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Physics‐based earthquake simulators have been developed to overcome the relatively short duration and incompleteness of historical earthquake and paleoseismic records, respectively. These simulators have the potential to be a useful addition to seismic hazard assessment as they produce millions of synthetic earthquakes over thousands to millions of years using predefined fault geometries and slip rates. Due to the sparsity of fault data and the computational expense of the modeling, it is common to simplify earthquake simulator input parameters. Fault surfaces are typically characterized by simplified mapped traces and constant dip with depth, with slip rates that are often assumed to be uniform over the fault plane. This study uses the well‐defined 3D geometry of an active normal fault in offshore Aotearoa New Zealand, the Cape Egmont Fault, to demonstrate the impact of using nonuniform slip rates and nonplanar fault geometries on the resulting synthetic earthquakes from the earthquake simulator RSQSim. Adopting variable slip rates that decrease to zero along the fault tipline (rather than uniform slip rates) reduces unrealistically high nucleation rates of seismicity along fault edges. Introduction of complex 3D fault geometries, including fault segmentation and bends on kilometer scales, and variable slip rates produces less characteristic earthquake populations, increasing the number of M6‐7 moderate‐large magnitude events. Incorporation of variable fault geometries and slip rates in physics‐based simulators may modify the seismic hazards estimated from synthetic earthquake catalogs. Plain Language Summary: Earthquake simulators are used to study and anticipate earthquakes. These simulators produce millions of synthetic earthquakes over thousands to millions of years using predefined fault properties. We use a well‐defined active normal fault in offshore Aotearoa New Zealand, to examine the impact of nonuniformly distributed fault slip rates and nonplanar fault geometries on the resulting synthetic earthquake catalogs. We show that adopting variable fault slip rates, with a gradual decrease in slip rate toward fault‐surface edges, reduces the unrealistic occurrence of high concentrations of earthquakes along the fault tip line. The study also shows that utilization of complex 3D fault geometries together with variable slip rates produces populations of earthquakes in a less predictable manner, increasing the number of moderate to large magnitude events. Therefore, details of the input fault geometries and slip rate distributions can significantly affect the resulting synthetic earthquake catalogs from physics‐based earthquake simulators with significant implications for seismic hazard applications. Key Points: Variable, rather than constant, slip rates reduce high seismicity rates along the fault edges and can improve the depth distributions of eventsIntroduction of complex 3D fault geometries produces less characteristic earthquake populationsVariable fault geometries and slip rates in physics‐based simulators can improve the synthetic earthquake catalogs [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In regions with slow‐moving faults, the incompleteness of earthquake and fault data complicates the study of seismic hazard. The instrumental and historical seismic catalogs cover a short period compared with the long‐time interval between major events. Paleoseismic evidence allows us to increase the time frame of actual observations, but data is still scarce and imprecise. Physics‐based earthquake simulations overcome the limitations of actual earthquake catalogs and generate long‐term synthetic seismicity. The RSQSim earthquake simulator used in our study reproduces the earthquake physical processes based on a 3D fault model that contains the kinematics, the long‐term slip rates and the rate‐and‐state friction properties of the main seismogenic sources of a region. The application of earthquake simulations to the Eastern Betic Shear Zone, a slow fault system at southeastern Spain, allows the compilation of 100 kyr‐synthetic catalogs of MW > 4.0 events. Multisection earthquakes and complete ruptures of some faults in this region, preferentially on strike‐slip dominant ruptures, are possible according to our simulations. The largest MW > 6.5 events are likely as a result of jumping ruptures between the Carboneras and the Palomares faults, with recurrence times of < 20,000 years; and less frequently between the Alhama de Murcia and the Los Tollos faults. A great variability of interevent times is observed between successive synthetic seismic cycles, in addition to the occurrence of complex co‐ruptures between faults. Consequently, the occurrence of larger earthquakes, even MW ≥ 7.0, cannot be ruled out, contrasting with the low to moderate magnitudes recorded in the instrumental and historical earthquake catalog. Key Points: The RSQSim earthquake simulator reproduces a realistic 100 kyr synthetic catalog of MW > 4.5 events based on a slow fault systemLarge earthquakes, even MW ≥ 7.0, and complex multifault ruptures are possible despite their nonoccurrence in historical timesThe synthetic seismic cycles have variable interseismic time periods, so the different time frames should be considered in hazard studies [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In recent years, much of the research in geotechnical earthquake engineering has focused on liquefaction of loose, saturated sands and silts. However, the dynamic behaviour of soft, clayey soils and their interaction with pile foundations during the earthquakes have received relatively little attention. In this study, an attempt is made to investigate the dynamic behaviour of soft clay and its interaction with pile foundations during earthquakes using high gravity centrifuge testing. A model single pile and two sets of 3 × 1 row model pile groups with different pile spacing were embedded in soft kaolin clay and tested under the action of model earthquakes at 50 times the earth's gravity. The strength and stiffness of clay were evaluated using a T-bar test and an air hammer device respectively. The focus of this research is to investigate the dynamic response of friction piles in soft clay. However, this depends on the dynamic response of the soft clay layer around the pile. To this end, one-dimensional ground response analysis was performed using DEEPSOIL software to emphasise the importance of non-linear analysis in characterising the seismic behaviour of soft clays. It will be shown that clay response depends both on the earthquake intensity and the shear strength and stiffness of the clay layer. This has a direct bearing on the response of single piles and pile groups, with larger amplification occurring for small intensity earthquakes and attenuation occurring for stronger earthquakes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Experimental setup for studying the behavior of structures are large and require high investment costs. However, comparing theoretical results to the dynamic behavior of structures using scaled structure models is a preferred research method in civil engineering. Therefore, a low-cost shake table named SARSAR with Arduino microcontroller boards has been developed for earthquake simulations. The horizontal components of the acceleration records obtained from past earthquakes are scaled and transferred to the shake table by developing software programs using an Arduino DUE board. For verification, the response of the table is measured by a data acquisition unit based on an Arduino MEGA board. The seismic ground motion along the horizontal axis is transferred to the shake table via a linear actuator system built with a ball screw assembly, linear bearings and a stepper motor. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper proposes a novel approach to deal with modeling uncertainty when updating mechanics-based nonlinear finite element (FE) models. In this framework, a dual adaptive filtering approach is adopted, where the Unscented Kalman filter (UKF) is used to estimate the unknown parameters of the nonlinear FE model and a linear Kalman filter (KF) is employed to estimate the diagonal terms of the covariance matrix of the simulation error vector based on a covariance-matching technique. Numerically simulated response data of a two-dimensional three-story three-bay steel frame structure with eight unknown material model parameters subjected to unidirectional horizontal seismic excitation is used to illustrate and validate the proposed methodology. Geometry, inertia properties, gravity loads, and damping properties are considered as sources of modeling uncertainty and different levels and combinations of them are analyzed. The results of the validation studies show that the proposed approach significantly outperforms the parameter-only estimation approach widely investigated and used in the literature. Thus, a more robust and comprehensive identification of structural damage is achieved when using the proposed approach. A different input motion is then considered to verify the prediction capabilities of the proposed methodology by using the FE model updated by the parameter estimation results obtained. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The paper presents a new dual transducer and its associated control law. It aims to increase the efficiency of a traditional passive damped electromagnetic resonator by controlling its mass response actively. The design aspects of the so-called Dual-Loop Controller (DLC) for Hybrid Mass Damper (HMD) are presented and discussed. The control law attempts to modify a Tuned Mass Damper (TMD) to use it as an Active Mass Damper (AMD), with the objective of combining the best of the two technologies by actively increasing the performance of the passive device. Based on an optimally tuned passive device, the resulting system is fail-safe. The conception of the new dual transducer used as an HMD, designed specifically for this control law, is detailed. The hybrid device is experimentally validated both on a laboratory setup and on a real helicopter. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Source parameters were estimated for the 18 largest events (MD ≥ 4) of the 2010 Beni-Ilmane earthquake sequence (north-central Algeria) using data recorded by permanent broadband seismic stations of the Algeria Digital Seismic Network (ADSN). Displacement spectra of P and S waves were estimated using a Brune seismic source model to compute spectral parameters. Spectra were corrected to account for path effects and near-surface attenuation. The average seismic moments estimated from P and S wave spectra ranged from 5.5 × 1014 to 1.6 × 1017 N m, with a logarithmic mean M0(S)/M0(P) ratio of 0.96. Source radii ranged from 735 to 2266 m with an average r(S)/r(P) value of 0.99. Stress drops varied from 0.2 to 11 MPa with an average Δσ(S)/Δσ(P) ratio of 1.08. Corner frequencies (fc) vary from 0.8 to 2.4 Hz, and moment magnitudes (Mw) range from 3.8 to 5.4. Scaling relations of seismic moments, source radii, and stress drops indicate that events with M0 ≥ 2 × 1016 N m have stress drops that are generally constant, while the stress drops of earthquakes with M0 < 2 × 1016 N m decrease with decreasing seismic moment. The source parameters of the 1960 Melouza (now Beni-Ilmane) moderate earthquake are also estimated from these scaling relationships. Finally, we find low b and γ values in the Gutenberg-Richter and gamma function laws. The seismic sequence is discussed in the context of the active tectonics of the Beni-Ilmane fault system. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract Three-dimensional (3-D) ground-supported cylindrical and rectangular rigid liquid storage tanks filled with water and subjected to seismic base excitation are investigated using finite element method (FEM). The analyses of the tanks are carried out using coupled acoustic-structural (CAS) and coupled Eulerian-Lagrangian (CEL) approaches of the FEM using Abaqus®. The CAS approach based on linear wave theory and the CEL approach based on non-linear wave theory are used here to study the fluid-structure interaction (FSI) behavior of the tanks. Sloshing displacement, impulsive, convective, and total hydrodynamic pressures are investigated for varying geometries of the tanks. The small amplitude sloshing and hydrodynamic pressure responses are compared between the two FE-based, CAS and CEL approaches. The results obtained from the present FE-based analysis approaches are found to be in close agreement with the experimentally obtained seismic response in the 3-D cylindrical and rectangular tanks subjected to seismic ground motions. The ratio of peak sloshing height (h) to liquid height in the tank (H L) obtained in the cylindrical tank using the CAS approach is 0.0425 and that by the CEL is 0.039, whereas for rectangular tank it is 0.060 by the CAS approach and 0.046 by the CEL approach; thereby, signifying relatively small sloshing amplitude response. It is concluded that the non-linearity of the sloshing wave displacement does not play a significant role while calculating the hydrodynamic pressure distribution on the rigid tank walls. Highlights • FE simulations by coupled acoustic-structural (CAS) and coupled Euler-Lagrange (CEL). • Small amplitude sloshing displacement and hydrodynamic pressures in rigid tanks. • Dynamic analysis of cylindrical and rectangular rigid tanks for seismic excitations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract The scope of this paper is to give an insight into the advantages of a new, all-embracing, modeling approach of a strong ground motion scenario, by carrying out a source-to-structure analysis at regional scale, accounting explicitly for the uncertainties related to the databases and the models. To this end, a suitable case-study is represented by the 2007 Mw6.6 Niigata-Ken Chūetsu-Oki seismic sequence (west Japan), that damaged the Kashiwazaki Kariwa Nuclear Power Plant. This study describes the effect of the wave propagation path within the Earth's crust on the seismic response of nuclear reactor buildings located nearby a seismogenic source. The multiscale problem is de-coupled into three steps: (1) a parallel simulation of seismic-wave propagation throughout the Earth's crust at regional scale (≈ 60 km wide, major 3-D geological interfaces found below the nuclear site), reliable up to 5.0 Hz; (2) a mid hybridization step consisting in enriching the synthetic wave-field at high frequency (up to 30 Hz), employing an Artificial Neural Network to predict the short-period (SP) spectral ordinates; (3) a high-resolution structural dynamic analysis, introducing the hybrid broad-band synthetics as input wave-motion. A simplified stress-test is performed, by simulating two small point-wise aftershocks at different source-site position. The impact of the underground 3-D geology on the structural components is finally quantified, by injecting the obtained broad-band time-histories in a Soil-Structure Interaction (SSI) model of the nuclear reactor building. The good fit obtained in terms of amplification factor at different recording stations assures the high-fidelity of the holistic philosophy endorsed. Highlights • Source-to-structure simulation of nuclear power plant seismic response. • 3D physics-based earthquake simulation (PBS) at regional scale (60 km) up to f max = 5 Hz. • Realistic simulation of ground motion spatial variability due to 3D folding geology. • Hybrid broad-band wave-motion by coupling PBS with Artificial Neural Networks (ANN). • SSI analysis of reactor building injecting broad-band synthetics (PBS + ANN). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Experimental research on the lateral response of Concave Surface Sliders (CSS) under bi-directional earthquake excitations has shown significant differences in comparison to the uni-directional case. This is mainly due to the stepwise variation of the direction of the frictional force, which is assumed to be parallel to the device trajectory; on the other hand recentering force can still be considered as directed towards the centre of the device. The present endeavor shows results of a wide experimental campaign on a full-scale CSS device, according to a special testing protocol with both uni-directional and bi-directional dynamic tests. Results have shown non-negligible discrepancies in the hysteretic loops of the device between the bi-axial interaction of the directions of motion, in comparison to radial motions: such a behaviour is expected to significantly influence the overall response of a base-isolated structural system, if it is not properly modeled. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract Understanding of lithosphere dynamics, tectonic stress localization, earthquake occurrences, and seismic hazards has significantly advanced during the last decades. Meanwhile, despite the major advancements in geophysical sciences, yet we do not see a decline in earthquake disaster impacts and losses. Although earthquake disasters are mainly associated with significant vulnerability of society, comprehensive seismic hazards assessments and earthquake forecasting could contribute to preventive measures aimed to reduce impacts of earthquakes. Modeling of lithosphere dynamics and earthquake simulations coupled with a seismic hazard analysis can provide a better assessment of potential ground shaking due to earthquakes. Here we present a block-and-fault dynamics (BAFD) model, which simulates earthquakes due to lithosphere dynamics and allows for studying the influence of fault network properties and regional movements on seismic patterns. The model's performance is analyzed in terms of reproduction of basic features of the observed seismicity such as the frequency-magnitude relationship, clustering of earthquakes, occurrences of large events, fault slip rates, and earthquake mechanisms. Several studies related to the application of the BAFD model to the following earthquake-prone regions are reviewed: the southeastern Carpathians, Caucasus, the western India, Tibet-Himalaya, and the Sunda Arc. We