Search

Correlative habitat models using relationships between marine organisms and their surrounding environment can be used to predict species distribution, and the results can assist management of human activities sharing the marine space (e.g. fisheries, MPAs, tourism). Here, epi-benthic megafauna was sampled at 755 stations in the Lower Estuary and Northern Gulf of St. Lawrence (EGSL) each summer between 2006 and 2009. We combined various types of multivariate analyses to 1) describe the structure and spatial distribution of benthic communities, 2) analyse the relationship between these communities and environmental parameters, and subsequently 3) build a community distribution model to predict the spatial distribution of the communities, creating community distribution maps covering the entire area to be used for marine management and conservation. We identified distinct benthic communities in the study area that closely correlate with the 200 m depth contour and with major environmental variables. A redundancy analysis revealed that communities were associated with depth, oxygen saturation, temperature, bottom current, seabed uniformity, distance to coast and type of sediment. Together these environmental descriptors explained 38% of the variation in megafaunal community composition. The environmental variables were used to build a community distribution model using generalized linear models to predict high and low suitability zones of each community in the EGSL. (C) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Networks provide one of the best representations for ecological communities, composed of many species with sometimes complex connections between them. Yet the methodological literature allowing one to analyze and extract meaning from ecological networks is dense, fragmented, and unwelcoming. We provide a general overview to the field of using networks in community ecology, outlining both the intent of the different measures, their assumptions, and the contexts in which they can be used. When methodologically justified, we suggest good practices to use in the analysis of ecological networks. We anchor this synopsis with examples from empirical studies, and conclude by highlighting what identified as needed future developments in the field.

The Theory of Island Biogeography (TIB) predicts how area and isolation influence species richness equilibrium on insular habitats. However, the TIB remains silent about functional trait composition and provides no information on the scaling of functional diversity with area, an observation that is now documented in many systems. To fill this gap, we develop a probabilistic approach to predict the distribution of a trait as a function of habitat area and isolation, extending the TIB beyond the traditional species-area relationship. We compare model predictions to the body-size distribution of piscivorous and herbivorous fishes found on tropical reefs worldwide. We find that small and isolated reefs have a higher proportion of large-sized species than large and connected reefs. We also find that knowledge of species body-size and trophic position improves the predictions of fish occupancy on tropical reefs, supporting both the allometric and trophic theory of island biogeography. The integration of functional ecology to island biogeography is broadly applicable to any functional traits and provides a general probabilistic approach to study the scaling of trait distribution with habitat area and isolation.

chapitre 4; International audience; To understand why and how species invade ecosystems, ecologists have made heavy use of observations of species colonization on islands. The theory of island biogeography, developed in the 1960s by R.H. MacArthur and E.O. Wilson, has had a tremendous impact on how ecologists understand the link between species diversity and characteristics of the habitat such as isolation and size. Recent developments have described how the inclusion of information on trophic interactions can further inform our understanding of island biogeography dynamics. Here, we extend the trophic theory of island biogeography to assess whether certain food web properties on the mainland affect colonization/extinction dynamics of species on islands. Our results highlight that both food web connectance and size on the mainland increase species diversity on islands. We also highlight that more heavily tailed degree distributions in the mainland food web correlate with less frequent but potentially more important extinction cascades on islands. The average shortest path to a basal species on islands follows a hump-shaped curve as a function of realized species richness, with food chains slightly longer than on the mainland at intermediate species richness. More modular mainland webs are also less persistent on islands. We discuss our results in the context of global changes and from the viewpoint of community assembly rules, aiming at pinpointing further theoretical developments needed to make the trophic theory of island biogeography even more useful for fundamental and applied ecology.

International audience; Ecological theory is essential to predict the effects of global changes such as habitat loss and fragmentation on biodiversity. Species-area relationships (SAR), metapopulation models (MEP) and species distribution models (SDM) are commonly used tools incorporating different ecological processes to explain biodiversity distribution and dynamics. Yet few studies have compared the outcomes of these disparate models and investigated their complementarity. Here we show that the processes underlying SAR (patch area), MEP (patch isolation) and SDM (environmental conditions) models can be compared with a common statistical framework. Our approach allows for species and community-level predictions under current and future landscape scenarios, facilitates multi-model comparison and provides the machinery for integrating multiple mechanisms into one model. We apply this framework to the distribution of eight focal vertebrate species in current and future projected landscapes where 10% of the landscape is lost to land-use change in southwestern, Quebec, Canada. Based on a model selection approach, we found that a model including patch area was the top ranked model for four of our focal species and models including patch isolation and environmental conditions were the top ranked models for two focal species each. Community-level predictions of models based on patch area, patch isolation and environmental conditions for both current and future landscapes showed high spatial overlap, however, patch area models always predicted a reduction of species richness per patch whereas both the patch isolation and environmental conditions models predicted an increase or decrease in species richness per patch following habitat loss and fragmentation. Our comparative tool will allow ecologists and conservation practitioners to relate structural uncertainty to key mechanisms underlying each model. Ultimately, this approach is one step in the direction of deriving robust predictions for the change and loss of biodiversity under global change, which is key for informing conservation plans.

Despite being instrumental in forest ecology, the definition and nature of shade tolerance are complex and not beyond controversy. Moreover, the role it plays in the trait-demography relationship remains unclear. Here, we hypothesize that shade tolerance can be achieved by alternative combinations of traits depending on the species' functional group (evergreen vs. deciduous species) and that its ability to explain the array of traits involved in demography will also vary between these two groups. We used dimension reduction to identify the main trait spectra for 48 tree species, including 23 evergreens and 25 deciduous - dispersed across 21 genera and 13 families. We assessed the relationship between functional traits, shade tolerance, and demographic performance at high and low light using structural equation modelling. The dimensions found corresponded to the trait spectra previously observed in the literature and were significantly related to measures of demography. However, our results support the existence of a divergence between evergreen and deciduous species in the way shade tolerance relates to the demography of species along light gradients. We show that shade tolerance can be attained through different combination of traits depending on the functional and geographical context, and thus, its utilization as a predictor of forest dynamics and species coexistence requires previous knowledge on the role it plays in the demographic performance of the species under study. The authors acknowledge Dr. Yoshida and Dr. Evans for kindly providing the SORTIE parameters for species from Japan and United Kingdom, respectively. We are also grateful to Timothy Paine and two anonymous referees for their constructive comments on an earlier version of this manuscript. This research was supported by a Juan de la Cierva Fellowship to A.A. (FJCI‐2014‐20739), a NSERC Strategic Grant to D.G. and the NSERC industrial Chair programme to C.M. Additional support came from the CERCA Programme of the Generalitat de Catalunya. The authors declare no conflict of interests.

