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At the onset of the COVID-19 economic crisis, as in other crisis episodes, we observed a rapid appreciation of "safe haven" currencies. We quantify currency-induced balance sheet valuation effects for aggregate external positions as well as for broadly defined asset classes for the first quarter and the full year 2020. To do so, we use new data on the currency composition of cross-border assets and liabilities for 46 countries. In contrast with past financial crises, many emerging markets did not experience losses on their aggregate external balance sheets despite facing a domestic currency depreciation. This was partly due to currency-induced valuation gains on equity positions offsetting losses on debt positions, and partly due to reduced currency mismatch on their external debt positions. We conduct the stock-flow reconciliation of net international investment positions to measure overall valuation effects and compute the proportion that is due to changes in currency values. For about half of the countries in our sample, currency-induced valuation effects were substantial, representing over 50 percent of total valuation effects in 2020Q1 and the full year 2020.

We analyze the macroeconomic consequences of foreign currency losses by banks, corporates and consumers. To that end, we construct a New Keynesian DSGE model with debt overhang for corporate borrowers, monitoring costs for household mortgage debt and leverage constraints for banks. The Hungarian experience at the end of 2008 and model estimation on Hungarian data motivate these particular financial frictions. Model simulation shows that making corporate borrowers bear currency risk results in worse macroeconomic outcomes than currency mismatch losses on bank balance sheets. Foreign currency mortgages to households, however, generate lower output losses than currency mismatch in the banking sector. The fact that households do not suffer from debt overhang contributes to this result. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article examines financial dollarization in Turkish banking sector during the 2002 Q4 – 2018 Q4 period. We find significant currency mismatch in banks' balance sheets: banks happen to transfer less than 30% of their foreign denominated deposits into foreign denominated credit. In addition, banks with greater currency imbalance are more likely to extend their domestic denominated currency loans. Although raising funds in foreign currency to lend in domestic currency can help banks increase their profits, this also increases banks' exposure to exchange rate risks. Further examination shows that banks continue facing great currency risk despite hedging through off-balance transactions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Based on the data of 70 developing countries during 1970–2015, we empirically study the relationship between international capital flows and domestic credit. We find that the sudden stop of debt‐led net capital inflows is significantly associated with a domestic credit crunch in developing countries. Moreover, we use the method of event analysis to discover that a flexible exchange rate regime offsets the severity of the credit crunch. These empirical findings are robust to different measures of sudden stops and endogeneity tests. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We attempt to uncover the relationship between the real exchange rates and exports shares of manufacturing firms in Turkey by taking into account FX exposures and various firm characteristics. We use a large panel of manufacturing firms to carry out an empirical analysis for the period 2002–2010. Contrary to macro-evidence, firm-level empirical evidence suggests that a depreciation of the Turkish lira seems to favor the external competitiveness of firms in general. We document that a real depreciation of the Turkish lira has a positive impact on export shares and its impact is muted to some extent for firms operating in sectors that use imported inputs intensively. In addition, we estimate that export shares increase as a result of real depreciation for firms having low (naturally hedged) and moderate FX debt-to-export ratios. We do not confirm a strong balance sheet channel where a depreciation of the currency may harm firms' export performance due to currency mismatch. On the contrary, FX borrowing is estimated to support export performance probably due to undermining finance constraints. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

