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Forests in Dynamic Global Vegetation Models (DGVMs) have historically been simulated as area-averaged plant functional types in each gridcell instead of representing communities of trees of different sizes and ages (demography). Just as the behaviour of a tree differs according to its ontogeny, so the behaviour of forests is known to differ depending on their demography. Accurately simulating demography is therefore key in order to address questions on afforestation and management strategies, as well as assessments of resilience of forests to disturbances such as drought and fire or diversity changes after a disturbance. Ultimately, demography determines the overall forest biomass in natural forests and is a key arbiter of growth and mortality rates. DGVMs are now able to simulate size and age structure of the trees in forests. However, these models have so far not been benchmarked alongside each other.We evaluate 6 DGVMs (BiomeE, CABLE-POP, FATES, LPJ-GUESS, JULES-RED, ORCHIDEE) against observations on regrowth dynamics as well as natural forests at boreal, temperate and tropical sites. We examine whether the models capture observed regrowth dynamics after disturbance, well-known stand size structure and well-established processes such as self-thinning. We outline the planned route forward towards a standardised international benchmarking framework for demographic DGVMs.

W dniach 15–17 marca 2022 r. w Instytucie Badawczym Leśnictwa odbyła się XII Sesja Zimowej Szkoły Leśnej, której tematem był „Wpływ zmian klimatu na środowisko leśne”. Spośród licznych propozycji, o wyborze powyższego tematu przesądziło obserwowane od wielu lat systematyczne pogorszanie się stanu zdrowotnego drzewostanów na skutek synergicznego oddziaływania wielu czynników abiotycznych i biotycznych w warunkach zmian klimatu. Współorganizatorem Sesji była Dyrekcja Generalna Lasów Państwowych. Merytoryczne aspekty XII Sesji zostały przygotowane i opracowane przez Radę Programową Zimowej Szkoły Leśnej w składzie: dr hab. Krzysztof Stereńczak, prof. IBL (przewodniczący), prof. dr hab. Bogdan Brzeziecki, mgr inż. Michał Graczyk, prof. dr hab. Andrzej Grzywacz, prof. dr hab. Andrzej Jagodziński, prof. dr hab. Janusz Olejnik, mgr inż. Jan Tabor, mgr inż. Krzysztof Rostek, prof. dr hab. Iwona Skrzecz, dr inż. Klaudia Ziemblińska. Rada Programowa określiła nie tylko zakres problematyki XII Sesji, ale także propozycje tematyczne referatów zamawianych oraz ich autorów. W trakcie trzech dni obrad prelegenci przedstawili 33 referaty. Referaty wygłosili również zaproszeni goście zagraniczni reprezentujący: Uniwersytet w Helsinkach, Czeski Uniwersytet Przyrodniczy w Pradze, Instytut Badań nad Zmianami Globalnymi (Czechy), Uniwersytet Wspólnoty Wirginii, Łotewski Państwowy Instytut Badawczy Leśnictwa oraz Integrated Carbon Observation System. W XII Sesji, która odbyła się w wersji online, wzięło udział niemal 200 osób reprezentujących m.in.: Ministerstwo Klimatu i Środowiska, jednostki organizacyjne Lasów Państwowych, ośrodki uniwersyteckie i instytuty badawcze. Liczne grono stanowili również przedstawiciele ośrodków naukowych oraz polskich uczelni leśnych.