Global climate change is already having an impact on species ranges. For species with slow demography and limited dispersal, such as trees, lags between climate change and distribution shifts are likely to increase in the future. Such lags can be of critical importance to management and biodiversity of forests, because they can result in 'extinction debts', where populations temporarily persist under unsuitable conditions, and 'colonization credits', where suitable locations are not occupied owing to slow demography and limited dispersal. Here we use a range dynamics model based on metapopulation theory to show that the distributions of 21 dominant trees in eastern North America are out of equilibrium with climate and demonstrate both extinction debt and colonization credit. Moreover, lags are more severe at northern range limits, suggesting that range contraction in response to warming temperatures will outpace expansion.

There are exponentially more species interactions than there are species - and this should entice us to be exponentially more careful when designing a data format to represent species interactions. The tradition in the analysis of species interaction networks was to store matrices, but this format is inefficient, does not offer access to the information in a modular and atomic way, and is poor in meta-data. To help research, faciltiate interaction with other biodiversity data representations, and offer a universal, unified format to represent biotic interactions, we designed mangal.io. At its core, the mangal data format specificies how various component of an interaction should be represented, and the hierarchy between them. In this presentation, we will (i) describe the original data format and explain how it was designed based on ecological principles, (ii) describe the revised data format and why it can function as the standard for biotic interaction data, and (iii) illustrate case studies based on the use of mangal.io, notably related to using AI/machine learning to infer missing biotic interactions and the macroecology of food webs

High-throughput sequencing is becoming increasingly important in microbial ecology, yet it is surprisingly under-used to generate or test biogeographic hypotheses. In this contribution, we highlight how adding these methods to the ecologist toolbox will allow the detection of new patterns, and will help our understanding of the structure and dynamics of diversity. Starting with a review of ecological questions that can be addressed, we move on to the technical and analytical issues that will benefit from an increased collaboration between different disciplines.

Understanding the impacts of species extinctions on the functioning of food webs is a challenging task because of the complexity of ecological interactions. We report the impacts of experimental species extinctions on the functioning of two food webs of freshwater and marine systems. We used a linear model to partition the variance among the multiple components of the diversity effect (linear group richness, nonlinear group richness, and identity). The identity of each functional group was the best explaining variable of ecosystem functioning for both systems. We assessed the contribution of each functional group in multifunctional space and found that, although the effect of functional group varied across ecosystem functions, some functional groups shared common effects on functions. This study is the first experimental demonstration that functional identity dominates the effects of extinctions on ecosystem functioning, suggesting that generalizations are possible despite the inherent complexity of interactions.

Adaptation to local resource availability depends on responses in growth rate and nutrient acquisition. The growth rate hypothesis (GRH) suggests that growing fast should impair competitive abilities for phosphorus and nitrogen due to high demand for biosynthesis. However, in microorganisms, size influences both growth and uptake rates, which may mask trade-offs and instead generate a positive relationship between these traits (size hypothesis, SH). Here, we evolved a gradient of maximum growth rate (μmax) from a single bacterium ancestor to test the relationship amongμmax, competitive ability for nutrients and cell size, while controlling for evolutionary history. We found a strong positive correlation betweenμmaxand competitive ability for phosphorus, associated with a trade-off betweenμmaxand cell size: strains selected for highμmaxwere smaller and better competitors for phosphorus. Our results strongly support the SH, while the trade-offs expected under GRH were not apparent. Beyond plasticity, unicellular populations can respond rapidly to selection pressure through joint evolution of their size and maximum growth rate. Our study stresses that physiological links between these traits tightly shape the evolution of competitive strategies.

Aim: Although there is a vast body of literature on the causes of variation in species composition in ecological communities, less effort has been invested in understanding how interactions between these species vary. Since interactions are crucial to the structure and functioning of ecological communities, we need to develop a better understanding of their spatial distribution. Here, we investigate whether species interactions vary more in response to different climate variables, than individual species do. Location: Eurasia. Time period: 2000s. Major taxa: Animalia. Methods: We used a measure of Local Contribution to Beta-Diversity to evaluate the compositional uniqueness of 51 host–parasite communities of rodents and their ectoparasitic fleas across Eurasia, using publicly available data. We measured uniqueness based on the species composition, and based on potential and realized biotic interactions (here, host-parasite interactions). Results: We show that species interactions vary more, across space, than species do. In particular, we show that species interactions respond to some climatic variables that have no effect on species distributions or dissimilarity. Main conclusions: Species interactions capture some degree of variation which is not apparent when looking at species occurrences only. In this system, this appeared as hosts and parasites interacting in different ways as a reponse to different environments, especially the temperature and dryness. We discuss the implications of this finding for the amount of information that should be considered when measuring community dissimilarity.

Understanding how trophic levels respond to changes in abiotic and biotic conditions is key for predicting how food webs will react to environmental perturbations. Different trophic levels may respond disproportionately to change, with lower levels more likely to react faster, as they typically consist of smaller-bodied species with higher reproductive rates. This response could cause a mismatch between trophic levels, in which predators and prey will respond differently to changing abiotic or biotic conditions. This mismatch between trophic levels could result in altered top-down and bottom-up control and changes in interaction strength. To determine the possibility of a mismatch, we conducted a reciprocal-transplant experiment involving Sarracenia purpurea food webs consisting of bacterial communities as prey and a subset of six morphologically similar protozoans as predators. We used a factorial design with four temperatures, four bacteria and protozoan biogeographic origins, replicated four times. This design allowed us to determine how predator and prey dynamics were altered by abiotic (temperature) conditions and biotic (predators paired with prey from either their local or non-local biogeographic origin) conditions. We found that prey reached higher densities in warmer temperature regardless of their temperature of origin. Conversely, predators achieved higher densities in the temperature condition and with the prey from their origin. These results confirm that predators perform better in abiotic and biotic conditions of their origin while their prey do not. This mismatch between trophic levels may be especially significant under climate change, potentially disrupting ecosystem functioning by disproportionately affecting top-down and bottom-up control.

Food webs are the backbone upon which biomass flows through ecosystems. Dynamical models of biomass can reveal how the structure of food webs is involved in many key ecosystem properties, such as persistence, stability, etc.In this contribution, we present BioEnergeticFoodWebs, an implementation of Yodzis & Innes (1992) bio-energetic model, in the high-performance computing language Julia.We illustrate how this package can be used to conduct numerical experiments in a reproducible and standard way.A reference implementation of this widely used model will ease reproducibility and comparison of results across studies.