How do emerging market corporates fare during periods of currency depreciation? We find that nonfinancial firms that exploit favorable global financing conditions to issue U.S. dollar bonds and build cash balances are also those whose share price is most vulnerable to local currency depreciation. In particular, firms' vulnerability to currency depreciation derives less from the foreign currency debt as such, and more from the cash balances that are built up by using foreign currency debt. Overall, our results point to a financial motive for dollar bond issuance by emerging market firms in carry trade–like transactions that leave them vulnerable in an environment of dollar strength. This paper was accepted by Gustavo Manso, finance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The focus of this research is the identification of the fear of floating (FOF) problem as a vulnerable ground for employing the exchange rate (ER) as a shock absorber with consequent limitations for expenditure-switching external adjustment mechanism. This research aims to fill the literature gap stressing the connection between FOF and the functioning of expenditure-switching external adjustment mechanism, highlighting the nexus from the viewpoint of emerging European vs. Latin American floaters, as well as from individual emerging European floaters (the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Romania) in the period 2000Q1-2017Q2 with standard and panel VAR analysis. FOF is identified as a stronger reaction of foreign exchange reserves and interest rate to nominal ER shocks, as well as higher variations of real ER explained with price shocks compared to nominal ER shocks. As a confirmation, in countries with expressed FOF current account shock is more transmitted to economic activities (expenditure-reducing external adjustment) rather than nominal ER changes (expenditure-switching mechanism). The results confirm the vulnerable position of European emerging floaters compared to Latin American floaters, bearing in mind the stronger FOF coinciding with the higher currency mismatch. Within the sample of European emerging floaters the most vulnerable position concerning the nexus was detected for Romania, while the most favorable position was found in the case of Poland. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Currency mismatch has drawn attention of the scholars in the recent 20 years. Scholars have proposed lots of empirical measures of currency mismatch of bank that only focus on stock currency mismatch, which leads to some limitations in the conclusion. Based on this fact, this paper comes up with a new indicator of flow currency mismatch, which can be used to analyzing the cause of currency mismatch of bank deeply and dynamically. Then this paper gives an empirical analysis of the relationship between the currency mismatch and some economic variables using ADL model. The study shows that the proper depreciation of domestic currencies, appropriately expanding imports to reduce the trade surplus can effectively reduce the currency mismatch in China from the perspective of stock and the promotion of RMB internationalization can effectively reduce the currency mismatch in China from the perspective of flow. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Highlights • The choice to remit enter agents' portfolio decision and responds to an insurance motive. • Remittance flows influence the decisions of households and firms with regard to the optimal share of deposits and loans. • Remittances raise the share of foreign currency loans. • Remittances reduce the share of foreign currency deposits. Abstract This paper investigates the effects of remittance receipts on the currency composition of deposits and loans in the home-country banking system. For this objective, we first develop a simple model that links remittance flows to the decisions of households and firms with regard to the optimal share of deposits and loans, respectively, held in the form of foreign currency. We, then, examine empirically the relevance of the theoretical predictions for fourteen Central and Eastern European countries over the last two decades. Both the theoretical and empirical findings underpin the importance of remittances for the currency composition of bank's balance sheets, pointing to a mismatch between deposits and loans: remittances raise the share of foreign currency loans whilst they reduce the share of foreign currency deposits. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

While South Korea has achieved remarkable economic and democratic transformation during the past decades, it has suffered from two major economic crises, both of which are essentially liquidity crises. In this regard, the purpose of this study is twofold: one is to review the debates on capital market liberalisation and highlight the dark sides of South Korea's experience. The other is to explain why South Korea has experienced another crisis in 2008 even though it already experienced the same liquidity crisis in 1997. We highlight the unintended consequences of policies with their own legitimate purposes and provide lessons on capital market liberalisation for emerging economies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper deals with the evolution of the currency mismatch in the Brazilian economy in the last two decades, with the aim of assessing the vulnerability of the economy to an exchange rate devaluation, through the balance sheet effect. We highlight the deep changes in the structure of the Brazilian external liabilities during that period. The main change was the radical fall in the net external debt, which turned from highly positive to negative. However, this reflects only the public sector position, since private external debt remained highly positive. To go further into our analysis, we subtracted the hedge operations through derivatives contracts from the primary currency mismatch. We then arrived at the conclusion that not only the effective private sector currency mismatch is quite lower than could be thought by looking only at the International Investment Position data, but also that it has diminished substantially in the last 5 years. Therefore, the risk of an important balance sheet effect as a consequence of a devaluation is lower than currently estimated. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, we show that the proportion of private debt denominated in foreign currency can be a determinant of the size of the domestic fiscal multiplier. The demonstration relies on a two-country New Keynesian DSGE model with nominal rigidities and financial frictions. In line with recent evidence, the model can reproduce the depreciation of the domestic currency following an increase in public spending. We show that, in this case, the increase in debt burden denominated in foreign currency deteriorates the domestic firms' balance sheets. This raises their external finance premium and crowds out private investment, ultimately offsetting the stimulative effect of the government spending shock. • The proportion of private debt in foreign currency influences the fiscal multiplier. • Demonstration based on a two-country New Keynesian model with financial frictions. • Domestic currency can depreciate following an increase in public spending. • Balance sheets deteriorate when private debt is denominated in foreign currency. • The increase in external finance premium offsets the effect of public spendings. • Empirical evidence based on a panel VAR confirms this mechanism. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

