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A globally implemented unified phylogenetic classification for human respiratory syncytial virus (HRSV) below the subgroup level remains elusive. We formulated global consensus of HRSV classification on the basis of the challenges and limitations of our previous proposals and the future of genomic surveillance. From a high-quality curated dataset of 1,480 HRSV-A and 1,385 HRSV-B genomes submitted to GenBank and GISAID (https://www.gisaid.org) public sequence databases through March 2023, we categorized HRSV-A/B sequences into lineages based on phylogenetic clades and amino acid markers. We defined 24 lineages within HRSV-A and 16 within HRSV-B and provided guidelines for defining prospective lineages. Our classification demonstrated robustness in its applicability to both complete and partial genomes. We envision that this unified HRSV classification proposal will strengthen HRSV molecular epidemiology on a global scale.

BackgroundTo date, it is still not clear why during the COVID-19 pandemic children generally developed no or milder symptoms compared to adults. As innate immune responses are crucial in the early defense against pathogens, we aimed at profiling these responses from both adults and children with a primary SARS-CoV-2 infection.MethodsIn the first months of the pandemic, PBMCs and serum were collected from peripheral blood of adults and children at different time points after testing SARS-CoV-2 PCR positive (PCR+). The levels of SARS-CoV-2 Spike-specific IgG were measured in serum. The cells were cultured for 24 hours in medium only, with heat inactivated SARS-CoV-2 (iSARS-CoV-2) or toll-like receptor (TLR) ligands. The levels of secreted cytokines/chemokines as well as monocyte phenotype were determined.ResultsFew days after testing PCR+, PBMCs from PCR+ children secreted higher levels of cytokines/chemokines compared to PCR+ adults, after these cells were incubated either in medium only or after stimulation with iSARS-CoV-2 or TLR ligands. Furthermore, PBMCs from children stimulated with iSARS-CoV-2 secreted significantly higher levels of IL-10 and GM-CSF compared to PBMCs from control children. In contrast, PBMCs from the PCR+ adults secreted lower levels of IL-8 compared to adult controls. Phenotypic analysis of monocytes indicates a smaller proportion non-classical monocytes for adults compared to children. The distinct cytokine profiles, symptom severity, and the proportion of non-classical monocytes correlated to each other. The levels of Spike-specific IgG overtime did not significantly differ between children and adults.ConclusionsWithin the first week after testing PCR+, children showed a stronger inflammatory innate immune profile and experienced less severe symptoms compared to adults. Our data implies correlations between the secretion of cytokines/chemokines, proportion of non-classical monocytes, and symptoms severity. These findings enhance our understanding of the distinct pediatric and adult innate immune profile after SARS-CoV-2 infection and contributes to the knowledge necessary to improve future prevention strategies.

Objectives: The COVID-19 pandemic significantly changed respiratory viruses’ epidemiology due to non-pharmaceutical interventions and possible viral interactions. This study investigates whether the circulation patterns of respiratory viruses have returned to pre-pandemic norms by comparing their peak timing and duration during the first three SARS-CoV-2 seasons to pre-pandemic times. Methods: Global Influenza Surveillance and Response System data from 194 countries (2014-2023) was analyzed for epidemic peak timing and duration, focusing on pre-pandemic and pandemic periods across both hemispheres and the intertropical belt. The analysis was restricted to countries meeting specific data thresholds to ensure robustness. Results: In 2022/2023, the northern hemisphere experienced earlier influenza and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) peaks by 1.9 months (P

Abstract The SARS-CoV-2 pandemic has emphasized the need to explore how variations in the immune system relate to the severity of the disease. This study aimed to explore inter-individual variation in response to SARS-CoV-2 infection by comparing T cell, B cell, and innate cell immune subsets among primary infected children and adults (i.e., those who had never experienced SARS-CoV-2 infection nor received vaccination previously), with varying disease severity after infection. We also examined immune subset kinetics in convalescent individuals compared to those with persistent infection to identify possible markers of immune dysfunction. Distinct immune subset differences were observed between infected adults and children, as well as among adult cases with mild, moderate, and severe disease. IgM memory B cells were absent in moderate and severe cases whereas frequencies of B cells with a lack of surface immunoglobulin expression were significantly higher in severe cases. Interestingly, these immune subsets remained stable during recovery implying that these subsets could be associated with underlying baseline immune variation. Our results offer insights into the potential immune markers associated with severe COVID-19 and provide a foundation for future research in this area.

