325 results on '"Carsten Rahbek"'
Search Results
2. Diversification of flowering plants in space and time
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Dimitar Dimitrov, Xiaoting Xu, Xiangyan Su, Nawal Shrestha, Yunpeng Liu, Jonathan D. Kennedy, Lisha Lyu, David Nogués-Bravo, James Rosindell, Yong Yang, Jon Fjeldså, Jianquan Liu, Bernhard Schmid, Jingyun Fang, Carsten Rahbek, and Zhiheng Wang
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Science - Abstract
Abstract The rapid diversification and high species richness of flowering plants is regarded as ‘Darwin’s second abominable mystery’. Today the global spatiotemporal pattern of plant diversification remains elusive. Using a newly generated genus-level phylogeny and global distribution data for 14,244 flowering plant genera, we describe the diversification dynamics of angiosperms through space and time. Our analyses show that diversification rates increased throughout the early Cretaceous and then slightly decreased or remained mostly stable until the end of the Cretaceous–Paleogene mass extinction event 66 million years ago. After that, diversification rates increased again towards the present. Younger genera with high diversification rates dominate temperate and dryland regions, whereas old genera with low diversification dominate the tropics. This leads to a negative correlation between spatial patterns of diversification and genus diversity. Our findings suggest that global changes since the Cenozoic shaped the patterns of flowering plant diversity and support an emerging consensus that diversification rates are higher outside the tropics.
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- 2023
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3. Mechanistic models project bird invasions with accuracy
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Diederik Strubbe, Laura Jiménez, A. Márcia Barbosa, Amy J. S. Davis, Luc Lens, and Carsten Rahbek
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Science - Abstract
Abstract Invasive species pose a major threat to biodiversity and inflict massive economic costs. Effective management of bio-invasions depends on reliable predictions of areas at risk of invasion, as they allow early invader detection and rapid responses. Yet, considerable uncertainty remains as to how to predict best potential invasive distribution ranges. Using a set of mainly (sub)tropical birds introduced to Europe, we show that the true extent of the geographical area at risk of invasion can accurately be determined by using ecophysiological mechanistic models that quantify species’ fundamental thermal niches. Potential invasive ranges are primarily constrained by functional traits related to body allometry and body temperature, metabolic rates, and feather insulation. Given their capacity to identify tolerable climates outside of contemporary realized species niches, mechanistic predictions are well suited for informing effective policy and management aimed at preventing the escalating impacts of invasive species.
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- 2023
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4. An updated floristic map of the world
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Yunpeng Liu, Xiaoting Xu, Dimitar Dimitrov, Loic Pellissier, Michael K. Borregaard, Nawal Shrestha, Xiangyan Su, Ao Luo, Niklaus E. Zimmermann, Carsten Rahbek, and Zhiheng Wang
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Science - Abstract
Abstract Floristic regions reflect the geographic organization of floras and provide essential tools for biological studies. Previous global floristic regions are generally based on floristic endemism, lacking a phylogenetic consideration that captures floristic evolution. Moreover, the contribution of tectonic dynamics and historical and current climate to the division of floristic regions remains unknown. Here, by integrating global distributions and a phylogeny of 12,664 angiosperm genera, we update global floristic regions and explore their temporal changes. Eight floristic realms and 16 nested sub-realms are identified. The previously-defined Holarctic, Neotropical and Australian realms are recognized, but Paleotropical, Antarctic and Cape realms are not. Most realms have formed since Paleogene. Geographic isolation induced by plate tectonics dominates the formation of floristic realms, while current/historical climate has little contribution. Our study demonstrates the necessity of integrating distributions and phylogenies in regionalizing floristic realms and the interplay of macroevolutionary and paleogeographic processes in shaping regional floras.
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- 2023
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5. voluModel: Modelling species distributions in three‐dimensional space
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Hannah L. Owens and Carsten Rahbek
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3‐D ,ecological niche model ,geographic range ,marine ,pelagic ,R package ,Ecology ,QH540-549.5 ,Evolution ,QH359-425 - Abstract
Abstract Ecological niche modelling (ENM), species distribution modelling and related spatial analytical methods were first developed in two‐dimensional (2‐D) terrestrial systems; many common ENM workflows organize and analyse geographically structured occurrence and environmental data based on 2‐D latitude and longitude coordinates. This may be suitable for most terrestrial organisms, but pelagic marine species are distributed not only horizontally but also vertically. Extracting environmental data for marine species based only on latitude and longitude coordinates may result in poorly trained ENMs and inaccurate prediction of species' geographical distributions, as water conditions may vary strikingly with depth. We developed the voluModel R package to efficiently extract three‐dimensional (3‐D) environmental data for training ENMs (i.e. presences and absences/pseudoabsences/background). voluModel also provides tools for 3‐D ENM projection visualization and estimation of model extrapolation risk. We present the main features of the voluModel R package and provide a simple modelling workflow for Luminous Hake, Steindachneria argentea, as an example. We also compare results from 2‐D and 3‐D spatial models to demonstrate differences in how the modelling methods perform. The use of 3‐D environmental data generates more precise estimates of environmental conditions for training ENMs. This method also improves inference of species' suitable abiotic ecological niches and potential geographic ranges. 3‐D niche modelling is important step forward for marine macroecology and biogeography, as it will yield more accurate estimates of ocean species richness and potential past and future changes in the horizontal and vertical dimensions of species' geographic ranges. The latter is particularly relevant considering ongoing climate change that may cause redistribution of species in environmental space (both in latitude and depth) over time.
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- 2023
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6. Novel plant–frugivore network on Mauritius is unlikely to compensate for the extinction of seed dispersers
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Julia H. Heinen, F. B. Vincent Florens, Cláudia Baider, Julian P. Hume, W. Daniel Kissling, Robert J. Whittaker, Carsten Rahbek, and Michael K. Borregaard
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Science - Abstract
Many plant species depend on frugivores for seed dispersal. Here, the authors investigate plant-frugivore networks in Mauritius, finding that the new interactions gained from the arrival of non-native seed predators are unlikely to compensate for the extinction of seed dispersers.
