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1) Ecological niche modelling (ENM), species distribution modelling and related spatial analytical methods were first developed in two-dimensional (2-D) terrestrial systems; many common ENM workflows organize and analyse geographically structured occurrence and environmental data based on 2-D latitude and longitude coordinates. This may be suitable for most terrestrial organisms, but pelagic marine species are distributed not only horizontally but also vertically. Extracting environmental data for marine species based only on latitude and longitude coordinates may result in poorly trained ENMs and inaccurate prediction of species' geographical distributions, as water conditions may vary strikingly with depth.2) We developed the voluModel R package to efficiently extract three-dimensional (3-D) environmental data for training ENMs (i.e. presences and absences/pseudoabsences/background). voluModel also provides tools for 3-D ENM projection visualization and estimation of model extrapolation risk.3) We present the main features of the voluModel R package and provide a simple modelling workflow for Luminous Hake, Steindachneria argentea, as an example. We also compare results from 2-D and 3-D spatial models to demonstrate differences in how the modelling methods perform.4) The use of 3-D environmental data generates more precise estimates of environmental conditions for training ENMs. This method also improves inference of species' suitable abiotic ecological niches and potential geographic ranges. 3-D niche modelling is important step forward for marine macroecology and biogeography, as it will yield more accurate estimates of ocean species richness and potential past and future changes in the horizontal and vertical dimensions of species' geographic ranges. The latter is particularly relevant considering ongoing climate change that may cause redistribution of species in environmental space (both in latitude and depth) over time. Ecological niche modelling (ENM), species distribution modelling and related spatial analytical methods were first developed in two-dimensional (2-D) terrestrial systems; many common ENM workflows organize and analyse geographically structured occurrence and environmental data based on 2-D latitude and longitude coordinates. This may be suitable for most terrestrial organisms, but pelagic marine species are distributed not only horizontally but also vertically. Extracting environmental data for marine species based only on latitude and longitude coordinates may result in poorly trained ENMs and inaccurate prediction of species' geographical distributions, as water conditions may vary strikingly with depth. We developed the voluModel R package to efficiently extract three-dimensional (3-D) environmental data for training ENMs (i.e. presences and absences/pseudoabsences/background). voluModel also provides tools for 3-D ENM projection visualization and estimation of model extrapolation risk. We present the main features of the voluModel R package and provide a simple modelling workflow for Luminous Hake, Steindachneria argentea, as an example. We also compare results from 2-D and 3-D spatial models to demonstrate differences in how the modelling methods perform. The use of 3-D environmental data generates more precise estimates of environmental conditions for training ENMs. This method also improves inference of species' suitable abiotic ecological niches and potential geographic ranges. 3-D niche modelling is important step forward for marine macroecology and biogeography, as it will yield more accurate estimates of ocean species richness and potential past and future changes in the horizontal and vertical dimensions of species' geographic ranges. The latter is particularly relevant considering ongoing climate change that may cause redistribution of species in environmental space (both in latitude and depth) over time.

Anticipating species’ responses to environmental change is a pressing mission in biodiversity conservation. Despite decades of research investigating how climate change may affect population sizes, historical context is lacking and the traits which mediate demographic sensitivity to changing climate remain elusive. We use whole-genome sequence data to reconstruct the demographic histories of 263 bird species over the past million years and identify networks of interacting morphological and life-history traits associated with changes in effective population size (Ne) in response to climate warming and cooling. Our results identify direct and indirect effects of key traits representing dispersal, reproduction, and survival on long-term demographic responses to climate change, thereby highlighting traits most likely to influence population responses to on-going climate warming.One-Sentence SummaryInteracting traits influence sensitivity of bird population sizes to climate warming and cooling over the past million years.

Understanding how temperature determines the distribution of life is necessary to assess species’ sensitivities to contemporary climate change. Here we test the importance of temperature in limiting geographic ranges of ectotherms by comparing temperatures across occupied ranges to those species could potentially occupy based on their physiological thermal tolerances. Whereas marine and tropical terrestrial species occupy temperatures that closely match their thermal tolerances, high-latitude terrestrial species under-occupy warm temperatures and are absent from thermally tolerable areas towards the equator. This suggests that on land, temperature less often limits the equatorward range edge of temperate species, supporting the hypothesis that their historic expansion ‘out of the tropics’ was associated with tropical biotic exclusion. Our findings predict more direct responses to climate warming of marine ranges and cool range edges of terrestrial species.

