mechanisms which lead to such a behavior. In particular, scarce attention has been dedicated to the factors which may make the production curve asymmetric, e.g. a decline in production more abrupt than the growth. In the present paper, the author uses a stochastic model to examine factors affecting these phenomena. The results of the simulations indicate that the production curves of a non-renewable resource may be asymmetric in dependence on factors such as the search strategy or the presence of technological improvements. Considering worldwide oil production, the simulations indicate that the after-peak downward slope might turn out to be considerably more steep than the upward slope, something that could have unpleasant effects on the economy.

A risk analysis is presented of the peaking of world conventional oil production and the likely transition to unconventional oil resources such as oil sands, heavy oil, and shale oil. Estimates of world oil resources by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and C. J. Campbell provide alternative views of ultimate world oil resources. A global energy scenario created by the International Institute of Applied Systems Analysis and the World Energy Council provides the context for the risk analysis. A model of oil resource depletion and expansion for 12 world regions is combined with a market equilibrium model of conventional and unconventional oil supply and demand. The model does not use Hubbert curves. Key variables such as the quantity of undiscovered oil and rates of technological progress are treated as probability distributions, rather than constants. Analyses based on the USGS resource assessment indicate that conventional oil production outside the Middle East is likely to peak sometime between 2010 and 2030. Even if oil production does not peak before 2020, output of conventional oil is likely to increase at a substantially slower rate after that date. Analysis based on data produced by Campbell indicates that the peak of non-Middle East production will occur before 2010. Once world conventional oil production peaks, oil sands and heavy oil from Canada, Venezuela, and Russia and, later, shale oil from the United States must expand rapidly if total world consumption of petroleum fuels is to continue to increase.

This comment provides some reflections on the oil depletion controversy in the recent issue of Minerals & Energy . Scientific controversies are generally a good thing as they fuel fruitful deliberations within the scientific community, but in this particular case the controversy has been far from fruitful. This is partly due to a lack of interest among some of the participants to attempt to understand and even discuss the approach and the standpoints of the opponents, not the least among the Natural Scientists represented by Kjell Aleklett and Colin Campbell. Economic analysis, which clearly is under attack in the latter's article, can clearly not replace natural science but it is essential for understanding resource depletion. This comment provides a number of examples illustrating: (a) why this is the case; and (b) that Aleklett and Campbell often misinterpret the essence of economic analysis. Finally, the comment briefly addresses an important moral and ethical issue that was not touched upon in the ab...

The global production of conventional oil is predicted to have reached a peak plateau in the first decade of this century and will gradually decline, while demand outstrips the discovery and exploitation of new oil sources. Current oil strategies are geared to mitigation actions, but adaptive measures will become more important in the longer term future as oil supply becomes constrained. This paper reports the grounded theory research of a PhD investigation into adapting urban residential development to an oil-constrained future, in the Australian and wider context. The planning research is grounded in a general theoretical framework of sustainable development theory, encompassing urban metabolism and material flow analysis. European pre-oil economy cities form the basis for development of four grounded theories and a conceptual framework model about the characteristics of an oil-constrained sustainable city. The framework provides the basis of a tool for integrating the effects of oil constraints into the urban metabolism for sustainable planning and development. These theories and model will assist spatial planners to guide transformation of urban residential forms towards a transitional city of tomorrow and an oil-constrained city of the future.

Decarbonising transport is proving to be one of today’s major challenges for the global automotive industry due to many factors such as the increase in greenhouse gas and particulate emissions not only affecting the climate but also humans, the increase in pollution, rapid oil depletion, issues with energy security and dependency from foreign sources and population growth. Major breakthroughs in low and ultra-low carbon technologies and vehicles are urgently required. this chapter highlights the current status of hybrid, battery and fuel cell electric vehicles from an electrochemical and market point of view.