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- 2023
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7. The evolution of critical thermal limits of life on Earth
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Joanne M. Bennett, Jennifer Sunday, Piero Calosi, Fabricio Villalobos, Brezo Martínez, Rafael Molina-Venegas, Miguel B. Araújo, Adam C. Algar, Susana Clusella-Trullas, Bradford A. Hawkins, Sally A. Keith, Ingolf Kühn, Carsten Rahbek, Laura Rodríguez, Alexander Singer, Ignacio Morales-Castilla, and Miguel Ángel Olalla-Tárraga
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Science - Abstract
Historical climate adaptation can give insight into the potential for adaptation to contemporary changing climates. Here Bennett et al. investigate thermal tolerance evolution across much of the tree of life and find different effects of ancestral climate on the subsequent evolution of ectotherms vs. endotherms.
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- 2021
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8. A tale of two seasons: The link between seasonal migration and climatic niches in passerine birds
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Alison Eyres, Katrin Böhning‐Gaese, C. David L. Orme, Carsten Rahbek, and Susanne A. Fritz
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comparative analysis ,macroecology ,nonbreeding ,Passeriformes ,seasonal migration ,tropics ,Ecology ,QH540-549.5 - Abstract
Abstract The question of whether migratory birds track a specific climatic niche by seasonal movements has important implications for understanding the evolution of migration, the factors affecting species' distributions, and the responses of migrants to climate change. Despite much research, previous studies of bird migration have produced mixed results. However, whether migrants track climate is only one half of the question, the other being why residents remain in the same geographic range year‐round. We provide a literature overview and test the hypothesis of seasonal niche tracking by evaluating seasonal climatic niche overlap across 437 migratory and resident species from eight clades of passerine birds. Seasonal climatic niches were based on a new global dataset of breeding and nonbreeding ranges. Overlap between climatic niches was quantified using ordination methods. We compared niche overlap of migratory species to two null expectations, (a) a scenario in which they do not migrate and (b) in comparison with the overlap experienced by closely related resident species, while controlling for breeding location and range size. Partly in accordance with the hypothesis of niche tracking, we found that the overlap of breeding versus nonbreeding climatic conditions in migratory species was greater than the overlap they would experience if they did not migrate. However, this was only true for migrants breeding outside the tropics and only relative to the overlap species would experience if they stayed in the breeding range year‐round. In contrast to the hypothesis of niche tracking, migratory species experienced lower seasonal climatic niche overlap than resident species, with significant differences between tropical and nontropical species. Our study suggests that in seasonal nontropical environments migration away from the breeding range may serve to avoid seasonally harsh climate; however, different factors may drive seasonal movements in the climatically more stable tropical regions.
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- 2020
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9. Evolutionary history and past climate change shape the distribution of genetic diversity in terrestrial mammals
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Spyros Theodoridis, Damien A. Fordham, Stuart C. Brown, Sen Li, Carsten Rahbek, and David Nogues-Bravo
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Science - Abstract
The drivers of genetic diversity (GD) are poorly understood at the global scale. Here the authors show, for terrestrial mammals, that within-species GD covaries with phylogenetic diversity and is higher in locations with more stable past climates. They also interpolate GD for data-poor locations such as the tropics.
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- 2020
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10. Dispersion fields reveal the compositional structure of South American vertebrate assemblages
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Michael K. Borregaard, Gary R. Graves, and Carsten Rahbek
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Science - Abstract
Ecologists continue to debate whether local species assemblages result from habitat filtering or from turnover among the regional species pool. Here the authors develop a “dispersion field” method to mapping species range overlaps, showing that regional turnover processes are key to local assembly.
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- 2020
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11. Advancing impact assessments of non-native species: strategies for strengthening the evidence-base
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Diederik Strubbe, Rachel White, Pim Edelaar, Carsten Rahbek, and Assaf Shwartz
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Biology (General) ,QH301-705.5 - Abstract
The numbers and impacts of non-native species (NNS) continue to grow. Multiple ranking protocols have been developed to identify and manage the most damaging species. However, existing protocols differ considerably in the type of impact they consider, the way evidence of impacts is included and scored, and in the way the precautionary principle is applied. These differences may lead to inconsistent impact assessments. Since these protocols are considered a main policy tool to promote mitigation efforts, such inconsistencies are undesirable, as they can affect our ability to reliably identify the most damaging NNS, and can erode public support for NNS management. Here we propose a broadly applicable framework for building a transparent NNS impact evidence base. First, we advise to separate the collection of evidence of impacts from the act of scoring the severity of these impacts. Second, we propose to map the collected evidence along a set of distinguishing criteria: where it is published, which methodological approach was used to obtain it, the relevance of the geographical area from which it originates, and the direction of the impact. This procedure produces a transparent and reproducible evidence base which can subsequently be used for different scoring protocols, and which should be made public. Finally, we argue that the precautionary principle should only be used at the risk management stage. Conditional upon the evidence presented in an impact assessment, decision-makers may use the precautionary principle for NNS management under scientific uncertainty regarding the likelihood and magnitude of NNS impacts. Our framework paves the way for an improved application of impact assessments protocols, reducing inconsistencies and ultimately enabling more effective NNS management.
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- 2019
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12. Essential indicators for measuring site‐based conservation effectiveness in the post‐2020 global biodiversity framework
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Jonas Geldmann, Marine Deguignet, Andrew Balmford, Neil D. Burgess, Nigel Dudley, Marc Hockings, Naomi Kingston, Helen Klimmek, Alanah Hayley Lewis, Carsten Rahbek, Sue Stolton, Claire Vincent, Sue Wells, Stephen Woodley, and James E. M. Watson
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2011–2020 Strategic Plan for Biodiversity ,biodiversity outcomes ,indicators ,management effectiveness ,other effective area‐based conservation measures ,post‐2020 ,General. Including nature conservation, geographical distribution ,QH1-199.5 - Abstract
Abstract Work on the post‐2020 global biodiversity framework is now well advanced and will outline a vision, goals, and targets for the next decade of biodiversity conservation and beyond. For the effectiveness of Protected areas and Other Effective area‐based Conservation Measures, an indicator has been proposed for “areas meeting their documented ecological objectives.” However, the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD) has not identified or agreed on what data should inform this indicator. Here we draw on experiences from the assessment of protected area effectiveness in the CBD's previous strategic plan to provide recommendations on the essential elements related to biodiversity outcomes and management that need to be captured in this updated indicator as well as how this could be done. Our proposed protected area effectiveness indicators include a combination of remotely derived products for all protected areas, combined with data from monitoring of both protected area management and trends in species and ecosystems based on field observations. Additionally, we highlight the need for creating a digital infrastructure to operationalize national‐level data‐capture. We believe these steps are critical and urge the adoption of suitable protected area effectiveness indicators before the post‐2020 framework is agreed in 2021.