Abstract A two-step strategy combining assisted benchmark testing (entry controls) and External Quality Assessments (EQAs) with blinded simulated clinical specimens to enhance and maintain the quality of nucleic acid amplification testing was developed. This strategy was successfully applied to 71 diagnostic laboratories in The Netherlands when upscaling the national diagnostic capacity during the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic. The availability of benchmark testing in combination with advice for improvement substantially enhanced the quality of the laboratory testing procedures for SARS-CoV-2 detection. The three subsequent EQA rounds demonstrated high quality testing with regard to specificity (99.6% correctly identified) and sensitivity (93.3% correctly identified). Even with the implementation of novel assays, changing workflows using diverse equipment and a high degree of assay heterogeneity, the overall high quality was maintained using this two-step strategy. We show that in contrast to the limited value of Cq value for absolute proxies of viral load, these Cq values can, in combination with metadata on strategies and techniques, provide valuable information for laboratories to improve their procedures. In conclusion, our two-step strategy (preparation phase followed by a series of EQAs) is a rapid and flexible system capable of scaling, improving, and maintaining high quality diagnostics even in a rapidly evolving (e.g. pandemic) situation.

Abstract This study investigated the dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 infection and diagnostics in 242 household members of different ages and with different symptom severity after SARS-CoV-2 exposure early in the pandemic (March–April 2020). Households with a SARS-CoV-2 confirmed positive case and at least one child in the Netherlands were followed for 6 weeks. Naso (NP)- and oropharyngeal (OP) swabs, oral fluid and feces specimens were analyzed for SARS-CoV-2 RNA and serum for SARS-CoV-2-specific antibodies. The dynamics of the presence of viral RNA and the serological response was modeled to determine the sampling time-frame and sample type with the highest sensitivity to confirm or reject a SARS-CoV-2 diagnosis. In children higher viral loads compared to adults were detected at symptom onset. Early in infection, higher viral loads were detected in NP and OP specimens, while RNA in especially feces were longer detectable. SARS-CoV-2-specific antibodies have 90% probability of detection from 7 days (total Ig) and 18 days (IgG) since symptom onset. For highest probability of detection in SARS-CoV-2 diagnostics early in infection, RT-PCR on NP and OP specimens are more sensitive than on oral fluid and feces. For SARS-CoV-2 diagnostics late after infection, RT-PCR on feces specimens and serology are more valuable.

ABSTRACT Human metapneumovirus (HMPV) is one of the leading causes of respiratory illness (RI), primarily in infants. Worldwide, two genetic lineages (A and B) of HMPV are circulating that are antigenically distinct and can each be further divided into genetic sublineages. Surveillance combined with large-scale whole-genome sequencing studies of HMPV are scarce but would help to identify viral evolutionary dynamics. Here, we analyzed 130 whole HMPV genome sequences obtained from samples collected from individuals hospitalized with RI and partial fusion (n = 144) and attachment (n = 123) protein gene sequences obtained from samples collected from patients with RI visiting general practitioners between 2005 and 2021 in the Netherlands. Phylogenetic analyses demonstrated that HMPV continued to group in the four sublineages described in 2004 (A1, A2, B1, and B2). However, one sublineage (A1) was no longer detected in the Netherlands after 2006, while the others continued to evolve. No differences were observed in dominant (sub)lineages between samples obtained from patients with RI being hospitalized and those consulting general practitioners. In both populations, viruses of lineage A2 carrying a 180-nucleotide or 111-nucleotide duplication in the attachment protein gene became the most frequently detected genotypes. In the past, different names for the newly energing lineages have been proposed, demonstrating the need for a consistent naming convention. Here, criteria are proposed for the designation of new genetic lineages to aid in moving toward a systematic HMPV classification. IMPORTANCE Human metapneumovirus (HMPV) is one of the major causative agents of human respiratory tract infections. Monitoring of virus evolution could aid toward the development of new antiviral treatments or vaccine designs. Here, we studied HMPV evolution between 2005 and 2021, with viruses obtained from samples collected from hospitalized individuals and patients with respiratory infections consulting general practitioners. Phylogenetic analyses demonstrated that HMPV continued to group in the four previously described sublineages (A1, A2, B1, and B2). However, one sublineage (A1) was no longer detected after 2006, while the others continued to evolve. No differences were observed in dominant (sub)lineages between patients being hospitalized and those consulting general practitioners. In both populations, viruses of lineage A2 carrying a 180-nucleotide or 111-nucleotide duplication in the attachment protein gene became the most frequently detected genotypes. These data were used to propose criteria for the designation of new genetic lineages to aid toward a systematic HMPV classification.