Many wild bee species are threatened across Europe, and with them the pollination function they provide. While numerous studies have assessed the value of bees as pollinators of crops, little is known about the non-marked value of bees. Using a choice modelling experiment, we examine these non-market values in Germany by identifying citizens’ willingness to pay (WTP) for wild bee conservation initiatives in four states. Effects of distance, state and regional affiliation are scrutinised, as previous research found these to affect respondents’ choices. Random parameter logit and latent class models are used to capture preference heterogeneity. Overall, we find strong support of wild bee conservation and a clear preference for improvement relative to the status quo, particularly in natural areas and for rare or endangered species. The yearly WTP for conservation initiatives ranges from 227 to 447€ per household. Our results show distance and regional effects on WTP. Initiatives in respondents’ home states are preferred, and increasing distance to initiatives in other states result in a slightly reduced WTP. Additionally, we observe regional preferences within an eastern and a western home region. These preferences are not explainable by socio-demographic characteristics, home state or distance and probably linked to social and cultural affiliations. We conclude that for widespread support in society and effective conservation initiatives, policy proposals must address this spatial heterogeneity from distance and regional effects. © 2022, The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature B.V. The authors thank the anonymous reviewers for their extensive and valuable comments on this manuscript. The authors would further like to thank Julian Sagebiel from the Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences for his support in the analysis of the survey data. They thank Alice Rogowski, Bennet Bergmann, Helena Leinweber, Jan Peters, Jean Paul Moreaux, Thomas Prossliner, as well as the focus groups participants for their valuable comments on the early version of the questionnaire. This research did not receive any specific grant from funding agencies in the public, commercial, or not-for-profit sectors. C.M., B.D. and C.R. thank the Danish National Research Foundation for its support of the Center for Macroecology, Evolution and Climate (Grant No. DNRF96).

Despite evidence of declining biosphere integrity, we currently lack understanding of how the functional diversity associated with changes in abundance among ecological communities has varied over time and before widespread human disturbances. We combine morphological, ecological, and life-history trait data for >260 extant bird species with genomic-based estimates of changing effective population size (Ne) to quantify demographic-based shifts in avian functional diversity over the past million years and under pre-anthropogenic climate warming. We show that functional diversity was relatively stable over this period, but underwent significant changes in some key areas of trait space due to changing species abundances. Our results suggest that patterns of population decline over the Pleistocene have been concentrated in particular regions of trait space associated with extreme reproductive strategies and low dispersal ability, consistent with an overall erosion of functional diversity. Further, species most sensitive to climate warming occupied a relatively narrow region of functional space, indicating that the largest potential population increases and decreases under climate change will occur among species with relatively similar trait sets. Overall, our results identify fluctuations in functional space of extant species over evolutionary timescales and represent the demographic-based vulnerability of different regions of functional space among these taxa. The integration of paleodemographic dynamics with functional trait data enhances our ability to quantify losses of biosphere integrity before anthropogenic disturbances and attribute contemporary biodiversity loss to different drivers over time. Despite evidence of declining biosphere integrity, we currently lack understanding of how the functional diversity associated with changes in abundance among ecological communities has varied over time and before widespread human disturbances. We combine morphological, ecological, and life-history trait data for >260 extant bird species with genomic-based estimates of changing effective population size (Ne) to quantify demographic-based shifts in avian functional diversity over the past million years and under pre-anthropogenic climate warming. We show that functional diversity was relatively stable over this period, but underwent significant changes in some key areas of trait space due to changing species abundances. Our results suggest that patterns of population decline over the Pleistocene have been concentrated in particular regions of trait space associated with extreme reproductive strategies and low dispersal ability, consistent with an overall erosion of functional diversity. Further, species most sensitive to climate warming occupied a relatively narrow region of functional space, indicating that the largest potential population increases and decreases under climate change will occur among species with relatively similar trait sets. Overall, our results identify fluctuations in functional space of extant species over evolutionary timescales and represent the demographic-based vulnerability of different regions of functional space among these taxa. The integration of paleodemographic dynamics with functional trait data enhances our ability to quantify losses of biosphere integrity before anthropogenic disturbances and attribute contemporary biodiversity loss to different drivers over time.