Background Forest management affects the habitat conditions for many forest-dwelling species. Among them, the capercaillie (Tetrao urogallus) is a rare forest grouse inhabiting old, mature forests. We compared the structure of forest habitat among 9 active and 9 abandoned leks in the Augustów Forest (North-Eastern Poland), within a radius of 1 km of the leks, defined as the Key Areas for the capercaillie in lowland temperate forest. Habitat measurements were conducted on 1779 circular plots. Assessments made on all plots related to 13 habitat variables measured or noted in the field, including stand structure, canopy closure, stand developmental stage, percentage of Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris), soil fertility and soil moisture, the share of undergrowth, the cover of shrubs, the cover of bilberry (Vaccinium sp.), and the presence of certain habitat elements important to the capercaillie. Results To compare the still-occupied and the abandoned KAs for the capercaillie, a logistic regression model was developed. The variables best explaining differences between these two categories were: the occurrence of undergrowth layers, canopy closure in the second canopy layer, and stand age. According to the model, with the increase of the shrub-layer cover as well as the density of trees, the probability of the presence of the capercaillie decreased. The capercaillie in the area of the Augustów Forest occupy mainly dry and poor, middle-aged, pine-dominated forests, with a moderate extent of stand canopy closure and only weakly-developed layers of undergrowth. Conclusions The filling-in of mature stands with sub-canopy trees and shrubs (the process which is stimulated by climate change and site eutrophication) causes structural changes, which are unfavourable to the capercaillie. This might explain why in the course of the recent decades the capercaillie has abandoned the oldest stands, distinguished by the presence of bigger shares of undergrowth. The capercaillie has shifted to younger stands, which reveal a lesser extent of canopy closure and a more limited development of understorey vegetation.

Aim: Old-growth, mesic temperate forests are often assumed to be structured by gap-phase processes, resulting in quasi-equilibrial long-term dynamics. This assumption influences management focused on simulation of natural disturbance dynamics and is embedded in most models of forest successional dynamics. We use multi-decade monitoring of permanent plots in old-growth forests to assess demographic assumptions directly with respect to tree mortality rates. Location: Sixteen sites in mesic, temperate old-growth forests in eastern North America and Europe with multi-decade monitoring. Time period: Variable across sites, spanning c. 20%78 years from 1936 to 2014. Major taxa studied: Tree species of late-successional, cool-temperate forests of Europe and eastern North America. Methods: We calculated and compared the annualized mortality rates (m), with confidence intervals, by species, size class and measurement interval, for tree species of sufficient abundance. Results: Retrospective analysis shows dynamic and diverse demographic properties across populations and sites. Stand-scale mortality rates of 0.7%2.5%/ year average higher than previous estimates for old-growth temperate forests. Variations among species, over time and among size classes, suggest that gap-phase models are inadequate to explain stand dynamics, implying instead that rare disturbance events of moderate severity have long-lasting effects in old-growth forests and that indirect anthropogenic influences affect old-growth, unlogged forests. Main conclusions: Multi-decade baseline data, essential for understanding community assembly and long-term dynamics in these %slow systems,% are rare and poorly integrated. Our analysis demonstrates the value of the few long-term, %legacy% data sets. Results suggest that differences in life history interact with complex disturbance histories, resulting in non-equilibrial dynamics in old-growth temperate tree communities, and that changes in disturbance patterns through anthropogenic climate change might, there%fore, be an important driver of ecosystem change.

The work detailed here in the context of the above project sought to determine changes in the gene pool (at the DNA level) in a stand of Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.), under the influence of various kinds of forest-tending cuts. The experimental area on which the research was focused is located in Poland’s Ostrow Mazowiecka Forest District. Genetic structure was specified using five nuclear SSR sequences and six chloroplast SSR loci, while the five thinning variants trialled were sanitation cutting, low thinning of 30% intensity, schematic thinning, selective thinning and destructive lumbering. The control variant was left untreated. It was virtual rather than real-life thinning that was pursued, using the ForestSimulator BWINPro program. Changes in the structure of the stand after a further 10 years were also simulated. The different thinning variants were shown to cause change in the gene pool and level of genetic diversity of trees in the study area. In terms of maintaining genetic variability in the stand, the least-favourable method proved to be thinning from below. Destructive selection cutting was in turn most beneficial in terms of the preservation of genetic structure, with the reduction in rare alleles being more limited than in any other analysed variant. It was with the selective thinning variant that the final number of trees, stand structure and level of genetic variation resembled the situation in the control most closely. This suggests that selective thinning provides for a rather accurate replication of processes occurring in nature.