ABSTRACT Enterovirus D68 (EV-D68) is an RNA virus that can cause outbreaks of acute flaccid paralysis (AFP), a polio-like disease. Before 2010, EV-D68 was a rare pathogen associated with mild respiratory symptoms, but the recent EV-D68 related increase in severe respiratory illness and outbreaks of AFP is not yet understood. An explanation for the rise in severe disease is that it may be due to changes in the viral genome resulting in neurotropism. In this regard, in addition to sialic acid, binding to heparan sulfate proteoglycans (HSPGs) has been identified as a feature for viral entry of some EV-D68 strains in cell lines. Studies in human primary organotypic cultures that recapitulate human physiology will address the relevance of these HSPG-binding mutations for EV-D68 infection in vivo. Therefore, in this work, we studied the replication and neurotropism of previously determined sialic acid-dependent and HSPG-dependent strains using primary human airway epithelial (HAE) cultures and induced human pluripotent stem cell (iPSC)-derived brain organoids. All three strains (B2/2042, B2/947, and A1/1348) used in this study infected HAE cultures and human brain organoids (shown for the first time). Receptor-blocking experiments in both cultures confirm that B2/2042 infection is solely dependent on sialic acid, while B2/947 and A1/1348 (HSPG to a lesser extent) binds to sialic acid and HSPG for cell entry. Our data suggest that HSPG-binding can be used by EV-D68 for entry in human physiological models but offers no advantage for EV-D68 infection of brain cells. IMPORTANCE Recent outbreaks of enterovirus D68, a nonpolio enterovirus, is associated with a serious neurological condition in young children, acute flaccid myelitis (AFM). As there is no antiviral treatment or vaccine available for EV-D68 it is important to better understand how EV-D68 causes AFM and why only recent outbreaks are associated with AFM. We investigated if a change in receptor usage of EV-D68 increases the virulence of EV-D68 in the airway or the central nervous system and thus could explain the increase in AFM cases. We studied this using physiologically relevant human airway epithelium and cerebral organoid cultures that are physiologically relevant human models. Our data suggest that heparan sulfate proteoglycans can be used by EV-D68 as an additional entry receptor in human physiological models but offers no advantage for EV-D68 infection of brain cells, and our data show the potential of these 46 innovative models for virology.

Since the 2009 influenza pandemic, the Netherlands has used a weekly death monitoring system to estimate deaths in excess of expectations. We present estimates of excess deaths during the ongoing coronavirus disease (COVID-19) epidemic and 10 previous influenza epidemics. Excess deaths per influenza epidemic averaged 4,000. The estimated 9,554 excess deaths (41% in excess) during the COVID-19 epidemic weeks 12–19 of 2020 appeared comparable to the 9,373 excess deaths (18%) during the severe influenza epidemic of 2017–18. However, these deaths occurred in a shorter time, had a higher peak, and were mitigated by nonpharmaceutical control measures. Excess deaths were 1.8-fold higher than reported laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 deaths (5,449). Based on excess deaths and preliminary results from seroepidemiologic studies, we estimated the infection-fatality rate to be 1%. Monitoring of excess deaths is crucial for timely estimates of disease burden for influenza and COVID-19. Our data complement laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 death reports and enable comparisons between epidemics.

BackgroundSevere acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) has led to considerable morbidity/mortality worldwide, but most infections, especially among children, have a mild course. However, it remains largely unknown whether infected children develop cellular immune memory.MethodsTo determine whether a memory T cell response is being developed, we performed a longitudinal assessment of the SARS-CoV-2-specific T cell response by IFN-γ ELISPOT and activation marker analyses of peripheral blood samples from unvaccinated children and adults with mild-to-moderate COVID-19.ResultsUpon stimulation of PBMCs with heat-inactivated SARS-CoV-2 or overlapping peptides of spike (S-SARS-CoV-2) and nucleocapsid proteins, we found S-SARS-CoV-2-specific IFN-γ T cell responses in infected children (83%) and adults (100%) that were absent in unexposed controls. Frequencies of SARS-CoV-2-specific T cells were higher in infected adults, especially several cases with moderate symptoms, compared to infected children. The S-SARS-CoV-2 IFN-γ T cell response correlated with S1-SARS-CoV-2-specific serum antibody concentrations. Predominantly, effector memory CD4+ T cells of a Th1 phenotype were activated upon exposure to SARS-CoV-2 antigens. Frequencies of SARS-CoV-2-specific T cells were significantly reduced at 10 months after symptom onset, while S1-SARS-CoV-2-specific IgG concentrations were still detectable in 90% of all children and adults.ConclusionsOur data indicate that an antigen-specific T cell and antibody response is developed after mild SARS-CoV-2 infection in children and adults. It remains to be elucidated to what extent this SARS-CoV-2-specific response can contribute to an effective recall response after reinfection.