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- 2021
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13. Associations between patterns of human intestinal schistosomiasis and snail and mammal species richness in Uganda: can we detect a decoy effect?
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Anna-Sofie Stensgaard, Thomas K Kristensen, Aslak Jørgensen, Narcis B Kabatereine, and Carsten Rahbek
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Biodiversity, Decoy effect, Dilution effect, Disease ecology, Health, Macroecology, Parasites, Schistosomiasis, Snails ,Ecology ,QH540-549.5 ,Microbial ecology ,QR100-130 - Abstract
In recent years, ecological research has suggested several mechanisms by which biodiversity might affect the risk of acquiring infectious diseases (i.e., the decoy, dilution or amplification effects), but the topic remains controversial. While many experimental studies suggest a negative relationship between biodiversity and disease, this relationship is inherently complex, and might be negative, positive or neutral depending on the geographical scale and ecological context. Here, applying a macroecological approach, we look for associations between diversity and disease by comparing the distribution of human schistosomiasis and biogeographical patterns of freshwater snail and mammal species richness in Uganda. We found that the association between estimated snail richness and human infection was best described by a negative correlation in non-spatial bi- and multivariate logistic mixed effect models. However, this association lost significance after the inclusion of a spatial component in a full geostatistical model, highlighting the importance of accounting for spatial correlation to obtain more precise parameter estimates. Furthermore, we found no significant relationships between mammal richness and schistosomiasis risk. We discuss the limitations of the data and methods used to test the decoy hypothesis for schistosomiasis, and highlight key future research directions that can facilitate more powerful tests of the decoy effect in snail-borne infections, at geographical scales that are relevant for public health and conservation.
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- 2016
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14. Virtual globes and geospatial health: the potential of new tools in the management and control of vector-borne diseases
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Anna-Sofie Stensgaard, Christopher F.L. Saarnak, Jürg Utzinger, Penelope Vounatsou, Christopher Simoonga, Gabriel Mushinge, Carsten Rahbek, Flemming Møhlenberg, and Thomas K. Kristensen
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geospatial health, virtual globes, Google Earth™, geographical information system, vector-borne disease, schistosomiasis, sub-Saharan Africa, CONTRAST. ,Geography (General) ,G1-922 - Abstract
The rapidly growing field of three-dimensional software modeling of the Earth holds promise for applications in the geospatial health sciences. Easy-to-use, intuitive virtual globe technologies such as Google Earth™ enable scientists around the world to share their data and research results in a visually attractive and readily understandable fashion without the need for highly sophisticated geographical information systems (GIS) or much technical assistance. This paper discusses the utility of the rapid and simultaneous visualization of how the agents of parasitic diseases are distributed, as well as that of their vectors and/or intermediate hosts together with other spatially-explicit information. The resulting better understanding of the epidemiology of infectious diseases, and the multidimensional environment in which they occur, are highlighted. In particular, the value of Google Earth™, and its web-based pendant Google Maps™, are reviewed from a public health view point, combining results from literature searches and experiences gained thus far from a multidisciplinary project aimed at optimizing schistosomiasis control and transmission surveillance in sub-Saharan Africa. Although the basic analytical capabilities of virtual globe applications are limited, we conclude that they have considerable potential in the support and promotion of the geospatial health sciences as a userfriendly, straightforward GIS tool for the improvement of data collation, visualization and exploration. The potential of these systems for data sharing and broad dissemination of scientific research and results is emphasized.
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- 2009
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15. Weather conditions drive dynamic habitat selection in a generalist predator.
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Peter Sunde, Kasper Thorup, Lars B Jacobsen, and Carsten Rahbek
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Medicine ,Science - Abstract
Despite the dynamic nature of habitat selection, temporal variation as arising from factors such as weather are rarely quantified in species-habitat relationships. We analysed habitat use and selection (use/availability) of foraging, radio-tagged little owls (Athene noctua), a nocturnal, year-round resident generalist predator, to see how this varied as a function of weather, season and availability. Use of the two most frequently used land cover types, gardens/buildings and cultivated fields varied more than 3-fold as a simple function of season and weather through linear effects of wind and quadratic effects of temperature. Even when controlling for the temporal context, both land cover types were used more evenly than predicted from variation in availability (functional response in habitat selection). Use of two other land cover categories (pastures and moist areas) increased linearly with temperature and was proportional to their availability. The study shows that habitat selection by generalist foragers may be highly dependent on temporal variables such as weather, probably because such foragers switch between weather dependent feeding opportunities offered by different land cover types. An opportunistic foraging strategy in a landscape with erratically appearing feeding opportunities in different land cover types, may possibly also explain decreasing selection of the two most frequently used land cover types with increasing availability.
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- 2014
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16. Public support for conserving bird species runs counter to climate change impacts on their distributions.
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Thomas Hedemark Lundhede, Jette Bredahl Jacobsen, Nick Hanley, Jon Fjeldså, Carsten Rahbek, Niels Strange, and Bo Jellesmark Thorsen
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Medicine ,Science - Abstract
There is increasing evidence that global climate change will alter the spatiotemporal occurrences and abundances of many species at continental scales. This will have implications for efficient conservation of biodiversity. We investigate if the general public in Denmark are willing to pay for the preservation of birds potentially immigrating and establishing breeding populations due to climate change to the same extent that they are for native species populations currently breeding in Denmark, but potentially emigrating due to climate change. We find that Danish citizens are willing to pay much more for the conservation of birds currently native to Denmark, than for bird species moving into the country--even when they are informed about the potential range shifts associated with climate change. The only exception is when immigrating species populations are under pressure at European level. Furthermore, people believing climate change to be man-made and people more knowledgeable about birds tended to have higher WTP for conservation of native species, relative to other people, whereas their preferences for conserving immigrant species generally resembled those of other people. Conservation investments rely heavily on public funding and hence on public support. Our results suggest that cross-country coordination of conservation efforts under climate change will be challenging in terms of achieving an appropriate balance between cost-effectiveness in adaptation and the concerns of a general public who seem mostly worried about protecting currently-native species.
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- 2014
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17. Equilibrium of global amphibian species distributions with climate.
