1. Stability analysis of the SVEIAQR model of the spread of COVID-19 in Banten, Indonesia.
- Author
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Oktafiana, Mira, Widowati, Widowati, Udjiani, Titi, Kartono, K., and Utomo, R. H. S.
- Subjects
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COVID-19 pandemic , *BASIC reproduction number , *RESPIRATORY infections , *SARS-CoV-2 , *COVID-19 vaccines - Abstract
Covid-19 is a severe pandemic with a high mortality rate caused by the infectious respiratory virus SARS-CoV-2. Viruses associated with respiratory tract infections will use epithelial cells and airway mucosa as initial targets and cause respiratory tract infections or organ damage. This paper develops a model for the spread of Covid-19 with the effect of vaccination and quarantine. This model has seven variables, namely Susceptible, Vaccinated, Exposed, Symptomatic, Asymptomatic, Quarantined, and Recovered. From this model, two equilibrium points are obtained, non-endemic and endemic equilibrium points. Further, we analyze the global stability using the Lyapunov method. If basic reproduction number (ℛ0) less than one, then the non-endemic equilibrium point is globally asymptotically stable, while if basic reproduction number more than one, then the endemic equilibrium point is globally asymptotically stable. Numerical simulations are given to describe the behavior of the spread of Covid-19 in Banten Province on February 1, 2022 until May 1, 2022 with the result that increasing vaccination rates can reduce susceptible subpopulations. From the simulation results, it is obtained with a value of ℛ0 = 0.0000103<1, meaning that the Covid-19 spread model is asymptotically stable at a non-endemic equilibrium point. This indicates that the spread Covid-19 will decrease over time. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2024
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