Currently, Brzeziecki et al. 2016 (Journal of Vegetation Science 27: 460–467.) are using data from permanent study plots established in 1936 in Bialowieza National Park (NE Poland) to develop theoretical equilibrium tree size distributions and to then compare modelled and actual distributions with a view to assessing the population dynamics of the species involved. As part of their discussion, the authors address the question of possible consequences for the overall diversity of forest ecosystems under strict protection if long-term trends relating to tree population densities and size structures are maintained. In the overall context of the above, the goal of the present paper is to respond to Jaroszewicz et al. (Journal of Vegetation Science 28: 218–222.) who suggest that the paper of Brzeziecki et al. (2016) is not representative for the whole Bialowieza National Park, and that – in this connection – strict protection should not be seen as a cause for concern. In this paper, we show that the data analysed by Brzeziecki et al. (2016) adequately characterize conditions in the wider Park. We also point out that the thorough scientific understanding of the long-term dynamics of woodland communities under strict protection should indeed be taken into account as efforts are made to arrive at an effective conservation strategy capable of ensuring that the uniquely valuable features of the Bialowieza Forest are retained.

Bialowieza Virgin Forest in northeastern Poland is one of the greatest treasures of the international conservation community for its high degree of naturalness, large area and long status of protection. Over seven decades of intensive measurements revealed substantial changes in tree species composition. In the early 20th century, Bialowieza Forest was dominated by Norway spruce, Scots pine and pedunculate oak. The densities of these species declined in subsequent decades, while those of hornbeam and small-leaved lime increased. We applied a recently developed concept of growth dominance to explore how the changes in species abundance and size structure may have influenced growth processes. Growth dominance is a statistical characteristic that is based on the Lorenz curve and combines cumulative sizes of trees with the corresponding cumulative growth rates. Despite the substantial changes in size distributions and growth dominance curves, the species populations remained in the phase of “reverse growth dominance” throughout the long monitoring period. This is a state typical of undisturbed, old-growth forests, where small trees grow disproportionately more for their size than large trees. The two formerly dominant species Norway spruce and pedunculate oak showed symmetric growth dominance, while the two increasing species hornbeam and small-leaved lime exhibited asymmetric growth dominance. Interestingly we also observed much larger variation in the growth dominance patterns of hornbeam and lime compared to spruce and oak. The findings seem to suggest that the unusual growth dominance patterns are related to the changing species composition.

Manifold benefits and advantages of mixed tree stands have been known for many decades. However, while developing and maintaining multiaged and mixed-species forests with complex stand structures has often been advocated and has recently become a worldwide priority, it is not a simple task. One important reason for this is a lack of appropriate methods for controlling long-term development of such stands. Here, we present a possible solution for this problem by applying the demographic equilibrium approach to guide stocking and structure regulation in mixed stands. We tested the practical usefulness of this approach using permanent-plot inventories from 2002, 2011 and 2018, in mixed tree stands in the Experimental Sustainability Unit (ESU) Browsk 28C, in the managed part of Bialowieza Forest (NE Poland). For our analysis, ESU Browsk 28C (about 30 ha) was treated as a silvicultural planning unit. First, on the basis of target stand types defined in Polish Silvicultural Guidelines (2012) and forest sites occurring at the study site, desirable tree species composition was determined. Eleven tree species of varying life histories and ecological attributes were included: aspen, birch, alder, pine, oak, maple, ash, elm, spruce, lime, and hornbeam. In the second step equilibrium diameter distributions were constructed for each species, taking into account species-specific growth and mortality rates, as well as targeted proportional representation. Next, theoretical species-specific equilibrium diameter distributions were visually and quantitatively compared with empirical distributions from permanent sample plots. Finally, departures of empirical from theoretical distributions served as a basis for silvicultural recommendations and prescriptions. We prioritized silvicultural measures (such as patch cuts opening larger gaps in forest canopy, proper site treatment, planting, protection against browsing by large herbivores), promoting compositionally diverse forest reproduction and recruitment as essential to long-term maintenance of demographic sustainability in mixed forest stands. We conclude that the demographic equilibrium approach is particularly valuable for creating and maintaining complex forest structures in multi-species stands.