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Mariana Munguía, Carsten Rahbek, Thiago F Rangel, Jose Alexandre F Diniz-Filho, and Miguel B Araújo
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Medicine ,Science - Abstract
A common assumption in bioclimatic envelope modeling is that species distributions are in equilibrium with contemporary climate. A number of studies have measured departures from equilibrium in species distributions in particular regions, but such investigations were never carried out for a complete lineage across its entire distribution. We measure departures of equilibrium with contemporary climate for the distributions of the world amphibian species. Specifically, we fitted bioclimatic envelopes for 5544 species using three presence-only models. We then measured the proportion of the modeled envelope that is currently occupied by the species, as a metric of equilibrium of species distributions with climate. The assumption was that the greater the difference between modeled bioclimatic envelope and the occupied distribution, the greater the likelihood that species distribution would not be at equilibrium with contemporary climate. On average, amphibians occupied 30% to 57% of their potential distributions. Although patterns differed across regions, there were no significant differences among lineages. Species in the Neotropic, Afrotropics, Indo-Malay, and Palaearctic occupied a smaller proportion of their potential distributions than species in the Nearctic, Madagascar, and Australasia. We acknowledge that our models underestimate non equilibrium, and discuss potential reasons for the observed patterns. From a modeling perspective our results support the view that at global scale bioclimatic envelope models might perform similarly across lineages but differently across regions.
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- 2012
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18. Analytical advancements in macroecology and biogeography
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Carsten Rahbek and José Alexandre F. Diniz‐Filho
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Ecology ,QH540-549.5 ,Microbial ecology ,QR100-130 - Published
- 2011
19. Specialization in plant-hummingbird networks is associated with species richness, contemporary precipitation and quaternary climate-change velocity.
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Bo Dalsgaard, Else Magård, Jon Fjeldså, Ana M Martín González, Carsten Rahbek, Jens M Olesen, Jeff Ollerton, Ruben Alarcón, Andrea Cardoso Araujo, Peter A Cotton, Carlos Lara, Caio Graco Machado, Ivan Sazima, Marlies Sazima, Allan Timmermann, Stella Watts, Brody Sandel, William J Sutherland, and Jens-Christian Svenning
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Medicine ,Science - Abstract
Large-scale geographical patterns of biotic specialization and the underlying drivers are poorly understood, but it is widely believed that climate plays an important role in determining specialization. As climate-driven range dynamics should diminish local adaptations and favor generalization, one hypothesis is that contemporary biotic specialization is determined by the degree of past climatic instability, primarily Quaternary climate-change velocity. Other prominent hypotheses predict that either contemporary climate or species richness affect biotic specialization. To gain insight into geographical patterns of contemporary biotic specialization and its drivers, we use network analysis to determine the degree of specialization in plant-hummingbird mutualistic networks sampled at 31 localities, spanning a wide range of climate regimes across the Americas. We found greater biotic specialization at lower latitudes, with latitude explaining 20-22% of the spatial variation in plant-hummingbird specialization. Potential drivers of specialization--contemporary climate, Quaternary climate-change velocity, and species richness--had superior explanatory power, together explaining 53-64% of the variation in specialization. Notably, our data provides empirical evidence for the hypothesized roles of species richness, contemporary precipitation and Quaternary climate-change velocity as key predictors of biotic specialization, whereas contemporary temperature and seasonality seem unimportant in determining specialization. These results suggest that both ecological and evolutionary processes at Quaternary time scales can be important in driving large-scale geographical patterns of contemporary biotic specialization, at least for co-evolved systems such as plant-hummingbird networks.
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- 2011
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20. Synergy in conservation of biodiversity and climate change mitigation – Nordic peatlands and forests
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Lars, Dinesen, primary, Anders, Højgård Petersen, additional, and Carsten, Rahbek, additional
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- 2021
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21. voluModel: Modelling species distributions in three‐dimensional space
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Carsten Rahbek and Hannah Owens
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Ecological Modeling ,Ecology, Evolution, Behavior and Systematics - Abstract
1) Ecological niche modelling (ENM), species distribution modelling and related spatial analytical methods were first developed in two-dimensional (2-D) terrestrial systems; many common ENM workflows organize and analyse geographically structured occurrence and environmental data based on 2-D latitude and longitude coordinates. This may be suitable for most terrestrial organisms, but pelagic marine species are distributed not only horizontally but also vertically. Extracting environmental data for marine species based only on latitude and longitude coordinates may result in poorly trained ENMs and inaccurate prediction of species' geographical distributions, as water conditions may vary strikingly with depth.2) We developed the voluModel R package to efficiently extract three-dimensional (3-D) environmental data for training ENMs (i.e. presences and absences/pseudoabsences/background). voluModel also provides tools for 3-D ENM projection visualization and estimation of model extrapolation risk.3) We present the main features of the voluModel R package and provide a simple modelling workflow for Luminous Hake, Steindachneria argentea, as an example. We also compare results from 2-D and 3-D spatial models to demonstrate differences in how the modelling methods perform.4) The use of 3-D environmental data generates more precise estimates of environmental conditions for training ENMs. This method also improves inference of species' suitable abiotic ecological niches and potential geographic ranges. 3-D niche modelling is important step forward for marine macroecology and biogeography, as it will yield more accurate estimates of ocean species richness and potential past and future changes in the horizontal and vertical dimensions of species' geographic ranges. The latter is particularly relevant considering ongoing climate change that may cause redistribution of species in environmental space (both in latitude and depth) over time. Ecological niche modelling (ENM), species distribution modelling and related spatial analytical methods were first developed in two-dimensional (2-D) terrestrial systems; many common ENM workflows organize and analyse geographically structured occurrence and environmental data based on 2-D latitude and longitude coordinates. This may be suitable for most terrestrial organisms, but pelagic marine species are distributed not only horizontally but also vertically. Extracting environmental data for marine species based only on latitude and longitude coordinates may result in poorly trained ENMs and inaccurate prediction of species' geographical distributions, as water conditions may vary strikingly with depth. We developed the voluModel R package to efficiently extract three-dimensional (3-D) environmental data for training ENMs (i.e. presences and absences/pseudoabsences/background). voluModel also provides tools for 3-D ENM projection visualization and estimation of model extrapolation risk. We present the main features of the voluModel R package and provide a simple modelling workflow for Luminous Hake, Steindachneria argentea, as an example. We also compare results from 2-D and 3-D spatial models to demonstrate differences in how the modelling methods perform. The use of 3-D environmental data generates more precise estimates of environmental conditions for training ENMs. This method also improves inference of species' suitable abiotic ecological niches and potential geographic ranges. 3-D niche modelling is important step forward for marine macroecology and biogeography, as it will yield more accurate estimates of ocean species richness and potential past and future changes in the horizontal and vertical dimensions of species' geographic ranges. The latter is particularly relevant considering ongoing climate change that may cause redistribution of species in environmental space (both in latitude and depth) over time.