The immense concentrations of vertebrate species in tropical mountains remain a prominent but unexplained pattern in biogeography. A long-standing hypothesis suggests that montane biodiversity hotspots result from endemic species aggregating within ecologically stable localities. Here, the persistence of ancient lineages coincides with frequent speciation events, making such areas both ‘cradles’ (where new species arise) and ‘museums’ (where old species survive). Although this hypothesis refers to processes operating at the scale of valleys, it remains supported primarily by patterns generated from coarse-scale distribution data. Using high-resolution occurrence and phylogenetic data on Andean hummingbirds, we find that old and young endemic species are not spatially aggregated. The young endemic species tend to have non-overlapping distributions scattered along the Andean treeline, a long and narrow habitat where populations easily become fragmented. By contrast, the old endemic species have more aggregated distributions, but mainly within pockets of cloud forests at lower elevations than the young endemic species. These findings contradict the premise that biogeographical cradles and museums should overlap in valley systems where pockets of stable climate persist through periods of climate change. Instead, Andean biodiversity hotspots may derive from large-scale fluctuating climate complexity in conjunction with local-scale variability in available area and habitat connectivity.

The tea family (Theaceae) has a highly unusual amphi-Pacific disjunct distribution: most extant species in the family are restricted to subtropical evergreen broadleaf forests in East Asia, while a handful of species occur exclusively in the subtropical and tropical Americas. Here, we used an approach that integrates the rich fossil evidence of this group with phylogenies in biogeographic analysis to study the processes behind this distribution pattern. We first combined genome-skimming sequencing with existing molecular data to build a robust species-level phylogeny for c.130 Theaceae species, resolving most important unclarified relationships. We then developed an empirical Bayesian method to incorporate distribution evidence from fossil specimens into historical biogeographic analyses and used this method to account for the spatiotemporal history of Theaceae fossils. We compared our method with an alternative Bayesian approach and show that it provides consistent results while significantly reduces computational demands which allows analyses of much larger data sets. Our analyses revealed a circumboreal distribution of the family from the early Cenozoic to the Miocene and inferred repeated expansions and retractions of the modeled distribution in the Northern Hemisphere, suggesting that the current Theaceae distribution could be the remnant of a larger continuous distribution associated with the boreotropical forest that has been hypothesized to occupy most of the northern latitudes in the early Cenozoic. These results contradict with studies that only considered current species distributions and showcase the necessity of integrating fossil and molecular data in phylogeny-based parametric biogeographic models to improve the reliability of inferred biogeographical events. [Biogeography; genome skimming; phylogenomics; plastid genome; Theaceae.]

Functional traits can determine pairwise species interactions, such as those between plants and pollinators. However, the effects of biogeography and evolutionary history on trait-matching and trait-mediated resource specialization remain poorly understood.We compiled a database of 93 mutualistic hummingbird-plant networks (including 181 hummingbird and 1,256 plant species), complemented by morphological measures of hummingbird bill and floral corolla length. We divided the hummingbirds into their principal clades and used knowledge on hummingbird biogeography to divide the networks into four biogeographical regions: Lowland South America, Andes, North & Central America, and the Caribbean islands. We then tested: (a) whether hummingbird clades and biogeographical regions differ in hummingbird bill length, corolla length of visited flowers and resource specialization, and (b) whether hummingbirds' bill length correlates with the corolla length of their food plants and with their level of resource specialization.Hummingbird clades dominated by long-billed species generally visited longer flowers and were the most exclusive in their resource use. Bill and corolla length and the degree of resource specialization were similar across mainland regions, but the Caribbean islands had shorter flowers and hummingbirds with more generalized interaction niches. Bill and corolla length correlated in all regions and most clades, that is, trait-matching was a recurrent phenomenon in hummingbird-plant associations. In contrast, bill length did not generally mediate resource specialization, as bill length was only weakly correlated with resource specialization within one hummingbird clade (Brilliants) and in the regions of Lowland South America and the Andes in which plants and hummingbirds have a long co-evolutionary history. Supplementary analyses including bill curvature confirmed that bill morphology (length and curvature) does not in general predict resource specialization.These results demonstrate how biogeographical and evolutionary histories can modulate the effects of functional traits on species interactions, and that traits better predict functional groups of interaction partners (i.e. trait-matching) than resource specialization. These findings reveal that functional traits have great potential, but also key limitations, as a tool for developing more mechanistic approaches in community ecology.A free Plain Language Summary can be found within the Supporting Information of this article.