Peaking of the world’s oil supply is resulting in economic, social, cultural, and environmental instability on a global level. Individuals, businesses, and entire countries are attempting to maintain economic growth and preserve our current way of life for as long as possible. Government attention is turned toward averting economic collapse and obtaining energy resources, while the people are concerned about job security and subsistence. Environmental concerns are receiving the least attention by the majority of people. The environment is being ravaged by an aggressive quest for more fossil fuel resources to support a growing population and sustain economic growth by a society that knows no other way to live and is utterly dependent on oil. Addressing current environmental problems is already a challenge for conservationists, because societal priorities reside elsewhere or resolving these issues directly impacts certain powerful economic interests. The environmental community, including many professional societies and conservation organizations, as well as a number of government agencies and private companies, will need to step up their efforts to address global impacts of oil depletion if they hope to continue to protect living natural systems and the environment. Unfortunately, societal capacity to support these vital efforts is diminishing due to the buildup of pervasive economic pressures from escalating higher costs of living in response to higher prices for energy.

The history of estimating oil reserves has proven a history of long-lasting misunderstandings. The split between the environmental perception of depletion and the common man’s view, further contrasted the differences between the standpoints of the scientific and business communities, led to the most controversial topic ever debated within the energy community. While some forewarned that a critical moment for humanity was approaching, others found that all evidence and experience pointed in the opposite direction. This chapter traces the history of this debate from the first oil survey undertaken in the USA in 1909 through to current days. We trace how the accuracy of already known fixed stocks (proven reserves) has dominated all public concerns up until the moment when the peak theory of geophysicist King Hubbert shifted the terms of the discussion and grounding it in the size of the unknown—estimates of resources still undiscovered. The final section provides a review of the state of the art in the oil depletion debate.

This paper presents a comprehensive mathematical framework for depletion rate analysis and ties it to the physics of depletion. Theory was compared with empirical data from 1036 fields and a number of regions. Strong agreement between theory and practice was found, indicating that the framework is plausible. Both single fields and entire regions exhibit similar depletion rate patterns, showing the generality of the approach. The maximum depletion rates for fields were found to be well described by a Weibull distribution. Depletion rates were also found to strongly correlate with decline rates. In particular, the depletion rate at peak was shown to be useful for predicting the future decline rate. Studies of regions indicate that a depletion rate of remaining recoverable resources in the range of 2–3% is consistent with historical experience. This agrees well with earlier “peak oil” forecasts and indicates that they rest on a solid scientific ground.

The End of Cheap Oil In 1973 and 1979 a pair of sudden price increases rudely awakened the industrial world to its dependence on cheap crude oil. Prices first tripled in response to an Arab embargo and then nearly doubled again when Iran dethroned its Shah, sending the major economies sputtering into recession. Many analysts warned that these crises proved that the world would soon run out of oil. Yet they were wrong. Their dire predictions were emotional and political reactions; even at the time, oil experts knew that they had no scientific basis. Just a few years earlier oil explorers had discovered enormous new oil provinces on the north slope of Alaska and below the North Sea off the coast of Europe. By 1973 the world had consumed, according to many experts’ best estimates, only about one eighth of its endowment of readily accessible crude oil (socalled conventional oil). The five Middle The End of Cheap Oil

The global production of oil is predicted to have reached a peak in the first decade of this century and will gradually decline, while demand outstrips the discovery and exploitation of new oil sources. This paper investigates issues of adapting urban development to an oil-constrained future, exploring the analogy between oil depletion and climate change. These issues are two of the global wicked problems this century; however, oil depletion is likely to have greater certainty in its predicted impacts. The terminology of climate change mitigation and adaptation is modified to assess its application to oil depletion actions, referring to recent policy research by Hirsch et al on oil supply mitigation as a case study. The categorisation of the proposed administrative measures and physical options is analysed using a non-metric ordinal scale, to indicate how closely they align with the proposed mitigation and adaptation definitions. It is concluded that while there is some blurring between the categories (in a similar way to global warming actions); the modified terminology is a useful way to categorise and analyse oil depletion actions. Current oil strategies are geared to mitigation actions, but adaptive measures will become much more important in the longer term future as oil supply becomes constrained.

