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The sustainability of social–ecological systems within river deltas globally is in question as rapid development and environmental change trigger "negative" or "positive" tipping points depending on actors' perspectives, e.g. regime shift from abundant sediment deposition to sediment shortage, agricultural sustainability to agricultural collapse or shift from rural to urban land use. Using a systematic review of the literature, we show how cascading effects across anthropogenic, ecological, and geophysical processes have triggered numerous tipping points in the governance, hydrological, and land-use management of the world's river deltas. Crossing tipping points had both positive and negative effects that generally enhanced economic development to the detriment of the environment. Assessment of deltas that featured prominently in the review revealed how outcomes of tipping points can inform the long-term trajectory of deltas towards sustainability or collapse. Management of key drivers at the delta scale can trigger positive tipping points to place social–ecological systems on a pathway towards sustainable development. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Marine species are widely shifting their distributions in response to global changes and it is commonly expected they will move northward and to greater depths to reach cooler, less disturbed habitats. However, local manifestations of global changes, anthropogenic pressures, and species characteristics may lead to unanticipated and varied responses by individual species. In this regard, the Celtic‐Biscay Shelf is a particularly interesting study system because it has historically been heavily fished and occurs at the interface between two distinct biogeographic provinces, its community thus comprised of species with diverse thermal preferenda. In the context of rapidly warming temperatures and intense fishery exploitation, we investigated the distribution shifts of 93 taxa (65 Actinopteri, 10 Elasmobranchii, 11 Cephalopoda, 5 Malacostraca, and 2 Bivalvia), which were sampled annually from 1997 to 2020 during a scientific bottom trawl survey. We used a set of 11 complementary spatial indices to quantify taxon distribution shifts over time. Then, we explored the relative effect of taxon abundance, fishing pressure, and climatic conditions on taxon's distribution shift when a significant shift was detected. We observed that 56% of the taxa significantly shifted. Not all taxa will necessarily shift northward and to deeper areas, as it is often expected. Two opposite patterns were identified: taxa either moving deeper and to the southeast, or moving closer to the surface and to the northwest. The main explanatory factors were climate change (short‐ and long‐term temperatures) and taxon abundance. Fishing pressure was the third, but still significant, explanatory factor of taxa of greater commercial importance. Our research highlights that taxa are displaying complex distribution shifts in response to the combined anthropogenic disturbances and underscores the need to conduct regional studies to better understand these responses at the ecosystem scale to develop more suitable management plans and policies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Restoration of anthropogenically altered habitats has often focused on management for umbrella species—vulnerable species whose conservation is thought to benefit co‐occurring species. Woody plant encroachment is a form of habitat alteration occurring in grasslands and shrublands around the globe, driven by anthropogenic shifts in disturbance regimes. Conifer encroachment is a pervasive threat to historically widespread sagebrush communities, as trees outcompete sagebrush and can negatively affect sagebrush‐obligate animal species. Degradation and loss of sagebrush plant communities in western North America have been associated with drastic declines in wildlife populations. The imperilled Greater Sage‐Grouse is assumed to be an umbrella species for the sagebrush community, so habitat restoration, including removal of encroaching conifers, is commonly targeted towards sage‐grouse. How this conservation action affects the demography of species other than sage‐grouse is largely unknown.We quantified the demographic effects of landscape‐level restoration of sagebrush communities through conifer removal on an assemblage of sagebrush‐obligate, shrubland generalist and woodland‐associated songbirds. We compared songbird density and reproduction between adjacent restored and uncut conifer‐encroached sagebrush plots in southwest Montana. We found and monitored nests to record nest fate and number of offspring produced.We found demographic benefits for sagebrush‐obligate species in restored areas. Sage Thrashers colonized restored areas. Brewer's Sparrow density was 39% higher and nest success was 63% higher in removal treatments, resulting in 119% higher fledgling production compared with uncut areas. The density of Vesper Sparrows, a shrubland generalist, was 308% higher and fledgling production was 660% higher in restored areas.Another shrubland generalist, the White‐crowned Sparrow, experienced 55% lower density and 37% lower fledgling production in conifer removal areas. Two woodland‐associated species, Chipping Sparrows and Dark‐eyed Juncos, were nearly extirpated following conifer removal. A third woodland associate, the Green‐tailed Towhee, experienced 57% lower density and 69% lower fledgling production in removal than non‐removal areas.Synthesis and applications. Our study demonstrates the benefits of conifer removal for sagebrush‐obligate species, while highlighting species that may be sensitive. Umbrella species management can benefit co‐occurring species with similar habitat associations, but demographic analyses for all impacted species are essential for effective conservation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The global movement for ecosystem restoration has gained momentum in response to the Bonn Challenge (2010) and the UN Decade on Ecosystem Restoration (UNDER, 2021–2030). While several science‐based guidelines exist to aid in achieving successful restoration outcomes, significant variation remains in the outcomes of restoration projects. Some of this disparity can be attributed to unexpected responses of ecosystem components to planned interventions.Given the complex nature of ecosystems, we propose that concepts from Complex Systems Science (CSS) that are linked to non‐linearity, such as regime shifts, ecological resilience and ecological feedbacks, should be employed to help explain this variation in restoration outcomes from an ecological perspective.Our framework, Explore Before You Restore, illustrates how these concepts impact restoration outcomes by influencing degradation and recovery trajectories. Additionally, we propose incorporating CSS concepts into the typical restoration project cycle through a CSS assessment phase and suggest that the need for such assessment is explicitly included in the guidelines to improve restoration outcomes.To facilitate this inclusion and make it workable by practitioners, we describe indicators and methods available for restoration teams to answer key questions that should make up such CSS assessment. In doing so, we identify key outstanding science and policy tasks that are needed to further operationalize CSS assessment in restoration.Synthesis and applications. By illustrating how key Complex Systems Science (CSS) concepts linked to non‐linear threshold behaviour can impact restoration outcomes through influencing recovery trajectories, our framework Explore Before You Restore demonstrates the need to incorporate Complex Systems thinking in ecosystem restoration. We argue that inclusion of CSS assessment into restoration project cycles, and more broadly, into international restoration guidelines, may significantly improve restoration outcomes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Natural systems are built from multiple interconnected units, making their dynamics, functioning and fragility notoriously hard to predict. A fragility scenario of particular relevance concerns so‐called regime shifts: abrupt transitions from healthy to degraded ecosystem states. An explanation for these shifts is that they arise as transitions between alternative stable states, a process that is well‐understood in few‐species models. However, how multistability upscales with system complexity remains a debated question. Here, we identify that four different multistability regimes generically emerge in models of species‐rich communities and other archetypical complex biological systems assuming random interactions. Across the studied models, each regime consistently emerges under a specific interaction scheme and leaves a distinct set of fingerprints in terms of the number of observed states, their species richness and their response to perturbations. Our results help clarify the conditions and types of multistability that can be expected to occur in complex ecological communities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The "Symposium on Decadal Variability of the North Atlantic and its Marine Ecosystems: 2010–2019" took place in Bergen, Norway, from 20 to 22 May 2022. This event, hosted by the Institute of Marine Research, was jointly sponsored by ICES and NAFO and constitutes the fourth in a series of these symposia that started in 1991. The first symposium's aim was to review the hydrobiological variability in the decade of the 1980s, addressing the physical environment, plankton, invertebrates, and fish. Subsequent symposia maintained the classical structure, whilst a new theme session covering social sciences was added to the programme in the 2022 edition. Studies of climate impacts on marine ecosystems and living marine resources, including trends and regime shifts, emerged from increasingly longer ecosystem time series across the North Atlantic and subarctic regions. This symposium collection presents key findings discussed during the symposium. Whilst some progress has been made in advancing our ability to understand new trends and patterns of climate change and variability across physical, plankton, and fish communities, more work is needed to integrate these physical-ecological processes and scales with social science. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The North Sea (NS) is changing rapidly. Temporal variations in fishing intensity and eutrophic conditions, along with the ongoing impact of climate change, act in synergy resulting in modifications in marine communities. Although zooplankton has been extensively investigated, studies often ignore the large-sized meso- and macro-zooplankton (>500 µm), including holoplankton and meroplankton taxa. Here, we examined changes in abundances and community structure of these organisms between 1975 and 2018, using univariate and multivariate analysis, at different taxonomic levels. Abrupt changes in the abundances of (sub)communities occurred during different time periods and resulted in a significant restructuration of the entire community in 2006. These changes were consistent with the regime shifts reported in the NS and were a consequence of the environmental pressures on the whole community or on specific subcommunities. In the long term, the community shifted from higher abundances of hydrozoans and holoplankton taxa to an increasing abundance of decapods. Furthermore, we reveal the environmental variables that most explain the variability in the community dynamics, highlighting the importance of temperature and top-down processes. Our study underlines the relevance of investigations at different taxonomic levels, which elucidates how distinct responses to environmental changes ultimately shape the entire community structure. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The coexistence of obligate mutualists is often precariously close to tipping points where small environmental changes can drive catastrophic shifts in species composition. For example, microbial ecosystems can collapse by the decline of a strain that provides an essential resource on which other strains cross-feed. Here, we show that tipping points, ecosystem collapse, bistability and hysteresis arise even with very weak (non-obligate) mutualism provided the population is spatially structured. Based on numeric solutions of a metacommunity model and mean-field analyses, we demonstrate that weak mutualism lowers the minimal dispersal rate necessary to avoid stochastic extinction, while species need to overcome a mean threshold density to survive in this low dispersal rate regime. Our results allow us to make numerous predictions for mutualistic metacommunities regarding tipping points, hysteresis effects, and recovery from external perturbations, and lets us draw general conclusions for ecosystems even with random, not necessarily mutualistic, interactions and systems with density-dependent dispersal rather than direct mutualistic interactions. Author summary: In ecosystems with obligate mutualism, species rely on each other's cooperation to thrive. Obligate mutualism has been of special interest in theoretical ecology because it generates tipping points between drastically different ecological states (along with bistability). Weak, non-obligate mutualistic interactions have attracted much less interest due to their minimal impact on population growth behavior in well-mixed scenarios. However, in spatially structured metacommunities with migration coupling and demographic stochasticity, we find that weak mutualism can fundamentally alter population growth behavior, leading to bistability and abrupt shifts in population size. We identify a broad range of dispersal rates in which populations show bistability and go either extinct or reach an equilibrium, depending on their initial population size. Crossing the limiting dispersal rates of this bistable regime, the system undergoes abrupt catastrophic shifts in population size, which would be overlooked under well-mixed assumptions. Our findings have broad biogeographic implications for predicting tipping points, hysteresis effects, and recovery from perturbations in mutualistic metacommunities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Repeated use of a winning foraging strategy can be profitable when individuals use memory to return to successful food patches. However, in environments where patches are unpredictable, variable foraging behaviour may be more profitable. To test this idea, we explored how individual variation in foraging trip characteristics impacts breeding success in black-legged kittiwakes, Rissa tridactyla , on Middleton Island, Alaska, U.S.A., during a period of highly variable environmental conditions, the largest recorded marine heatwave. As anticipated, foraging trip characteristics were highly variable, within and between years and individuals. While characteristics of foraging trips alone did not influence annual breeding success, both age and variance in those trip characteristics explained variation in breeding success. Specifically, individuals with smaller variance in foraging trip characteristics among trips were more likely to fledge a chick. There was a maximum distance threshold in foraging implying that individuals searched within a restricted area, increasing foraging time rather than distance when searching was not profitable, and providing additional support for the idea that kittiwakes are most successful when foraging in known areas rather than exploring new areas. The Pacific Decadal Oscillation, which is associated with large scale shifts between cold and warm ocean climate and ecosystem regimes in the region, impacted breeding success but did not change foraging behaviour. However, mean breeding success decreased as mean time spent resting and in area-restricted search (intensive search) on foraging trips during incubation increased. Based on nearly a decade of data, we conclude that smaller variability in behaviour, even during challenging foraging conditions, enhances breeding success. As climate change and marine heatwaves continue to increase in intensity, individuals more variable in foraging behaviour may be unable to compensate. • Individuals with less variation in foraging behaviour were more likely to fledge a chick. • There was evidence of a maximum distance threshold in foraging. • Pacific Decadal Oscillation impacted breeding success but not foraging behaviour. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In its narrowness and adherence to temporal bounds, the form of the novel often struggles to represent the climate crisis accurately. I propose a technique of reading novels through the apocalyptic as an alternative to accuracy, realism, and verifiability. Ruth Ozeki's novel A Tale for the Time Being shows what we gain from this technique, inviting questions about the role of fiction in representing disaster and the unique temporal warping that climate change engenders. I use media theory and ecocriticism as lenses through which to study metafiction, establishing a theory of realism/realistic-ness as a form of interface or relation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Heterotrophic bacteria hydrolyze high molecular weight (HMW) organic matter extracellularly prior to uptake, resulting in diffusive loss of hydrolysis products. An alternative 'selfish' uptake mechanism that minimises this loss has recently been found to be common in the ocean. We investigated how HMW organic matter addition affects these two processing mechanisms in surface and bottom waters at three stations in the North Atlantic Ocean. A pulse of HMW organic matter increased cell numbers, as well as the rate and spectrum of extracellular enzymatic activities at both depths. The effects on selfish uptake were more differentiated: in Gulf Stream surface waters and productive surface waters south of Newfoundland, selfish uptake of structurally simple polysaccharides increased upon HMW organic matter addition. The number of selfish bacteria taking up structurally complex polysaccharides, however, was largely unchanged. In contrast, in the oligotrophic North Atlantic gyre, despite high external hydrolysis rates, the number of selfish bacteria was unchanged, irrespective of polysaccharide structure. In deep bottom waters (> 4000 m), structurally complex substrates were processed only by selfish bacteria. Mechanisms of substrate processing—and the extent to which hydrolysis products are released to the external environment—depend on substrate structural complexity and the resident bacterial community. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We quantify an elevated occurrence of abrupt changes in ocean environmental conditions under human‐induced climate forcing using Earth system model output through a novel analysis method that compares the temporal evolution of the forcings applied with the development of local ocean state changes for temperature, oxygen concentration, and carbonate ion concentration. Through a multi‐centennial Earth system model experiment, we show that such an increase is not fully reversible after excess greenhouse gas emissions go back to zero. The increase in occurrence of regional abrupt changes in marine environmental conditions has not yet been accounted for adequately in climate impact analyses that usually associate ecosystem shifts large‐scale variability or extreme events. Estimates for remaining greenhouse gas emission targets need thus to be more conservative. Plain Language Summary: The ocean warms up, gets more acidic, and loses oxygen under progressing anthropogenic climate change putting ecosystems under stress. Regionally, abrupt changes in temperature, acidity, and dissolved oxygen concentration can occur and may make it impossible for organisms to adjust to these new environmental conditions, thereby increasing the risk for deterioration of entire ecosystems. The study provides evidence for elevated occurrence of regional abrupt changes in marine environmental conditions that is not yet accounted for appropriately in climate impact analyses that usually associate ecosystem shifts with changes in large‐scale variability or extreme events. Therefore, the time window for effective climate mitigation to prevent unwanted marine ecosystem impacts may close sooner than previously expected. Key Points: There is an elevated occurrence of abrupt changes in key ocean state variables under human‐induced climate forcingThe occurrence of abrupt changes in the upper ocean peaks around the maximum of the rate of change in human‐induced forcingA multi‐centennial legacy is expected for abrupt shifts in environmental conditions, long after a stop of anthropogenic CO2 emissions [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The dominant paradigm is that large tracts of Southeast Asia's lowland rainforests were replaced with a "savanna corridor" during the cooler, more seasonal climates of the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) (23,000 to 19,000 y ago). This interpretation has implications for understanding the resilience of Asia's tropical forests to projected climate change, implying a vulnerability to "savannization". A savanna corridor is also an important foundation for archaeological interpretations of how humans moved through and settled insular Southeast Asia and Australia. Yet an up-to-date, multiproxy, and empirical examination of the palaeoecological evidence for this corridor is lacking. We conducted qualitative and statistical analyses of 59 palaeoecological records across Southeast Asia to test the evidence for LGM savannization and clarify the relationships between methods, biogeography, and ecological change in the region from the start of Late Glacial Period (119,000 y ago) to the present. The pollen records typically show montane forest persistence during the LGM, while δ13C biomarker proxies indicate the expansion of C4-rich grasslands. We reconcile this discrepancy by hypothesizing the expansion of montane forest in the uplands and replacement of rainforest with seasonally dry tropical forest in the lowlands. We also find that smooth forest transitions between 34,000 and 2,000 y ago point to the capacity of Southeast Asia's ecosystems both to resist and recover from climate stressors, suggesting resilience to savannization. Finally, the timing of ecological change observed in our combined datasets indicates an 'early' onset of the LGM in Southeast Asia from ~30,000 y ago. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background and Aims Coastal Alaska contains vast kelp habitat that supports diverse marine and human communities. Over the past century, the North Pacific Ocean has undergone oceanographic and ecological regime shifts that have the potential to influence the structure and function of kelp ecosystems strongly. However, the remoteness and complexity of the glacially carved region precludes the regular monitoring efforts that would be necessary to detect such changes. Methods To begin to fill this critical knowledge gap, we drew upon historical and modern surveys to analyse the change in spatial coverage and species composition of canopy kelp between two time points (1913 and the early 2000s to 2010s). We also incorporated decadal surveys on sea otter range expansion following complete extirpation and reintroduction to assess the influence of sea otter recovery on the spatial extent of canopy kelp. Key Results We found increases in the spatial extent of canopy kelp throughout the Gulf of Alaska where there was coverage from both surveys. Kelp in Southcentral Alaska showed extensive recovery after the catastrophic Novarupta volcano. Kelp in Southeast Alaska showed persistence and spatial increase that closely matched increases in the range of sea otters. Observations of thermally tolerant kelp species increased more than observations of cold-adapted species between the two surveys. Conclusions Contrary to trends observed at lower latitudes, the kelp forests that ring the Gulf of Alaska have been remarkably stable and even increased in the past century, despite oceanographic and ecosystem changes. To improve monitoring, we propose identification of sentinel kelp beds for regular monitoring to detect changes to these iconic and foundational canopy kelp species more readily. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The effect of climate warming on community composition is expected to be contingent on competitive outcomes, yet approaches to projecting ecological outcomes often rely on measures of density‐independent performance across temperatures. Recent theory suggests that the temperature response of competitive ability differs in shape from that of population growth rate. Here, we test this hypothesis empirically and find thermal performance curves of competitive ability in aquatic microorganisms to be systematically left‐shifted and flatter compared to those of exponential growth rate. The minimum resource requirement for growth, R*—an inverse indicator of competitive ability—changes with temperature following a U‐shaped pattern in all four species tested, contrasting from their left‐skewed density‐independent growth rate thermal performance curves. Our results provide new evidence that exploitative competitive success is highest at temperatures that are sub‐optimal for growth, suggesting performance estimates of density‐independent variables might underpredict performance in cooler competitive environments. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Anthropogenic warming is altering species abundance, distribution, physiology, and more. How changes observed at the species level alter emergent community properties is an active and urgent area of research. Trait‐based ecology and regime shift theory provide complementary ways to understand climate change impacts on communities, but these two bodies of work are only rarely integrated. Lack of integration handicaps our ability to understand community responses to warming, at a time when such understanding is critical. Therefore, we advocate for merging trait‐based ecology with regime shift theory. We propose a general set of principles to guide this merger and apply these principles to research on marine communities in the rapidly warming North Atlantic. In our example, combining trait distribution and regime shift analyses at the community level yields greater insight than either alone. Looking forward, we identify a clear need for expanding quantitative approaches to collecting and merging trait‐based and resilience metrics in order to advance our understanding of climate‐driven community change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This document discusses the impact of climate change on salmonid fishes in rivers. Climate warming poses a serious threat to these cold-adapted ectotherms, leading to population declines, genetic and phenotypic changes, and alterations in behavior, physiology, and distribution. Climate change also affects habitats, including flow regimes, vegetation, oxygen concentration, and water turbidity. The document highlights the importance of understanding these alterations to improve habitat and population management. It also provides insights into the effects of temperature on metabolic rates, genetic diversity, transcriptome, migration patterns, river flow, growth, and predator-prey interactions. The document concludes with a literature review on climate impacts on Pacific and Atlantic salmon, offering guidance for stakeholders, managers, and researchers. [Extracted from the article]

Many disturbances are shifting in severity, frequency, and extent due to changing climate and human activities. Altered disturbance regimes can trigger shifts in ecosystem state where recovery to the pre-disturbance ecosystem is uncertain. In the western North American boreal forest, the intensification of wildfire can cause canopy dominance to switch from black spruce (Picea mariana) to deciduous trees such as Alaska paper birch (Betula neoalaskana) and trembling aspen (Populus tremuloides). Understanding the key mechanisms that determine the resilience and stability of these alternative community types is required for the prediction of future forest dynamics. Here, we assess patterns of post-fire tree recovery across a pre-fire gradient of spruce- to deciduous-dominated forests in Interior Alaska and quantify compositional and environmental thresholds that support the resilience of alternative canopy types. We found post-fire organic soil depth of stands on a recovery trajectory to deciduous dominance (7.3 ± 5.5 cm) were similar regardless of pre-fire composition and significantly shallower than spruce (14.9 ± 9.0 cm) or mixed trajectories (10.4 ± 5.9 cm). Deciduous-dominated stands were highly resilient to fire, as 100% remained deciduous-dominated post-fire. Even when deciduous trees only accounted for a small proportion (12%) of the pre-fire stand, deciduous trees often became dominant after wildfire. We conclude that the establishment of deciduous bud banks and seed sources creates a strong hysteresis in stand recovery that reinforces the resilience of deciduous-dominated boreal forests to wildfire. Accounting for the resilience of this alternative stable state to wildfire suggests that shifts from spruce to deciduous dominance caused by shifting wildfire will have long-term effects on future structure and function of boreal forests and vegetation feedbacks to climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Pikialasorsuaq (North Water polynya) is an area of local and global cultural and ecological significance. However, over the last decades, the region has been subject to rapid warming, and in some recent years, the seasonal ice arch that has historically defined the polynya's northern boundary has failed to form. Both factors are deemed to alter the polynya's ecosystem functioning. To understand how climate‐induced changes to the Pikialasorsuaq impact the basis of the marine food web, we explored diatom community‐level responses to changing conditions, from a sediment core spanning the last 3800 years. Four metrics were used: total diatom concentrations, taxonomic composition, mean size, and diversity. Generalized additive model statistics highlight significant changes at ca. 2400, 2050, 1550, 1200, and 130 cal years BP, all coeval with known transitions between colder and warmer intervals of the Late Holocene, and regime shifts in the Pikialasorsuaq. Notably, a weaker/contracted polynya during the Roman Warm Period and Medieval Climate Anomaly caused the diatom community to reorganize via shifts in species composition, with the presence of larger taxa but lower diversity, and significantly reduced export production. This study underlines the high sensitivity of primary producers to changes in the polynya dynamics and illustrates that the strong pulse of early spring cryopelagic diatoms that makes the Pikialasorsuaq exceptionally productive may be jeopardized by rapid warming and associated Nares Strait ice arch destabilization. Future alterations to the phenology of primary producers may disproportionately impact higher trophic levels and keystone species in this region, with implications for Indigenous Peoples and global diversity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Pastures represent about half of the global agricultural area and productivity losses from weeds are significant. The complex interactions between them and other pasture plants, livestock and the environment imply a need for innovative research that transforms pasture management. To this end, a horizon scan was conducted to identify relevant issues, questions, opportunities, and drivers. The drivers were ranked using three criteria: (1) is this a horizon (is the driver likely to become important in 10–20 years?); (2) will the research require stretchy science (is it currently not well addressed by the science community?); (3) is the research transformative (will successful scientific research in this area lead to significant changes to weed management in pastures?). We identified 11 major issues and 46 subordinate ones. The three highest ranked major issues were: (1) anticipated reductions in access to herbicides; (2) rethinking weed management under an ecosystem services paradigm; (3) responding to shifts in best practice and the regulations that are altering farm system planning to reduce farming's environmental impacts. We conclude that fundamental interdisciplinary research is needed that addresses biosecurity and weed management issues, while reducing the environmental footprint of farming and maintaining productivity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim: Elevational migration is a globally ubiquitous animal behaviour. Understanding the mechanisms that drive variation in elevational movement can help explain the evolution of this widespread animal behaviour and its role in shaping montane life history. We examine the role of thermal regime (the intra‐annual variation in temperature experienced by a species), dispersal ability and diet in explaining the extent of elevational movements. Location: Eastern and Western Himalayas. Time Period: 2011–2022. Major Taxa Studied: Birds. Methods: We used community science data from eBird to acquire checklist‐based observations of birds and used comprehensive data cleaning procedures and randomization tests to produce estimates of seasonal elevational shifts for 302 species of Himalayan birds. Using these data, we ran phylogenetic least squares regressions (PGLS) to test if the extent of elevational shift is driven by thermal regime, dispersal ability and diet. Results: Most Himalayan birds (up to 65%) showed downslope shifts in the winter, although some (5%‐10%) low elevation species shifted upslope. Elevational shift was negatively associated with a species' thermal regime. Species that showed the greatest elevational shifts in both eastern and western Himalayas moved within the narrowest intra‐annual temperature regimes, but did not match their breeding range temperatures as closely as possible. Diet influenced elevational shift in both eastern and western Himalayas, while dispersal ability did not drive elevational shifts. Main Conclusions: Species that show the biggest elevational shifts track thermal regimes most closely. However, in addition to tracking thermal regimes, diet and potentially habitat availability/preferences may drive seasonal elevational shifts. Our results show convergent evolution of elevational shifts across clades. Low elevation habitats are important not only for conserving low elevation birds but also for conserving wintering sites of most high elevation breeders. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Studying the response and recovery of marine microbial communities during mass extinction events provides an evolutionary window through which to understand the adaptation and resilience of the marine ecosystem in the face of significant environmental disturbances. The goal of this study is to reconstruct changes in the marine microbial community structure through the Late Devonian Frasnian‐Famennian (F‐F) transition. We performed a multiproxy investigation on a drill core of the Upper Devonian New Albany Shale from the Illinois Basin (western Kentucky, USA). Aryl isoprenoids show green sulfur bacteria expansion and associated photic zone euxinia (PZE) enhancement during the F‐F interval. These changes can be attributed to augmented terrigenous influxes, as recorded collectively by the long‐chain/short‐chain normal alkane ratio, carbon preference index, C30 moretane/C30 hopane, and diahopane index. Hopane/sterane ratios reveal a more pronounced dominance of eukaryotic over prokaryotic production during the mass extinction interval. Sterane distributions indicate that the microalgal community was primarily composed of green algae clades, and their dominance became more pronounced during the F‐F interval and continued to rise in the subsequent periods. The 2α‐methylhopane index values do not show an evident shift during the mass extinction interval, whereas the 3β‐methylhopane index values record a greater abundance of methanotrophic bacteria during the extinction interval, suggesting enhanced methane cycling due to intensified oxygen depletion. Overall, the Illinois Basin during the F‐F extinction experienced heightened algal productivity due to intensified terrigenous influxes, exhibiting similarities to contemporary coastal oceans that are currently undergoing globalized cultural eutrophication. The observed microbial community shifts associated with the F‐F environmental disturbances were largely restricted to the extinction interval, which suggests a relatively stable, resilient marine microbial ecosystem during the Late Devonian. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Sixteen years (2005–2020) of zooplankton monitoring in the Bay of Marseille (N-W Mediterranean Sea) are analyzed in relation to physical, meteorological, climatic and biotic data. Samples were collected every two weeks by a vertical haul (0–55 m) of a 200 μm plankton net. Different indices characterizing the mesozooplankton are compared: biomass dry weight of four size fractions between 200 and 2000 μm; abundances of the whole of the mesozooplankton and of 13 main taxonomic groups defined from plankton imagery; seasonal onset timing of each zooplankton group; and two other types of indices: the first characterized diversity based on abundance data, and the second was derived from zooplankton size spectra shape. The clearest pattern in the environmental compartment was an overall decreasing trend in nutrients, shifts in phytoplankton metrics (i.e. size structure and particulate organic matter), and changes in winter conditions (i.e. increasing temperatures, precipitation and NAO). Interannual patterns in the mesozooplankton community were: (i) a decrease of total abundance (ii) a decrease in biomass for the four size fractions, with an earlier decrease for the 1000–2000 μm size fraction (in 2008); (iii) a reduced dominance of copepods (calanoids and oithonoids) and a concomitant increase in abundance of other taxonomic groups (crustaceans, pteropods, chaetognaths, salps) which induced higher diversity; (iv) a first shift in size spectra towards smaller sizes in 2009, when the 1000–2000 μm size fraction biomass decreased, and a second shift towards larger sizes in 2013 along with increased diversity; and (iv) a later onset in the phenology for some zooplankton variables and earlier onset for salps. Concomitant changes in the phytoplankton compartment, winter environmental conditions, zooplankton community structure (in size and diversity) and zooplankton phenology marked by a shift in 2013 suggest bottom-up control of the pelagic ecosystem. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Theory suggests that increasingly long, negative feedback loops of many interacting species may destabilize food webs as complexity increases. Less attention has, however, been paid to the specific ways in which these 'delayed negative feedbacks' may affect the response of complex ecosystems to global environmental change. Here, we describe five fundamental ways in which these feedbacks might pave the way for abrupt, large‐scale transitions and species losses. By combining topological and bioenergetic models, we then proceed by showing that the likelihood of such transitions increases with the number of interacting species and/or when the combined effects of stabilizing network patterns approach the minimum required for stable coexistence. Our findings thus shift the question from the classical question of what makes complex, unaltered ecosystems stable to whether the effects of, known and unknown, stabilizing food‐web patterns are sufficient to prevent abrupt, large‐scale transitions under global environmental change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The evolution of Batesian mimicry – whereby harmless species avoid predation through their resemblance to harmful species – has long intrigued biologists. In rare cases, Batesian mimicry is linked to intraspecific colour variation, in which only some individuals within a population resemble a noxious 'model'. Here, we assess intraspecific colour variation within a widespread New Zealand stonefly, wherein highly melanized individuals of Zelandoperla closely resemble a chemically defended aposematic stonefly, Austroperla cyrene. We assess convergence in the colour pattern of these two species, compare their relative palatability to predators, and use genome‐wide association mapping to assess the genetic basis of this resemblance. Our analysis reveals that melanized Zelandoperla overlap significantly with Austroperla in colour space but are significantly more palatable to predators, implying that they are indeed Batesian mimics. Analysis of 194,773 genome‐wide SNPs reveals an outlier locus (ebony) strongly differentiating melanic versus non‐melanic Zelandoperla. Genotyping of 338 specimens from a single Zelandoperla population indicates that ebony explains nearly 70% of the observed variance in melanism. As ebony has a well‐documented role in insect melanin biosynthesis, our findings indicate this locus has a conserved function across deeply divergent hexapod lineages. Distributional records suggest a link between the occurrence of melanic Zelandoperla and the forested ecosystems where the model Austroperla is abundant, suggesting the potential for adaptive shifts in this system underpinned by environmental change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article explores the challenges faced by communities and emergency responders in dealing with wildfires and natural disasters in the context of climate change. It discusses the limitations of scientific models and the need for a shift in knowledge hierarchies and emergency response approaches. The text also highlights the exclusion of Indigenous fire practices and knowledge, which has led to more intense wildfires. It emphasizes the importance of interagency partnerships and reclaiming Indigenous fire practices to mitigate the risks of destructive wildfires. The devastating impact of wildfires on the natural landscape and the cultural significance of the burned areas for the Confederated Salish and Kootenai Tribes are also discussed, along with their efforts to reintroduce fire and restore ecological balance. [Extracted from the article]

Simple Summary: When species from one place invade and settle in another, it can cause serious problems for the local environment. These invasions, known as bio-invasions, disrupt natural ecosystems and can lead to major changes. The Mediterranean Sea is especially at risk because the water conditions are changing rapidly due to climate change, which, coupled with the opening of the Suez Canal, creates an appropriate environment for species from the Red Sea to move in. In May 2023, divers found a type of soft coral called Dendronephthya, that is new to the Mediterranean Sea near Israel. This coral is normally found in the Indo-Pacific region and is common in the Red Sea. Using molecular and morphological analysis, we confirmed the identity of the coral. Because this coral can attach swiftly to surfaces and grow quickly, it is expected to spread rapidly and become more common throughout the Mediterranean Sea. Bio-invasions have the potential to provoke cascade effects that can disrupt natural ecosystems and cause ecological regime shifts. The Mediterranean Sea is particularly prone to bio-invasions as the changing water conditions, evoked by climate change, are creating advantageous conditions for Lessepsian migrants from the Red Sea. Recently, in May 2023, a new alien species was documented in the Mediterranean Sea—a soft coral of the genus Dendronephthya. This discovery was made by divers conducting 'Long-Term Ecological Research' surveys, along the coast of Israel, at a depth of 42 m. Genetic and morphological testing suggest that the species identity may be Dendronepthya hemprichi, an Indo-Pacific coral, common in the Red Sea. According to life history traits of this species, such as accelerated attachment to available surfaces and fast growth, we expect it to rapidly expand its distribution and abundance across the Mediterranean Sea. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: Major depression affects 10% of the US adult population annually, contributing to significant burden and impairment. Research indicates treatment response is a non-linear process characterized by combinations of gradual changes and abrupt shifts in depression symptoms, although less is known about differential trajectories of depression symptoms in therapist-supported digital mental health interventions (DMHI). Methods: Repeated measures latent profile analysis was used to empirically identify differential trajectories based upon biweekly depression scores on the Patient Health Questionnaire-9 (PHQ-9) among patients engaging in a therapist-supported DMHI from January 2020 to July 2021. Multivariate associations between symptom trajectories with sociodemographics and clinical characteristics were examined with multinomial logistic regression. Minimal clinically important differences (MCID) were defined as a five-point change on the PHQ-9 from baseline to week 12. Results: The final sample included 2192 patients aged 18 to 82 (mean = 39.1). Four distinct trajectories emerged that differed by symptom severity and trajectory of depression symptoms over 12 weeks. All trajectories demonstrated reductions in symptoms. Despite meeting MCID criteria, evidence of treatment resistance was found among the trajectory with the highest symptom severity. Chronicity of major depressive episodes and lifetime trauma exposures were ubiquitous across the trajectories in a multinomial logistic regression model. Conclusions: These data indicate that changes in depression symptoms during DMHI are heterogenous and non-linear, suggesting a need for precision care strategies to address treatment resistance and increase engagement. Future efforts should examine the effectiveness of trauma-informed treatment modules for DMHIs as well as protocols for continuation treatment and relapse prevention. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• A delayed tree population model with non-smooth continuous threshold harvesting is investigated. • The conditions for the existence, number, stability and Hopf bifurcation of equilibria are obtained. • Rich dynamics such as bistability, tristability, regime shifts and long transients are observed. • It is shown that the maturation delay of trees can significantly affect the dynamics of tree population. • Moreover, the maximum sustainable yield decreases with the increase of the maturation delay. In this article, we develop a delayed tree population model with non-smooth continuous threshold harvesting. By carefully addressing the main difficulty caused by the nonlinear term and the time delay together, the existence and number of the positive equilibrium points are classified. Taking full use of the domain-decomposition method and Hopf bifurcation theory, the stability of the model, including local and global asymptotic stability of the equilibria, bistability and stability switches occurring at the positive equilibrium, is analyzed relatively completely. This is followed by an investigation of the influence of the maturation delay of trees on the optimal harvesting. Numerical analysis illustrates that the model gives rise to chaotic-like oscillations through period doubling with the increase of the maturation delay or the harvesting rate and undergoes long transients and regime shifts. Even, the maturation delay can induce multi-types of tristability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Wetlands in the Prairie Pothole Region of the North American Northern Great Plains perform multiple ecosystem services and are biodiversity hotspots. However, climatological changes can result in sudden shifts in these important ecosystems. For example, marked increases in precipitation in the last few decades have resulted in a widespread shift in wetlands across the Prairie Pothole Region to a new ecohydrological state. We used multiproxy analyses (diatom community composition and invertebrate stable isotopes) of 210Pb‐dated sediment cores from two adjacent, but morphologically and hydrologically different, prairie‐pothole wetlands to assess the effects of hydroclimatic variability on these wetland ecosystems. Our results provide evidence that the recent ecohydrological shift in the region's wetlands is unprecedented over the past ca. 178 yr. Oxygen stable isotopes in chironomid head capsules provide a record of paleohydrology changes. The most recent sediments (i.e., those deposited after the state shift) from both wetlands revealed novel changes in diatom communities that differed greatly from earlier community compositions. In addition, a depleted signal in deuterium and 13C carbon stable isotopes observed in chironomid head capsules and Daphnia ephippia, respectively, after 1993 is likely related to an increase in methane production in these wetlands. Our study