Questions Does the size structure characterizing particular tree species in natural forest stands converge towards a steady state? What is the main reason for departures of observed tree size distributions from equilibrium models? What is the consequence of long-term strict protection for the demography of tree species and the conservation of associated biota? Location Stands of natural forest in Bialowieza National Park (NE Poland) that have been under strict protection for about 90 yr. Methods Data on recruitment, growth and mortality of approximately 10 000 trees representing 11 species (aspen, birch, alder, pine, oak, maple, ash, elm, spruce, lime and hornbeam), from seven replicated surveys of five permanent monitoring plots (total size = 15.44 ha), established in 1936, were used to derive theoretical, species-specific equilibrium distributions as a basis for evaluating the demographic changes of the species involved. Results Over a monitoring period of 76 yr, there were strong downward trends in the population densities of several tree species of different successional status and light requirements. A vast majority of the conspecific equilibrium curves, modelled on the basis of growth and mortality data, revealed a ‘rotated sigmoid’ shape when plotted in semi-log plots. In contrast to these equilibrium curves, the observed tree size distributions of most species were unimodal, at both the beginning and the end of the study period. Departures between theoretical and observed distributions increased over time, particularly for shade-intolerant and intermediate species. Conclusions The populations of several tree species occurring in the Bialowieza National Park are demographically unstable – a fact reflected in large and steadily increasing differences between theoretical and actual tree size distributions. The main reason for this are the insufficient recruitment rates typical of most species. Some tree species may very soon disappear almost entirely, and this will certainly lead to far-reaching changes in the functioning of local forest communities. Among other consequences, the current demographic trends, as observed for Bialowieza tree species, are very likely to have a strong effect on the long-term survival of numerous forest organisms (such as insects, fungi, lichens, etc.), which depend, directly or indirectly, on the presence and balanced demography of particular tree species.

• Key message Long-term strict protection of woodland communities may lead to their compositional simplification and homogenisation. • Context In the past, it has often been postulated that structures and processes typical for natural forests should be mimicked by silvicultural activities in the case of managed tree stands. • Aims To determine which features and traits of natural woodland communities (alongside typical old-growth attributes) should be imitated in managed forests, as well as which should not (and for what reasons). • Methods Tree data from five permanent study plots (of a total area of 15.44 ha) established in 1936 in the core area of the Białowieża National Park (NE Poland) are used to calculate several quantitative indices describing the temporal dynamics (in terms of stand structure and composition) of eight major woodland community types. • Results Most structural attributes revealed rather high stability over time. In contrast to these, during the observation period, noticeable changes in the composition of particular Białowieża woodland communities have been taking place, related to declining occurrence and reduced roles characteristic for a large number of tree species. • Conclusion In many ways, natural forests can serve as an important model for managed forest stands. However, in certain circumstances, silvicultural treatments counteracting natural developmental trends may appear to be indispensable, especially when more diverse and stable tree species composition (at a given spatial and temporal scale) is indicated or desirable.

Question: What are the main driving factors in 70 years of natural dynamics in tree recruitment in the Bialowieza National Park? Location: Bialowieza National Park, Poland, is one of the least disturbed temperate, lowland forest systems in Europe. Methods: We tested whether fluctuations in large herbivore populations, changes in climate and openness of the forest explained compositional dynamics. Tree recruitment (to size class DBH≥5 cm) was measured on permanent transects (in total, 14.9 ha) six times between 1936-2002. These data were related to existing data on ungulate density, climatic parameters and estimates of forest openness collected during the same period. Results: Total recruitment of all tree species combined was negatively correlated with total ungulate density and red deer density. The variation in response between species was related to the preferences of herbivores; the more preferred forage species (especially Carpinus betulus) were positively and the less preferred species negatively related to herbivore density. Total tree recruitment rates were not related to climatic parameters and openness of the forest. Only Alnus glutinosa recruitment was significantly related to climatic parameters, and Ulmus glabra related to forest openness, but there were no predictable patterns in recruitment among species in relation to these factors. Conclusion: The present study indicated that changes in large herbivore density have played an important role in driving patterns in tree recruitment and species composition during the last 70 years in Bialowieza National Park. In contrast to other studies, increasing herbivore numbers were associated with higher recruitment of preferred and browsing-tolerant species. Periodical crashes in ungulate numbers, whether human-induced or caused by natural factors, may offer windows of opportunity for regeneration of a range of tree species and facilitate more diverse and dynamic forest development.