Weathering and biodegradation alter the composition of spilled oil, making it difficult to identify the source of the release and to monitor its fate in the environment. Using intertidal sediment and terrestrial soil data that cover a wide range of oil weathering states, we show that ratios of alkylated dibenzothiophenes and phenanthrenes are useful for source identification even up to 98% depletion of total polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs). Furthermore, we find that some ratios of alkylated naphthalenes, phenanthrenes, and chrysenes can qualitatively assess the extent of weathering an oil has undergone since a spill. These source and weathering ratios appear to successfully describe oil depletion and to identify sources in subtidal sediment data from the M/C Haven spill in Italy, the Exxon Valdez spill in Alaska, and a North Sea oil spill.

In 1998, Colin Campbell and Jean Laherrere published an article in the Scientific American Magazine where they estimated the amount of oil that remained to be produced. Years before, Campbell got interested in the study of oil depletion around 1969, in Chicago, when he was part of a team making a world evaluation for Amoco (now part of BP). Later, as the manager of the Norwegian branch of the Italian company Fina, he had the company, and the Norwegian authorities sponsored a research project on the subject using public reserve data, which later proved to be very unreliable.

The purpose of this paper is to examine the role of biomass energy in the federal government policies of Canada, Mexico and the USA on the development and utilization of biomass energy. These policies span the entire spectrum from poor to excellent. One of the main driving forces displacing fossil fuels today is environmental issues. But there are still major barriers that are affected by government policies and that must be overcome to facilitate the displacement of large amounts of fossil fuels by biomass. Among these are development of large-scale systems that can supply sustainable amounts of biomass energy and biofuels at competitive prices, and nationwide distribution systems that simplify consumer access. These and other barriers must ultimately be addressed if any federal government decides to institute policies to help establish large-scale biomass energy markets. Otherwise biomass energy utilization will continue to rely on government subsidies and will be limited to niche markets for many years until oil depletion and supply disruptions become a fact of life. This indeed may turn out to be the third oil shock in the 21st century.

This paper, using a six-region DSGE model of the world economy, assesses the GDP and current account implications of permanent oil supply shocks hitting the world economy at an unspecified future date. For modest-sized shocks and conventional production technologies the effects are modest. But for larger shocks, for elasticities of substitution that decline as oil usage is reduced to a minimum, and for production functions in which oil acts as a critical enabler of technologies, GDP growth could drop significantly. Also, oil prices could become so high that smooth adjustment, as assumed in the model, may become very difficult.

Introduction: The Promise of Renewable Power * Part I: Context * Oil Depletion * Global Climate Change and Renewable Energy: Exploring the Links * Renewable Energy for Developing Countries: Challenges and Opportunities * Part II: Policies to Develop Renewable Electricity and its Generation Technologies * Danish Wind Power Policies from 1976 to 2004: A Survey of Policy Making and Techno-Economic Innovation * Germany: From a Modest Feed-in Law to a Framework for Transition * The UK Renewables Obligation * The Design and Impacts of the Texas Renewables Portfolio Standard * European Union Policy towards Renewable Power * Part III: Evaluation of Policies and Approaches * Comparing Support for Renewable Power * Renewable Energy: Political Prices or Political Quantities * Tradeable Certificate Systems and Feed-in Tariffs: Expectation Versus Performance * Index

International audience

The above quote from the former Saudi oil minister is rather well known, and it is popular among those who believe that technology will inevitably solve the problem of oil depletion. In fact, the Stone Age ended because the Bronze Age began. Thus, the implication is that the Oil Age will end because of the rise of the Fusion Age or the Solar Age or the Biofuels Age.