examine then a new approach to seismic hazard analysis, which is based on instrumentally recorded, historical and BAFD-simulated earthquakes, and analyze how earthquake modeling can assist in hazard assessment. Finally, we discuss perspectives in modeling of earthquake occurrences and improvements in hazard assessment. Highlights • Dynamic modeling of lithospheric blocks and faults is examined. • Simulated large events in several seismic hazard-prone regions are reviewed. • Hazard assessment utilizes recorded, historical, and simulated earthquakes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The application of a newly developed physics-based earthquake simulator to the active faults inferred by aeromagnetism in southern Calabria has produced a synthetic catalog lasting 100 ky including more than 18,000 earthquakes of magnitude ≥ 4.0. This catalog exhibits temporal, spatial and magnitude features, which resemble those of the observed seismicity. As an example of the potential use of synthetic catalogs, a map of the peak ground acceleration (PGA) for a given exceedance probability on the territory under investigation has been produced by means of a simple attenuation law applied to all the events reported in the synthetic catalog. This map was compared with the existing hazard map that is presently used in the national seismic building regulations. The comparison supports a strong similarity of our results with the values given in the present Italian seismic building code, despite the latter being based on a different methodology. The same similarity cannot be recognized for the comparison of our present study with the results obtained from a previous study based on our same methodology but with a different geological model. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Physics-based earthquake simulators are becoming a popular tool to investigate on the earthquake occurrence process. So far, the development of earthquake simulators is commonly led by the approach “the more physics, the better”. However, this approach may hamper the comprehension of the outcomes of the simulator; in fact, within complex models, it may be difficult to understand which physical parameters are the most relevant to the features of the seismic catalog at which we are interested. For this reason, here, we take an opposite approach and analyze the behavior of a purposely simple earthquake simulator applied to a set of California faults. The idea is that a simple simulator may be more informative than a complex one for some specific scientific objectives, because it is more understandable. Our earthquake simulator has three main components: the first one is a realistic tectonic setting, i.e., a fault data set of California; the second is the application of quantitative laws for earthquake generation on each single fault, and the last is the fault interaction modeling through the Coulomb Failure Function. The analysis of this simple simulator shows that: (1) the short-term clustering can be reproduced by a set of faults with an almost periodic behavior, which interact according to a Coulomb failure function model; (2) a long-term behavior showing supercycles of the seismic activity exists only in a markedly deterministic framework, and quickly disappears introducing a small degree of stochasticity on the recurrence of earthquakes on a fault; (3) faults that are strongly coupled in terms of Coulomb failure function model are synchronized in time only in a marked deterministic framework, and as before, such a synchronization disappears introducing a small degree of stochasticity on the recurrence of earthquakes on a fault. Overall, the results show that even in a simple and perfectly known earthquake occurrence world, introducing a small degree of stochasticity may blur most of the deterministic time features, such as long-term trend and synchronization among nearby coupled faults. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article compares a physics-based earthquake simulator against the latest seismic hazard model for California namely Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast, version 3 (UCERF3) for the effective hazard mitigation efforts. It mentions that ability to replicate statistically based seismic hazard estimates by a physics-based model cross-validates standard methods and provides an approach needing fewer inputs and assumptions for estimating hazard.

Summary: In this paper, we propose a new trajectory tracking control of a ball‐screw‐driven servomechanism for a shaking table. Displacement and acceleration sensors are assumed available, but currents and velocity sensors are not. The design of this control strategy is based on sliding mode approach with state estimation by extended Kalman filter/unscented Kalman filter. The basic feature of this design is that high velocity and high positioning accuracy can be met despite of the fact that the controlled process suffers from noise, friction, and uncertainty. Torque/flux sliding mode controller with online estimation using extended Kalman filter and unscented Kalman filter is proposed to improve velocity sensorless trajectory tracking control of uniaxial earthquake simulator. Simulation works are carried out to show the ability of the proposed method to simulate the speed and acceleration of 2 important earthquakes. The results also demonstrate the activity of the proposed strategy at wide range of velocity operation with measurement noises. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The application of a physics-based earthquake simulation algorithm to the Central Apennines, where the 2016-2017 seismic sequence occurred, allowed the compilation of a synthetic seismic catalogue lasting 100 kyr, and containing more than 500 000 M ≤ 4.0 events, without limitations in terms of completeness, homogeneity and time duration. This simulator is based on an algorithm constrained by several faulting and source parameters. The seismogenicmodel upon which we applied the simulator code, was derived from the Database of Individual Seismogenic Sources including all the fault systems that are recognized in the Central Apennines. The application of our simulation algorithm provides typical features in time, space and magnitude behaviour of the seismicity, which are comparable with the observations. These features include long-term periodicity and a realistic earthquake magnitude distribution. The statistical distribution of earthquakes withM≤6.0 on single faults exhibits a fairly clear pseudo-periodic behaviour, with a coefficient of variation Cv of the order of 0.4-0.8.We found in our synthetic catalogue a clear trend of long-term acceleration of seismic activity preceding M ≤ 6.0 earthquakes and quiescence following those earthquakes. Lastly, as an example of a possible use of synthetic catalogues, an attenuation law was applied to all the events reported in the synthetic catalogue for the production of maps showing the exceedance probability of given values of peak acceleration in the investigated territory. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This manuscript reveals both the full experimental and methodical details of a most-recent patent that demonstrates a much-desired goal of rotational maneuvers via angular exchange momentum, namely extremely high torque without mathematical singularity and accompanying loss of attitude control while the angular momentum trajectory resides in the mathematical singularity. The paper briefly reviews the most recent literature, and then gives theoretical development for implementing the new control methods described in the patent to compute a non-singular steering command to the angular momentum actuators. The theoretical developments are followed by computer simulations used to verify the theoretical computation methodology, and then laboratory experiments are used for validation on a free-floating hardware simulator. A typical 3/4 CMG array skewed at 54.73° yields 0.15H. Utilizing the proposed singularity penetration techniques, 3H momentum is achieved about yaw, 2H about roll, and 1H about pitch representing performance increases of 1900%, 1233%, and 566% respectfully. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study conducts coupled simulation of strong motion and tsunami using stochastically generated earthquake source models. It is focused upon the 2011 Tohoku, Japan earthquake. The ground motion time-histories are simulated using the multiple-event stochastic finite-fault method, which takes into account multiple local rupture processes in strong motion generation areas. For tsunami simulation, multiple realizations of wave profiles are generated by evaluating nonlinear shallow water equations with run-up. Key objectives of this research are: (i) to investigate the sensitivity of strong motion and tsunami hazard parameters to asperities and strong motion generation areas, and (ii) to quantify the spatial variability and dependency of strong motion and tsunami predictions due to common earthquake sources. The investigations provide valuable insights in understanding the temporal and spatial impact of cascading earthquake hazards. Importantly, the study also develops an integrated strong motion and tsunami simulator, which is capable of capturing earthquake source uncertainty. Such an advanced numerical tool is necessary for assessing the performance of buildings and infrastructure that are subjected to cascading earthquake-tsunami hazards. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Adaptive mesh refinement (AMR) is a widely used technique to accelerate computationally intensive simulations, which consists of dynamically increasing the spatial resolution of the areas of interest of the domain as the simulation advances. During the last years there have appeared many publications that tackle the implementation of AMR-based applications in GPUs in order to take advantage of their massively parallel architecture. In this paper we present the first AMR-based application implemented on GPU for the simulation of tsunamis generated by landslides by using a two-layer shallow water system. We also propose a new strategy for the interpolation and projection of the values of the fine cells in the AMR algorithm based on the fluctuations of the state values instead of the usual approach of considering the current state values. Numerical experiments on artificial and realistic problems show the validity and efficiency of the solver. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Strong ground motion simulations require physically plausible earthquake source model. Here, I present the application of such a kinematic model introduced originally by Ruiz et al. (Geophys J Int 186:226-244, 2011). The model is constructed to inherently provide synthetics with the desired omega-squared spectral decay in the full frequency range. The source is composed of randomly distributed overlapping subsources with fractal number-size distribution. The position of the subsources can be constrained by prior knowledge of major asperities (stemming, e.g., from slip inversions), or can be completely random. From earthquake physics point of view, the model includes positive correlation between slip and rise time as found in dynamic source simulations. Rupture velocity and rise time follows local S-wave velocity profile, so that the rupture slows down and rise times increase close to the surface, avoiding unrealistically strong ground motions. Rupture velocity can also have random variations, which result in irregular rupture front while satisfying the causality principle. This advanced kinematic broadband source model is freely available and can be easily incorporated into any numerical wave propagation code, as the source is described by spatially distributed slip rate functions, not requiring any stochastic Green's functions. The source model has been previously validated against the observed data due to the very shallow unilateral 2014 Mw6 South Napa, California, earthquake; the model reproduces well the observed data including the near-fault directivity (Seism Res Lett 87:2-14, 2016). The performance of the source model is shown here on the scenario simulations for the same event. In particular, synthetics are compared with existing ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs), emphasizing the azimuthal dependence of the between-event ground motion variability. I propose a simple model reproducing the azimuthal variations of the between-event ground motion variability, providing an insight into possible refinement of GMPEs' functional forms. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Previous studies have shown that plastic yielding in crustal rocks in the fault zone may impose a physical limit to extreme ground motions. We explore the effects of fault-zone non-linearity on peak ground velocities (PGVs) by simulating a suite of surface-rupturing strike-slip earthquakes in a medium governed by Drucker-Prager plasticity using the AWP-ODC finite-difference code. Our simulations cover magnitudes ranging from 6.5 to 8.0, three different rock strength models, and average stress drops of 3.5 and 7.0 MPa, with a maximum frequency of 1 Hz and a minimum shear-wave velocity of 500 m/s. Friction angles and cohesions in our rock models are based on strength criteria which are frequently used for fractured rock masses in civil and mining engineering. For an average stress drop of 3.5 MPa, plastic yielding reduces near-fault PGVs by 15-30% in pre-fractured, low strength rock, but less than 1% in massive, high-quality rock. These reductions are almost insensitive to magnitude. If the stress drop is doubled, plasticity reduces near-fault PGVs by 38-45% and 5-15% in rocks of low and high strength, respectively. Because non-linearity reduces slip rates and static slip near the surface, plasticity acts in addition to, and may partially be emulated by, a shallow velocity-strengthening layer. The effects of plasticity are exacerbated if a fault damage zone with reduced shear-wave velocities and reduced rock strength is present. In the linear case, fault-zone trapped waves result in higher near-surface peak slip rates and ground velocities compared to simulations without a low-velocity zone. These amplifications are balanced out by fault-zone plasticity if rocks in the damage zone exhibit low-to-moderate strength throughout the depth extent of the low-velocity zone ( $$\sim$$ 5 km). We also perform dynamic non-linear simulations of a high stress drop (8 MPa) M 7.8 earthquake rupturing the southern San Andreas fault along 250 km from Indio to Lake Hughes. Non-linearity in the fault damage zone and in near-surface deposits would reduce peak ground velocities in the Los Angeles basin by 15-50%, depending on the strength of crustal rocks and shallow sediments. These results show that non-linear effects may be relevant even at long periods, in particular in earthquakes with high stress drop and in the presence of a low-velocity fault damage zone. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Empirical earthquake scaling relations play a central role in fundamental studies of earthquake physics and in current practice of earthquake hazard assessment, and are being refined by advances in earthquake source analysis. A scaling relation between seismic moment ( M ) and rupture area ( A) currently in use for ground motion prediction in Japan features a transition regime of the form M - A , between the well-recognized small (self-similar) and very large (W-model) earthquake regimes, which has counter-intuitive attributes and uncertain theoretical underpinnings. Here, we investigate the mechanical origin of this transition regime via earthquake cycle simulations, analytical dislocation models and numerical crack models on strike-slip faults. We find that, even if stress drop is assumed constant, the properties of the transition regime are controlled by surface rupture effects, comprising an effective rupture elongation along-dip due to a mirror effect and systematic changes of the shape factor relating slip to stress drop. Based on this physical insight, we propose a simplified formula to account for these effects in M - A scaling relations for strike-slip earthquakes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We analyzed the performance of the Irikura and Miyake (Pure and Applied Geophysics 168(2011):85-104, 2011) (IM2011) asperity-based kinematic rupture model generator, as implemented in the hybrid broadband ground motion simulation methodology of Graves and Pitarka (Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America 100(5A):2095-2123, 2010), for simulating ground motion from crustal earthquakes of intermediate size. The primary objective of our study is to investigate the transportability of IM2011 into the framework used by the Southern California Earthquake Center broadband simulation platform. In our analysis, we performed broadband (0-20 Hz) ground motion simulations for a suite of M6.7 crustal scenario earthquakes in a hard rock seismic velocity structure using rupture models produced with both IM2011 and the rupture generation method of Graves and Pitarka (Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 2016) (GP2016). The level of simulated ground motions for the two approaches compare favorably with median estimates obtained from the 2014 Next Generation Attenuation-West2 Project (NGA-West2) ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs) over the frequency band 0.1-10 Hz and for distances out to 22 km from the fault. We also found that, compared to GP2016, IM2011 generates ground motion with larger variability, particularly at near-fault distances (<12 km) and at long periods (>1 s). For this specific scenario, the largest systematic difference in ground motion level for the two approaches occurs in the period band 1-3 s where the IM2011 motions are about 20-30% lower than those for GP2016. We found that increasing the rupture speed by 20% on the asperities in IM2011 produced ground motions in the 1-3 s bandwidth that are in much closer agreement with the GMPE medians and similar to those obtained with GP2016. The potential implications of this modification for other rupture mechanisms and magnitudes are not yet fully understood, and this topic is the subject of ongoing study. We concluded that IM2011 rupture generator performs well in ground motion simulations using Graves and Pitarka hybrid method. Therefore, we recommend it to be considered for inclusion into the framework used by the Southern California Earthquake Center broadband simulation platform. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We analyzed the seismological aspects of the near-fault ground motion pulses and studied the main characteristics of the rupture configuration that contribute to the pulse generation for dip-slip faulting events by performing forward simulations in broadband and low-frequency ranges for different rupture scenarios of the 2009 L'Aquila, Italy ( M 6.3) earthquake. The rupture scenarios were based on the broadband source model determined by Poiata et al. (Geophys J Int 191:224-242, 2012). Our analyses demonstrated that ground motion pulses affect spectral characteristics of the observed ground motions at longer periods, generating significantly larger seismic demands on the structures than ordinary records. The results of the rupture scenario simulations revealed the rupture directivity effect, the radial rupture propagation toward the site, and the focusing effect as the main mechanisms of the near-fault ground motion pulse generation. The predominance of one of these mechanisms depends on the location of the site relative to the causative fault plane. The analysis also provides the main candidate mechanisms for the worst-case rupture scenarios of pulse generation for the city of L'Aquila and, more generally, the hanging-wall sites located above the area of large slip (strong motion generation area). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Seismic hazard estimation relies classically on data-based ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs) giving the expected motion level as a function of several parameters characterizing the source and the sites of interest. However, records of moderate to large earthquakes at short distances from the faults are still rare. For this reason, it is difficult to obtain a reliable ground motion prediction for such a class of events and distances where also the largest amount of damage is usually observed. A possible strategy to fill this lack of information is to generate synthetic accelerograms based on an accurate modeling of both extended fault rupture and wave propagation process. The development of such modeling strategies is essential for estimating seismic hazard close to faults in moderate seismic activity zones, where data are even scarcer. For that reason, we selected a target site in Upper Rhine Graben (URG), at the French-German border. URG is a region where faults producing micro-seismic activity are very close to the sites of interest (e.g., critical infrastructures like supply lines, nuclear power plants, etc.) needing a careful investigation of seismic hazard. In this work, we demonstrate the feasibility of performing near-fault broadband ground motion numerical simulations in a moderate seismic activity region such as URG and discuss some of the challenges related to such an application. The modeling strategy is to couple the multi-empirical Green's function technique (multi-EGFt) with a k kinematic source model. One of the advantages of the multi-EGFt is that it does not require a detailed knowledge of the propagation medium since the records of small events are used as the medium transfer function, if, at the target site, records of small earthquakes located on the target fault are available. The selection of suitable events to be used as multi-EGF is detailed and discussed in our specific situation where less number of events are available. We then showed the impact that each source parameter characterizing the k model has on ground motion amplitude. Finally we performed ground motion simulations showing results for different probable earthquake scenarios in the URG. Dependency of ground motions and of their variability are analyzed at different frequencies in respect of rupture velocity, roughness degree of slip distribution (stress drop), and hypocenter location. In near-source conditions, ground motion variability is shown to be mostly governed by the uncertainty on source parameters. In our specific configuration (magnitude, distance), the directivity effect is only observed in a limited frequency range. Rather, broadband ground motions are shown to be sensitive to both average rupture velocity and its possible variability, and to slip roughness. Ending up with a comparison of simulation results and GMPEs, we conclude that source parameters and their variability should be set up carefully to obtain reliable broadband ground motion estimations. In particular, our study shows that slip roughness should be set up in respect of the target stress drop. This entails the need for a better understanding of the physics of earthquake source and its incorporation in the ground motion modeling. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We compared the attenuation characteristics of peak ground accelerations (PGAs) and velocities (PGVs) of strong motion from shallow, small earthquakes that occurred in Japan with those predicted by the equations of Si and Midorikawa (J Struct Constr Eng 523:63-70, 1999). The observed PGAs and PGVs at stations far from the seismic source decayed more rapidly than the predicted ones. The same tendencies have been reported for deep, moderate, and large earthquakes, but not for shallow, moderate, and large earthquakes. This indicates that the peak values of ground motion from shallow, small earthquakes attenuate more steeply than those from shallow, moderate or large earthquakes. To investigate the reason for this difference, we numerically simulated strong ground motion for point sources of M 4 and 6 earthquakes using a 2D finite difference method. The analyses of the synthetic waveforms suggested that the above differences are caused by surface waves, which are predominant at stations far from the seismic source for shallow, moderate earthquakes but not for shallow, small earthquakes. Thus, although loss due to reflection at the boundaries of the discontinuous Earth structure occurs in all shallow earthquakes, the apparent attenuation rate for a moderate or large earthquake is essentially the same as that of body waves propagating in a homogeneous medium due to the dominance of surface waves. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The dynamic rupture process and near-source ground motion of the 1999 Mw 7.1 Düzce Earthquake are simulated. The fault rupture is governed by the slip-weakening friction model coupled to a three-dimensional viscoelastic wave equation. The problem is solved numerically by a 3-D dynamic rupture code that uses a generalized finite difference method. Initial parameterization of stress drop ( $$\Delta \tau$$ ) and strength excess ( $$S_{\text{e}}$$ ) for dynamic rupture calculations is obtained from the slip velocity distribution of a kinematic waveform inversion (KI) model by solving the elastodynamic equation with the kinematic slip as a boundary condition. Using the kinematic slip distribution and observed ground motion as constraints, a trial and error procedure was followed to define the stress parameterization. Preferred model describes the source in terms of stress with three asperities (located, respectively, at the deep, middle and shallow) and strong barriers between asperities. $$S_{\text{e}}$$ is as high as 19 Mpa at barriers between the three asperities and $$\Delta \tau$$ is maximum about 40 Mpa at the deepest asperity. This heterogeneity in stress distribution produces abrupt jumps in rupture velocity, exhibiting locally apparent rupture speed exceeding the P wave velocity at the borders between barriers and asperities, due to sharp changes of fault strength and stress drop at those areas. Overall, consistent with other studies, the rupture propagation is dominated by supershear speed toward the eastern asperities and at shallow surface. Simulated surface rupture at the eastern fault is consistent with other studies; nevertheless, the western shallower parts did not rupture during the simulation, suggesting that those regions may have already broken during the 1999 Kocaeli event, which occurred three months earlier. Ground motion simulation catches the major characteristics of the observed waveforms. Distribution of simulated peak ground velocity (PGV) in low frequency (0.1-0.5 Hz.) inside the study area reveals the propagation pattern on the field, with PGV reaching to 1.2 and 2.2 m/s in the NS and EW components, respectively. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Geological faults comprise large-scale segmentation and small-scale roughness. These multi-scale geometrical complexities determine the dynamics of the earthquake rupture process, and therefore affect the radiated seismic wavefield. In this study, we examine how different parameterizations of fault roughness lead to variability in the rupture evolution and the resulting near-fault ground motions. Rupture incoherence naturally induced by fault roughness generates high-frequency radiation that follows an ω decay in displacement amplitude spectra. Because dynamic rupture simulations are computationally expensive, we test several kinematic source approximations designed to emulate the observed dynamic behavior. When simplifying the rough-fault geometry, we find that perturbations in local moment tensor orientation are important, while perturbations in local source location are not. Thus, a planar fault can be assumed if the local strike, dip, and rake are maintained. We observe that dynamic rake angle variations are anti-correlated with the local dip angles. Testing two parameterizations of dynamically consistent Yoffe-type source-time function, we show that the seismic wavefield of the approximated kinematic ruptures well reproduces the radiated seismic waves of the complete dynamic source process. This finding opens a new avenue for an improved pseudo-dynamic source characterization that captures the effects of fault roughness on earthquake rupture evolution. By including also the correlations between kinematic source parameters, we outline a new pseudo-dynamic rupture modeling approach for broadband ground-motion simulation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Simulated ground motions can be used in structural and earthquake engineering practice as an alternative to or to augment the real ground motion data sets. Common engineering applications of simulated motions are linear and nonlinear time history analyses of building structures, where full acceleration records are necessary. Before using simulated ground motions in such applications, it is important to assess those in terms of their frequency and amplitude content as well as their match with the corresponding real records. In this study, a framework is outlined for assessment of simulated ground motions in terms of their use in structural engineering. Misfit criteria are determined for both ground motion parameters and structural response by comparing the simulated values against the corresponding real values. For this purpose, as a case study, the 12 November 1999 Duzce earthquake is simulated using stochastic finite-fault methodology. Simulated records are employed for time history analyses of frame models of typical residential buildings. Next, the relationships between ground motion misfits and structural response misfits are studied. Results show that the seismological misfits around the fundamental period of selected buildings determine the accuracy of the simulated responses in terms of their agreement with the observed responses. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We estimated the parameters of strong motion generation areas and simulated broadband ground motions for the moderate October 27, 2004 ( M 5.8) and damaging March 4, 1977 ( M 7.4) Vrancea (Romania) intermediate-depth subduction earthquakes using the empirical Green's function method. The method allows the simulation of ground motions in a broadband frequency range by summing up the subevent records, corresponding to small magnitude events in the near-source areas, which are assumed to follow the source-scaling relationship and the omega-square source spectral model. We first estimated the strong motion generation area that reproduces near-source ground motions in a broadband frequency range of 0.3-10 Hz for the 2004 earthquake, by fitting the synthetic acceleration, velocity, and displacement waveforms to the observed data. The source properties of the obtained strong motion generation area are in agreement with the predictions made using an empirical source scaling relationship for crustal earthquakes, implying a stress drop of approximately 10 MPa for the 2004 earthquake. We then modeled the strong motion generation area for the 1977 damaging earthquake using the 2004 earthquake as an empirical Green's function and constructing a source model based on its estimated source parameters. To simulate the unique record at Bucharest, capital city of Romania, the rupture was assumed to have propagated from the northeast bottom of the strong motion generation area having a stress drop of 50 MPa. Broadband ground motion simulations were further compared in terms of the modified Mercalli intensity values, calculated from the peak ground accelerations and peak ground velocities of synthetic waveforms, with the observed Medvedev-Sponheuer-Karnik intensity values. Our estimates of the source properties for the 2004 and 1977 Vrancea intermediate-depth earthquakes support the size-dependent stress drop. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Accurate predictions of the intensity and variability of ground motions are essential in simulation-based seismic hazard assessment. Advanced simulation-based ground motion prediction methods have been proposed to complement the empirical approach, which suffers from the lack of observed ground motion data, especially in the near-source region for large events. It is important to quantify the variability of the earthquake rupture process for future events and to produce a number of rupture scenario models to capture the variability in simulation-based ground motion predictions. In this study, we improved the previously developed stochastic earthquake rupture modeling method by applying the nonparametric co-regionalization, which was proposed in geostatistics, to the correlation models estimated from dynamically derived earthquake rupture models. The nonparametric approach adopted in this study is computationally efficient and, therefore, enables us to simulate numerous rupture scenarios, including large events ( M > 7.0). It also gives us an opportunity to check the shape of true input correlation models in stochastic modeling after being deformed for permissibility. We expect that this type of modeling will improve our ability to simulate a wide range of rupture scenario models and thereby predict ground motions and perform seismic hazard assessment more accurately. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, we address the problem of verifying earthquake simulators with observed data. Earthquake simulators are a class of computational simulations which attempt to mirror the topological complexity of fault systems on which earthquakes occur. In addition, the physics of friction and elastic interactions between fault elements are included in these simulations. Simulation parameters are adjusted so that natural earthquake sequences are matched in their scaling properties. Physically based earthquake simulators can generate many thousands of years of simulated seismicity, allowing for a robust capture of the statistical properties of large, damaging earthquakes that have long recurrence time scales. Verification of simulations against current observed earthquake seismicity is necessary, and following past simulator and forecast model verification methods, we approach the challenges in spatial forecast verification to simulators; namely, that simulator outputs are confined to the modeled faults, while observed earthquake epicenters often occur off of known faults. We present two methods for addressing this discrepancy: a simplistic approach whereby observed earthquakes are shifted to the nearest fault element and a smoothing method based on the power laws of the epidemic-type aftershock (ETAS) model, which distributes the seismicity of each simulated earthquake over the entire test region at a decaying rate with epicentral distance. To test these methods, a receiver operating characteristic plot was produced by comparing the rate maps to observed $$m>6.0$$ earthquakes in California since 1980. We found that the nearest-neighbor mapping produced poor forecasts, while the ETAS power-law method produced rate maps that agreed reasonably well with observations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Nowadays, there are a great number of various structures that have been retrofitted by using different FRP Composites. Due to this, more researches need to be conducted to know more the characteristics of these structures, not only that but also a comparison among them before and after the retrofitting is needed. In this research, a model steel structure is tested using a bench-scale earthquake simulator on the shake table, using recorded micro tremor data, in order to get the dynamic behaviors. Beams of the model steel structure are then retrofitted by using CFRP composite, and then tested on the Quanser shake table by using the recorded micro tremor data. At this stage, it is needed to evaluate the dynamic behaviors of the retrofitted model steel structure. Various types of methods of OMA, such as EFDD, SSI, etc. are used to take action in the ambient responses. Having a purpose to learn more about the effects of FRP composite, experimental model analysis of both types (retrofitted and no-retrofitted models) is conducted to evaluate their dynamic behaviors. There is a provision of ambient excitation to the shake table by using recorded micro tremor ambient vibration data on ground level. Furthermore, the Enhanced Frequency Domain decomposition is used through output-only modal identification. At the end of this study, moderate correlation is obtained between mode shapes, periods and damping ratios. The aim of this research is to show and determine the effects of CFRP Composite implementation on structural responses of the model steel structure, in terms of changing its dynamical behaviors. The frequencies for model steel structure and the retrofitted model steel structure are shown to be 34.43% in average difference. Finally, it is shown that, in order to evaluate the period and rigidity of retrofitted structures, OMA might be used. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The well-established earthquake forecasting model 'Every Earthquake a Precursor According to Scale' (EEPAS) is based on the observation that the magnitude and rate of minor earthquakes increase prior to large earthquakes. The precursor time is measured between this increase and the mainshock and is in the order of months to decades. Fitting the EEPAS model to different regional earthquake catalogues has indicated that the precursor time is longer in more slowly deforming tectonic environments. Examples from the stable continental region of Australia confirm this. To overcome the challenge of limited earthquake records in the analysis of the precursor time for areas with low strain rate, we use the physics-based earthquake simulator, RSQSim to generate a series of synthetic earthquake catalogues. A fault network with realistic complexity is employed, based on the Wellington, New Zealand, fault network. The slip rates on faults are systematically reduced by five successive factors of 1/4. Fitting the EEPAS model to these synthetic catalogues shows that the precursor time is inversely proportional to the reduction in slip rate. Results suggest that the expected precursor times for large earthquakes in stable continental regions far exceed the length of available catalogues. The expected precursor time for the 2010 M7.1 Darfield, New Zealand, earthquake, which apparently had no precursory seismicity in the instrumental catalogue, also exceeds the length of the available catalogue. Therefore, applying the EEPAS model to physics-based simulators allows us to start understanding the phenomenon of precursory seismicity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We applied a stochastic method for the finite-fault modeling of strong ground motions to the 2016 Meinong, Taiwan earthquake. Newly developed attenuation models in Southern Taiwan with the frequency-dependent Q = 86.4 f and the high-frequency decay factor κ were used in the synthetic model. The horizontal-to-vertical spectral ratios (HVSR) were calculated from weak motions and the Meinong mainshock and used for the site amplification correction of the synthetic waveforms produced by the stochastic ground motion simulation. Simulations incorporating the attenuation models and site correction improved the prediction of the S-wave envelope, duration, and peak ground acceleration (PGA). The nonlinear site response during the Meinong mainshock was identified by the degree of nonlinear site response (DNL), which is a summation of HVSR differences between weak motions and the Meinong mainshock as recorded by the Taiwan Strong Motion Instrument Program. The DNL showed a positive correlation with ground motion intensity. The surface site conditions influenced DNL strength. The percentage of PGA reduction calculated in this study can be an indicator of the spatial distribution of the degree of nonlinear soil effects on the Meinong earthquake in the time domain. Areas that had high levels of PGA reduction overlap with areas that had high liquefaction potential. Based on the residual analysis, forward directivity was identified in a 105° range in the northwestward direction. The amplification of forward rupture directivity was three times greater than the backward rupture directivity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Event-based control has received considerable attention due to its irreplaceable advantage in resource-limited systems. In this paper, event-based consensus of second-order discrete-time multi-agent systems is investigated. The event-based controller is designed for each agent, which is based on the state measurement error among neighborhood agents at its own triggering time instants. Some sufficient conditions are obtained for achieving consensus. To avoid observing the current states of its neighbor agents as well as its own state at every discrete-time, a self-triggered approach is presented to determine the triggering time sequence. Furthermore, certain conditions are given to avoid controller update at every discrete time. Finally, a simulation example is given to illustrate the efficiency of the proposed control strategy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study investigated the activity and distribution of low-frequency earthquakes (LFEs) accompanying the very low frequency earthquakes (VLFEs) in the central and southern Ryukyu Trench. This investigation was based on short-period seismometer waveforms obtained by the Japan Meteorological Agency from April 2004 to December 2015. The LFEs were detected using the Envelope Correlation Method, and the hypocenter locations were established using the arrival time difference of the envelope. The arrival times of the P- and S-phases were selected for events in which conspicuous P and S arrivals were observed and their hypocenters were determined. The results showed that LFEs are distributed 30-50 km from the trench axis in the Okinawa and Yaeyama areas. These areas correspond to a slab depth of 12-25 km. The LFEs and VLFEs occurred in association with slow slip events (SSEs) in the Okinawa and Yaeyama areas, indicating that they are induced by SSEs in the Ryukyu Trench. Moreover, the SSEs, LFE-VLFEs, and thrust-type ordinary earthquakes exhibit separate distributions. This suggests change in the frictional condition at the slab depth of 12-25 km along the trench axis in the Ryukyu subduction zone. In the southern Ryukyu Trench, LFEs occur approximately 50 km from the SSE faults, suggesting that SSEs trigger the LFEs near the southern Ryukyu Trench. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The use of a newly developed earthquake simulator has allowed the production of catalogs lasting 100 kyr and containing more than 100,000 events of magnitudes ≥4.5. The model of the fault system upon which we applied the simulator code was obtained from the DISS 3.2.0 database, selecting all the faults that are recognized on the Calabria region, for a total of 22 fault segments. The application of our simulation algorithm provides typical features in time, space and magnitude behavior of the seismicity, which can be compared with those of the real observations. The results of the physics-based simulator algorithm were compared with those obtained by an alternative method using a slip-rate balanced technique. Finally, as an example of a possible use of synthetic catalogs, an attenuation law has been applied to all the events reported in the synthetic catalog for the production of maps showing the exceedance probability of given values of PGA on the territory under investigation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Determining the structural behavior of masonry structures is a challenge due to their lack of homogeneity. The seismic behavior of masonry structures is especially complex. The aim of this study was to examine the structural behavior of Zağanos Bastion using both experimental and numerical methods. The Operational Modal Analysis technique, including the Enhanced Frequency Domain Decomposition Method, and the Stochastic Subspace Identification Method were used to illustrate experimentally the dynamic characteristic of the bastion. A finite element model was developed using ANSYS software in order that the dynamic characteristics of the bastion, including natural frequencies and mode shapes, could be calculated numerically. Seismic analysis was carried out using the 1999 Kocaeli earthquake ground motion record to determine the linear and nonlinear seismic behavior of the bastion. The Turkish Earthquake Code and its general technical specifications were used to evaluate the seismic results. The results show that the maximum and minimum principal stresses exerted on the masonry components exceeded the code requirements at some points, but in general the requirements for the stresses were satisfied. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article discusses the development of doomsday machines to simulate natural disasters such as earthquakes, tornadoes and hurricanes. Topics discussed include the U.S. National Science Foundation's (NSF) funding of the Network for Earthquake Engineering Simulation, studies on how buildings respond to earthquakes, and scientists' integration of physical testing with computer models to test massive structures.

