Search

The 2010 reform of the status of nurses in the French public hospital sector ended early retirement in exchange for an upgrading of pay scales. We provide an ex ante evaluation of this reform by comparing careers and pensions under the previous and current systems, using the Canopee microsimulation model for local civil servants and public hospital employees. At the individual level, over a nurse’s retired lifetime, the pension increase (27% on average for an annual salary increase of 1.3%) more than offsets the postponement of the retirement age (3.6 years). The outcome for the pension system as a whole depends on the discount assumptions., En 2010, le statut des infirmiers fonctionnaires a été réformé : sortie des emplois de la catégorie active en échange d’une revalorisation des grilles. Nous évaluons cette réforme ex ante en comparant la carrière et la retraite dans l’ancien et dans le nouveau statut avec le modèle de microsimulation Canopée appliqué aux fonctionnaires territoriaux et hospitaliers. Pour l’individu, sur l’ensemble de la retraite, la hausse de pension (en moyenne de 27% pour une hausse annuelle des salaires de 1,3 %) compense largement le report de l’âge de départ (de 3,6 ans). Pour le régime de retraite, le bilan dépend des hypothèses d’actualisation., Dorin Christophe, Marino Anthony, Rabaté Simon, Soulat Laurent. Évaluation de la réforme des infirmiers diplômés d’État sur les dynamiques de carrière et la retraite : une approche par microsimulation. In: Économie & prévision, n°218, 2021. pp. 23-43.

For the past 50 years, economists used the quantity theory of money to explain inflation. Monetarists, like Milton Friedman, view inflation as “everywhere a monetary phenomenon” and cite data comparing the quantity of money per unit of output (Real GDP) with CPI (inflation). Once scaled, the data appears strongly correlated. Critics state large action in the past decade by central banks did not lead to inflation. Recent research claims, “rapid money supply growth does not cause inflation...neither do rapid growth in government debt, declining interest rates, or rapid increases in a central bank’s balance sheet.” I test claims about the causes and predictability of inflation through a cross-country examination of different policies and their correlation with countries’ inflation rates. The study of inflation and its causes is important as the price mechanism is considered the mudsill of a functioning market, and countries aim to minimize large, unpredictable changes (hyperinflation, deflation). I examine empirical data from March 1959 - March 2020 in the United States through a multivariate linear regression model and then compare this with data from China 1996-2016 and Germany 1991-2020 as global references. I demonstrate the theoretical contradiction that, in the US, personal spending and high taxes correlate with inflation while government spending and monetary injections do not. I also demonstrate two key findings. First, interest rates appear to react to inflation rather than cause it. Second, there are no predictable causes of visible inflation in a global market. My results are inconclusive; yet the puzzling nature of their indications is evidence against broad monetary claims in general.

Estimates of accrued-to-date pension liabilities (ADL) should become more widely accessible to statisticians and decision makers in the near future, in application of new SNA requirements. This raises two questions: how can such estimates be routinely produced, and what for? Microsimulation helps in answering the first question of the “how.” It allows ADL computations that take into account the complexity of pension rules. Concerning the “what for” question, it is known that ADL are not an indicator of global financial sustainability. Messages they convey are more interesting at the micro level, from a household perspective. This fosters the case for microsimulation which spontaneously generates consistent micro/macro results. We illustrate these points using the French situation as a case study. We emphasize one aspect of French reforms that may concern other countries as well: the move to price indexation and the connection it creates between sustainability and growth assumptions.

We report an interesting and rare case of a vesicocutaneous fistula, which was diagnosed only one year following radiotherapy. A 71 year old gentleman presented with a gangrenous swelling of his left thigh. A copius amount of urine was seen to be draining from the site after initial incision and drainage. Computed tomography with contrast confirmed the diagnosis of a vesicocutaneous fistula. Bilateral nephrostomies were inserted to aid spontaneous closure of the fistula. Previous case reports of vesicocutaneous fistulae involving radiotherapy have described the complication of a fistula occurring many years after the intervention.

On December 1, 1945, the Ohio Department of Education made public the results of a test given to 2,304 selected seniors from Ohio High Schools—public, private, and parochial. The tests indicate that many Ohio High School seniors are woefully weak in simple arithmetic and are ignorant of much of the basic general information they should have mastered before the eighth grade. Education Director Clyde Hissong, in discussing the above results, asserted that “too many Ohio school children just don't know the answers.” He also indicated his suspicion that perhaps the teacher training schools and their products are at least partly to blame for the situation.

This paper re-evaluates the currently held view that unstable forms of conjugal unions depress fertility in the British Caribbean. It is shown that previous investigators overlooked the important variable of persistent male shortages at the mating ages caused by heavy male emigration. Fertility trends are observed and the conclusion reached that male emigration (independent variable) has not adversely affected fertility because the 'informal' polygynous character of the mating system acts as an intermediate variable mitigating the effect of the independent variable on fertility. Given these male shortages it is argued that a trend toward greater stability in conjugal relations would not, as previously assumed, result in higher fertility because permanent female celibacy and the average age of first entry into sexual unions for females would rise. Finally, the paper concludes by commenting on a recent discussion concerning the causal relationship between male shortages and the persistence of marital instability in the British Caribbean. The position is taken that both of these conditions are caused by social and economic factors which are not likely to change in the near future.

J. Mayone Styces et al Clinics Contraception and Communication: Evaluation Studies of Family Planning Programs in Four Latin American Countries New York 1973 consists of 5 studies which offer useful evaluation of family planning programs in Mexico Honduras the Dominican Republic and Colombia. 3 study experimental radio campaigns and 2 examine the clinic drop-out problem. The 2 studies conducted in Mexico on the latter problem although not generally comparable contribute to an area of inquiry that has received very little attention. If family planning programs are to be effective at all women must be retained in the program for considerable lengths of time. To do that these studies show it will be necessary for family planning programs to reduce waiting time increase the quality of service adopt effective and efficient follow-up procedures and introduce self-evaluation procedures to spot their own strengths and weaknesses in recruiting serving and retaining clients. The remaining 3 reports describe mass media campaigns carried out in Honduras Colombia and the Dominican Republic. One of them conducted in Colombia compared the relative effectiveness of home visits distribution of pamphlets and radio. It found that impersonal communication can increase awareness and provide information but cannot be expected to trigger contraceptive action. The other 2 studies corroborate this conclusion in the reviewers opinion. Thus radio is a contributory condition that in certain circumstances can stimulate enough interest to move women to seek advice from friends relatives and trusted associates but is neither a necessary nor a sufficient condition to result in action.