This paper, using a six-region dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model of the world economy, assesses the output and current account implications of permanent oil supply shocks hitting the world economy. For modest-sized shocks and conventional production technologies, the effects are modest. But for larger shocks, for elasticities of substitution that decline as oil usage is reduced to a minimum, and for production functions in which oil acts as a critical enabler of technologies, output growth could drop significantly. Also, oil prices could become so high that smooth adjustment, as assumed in the model, may become very difficult.

The global production of oil is predicted to peak in the first decade(s) of this century and decline, while demand outstrips the discovery and exploitation of new oil sources. Land use (spatial) planning has largely failed to address the full consequences of the accelerating impacts of post-peak oil demand and subsequent oil depletion, as they may affect planning future urban growth in the Australian and wider global context. This paper lays the groundwork for a PhD methodology that investigates oil dependency issues in the sustainable planning context, based on a literature review, to establish relationships linking direct and indirect oil related inputs to urban land development and residential construction. The literature review failed to reveal conclusive information – beyond embodied energy in building materials and energy efficiency in ‘green building’– or theories about how future oil supply constraints may affect the feasibility of urban land development and residential building construction. The conclusion to the literature review is that urban planning is based on the underlying assumption of a business-as-usual approach to urban residential development, albeit with higher prices for petrol consumption in transport. The research points to a hypothesis that relationships linking oil related inputs to urban residential development suggest some current forms of development in the Australian and wider context may become unsustainable in a future with globally constrained oil supply (this will later extend to gas supply). The urban metabolism model indicates the broad relationships, but not relative oil vulnerabilities of urban development, or the mitigating factors. Further case study analysis of material flows of oil related inputs for a representative residential typology will assess how future oil constraints may

This study explores the impact of oil depletion on the energetic efficiency of oil extraction and refining in California. These changes are measured using energy return ratios (such as the energy return on investment, or EROI). I construct a time-varying first-order process model of energy inputs and outputs of oil extraction. The model includes factors such as oil quality, reservoir depth, enhanced recovery techniques, and water cut. This model is populated with historical data for 306 California oil fields over a 50 year period. The model focuses on the effects of resource quality decline, while technical efficiencies are modeled simply. Results indicate that the energy intensity of oil extraction in California increased significantly from 1955 to 2005. This resulted in a decline in the life-cycle EROI from 6.5 to 3.5 (measured as megajoules (MJ) delivered to final consumers per MJ primary energy invested in energy extraction, transport, and refining). Most of this decline in energy returns is due to increasing need for steam-based thermal enhanced oil recovery, with secondary effects due to conventional resource depletion (e.g., increased water cut).

Increasing demands in world-wide energy consumption and oil depletion of large reservoirs have resulted in the need for exploring smaller and more complex oil reservoirs. Planning of the reservoir valorization usually starts with creating a model of the subsurface structures, including seismic faults and horizons. However, seismic interpretation and horizon tracing is a difficult and error-prone task, often resulting in hours of work needing to be manually repeated. In this paper, we propose a novel, interactive workflow for horizon interpretation based on well positions, which include additional geological and geophysical data captured by actual drillings. Instead of interpreting the volume slice-by-slice in 2D, we propose 3D seismic interpretation based on well positions. We introduce a combination of 2D and 3D minimal cost path and minimal cost surface tracing for extracting horizons with very little user input. By processing the volume based on well positions rather than slice-based, we are able to create a piecewise optimal horizon surface at interactive rates. We have integrated our system into a visual analysis platform which supports multiple linked views for fast verification, exploration and analysis of the extracted horizons. The system is currently being evaluated by our collaborating domain experts.

Nous étudions l'effet sur le marché des aliments de l'introduction sur le marché de l'énergie de biocarburants, comme substitut aux combustibles fossiles. Nous supposons une économie où cohabitent sur le marché de l'énergie un cartel pétrolier et une frange compétitive de cultivateurs qui produit de l'énergie sous forme de biocarburant. Les cultivateurs produisent également des produits agricoles qu'ils vendent sur le marché des aliments. Nous caractérisons la relation qui en résulte entre le prix de l'énergie et le prix des aliments, ainsi que le sentier d'extraction du cartel pétrolier et le sentier de prix de l'énergie. Il est démontré que le prix des aliments va croître aussi longtemps que le stock de pétrole n'est pas épuisé, et cela que la population soit croissante ou non. Il continuera à croître une fois le stock de pétrole épuisé si la population est croissante. Les effets de l'amélioration dans la productivité de la terre dans la production d'aliments ainsi que dans la production de biocarburant sont analysés.

