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Diffusion models achieve state-of-the-art generation quality across many applications, but their ability to capture rare or extreme events in heavy-tailed distributions remains unclear. In this work, we show that traditional diffusion and flow-matching models with standard Gaussian priors fail to capture heavy-tailed behavior. We address this by repurposing the diffusion framework for heavy-tail estimation using multivariate Student-t distributions. We develop a tailored perturbation kernel and derive the denoising posterior based on the conditional Student-t distribution for the backward process. Inspired by $\gamma$-divergence for heavy-tailed distributions, we derive a training objective for heavy-tailed denoisers. The resulting framework introduces controllable tail generation using only a single scalar hyperparameter, making it easily tunable for diverse real-world distributions. As specific instantiations of our framework, we introduce t-EDM and t-Flow, extensions of existing diffusion and flow models that employ a Student-t prior. Remarkably, our approach is readily compatible with standard Gaussian diffusion models and requires only minimal code changes. Empirically, we show that our t-EDM and t-Flow outperform standard diffusion models in heavy-tail estimation on high-resolution weather datasets in which generating rare and extreme events is crucial., Comment: 51 pages, v2 Fixes typo and adds some more recent work

Conditioning diffusion and flow models have proven effective for super-resolving small-scale details in natural images.However, in physical sciences such as weather, super-resolving small-scale details poses significant challenges due to: (i) misalignment between input and output distributions (i.e., solutions to distinct partial differential equations (PDEs) follow different trajectories), (ii) multi-scale dynamics, deterministic dynamics at large scales vs. stochastic at small scales, and (iii) limited data, increasing the risk of overfitting. To address these challenges, we propose encoding the inputs to a latent base distribution that is closer to the target distribution, followed by flow matching to generate small-scale physics. The encoder captures the deterministic components, while flow matching adds stochastic small-scale details. To account for uncertainty in the deterministic part, we inject noise into the encoder output using an adaptive noise scaling mechanism, which is dynamically adjusted based on maximum-likelihood estimates of the encoder predictions. We conduct extensive experiments on both the real-world CWA weather dataset and the PDE-based Kolmogorov dataset, with the CWA task involving super-resolving the weather variables for the region of Taiwan from 25 km to 2 km scales. Our results show that the proposed stochastic flow matching (SFM) framework significantly outperforms existing methods such as conditional diffusion and flows., Comment: 31 pages

Reduced transmon qubit $T_1$ coherence times have been linked to the amorphous oxide layers formed by thin film capacitors during processing. Because Ta or Ta capped Nb capacitors exhibit overall superior qubit performance to those fabricated with Nb capacitors, it has been hypothesized that the amorphous, non-stoichiometric Ta$_2$O$_{5-x}$ oxide is less lossy than its Nb$_2$O$_{5-x}$ counterpart. The origins of what makes amorphous Ta$_2$O$_{5-x}$ less susceptible to accepted decoherence channels is unknown. Here we establish the microscopic features of amorphous Nb$_2$O$_{5-x}$ and Ta$_2$O$_{5-x}$ using a combination of \textit{ab initio} molecular dynamics and density functional theory calculations. Our simulations establish that oxygen deficiency is less likely to occur in amorphous Ta$_2$O$_{5-x}$ than in Nb$_2$O$_{5-x}$ for $0\le x \le 0.25$ and that at a given level of oxygen deficiency the formation of metal Ta-Ta bonds is enhanced. These bonds, which are accommodated by structural flaws in the amorphous network, capture electrons better than in amorphous Nb$_2$O$_{5-x}$. These thermochemical differences quench or highly suppress magnetic moments in amorphous Ta$_2$O$_{5-x}$ and eliminate a potential source of quasiparticles and magnetic flux noise. Our calculations also show that hyperfine couplings between Nb nuclei and local magnetic moments in Nb$_2$O$_{5-x}$ could form "two-level systems" (TLS) or "two-level fluctuators" (TLF) with energy splittings of 100-1000 MHz or higher. This reveals a new TLS mechanism in amorphous Nb$_2$O$_{5-x}$ oxide layers that is unlikely in Ta$_2$O$_{5-x}$. Our work provides fundamental understanding of the materials chemistry and limitations imposed by native oxides of superconducting qubits, which can be used to guide materials selection and processing., Comment: 8 pages, 4 figures

One of the most challenging problems in the computational study of localization in quantum manybody systems is to capture the effects of rare events, which requires sampling over exponentially many disorder realizations. We implement an efficient procedure on a quantum processor, leveraging quantum parallelism, to efficiently sample over all disorder realizations. We observe localization without disorder in quantum many-body dynamics in one and two dimensions: perturbations do not diffuse even though both the generator of evolution and the initial states are fully translationally invariant. The disorder strength as well as its density can be readily tuned using the initial state. Furthermore, we demonstrate the versatility of our platform by measuring Renyi entropies. Our method could also be extended to higher moments of the physical observables and disorder learning.