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The aim of this paper is the measurement of currency mismatch for a selected group of developing and frontier markets in the Central and Eastern Europe and Western Balkan regions and the analysis of the effects of aggregate currency misbalances on particular countries’ risk of default. The empirical tests provided confirm the positive effect of currency mismatch on default risk, which is reflected in the behaviour of yield spreads on the government bonds of the countries under consideration. The higher the negative currency misbalances are, the higher the EMBI spreads appear to be, and vice versa.

The article uses a post Kaleckian model to analyze how currency devaluations affect aggregate demand and capital accumulation in an economy with foreign currency liabilities in the short-run. In benchmark post Kaleckian open economy models, currency devaluations have two effects. First, they change international price competitiveness and thus affect net exports. Second, devaluations change income distribution and thereby affect consumption and investment demand. The overall effect on aggregate demand and investment is ambiguous and depends on parameter values. Existing models, however, disregard balance sheet effects that arise from foreign currency-denominated external debt. The article develops a novel post Kaleckian open economy model that introduces foreign currency-denominated external debt and balance sheet effects to examine the demand-effects of devaluations. Furthermore, the article models the dynamics of external and domestic corporate debt. It discusses how an economy may end up in a vicious cycle of foreign-currency indebtedness and derives the conditions under which indebtedness becomes stable or unstable. It shows that the existence of foreign currency-denominated debt means that contractionary devaluations are more likely, and that foreign interest rate hikes, and high illiquidity and risk premia compromise debt sustainability. Devaluations only stabilize debt ratios if they succeed in boosting domestic capital accumulation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

At the onset of the COVID-19 economic crisis, as in other crisis episodes, we observed a rapid appreciation of "safe haven" currencies. We quantify currency-induced balance sheet valuation effects for aggregate external positions as well as for broadly defined asset classes for the first quarter and the full year 2020. To do so, we use new data on the currency composition of cross-border assets and liabilities for 46 countries. In contrast with past financial crises, many emerging markets did not experience losses on their aggregate external balance sheets despite facing a domestic currency depreciation. This was partly due to currency-induced valuation gains on equity positions offsetting losses on debt positions, and partly due to reduced currency mismatch on their external debt positions. We conduct the stock-flow reconciliation of net international investment positions to measure overall valuation effects and compute the proportion that is due to changes in currency values. For about half of the countries in our sample, currency-induced valuation effects were substantial, representing over 50 percent of total valuation effects in 2020Q1 and the full year 2020., (© 2022 The Author(s).)

The paper investigates the impact of foreign currency lending on investment. Using Hungarian firm level data, we test whether foreign currency lending contributed to larger investment before the crisis and whether the depreciation during the Great Recession resulted in lower investment rate for firms with foreign currency loans. Results of OLS and matching estimations show that before the crisis FX lending increased investment rates and during the crisis the investment rate of firms with FX loans declined more because of the balance sheet effects triggered by the depreciation. These effects were found to be more pronounced for liquidity constrained firms. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We review some aspects of financial dollarization in Russia, applying the main relevant theories to analyse the dynamics of several dollarization indicators. An econometric model of the short-run dynamics of deposit and loan dollarization is estimated for the last decade. We find that ruble appreciation was the main driver of the de-dollarization that occurred then and of the later episode of renewed dollarization. We estimate the overall (and sectoral) currency mismatches of the Russian economy. Evidence is presented for the significant currency risk vulnerability of the non-banking private sector. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