The diversity of life and its organization in networks of interacting species has been a long-standing theoretical puzzle for ecologists. Ever since May's provocative paper challenging whether ‘large complex systems [are] stable' various hypotheses have been proposed to explain when stability should be the rule, not the exception. Spatial dynamics may be stabilizing and thus explain high community diversity, yet existing theory on spatial stabilization is limited, preventing comparisons of the role of dispersal relative to species interactions. Here we incorporate dispersal of organisms and material into stability–complexity theory. We find that stability criteria from classic theory are relaxed in direct proportion to the number of ecologically distinct patches in the meta-ecosystem. Further, we find the stabilizing effect of dispersal is maximal at intermediate intensity. Our results highlight how biodiversity can be vulnerable to factors, such as landscape fragmentation and habitat loss, that isolate local communities., The mechanisms allowing highly biodiverse ecosystems to remain stable are poorly understood. Here, Gravel and colleagues provide theoretical evidence that dispersal of organisms and material modifies species interactions and thus enables highly biodiverse communities to exist.

There is no consensus on when biotic interactions impact the range limits of species. Starting from MacArthur's use of invasibility to understand how biotic interactions influence coexistence, here we examine how biotic interactions shape species distributions. Range limits emerge from how birth, death, and movement rates vary with the environment. We clarify some basic issues revolving around niche definitions, illustrated with simple resource–consumer theory. We then highlight two different avenues for linking community theory and range theory; the first based on calculating the effects of biotic interactions on range limits across scales and landscape configurations, and the second based on aggregate measures of diffuse interactions and network strength. We conclude with suggestions for a future research agenda.

Biogeography has traditionally focused on the spatial distribution and abundance of species. Both are driven by the way species interact with one another, but also by the way these interactions vary across time and space. Here, we call for an integrated approach, adopting the view that community structure is best represented as a network of ecological interactions, and show how it translates to biogeography questions. We propose that the ecological niche should encompass the effect of the environment on species distribution (the Grinnellian dimension of the niche) and on the ecological interactions among them (the Eltonian dimension). Starting from this concept, we develop a quantitative theory to explain turnover of interactions in space and timei.e. a novel approach to interaction distribution modelling. We apply this framework to host parasite interactions across Europe and find that two aspects of the environment (temperature and precipitation) exert a strong imprint on species co-occurrence, but not on species interactions. Even where species co-occur, interaction proves to be stochastic rather than deterministic, adding to variation in realized network structure. We also find that a large majority of host-parasite pairs are never found together, thus precluding any inferences regarding their probability to interact. This first attempt to explain variation of network structure at large spatial scales opens new perspectives at the interface of species distribution modelling and community ecology.

The paired source and sink concepts are used increasingly in ecology and Earth sciences, but they have evolved in divergent directions, hampering communication across disciplines. We propose a conceptual framework that unifies existing definitions, and review their most significant consequences for the various disciplines. A general definition of the source and sink concepts that transcends disciplines is based on net flows between the components of a system: a source is a subsystem that is a net exporter of some living or non-living entities of interest, and a sink is a net importer of these entities. Sources and sinks can further be classified as conditional and unconditional, depending on the intrinsic propensity of subsystems to either produce (source) or absorb (sink) a surplus of these entities under some (conditional) or all (unconditional) conditions. The distinction between conditional and unconditional sources and sinks, however, is strongly context dependent. Sources can turn into sinks, and vice versa, when the context is changed, when systems are subject to temporal fluctuations or evolution, or when they are considered at different spatial and temporal scales. The conservation of ecosystem services requires careful consideration of the source−sink dynamics of multiple ecosystem components. Our synthesis shows that source−sink dynamics has profound consequences for our ability to understand, predict, and manage species and ecosystems in heterogeneous landscapes.

Although abiotic factors, together with dispersal and biotic interactions, are often suggested to explain the distribution of species and their abundances, species distribution models usually focus on abiotic factors only. We propose an integrative framework linking ecological theory, empirical data and statistical models to understand the distribution of species and their abundances together with the underlying community assembly dynamics. We illustrate our approach with 21 plant species in the French Alps. We show that a spatially nested modelling framework significantly improves the model’s performance and that the spatial variations of species presence–absence and abundances are predominantly explained by different factors. We also show that incorporating abiotic, dispersal and biotic factors into the same model bring new insights to our understanding of community assembly. This approach, at the crossroads between community ecology and biogeography, is a promising avenue for a better understanding of species co-existence and biodiversity distribution.

MacArthur and Wilson! s Theory of Island Biogeography (TIB) is among the most well-known process-based explanations for the distribution of species richness. It helps understand the species‐area relationship, a fundamental pattern in ecology and an essential tool for conservation. The classic TIB does not, however, account for the complex structure of ecological systems. We extend the TIB to take into account trophic interactions and derive a species-specific model for occurrence probability. We find that the properties of the regional food web influence the species‐area relationship, and that, in return, immigration and extinction dynamics affect local food web properties. We compare the accuracy of the classic TIB to our trophic TIB to predict community composition of real food webs and find strong support for our trophic extension of the TIB. Our approach provides a parsimonious explanation to species distributions and open new perspectives to integrate the complexity of ecological interactions into simple species distribution models.

The contribution of deterministic and stochastic processes to species coexistence is widely debated. With the introduction of powerful statistical techniques, we can now better characterise different sources of uncertainty when quantifying niche differentiation. The theoretical literature on the effect of stochasticity on coexistence, however, is often ignored by field ecologists because of its technical nature and difficulties in its application. In this review, we examine how different sources of variability in population dynamics contribute to coexistence. Unfortunately, few general rules emerge among the different models that have been studied to date. Nonetheless, we believe that a greater understanding is possible, based on the integration of coexistence and population extinction risk theories. There are two conditions for coexistence in the presence of environmental and demographic variability: (1) the average per capita growth rates of all coexisting species must be positive when at low densities, and (2) these growth rates must be strong enough to overcome negative random events potentially pushing densities to extinction. We propose that critical tests for species coexistence must account for niche differentiation arising from this variability and should be based explicitly on notions of stability and ecological drift.