Yemen is an oil-exporting and food-importing country with the highest levels of poverty in the Middle East and North Africa. The impacts of the triple crisis are likely to further complicate pre-existing conditions of conflict, oil depletion and governance failure. Using a dynamic CGE model, this article finds that oil-driven growth in 2008 dominated the negative growth impacts of the food crisis, but that growth was not pro-poor. The financial crisis of 2009 slowed growth sharply and raised the poverty rate to 42.8%, up from 34.8% in 2005/6. Poverty continues to be higher in rural areas, where almost half the population live in poverty.

Oil depletion scenarios suggest that public transport powered largely by electricity, together with cycling and walking, will be the mainstays of future urban mobility. This paper argues that there is great scope, in a time-scale of years rather than decades, for transport planners to increase the number and types of trips for which public transport is a convenient option. Our argument begins with a snapshot of Melbourne during the last period of intense and sustained constraints on oil supply and an overview of the performance of various transport modes in the three decades from 1976 to 2006. The decline of public transport since 1950 occurred at a faster rate than changes in density and can be reversed without the need for widespread re-creation of the urban form. The key to making these changes lies in the approach to public transport planning used in successful European and North American cities: service-based network planning. This model offers hope for greater public transport use in Austra...

Thèse numérisée par la Division de la gestion de documents et des archives de l'Université de Montréal.

Oil depletion is outlined as a process which needs to be accommodated in the worlds' cities over the next 40 to 50 years. Due to the timescales in replacing urban structures it is essential to start the process now. The huge variation in petrol use that is found in a global sample of cities, and their different transport and land-use patterns provide the basis for policy directions. Examples of successful implementation of such policies and their benefits are given.

In recent years, the use of pore-scale network models has greatly advanced our understanding of solution gas drive processes by accounting for the complex dynamics operating at the microscopic scale. Moreover, it has also been demonstrated that a pore-network model, when suitably anchored to core material is able to provide both qualitative and quantitative descriptions of relative permeability and hydrocarbon recovery. In contrast, many so-called "experimental" depletion drive relative permeabilities are not measured directly but are generally obtained by history-matching laboratory production data with reservoir simulators, often resulting in very low gas relative permeabilities that are difficult to explain from a physical viewpoint. Although pore-scale network models have been successfully used in the past to match raw production data, the steady-state relative permeabilities calculated from such models commonly predict much slower gas saturation build-up than that found experimentally. Some previous authors have related this low gas saturation build-up to the difference in the definition of critical gas saturation between reservoir simulators and pore-network models. However, the dentritic nature of gas-cluster topology in network models, especially in the presence of other forces, such as gravity or strong viscous pressure gradients, clearly suggests that significant anisotropy may exist in relative permeability due to the balance of forces at this scale. In the present work, we describe how the naïve process of scaling up steady-state relative permeabilities obtained from pore-scale network models to the laboratory scale may contribute significantly to the difficulty in history-matching experimental production. By considering the influence of the various forces (capillary, gravity, viscous) on the topology of the growing gas clusters and by accurately incorporating anisotropic network-model relative permeabilities, we show that high gas saturation build-up, consistent with experimental observations can be obtained from reservoir simulation.