highlights the importance of considering basin morphometry including whether a wetland has an overflow point, and multiple biological indicators to study climate‐change influences on freshwater ecosystems. Research using these techniques can lead to an improved understanding of recent ecosystem shifts, an understanding that will be essential for future climate‐change adaptation and mitigation in this ecologically important region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Simple Summary: Long-term research tends to fall short in the fast-track "publish or perish" research era, even in ecology where it is proven time and time again that natural community variability is sometimes hard to distinguish from the community's response to environmental stressors. In this research, we present how unimpacted freshwater habitats and the dipteran communities therein deal with changing climate and discharge conditions with regard to community structure. Distinguishing "normal" from "extreme" events and taxa indicative of these periods was made possible only after analyzing long-term data. This research presents how freshwater indicator taxa and local dipteran diversity change significantly with regard to extremes in discharge regimes. Most ecologists have used climate change, as an omnipresent pressure, to support their findings in researching the vulnerability of specific taxa, communities, or ecosystems. However, there is a widespread lack of long-term biological, biocoenological, or community data of periods longer than several years to ascertain patterns as to how climate change affects communities. Since the 1950s, southern Europe has faced an ongoing trend of drying and loss of precipitation. A 13-year research program in the Dinaric karst ecoregion of Croatia aimed to comprehensively track emergence patterns of freshwater insects (true flies: Diptera) in a pristine aquatic environment. Three sites, spring, upper, and lower tufa barriers (calcium carbonate barriers on a barrage lake system that act as natural damns), were sampled monthly over 154 months. This coincided with a severe drought event in 2011/2012. This was the most significant drought (very low precipitation rates for an extended period of time) in the Croatian Dinaric ecoregion since the start of detailed records in the early 20th century. Significant shifts in dipteran taxa occurrence were determined using indicator species analysis. Patterns of seasonal and yearly dynamics were presented as Euclidian distance metrics of similarity in true fly community composition compared at increasing time intervals, to ascertain the degree of temporal variability of similarity within the community of a specific site and to define patterns of similarity change over time. Analyses detected significant shifts in community structure linked to changes in discharge regimes, especially to the drought period. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, we take the Rosenzweig--MacArthur (RM) model with generalist predator as an example in a constant or changing environment. When the environment is fixed, we provide a more easily verifiable classification, in terms of the coefficients of the system with nilpotent linear part and general higher terms, to determine the types and codimension of nilpotent singularities in a general planar system. Second, by using the existing classification and some algebraic methods, we show that the highest codimension of a nilpotent focus is 4 and the sample RM model with generalist predator can exhibit nilpotent focus bifurcation of codimension 4. Our results indicate that generalist predation can cause not only richer bifurcations and dynamics (such as multitype tristability and quadristability, a figure-eight loop) but also the possible extirpation of prey. When the environment is changing, we study the impact of the rate\mu and intensity\beta of a nonlinear environmental change on dynamics. The key observations on the asymptotic and transient dynamics include (i) transient tracking on unstable steady states or oscillations, and transient-related regime shifts; (ii) slow and fast regime shifts; (iii) regulation of transient dynamics by the environmental change parameters | μ| and β; (iv) slow negative or fast positive environmental change can delay or even avoid population extirpation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Soil and atmospheric droughts increasingly threaten plant survival and productivity around the world. Yet, conceptual gaps constrain our ability to predict ecosystem‐scale drought impacts under climate change. Here, we introduce the ecosystem wilting point (ΨEWP), a property that integrates the drought response of an ecosystem's plant community across the soil–plant–atmosphere continuum. Specifically, ΨEWP defines a threshold below which the capacity of the root system to extract soil water and the ability of the leaves to maintain stomatal function are strongly diminished. We combined ecosystem flux and leaf water potential measurements to derive the ΨEWP of a Quercus‐Carya forest from an "ecosystem pressure–volume (PV) curve," which is analogous to the tissue‐level technique. When community predawn leaf water potential (Ψpd) was above ΨEWP (=−2.0 MPa), the forest was highly responsive to environmental dynamics. When Ψpd fell below ΨEWP, the forest became insensitive to environmental variation and was a net source of carbon dioxide for nearly 2 months. Thus, ΨEWP is a threshold defining marked shifts in ecosystem functional state. Though there was rainfall‐induced recovery of ecosystem gas exchange following soaking rains, a legacy of structural and physiological damage inhibited canopy photosynthetic capacity. Although over 16 growing seasons, only 10% of Ψpd observations fell below ΨEWP, the forest is commonly only 2–4 weeks of intense drought away from reaching ΨEWP, and thus highly reliant on frequent rainfall to replenish the soil water supply. We propose, based on a bottom‐up analysis of root density profiles and soil moisture characteristic curves, that soil water acquisition capacity is the major determinant of ΨEWP, and species in an ecosystem require compatible leaf‐level traits such as turgor loss point so that leaf wilting is coordinated with the inability to extract further water from the soil. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Standing dead structures of habitat‐forming organisms (e.g., dead trees, coral skeletons, oyster shells) killed by a disturbance are material legacies that can affect ecosystem recovery processes. Many ecosystems are subject to different types of disturbance that either remove biogenic structures or leave them intact. Here we used a mathematical model to quantify how the resilience of coral reef ecosystems may be differentially affected following structure‐removing and structure‐retaining disturbance events, focusing in particular on the potential for regime shifts from coral to macroalgae. We found that dead coral skeletons could substantially diminish coral resilience if they provided macroalgae refuge from herbivory, a key feedback associated with the recovery of coral populations. Our model shows that the material legacy of dead skeletons broadens the range of herbivore biomass over which coral and macroalgae states are bistable. Hence, material legacies can alter resilience by modifying the underlying relationship between a system driver (herbivory) and a state variable (coral cover). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Nonlinear dynamical systems describe neural activity at various scales and are frequently used to study brain functions and the impact of external perturbations. Here, we explore methods from optimal control theory (OCT) to study efficient, stimulating "control" signals designed to make the neural activity match desired targets. Efficiency is quantified by a cost functional, which trades control strength against closeness to the target activity. Pontryagin's principle then enables to compute the cost-minimizing control signal. We then apply OCT to a Wilson–Cowan model of coupled excitatory and inhibitory neural populations. The model exhibits an oscillatory regime, low- and high-activity fixed points, and a bistable regime where low- and high-activity states coexist. We compute an optimal control for a state-switching (bistable regime) and a phase-shifting task (oscillatory regime) and allow for a finite transition period before penalizing the deviation from the target state. For the state-switching task, pulses of limited input strength push the activity minimally into the target basin of attraction. Pulse shapes do not change qualitatively when varying the duration of the transition period. For the phase-shifting task, periodic control signals cover the whole transition period. Amplitudes decrease when transition periods are extended, and their shapes are related to the phase sensitivity profile of the model to pulsed perturbations. Penalizing control strength via the integrated 1-norm yields control inputs targeting only one population for both tasks. Whether control inputs drive the excitatory or inhibitory population depends on the state-space location. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Trends and ecological consequences of phosphorus (P) decline and increasing nitrogen (N) to phosphorus (N:P) ratios in rivers and estuaries are reviewed and discussed. Results suggest that re‐oligotrophication is a dominant trend in rivers and estuaries of high‐income countries in the last two–three decades, while in low‐income countries widespread eutrophication occurs. The decline in P is well documented in hundreds of rivers of United States and the European Union, but the biotic response of rivers and estuaries besides phytoplankton decline such as trends in phytoplankton composition, changes in primary production, ecosystem shifts, cascading effects, changes in ecosystem metabolism, etc., have not been sufficiently monitored and investigated, neither the effects of N:P imbalance. N:P imbalance has significant ecological effects that need to be further investigated. There is a growing number of cases in which phytoplankton biomass have been shown to decrease due to re‐oligotrophication, but the potential regime shift from phytoplankton to macrophyte dominance described in shallow lakes has been documented only in a few rivers and estuaries yet. The main reasons why regime shifts are rarely described in rivers and estuaries are, from one hand the scarcity of data on macrophyte cover trends, and from the other hand physical factors such as peak flows or high turbidity that could prevent a general spread of submerged macrophytes as observed in shallow lakes. Moreover, re‐oligotrophication effects on rivers may be different compared to lakes (e.g., lower dominance of macrophytes) or estuaries (e.g., limitation of primary production by N instead of P) or may be dependent on river/estuary type. We conclude that river and estuary re‐oligotrophication effects are complex, diverse and still little known, and in some cases are equivalent to those described in shallow lakes, but the regime shift is more likely to occur in mid to high‐order rivers and shallow estuaries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Two major oceanographic changes have recently propagated through several trophic levels in coastal areas of Southeast Greenland (SEG). Firstly, the amount of drift‐ice exported from the Fram Strait and transported with the East Greenland Current (EGC) has decreased significantly over the past two decades, and a main tipping element (summer sea ice) has virtually disappeared since 2003 leading to a regime shift in oceanographic and ecological conditions in the region. The following 20‐year period with low or no coastal sea ice is unique in the 200‐year history of ice observations in the region, and the regime shift is also obvious in the volume of ice export through the Fram Strait after 2013. In the same period, the temperature of the EGC south of 73.5 N has increased significantly (>2°C) since 1980. Secondly, the warm Irminger Current, which advects warm, saline Atlantic Water into the region, has become warmer since 1990. The lack of pack ice in summer together with a warming ocean generated cascading effects on the ecosystem in SEG that are manifested in a changed fish fauna with an influx of boreal species in the south and the subarctic capelin further north. At higher trophic levels there has been an increase in the abundance of several boreal cetaceans (humpback, fin, killer, and pilot whales and dolphins) that are either new to this area or occur in historically large numbers. It is estimated that the new cetacean species in SEG are responsible for an annual predation level of 700,000 tons of fish. In addition, predation on krill species is estimated at >1,500,000 tons mainly consumed by fin whales. Simultaneously, there has been a reduction in the abundance and catches of narwhals and walruses in SEG and it is suggested that these species have been impacted by the habitat changes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Coral reefs are shifting from coral to algal‐dominated ecosystems worldwide. Recently, Turbinaria ornata, a marine alga native to coral reefs of the South Pacific, has spread in both range and habitat usage. Given dense stands of T. ornata can function as an alternative stable state on coral reefs, it is imperative to understand the factors that underlie its success. We tested the hypothesis that T. ornata demonstrates ontogenetic variation in allocation to anti‐herbivore defense, specifically that blade toughness varied nonlinearly with thallus size. We quantified the relationship between T. ornata blade toughness and thallus size for individual thalli within algal stands (N = 345) on seven fringing reefs along the north shore of Moorea, French Polynesia. We found that blade toughness was greatest at intermediate sizes that typically form canopies, with overall reduced toughness in both smaller individuals that refuge within the understory and older reproductive individuals that ultimately detach and form floating rafts. We posit this variation in blade toughness reduces herbivory on the thalli that are most exposed to herbivores and may facilitate reproduction in dispersing stages, both of which may aid the proliferation of T. ornata. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this article, we contemplate the dynamics of a three-tier system of nutrient, phytoplankton, and zooplankton with a gestation delay of discrete type and a distributed delay in nutrient recycling. Phytoplankton secretion-mediated alteration in the grazing pattern of zooplankton is encapsulated by a Monod–Haldane functional response. We carry out global sensitivity analysis for identifying the crucial model parameters having a significant impact on zooplankton density. The system potentially exhibits bistable configurations under identical ecological conditions by allowing different bifurcation scenarios, including multiple saddle-node and transcritical bifurcations with varying input rates of nutrients and inhibitory effects of phytoplankton against zooplankton. We observe that the gestation delay in zooplankton is responsible for the emergence of noxious bloom events. Interestingly, when the delay parameter crosses a threshold, the system experiences chaotic disorder, which prognosticates the onset of irregular bloom. Furthermore, by adding Gaussian white noise, we have extended the deterministic model to its stochastic counterpart. We found that white noise appears to regulate the survival and extinction of interacting populations. Comprehensive numerical simulations are consistent with mathematical results prognosticated by linear analysis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

It is standard practice to compare the status of performance indicators between restoration and reference sites to monitor restoration progress and demonstrate restoration success. However, standard methods for defining the reference ecosystem, selecting reference sites, and measuring success are surprisingly lacking. Our study develops these methods based on the acceptable range of variation (ARV) within the desirable stable (reference) state as a measure of restoration success. The method (1) constrains application to the contemporary landscape to avoid the problematic historical range of variation concept and idealized restoration targets; (2) acknowledges the theory of alternative stable states and ecosystem dynamics and posits that the reference ecosystem should be clearly defined as a desirable stable (reference) state; and (3) shows that identifying an acceptable thematic (classification) scale and an acceptable management timeframe is essential to defining the desirable stable (reference) state. We present two approaches to calculating an ARV and a simulation method to explore reference site replication sufficiency. We apply the methods to two contrasting Australian restoration case studies and recommend that routine adoption of these methods would make a significant contribution to the science and practice of restoration ecology and to the assessment of restoration success. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In macroeconomics, an emerging discussion of alternative monetary systems addresses the dimensions of systemic risk in advanced financial systems. Monetary regime changes with the aim of achieving a more sustainable financial system have already been discussed in several European parliaments and were the subject of a referendum in Switzerland. However, their effectiveness and efficacy concerning macro-financial stability are not well-known. This paper defines the economic requirements for modeling the current monetary system and introduces the corresponding macroeconomic agent-based model (MABM) in a continuous-time stochastic agent-based simulation environment with a provenance model. This MABM aims to present a starting point for exploring and analyzing monetary reforms. In this context, the monetary system affects the lending potential of banks and might impact the dynamics of financial crises. MABMs are predestined to replicate emergent financial crisis dynamics, analyze institutional changes within a financial system, and thus measure macro-financial stability. The used simulation environment makes the model more accessible and facilitates exploring the impact of different hypotheses and mechanisms in a less complex way. Moreover, the model replicates a wide range of stylized economic facts, which validates it as an analysis tool to implement and compare monetary regime shifts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This work focuses on optimal harvesting-renewing for a stochastic population. A mixed regular-singular control formulation with a state constraint and regime switching is introduced. The decision-makers either harvest or renew with finite or infinite harvesting/renewing rates. The payoff functions depend on the harvesting/renewing rates. Several properties of the value function are established. The limiting value function as the white noise intensity approaches infinity is identified. The Markov chain approximation method is used to find numerical approximation of the value function and optimal strategies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Cumulative human pressures and climate change can induce nonlinear discontinuous dynamics in ecosystems, known as regime shifts. Regime shifts typically imply hysteresis, a lacking or delayed system response when pressures are reverted, which can frustrate restoration efforts.Here, we investigate whether the northern Adriatic Sea fish and macroinvertebrate community, as depicted by commercial fishery landings, has undergone regime shifts over the last 40 years, and the reversibility of such changes.We use a stochastic cusp model to show that, under the interactive effect of fishing pressure and water warming, the community reorganized through discontinuous changes.We found that part of the community has now reached a new stable state, implying that a recovery towards previous baselines might be impossible. Interestingly, total landings remained constant across decades, masking the low resilience of the community.Our study reveals the importance of carefully assessing regime shifts and resilience in marine ecosystems under cumulative pressures and advocates for their inclusion into management. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this review we describe patterns and mechanisms by which habitat complexity is crucial for the functioning of shallow lakes and ponds, and for the abundance and diversity of biological communities in these ecosystems. Habitat complexity is affected by processes acting at different spatial scales, from the landscape to the ecosystem level (i.e., morphometric attributes) that generate different complexities, determining the potential for organisms to succeed and processes to occur, such as energy and nutrient transfer, and fluxes of greenhouse gases, among others. At the local scale, the three major habitats, pelagic, littoral, and benthic, are characterised by different degrees of structural complexity and a particular set of organisms and processes. Direct and indirect effects of changes in within-lake habitat complexity can either hinder or promote regime shifts in these systems. We also review several anthropogenic pressures (eutrophication, urbanisation, introduction of exotic species, and climate change) that decrease lake resilience through changes in habitat complexity and strategies for habitat complexity restoration. Overall, we emphasize the need to preserve and/or restore habitat complexity as key challenges to account for ecosystem integrity, maintenance of local/regional biodiversity, and for the provision of crucial ecosystem services (e.g., biodiversity, self-purification, and carbon sequestration). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Anthropogenic activities are increasingly affecting ecosystems across the globe. Meanwhile, empirical and theoretical evidence suggest that natural systems can exhibit abrupt collapses in response to incremental increases in the stressors, sometimes with dramatic ecological and economic consequences. These catastrophic shifts are faster and larger than expected from the changes in the stressors and happen once a tipping point is crossed. The primary mechanisms that drive ecosystem responses to perturbations lie in their architecture of relationships, i.e. how species interact with each other and with the physical environment and the spatial structure of the environment. Nonetheless, existing theoretical work on catastrophic shifts has so far largely focused on relatively simple systems that have either few species and/or no spatial structure. This work has laid a critical foundation for understanding how abrupt responses to incremental stressors are possible, but it remains difficult to predict (let alone manage) where or when they are most likely to occur in more complex real-world settings. Here, we discuss how scaling up our investigations of catastrophic shifts from simple to more complex—species rich and spatially structured—systems could contribute to expanding our understanding of how nature works and improve our ability to anticipate the effects of global change on ecological systems. This article is part of the theme issue 'Ecological complexity and the biosphere: the next 30 years'. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Ecological regime shifts are expected to increase this century as climate change propagates cascading effects across ecosystems with coupled elements. Here, we demonstrate that the climate-driven salt marsh-to-mangrove transition does not occur in isolation but is linked to lesser-known oyster reef-to-mangrove regime shifts through the provision of mangrove propagules. Using aerial imagery spanning 82 y, we found that 83% of oyster reefs without any initial mangrove cover fully converted to mangrove islands and that mean (± SD) time to conversion was 29.1 ± 9.6 y. In situ assessments of mangrove islands suggest substantial changes in ecosystem structure during conversion, while radiocarbon dates of underlying reef formation indicate that such transitions are abrupt relative to centuries-old reefs. Rapid transition occurred following release from freezes below the red mangrove (Rhizophora mangle) physiological tolerance limit (27.3 °C) and after adjacent marsh-to-mangrove conversion. Additional nonclimatemediated drivers of ecosystem change were also identified, including oyster reef exposure to wind-driven waves. Coupling of regime shifts arises from the growing supply of mangrove propagules from preceding and adjacent marsh-to-mangrove conversion. Climate projections near the mangrove range limit on the Gulf coast of Florida suggest that regime shifts will begin to transform subtropical estuaries by 2070 if propagule supply keeps pace with predicted warming. Although it will become increasingly difficult to maintain extant oyster habitat with tropicalization, restoring oyster reefs in high-exposure settings or active removal of mangrove seedlings could slow the coupled impacts of climate change shown here. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

At certain nutrient concentrations, shallow freshwater lakes are generally characterized by two contrasting ecological regimes with disparate patterns of biodiversity and biogeochemical cycles: a macrophyte-dominated regime (MDR) and a phytoplankton-dominated regime (PDR). To reveal ecological mechanisms that affect bacterioplankton along the regime shift, Illumina MiSeq sequencing of the 16S rRNA gene combined with a novel network clustering tool (Manta) were used to identify patterns of bacterioplankton community composition across the regime shift in Taihu Lake, China. Marked divergence in the composition and ecological assembly processes of bacterioplankton community was observed under the regime shift. The alpha diversity of the bacterioplankton community consistently and continuously decreased with the regime shift from MDR to PDR, while the beta diversity presents differently. Moreover, as the regime shifted from MDR to PDR, the contribution of deterministic processes (such as environmental selection) to the assembly of bacterioplankton community initially decreased and then increased again as regime shift from MDR to PDR, most likely as a consequence of differences in nutrient concentration. The topological properties, including modularity, transitivity and network diameter, of the bacterioplankton co-occurrence networks changed along the regime shift, and the co-occurrences among species changed in structure and were significantly shaped by the environmental variables along the regime transition from MDR to PDR. The divergent environmental state of the regimes with diverse nutritional status may be the most important factor that contributes to the dissimilarity of bacterioplankton community composition along the regime shift. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Central Asian lakes are crucial for sustaining fragile oasis ecosystems in arid regions. Understanding the response of ecosystems in these lake basins to climate change is essential for predicting future variations in these ecosystems. Aibi Lake is a notable terminal lake in arid Central Asia. In this study, a 95 cm lacustrine sediment core was drilled from Aibi Lake to investigate the response of lacustrine and terrestrial ecosystems in the lake basin to climate change over the past 3200 years. Accelerator mass spectrometry (AMS) 14C dating and multi-proxy analyses of diatoms, pollen, grain size, total organic content (TOC), total nitrogen (TN), and total hydrogen (TH) are applied to the sediment core. The grain size and geochemical results show that the lake experienced elevated levels and improved productivity and nutrition during the periods of 708–181 BCE, 0–740 CE, and 1428–1900 CE. The periods align with the Roman Warm Period, Dark Age Cold Period, and Little Ice Age, respectively. For the past 3200 years, benthic diatoms have consistently been the dominant species in the lake. During the climatic transition periods of the Dark Age Cold Period, Medieval Warm Period, and Little Ice Age, there were significant changes in the abundance and survival of certain species of diatoms. Specifically, the halophilic species (Nitzschia dissipata and Nitzschia hungarica), basophilic species (Synedra acus), and the nutrition level-relevant species (Navicula menisculus) experienced notable shifts. These changes ultimately resulted in a noticeable alteration in the structure and function of the diatom community. Over the past 3200 years, the lake ecosystem has undergone three noticeable regime shifts. In contrast, the vegetation in the lake catchment has remained relatively stable, primarily consisting of desert steppe. These results suggest that aquatic ecosystems in arid central Asia are more susceptible and exhibit more rapid responses to climate change compared to terrestrial vegetation. [Display omitted] • Three regime shifts occurred in the aquatic ecosystem of Aibi Lake during the past 3200 years. • Desert steppe dominated the vegetation in the lake basin during the past 3200 years. • Climate change impacted Aibi Lake diatom communities by changing nutrient levels and lake level. • Aquatic ecosystems are more susceptible to climate change compare to terrestrial vegetation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]