Summary 1. Fires are nowadays small, yet frequent, in temperate Central European conifer forests, but little is known about the fire history in this region. This is likely due to the lack of intact forests that contain old trees and dead wood from which fire history may be reconstructed. An exception is the Bialowieza Primeval Forest (BPF) in Poland for which we were able to reconstruct the fire history in detail. 2. From 886 tree ring samples collected in a 13-ha conifer-dominated area, we reconstructed fire events and tree establishment back to the mid 1600s. From 1653 to the late 1700s fires were very frequent, with mean point (single tree) fire intervals of 18 years and mean stand scale fire intervals of 6 years. After 1781, the intervals between the fires increased dramatically, and since 1874 no major fire was recorded. 3. Tree establishment underwent substantial changes, closely tracking shifts in fire frequency. When fires were frequent, Pinus sylvestris establishment occurred only sporadically. Later, less frequent fires promoted massive establishment of both P. sylvestris and Picea abies. At present, only P. abies and a few deciduous trees regenerate. 4. Synthesis. We present the first high-resolution fire history in the Central European temperate lowland forest area. The discovery of old P. sylvestris trees and stumps with fire scars in many conifer-dominated parts of BPF show that fire was a major component in the past dynamics of this forest. We also show that historically, fires were recurring at very close intervals, supporting an open, Pinus-dominated forest. These result contrasts with the written history of BPF, which focus on a few, large fires from the past. Human influence on the fire regime was probably substantial, although the disentangling of climatic and human impacts needs further studies. We propose that fire should be increasingly taken into consideration in models of disturbance, vegetation development and forest openness in the whole Central European lowland forest region.

Forest succession depends strongly on the life history strategies of individual trees. An important strategic element is the ability to survive unfavourable environmental conditions that result in strongly reduced tree growth. In this study, we investigated whether the relationship between growth and mortality differs among tree species and site conditions. We analysed 10 329 trees of nine tree species (Picea abies, Taxus baccata, Fagus sylvatica, Tilia cordata, Carpinus betulus, Fraxinus excelsior, Quercus robur, Betula spp. and Alnus glutinosa) from unmanaged forests of Europe: the continental

The results of a long-term study on the natural forest dynamics of two forest communities on one sample plot within the Białowieża National Park in Poland are presented. The two investigated forest communities consist of the Pino-Quercetum and the Tilio-Carpinetum type with the major tree species Pinus sylvestris, Picea abies, Betula sp., Quercus robur, Tilia cordata and Carpinus betulus. The results reveal strong temporal dynamics of both forest communities since 1936 in terms of tree species composition and of general stand structure. The four major tree species Scots pine, birch, English oak and Norway spruce, which were dominant until 1936, have gradually been replaced by lime and hornbeam. At the same time, the analysis of structural parameters indicates a strong trend towards a homogenization of the vertical stand structure. Possible causes for these dynamics may be changes in sylviculture, climate change and atmospheric deposition. Based on the altered tree species composition it can be concluded that a simple ≪copying≫ (mimicking) of the processes taking place in natural forests may not guarantee the conservation of the multifunctional character of the respective forests.