The Time-Domain And MultiMessenger (TDAMM) Communications Science Analysis Group (TDAMMCommSAG) was formulated to describe the unique technical challenges of communicating rapidly to and from NASA astrophysics missions studying the most variable, transient, and extreme objects in the Universe. This report describes the study of if and how the transition from current NASA-operated space and ground relays to commercial services will adequately serve these missions. Depending on the individual mission requirements and Concept of Operations (ConOps), TDAMM missions may utilize a rapid low-rate demand access service, a low-rate continuous contact service, low-latency downlink upon demand, or a higher-latency but regular relay service. The specific implementations can vary via space relay or direct to Earth, but requires flexibility and adaptability using modern software infrastructure. The study team reviewed the current state of NASA communications services and future commercial and NASA communications services under study and in development. We explored the communications capabilities driving from the behavior of the astrophysical objects themselves., Comment: 20 page, 1 figure

Lattice gauge theories (LGTs) can be employed to understand a wide range of phenomena, from elementary particle scattering in high-energy physics to effective descriptions of many-body interactions in materials. Studying dynamical properties of emergent phases can be challenging as it requires solving many-body problems that are generally beyond perturbative limits. We investigate the dynamics of local excitations in a $\mathbb{Z}_2$ LGT using a two-dimensional lattice of superconducting qubits. We first construct a simple variational circuit which prepares low-energy states that have a large overlap with the ground state; then we create particles with local gates and simulate their quantum dynamics via a discretized time evolution. As the effective magnetic field is increased, our measurements show signatures of transitioning from deconfined to confined dynamics. For confined excitations, the magnetic field induces a tension in the string connecting them. Our method allows us to experimentally image string dynamics in a (2+1)D LGT from which we uncover two distinct regimes inside the confining phase: for weak confinement the string fluctuates strongly in the transverse direction, while for strong confinement transverse fluctuations are effectively frozen. In addition, we demonstrate a resonance condition at which dynamical string breaking is facilitated. Our LGT implementation on a quantum processor presents a novel set of techniques for investigating emergent particle and string dynamics.

Weconsider Markov decision processes arising from a Markov model of an underlying natural phenomenon. Such phenomena are usually periodic (e.g. annual) in time, and so the Markov processes modelling them must be time-inhomogeneous, with cyclostationary rather than stationary behaviour. We describe a technique for constructing such processes that allows for periodic variations both in the values taken by the process and in the serial dependence structure. We include two illustrative numerical examples: a hydropower scheduling problem and a model of offshore wind power integration.

The sub-Jovian desert is a region in the mass-period and radius-period parameter space, typically encompassing short-period ranges between super-Earths and hot Jupiters, that exhibits an intrinsic dearth of planets. This scarcity is likely shaped by photoevaporation caused by the stellar irradiation received by giant planets that have migrated inward. We report the detection and characterization of TOI-3568 b, a transiting super-Neptune with a mass of $26.4\pm1.0$ M$_\oplus$, a radius of $5.30\pm0.27$ R$_\oplus$, a bulk density of $0.98\pm0.15$ g cm$^{-3}$, and an orbital period of 4.417965(5) d situated in the vicinity of the sub-Jovian desert. This planet orbiting a K dwarf star with solar metallicity, was identified photometrically by TESS. It was characterized as a planet by our high-precision radial velocity monitoring program using MAROON-X at Gemini North, supplemented by additional observations from the SPICE large program with SPIRou at CFHT. We performed a Bayesian MCMC joint analysis of the TESS and ground-based photometry, MAROON-X and SPIRou radial velocities, to measure the orbit, radius, and mass of the planet, as well as a detailed analysis of the high-resolution flux and polarimetric spectra to determine the physical parameters and elemental abundances of the host star. Our results reveal TOI-3568 b as a hot super-Neptune, rich in hydrogen and helium with a core of heavier elements with a mass between 10 and 25 M$_\oplus$. We analyzed the photoevaporation status of TOI-3568 b and found that it experiences one of the highest EUV luminosities among planets with a mass M$_{\rm p}$ $<2$ M$_{\rm Nep}$, yet it has an evaporation lifetime exceeding 5 Gyr. Positioned in the transition between two significant populations of exoplanets on the mass-period and energy diagrams, this planet presents an opportunity to test theories concerning the origin of the sub-Jovian desert., Comment: Accepted for publication in A&A on September 4, 2024

Quantum error correction provides a path to reach practical quantum computing by combining multiple physical qubits into a logical qubit, where the logical error rate is suppressed exponentially as more qubits are added. However, this exponential suppression only occurs if the physical error rate is below a critical threshold. In this work, we present two surface code memories operating below this threshold: a distance-7 code and a distance-5 code integrated with a real-time decoder. The logical error rate of our larger quantum memory is suppressed by a factor of $\Lambda$ = 2.14 $\pm$ 0.02 when increasing the code distance by two, culminating in a 101-qubit distance-7 code with 0.143% $\pm$ 0.003% error per cycle of error correction. This logical memory is also beyond break-even, exceeding its best physical qubit's lifetime by a factor of 2.4 $\pm$ 0.3. We maintain below-threshold performance when decoding in real time, achieving an average decoder latency of 63 $\mu$s at distance-5 up to a million cycles, with a cycle time of 1.1 $\mu$s. To probe the limits of our error-correction performance, we run repetition codes up to distance-29 and find that logical performance is limited by rare correlated error events occurring approximately once every hour, or 3 $\times$ 10$^9$ cycles. Our results present device performance that, if scaled, could realize the operational requirements of large scale fault-tolerant quantum algorithms., Comment: 10 pages, 4 figures, Supplementary Information