Background: SARS-CoV-2 is taking a huge toll on society while influenza and RSV detection are also becoming more important. These viruses pose a high burden on health care. Rapid and accurate diagnostics for these pathogens are important for swift triage in the hospital. Fast molecular point of care test (mPOCT) assays for these pathogens can prove an alternative. Here a multi-center evaluation of the Xpert® Xpress SARS-CoV-2/Flu/RSV assay is reported. Study design: The Xpert® Xpress SARS-CoV-2/Flu/RSV assay was compared to three reference assays at three Dutch medical microbiology laboratories. An external quality assessment panel consisting of 16 specimens containing SARS-CoV-2, influenza viruses, RSV or human seasonal coronaviruses, or a combination thereof were used. Clinical specimens containing SARS-CoV-2 (n = 57), influenza viruses (n = 21) or RSV (n = 12), at a wide range of relevant concentrations were used. One laboratory also tested zoonotic avian and swine influenza viruses, and eight relevant SARS-CoV-2 variants. Results: The Xpert® Xpress SARS-CoV-2/Flu/RSV assay showed equal performance compared to the reference assays. All SARS-CoV-2 variants of interest and variants of concern were accurately detected. Human seasonal coronaviruses were not detected. All four circulating seasonal influenza virus subtypes/lineages and both RSV types were accurately detected as well as a set of recent zoonotic avian and swine influenza viruses. The clinical specimens showed 98.2% concordance using this assay. Conclusion: The Xpert® Xpress SARS-CoV-2/Flu/RSV assay is a good alternative for accurate detection for SARS-CoV-2, influenza type A virus, influenza type B virus and RSV types A and B detection in a short timeframe.

Improving COVID-19 intervention strategies partly relies on animal models to study SARS-CoV-2 disease and immunity. In our pursuit to establish a model for severe COVID-19, we inoculated young and adult male ferrets intranasally or intratracheally with SARS-CoV-2. Intranasal inoculation established an infection in all ferrets, with viral dissemination into the brain and gut. Upon intratracheal inoculation only adult ferrets became infected. However, neither inoculation route induced observable COVID-19 symptoms. Despite this, a persistent inflammation in the nasal turbinates was prominent in especially young ferrets and follicular hyperplasia in the bronchi developed 21 days post infection. These effects -if sustained- might resemble long-COVID. Respiratory and systemic cellular responses and antibody responses were induced only in animals with an established infection. We conclude that intranasally-infected ferrets resemble asymptomatic COVID-19 and possibly aspects of long-COVID. Combined with the increasing portfolio to measure adaptive immunity, ferrets are a relevant model for SARS-CoV-2 vaccine research.

The emergence of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) created an exceptional situation in which numerous laboratories in Europe simultaneously implemented SARS-CoV-2 diagnostics. These laboratories reported in February 2020 that commercial primer and probe batches for SARS-CoV-2 detection were contaminated with synthetic control material, causing delays of regional testing roll-out in various countries.

The adipose-specific phospholipase A2 (PLA2G16) has been identified as a pan-enterovirus host factor. Here, the authors show that the enterovirus EV-D68-947 can bypass PLA2G16 by using sulfated glycosaminoglycans as alternative glycan receptors and that the interaction induces structural changes promoting viral genome release.

Temporal variation of respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) epidemics was recently reported to be determined by the dominant RSV subtype. However, when we repeated the analysis for 4 countries in the Northern and Southern Hemispheres, the dominant subtype did not seem to affect temporal variation of RSV epidemics.