The question of whether migratory birds track a specific climatic niche by seasonal movements has important implications for understanding the evolution of migration, the factors affecting species' distributions, and the responses of migrants to climate change. Despite much research, previous studies of bird migration have produced mixed results. However, whether migrants track climate is only one half of the question, the other being why residents remain in the same geographic range year‐round. We provide a literature overview and test the hypothesis of seasonal niche tracking by evaluating seasonal climatic niche overlap across 437 migratory and resident species from eight clades of passerine birds. Seasonal climatic niches were based on a new global dataset of breeding and nonbreeding ranges. Overlap between climatic niches was quantified using ordination methods. We compared niche overlap of migratory species to two null expectations, (a) a scenario in which they do not migrate and (b) in comparison with the overlap experienced by closely related resident species, while controlling for breeding location and range size. Partly in accordance with the hypothesis of niche tracking, we found that the overlap of breeding versus nonbreeding climatic conditions in migratory species was greater than the overlap they would experience if they did not migrate. However, this was only true for migrants breeding outside the tropics and only relative to the overlap species would experience if they stayed in the breeding range year‐round. In contrast to the hypothesis of niche tracking, migratory species experienced lower seasonal climatic niche overlap than resident species, with significant differences between tropical and nontropical species. Our study suggests that in seasonal nontropical environments migration away from the breeding range may serve to avoid seasonally harsh climate; however, different factors may drive seasonal movements in the climatically more stable tropical regions., By examining seasonal niche overlap in migratory and resident bird species, we show that niche tracking varies depending on (a) the perspective in which the question was examined (i.e., from the perspective of the individual migrant or in comparison with resident species, (b) the direction of migration (i.e., whether the species is moving from the breeding or non‐breeding range), and (c) geographic location. Altogether, these results suggest that the drivers of migration vary depending on direction of migration as well as geographically, offering explanations for the mixed results from previous studies.

Tobias, Joseph A., Sheard, Catherine, Pigot, Alex L., Devenish, Adam J. M., Yang, Jingyi, Sayol, Ferran, Neate‐Clegg, Montague H. C., Alioravainen, Nico, Weeks, Thomas L., Barber, Robert A., Walkden, Patrick A., MacGregor, Hannah E. A., Jones, Samuel E. I., Vincent, Claire, Phillips, Anna G., Marples, Nicola M., Montaño‐Centellas, Flavia A., Leandro‐Silva, Victor, Claramunt, Santiago, Darski, Bianca, Freeman, Benjamin G., Bregman, Tom P., Cooney, Christopher R., Hughes, Emma C., Capp, Elliot J. R., Varley, Zoë K., Friedman, Nicholas R., Korntheuer, Heiko, Corrales‐Vargas, Andrea, Trisos, Christopher H., Weeks, Brian C., Hanz, Dagmar M., Töpfer, Till, Bravo, Gustavo A., Remeš, Vladimír, Nowak, Larissa, Carneiro, Lincoln S., Moncada R., Amilkar J., Matysioková, Beata, Baldassarre, Daniel T., Martínez‐Salinas, Alejandra, Wolfe, Jared D., Chapman, Philip M., Daly, Benjamin G., Sorensen, Marjorie C., Neu, Alexander, Ford, Michael A., Mayhew, Rebekah J., Fabio Silveira, Luis, Kelly, David J., Annorbah, Nathaniel N. D., Pollock, Henry S., Grabowska‐Zhang, Ada M., McEntee, Jay P., Carlos T. Gonzalez, Juan, Meneses, Camila G., Muñoz, Marcia C., Powell, Luke L., Jamie, Gabriel A., Matthews, Thomas J., Johnson, Oscar, Brito, Guilherme R. R., Zyskowski, Kristof, Crates, Ross, Harvey, Michael G., Jurado Zevallos, Maura, Hosner, Peter A., Bradfer‐Lawrence, Tom, Maley, James M., Stiles, F. Gary, Lima, Hevana S., Provost, Kaiya L., Chibesa, Moses, Mashao, Mmatjie, Howard, Jeffrey T., Mlamba, Edson, Chua, Marcus A. H., Li, Bicheng, Gómez, M. Isabel, García, Natalia C., Päckert, Martin, Fuchs, Jérôme, Ali, Jarome R., Derryberry, Elizabeth P., Carlson, Monica L., Urriza, Rolly C., Brzeski, Kristin E., Prawiradilaga, Dewi M., Rayner, Matt J., Miller, Eliot T., Bowie, Rauri C. K., Lafontaine, René‐Marie, Scofield, R. Paul, Lou, Yingqiang, Somarathna, Lankani, Lepage, Denis, Illif, Marshall, Neuschulz, Eike Lena, Templin, Mathias, Dehling, D. Matthias, Cooper, Jacob C., Pauwels, Olivier S. G., Analuddin, Kangkuso, Fjeldså, Jon, Seddon, Nathalie, Sweet, Paul R., DeClerck, Fabrice A. J., Naka, Luciano N., Brawn, Jeffrey D., Aleixo, Alexandre, Böhning‐Gaese, Katrin, Rahbek, Carsten, Fritz, Susanne A., Thomas, Gavin H., Schleuning, Matthias (2022): AVONET: morphological, ecological and geographical data for all birds. Ecology Letters 25 (3): 581-597, DOI: 10.1111/ele.13898, URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/ele.13898