Storm-scale convection-allowing models (CAMs) are an important tool for predicting the evolution of thunderstorms and mesoscale convective systems that result in damaging extreme weather. By explicitly resolving convective dynamics within the atmosphere they afford meteorologists the nuance needed to provide outlook on hazard. Deep learning models have thus far not proven skilful at km-scale atmospheric simulation, despite being competitive at coarser resolution with state-of-the-art global, medium-range weather forecasting. We present a generative diffusion model called StormCast, which emulates the high-resolution rapid refresh (HRRR) model-NOAA's state-of-the-art 3km operational CAM. StormCast autoregressively predicts 99 state variables at km scale using a 1-hour time step, with dense vertical resolution in the atmospheric boundary layer, conditioned on 26 synoptic variables. We present evidence of successfully learnt km-scale dynamics including competitive 1-6 hour forecast skill for composite radar reflectivity alongside physically realistic convective cluster evolution, moist updrafts, and cold pool morphology. StormCast predictions maintain realistic power spectra for multiple predicted variables across multi-hour forecasts. Together, these results establish the potential for autoregressive ML to emulate CAMs -- opening up new km-scale frontiers for regional ML weather prediction and future climate hazard dynamical downscaling.

Studying low-likelihood high-impact extreme weather events in a warming world is a significant and challenging task for current ensemble forecasting systems. While these systems presently use up to 100 members, larger ensembles could enrich the sampling of internal variability. They may capture the long tails associated with climate hazards better than traditional ensemble sizes. Due to computational constraints, it is infeasible to generate huge ensembles (comprised of 1,000-10,000 members) with traditional, physics-based numerical models. In this two-part paper, we replace traditional numerical simulations with machine learning (ML) to generate hindcasts of huge ensembles. In Part I, we construct an ensemble weather forecasting system based on Spherical Fourier Neural Operators (SFNO), and we discuss important design decisions for constructing such an ensemble. The ensemble represents model uncertainty through perturbed-parameter techniques, and it represents initial condition uncertainty through bred vectors, which sample the fastest growing modes of the forecast. Using the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Integrated Forecasting System (IFS) as a baseline, we develop an evaluation pipeline composed of mean, spectral, and extreme diagnostics. Using large-scale, distributed SFNOs with 1.1 billion learned parameters, we achieve calibrated probabilistic forecasts. As the trajectories of the individual members diverge, the ML ensemble mean spectra degrade with lead time, consistent with physical expectations. However, the individual ensemble members' spectra stay constant with lead time. Therefore, these members simulate realistic weather states, and the ML ensemble thus passes a crucial spectral test in the literature. The IFS and ML ensembles have similar Extreme Forecast Indices, and we show that the ML extreme weather forecasts are reliable and discriminating.

In Part I, we created an ensemble based on Spherical Fourier Neural Operators. As initial condition perturbations, we used bred vectors, and as model perturbations, we used multiple checkpoints trained independently from scratch. Based on diagnostics that assess the ensemble's physical fidelity, our ensemble has comparable performance to operational weather forecasting systems. However, it requires several orders of magnitude fewer computational resources. Here in Part II, we generate a huge ensemble (HENS), with 7,424 members initialized each day of summer 2023. We enumerate the technical requirements for running huge ensembles at this scale. HENS precisely samples the tails of the forecast distribution and presents a detailed sampling of internal variability. For extreme climate statistics, HENS samples events 4$\sigma$ away from the ensemble mean. At each grid cell, HENS improves the skill of the most accurate ensemble member and enhances coverage of possible future trajectories. As a weather forecasting model, HENS issues extreme weather forecasts with better uncertainty quantification. It also reduces the probability of outlier events, in which the verification value lies outside the ensemble forecast distribution.

Type Ibn supernovae (SNe Ibn) are rare stellar explosions powered primarily by interaction between the SN ejecta and H-poor, He-rich material lost by their progenitor stars. Multi-wavelength observations, particularly in the X-rays, of SNe Ibn constrain their poorly-understood progenitor channels and mass-loss mechanisms. Here we present Swift X-ray, ultraviolet, and ground-based optical observations of the Type Ibn SN 2022ablq -- only the second SN Ibn with X-ray detections to date. While similar to the prototypical Type Ibn SN 2006jc in the optical, SN 2022ablq is roughly an order of magnitude more luminous in the X-rays, reaching unabsorbed luminosities $L_X$ $\sim$ 3$\times$10$^{40}$ erg s$^{-1}$ between 0.2 - 10 keV. From these X-ray observations we infer time-varying mass-loss rates between 0.05 - 0.5 $M_\odot$ yr$^{-1}$ peaking 0.5 - 2 yr before explosion. This complex mass-loss history and circumstellar environment disfavor steady-state winds as the primary progenitor mass-loss mechanism. We also search for precursor emission from alternative mass-loss mechanisms, such as eruptive outbursts, in forced photometry during the two years before explosion. We find no statistically significant detections brighter than M $\approx$ -14 -- too shallow to rule out precursor events similar to those observed for other SNe Ibn. Finally, numerical models of the explosion of a $\sim$15 $M_\odot$ helium star that undergoes an eruptive outburst $\approx$1.8 years before explosion are consistent with the observed bolometric light curve. We conclude that our observations disfavor a Wolf-Rayet star progenitor losing He-rich material via stellar winds and instead favor lower-mass progenitor models, including Roche-lobe overflow in helium stars with compact binary companions or stars that undergo eruptive outbursts during late-stage nucleosynthesis stages., Comment: 23 pages, 8 figures, submitted to ApJ. Comments welcome