IntroductionWe aimed to develop an innovative population-based method to estimate the health effect of influenza vaccination based on electronic medical records collected within a general practitioner (GP)-based influenza surveillance system in the Netherlands.MethodsIn each season between 2006/07 and 2015/16, we fitted multilevel Poisson regression models to compare GP consultation rates for clinically diagnosed influenza, acute respiratory infections (ARI), pneumonia, and lower back pain (as a control) between vaccinated vs. unvaccinated individuals. Season-specific relative risks and 95% confidence intervals (CI) were pooled into summary risk ratio (SRR) through random-effects meta-analysis models. Analyses were stratified by patient age (ResultsOverall, 12.6% and 21.4% of study subjects were vaccinated because of their age only or because of an underlying medical condition. Vaccine uptake declined over time, especially among subjects aged ≤74 years with medical indications for vaccination. Vaccinated individuals had significantly higher GP consultation rates for clinically diagnosed influenza (SRR 1.24, 95% CI 1.12-1.38, p-value DiscussionContrary to expectations, influenza vaccinees have GP consultation rates for clinically diagnosed influenza, ARI and pneumonia that are 24-33% higher compared to unvaccinated individuals. The lower back pain finding suggests that the increase in consultation rates is partially caused by confounding. Importantly, considering the data are not laboratory-confirmed, our results cannot be linked directly to influenza, but only to respiratory illnesses in general.

Influenza-like illness (ILI) can be caused by a range of respiratory viruses. The present study investigates the contribution of influenza and other respiratory viruses, the occurrence of viral co-infections, and the persistence of the viruses after ILI onset in older adults. During the influenza season 2014–2015, 2366 generally healthy community-dwelling older adults (≥60 years) were enrolled in the study. Viruses were identified by multiplex ligation–dependent probe-amplification assay in naso- and oropharyngeal swabs taken during acute ILI phase, and 2 and 8 weeks later. The ILI incidence was 10.7%, which did not differ between vaccinated and unvaccinated older adults; influenza virus was the most frequently detected virus (39.4%). Other viruses with significant contribution were: rhinovirus (17.3%), seasonal coronavirus (9.8%), respiratory syncytial virus (6.7%), and human metapneumovirus (6.3%). Co-infections of influenza virus with other viruses were rare. The frequency of ILI cases in older adults in this 2014–2015 season with low vaccine effectiveness was comparable to that of the 2012–2013 season with moderate vaccine efficacy. The low rate of viral co-infections observed, especially for influenza virus, suggests that influenza virus infection reduces the risk of simultaneous infection with other viruses. Viral persistence or viral co-infections did not affect the clinical outcome of ILI.

ABSTRACT Since its emergence in the United States in 2014, enterovirus D68 (EV-D68) has been and is associated with severe respiratory diseases and acute flaccid myelitis. Even though EV-D68 has been shown to replicate in different neuronal cells in vitro, it is currently poorly understood which viral factors contribute to the ability to replicate efficiently in cells of the central nervous system and whether this feature is a clade-specific feature. Here, we determined the replication kinetics of clinical EV-D68 isolates from (sub)clades A, B1, B2, B3, and D1 in human neuroblastoma cells (SK-N-SH). Subsequently, we compared sequences to identify viral factors associated with increased viral replication. All clinical isolates replicated in SK-N-SH cells, although there was a large difference in efficiency. Efficient replication of clinical isolates was associated with an amino acid substitution at position 271 of VP1 (E271K), which was acquired during virus propagation in vitro. Recognition of heparan sulfate in addition to sialic acids was associated with increased attachment, infection, and replication. Removal of heparan sulfate resulted in a decrease in attachment, internalization, and replication of viruses with E271K. Taken together, our study suggests that the replication kinetics of EV-D68 isolates in SK-N-SH cells is not a clade-specific feature. However, recognition of heparan sulfate as an additional receptor had a large effect on phenotypic characteristics in vitro. These observations emphasize the need to compare sequences from virus stocks with clinical isolates in order to retrieve phenotypic characteristics from original virus isolates. IMPORTANCE Enterovirus D68 (EV-D68) causes mild to severe respiratory disease and is associated with acute flaccid myelitis since 2014. Currently, the understanding of the ability of EV-D68 to replicate in the central nervous system (CNS), and whether it is associated with a specific clade of EV-D68 viruses or specific viral factors, is lacking. Comparing different EV-D68 clades did not reveal clade-specific phenotypic characteristics. However, we did show that viruses which acquired a cell culture-adapted amino acid substitution in VP1 (E271K) recognized heparan sulfate as an additional receptor. Recognition of heparan sulfate resulted in an increase in attachment, infection, and replication in neuroblastoma cells compared with viruses without this specific amino acid substitution. The ability of EV-D68 viruses to acquire cell culture-adaptive substitutions which have a large effect in experimental settings emphasizes the need to sequence virus stocks.