Northern hardwoods have undergone a marked change in their dynamics, with American beech (Fagus grandifo- lia Ehrh.) increasing in abundance relative to sugar maple (Acer saccharum Marsh.). This study aims to better understand this sudden shift in recruitment dynamics. We performed an extensive analysis of the age structure, radial growth pattern, and release history on >700 saplings from 34 mature maple-beech stands of southern Quebec. We found (i) that the sapling age structures showed a progressive decrease in the establishment of maple relative to beech starting about 40 years ago, (ii) a change in the species growth hierarchy that started in the 1980s due to increasing radial growth of beech, (iii) that this growth trend is negligible for both maple and beech when we account for size and suppression status, and finally (iv) that the growth trend appears to be independent of present soil conditions. These results contrast with previous studies conducted at the adult stage that reported a growth decline for maple. We conclude that this change in recruitment dynamics is not re- lated to growth, and consequently, further studies investigating this phenomenon should concentrate on establishment and survival. Resume : La dynamique des forets de feuillus temperees a change de facon marquee avec l'augmentation de l'abondance du hetre a grandes feuilles (Fagus grandifolia Ehrh.) par rapport a celle de l'erable a sucre (Acer saccharum Marsh.). Cette etude vise a mieux comprendre ce changement soudain de dynamique du recrutement. Nous avons realise une analyse de la structure d'âge, du patron de croissance radiale et de l'historique de degagement de plus de 700 gaules provenant de 34 peu- plements matures d'erable et de hetre du sud du Quebec. Nous avons trouve (i) que la structure d'âge des gaules indiquait une diminution progressive de l'etablissement de l'erable par rapport au hetre, processus qui a commence il y a environ 40 ans, (ii) un changement de hierarchie dans la croissance des especes qui a commence dans les annees 1980 a la suite d'une hausse de croissance radiale du hetre, (iii) que cette tendance de croissance est negligeable pour l'erable et le hetre lorsqu'on tient compte de la taille et du statut d'oppression des individus, et enfin (iv) que la tendance de croissance semble indepen- dante des presentes conditions de sol. Ces resultats sont differents de ceux d'etudes anterieures realisees au stade adulte et qui rapportaient un declin de la croissance de l'erable. Nous concluons que ce changement de dynamique du recrutement n'est pas relie a la croissance et, par consequent, que les futures etudes portant sur ce phenomene devraient se concentrer sur l'etablissement et la survie. (Traduit par la Redaction)

Classical approaches to food webs focus on patterns and processes occurring at the community level rather than at the broader ecosystem scale, and often ignore spatial aspects of the dynamics. However, recent research suggests that spatial processes influence both food web and ecosystem dynamics, and has led to the idea of 'metaecosystems'. However, these processes have been tackled separately by 'food web metacommunity' ecology, which focuses on the movement of traits, and 'landscape ecosystem' ecology, which focuses on the movement of materials among ecosystems. Here, we argue that this conceptual gap must be bridged to fully understand ecosystem dynamics because many natural cases demonstrate the existence of interactions between the movements of traits and materials. This unification of concepts can be achieved under the metaecosystem framework, and we present two models that highlight how this framework yields novel insights. We then discuss patches, limiting factors and spatial explicitness as key issues to advance metaecosystem theory. We point out future avenues for research on metaecosystem theory and their potential for application to biological conservation.

We present a theory extending the source-sink concept with an ecosystem perspective. We analyze a model for meta-ecosystem dynamics in a heterogeneous environment to study how the spatial flows of materials such as inorganic nutrients and nutrients sequestered into producers, herbivores, and detritus affect the community dynamics. We show that spatial flows of an inorganic nutrient (direct nutrient flow) and organic matter (indirect nutrient flow) through detritus, producer, or herbivore compartments can reverse the source-sink dynamics of a local ecosystem. More precisely, the balance between such direct and indirect nutrient flows determines the net direction of nutrient flows between two ecosystems of contrasted productivities. It allows a sink to turn into a source and vice versa. This effect of nutrient flows on source and sink dynamics is robust to the ecosystem structure (with and without herbivores) and to specific ecosystem compartments contributing to nutrient flows (primary producers, herbivores, or detritus). Ecosystems in distinct localities thus interact together with the structure at one place influencing that of the other. In meta-ecosystems, the source-sink dynamics of an organism is not only constrained by its dispersal from the source to the sink, but also by the fertility and community composition in the neighborhood responsible for spatial flows of nutrients and energy. The meta-ecosystem perspective provides a powerful theoretical framework to address novel questions in spatial ecosystem ecology.

With ongoing global change, shifts in the ranges of non-native species and resulting novel communities can modify biotic interactions and ecosystem processes. We hypothesized that traits and not biogeographic origin of novel plant communities will determine community structure of organisms that depend on plants for habitat or as a food resource. We tested the functional redundancy of novel tree communities by verifying if six pairs of congeneric European and North American tree species bearing similar leaf litter traits resulted in similar ecological filters influencing the assembly of springtail (Collembola) communities at two sites. Litter biogeographic origin (native versus non-native) did not influence springtail community structure, but litter genus, which generally reflected trait differences, did. Our empirical evidence suggests that a functional trait approach may be indeed as relevant as, and complementary to, studying biogeographic origin to understand the ecological consequences of non-native tree species in soils of novel forest ecosystems.

Th e belief that canopy gaps are important for the maintenance of tree species diversity appears to be widespread, but there have been no formal theoretical models to assess under what conditions gap phase processes allow coexistence. Much of the empirical research on niche diff erentiation in response to gaps has focused on evidence for an interspecifi c tradeoff between low light survival and high light growth. Th e objectives of this study are fi rst to distinguish the possible mechanisms allowing coexistence based on this tradeoff , and second, to explore their limitations. We present a theory of forest dynamics driven by small-scale disturbances as a special case of the theory of coexistence in variable environments. We demonstrate that temporal and spatial heterogeneity in light conditions that results from canopy gaps can allow stable coexistence as a result of three previously documented general mechanisms: ‘relative non-linearity’, ‘the successional niche’ and the ‘storage eff ect’. We fi nd that temporal fl uctuations in light availability alone allow the stable coexistence of only two species. Spatial variation in disturbance synchronicity and intensity allows three species to coexist in a narrow parameter space. Th e rate of extinction is, however, extremely slow and there is transient coexistence of a larger number of species for a long period of time. We conclude that while the low light survival/high light growth tradeoff may be ubiquitous in forest tree species, it is unlikely to function as an important mechanism for the stable coexistence of several tree species.

Large-scale synchronous variations in community dynamics are well documented for a vast array of organisms, but are considerably less understood for forest trees. Because of temporal variations in canopy gap dynamics, forest communities-even old-growth ones-are never at equilibrium at the stand scale. This paucity of equilibrium may also be true at the regional scale. Our objectives were to determine (1) if nonequilibrium dynamics caused by temporal variations in the formation of canopy gaps are regionally synchronized, and (2) if spatiotemporal variations in canopy gap formation affect the relative abundance of tree species in the understory. We examined these questions by analyzing variations in the suppression and release history of Acer saccharum Marsh. and Fagus grandifolia Ehrh. from 481 growth series of understory saplings taken from 34 mature stands. We observed that (1) the proportion of stems in release as a function of time exhibited a U-shaped pattern over the last 35 years, with the lowest levels occurring during 1975-1985, and that (2) the response to this in terms of species composition was that A. saccharum became more abundant at sites that had the highest proportion of stems in release during 1975-1985. We concluded that the understory dynamics, typically thought of as a stand-scale process, may be regionally synchronized.