We present a scheme for speeding up quantum measurement. The scheme builds on previous protocols that entangle the system to be measured with ancillary systems. In the idealised situation of perfect entangling operations and no decoherence, it gives an exact space-time trade-off meaning the readout speed increases linearly with the number of ancilla. We verify this scheme is robust against experimental imperfections through numerical modelling of gate noise and readout errors, and under certain circumstances our scheme can even lead to better than linear improvement in the speed of measurement with the number of systems measured. This hardware-agnostic approach is broadly applicable to a range of quantum technology platforms and offers a route to accelerate mid-circuit measurement as required for effective quantum error correction., Comment: 14 pages, 8 figures

Phase transitions in the early universe lead to a reduction in the equation of state of the primordial plasma. This exponentially enhances the formation rate of primordial black holes. However, this sensitivity to the equation of state is the same that primordial black hole abundances show to the primordial curvature power spectrum amplitude. In this paper, we investigate peaked power spectra and show the challenges associated with motivating populations of primordial black holes with standard model enhancements. The parametrisation of different power spectra plays an important role in this discussion. The allowed parameter space consistent with a large QCD phase transition impact on the primordial black hole abundance differs greatly. This is particularly evident for wider spectra., Comment: 18 pages plus appendices. 13 figures

Long-period radio transients are an emerging class of extreme astrophysical events of which only three are known. These objects emit highly polarised, coherent pulses of typically a few tens of seconds duration and minutes to hour-long periods. While magnetic white dwarfs and magnetars, either isolated or in binary systems, have been invoked to explain these objects, a consensus has not emerged. Here we report on the discovery of ASKAP J193505.1+214841.0 (henceforth ASKAPJ1935+2148) with a period of 53.8 minutes exhibiting three distinct emission states - a bright pulse state with highly linearly polarised pulses with widths of 10-50 seconds; a weak pulse state which is about 26 times fainter than the bright state with highly circularly polarised pulses of widths of approximately 370 milliseconds; and a quiescent or quenched state with no pulses. The first two states have been observed to progressively evolve over the course of 8 months with the quenched state interspersed between them suggesting physical changes in the region producing the emission. A constraint on the radius of the source for the observed period rules out a magnetic white dwarf origin. Unlike other long-period sources, ASKAPJ1935+2148 is the first to exhibit drastic variations in emission modes reminiscent of neutron stars. However, its radio properties challenge our current understanding of neutron star emission and evolution., Comment: Published in Nature Astronomy

Late-time ($\sim$ year) radio follow-up of optically-discovered tidal disruption events (TDEs) is increasingly resulting in detections at radio wavelengths, and there is growing evidence for this late-time radio activity to be common to the broad class of sub-relativistic TDEs. Detailed studies of some of these TDEs at radio wavelengths are also challenging the existing models for radio emission. Using all-sky multi-epoch data from the Australian Square Kilometre Array Pathfinder (ASKAP), taken as a part of the Rapid ASKAP Continuum Survey (RACS), we searched for radio counterparts to a sample of optically-discovered TDEs. We detected late-time emission at RACS frequencies (742-1032\,MHz) in five TDEs, reporting the independent discovery of radio emission from TDE AT2019ahk and extending the time baseline out to almost 3000\,days for some events. Overall, we find that at least $22^{+15}_{-11}$\% of the population of optically-discovered TDEs has detectable radio emission in the RACS survey, while also noting that the true fraction can be higher given the limited cadence (2 epochs separated by $\sim 3\,$ years) of the survey. Finally, we project that the ongoing higher-cadence ($\sim 2$\,months) ASKAP Variable and Slow Transients (VAST) survey can detect $\sim 20$ TDEs in its operational span (4\,yrs), given the current rate from optical surveys., Comment: Accepted for publication in ApJ, comments welcome

We report on the thermodynamic and transport properties of the rare-earth Zintl compound Eu$_5$Sn$_2$As$_6$, which orders as a canted antiferromagnetic magnetic semiconductor at 10.3~K. The system also displays a complex cascade of magnetic phases arising from geometric and magnetic exchange frustration, with high sensitivity to the application and direction of small magnetic fields. At low temperature, Eu$_5$Sn$_2$As$_6$ exhibits negative colossal magnetoresistance of up to a factor of $6\times10^3$. This may be a lower bound as the conductivity appears to be shunted by an unknown conduction channel, causing the resistivity to saturate. Mechanisms for the low temperature saturation of resistivity are discussed., Comment: 11 pages, 5 figures in main text, 5 appendices