Introduction: Influenza A(H3N2) viruses predominated in Europe in 2016–17. In 2017–18 A(H3N2) and A(H1N1)pdm09 viruses co-circulated. The A(H3N2) vaccine component was the same in both seasons; while the A(H1N1)pdm09 component changed in 2017–18. In both seasons, vaccine seed A(H3N2) viruses developed adaptations/alterations during propagation in eggs, impacting antigenicity. Methods: We used the test-negative design in a multicentre primary care case-control study in 12 European countries to measure 2016–17 and 2017–18 influenza vaccine effectiveness (VE) against laboratory-confirmed influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 and A(H3N2) overall and by age group. Results: During the 2017–18 season, the overall VE against influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 was 59% (95% CI: 47–69). Among those aged 0–14, 15–64 and ≥65 years, VE against A(H1N1)pdm09 was 64% (95% CI: 37–79), 50% (95% CI: 28–66) and 66% (95% CI: 42–80), respectively. Overall VE against influenza A(H3N2) was 28% (95% CI: 17–38) in 2016–17 and 13% (95% CI: −15 to 34) in 2017–18. Among 0–14-year-olds VE against A(H3N2) was 28% (95%CI: −10 to 53) and 29% (95% CI: −87 to 73), among 15–64-year-olds 34% (95% CI: 18–46) and 33% (95% CI: −3 to 56) and among those aged ≥65 years 15% (95% CI: −10 to 34) and −9% (95% CI: −74 to 32) in 2016–17 and 2017–18, respectively. Conclusions: Our study suggests the new A(H1N1)pdm09 vaccine component conferred good protection against circulating strains, while VE against A(H3N2) was

We describe the epidemiological characteristics, pattern of circulation, and geographical distribution of influenza B viruses and its lineages using data from the Global Influenza B Study. We included over 1.8 million influenza cases occurred in thirty-one countries during 2000-2018. We calculated the proportion of cases caused by influenza B and its lineages; determined the timing of influenza A and B epidemics; compared the age distribution of B/Victoria and B/Yamagata cases; and evaluated the frequency of lineage-level mismatch for the trivalent vaccine. The median proportion of influenza cases caused by influenza B virus was 23.4%, with a tendency (borderline statistical significance, p = 0.060) to be higher in tropical vs. temperate countries. Influenza B was the dominant virus type in about one every seven seasons. In temperate countries, influenza B epidemics occurred on average three weeks later than influenza A epidemics; no consistent pattern emerged in the tropics. The two B lineages caused a comparable proportion of influenza B cases globally, however the B/Yamagata was more frequent in temperate countries, and the B/Victoria in the tropics (p = 0.048). B/Yamagata patients were significantly older than B/Victoria patients in almost all countries. A lineage-level vaccine mismatch was observed in over 40% of seasons in temperate countries and in 30% of seasons in the tropics. The type B virus caused a substantial proportion of influenza infections globally in the 21st century, and its two virus lineages differed in terms of age and geographical distribution of patients. These findings will help inform health policy decisions aiming to reduce disease burden associated with seasonal influenza.

Influenza vaccine effectiveness (IVE) varies over different influenza seasons and virus (sub)types/lineages. To assess the association between IVE and circulating influenza virus (sub)types/lineages, we estimated the overall and (sub)type specific IVE in the Netherlands. We conducted a test-negative case control study among subjects with influenza-like illness or acute respiratory tract infection consulting the Sentinel Practices over 11 influenza seasons (2003/2004 through 2013/2014) in the Netherlands. The adjusted IVE was estimated using generalized linear mixed modelling and multiple logistic regression. In seven seasons vaccine strains did not match the circulating viruses. Overall adjusted IVE was 40% (95% CI 18 to 56%) and 20% (95% CI -5 to 38%) when vaccine (partially)matched and mismatched the circulating viruses, respectively. When A(H3N2) was the predominant virus, IVE was 38% (95% CI 14 to 55%). IVE against infection with former seasonal A(H1N1) virus was 83% (95% CI 52 to 94%), and with B virus 67% (95% CI 55 to 76%). In conclusion IVE estimates were particularly low when vaccine mismatched the circulating viruses and A(H3N2) was the predominant influenza virus subtype. Tremendous effort is required to improve vaccine production procedure and to explore the factors that influence the IVE against A(H3N2) virus.

In Europe, the 2007–08 winter season was dominated by influenza virus A (H1N1) circulation through week 7, followed by influenza B virus from week 8 onward. Oseltamivir-resistant influenza viruses A (H1N1) (ORVs) with H275Y mutation in the neuraminidase emerged independently of drug use. By country, the proportion of ORVs ranged from 0% to 68%, with the highest proportion in Norway. The average weighted prevalence of ORVs across Europe increased gradually over time, from near 0 in week 40 of 2007 to 56% in week 19 of 2008 (mean 20%). Neuraminidase genes of ORVs possessing the H275Y substitution formed a homogeneous subgroup closely related to, but distinguishable from, those of oseltamivir-sensitive influenza viruses A (H1N1). Minor variants of ORVs emerged independently, indicating multiclonal ORVs. Overall, the clinical effect of ORVs in Europe, measured by influenza-like illness or acute respiratory infection, was unremarkable and consistent with normal seasonal activity.