The demand for wide range and precise information on forests promotes continuous development of forest inventory methods, owing to the fact that compilation of reliable data is prerequisite not only for improving forest management schedules but also planning land use and natural environment management. In the reality of contemporary forestry, a requirement to improve forest inventory methods stems from obligation to acquire information on broadly understood issues of forestry as well as the protection of nature and environment. The paper points out to the essential steps, as said by the authors, on the way to the improvement of now used forest inventory methods and calls attention to remote sensing technologies such as ortophotomaps and aerial lidar data. The revisions proposed concern gathering information on: site conditions, species diversity, forest stock range as well as sample size and work scope on sampling areas. At the same time, in view of surveying the dynamics of forest change, there is recommended the use of permanent observation plots, especially in mountainous forests.

In this ecological risk assessment we evaluated potential climate-induced vegetation changes in mountain forests of Central Europe and possible impacts on species richness. The analysis was performed on all lkm grid points of the Swiss forest inventory (c. 11500 points) as well as on two subsets representing the forested points within the geographical limits of two inventories of legally protected reserve areas. The core of the approach is (a) a conceptual model of the movement of climatic ranges along altitudinal gradients as a result of global warming and (b) a spatially explicit forest community simulator that predicts a potential natural vegetation unit for any given 1 km grid point of the Swiss forest inventory for both current climate and for altered climate regimes. The model is derived from empirical data featuring the relationships between quasi-natural vegetation types and measured site variables. Species richness for any modelled forest community is estimated on the basis of phytosociological releves.

A spatially explicit, climate-sensitive vegetation model is presented to simulate both present and future distribution of potential natural vegetation types in Switzerland at the level of zonal forest communities. The model has two versions: (1) a ‘basic’ version using geographical region, aspect, bedrock (represented by soil pH), and elevation, and (2) a ‘climate-sensitive’ version obtained by replacing elevation (complex environmental gradient) with temperature (climatic factor). Version 2 is used to predict vegetation response under different (today's and projected) climatic conditions. Two regional climate scenarios are applied: (1) assuming an annual mean temperature increase of 1.1 — 1.4 °C, and (2) assuming an increase of 2.2 — 2.75 °C. Both scenarios result in significant changes of the spatial vegetation patterns as compared with today's climatic conditions. In scenario 1, ca. 33 % of the sample points remain unchanged in terms of the simulated zonal forest community; in scenario 2, virtually all sample points change. The most noticeable changes occur on the Swiss Plateau with Carpinion forests (zonal vegetation of present colline belt) expanding to areas that are occupied today by submontane and low-montane Fagus forests. To estimate the reliability of the simulation, quantitative (comparison with field mapping) and qualitative (comparison with climate types in the Alpine region) tests are performed and the main limitations of the approach are evaluated.

The paper describes the structure and the developmental trends of old-growth Pinus sylvestris stands in the Wigry National Park, in north-eastern Poland. The stands represent a transitional zone between deciduous forests of Central Europe and boreal, coniferous forests of north-eastern Europe. Besides P. sylvestris, the most important tree species are Picea abies and Quercus robur. Among the subcanopy species, Corylus avellana and Sorbus aucuparia occur most frequently. On the basis of the data from 6 permanent sample plots (total size: 1.90 ha), several parameters and stand indices are analysed including species composition of the canopy and the regeneration, diameter distribution, age structure of main tree species, and the relationship between canopy and spatial dispersion of woody regeneration. The most striking feature of the stands studied is the almost complete absence of natural regeneration of P. sylvestris. This seems to be in contradiction with the apparently natural origin of this species in the stands, and a common occurrence of natural disturbances resulting in openings and gaps in forest canopy. The main tree species replacing P. sylvestris in the canopy are P. abies and Q. robur. Also increasing are some broad-leaved species typical of high fertility sites: Acer platanoides, Tilia cordata, Ulmus glabra, and Fraxinus excelsior. A shrub C. avellana occurs extensively competing with tree species and delaying tree replacement processes. While no direct data on the changes in the site conditions can be provided and the ‘recovery’ hypothesis appears to be the most straightforward explanation of the changes in P. sylvestris stands, the possible role of the allogenic changes in environmental conditions (climate warming, nitrogen deposition) is also discussed.