The study of quantum magnetism in frustrated triangular lattices has promised the discovery of exotic excitations emerging from many-body entanglement, like the quantum spin liquid. This field is vexed by the interplay of disorder, correlations and long-range order, whose properties are challenging to control and disentangle. We study the entropy-carrying excitations of a leading candidate in this search, the material NaYbSe$_2$, as a function of site dilution to directly address this challenge. We map the evolution of the entangled spins across the percolation transition, showing unequivocal evidence for the presence of an energy gap in the excitations of the system. However, we also show that this gap onsets at the percolation transition where disorder is the greatest, strongly suggesting that it is unlikely be associated with a quantum spin liquid. Instead we suggest the more universal scenario of a short-range ordered state with entropy-carrying boundaries., Comment: 7 pages, 3 figures

Modern climate projections often suffer from inadequate spatial and temporal resolution due to computational limitations, resulting in inaccurate representations of sub-grid processes. A promising technique to address this is the Multiscale Modeling Framework (MMF), which embeds a kilometer-resolution cloud-resolving model within each atmospheric column of a host climate model to replace traditional convection and cloud parameterizations. Machine learning (ML) offers a unique opportunity to make MMF more accessible by emulating the embedded cloud-resolving model and reducing its substantial computational cost. Although many studies have demonstrated proof-of-concept success of achieving stable hybrid simulations, it remains a challenge to achieve near operational-level success with real geography and comprehensive variable emulation that includes, for example, explicit cloud condensate coupling. In this study, we present a stable hybrid model capable of integrating for at least 5 years with near operational-level complexity, including real geography, seasonality, explicit cloud condensate predictions, and land coupling. Our model demonstrates skillful online performance in metrics such as 5-year zonal mean biases compared to previous MMF emulation studies. The monthly error against reference MMF simulations with the same initial condition approaches the fundamental predictability limit. Key factors contributing to our online performance include an expressive U-Net architecture, additional input features that include large-scale forcings and convection memory, and physical thermodynamic constraints for microphysics. With microphysical constraints mitigating unrealistic cloud formation, our work is the first to demonstrate realistic multi-year cloud condensate climatology under the MMF framework. Our work showcases ML parameterization's potential for operational-level climate simulations., Comment: 31 pages, 7 figures in the main text, 4 figures in appendix. This version is a minor editorial update from the previous version 2

Data assimilation of observational data into full atmospheric states is essential for weather forecast model initialization. Recently, methods for deep generative data assimilation have been proposed which allow for using new input data without retraining the model. They could also dramatically accelerate the costly data assimilation process used in operational regional weather models. Here, in a central US testbed, we demonstrate the viability of score-based data assimilation in the context of realistically complex km-scale weather. We train an unconditional diffusion model to generate snapshots of a state-of-the-art km-scale analysis product, the High Resolution Rapid Refresh. Then, using score-based data assimilation to incorporate sparse weather station data, the model produces maps of precipitation and surface winds. The generated fields display physically plausible structures, such as gust fronts, and sensitivity tests confirm learnt physics through multivariate relationships. Preliminary skill analysis shows the approach already outperforms a naive baseline of the High-Resolution Rapid Refresh system itself. By incorporating observations from 40 weather stations, 10\% lower RMSEs on left-out stations are attained. Despite some lingering imperfections such as insufficiently disperse ensemble DA estimates, we find the results overall an encouraging proof of concept, and the first at km-scale. It is a ripe time to explore extensions that combine increasingly ambitious regional state generators with an increasing set of in situ, ground-based, and satellite remote sensing data streams., Comment: 18 pages, 7 figures

Several sources of repeating coherent bursts of radio emission with periods of many minutes have now been reported in the literature. These "ultra-long period" (ULP) sources have no clear multi-wavelength counterparts and challenge canonical pulsar emission models, leading to debate regarding their nature. In this work we report the discovery of a bright, highly-polarised burst of radio emission at low Galactic latitude as part of a wide-field survey for transient and variable radio sources. ASKAP\,J175534.9$-$252749.1 does not appear to repeat, with only a single intense two-minute $\sim$200-mJy burst detected from 60~hours of observations. The burst morphology and polarisation properties are comparable to those of classical pulsars but the duration is more than one hundred times longer, analogous to ULPs. Combined with the existing ULP population, this suggests that these sources have a strong Galactic latitude dependence and hints at an unexplored population of transient and variable radio sources in the thin disk of the Milky Way. The resemblance of this burst with both ULPs and pulsars calls for a unified coherent emission model for objects with spin periods from milliseconds to tens of minutes. However, whether or not these are all neutron stars or have the same underlying power source remains open for debate.