Migration allows animals to exploit spatially separated and seasonally available resources at a continental to global scale. However, responding to global climatic changes might prove challenging, especially for long-distance intercontinental migrants. During glacial periods, when conditions became too harsh for breeding in the north, avian migrants have been hypothesized to retract their distribution to reside within small refugial areas. Here, we present data showing that an Afro-Palearctic migrant continued seasonal migration, largely within Africa, during previous glacial–interglacial cycles with no obvious impact on population size. Using individual migratory track data to hindcast monthly bioclimatic habitat availability maps through the last 120,000 y, we show altered seasonal use of suitable areas through time. Independently derived effective population sizes indicate a growing population through the last 40,000 y. We conclude that the migratory lifestyle enabled adaptation to shifting climate conditions. This indicates that populations of resource-tracking, long-distance migratory species could expand successfully during warming periods in the past, which could also be the case under future climate scenarios.

Aim To determine the ecological processes and drivers of range collapse, population decline and eventual extinction of the steppe bison in Eurasia. Location Siberia. Time period Pleistocene and Holocene. Major taxa studied Steppe bison (Bison priscus). Methods We configured 110,000 spatially explicit population models (SEPMs) of climate-human-steppe bison interactions in Siberia, which we ran at generational time steps from 50,000 years before present. We used pattern-oriented modelling (POM) and fossil-based inferences of distribution and demographic change of steppe bison to identify which SEPMs adequately simulated important interactions between ecological processes and biological threats. These "best models" were then used to disentangle the mechanisms that were integral in the population decline and later extinction of the steppe bison in its last stronghold in Eurasia. Results Our continuous reconstructions of the range and extinction dynamics of steppe bison were able to reconcile inferences of spatio-temporal occurrence and the timing and location of extinction in Siberia based on hundreds of radiocarbon-dated steppe bison fossils. We showed that simulating the ecological pathway to extinction for steppe bison in Siberia in the early Holocene required very specific ecological niche constraints, demographic processes and a constrained synergy of climate and human hunting dynamics during the Pleistocene-Holocene transition. Main conclusions Ecological processes and drivers that caused ancient population declines of species can be reconstructed at high spatio-temporal resolutions using SEPMs and POM. Using this approach, we found that climatic change and hunting by humans are likely to have interacted with key ecological processes to cause the extinction of the steppe bison in its last refuge in Eurasia.