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- 2023
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22. Environmental variation is a major predictor of global trait turnover in mammals
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Ben G. Holt, Gabriel C. Costa, Caterina Penone, Jean‐Philippe Lessard, Thomas M. Brooks, Ana D. Davidson, S. Blair Hedges, Volker C. Radeloff, Carsten Rahbek, Carlo Rondinini, and Catherine H. Graham
- Published
- 2017
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23. Species-specific traits mediate avian demographic responses under past climate change
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Ryan R. Germain, Shaohong Feng, Guangji Chen, Gary R. Graves, Joseph A. Tobias, Carsten Rahbek, Fumin Lei, Jon Fjeldså, Peter A. Hosner, M. Thomas P. Gilbert, Guojie Zhang, and David Nogués-Bravo
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Ecology ,Ecology, Evolution, Behavior and Systematics - Abstract
Anticipating species’ responses to environmental change is a pressing mission in biodiversity conservation. Despite decades of research investigating how climate change may affect population sizes, historical context is lacking and the traits which mediate demographic sensitivity to changing climate remain elusive. We use whole-genome sequence data to reconstruct the demographic histories of 263 bird species over the past million years and identify networks of interacting morphological and life-history traits associated with changes in effective population size (Ne) in response to climate warming and cooling. Our results identify direct and indirect effects of key traits representing dispersal, reproduction, and survival on long-term demographic responses to climate change, thereby highlighting traits most likely to influence population responses to on-going climate warming.One-Sentence SummaryInteracting traits influence sensitivity of bird population sizes to climate warming and cooling over the past million years.
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- 2023
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24. Global patterns of thermal niche filling in ectotherms
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Nikki Moore, Ignacio Morales-Castilla, Anna Hargreaves, Miguel Olalla-Tárraga, Fabricio Villalobos, Piero Calosi, Susana Clusella-Trullas, Juan Rubalcaba, Adam Algar, Brezo Martínez, Laura Rodríguez, Sarah Gravel, Joanne Bennett, Greta Carrete-Vega, Carsten Rahbek, Miguel Araújo, Joey Bernhardt, and Jennifer Sunday
- Abstract
Understanding how temperature determines the distribution of life is necessary to assess species’ sensitivities to contemporary climate change. Here we test the importance of temperature in limiting geographic ranges of ectotherms by comparing temperatures across occupied ranges to those species could potentially occupy based on their physiological thermal tolerances. Whereas marine and tropical terrestrial species occupy temperatures that closely match their thermal tolerances, high-latitude terrestrial species under-occupy warm temperatures and are absent from thermally tolerable areas towards the equator. This suggests that on land, temperature less often limits the equatorward range edge of temperate species, supporting the hypothesis that their historic expansion ‘out of the tropics’ was associated with tropical biotic exclusion. Our findings predict more direct responses to climate warming of marine ranges and cool range edges of terrestrial species.
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- 2023
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25. Distance and Regional Effects on the Value of Wild Bee Conservation
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Céline Moreaux, Jette Bredahl Jacobsen, Jürgen Meyerhoff, Bo Dalsgaard, Carsten Rahbek, and Niels Strange
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Choice experiment ,Economics and Econometrics ,Non-market valuation ,Regional identity ,Random parameter logit ,Biodiversity ,Management, Monitoring, Policy and Law ,Distance effect ,Latent class - Abstract
Many wild bee species are threatened across Europe, and with them the pollination function they provide. While numerous studies have assessed the value of bees as pollinators of crops, little is known about the non-marked value of bees. Using a choice modelling experiment, we examine these non-market values in Germany by identifying citizens’ willingness to pay (WTP) for wild bee conservation initiatives in four states. Effects of distance, state and regional affiliation are scrutinised, as previous research found these to affect respondents’ choices. Random parameter logit and latent class models are used to capture preference heterogeneity. Overall, we find strong support of wild bee conservation and a clear preference for improvement relative to the status quo, particularly in natural areas and for rare or endangered species. The yearly WTP for conservation initiatives ranges from 227 to 447€ per household. Our results show distance and regional effects on WTP. Initiatives in respondents’ home states are preferred, and increasing distance to initiatives in other states result in a slightly reduced WTP. Additionally, we observe regional preferences within an eastern and a western home region. These preferences are not explainable by socio-demographic characteristics, home state or distance and probably linked to social and cultural affiliations. We conclude that for widespread support in society and effective conservation initiatives, policy proposals must address this spatial heterogeneity from distance and regional effects. © 2022, The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature B.V. The authors thank the anonymous reviewers for their extensive and valuable comments on this manuscript. The authors would further like to thank Julian Sagebiel from the Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences for his support in the analysis of the survey data. They thank Alice Rogowski, Bennet Bergmann, Helena Leinweber, Jan Peters, Jean Paul Moreaux, Thomas Prossliner, as well as the focus groups participants for their valuable comments on the early version of the questionnaire. This research did not receive any specific grant from funding agencies in the public, commercial, or not-for-profit sectors. C.M., B.D. and C.R. thank the Danish National Research Foundation for its support of the Center for Macroecology, Evolution and Climate (Grant No. DNRF96).