We describe version 2 of the SPICE dataset, a collection of quantum chemistry calculations for training machine learning potentials. It expands on the original dataset by adding much more sampling of chemical space and more data on non-covalent interactions. We train a set of potential energy functions called Nutmeg on it. They are based on the TensorNet architecture. They use a novel mechanism to improve performance on charged and polar molecules, injecting precomputed partial charges into the model to provide a reference for the large scale charge distribution. Evaluation of the new models shows they do an excellent job of reproducing energy differences between conformations, even on highly charged molecules or ones that are significantly larger than the molecules in the training set. They also produce stable molecular dynamics trajectories, and are fast enough to be useful for routine simulation of small molecules., Comment: 26 pages, 9 figures, 7 tables

Seasonal climate forecasts are socioeconomically important for managing the impacts of extreme weather events and for planning in sectors like agriculture and energy. Climate predictability on seasonal timescales is tied to boundary effects of the ocean on the atmosphere and coupled interactions in the ocean-atmosphere system. We present the Ocean-linked-atmosphere (Ola) model, a high-resolution (0.25{\deg}) Artificial Intelligence/ Machine Learning (AI/ML) coupled earth-system model which separately models the ocean and atmosphere dynamics using an autoregressive Spherical Fourier Neural Operator architecture, with a view towards enabling fast, accurate, large ensemble forecasts on the seasonal timescale. We find that Ola exhibits learned characteristics of ocean-atmosphere coupled dynamics including tropical oceanic waves with appropriate phase speeds, and an internally generated El Ni\~no/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) having realistic amplitude, geographic structure, and vertical structure within the ocean mixed layer. We present initial evidence of skill in forecasting the ENSO which compares favorably to the SPEAR model of the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory.

Radio Frequency Interference (RFI) poses a significant challenge in radio astronomy, arising from terrestrial and celestial sources, disrupting observations conducted by radio telescopes. Addressing RFI involves intricate heuristic algorithms, manual examination, and, increasingly, machine learning methods. Given the dynamic and temporal nature of radio astronomy observations, Spiking Neural Networks (SNNs) emerge as a promising approach. In this study, we cast RFI detection as a supervised multi-variate time-series segmentation problem. Notably, our investigation explores the encoding of radio astronomy visibility data for SNN inference, considering six encoding schemes: rate, latency, delta-modulation, and three variations of the step-forward algorithm. We train a small two-layer fully connected SNN on simulated data derived from the Hydrogen Epoch of Reionization Array (HERA) telescope and perform extensive hyper-parameter optimization. Results reveal that latency encoding exhibits superior performance, achieving a per-pixel accuracy of 98.8% and an f1-score of 0.761. Remarkably, these metrics approach those of contemporary RFI detection algorithms, notwithstanding the simplicity and compactness of our proposed network architecture. This study underscores the potential of RFI detection as a benchmark problem for SNN researchers, emphasizing the efficacy of SNNs in addressing complex time-series segmentation tasks in radio astronomy., Comment: 7 pages, 2 figures, 4 tables. International Conference on Neuromorphic Systems (ICONS) 2024, Accepted

The morphology of the 21-cm signal emitted by the neutral hydrogen present in the intergalactic medium (IGM) during the Epoch of Reionization (EoR) depends both on the properties of the sources of ionizing radiation and on the underlying physical processes within the IGM. Variation in the morphology of the IGM 21-cm signal due to the different sources of the EoR is expected to have a significant impact on the 21-cm bispectrum, which is one of the crucial observable statistics that can evaluate the non-Gaussianity present in the signal and which can be estimated from radio interferometric observations of the EoR. Here we present the 21-cm bispectrum for different reionization scenarios assuming different simulated models for the sources of reionization. We also demonstrate how well the 21-cm bispectrum can distinguish between different IGM 21-cm signal morphologies, arising due to the differences in the reionization scenarios, which will help us shed light on the nature of the sources of ionizing photons. Our estimated large-scale bispectrum for all unique $k$-triangle shapes shows a significant difference in the magnitude and sign across different reionization scenarios. Additionally, our focused analysis of bispectrum for a few specific $k$-triangle shapes (e.g. squeezed-limit, linear, and shapes in the vicinity of the squeezed-limit) shows that the large scale 21-cm bispectrum can distinguish between reionization scenarios that show inside-out, outside-in and a combination of inside-out and outside-in morphologies. These results highlight the potential of using the 21-cm bispectrum for constraining different reionization scenarios., Comment: 30 pages, 7 figures, comments are welcome, accepted in JCAP

Computational workflow management systems power contemporary data-intensive sciences. The slowly resolving reproducibility crisis presents both a sobering warning and an opportunity to iterate on what science and data processing entails. The Square Kilometre Array (SKA), the world's largest radio telescope, is among the most extensive scientific projects underway and presents grand scientific collaboration and data-processing challenges. This work presents a scale and system-agnostic computational workflow model and extends five well-known reproducibility tenets into seven defined for our workflow model. Subsequent implementation of these definitions, powered by blockchain primitives, into the Data Activated Flow Graph Engine (DALiuGE), a workflow management system for the SKA, demonstrates the possibility of facilitating automatic formal verification of scientific quality in amortized constant time. We validate our approach with a simple yet representative astronomical processing task; filtering a noisy signal with a lowpass filter with both CPU and GPU methods. Our framework illuminates otherwise obscure scientific discrepancies and similarities between principally identical workflow executions., Comment: 15 pages, 3 figures, 5 tables. Submitted to Elsevier