Because of global warming and oil depletion, the number of wind turbines is increasing. Wind turbines commonly have a horizontal axis, but some wind turbines have a vertical axis. A problem of wind turbines with horizontal axis is that we need to face them towards the wind for maximising energy production. If the geography around a wind turbine is complicated, then the wind direction keeps changing. Thus, if one can predict the wind direction to some extent, then one may generate more electricity by controlling wind turbines according to the prediction. In this chapter, we discuss how to model the wind. First, we formulate a problem and clarify which properties of the wind we need to predict. Second, we discuss the characteristics for time series of the wind. Third, we model the wind based on the knowledge and predict it. We prepare different models for predicting wind direction and absolute wind speed. Finally, we apply the prediction and simulate control of a wind turbine. Since we integrate predictions for wind direction and absolute wind speed to obtain an optimal control, the whole scheme can be regarded as heterogeneous fusion.

Given the actual international concerns about global warming and oil depletion, there are increased interests on sustainable development. Thus, in order to preserve our actual mobility habits, it is very important to find new solutions for clean and efficient propulsion. Therefore, the global optimal design in the field of electric drive train is of major interest.The present dissertation proposes a rational methodology for global optimal design and uses it to design electric drive trains. The methodology is general and is managed by constrained optimization. It allows different levels of granularity within the design model. A graphical user interface was developed in order to easily apply this methodology to various practical cases of design. Two objectives were considered. The first relates to the definition of the component specifications, the second one to the detailed design of one or more components of the drive train taking into account the whole system. These applications highlight the advantages of suggested methodology and the importance of a systemic approach.; Les préoccupations actuelles sur le réchauffement climatique et la déplétion des ressources fossiles exigent une mutation basée sur le développement durable. Ainsi, afin de garder nos acquis en termes de mobilité, il est extrêmement important de trouver des solutions de propulsion propres et efficaces. C'est pourquoi, la conception optimale systémique des chaînes de traction électrique est un enjeu majeur.La thèse présente une méthodologie rationnelle pour la conception optimale systémique appliquée à la conception des chaînes de traction électrique. La méthodologie est générale et se base sur l'optimisation sous contraintes. Elle intègre l'utilisation de différents niveaux de granularité au sein du modèle de conception. Une interface a été développée afin d'appliquer aisément cette méthodologie à des cas pratiques variés. Deux objectifs ont été traités, le premier concerne la définition des cahiers des charges des composants, le deuxième concerne la conception détaillée d'un composant de la chaîne de traction en prenant en compte l'ensemble du système. Ces applications mettent en évidence les avantages de la méthodologie proposée et l'importance de l'approche systémique.

World oil depletion, including natural gas liquids, was modelled in the past by many authors. Recently, Guseo and Dalla Valle have introduced and Guidolin has applied a new approach following perturbed life-cycle diffusion models. Here we examine joint effects of economic and strategic or technological interventions using a Generalized Bass Model (GBM). Statistical analysis takes into account three different hierarchical levels: natural diffusion, long memory interventions and stochastic components. The main results confirm the statistical significance of historical 1970s shocks and highlight a strong long memory effect due to an increase in oil production after World War II. The estimated peak-date, 2007, and the 90% depletion time, 2019, are determined under an equilibrium intervention hypothesis.

In isolation, the depletion of the world's stocks of cheap oil is a risk management problem of global proportions. The risk would be manageable given an international agreement by all the developed nations to conserve much of the remaining cheap oil for essential purposes, but there is no such agreement nor is there any intent to create one. Evidence is presented to show that the synergetic interaction of oil depletion with other longstanding environmental problems will result in world food production peaking and then declining at a rapid rate. Australian Census data for the journey to work and the growth of car ownership are analysed. It reveals that car/oil dependency is growing in outer suburbia, where most Australians live and where future population growth will be housed. It is argued that oil dependency, if not reduced, will develop into a serious threat to national security in a few years. Health promotion professionals have an important role in activating local, State and Commonwealth governments to implement 'travel smart' programs. (author abstract)