Animal pollinators are globally threatened by anthropogenic land use change and agricultural intensification. The yield of many food crops is therefore negatively impacted because they benefit from biotic pollination. This is especially the case in the tropics. For instance, fruit set of Coffea arabica has been shown to increase by 10–30% in plantations with a high richness of bee species, possibly influenced by the availability of surrounding forest habitat. Here, we performed a global literature review to (1) assess how much animal pollination enhances coffee fruit set, and to (2) examine the importance of the amount of forest cover, distance to nearby forest and forest canopy density for bee species richness and coffee fruit set. Using a systematic literature review, we identified eleven case studies with a total of 182 samples where fruit set of C. arabica was assessed. We subsequently gathered forest data for all study sites from satellite imagery. We modelled the effects of open (all forest with a canopy density of ≥25%), closed (≥50%) and dense (≥75%) forests on pollinator richness and fruit set of coffee. Overall, we found that animal pollination increases coffee fruit set by ~18% on average. In only one of the case studies, regression results indicate a positive effect of dense forest on coffee fruit set, which increased with higher forest cover and shorter distance to the forest. Against expectations, forest cover and distance to open forest were not related to bee species richness and fruit set. In summary, we provide strong empirical support for the notion that animal pollinators increase coffee fruit set. Forest proximity had little overall influence on bee richness and coffee fruit set, except when farms were surrounded by dense tropical forests, potentially because these may provide high-quality habitats for bees pollinating coffee. We, therefore, advocate that more research is done to understand the biodiversity value of dense forest for pollinators, notably assessing the mechanisms underlying the importance of forest for pollinators and their pollination services.

Humans have moved species away from their native ranges since the Neolithic, but globalization accelerated the rate at which species are being moved. We fitted more than half million distribution models for 610 traded bird species on the CITES list to examine the separate and joint effects of global climate and land-cover change on their potential end-of-century distributions. We found that climate-induced suitability for modelled invasive species increases with latitude, because traded birds are mainly of tropical origin and much of the temperate region is ‘tropicalizing.’ Conversely, the tropics are becoming more arid, thus limiting the potential from cross-continental in vasion by tropical species. This trend is compounded by forest loss around the tropics since most traded birds are forest dwellers. In contrast, net gains in forest area across the temperate region could compound climate change effects and increase the potential for colonization of low-latitude birds. Climate change has always led to regional redistributions of species, but the combination of human transportation, climate, and land-cover changes will likely accelerate the redistribution of species globally, increas ing chances of alien species successfully invading non-native lands. Such process of biodiversity homogenization can lead to emergence of non-analogue communities with unknown environmental and socioeconomic consequences., This research was funded by FEDER through the Operational Competitiveness Program COMPETE, and by the Portuguese Foundation for Science and Technology (FCT) ALIENTRADE project (PTDC/BIA-ECO/30931/2017-POCI-01-0145-FEDER-030931). CC was supported by FCT (CEECIND/02037/2017; UIDB/00295/2020 and UIDP/00295/2020). JR acknowledges support from FCT through a postdoc grant INTERREG Europe INVALIS—Protecting.

With ever-growing data availability and computational power at our disposal, we now have the capacity to use process-explicit models more widely to reveal the ecological and evolutionary mechanisms responsible for spatiotemporal patterns of biodiversity. Most research questions focused on the distribution of diversity cannot be answered experimentally, because many important environmental drivers and biological constraints operate at large spatiotemporal scales. However, we can encode proposed mechanisms into models, observe the patterns they produce in virtual environments, and validate these patterns against real-world data or theoretical expectations. This approach can advance understanding of generalizable mechanisms responsible for the distributions of organisms, communities, and ecosystems in space and time, advancing basic and applied science. We review recent developments in process-explicit models and how they have improved knowledge of the distribution and dynamics of life on Earth, enabling biodiversity to be better understood and managed through a deeper recognition of the processes that shape genetic, species, and ecosystem diversity.

Knowledge of global patterns of biodiversity, ranging from intraspecific genetic diversity (GD) to taxonomic and phylogenetic diversity, is essential for identifying and conserving the processes that shape the distribution of life. Yet, global patterns of GD and its drivers remain elusive. Here we assess existing biodiversity theories to explain and predict the global distribution of GD in terrestrial mammal assemblages. We find a strong positive covariation between GD and interspecific diversity, with evolutionary time, reflected in phylogenetic diversity, being the best predictor of GD. Moreover, we reveal the negative effect of past rapid climate change and the positive effect of inter-annual precipitation variability in shaping GD. Our models, explaining almost half of the variation in GD globally, uncover the importance of deep evolutionary history and past climate stability in accumulating and maintaining intraspecific diversity, and constitute a crucial step towards reducing the Wallacean shortfall for an important dimension of biodiversity., The drivers of genetic diversity (GD) are poorly understood at the global scale. Here the authors show, for terrestrial mammals, that within-species GD covaries with phylogenetic diversity and is higher in locations with more stable past climates. They also interpolate GD for data-poor locations such as the tropics.