High quality science teaching builds pupils' curiosity and critical thinking, helping them to develop a coherent understanding of the world around them. Primary science teaching plays a crucial role in shaping pupils' attitudes toward the subject, nurturing participation that can support future pathways into science, technology, engineering, and mathematics (STEM) fields. Much like the other core subject areas of the national curriculum, in science, there is a stubborn gap in attainment between socio-economically disadvantaged pupils and their classmates. This gap is also reflected in pupils' participation in science, with those from disadvantaged backgrounds far less likely to progress to further study in science subjects when it is no longer compulsory. This guidance report focuses on primary science teaching of pupils between the ages of five to eleven and provides six practical recommendations, underpinned by high quality evidence, about how to make meaningful improvements to primary science teaching. It is designed to help practitioners, science subject leads, class teachers, and headteachers build on their existing expertise with a view to supporting them to close the attainment gap and cultivate positive pupil attitudes towards science.

Understanding how interacting particles approach thermal equilibrium is a major challenge of quantum simulators. Unlocking the full potential of such systems toward this goal requires flexible initial state preparation, precise time evolution, and extensive probes for final state characterization. We present a quantum simulator comprising 69 superconducting qubits which supports both universal quantum gates and high-fidelity analog evolution, with performance beyond the reach of classical simulation in cross-entropy benchmarking experiments. Emulating a two-dimensional (2D) XY quantum magnet, we leverage a wide range of measurement techniques to study quantum states after ramps from an antiferromagnetic initial state. We observe signatures of the classical Kosterlitz-Thouless phase transition, as well as strong deviations from Kibble-Zurek scaling predictions attributed to the interplay between quantum and classical coarsening of the correlated domains. This interpretation is corroborated by injecting variable energy density into the initial state, which enables studying the effects of the eigenstate thermalization hypothesis (ETH) in targeted parts of the eigenspectrum. Finally, we digitally prepare the system in pairwise-entangled dimer states and image the transport of energy and vorticity during thermalization. These results establish the efficacy of superconducting analog-digital quantum processors for preparing states across many-body spectra and unveiling their thermalization dynamics.

While the spectroscopic classification scheme for Stripped envelope supernovae (SESNe) is clear, and we know that they originate from massive stars that lost some or all their envelopes of Hydrogen and Helium, the photometric evolution of classes within this family is not fully characterized. Photometric surveys, like the Vera C. Rubin Legacy Survey of Space and Time, will discover tens of thousands of transients each night and spectroscopic follow-up will be limited, prompting the need for photometric classification and inference based solely on photometry. We have generated 54 data-driven photometric templates for SESNe of subtypes IIb, Ib, Ic, Ic-bl, and Ibn in U/u, B, g, V, R/r, I/i, J, H, Ks, and Swift w2, m2, w1 bands using Gaussian Processes and a multi-survey dataset composed of all well-sampled open-access light curves (165 SESNe, 29531 data points) from the Open Supernova Catalog. We use our new templates to assess the photometric diversity of SESNe by comparing final per-band subtype templates with each other and with individual, unusual and prototypical SESNe. We find that SNe Ibns and Ic-bl exhibit a distinctly faster rise and decline compared to other subtypes. We also evaluate the behavior of SESNe in the PLAsTiCC and ELAsTiCC simulations of LSST light curves highlighting differences that can bias photometric classification models trained on the simulated light curves. Finally, we investigate in detail the behavior of fast-evolving SESNe (including SNe Ibn) and the implications of the frequently observed presence of two peaks in their light curves., Comment: 65 pages, 35 images, 8 tables, submitted to The Astrophysical Journal Supplement Series

We study the asymptotic behaviour of orbits $(T^nx)_{n\ge0}$ of the classical Ces\`aro operator $T$ for sequences $x$ in the Banach space $c$ of convergent sequences. We give new non-probabilistic proofs, based on the Katznelson-Tzafriri theorem and one of its quantified variants, of results which characterise the set of sequences $x\in c$ that lead to convergent orbits and, for sequences satisfying a simple additional condition, we provide a rate of convergence. These results are then shown, again by operator-theoretic techniques, to be optimal in different ways. Finally, we study the asymptotic behaviour of the Ces\`aro operator defined on spaces of continuous functions, establishing new and improved results in this setting, too., Comment: Accepted for publication in Journal of Mathematical Analysis and Applications

We present the Sydney Radio Star Catalogue, a new catalogue of stars detected at megahertz to gigahertz radio frequencies. It consists of 839 unique stars with 3,405 radio detections, more than doubling the previously known number of radio stars. We have included stars from large area searches for radio stars found using circular polarisation searches, cross-matching, variability searches, and proper motion searches as well as presenting hundreds of newly detected stars from our search of Australian SKA Pathfinder observations. The focus of this first version of the catalogue is on objects detected in surveys using SKA precursor instruments; however we will expand this scope in future versions. The 839 objects in the Sydney Radio Star Catalogue are distributed across the whole sky and range from ultracool dwarfs to Wolf-Rayet stars. We find that the radio luminosities of cool dwarfs are lower than the radio luminosities of more evolved sub-giant and giant stars. We use X-ray detections of 530 radio stars by the eROSITA soft X-ray instrument onboard the SRG spacecraft to show that almost all of the radio stars in the catalogue are over-luminous in the radio, indicating that the majority of stars at these radio frequencies are coherent radio emitters. The Sydney Radio Star Catalogue can be found in Vizier or at https://radiostars.org., Comment: 21 pages, 8 Figures, 7 Tables, Submitted to PASA