Abstract: This paper examines the determinants of aggregate currency mismatch using the panel data set of Lane and Shambaugh, covering 97 countries over 1990–2004. The estimation results show that both domestic and international factors matter. Strengthening domestic policies and institutions is necessary but not sufficient for controlling currency mismatches in developing and emerging economies. A country should be financially liberalized and open, develop domestic securities markets, prudentially supervise financial intermediaries, upgrade institutional quality, and adopt credible monetary policies. However, a choice of exchange-rate regime does not impact currency mismatching. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Governments, corporations, and even small firms raise and denominate capital in different currencies. We examine the micro-level factors that should be considered by a borrower when structuring debt denominated in various currencies. This paper will show how the currency composition of debt affects the cost of debt through the interaction with the risk of company's assets. We look at the currency mismatch in the firm and analyze its credit spread within a Merton's type model with bankruptcy. We show that foreign currency borrowing is cheaper when the exchange rate is positively correlated with the return on the company's assets. The determining factor is not just whether a given company is an exporter or importer, but rather the statistical correlation between the rate of return on the firm's assets and changes in the exchange rate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

China's financial conundrum arises from two sources. First, its large saving (trade) surplus results in a currency mismatch because it is an immature creditor that cannot lend in its own currency. Instead, foreign currency claims (largely US dollars) build up within domestic financial institutions. Second, economists, both American and Chinese, mistakenly attribute the surpluses to an undervalued RMB. To placate the USA, the result was a gradual and predictable appreciation of the RMB against the dollar of 6 percent or more per year from July 2005 to July 2008. Together with the fall in US interest rates since mid-2007, this oneway bet in the foreign exchanges markets not only attracted hot money inflows but inhibited private capital outflows from financing China's huge trade surplus. Therefore, the People's Bank of China had to intervene heavily to prevent the RMB from ratcheting upwards, and so became the country's sole international financial intermediary as official exchange reserves exploded. Because of the currency mismatch, floating the RMB is neither feasible nor desirable, and a higher RMB would not reduce China's trade surplus. Instead, monetary control and normal private-sector finance for the trade surplus require a return to a credibly fixed nominal RMB/USD rate similar to that which existed between 1995 and 2004. However, for any newly reset RMB/USD rate to be credible as a monetary anchor, foreign “China bashing” to get the RMB up must end. Then the stage would be set for fiscal expansion to both stimulate the economy and reduce its trade surplus. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper analyzes the impact of the exchange rate volatility on the performance of the Peruvian economy using financial information from 163 non-financial listed firms. We find evidence that, for firms holding dollar-denominated debt, investment decisions are negatively affected by real exchange rate depreciation. The reasons behind this result are: (i) the high degree of liability dollarization and currency mismatch that create the conditions for a balance sheet effect and a financial stress in the aftermath of a currency depreciation; (ii) the strong bank-lending channel that follows and reinforces the balance sheet effect; (iii) the domestic demand shrinkage that affects severely firms’ sales; and (iv) the relatively small and poorly diversified export sector. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

I analyze the balance sheet channels of depreciation of the Turkish non-financial corporations for 2003–2015. Having constructed a novel, hand-collected firm-level dataset on the composition and term structure of foreign currency assets and liabilities, I show that foreign currency debt and mismatch has a significant negative balance sheet effect on capital investment following a depreciation. The results remain same even after controlling for foreign currency assets and exports. This implies that the contractionary net worth effect of depreciation dominates its expansionary competitiveness effect. The result is more pronounced for the firms with short-term foreign currency exposures. • Foreign currency debt and foreign currency mismatch has negative balance sheet effect on investment. • Negative balance sheet effect is more severe for short term measures of foreign currency exposure. • Negative balance sheet effect of depreciation dominates its expected expansionary competitiveness effect. • Foreign currency assets help firms to hedge their foreign currency exposure. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]