Understanding coexistence of highly shade-tolerant tree species is a longstanding challenge for forest ecologists. A conceptual model for the coexistence of sugar maple (Acer saccharum) and American beech (Fagus grandibfolia) has been proposed, based on a low-light survival/high-light growth trade-off, which interacts with soil fertility and small-scale spatiotemporal variation in the environment. In this study, we first tested whether the spatial distribution of seedlings and saplings can be predicted by the spatiotemporal variability of light availability and soil fertility, and second, the manner in which the process of environmental filtering changes with regeneration size. We evaluate the support for this hypothesis relative to the one for a neutral model, i.e., for seed rain density predicted from the distribution of adult trees. To do so, we performed intensive sampling over 86 quadrats (5 x 5 m) in a 0.24-ha plot in a mature maple-beech community in Quebec, Canada. Maple and beech abundance, soil characteristics, light availability, and growth history (used as a proxy for spatiotemporal variation in light availability) were finely measured to model variation in sapling composition across different size classes. Results indicate that the variables selected to model species distribution do effectively change with size, but not as predicted by the conceptual model. Our results show that variability in the environment is not sufficient to differentiate these species' distributions in space. Although species differ in their spatial distribution in the small size classes, they tend to correlate at the larger size class in which recruitment occurs. Overall, the results are not supportive of a model of coexistence based on small-scale variations in the environment. We propose that, at the scale of a local stand, the lack of fit of the model could result from the high similarity of species in the range of environmental conditions encountered, and we suggest that coexistence would be stable only at larger spatial scales at which variability in the environment is greater.

The study of species co-occurrences has been central in community ecology since the foundation of the discipline. Co-occurrence data are, nevertheless, a neglected source of information to model species distributions and biogeographers are still debating about the impact of biotic interactions on species distributions across geographical scales. We argue that a theory of species co-occurrence in ecological networks is needed to better inform interpretation of co-occurrence data, to formulate hypotheses for different community assembly mechanisms, and to extend the analysis of species distributions currently focused on the relationship between occurrences and abiotic factors. The main objective of this paper is to provide the first building blocks of a general theory for species co-occurrences. We formalize the problem with definitions of the different probabilities that are studied in the context of co-occurrence analyses. We analyze three species interactions modules and conduct multi-species simulations in order to document five principles influencing the associations between species within an ecological network: (i) direct interactions impact pairwise co-occurrence, (ii) indirect interactions impact pairwise co-occurrence, (iii) pairwise co-occurrence rarely are symmetric, (iv) the strength of an association decreases with the length of the shortest path between two species, and (v) the strength of an association decreases with the number of interactions a species is experiencing. Our analyses reveal the difficulty of the interpretation of species interactions from co-occurrence data. We discuss whether the inference of the structure of interaction networks is feasible from co-occurrence data. We also argue that species distributions models could benefit from incorporating conditional probabilities of interactions within the models as an attempt to take into account the contribution of biotic interactions to shaping individual distributions of species.

In forest communities, species coexistence can be favoured by disturbance-related variations in light regime coupled with rank reversal in species performance. The objective of this study was to determine if a major canopy disturbance, resulting from an ice storm, would favour the coexistence of sugar maple (Acer saccharum) and beech (Fagus grandifolia) in an old-growth forest located near the northern limit of the species' range. The growth, density and frequency of occurrence of understorey stems were evaluated 7 years after the ice storm and compared with pre-disturbance values to determine if sugar maple, a slightly less shade-tolerant species, would be favoured over beech. Although height and radial growth increased three- to five-fold, and > 70% of the 5-10 cm d.b.h. stems showed a release, sugar maple did not benefit more from the opening of the canopy than beech. The inability of sugar maple to outgrow beech might be related to the high proportion of beech root sprouts at our site, suggesting that the potential for the disturbancemediated mechanism to slow the competitive exclusion of maple might decrease as the importance of vegetative reproduction increases in beech. Prior to the disturbance, sugar maple was more abundant and occurred in a larger proportion of the plots among small size classes, while beech dominated in the larger size classes. Although some increases in the density of both species were detected after the disturbance, the general trends of relative abundance and distribution of the species were not modified significantly. Our results do not indicate that a single canopy disturbance such as the major 1998 ice storm significantly favoured sugar maple over beech. When a disturbance opens the canopy, competition for light in gaps may tend to maintain or reinforce a pre-existing hierarchy instead of reversing it, especially when interspecific differences in postdisturbance growth are small or absent, as in this study. This study shows that the dynamics of sugar maple - beech communities are more complex than previously envisaged and that revised models should incorporate additional factors (e.g. vegetative reproduction) that might also play an important role in regulating community dynamics.

We evaluated the effects of a major ice storm on understory light conditions (%PPFD, photosynthetic photon flux density) in an old-growth Acer-Fagus forest in Quebec, based on pre- and post-disturbance light measurements taken until the seventh growing season after the event (which occurred in January 1998). Before the ice storm, most microsites received between 2 and 4%PPFD. Following the ice storm, the stand-level mean %PPFD increased four- to five-fold, ranging from 13.8 to 20.5%PPFD, from 0.3 to 4 m aboveground. Despite its magnitude, the post-ice storm increase in light transmission was short-lived. By 1999 (2-year+), the mean light levels had decreased by half, and recovery to pre-storm conditions occurred within 3-7 years, depending on height. The decrease in light transmission during the post-disturbance years followed an inverse J-shape trend, indicating more dynamic changes early after disturbance. By 2004 (7-year+), light levels at ≤2 m had become slightly but significantly lower than before the ice storm, with most microsites receiving

International audience; In analogy to the species-area relationship (SAR), one of the few laws in ecology, the phylogenetic diversity-area relationship (PDAR) describes the tendency of phylogenetic diversity (PD) to increase with area. Although investigating PDAR has the potential to unravel the underlying processes shaping assemblages across spatial scales and to predict PD loss through habitat reduction, it has been little investigated so far. Focusing on PD has noticeable advantages compared to species richness (SR), since PD also gives insights on processes such as speciation/extinction, assembly rules and ecosystem functioning. Here we investigate the universality and pervasiveness of the PDAR at continental scale using terrestrial mammals as study case. We define the relative robustness of PD (compared to SR) to habitat loss as the area between the standardized PDAR and standardized SAR (i.e., standardized by the diversity of the largest spatial window) divided by the area under the standardized SAR only. This metric quantifies the relative increase of PD robustness compared to SR robustness. We show that PD robustness is higher than SR robustness but that it varies among continents. We further use a null model approach to disentangle the relative effect of phylogenetic tree shape and nonrandom spatial distribution of evolutionary history on the PDAR. We find that, for most spatial scales and for all continents except Eurasia, PDARs are not different from expected by a model using only the observed SAR and the shape of the phylogenetic tree at continental scale. Interestingly, we detect a strong phylogenetic structure of the Eurasian PDAR that can be predicted by a model that specifically account for a finer biogeographical delineation of this continent. In conclusion, the relative robustness of PD to habitat loss compared to species richness is determined by the phylogenetic tree shape but also depends on the spatial structure of PD.