This work presents an autoregressive generative diffusion model (DiffObs) to predict the global evolution of daily precipitation, trained on a satellite observational product, and assessed with domain-specific diagnostics. The model is trained to probabilistically forecast day-ahead precipitation. Nonetheless, it is stable for multi-month rollouts, which reveal a qualitatively realistic superposition of convectively coupled wave modes in the tropics. Cross-spectral analysis confirms successful generation of low frequency variations associated with the Madden--Julian oscillation, which regulates most subseasonal to seasonal predictability in the observed atmosphere, and convectively coupled moist Kelvin waves with approximately correct dispersion relationships. Despite secondary issues and biases, the results affirm the potential for a next generation of global diffusion models trained on increasingly sparse, and increasingly direct and differentiated observations of the world, for practical applications in subseasonal and climate prediction., Comment: Published as a workshop paper at "Tackling Climate Change with Machine Learning", ICLR 2024

Long-period transiting exoplanets bridge the gap between the bulk of transit- and Doppler-based exoplanet discoveries, providing key insights into the formation and evolution of planetary systems. The wider separation between these planets and their host stars results in the exoplanets typically experiencing less radiation from their host stars; hence, they should maintain more of their original atmospheres, which can be probed during transit via transmission spectroscopy. Although the known population of long-period transiting exoplanets is relatively sparse, surveys performed by the Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite (TESS) and the Next Generation Transit Survey (NGTS) are now discovering new exoplanets to fill in this crucial region of the exoplanetary parameter space. This study presents the detection and characterisation of NGTS-30 b/TOI-4862 b, a new long-period transiting exoplanet detected by following up on a single-transit candidate found in the TESS mission. Through monitoring using a combination of photometric instruments (TESS, NGTS, and EulerCam) and spectroscopic instruments (CORALIE, FEROS, HARPS, and PFS), NGTS-30 b/TOI-4862 b was found to be a long-period (P = 98.29838 day) Jupiter-sized (0.928 RJ; 0.960 MJ) planet transiting a 1.1 Gyr old G-type star. With a moderate eccentricity of 0.294, its equilibrium temperature could be expected to vary from 274 K to 500 K over the course of its orbit. Through interior modelling, NGTS-30 b/TOI-4862 b was found to have a heavy element mass fraction of 0.23 and a heavy element enrichment (Zp/Z_star) of 20, making it metal-enriched compared to its host star. NGTS-30 b/TOI-4862 b is one of the youngest well-characterised long-period exoplanets found to date and will therefore be important in the quest to understanding the formation and evolution of exoplanets across the full range of orbital separations and ages., Comment: 18 pages, 14 figures, accepted for publication in A&A

Neutral atom arrays have emerged as a versatile platform towards scalable quantum computation and optimization. In this paper we present first demonstrations of weighted graph optimization on a Rydberg atom array using annealing with local light-shifts. We verify the ability to prepare weighted graphs in 1D and 2D arrays, including embedding a five vertex non-unit disk graph using nine physical qubits and demonstration of a simple crossing gadget. We find common annealing ramps leading to preparation of the target ground state robustly over a substantial range of different graph weightings. This work provides a route to exploring large-scale optimization of non-planar weighted graphs relevant for solving relevant real-world problems., Comment: 7 pages, 5 figures. Methods: 3 pages, 2 figures

With Dynamic Resource Management (DRM) the resources assigned to a job can be changed dynamically during its execution. From the system's perspective, DRM opens a new level of flexibility in resource allocation and job scheduling and therefore has the potential to improve system efficiency metrics such as the utilization rate, job throughput, energy efficiency, and responsiveness. From the application perspective, users can tailor the resources they request to their needs offering potential optimizations in queuing time or charged costs. Despite these obvious advantages and many attempts over the last decade to establish DRM in HPC, it remains a concept discussed in academia rather than being successfully deployed on production systems. This stems from the fact that support for DRM requires changes in all the layers of the HPC system software stack including applications, programming models, process managers, and resource management software, as well as an extensive and holistic co-design process to establish new techniques and policies for scheduling and resource optimization. In this work, we therefore start with the assumption that resources are accessible by processes executed either on them (e.g., on CPU) or controlling them (e.g., GPU-offloading). Then, the overall DRM problem can be decomposed into dynamic process management (DPM) and dynamic resource mapping or allocation (DRA). The former determines which processes (or which change in processes) must be managed and the latter identifies the resources where they will be executed. The interfaces for such \mbox{DPM/DPA} in these layers need to be standardized, which requires a careful design to be interoperable while providing high flexibility. Based on a survey of existing approaches we propose design principles, that form the basis of a holistic approach to DMR in HPC and provide a prototype implementation using MPI.