- Published
- 2023
26. Changes in the functional diversity of modern bird species over the last million years
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Ryan R. Germain, Shaohong Feng, Lucas Buffan, Carlos P. Carmona, Guangii Chen, Gary R. Graves, Joseph A. Tobias, Carsten Rahbek, Fumin Lei, Jon Fjeldså, Peter A. Hosner, M. Thomas P. Gilbert, Guojie Zhang, and David Nogués-Bravo
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Multidisciplinary - Abstract
Despite evidence of declining biosphere integrity, we currently lack understanding of how the functional diversity associated with changes in abundance among ecological communities has varied over time and before widespread human disturbances. We combine morphological, ecological, and life-history trait data for >260 extant bird species with genomic-based estimates of changing effective population size (Ne) to quantify demographic-based shifts in avian functional diversity over the past million years and under pre-anthropogenic climate warming. We show that functional diversity was relatively stable over this period, but underwent significant changes in some key areas of trait space due to changing species abundances. Our results suggest that patterns of population decline over the Pleistocene have been concentrated in particular regions of trait space associated with extreme reproductive strategies and low dispersal ability, consistent with an overall erosion of functional diversity. Further, species most sensitive to climate warming occupied a relatively narrow region of functional space, indicating that the largest potential population increases and decreases under climate change will occur among species with relatively similar trait sets. Overall, our results identify fluctuations in functional space of extant species over evolutionary timescales and represent the demographic-based vulnerability of different regions of functional space among these taxa. The integration of paleodemographic dynamics with functional trait data enhances our ability to quantify losses of biosphere integrity before anthropogenic disturbances and attribute contemporary biodiversity loss to different drivers over time. Despite evidence of declining biosphere integrity, we currently lack understanding of how the functional diversity associated with changes in abundance among ecological communities has varied over time and before widespread human disturbances. We combine morphological, ecological, and life-history trait data for >260 extant bird species with genomic-based estimates of changing effective population size (Ne) to quantify demographic-based shifts in avian functional diversity over the past million years and under pre-anthropogenic climate warming. We show that functional diversity was relatively stable over this period, but underwent significant changes in some key areas of trait space due to changing species abundances. Our results suggest that patterns of population decline over the Pleistocene have been concentrated in particular regions of trait space associated with extreme reproductive strategies and low dispersal ability, consistent with an overall erosion of functional diversity. Further, species most sensitive to climate warming occupied a relatively narrow region of functional space, indicating that the largest potential population increases and decreases under climate change will occur among species with relatively similar trait sets. Overall, our results identify fluctuations in functional space of extant species over evolutionary timescales and represent the demographic-based vulnerability of different regions of functional space among these taxa. The integration of paleodemographic dynamics with functional trait data enhances our ability to quantify losses of biosphere integrity before anthropogenic disturbances and attribute contemporary biodiversity loss to different drivers over time.
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- 2023
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27. A New Nuclear Phylogeny Unravels Fast-Moving Radiations in the Tea Family (Theaceae)
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Yujing Yan, Rute Andreia Rodrigues da Fonseca, Carsten Rahbek, Charles C. Davis, and Michael Krabbe Borregaard
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- 2023
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28. Reply to: When did mammoths go extinct?
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Yucheng Wang, Ana Prohaska, Haoran Dong, Adriana Alberti, Inger Greve Alsos, David W. Beilman, Anders A. Bjørk, Jialu Cao, Anna A. Cherezova, Eric Coissac, Bianca De Sanctis, France Denoeud, Christoph Dockter, Richard Durbin, Mary E. Edwards, Neil R. Edwards, Julie Esdale, Grigory B. Fedorov, Antonio Fernandez-Guerra, Duane G. Froese, Galina Gusarova, James Haile, Philip B. Holden, Kristian K. Kjeldsen, Kurt H. Kjær, Thorfinn Sand Korneliussen, Youri Lammers, Nicolaj Krog Larsen, Ruairidh Macleod, Jan Mangerud, Hugh McColl, Marie Kristine Føreid Merkel, Daniel Money, Per Möller, David Nogués-Bravo, Ludovic Orlando, Hannah Lois Owens, Mikkel Winther Pedersen, Fernando Racimo, Carsten Rahbek, Jeffrey T. Rasic, Alexandra Rouillard, Anthony H. Ruter, Birgitte Skadhauge, John Inge Svendsen, Alexei Tikhonov, Lasse Vinner, Patrick Wincker, Yingchun Xing, Yubin Zhang, David J. Meltzer, and Eske Willerslev
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Mammoths ,Multidisciplinary ,Animals - Published
- 2022
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29. Author response for 'voluModel: Modelling species distributions in three‐dimensional space'
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null Hannah L. Owens and null Carsten Rahbek
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- 2022
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30. Biodiversity cradles and museums segregating within hotspots of endemism
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Jesper Sonne, Bo Dalsgaard, Michael K. Borregaard, Jonathan Kennedy, Jon Fjeldså, and Carsten Rahbek
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General Immunology and Microbiology ,Museums ,Biodiversity ,General Medicine ,Forests ,General Agricultural and Biological Sciences ,Ecosystem ,Phylogeny ,General Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology ,General Environmental Science - Abstract
The immense concentrations of vertebrate species in tropical mountains remain a prominent but unexplained pattern in biogeography. A long-standing hypothesis suggests that montane biodiversity hotspots result from endemic species aggregating within ecologically stable localities. Here, the persistence of ancient lineages coincides with frequent speciation events, making such areas both ‘cradles’ (where new species arise) and ‘museums’ (where old species survive). Although this hypothesis refers to processes operating at the scale of valleys, it remains supported primarily by patterns generated from coarse-scale distribution data. Using high-resolution occurrence and phylogenetic data on Andean hummingbirds, we find that old and young endemic species are not spatially aggregated. The young endemic species tend to have non-overlapping distributions scattered along the Andean treeline, a long and narrow habitat where populations easily become fragmented. By contrast, the old endemic species have more aggregated distributions, but mainly within pockets of cloud forests at lower elevations than the young endemic species. These findings contradict the premise that biogeographical cradles and museums should overlap in valley systems where pockets of stable climate persist through periods of climate change. Instead, Andean biodiversity hotspots may derive from large-scale fluctuating climate complexity in conjunction with local-scale variability in available area and habitat connectivity.
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- 2022
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31. Phytogeographic History of the Tea Family Inferred Through High-Resolution Phylogeny and Fossils
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Carsten Rahbek, Charles C. Davis, Dimitar Dimitrov, Zhiheng Wang, Yujing Yan, and Michael K. Borregaard
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0106 biological sciences ,0301 basic medicine ,genome skimming ,Theaceae ,Biogeography ,Subtropics ,010603 evolutionary biology ,01 natural sciences ,03 medical and health sciences ,Phylogenetics ,Phylogenomics ,plastid genome ,Genetics ,Phylogeny ,Ecology, Evolution, Behavior and Systematics ,Tea ,biology ,Fossils ,Disjunct distribution ,Reproducibility of Results ,phylogenomics ,Bayes Theorem ,Evergreen ,biology.organism_classification ,Phylogeography ,030104 developmental biology ,Evolutionary biology ,Cenozoic - Abstract
The tea family (Theaceae) has a highly unusual amphi-Pacific disjunct distribution: most extant species in the family are restricted to subtropical evergreen broadleaf forests in East Asia, while a handful of species occur exclusively in the subtropical and tropical Americas. Here, we used an approach that integrates the rich fossil evidence of this group with phylogenies in biogeographic analysis to study the processes behind this distribution pattern. We first combined genome-skimming sequencing with existing molecular data to build a robust species-level phylogeny for c.130 Theaceae species, resolving most important unclarified relationships. We then developed an empirical Bayesian method to incorporate distribution evidence from fossil specimens into historical biogeographic analyses and used this method to account for the spatiotemporal history of Theaceae fossils. We compared our method with an alternative Bayesian approach and show that it provides consistent results while significantly reduces computational demands which allows analyses of much larger data sets. Our analyses revealed a circumboreal distribution of the family from the early Cenozoic to the Miocene and inferred repeated expansions and retractions of the modeled distribution in the Northern Hemisphere, suggesting that the current Theaceae distribution could be the remnant of a larger continuous distribution associated with the boreotropical forest that has been hypothesized to occupy most of the northern latitudes in the early Cenozoic. These results contradict with studies that only considered current species distributions and showcase the necessity of integrating fossil and molecular data in phylogeny-based parametric biogeographic models to improve the reliability of inferred biogeographical events. [Biogeography; genome skimming; phylogenomics; plastid genome; Theaceae.]