Climate stability leads to high levels of speciation and reduced extinction rates, shaping species richness patterns1–3. Hotspots of species diversity often overlap with regions that experienced stable temperatures and, perhaps, variable rates of precipitation during the late Quaternary4,5. These hotspots potentially harbour many species with low vagility and small geographical ranges6, making them more vulnerable to future ecoclimatic change4,7,8. By comparing global and regional patterns of climate stability during short periods of unusually large and widespread climate changes since the Last Glacial Maximum with twenty-first-century patterns, we show that human-driven climate change will disproportionally affect biodiversity in late Quaternary climate refugia, ultimately affecting the species, communities and ecosystems that are most vulnerable to climate change. Moreover, future changes in absolute temperature will probably erode the mechanisms that are theorized to sustain biodiversity hotspots across time. These impending shifts from stable to unstable temperatures—projected for the majority of the world’s biodiversity regions—threaten to reduce the size and extent of important climatic safe havens for diversity. Where climate refugia are forecast to persist until the end of this century, temperatures in these refuges are likely to exceed the acclimation capacity of many species, making them short-term hospices for biodiversity at best7–9. The stability of climatic conditions since the Last Glacial Maximum has contributed to current global patterns of species richness. Changes in patterns of climate stability this century reveal areas where climate change could reduce biodiversity, with largest losses in past climatic safe havens.

The causes of continental patterns in species richness continue to spur heated discussion. Hypotheses based on ambient energy have dominated the debate, but are increasingly being challenged by hypotheses that model richness as the overlap of species ranges, ultimately controlled by continental range dynamics of individual species. At the heart of this controversy lies the question of whether species richness of individual grid cells is controlled by local factors, or reflects larger-scale spatial patterns in the turnover of species’ ranges. Here, we develop a new approach based on assemblage dispersion fields, formed by overlaying the geographic ranges of all species co-occurring in a grid cell. We created dispersion fields for all tetrapods of South America, and characterized the orientation and shape of dispersion fields as a vector field. The resulting maps demonstrate the existence of macro-structures in the turnover of biotic similarity at continental scale that are congruent among vertebrate classes. These structures underline the importance of continental-scale processes for species richness in individual assemblages., Ecologists continue to debate whether local species assemblages result from habitat filtering or from turnover among the regional species pool. Here the authors develop a “dispersion field” method to mapping species range overlaps, showing that regional turnover processes are key to local assembly.

The numbers and impacts of non-native species (NNS) continue to grow. Multiple ranking protocols have been developed to identify and manage the most damaging species. However, existing protocols differ considerably in the type of impact they consider, the way evidence of impacts is included and scored, and in the way the precautionary principle is applied. These differences may lead to inconsistent impact assessments. Since these protocols are considered a main policy tool to promote mitigation efforts, such inconsistencies are undesirable, as they can affect our ability to reliably identify the most damaging NNS, and can erode public support for NNS management. Here we propose a broadly applicable framework for building a transparent NNS impact evidence base. First, we advise to separate the collection of evidence of impacts from the act of scoring the severity of these impacts. Second, we propose to map the collected evidence along a set of distinguishing criteria: where it is published, which methodological approach was used to obtain it, the relevance of the geographical area from which it originates, and the direction of the impact. This procedure produces a transparent and reproducible evidence base which can subsequently be used for different scoring protocols, and which should be made public. Finally, we argue that the precautionary principle should only be used at the risk management stage. Conditional upon the evidence presented in an impact assessment, decision-makers may use the precautionary principle for NNS management under scientific uncertainty regarding the likelihood and magnitude of NNS impacts. Our framework paves the way for an improved application of impact assessments protocols, reducing inconsistencies and ultimately enabling more effective NNS management.