From my perspective, and that of growing numbers like me, oil interests have hyped the product on which society has come to depend while stoking addiction and holding back alternatives. The oil industry's general contention is that peak oil lies far off in the 2030s or beyond. It doesn't. The peak is imminent, and will certainly happen this decade. When it arrives, it will send the oil price soaring beyond today's already dangerous level. This will trigger the worst-ever energy crisis, which itself stands to create economic chaos reminiscent of the depression in the 1930s. Meanwhile, global warming caused by oil, gas and coal burning is in danger of running out of control. Society will be forced, albeit in deplorable economic conditions, to solve oil depletion with a crash programme to accelerate alternative-energy sources. Whether it will do so with the technologies that can also solve global warming and save the planet is an open question. The biggest danger is that critical players like the US and China will use their enormous coal reserves to run power plants and provide gasoline substitutes without giving renewable alternatives enough of a chance. The extent to which we can accelerate renewable forms of power and fuel instead of coal, rather than alongside it, will be the final battleground in the effort to save Earth from the ravages of human-induced global warming. There is much that individuals, and organisations including businesses - oil companies among them - can do to influence the outcome of that struggle.

Peak Oil is when the rate of global oil production starts its final decline, from the current trends of increasing yearly production.. A growing number of estimates of the date of Peak Oil cluster around 2010-2015 (ASPOAustralia, 2006). The impact of Peak Oil on Australia is likely to be very severe, unless substantial mitigation and adaptation policies are implemented urgently. Many available options will have significant social and economic benefits as well as reducing oil dependence. Peak Oil countermeasures can be simultaneously both mitigation and adaptation strategies, unlike most climate change options which are normally either one or the other. The likelihood of significant Government action before an oil depletion crisis, however, is currently very low. Hirsch et al., 2005, outlined for the US DOE the requirements to start countermeasures 20 years before the peak of global oil production. This is in line with the Noah analogy presented at the first ASPO workshop (Bakhtiari, 2002). It is best to finish building the ark before the flood. Western Australia's Minister for Planning and Infrastructure, Hon. Alannah MacTiernan, said in 2004 "It is also certain that the cost of preparing too early is nowhere near the cost of not being ready on time." Australians are largely urbanised with 66% of the population living in sprawling cities along the south and east coast. The rural and remote parts of the country are very sparsely populated, and are highly dependent on oil for transport. The countermeasures suggested here for Australia could be applicable in many other countries, both those with largely urbanised populations and those with large land areas and long transport distances.

Concerns about global warming and its consequences have received much worldwide attention, but little consideration has been given until recently to the issue of oil depletion and the consequential peak of production, which may have a more immediate and greater impact (Youngquist, 1997; Campbell and Laherrere, 1998).

Primary production of heavy oil from unconsolidated sand reservoirs is a process that is not well understood. Laboratory depletion experiments of sand packs, which mimic the field situation at a laboratory scale, show that production behavior of heavy oils under solution gas drive depend in a complex way on diverse parameter such as: depletion rate1,2, fluid properties 3, porous medium properties45, etc. This work focuses on understanding the effect of the clay fraction in the sand pack on the recovery process. Experimental results from depletion tests at constant total volumetric production rate are presented. The porous media consisted of synthetic sands with different proportions of clay, except for one of the experiments, where reservoir sand was used. The oil was extra heavy crude (8 ºAPI) from the Venezuelan Orinoco Belt. Pressure, pressure drop over the core, and oil and gas production were measured as a function of time. It was found that critical gas saturation and recovery factor increase with increasing clay content, whereas the supersaturation or the deviation from thermodynamic equilibrium decreases. This is interpreted in terms of an increasing number of nucleation sites at increasing clay concentration. More activated nucleation sites lead to more and smaller bubbles that allow a lesser mobility for the gas phase. Gas then becomes significantly mobile at larger gas saturations. This hypothesis is supported by previously published data from micromodel experiments doped with clay particles6. The fact that critical gas saturation and recovery factor depend on the composition of the reservoir sand may strongly affect the evaluation of reservoir production capacity, because large regional heterogeneities related to clay content are often present in oil-producing "sands".