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- 2021
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32. Anthropogenic vulnerability assessment of global terrestrial protected areas with a new framework
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Jiahui Meng, Yaoqi Li, Yuhao Feng, Fangyuan Hua, Xiaoli Shen, Sheng Li, Nawal Shrestha, Shijia Peng, Carsten Rahbek, and Zhiheng Wang
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Ecology, Evolution, Behavior and Systematics ,Nature and Landscape Conservation - Published
- 2023
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33. The influence of biogeographical and evolutionary histories on morphological trait‐matching and resource specialization in mutualistic hummingbird–plant networks
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Isabela Galarda Varassin, María Alejandra Maglianesi, Paulo Eugênio Oliveira, Erich Fischer, Oscar H. Marín-Gómez, Tiago S. Malucelli, Marcelo Ferreira de Vasconcelos, Silvana Buzato, Mónica B. Ramírez-Burbano, Ana M. Rui, Glauco Kohler, Ana M. Martín González, Stella Watts, Juan Francisco Ornelas, Ivan Sazima, Ruben Alarcón, Carlos Lara, Stefan Abrahamczyk, Boris A. Tinoco, Severino Mendes de Azevedo-Júnior, Raúl Ortiz-Pulido, Manoel Martins Dias Filho, Pietro K. Maruyama, Steffani Najara de Pinho Queiroz, Peter A. Cotton, Flor Maria Guedes Las-Casas, Thais B. Zanata, Andréa Cardoso Araujo, Katrine B. Hansen, Carsten Rahbek, André Rodrigo Rech, Jesper Sonne, Vanessa Martínez-García, Ruth Partida-Lara, Jonathan D. Kennedy, Licléia C. Rodrigues, Francielle Paulina de Araújo, Matthias Schleuning, Bo Dalsgaard, Blanca Itzel Patiño-González, Román Díaz-Valenzuela, Márcia A. Rocca, Marlies Sazima, Paula L. Enríquez, Caio Graco Machado, Edvaldo Nunes da Silva Neto, Benno I. Simmons, Jeferson Vizentin-Bugoni, Adriana O. Machado, Liliana Rosero-Lasprilla, Aline Góes Coelho, Edgar Chávez-González, and Maria F. Dufke
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0106 biological sciences ,Matching (statistics) ,Resource (biology) ,Biogeography ,island ecology ,specificity ,010603 evolutionary biology ,01 natural sciences ,03 medical and health sciences ,species traits ,biology.animal ,Specialization (functional) ,biogeography ,Ecology, Evolution, Behavior and Systematics ,030304 developmental biology ,plant–animal interactions ,0303 health sciences ,plant-animal interactions ,biology ,resource specialization ,Niche differentiation ,15. Life on land ,trait-matching ,Evolutionary biology ,BIOGEOGRAFIA ,niche partitioning ,Hummingbird ,Island ecology ,Morphological trait - Abstract
Functional traits can determine pairwise species interactions, such as those between plants and pollinators. However, the effects of biogeography and evolutionary history on trait-matching and trait-mediated resource specialization remain poorly understood.We compiled a database of 93 mutualistic hummingbird-plant networks (including 181 hummingbird and 1,256 plant species), complemented by morphological measures of hummingbird bill and floral corolla length. We divided the hummingbirds into their principal clades and used knowledge on hummingbird biogeography to divide the networks into four biogeographical regions: Lowland South America, Andes, North & Central America, and the Caribbean islands. We then tested: (a) whether hummingbird clades and biogeographical regions differ in hummingbird bill length, corolla length of visited flowers and resource specialization, and (b) whether hummingbirds' bill length correlates with the corolla length of their food plants and with their level of resource specialization.Hummingbird clades dominated by long-billed species generally visited longer flowers and were the most exclusive in their resource use. Bill and corolla length and the degree of resource specialization were similar across mainland regions, but the Caribbean islands had shorter flowers and hummingbirds with more generalized interaction niches. Bill and corolla length correlated in all regions and most clades, that is, trait-matching was a recurrent phenomenon in hummingbird-plant associations. In contrast, bill length did not generally mediate resource specialization, as bill length was only weakly correlated with resource specialization within one hummingbird clade (Brilliants) and in the regions of Lowland South America and the Andes in which plants and hummingbirds have a long co-evolutionary history. Supplementary analyses including bill curvature confirmed that bill morphology (length and curvature) does not in general predict resource specialization.These results demonstrate how biogeographical and evolutionary histories can modulate the effects of functional traits on species interactions, and that traits better predict functional groups of interaction partners (i.e. trait-matching) than resource specialization. These findings reveal that functional traits have great potential, but also key limitations, as a tool for developing more mechanistic approaches in community ecology.A free Plain Language Summary can be found within the Supporting Information of this article.