Avian influenza virus-infected poultry can release a large amount of virus-contaminated droppings that serve as sources of infection for susceptible birds. Much research so far has focused on virus spread within flocks. However, as fecal material or manure is a major constituent of airborne poultry dust, virus-contaminated particulate matter from infected flocks may be dispersed into the environment. We collected samples of suspended particulate matter, or the inhalable dust fraction, inside, upwind and downwind of buildings holding poultry infected with low-pathogenic avian influenza virus, and tested them for the presence of endotoxins and influenza virus to characterize the potential impact of airborne influenza virus transmission during outbreaks at commercial poultry farms. Influenza viruses were detected by RT-PCR in filter-rinse fluids collected up to 60 meters downwind from the barns, but virus isolation did not yield any isolates. Viral loads in the air samples were low and beyond the limit of RT-PCR quantification except for one in-barn measurement showing a virus concentration of 8.48 x 10(4) genome copies/m(3). Air samples taken outside poultry barns had endotoxin concentrations of ~50 EU/m(3) that declined with increasing distance from the barn. Atmospheric dispersion modeling of particulate matter, using location-specific meteorological data for the sampling days, demonstrated a positive correlation between endotoxin measurements and modeled particulate matter concentrations, with an R(2) varying from 0.59 to 0.88. Our data suggest that areas at high risk for human or animal exposure to airborne influenza viruses can be modeled during an outbreak to allow directed interventions following targeted surveillance.

BackgroundThe influence of prior seasonal influenza vaccination on the antibody response produced by natural infection or vaccination is not well understood.MethodsWe compared the profiles of antibody responses of 32 naturally infected subjects and 98 subjects vaccinated with a 2009 influenza A(H1N1) monovalent MF59-adjuvanted vaccine (Focetria, Novartis), with and without a history of seasonal influenza vaccination. Antibodies were measured by hemagglutination inhibition (HI) assay for influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 and by protein microarray (PA) using the HA1 subunit for seven recent and historic H1, H2 and H3 influenza viruses, and three avian influenza viruses. Serum samples for the infection group were taken at the moment of collection of the diagnostic sample, 10 days and 30 days after onset of influenza symptoms. For the vaccination group, samples were drawn at baseline, 3 weeks after the first vaccination and 5 weeks after the second vaccination.ResultsWe showed that subjects with a history of seasonal vaccination generally exhibited higher baseline titers for the various HA1 antigens than subjects without a seasonal vaccination history. Infection and pandemic influenza vaccination responses in persons with a history of seasonal vaccination were skewed towards historic antigens.ConclusionsSeasonal vaccination is of significant influence on the antibody response to subsequent infection and vaccination, and further research is needed to understand the effect of annual vaccination on protective immunity.

BackgroundWe assessed the severity of the 2009 influenza pandemic by comparing pandemic mortality to seasonal influenza mortality. However, reported pandemic deaths were laboratory-confirmed - and thus an underestimation - whereas seasonal influenza mortality is often more inclusively estimated. For a valid comparison, our study used the same statistical methodology and data types to estimate pandemic and seasonal influenza mortality.Methods and findingsWe used data on all-cause mortality (1999-2010, 100% coverage, 16.5 million Dutch population) and influenza-like-illness (ILI) incidence (0.8% coverage). Data was aggregated by week and age category. Using generalized estimating equation regression models, we attributed mortality to influenza by associating mortality with ILI-incidence, while adjusting for annual shifts in association. We also adjusted for respiratory syncytial virus, hot/cold weather, other seasonal factors and autocorrelation. For the 2009 pandemic season, we estimated 612 (range 266-958) influenza-attributed deaths; for seasonal influenza 1,956 (range 0-3,990). 15,845 years-of-life-lost were estimated for the pandemic; for an average seasonal epidemic 17,908. For 0-4 yrs of age the number of influenza-attributed deaths during the pandemic were higher than in any seasonal epidemic; 77 deaths (range 61-93) compared to 16 deaths (range 0-45). The ≥75 yrs of age showed a far below average number of deaths. Using pneumonia/influenza and respiratory/cardiovascular instead of all-cause deaths consistently resulted in relatively low total pandemic mortality, combined with high impact in the youngest age category.ConclusionThe pandemic had an overall moderate impact on mortality compared to 10 preceding seasonal epidemics, with higher mortality in young children and low mortality in the elderly. This resulted in a total number of pandemic deaths far below the average for seasonal influenza, and a total number of years-of-life-lost somewhat below average. Comparing pandemic and seasonal influenza mortality as in our study will help assessing the worldwide impact of the 2009 pandemic.