Species interactions, ranging from antagonisms to mutualisms, form the architecture of biodiversity and determine ecosystem functioning. Understanding the rules responsible for who interacts with whom, as well as the functional consequences of these interspecific interactions, is central to predict community dynamics and stability. Species traits sensu lato may affect different ecological processes by determining species interactions through a two-step process. First, ecological and life-history traits govern species distributions and abundance, and hence determine species co-occurrence and the potential for species to interact. Secondly, morphological or physiological traits between co-occurring potential interaction partners should match for the realization of an interaction. Here, we review recent advances on predicting interactions from species co-occurrence and develop a probabilistic model for inferring trait matching. The models proposed here integrate both neutral and trait-matching constraints, while using only information about known interactions, thereby overcoming problems originating from undersampling of rare interactions (i.e. missing links). They can easily accommodate qualitative or quantitative data and can incorporate trait variation within species, such as values that vary along developmental stages or environmental gradients. We use three case studies to show that the proposed models can detect strong trait matching (e.g. predator‿prey system), relaxed trait matching (e.g. herbivore‿plant system) and barrier trait matching (e.g. plant‿pollinator systems). Only by elucidating which species traits are important in each process (i.e. in determining interaction establishment and frequency), we can advance in explaining how species interact and the consequences of these interactions for ecosystem functioning. A lay summary is available for this article

Trawling has been reported worldwide to alter seabed structure, and thus benthic habitats and ecosystems. Usually, a decrease in species richness and biomass is observed, and community structure is modified towards more opportunistic species. The Gulf of St Lawrence (Canada) has been intensely exploited since the 17th century, including net, longline, dredge and trawl fishing activities. Recently, the collapse of groundfish stocks induced a shift in fishing practices toward shrimp trawling, which is currently considered a sustainable fishing activity in the region. However, no long-term study has evaluated the potential effects of trawling disturbances on benthic mega-invertebrates. We investigated whether shrimp trawling had long- (ca. 20 years), mid- (ca. 10 years), and short-term (ca. 4 years) impacts on benthic mega-invertebrate taxa richness, biomass, and community structure. Scientific and fishery trawling data analyses showed that no significant long-, mid-, or short-term effect was detected on taxa richness. Significant but weak effects on biomass and community structure were detected at the mesoscale, i.e. at the scale of fishing grounds. In this long-exploited ecosystem, we suggest that a critical level of disturbance was attained by the first gear passages, which occurred decades ago and had irreversible impacts on the seabed by removing vulnerable taxa and structures that provided three-dimensional habitats. It is likely that benthic communities have subsequently reached a disturbed state of equilibrium on which current trawling disturbance has limited or no further impacts.

The increased availability of both open ecological data, and software to interact with it, allows the fast collection and integration of information at all spatial and taxonomic scales. This offers the opportunity to address macroecological questions in a cost‐effective way. In this contribution, we illustrate this approach by forecasting the structure of a stream food web at the global scale. In so doing, we highlight the most salient issues needing to be addressed before this approach can be used with a high degree of confidence., This work was funded in part through a grant from the Canadian Inst. of Ecology and Evolution. TP was funded by a Starting grant from the Univ. de Montréal, and a NSERC Discovery Grant. SL was funded by a NSERC Discovery Grant. DBS acknowledges a Marsden Fund Fast‐Start grant (UOC‐1101) and Rutherford Discovery Fellowship, both administered by the Royal Society of New Zealand.

Antagonistic interactions such as competition and predation shape the structure and dynamics of ecological communities. Their combined effects can affect the species richness within a particular trophic level. Despite theory linking the complementarity of interactions across trophic levels and ecosystem functioning, there is a shortage of empirical tests of such predictions. We present an experimental investigation of these combined effects within a bacteria-phage interaction network. We measured the biomass yield of combinations of bacterial strains under increasing levels of bacteriophage richness. Our results show an increasing impact of phage on bacteria with increasing phage diversity. In contrast, no combination of phages significantly changed the overall productivity of bacterial mixed cultures when compared with expectations based on bacterial monocultures. Finally, we found that the addition of phages decreases the realized niche overlap among pair of bacterial species with the greatest reduction occurring when all phages were present. Our results show that the productivity of this system is the results from the combined effects of exploitative (shared resources between bacteria) and apparent (shared phages between bacteria) competition.

Inferring biotic interactions from functional, phylogenetic and geographical proxies remains one great challenge in ecology. We propose a conceptual framework to infer the backbone of biotic interaction networks within regional species pools. First, interacting groups are identified to order links and remove forbidden interactions between species. Second, additional links are removed by examination of the geographical context in which species co-occur. Third, hypotheses are proposed to establish interaction probabilities between species. We illustrate the framework using published food-webs in terrestrial and marine systems. We conclude that preliminary descriptions of the web of life can be made by careful integration of data with theory., M.G.M. also acknowledges support by a Marie Curie Intra-European Fellowship within the 7th European Commission Framework Programme (FORECOMM).

1. There is a growing realization among community ecologists that interactions between species vary in space and time. Yet, our current numerical framework to analyze the structure of interactions, largely based on graph-theoretical approaches, is unsuited to this type of data. Since the variation of species interactions holds much information, there is a need to develop new metrics to exploit it. 2. We present analytical expressions of key network metrics, using a probabilistic framework. Our approach is based on modeling each interaction as a Bernoulli event, and using basic calculus to express the expected value, and when mathematically tractable, its variance. We provide a free and open-source implementation of these measures. 3. We show that our approach allows to overcome limitations of both neglecting the variation of interactions (over-estimation of rare events) and using simulations (extremely high computational demand). We present a few case studies that highlight how these measures can be used. 4. We conclude this contribution by discussing how the sampling and data representation of ecological network can be adapted to better allow the application of a fully probabilistic numerical framework.

