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Effective research-project assessment typically is impeded by project variety. In particular, bibliometric approaches to science assessment tend to offer little information about the content of the projects examined. We introduce here a new approach – based on Bayesian theory – of econometrically evaluating the factors affecting scientific discovery, and use the method to assess a biological research program comprised of numerous heterogeneous projects. Our knowledge metric not only flexibly accommodates project variety but accounts for information in “failed” as well as “successful” studies. Using a mean-absolute-deviation utility functional form to measure new scientific knowledge, we decompose knowledge gain into a mean-surprise and statistical-accuracy effect. The two effects are econometrically examined independently, and then combined into the net knowledge production function. Research FTE and distance to study site have statistically significant but moderate effects on the amount by which research shifts the prediction of scientific outcome. However, scientist education powerfully improves the research study’s predictive accuracy or precision, a one-percent boost in the average investigator’s formal schooling improving precision by 4.3 percent. Largely on the basis of that precision effect, increasing returns to research project scale are evident.

Using a sequence of decennial farm censuses, we examine Brazil’s agricultural performance over the last several decades as the economy shifted slowly from a producer-protected to liberalized environment. Those shifts provide the data for investigating Brazilian policy’s implications for agricultural competitiveness and efficiency. We decompose mean-farm total factor productivity into frontier productivity and efficiency change, each of the two influenced independently by government policy. National technology growth is found to have been an exceptionally high 4.5% per annum. Because, however, average farms were unable to keep pace with it, TFP growth has been a much smaller 2.6% per year. Although frontier producers in the south have outperformed their northern counterparts, TFP growth in the south has been lower than in the north. Benefits from Brazil’s agricultural research system have been tilted toward the farming sector's technological leaders, widening the productivity gap between frontier and average producer. Credit, education, and road construction policies have instead narrowed that gap., Replaced with revised version of poster 07/29/11.

We focus on regulations controlling the spread of noxious weeds, especially the trade effects of regulatory differences across U.S. states. We specify a gravity model for each state’s seed, nursery product, and commodity trade with each other state. Within the gravity model, we examine the role of cross-state regulatory congruence arising from ecological and agronomic characteristics and interest-group lobbying. A spatial-autoregressive Tobit model is estimated with a modified expectation-maximization algorithm. Results show that weed regulatory congruence positively affects interstate trade. By fostering cross-state regulatory differences, consumer and commodity-producer lobbying reduce the value of interstate trade by about two percent per annum.

The success of seed-fertilizer technologies and government subsidies in attaining nearly self-sufficient rice production in the mid-1980s encouraged the Indonesian government soon afterward to shift resources away from food crops and toward export-oriented crops. These shifts were reinforced by trade liberalization and a sharp devaluation of the rupiah after the 1997 Asian financial crisis, which exerted Indonesia’s comparative advantage in tropical perennial products. In the present paper, we ask whether such events have altered Indonesia’s agricultural growth strategy from a food-crop to an export-crop one. With an innovative multi-output stochastic distance frontier model and provincial production and policy-related data from 1985 to 2005, we estimate technology growth by agricultural subsector and efficiency improvement by political jurisdiction. The perennial-crop sector is found to have achieved the highest technology growth rate, followed by the livestock and annual-crop sectors. We find overall productivity growth to have been moderate, and suggest that little of it can be attributed to Indonesia’s public research efforts.