A key priority in infectious disease research is to understand the ecological and evolutionary drivers of viral diseases from data on disease incidence as well as viral genetic and antigenic variation. We propose using a simulation-based, Bayesian method known as Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) to fit and assess phylodynamic models that simulate pathogen evolution and ecology against summaries of these data. We illustrate the versatility of the method by analyzing two spatial models describing the phylodynamics of interpandemic human influenza virus subtype A(H3N2). The first model captures antigenic drift phenomenologically with continuously waning immunity, and the second epochal evolution model describes the replacement of major, relatively long-lived antigenic clusters. Combining features of long-term surveillance data from The Netherlands with features of influenza A (H3N2) hemagglutinin gene sequences sampled in northern Europe, key phylodynamic parameters can be estimated with ABC. Goodness-of-fit analyses reveal that the irregularity in interannual incidence and H3N2's ladder-like hemagglutinin phylogeny are quantitatively only reproduced under the epochal evolution model within a spatial context. However, the concomitant incidence dynamics result in a very large reproductive number and are not consistent with empirical estimates of H3N2's population level attack rate. These results demonstrate that the interactions between the evolutionary and ecological processes impose multiple quantitative constraints on the phylodynamic trajectories of influenza A(H3N2), so that sequence and surveillance data can be used synergistically. ABC, one of several data synthesis approaches, can easily interface a broad class of phylodynamic models with various types of data but requires careful calibration of the summaries and tolerance parameters.

BackgroundDespite impressive advances in our understanding of the biology of novel influenza A(H1N1) virus, little is as yet known about its transmission efficiency in close contact places such as households, schools, and workplaces. These are widely believed to be key in supporting propagating spread, and it is therefore of importance to assess the transmission levels of the virus in such settings.Methodology/principal findingsWe estimate the transmissibility of novel influenza A(H1N1) in 47 households in the Netherlands using stochastic epidemic models. All households contained a laboratory confirmed index case, and antiviral drugs (oseltamivir) were given to both the index case and other households members within 24 hours after detection of the index case. Among the 109 household contacts there were 9 secondary infections in 7 households. The overall estimated secondary attack rate is low (0.075, 95%CI: 0.037-0.13). There is statistical evidence indicating that older persons are less susceptible to infection than younger persons (relative susceptibility of older persons: 0.11, 95%CI: 0.024-0.43. Notably, the secondary attack rate from an older to a younger person is 0.35 (95%CI: 0.14-0.61) when using an age classification of 12 years, and 0.28 (95%CI: 0.12-0.50) when using an age classification of 18 years.Conclusions/significanceOur results indicate that the overall household transmission levels of novel influenza A(H1N1) in antiviral-treated households were low in the early stage of the epidemic. The relatively high rate of adult-to-child transmission indicates that control measures focused on this transmission route will be most effective in minimizing the total number of infections.

Accumulating infections of highly pathogenic H5N1 avian influenza in humans underlines the need to track the ability of these viruses to spread among humans. A human-transmissible avian influenza virus is expected to cause clusters of infections in humans living in close contact. Therefore, epidemiological analysis of infection clusters in human households is of key importance. Infection clusters may arise from transmission events from (i) the animal reservoir, (ii) humans who were infected by animals (primary human-to-human transmission), or (iii) humans who were infected by humans (secondary human-to-human transmission). Here we propose a method of analysing household infection data to detect changes in the transmissibility of avian influenza viruses in humans at an early stage. The method is applied to an outbreak of H7N7 avian influenza virus in The Netherlands that was the cause of more than 30 human-to-human transmission events. The analyses indicate that secondary human-to-human transmission is plausible for the Dutch household infection data. Based on the estimates of the within-household transmission parameters, we evaluate the effectiveness of antiviral prophylaxis, and conclude that it is unlikely that all household infections can be prevented with current antiviral drugs. We discuss the applicability of our method for the detection of emerging human-to-human transmission of avian influenza viruses in particular, and for the analysis of within-household infection data in general.