Introduced top predators have the potential to disrupt community dynamics when prey species are naive to predation. The impact of introduced predators may also vary depending on the stage of community development. Early-succession communities are likely to have small-bodied and fast-growing species, but are not necessarily good at defending against predators. In contrast, late-succession communities are typically composed of larger-bodied species that are more predator resistant relative to small-bodied species. Yet, these aspects are greatly neglected in invasion studies. We therefore tested the effect of top predator presence on early- and late-succession communities that were either naive or non-naive to top predators. We used the aquatic community held within the leaves of Sarracenia purpurea. In North America, communities have experienced the S. purpurea top predator and are therefore non-naive. In Europe, this predator is not present and its niche has not been filled, making these communities top-predator naive. We collected early- and late-succession communities from two non-naive and two naive sites, which are climatically similar. We then conducted a common-garden experiment, with and without the presence of the top predator, in which we recorded changes in community composition, body size spectra, bacterial density, and respiration. We found that the top predator had no statistical effect on global measures of community structure and functioning. However, it significantly altered protist composition, but only in naive, early-succession communities, highlighting that the state of community development is important for understanding the impact of invasion.

Claude Bernard (Bernard 1864)wrote that “art is me; science is us”. his sentence has two meanings. First, the altruism of scientists is worth more to Bernard than the self-indulgence of mid-nineteenth century Parisian art scene. Second, and we will keep this one in mind, creativity and insights come from individuals, but validation and rigour are reached through collective eoorts, cross-validation, and peerage. Given enough time, the conclusions reached and validated by the eoorts of many will take prominence over individualities, and this (as far as Bernard is concerned), is what science is about. With the technology available to a modern scientist, one should expect that the dissolution of me would be accelerated, and that several scientists should be able to cast a critical eye on data, and use this collective eoort to draw robust conclusions.

Ongoing and predicted global change makes understanding and predicting species' range shifts an urgent scientific priority. Here, we provide a synthetic perspective on the so far poorly understood effects of interspecific interactions on range expansion rates. We present theoretical foundations for how interspecific interactions may modulate range expansion rates, consider examples from empirical studies of biological invasions and natural range expansions as well as process-based simulations, and discuss how interspecific interactions can be more broadly represented in process-based, spatiotemporally explicit range forecasts. Theory tells us that interspecific interactions affect expansion rates via alteration of local population growth rates and spatial displacement rates, but also via effects on other demographic parameters. The best empirical evidence for interspecific effects on expansion rates comes from studies of biological invasions. Notably, invasion studies indicate that competitive dominance and release from specialized enemies can enhance expansion rates. Studies of natural range expansions especially point to the potential for competition from resident species to reduce expansion rates. Overall, it is clear that interspecific interactions may have important consequences for range dynamics, but also that their effects have received too little attention to robustly generalize on their importance. We then discuss how interspecific interactions effects can be more widely incorporated in dynamic modeling of range expansions. Importantly, models must describe spatiotemporal variation in both local population dynamics and dispersal. Finally, we derive the following guidelines for when it is particularly important to explicitly represent interspecific interactions in dynamic range expansion forecasts: if most interacting species show correlated spatial or temporal trends in their effects on the target species, if the number of interacting species is low, and if the abundance of one or more strongly interacting species is not closely linked to the abundance of the target species., Ecography, 37 (12), ISSN:0906-7590, ISSN:1600-0587

© 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd/CNRS. The study of islands as model systems has played an important role in the development of evolutionary and ecological theory. The 50th anniversary of MacArthur and Wilson's (December 1963) article, 'An equilibrium theory of insular zoogeography', was a recent milestone for this theme. Since 1963, island systems have provided new insights into the formation of ecological communities. Here, building on such developments, we highlight prospects for research on islands to improve our understanding of the ecology and evolution of communities in general. Throughout, we emphasise how attributes of islands combine to provide unusual research opportunities, the implications of which stretch far beyond islands. Molecular tools and increasing data acquisition now permit re-assessment of some fundamental issues that interested MacArthur and Wilson. These include the formation of ecological networks, species abundance distributions, and the contribution of evolution to community assembly. We also extend our prospects to other fields of ecology and evolution - understanding ecosystem functioning, speciation and diversification - frequently employing assets of oceanic islands in inferring the geographic area within which evolution has occurred, and potential barriers to gene flow. Although island-based theory is continually being enriched, incorporating non-equilibrium dynamics is identified as a major challenge for the future., This work was supported by the FRB (Fondation pour la Recherche sur la Biodiversite), through its Centre for Synthesis and Analysis of Biodiversity (CESAB), and the ‘Laboratoire d’Excellence’ TULIP (ANR-10-LABX- 41; ANR-11-IDEX-0002-02). BHW acknowledges funding from the EU Seventh Framework Programme under grant 263958 (RUN-Emerge) and 267243 (Plant Fellows).

Forest dynamics are highly dimensional phenomena that are poorly understood theoretically. Modeling these dynamics is data-intensive and requires repeated measurements taken with a consistent methodology. Forest inventory datasets offer unprecedented opportunities to model these dynamics, but they are analytically challenging due to high dimensionality and sampling irregularities across years. We develop a methodology for predicting forest stand dynamics using such datasets. Our methodology involves the following steps: 1) computing stand level characteristics from individual tree measurements, 2) reducing the characteristic dimensionality through analyses of their correlations, 3) parameterizing transition matrices for each uncorrelated dimension using Gibbs sampling, and 4) deriving predictions of forest developments at different timescales. Applying our methodology to a forest inventory database from Quebec, Canada, we discovered that four uncorrelated dimensions were required to describe the stand structure: the biomass, biodiversity, shade tolerance index and stand age. We were able to successfully estimate transition matrices for each of these dimensions. The model predicted substantial short-term increases in biomass and longer-term increases in the average age of trees, biodiversity, and shade intolerant species. Using highly dimensional and irregularly sampled forest inventory data, our original data-intensive methodology provides both descriptions of the short-term dynamics as well as predictions of forest development on a longer timescale. This method can be applied in other contexts such as conservation and silviculture, and can be delivered as an efficient tool for sustainable forest management.

International audience; Significant progress has been made in our understanding of species-level responses to climate change, but upscaling to entire ecosystems remains a challenge. This task is particularly urgent in the Arctic, where global warming is most pronounced. Here we report the results of an international collaboration on the direct and indirect effects of climate on the functioning of Arctic terrestrial ecosystems. Our data from seven terrestrial food webs spread along a wide range of latitudes (∼1,500 km) and climates (Δ mean July temperature = 8.5 °C) across the circumpolar world show the effects of climate on tundra primary production, food-web structure and species interaction strength. The intensity of predation on lower trophic levels increased significantly with temperature, at approximately 4.5% per °C. Temperature also affected trophic interactions through an indirect effect on food-web structure (that is, diversity and number of interactions). Herbivore body size was a major determinant of predator–prey interactions, as interaction strength was positively related to the predator–prey size ratio, with large herbivores mostly escaping predation. There is potential for climate warming to cause a switch from bottom-up to top-down regulation of herbivores. These results are critical to resolving the debate on the regulation of tundra and other terrestrial ecosystems exposed to global change.