This paper explores reduced micropolar theory to simulate ground motion during an earthquake. In this theory, rotational motions are kinematically independent of translational motions. Analytical expressions for ground displacement and rotational motions due to a buried seismic source are presented in this paper. This theory requires two additional material constants which characterise the microstructure of the medium compared with linear elastic theory. Ground motions are simulated for an earthquake of magnitude ( M) 5.0. The sensitivity of ground motion to these new material constants is reported. It is observed that rotations are sensitive to microstructure of the medium. A comparison with recorded rotations of the M 5.2 Izu peninsula, Japan event is also presented in this article. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

NW Iran is a region of active deformation in the Eurasia-Arabia collision zone. This high strain field has caused intensive faulting accompanied by several major (M > 6.5) earthquakes as it is evident from historical records. Whereas seismic data (i.e. instrumental and historical catalogues) are either short, or inaccurate and inhomogeneous, physics-based long-term simulations are beneficial to better assess seismic hazard. In this study, a deterministic seismicity model, which consists of major active faults, is first constructed, and used to generate a synthetic catalogue of large-magnitude (M > 5.5) earthquakes. The frequency-magnitude distribution of the synthetic earthquake catalogue, which is based on the physical characteristic and slip rate of the mapped faults, is consistent with the empirical distribution evaluated using record of instrumental and historical events. The obtained results are also in accordance with palaeoseismic studies and other independent kinematic deformation models of the Iranian Plateau. Using the synthetic catalogue, characteristic magnitude for all 16 active faults in the study area is determined. Magnitude and epicentre of these earthquakes are comparable with the historical records. Large earthquake recurrence times and their variations are evaluated, either for an individual fault or for the region as a whole. Goodness-of-fitness tests revealed that recurrence times can be well described by the Weibull distribution. Time-dependent conditional probabilities for large earthquakes in the study area are also estimated for different time intervals. The resulting synthetic catalogue can be utilized as a useful data set for hazard and risk assessment instead of short, incomplete and inhomogeneous available catalogues. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Ground motion scenarios for Mt. Etna are created using synthetic simulations with the program EXSIM. A large data set of weak motion records is exploited to identify important input parameters which govern the modeling of wave propagation effects, such as Q-values, high frequency cut-off and geometrical spreading. These parameters are used in the simulation of ground motion for earthquakes causing severe damage in the area. Two seismotectonic regimes are distinguished. Volcano-tectonic events, though being of limited magnitude (M ca. 5), cause strong ground shaking for their shallow foci. Being rather frequent, these events represent a considerable threat to cities and villages on the flanks of the volcano. A second regime is related to earthquakes with foci in the crust, at depths of 10-30 km, and magnitudes ranging from 6 to 7. In our synthetic scenarios, we chose two examples of volcano-tectonic events, i.e. the October 29, 2002, Bongiardo event (I = VIII) and the May 8, 1914, Linera earthquake (I = IX-X). A further scenario regards the February 20, 1818 event, considered representative for stronger earthquakes with foci in the crust. We were able to reproduce the essential features of the macroseismic field, in particular accounting for the possibility of strong site effects. We learned that stress drop estimated for weak motion events is probably too low to explain the intensity of ground motion during stronger earthquakes. This corresponds to findings reported in the literature claiming an increase of stress drop with earthquake size. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Earthquakes are a permanent threat to urban environments worldwide. The communication of the related risk demands accurate damage model simulations and an interactive visualization of results. The aim of this paper is to provide a realistic problem-solving environment for earthquake discussions among decision makers, stakeholders, and the general public. QuakeIST is an integrated earthquake simulator developed by Instituto Superior Técnico (Lisbon University), oriented towards the performance of risk calculations concerning damage propagations that use the Disruption Index concept. This software imports data stored in a GIS environment, handles different ground motion scenarios, and deals with a complex situation of different soils and vulnerabilities of various layers of civil structures (buildings, lifelines, and other urban structures). It models interdependencies between several infrastructures and between infrastructures and the urban tissue. The computer programme is very versatile, written in separate modules, allowing an experimented user to incorporate new formulations. Results can be treated with any statistical application and most common GIS commercial environments can produced their geographic visualization. Current progress and new upcoming are briefly described at the end of the paper. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Hybrid simulation has been effectively utilized to assess structural response subjected to intense dynamic loads. The process comprises dividing the structure into experimental and numerical modules. The experimental modules represent the critical components responses, which cannot be idealized reliably through analytical approaches. The responses of the different modules are combined through a stepwise integration scheme. In conventional hybrid simulations, the number of experimental components is restricted by the capacity of the test facility; usually 1–3 components, and the numerical simulation does not benefit from the information acquired from the tested component during the analysis. In this article, a framework is proposed to identify the material constitutive relationship from the tested component(s) and to update the corresponding numerical parts that share close characteristics with the physical tests. Optimization tools and neural networks are presented as alternatives for the identification procedure; the framework is however extendable and scalable. The communication protocol between the different structural components is also discussed within the proposed framework. Several analytical examples are presented to prove the feasibility of the presented framework, while experiments are used to verify the process in a companion article. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

In this manuscript, we introduce a framework for developing earthquake forecasts usingVirtual Quake (VQ), the generalized successor to the perhaps better known Virtual California (VC) earthquake simulator. We discuss the basic merits and mechanics of the simulator, and we present several statistics of interest for earthquake forecasting. We also show that, though the system as a whole (in aggregate) behaves quite randomly, (simulated) earthquake sequences limited to specific fault sections exhibit measurable predictability in the form of increasing seismicity precursory to large m>7 earthquakes. In order to quantify this, we develop an alertbased forecasting metric, and show that it exhibits significant information gain compared to random forecasts. We also discuss the long-standing question of activation versus quiescent type earthquake triggering. We show that VQ exhibits both behaviours separately for independent fault sections, some fault sections exhibit activation type triggering, while others are better characterized by quiescent type triggering. We discuss these aspects of VQ specifically with respect to faults in the Salton Basin and near the El Mayor-Cucapah region in southern California, USA and northern Baja California Norte, Mexico. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The nonlinear response of shallow foundations when subjected to combined loading has attracted the attention of the research engineering community over the last few decades, providing promising evidence for incorporation of such response in design provisions. Failure in the form of soil yielding or foundation uplifting may accommodate high ductility demand and increase the safety margins of the whole structure. However, increased permanent displacement and rotation may occur. This paper explores the concept of shallow soil improvement as a means to locally increase soil strength and thus limit rocking-induced settlement. Bearing in mind that the rocking mechanism is relatively shallow, failure may be contained in a soil layer of known properties that extends to a shallow depth beneath the foundation. The performance of a system in poor soil conditions, on an ideal soil profile, and on improved soil profiles was explored through a series of centrifuge tests at the Center for Earthquake Engineering Simulation at Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute. The shallow soil improvement, evaluated in terms of moment-rotation and settlement-rotation response, proved quite effective even when its thickness was limited to 25% of the footing width. Some interesting similarities between poor, improved and ideal systems were observed in terms of cyclic moment capacity, contact pressure at the soil-foundation interface, and soil-foundation effective contact area. It is shown that even when uplifting is substantial and only 25% of the footing surface remains in contact with the soil, behavior in all four examined cases is quite stable--an important finding in seismic design of rocking foundations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The widely accessible 3D urban polygonal model is adopted herein to solve the two major challenges in urban seismic simulation: (1) building data acquisition and (2) high-fidelity visualization. A building identification method and a floor plan generation method are proposed in this study. These methods facilitate the automatic generation of 3D-GIS data of buildings, using the widely available 3D urban polygonal model and 2D-GIS data, to achieve the integrated earthquake simulation (IES)-based urban seismic simulation. In addition, a high-fidelity urban earthquake disaster scenario is generated based on the 3D urban polygonal model, the seismic simulation results from IES, and the proposed remeshing and displacement interpolation techniques, which is significantly more realistic than the existing 2.5D visualization method. The outcome of this research will provide a technical reference for improving emergency preparedness and mitigating possible earthquake-induced losses for high seismic regions and cities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]