In forest succession studies, two major groups of tree species are usually recognized: pioneer and non-pioneer (climax) species. It is assumed that each group has its own set of adaptive traits that impart advantages or disadvantages to trees in early-and late-successional stages. In the present paper, the pioneer/climax concept is tested for 36 major European tree species, whose ontogenetic and ecological attributes (in total 21 variables) were compiled from the literature and analyzed by multivariate statistical methods. On this basis, a new ecological classification of tree species is proposed and interpreted in terms of the theoretical, triangular model of life-history strategies developed by Grime. For each type of life-history strategy (ruderal, stress-tolerant, competitive and intermediate), specific adaptations determining the functional roles of tree species in the dynamics of forest communities are identified and described.

Using empirical data (ca. 7500 phytosociological releves), a simple, probabilistic ‘vegetation-site’ model was developed, to simulate geographical distribution of 71 forest community types, representing the potential natural vegetation (PNV) of Switzerland. The model was interfaced to a geographic information system (GIS) and used to generate a numerical vegetation map, on the basis of digital maps of 12 environmental variables including climatic conditions (temperature and precipitation), topography (elevation, slope, aspect), and soil parameters (soil pH and physical soil parameters). The predicted distribution of forest communities was compared with several vegetation maps, prepared for some subregions of Switzerland by means of traditional field methods. Similarity ranged from 50 to 80 %, depending on the community type, level of vegetational hierarchy and the geographical region. The current resolution and accuracy of the simulated vegetation map allows us to study the vegetational patterns on the level of the entire country or its major geographical and climatic regions. The simulated vegetation map is potentially an important tool in ecological risk assessment studies concerning the possible impacts of climate change on the ecological potential of forest sites and biological diversity of forest communities.

Die Problematik einer vom Menschen mitverursachten Klimaanderung beschaftigt nicht nur die Klimatologie selbst, sondern auch die Natur- und Landschaftsschutzpraxis (Dobson et al., 1989; Halpin, 1994; Peters, 1990; Peters und Darling, 1985; Peters und Lovejoy, 1992). Dabei geht es in erster Linie darum, ob die Artenvielfalt bei moglichen grossraumigen Vegetations-und Landnutzungsveranderungen langfristig erhalten bleibt oder ob mit drastischen Verlusten der Artenzahl gerechnet werden muss. Weiter ist fur die Praxis von grossem Interesse, ob die Schutzziele der zwangslaufig ortsgebundenen Natur- und Landschaftsschutzgebiete aufrechterhalten werden konnen oder ob sie an die veranderten Klimabedingungen angepasst werden mussen. Solche Risikoabschatzungen lassen sich — zumindest was die Vegetation anbelangt — mit Hilfe von computergestutzten Modellen durchfuhren. Risikoabschatzungen sind keine Prognosen, sondern dienen dazu, die okologischen Auswirkungen von Umweltveranderungen nach bestem Wissen abzuschatzen (Graham et al., 1991).

The simultaneous equations model based on regression analysis was adopted to analyse relations between vegetation and environment in a forest reserve in the eastern part of Poland. It allowed a direct analysis of the vegetational variation caused by both environmental factors and interactions between species. In the system sampled several significant interrelations were found, and the ecological importance of particular factors and species was determined. Similar analysis performed by reciprocal averaging did not yield such satisfactory results, because of the equivocal correlation pattern between ecological variables and ordination axes, the dominance of the first axis and the exclusion of interspecific relations.

Vegetation data from an experiment on the impact of sewage sludge on woodland vegetation dynamics are analysed by ordination to examine the reaction of a forest community to sludge disturbance. Two different kinds of vegetational response are discussed in relation to horizontal patchiness of vegetation. It is suggested that the species-poor component of the vegetation mosaic observed reveals quicker recovery from sludge disturbance than the species-rich component, which is characterized by a more complicated network of interspecific relations. A high correlation between plot-scores on the first ordination axis and sludge dose is found, indicating that in the altered community the main vegetational gradient reflects the intensity of disturbance. An attempt is made to interpret the main gradients of vegetational variation in terms of ecological indicator values of species. It is concluded that the modified competitive ability of species in a changed environment plays the most important role in building up a new community structure.