The study of ecological networks is severely limited by (i) the difficulty to access data, (ii) the lack of a standardized way to link meta-data with interactions, and (iii) the disparity of formats in which ecological networks themselves are represented. To overcome these limitations, we conceived a data specification for ecological networks. We implemented a database respecting this standard, and released a R package ( `rmangal`) allowing users to programmatically access, curate, and deposit data on ecological interactions. In this article, we show how these tools, in conjunctions with other frameworks for the programmatic manipulation of open ecological data, streamlines the analysis process, and improves eplicability and reproducibility of ecological networks studies.

Community ecology is tasked with the considerable challenge of predicting the structure, and properties, of emerging ecosystems. It requires the ability to understand how and why species interact, as this will allow the development of mechanism-based predictive models, and as such to better characterize how ecological mechanisms act locally on the existence of inter-specific interactions. Here we argue that the current conceptualization of species interaction networks is ill-suited for this task. Instead, we propose that future research must start to account for the intrinsic variability of species interactions, then scale up from here onto complex networks. This can be accomplished simply by recognizing that there exists intra-specific variability, in traits or properties related to the establishment of species interactions. By shifting the scale towards population-based processes, we show that this new approach will improve our predictive ability and mechanistic understanding of how species interact over large spatial or temporal scales. Synthesis Although species interactions are the backbone of ecological communities, we have little insights on how (and why) they vary through space and time. In this article, we build on existing empirical literature to show that the same species may happen to interact in different ways when their local abundances vary, their trait distribution changes, or when the environment affects either of these factors. We discuss how these findings can be integrated in existing frameworks for the analysis and simulation of species interactions.

The paradox of enrichment has been studied almost exclusively within communities or metacommunities, without explicit nutrient dynamics. Yet local recycling of materials from enriched ecosystems may affect the stability of connected ecosystems. Here we study the effect of nutrient, detritus, producer, and consumer spatial flows-combined with changes in regional enrichment-on the stability of a metaecosystem model. We considered both spatially homogeneous and heterogeneous enrichment. We found that nutrient and detritus spatial flows are destabilizing, whereas producer or consumer spatial flows are either neutral or stabilizing. We noticed that detritus spatial flows have only a weak impact on stability. Our study reveals that heterogeneity no longer stabilizes well-connected systems when accounting for explicit representation of nutrient dynamics. We also found that intermediate consumer diffusion could lead to multiple equilibria in strongly enriched metaecosystems. Stability can emerge from a top-down control allowing the storage of materials into inorganic form, a mechanism never documented before. In conclusion, local enrichment can be stabilized if spatial flows are strong enough to efficiently redistribute the local excess of enrichment to unfertile ecosystems. However, high regional enrichment can be dampened only by intermediate consumer diffusion rates.

[Departement_IRSTEA]Territoires [TR1_IRSTEA]SEDYVIN; Hutchinson defined species' realized niche as the set of environmental conditions in which populations can persist in the presence of competitors. In terms of demography, the realized niche corresponds to the environments where the intrinsic growth rate (r) of populations is positive. Observed species occurrences should reflect the realized niche when additional processes like dispersal and local extinction lags do not have overwhelming effects. Despite the foundational nature of these ideas, quantitative assessments of the relationship between range-wide demographic performance and occurrence probability have not been made. This assessment is needed both to improve our conceptual understanding of species' niches and ranges and to develop reliable mechanistic models of species geographic distributions that incorporate demography and species interactions. The objective of this study is to analyse how demographic parameters (intrinsic growth rate r and carrying capacity K) and population density (N) relate to occurrence probability (P-occ). We hypothesized that these relationships vary with species' competitive ability. Demographic parameters, density, and occurrence probability were estimated for 108 tree species from four temperate forest inventory surveys (Quebec, western USA, France and Switzerland). We used published information of shade tolerance as indicators of light competition strategy, assuming that high tolerance denotes high competitive capacity in stable forest environments. Interestingly, relationships between demographic parameters and occurrence probability did not vary substantially across degrees of shade tolerance and regions. Although they were influenced by the uncertainty in the estimation of the demographic parameters, we found that r was generally negatively correlated with P-occ, while N, and for most regions K, was generally positively correlated with P-occ. Thus, in temperate forest trees the regions of highest occurrence probability are those with high densities but slow intrinsic population growth rates. The uncertain relationships between demography and occurrence probability suggests caution when linking species distribution and demographic models.

Dynamic vegetation models (DVMs) follow a process‐based approach to simulate plant population demography, and have been used to address questions about disturbances, plant succession, community composition, and provisioning of ecosystem services under climate change scenarios. Despite their potential, they have seldom been used for studying species range dynamics explicitly. In this perspective paper, we make the case that DVMs should be used to this end and can improve our understanding of the factors that influence species range expansions and contractions. We review the benefits of using process‐based, dynamic models, emphasizing how DVMs can be applied specifically to questions about species range dynamics. Subsequently, we provide a critical evaluation of some of the limitations and trade‐offs associated with DVMs, and we use those to guide our discussions about future model development. This includes a discussion on which processes are lacking, specifically a mechanistic representation of dispersal, inclusion of the seedling stage, trait variability, and a dynamic representation of reproduction. We also discuss upscaling techniques that offer promising solutions for being able to run these models efficiently over large spatial extents. Our aim is to provide directions for future research efforts and to illustrate the value of the DVM approach. ISSN:0906-7590 ISSN:1600-0587

International audience; Species–area (SAR) and endemics–area (EAR) relationships are amongst the most common methods used to forecast species loss resulting from habitat loss. One critical, albeit often ignored, limitation of these area‐based estimates is their disregard of the ecological context that shapes species distributions. In this study, we estimate species loss using a spatially explicit mechanistic simulation model to evaluate three important aspects of ecological context: coexistence mechanisms (e.g. species sorting, competition–colonization tradeoffs and neutral dynamics), spatial distribution of environmental conditions, and spatial pattern of habitat loss. We found that 1) area‐based estimates of extinctions are sensitive to coexistence mechanisms as well as to the pattern of environmental heterogeneity; 2) there is a strong interaction between coexistence mechanisms and the pattern of habitat loss; 3) SARs always yield higher estimates of species loss than do EARs; and 4) SARs and EARs consistently underestimate the realized species loss. Our results highlight the need to integrate ecological mechanisms in area‐estimates of species loss.