Research on resource partitioning in plant-pollinator mutualistic systems is mainly concentrated at the levels of species and communities, whereas differences between males and females are typically ignored. Nevertheless, pollinators often show large sexual differences in behaviour and morphology, which may lead to sex-specific patterns of resource use with the potential to differentially affect plant reproduction and diversification. We investigated variation in behavioural and morphological traits between sexes of hummingbird species as potential mechanisms underlying sex-specific flower resource use in ecological communities. To do so, we compiled a dataset of plant-hummingbird interactions based on pollen loads for 31 hummingbird species from 13 localities across the Americas, complemented by data on territorial behaviour (territorial or non-territorial) and morphological traits (bill length, bill curvature, wing length and body mass). We assessed the extent of intersexual differences in niche breadth and niche overlap in floral resource use across hummingbird species. Then, we tested whether floral niche breadth and overlap between sexes are associated with sexual dimorphism in behavioural or morphological traits of hummingbird species while accounting for evolutionary relatedness among the species. We found striking differences in patterns of floral resource use between sex. Females had a broader floral niche breadth and were more dissimilar in the plant species visited with respect to males of the same species, resulting in a high level of resource partitioning between sexes. We found that both territoriality and morphological traits were related to sex-specific resource use by hummingbird species. Notably, niche overlap between sexes was greater for territorial than non-territorial species, and moreover, niche overlap was negatively associated with sexual dimorphism in bill curvature across hummingbird species. These results reveal the importance of behavioural and morphological traits of hummingbird species in sex-specific resource use and that resource partitioning by sex is likely to be an important mechanism to reduce intersexual competition in hummingbirds. These findings highlight the need for better understanding the putative role of intersexual variation in shaping patterns of interactions and plant reproduction in ecological communities.La investigación sobre la partición de recursos en los sistemas mutualistas planta-polinizador se concentra principalmente en los niveles de especies y comunidades, mientras que las diferencias entre machos y hembras suelen ser ignoradas. Sin embargo, los polinizadores suelen mostrar grandes diferencias sexuales en su comportamiento y morfología, lo que puede dar lugar a patrones específicos de uso de recursos para cada sexo con el potencial de afectar de forma diferencial la reproducción y la diversificación de las plantas. Se estudió la variación en los rasgos de comportamiento y morfológicos entre sexos de las especies de colibríes como posibles mecanismos que explican el uso de recursos florales específicos para cada sexo en las comunidades ecológicas. Para ello, se recopiló un conjunto de datos de interacciones planta-colibrí con base en las cargas de polen de 31 especies de colibríes de 13 localidades en las Américas, además de datos sobre su comportamiento territorial (territorial o no territorial) y rasgos morfológicos (longitud y curvatura del pico, longitud del ala y masa corporal). Se evaluaron las diferencias intersexuales en la amplitud y el solapamiento del nicho en el uso de los recursos florales para las distintas especies de colibríes. Posteriormente, se comprobó si la amplitud del nicho floral y el solapamiento entre sexos están asociados con el dimorfismo sexual en los rasgos de comportamiento o morfológicos de las especies de colibríes, teniendo en cuenta el parentesco evolutivo entre las especies. Se encontraron diferencias notables en los patrones de uso de los recursos florales entre sexos. Las hembras presentaron una mayor amplitud de nicho floral y fueron más disímiles en las especies de plantas visitadas con respecto a los machos de la misma especie, lo que resultó en un alto nivel de partición de recursos entre los sexos. Se encontró que tanto la territorialidad como los rasgos morfológicos están relacionados con el uso de recursos específicos por sexo en las especies de colibríes. En particular, el solapamiento de nicho entre sexos fue mayor para las especies territoriales que para las no territoriales y, además, el solapamiento de nicho se asoció negativamente con el dimorfismo sexual en la curvatura del pico en las especies de colibríes. Estos resultados revelan la importancia de los rasgos conductuales y morfológicos de las especies de colibríes en el uso de recursos según el sexo y que la partición de recursos entre sexos es probablemente un mecanismo importante para reducir la competencia intersexual en los colibríes. Estos resultados ponen de manifiesto la necesidad de comprender mejor el rol que tiene la variación intersexual en los patrones de interacción y en la reproducción de las plantas en las comunidades ecológicas.