This paper presents results of a long-term study on natural forest dynamics in the Bialowieza National Park (BNP), northeastern Poland. Five permanent sample areas were used, each consisting of a transect of varying width (40 - 60 m) and length (200 - 1380 m). The total sample area is 14.9 ha. The study covers the period 1936–1992. During this period measurements were made on five occasions at approximately 10-yr intervals. On each measurement date all trees with DBH > 5 cm were identified and their spatial location, diameter, crown condition and position in the canopy determined. During the study period the stands underwent noticeable changes, mainly in terms of tree species composition. The major change was a quantitative increase of the late-successional species: Tilia cordata and Carpinus betulus, also to a lesser degree Fraxinus excelsior and, in the last period, of the early successional Alnus glutinosa. Declining species included both early- and late-succession species. Among the latter group, Picea abies ranked first. This species lost much of its importance during the last few decades. P. abies was followed by Pinus sylvestris which is an important component of the climax vegetation under the conditions prevailing in Bialowieza, at least on more oligotrophic sites. Still, this species has not been able to regenerate during the whole study period. Some other late-succession species, Acer platanoides and Quercus robur, were also amongst the declining species. Although the basal area of Q. robur increased, its population was getting older and the process of natural regeneration was markedly impeded. All typical pioneer, short-lived species: Betula pendula and B. pubescens, Salix caprea and Populus tremula also decreased, which was probably caused by a lack of major disturbances during the study period. In general, the results obtained for the semi-natural conditions of Bialowieza during the 56-yr observation period suggest a rather high compositional instability of the forest stands there. A more precise identification of the role of particular factors in the observed stand dynamics is difficult because of the paucity of appropriate historical and environmental data which refer directly to the study plots; moreover, the data are generally incompatible and of different resolution.

An ecological risk assessment is described for determining the adaptation potential of the approximately 11 000 Swiss Forest Inventory points (FIP) to a hypothetically changing climate. The core of the study is a spatially explicit forest community model that generates estimates of the potential natural vegetation for the entire potential forest area of Switzerland under today's as well as under altered climate regimes. The model is based on the Bayes formula. The probabilities of the communities occurring along ecological gradients are derived from empirical data featuring the relationships between quasi-natural vegetation types and measured site variables. Bioclimatological input variables are the quotient between July temperature and annual precipitation (model version A) or mean annual temperature (model version B). Other site variables include aspect, acidity of top soil and, to account for continentality, geographical region. Climate change scenarios are defined as follows: 'Moderate climate change' implies an increase of the mean annual temperature of 4°C to 1.4°C depending on the region (model version B) or an increase of the July temperature of 1.5°C (model version A). ‘Strong climate change’ implies an increase of the mean annual temperature of 2°C to 2.8°C (model version B) or an increase of the July temperature of 3.0°C (model version A). The simulation experiment showed that the geographical distribution of 15 potential natural forest types (distinguished on the basis of floristic affinities) varies considerably with changing temperature. Under moderate warming 30–55% of the FIP change their potential natural vegetation type, whereas under strong climate change the values increase to 55–89% depending on the model version used. In the ecological risk assessment the existing tree species composition on any FIP was compared with the expected tree species composition under today's as well as under altered climate regimes. A major finding indicated that, under the current climate conditions, approximately 25–30% (depending on the model version used) of all FIP must be considered as poorly adapted, i.e. less than 20% of the actual basal area consists of tree species that are expected as dominating taxa. This definition applies for trees with a diameter at breast height (DBH) ≥ 12 cm. Moderate warming increases the percentage of poorly adapted FIP by 5–10% (relative to all FIP considered), strong warming leads to a 10–30% increase of poorly adapted FIP (relative to all FIP considered). If trees with a DBH