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- 2021
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34. Persistent Quaternary climate refugia are hospices for biodiversity in the Anthropocene
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Carsten Rahbek, Damien A. Fordham, Stuart C. Brown, Bette L. Otto-Bliesner, and Tom M. L. Wigley
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0303 health sciences ,Extinction ,010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences ,Ecology ,Biodiversity ,Climate change ,Species diversity ,Last Glacial Maximum ,15. Life on land ,Environmental Science (miscellaneous) ,01 natural sciences ,Biodiversity hotspot ,03 medical and health sciences ,Geography ,13. Climate action ,Ecosystem ,Species richness ,Social Sciences (miscellaneous) ,030304 developmental biology ,0105 earth and related environmental sciences - Abstract
Climate stability leads to high levels of speciation and reduced extinction rates, shaping species richness patterns1–3. Hotspots of species diversity often overlap with regions that experienced stable temperatures and, perhaps, variable rates of precipitation during the late Quaternary4,5. These hotspots potentially harbour many species with low vagility and small geographical ranges6, making them more vulnerable to future ecoclimatic change4,7,8. By comparing global and regional patterns of climate stability during short periods of unusually large and widespread climate changes since the Last Glacial Maximum with twenty-first-century patterns, we show that human-driven climate change will disproportionally affect biodiversity in late Quaternary climate refugia, ultimately affecting the species, communities and ecosystems that are most vulnerable to climate change. Moreover, future changes in absolute temperature will probably erode the mechanisms that are theorized to sustain biodiversity hotspots across time. These impending shifts from stable to unstable temperatures—projected for the majority of the world’s biodiversity regions—threaten to reduce the size and extent of important climatic safe havens for diversity. Where climate refugia are forecast to persist until the end of this century, temperatures in these refuges are likely to exceed the acclimation capacity of many species, making them short-term hospices for biodiversity at best7–9. The stability of climatic conditions since the Last Glacial Maximum has contributed to current global patterns of species richness. Changes in patterns of climate stability this century reveal areas where climate change could reduce biodiversity, with largest losses in past climatic safe havens.
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- 2020
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35. Avonet : morphological, ecological and geographical data for all birds
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Joseph A. Tobias, Catherine Sheard, Alex L. Pigot, Adam J. M. Devenish, Jingyi Yang, Ferran Sayol, Montague H. C. Neate‐Clegg, Nico Alioravainen, Thomas L. Weeks, Robert A. Barber, Patrick A. Walkden, Hannah E. A. MacGregor, Samuel E. I. Jones, Claire Vincent, Anna G. Phillips, Nicola M. Marples, Flavia A. Montaño‐Centellas, Victor Leandro‐Silva, Santiago Claramunt, Bianca Darski, Benjamin G. Freeman, Tom P. Bregman, Christopher R. Cooney, Emma C. Hughes, Elliot J. R. Capp, Zoë K. Varley, Nicholas R. Friedman, Heiko Korntheuer, Andrea Corrales‐Vargas, Christopher H. Trisos, Brian C. Weeks, Dagmar M. Hanz, Till Töpfer, Gustavo A. Bravo, Vladimír Remeš, Larissa Nowak, Lincoln S. Carneiro, Amilkar J. Moncada R., Beata Matysioková, Daniel T. Baldassarre, Alejandra Martínez‐Salinas, Jared D. Wolfe, Philip M. Chapman, Benjamin G. Daly, Marjorie C. Sorensen, Alexander Neu, Michael A. Ford, Rebekah J. Mayhew, Luis Fabio Silveira, David J. Kelly, Nathaniel N. D. Annorbah, Henry S. Pollock, Ada M. Grabowska‐Zhang, Jay P. McEntee, Juan Carlos T. Gonzalez, Camila G. Meneses, Marcia C. Muñoz, Luke L. Powell, Gabriel A. Jamie, Thomas J. Matthews, Oscar Johnson, Guilherme R. R. Brito, Kristof Zyskowski, Ross Crates, Michael G. Harvey, Maura Jurado Zevallos, Peter A. Hosner, Tom Bradfer‐Lawrence, James M. Maley, F. Gary Stiles, Hevana S. Lima, Kaiya L. Provost, Moses Chibesa, Mmatjie Mashao, Jeffrey T. Howard, Edson Mlamba, Marcus A. H. Chua, Bicheng Li, M. Isabel Gómez, Natalia C. García, Martin Päckert, Jérôme Fuchs, Jarome R. Ali, Elizabeth P. Derryberry, Monica L. Carlson, Rolly C. Urriza, Kristin E. Brzeski, Dewi M. Prawiradilaga, Matt J. Rayner, Eliot T. Miller, Rauri C. K. Bowie, René‐Marie Lafontaine, R. Paul Scofield, Yingqiang Lou, Lankani Somarathna, Denis Lepage, Marshall Illif, Eike Lena Neuschulz, Mathias Templin, D. Matthias Dehling, Jacob C. Cooper, Olivier S. G. Pauwels, Kangkuso Analuddin, Jon Fjeldså, Nathalie Seddon, Paul R. Sweet, Fabrice A. J. DeClerck, Luciano N. Naka, Jeffrey D. Brawn, Alexandre Aleixo, Katrin Böhning‐Gaese, Carsten Rahbek, Susanne A. Fritz, Gavin H. Thomas, Matthias Schleuning, University of Helsinki, Finnish Museum of Natural History, and Economic & Social Research Council (ESRC)
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IMPACTS ,Data Integration ,Continuous Variables ,Trait-based Ecology ,CONSERVATION ,Ecomorphology ,Environmental Sciences & Ecology ,Functional diversity ,Birds ,0603 Evolutionary Biology ,Avian Traits ,Animals ,Humans ,avian traits ,continuous variables ,data integration ,ecomorphology, functional diversity ,macroecology ,macroevolution ,trait-based ecology ,Avian traits ,Macroecology ,Ecosystem ,Phylogeny ,Ecology, Evolution, Behavior and Systematics ,Taxonomy ,Science & Technology ,CLIMATE-CHANGE ,Ecology ,0602 Ecology ,Functional Diversity ,Biodiversity ,Trait-based ecology ,Biological Evolution ,EVOLUTION ,0501 Ecological Applications ,1181 Ecology, evolutionary biology ,Continuous variables ,Macroevolution ,Data integration ,Life Sciences & Biomedicine ,TRAITS - Abstract
Tobias, Joseph A., Sheard, Catherine, Pigot, Alex L., Devenish, Adam J. M., Yang, Jingyi, Sayol, Ferran, Neate‐Clegg, Montague H. C., Alioravainen, Nico, Weeks, Thomas L., Barber, Robert A., Walkden, Patrick A., MacGregor, Hannah E. A., Jones, Samuel E. I., Vincent, Claire, Phillips, Anna G., Marples, Nicola M., Montaño‐Centellas, Flavia A., Leandro‐Silva, Victor, Claramunt, Santiago, Darski, Bianca, Freeman, Benjamin G., Bregman, Tom P., Cooney, Christopher R., Hughes, Emma C., Capp, Elliot J. R., Varley, Zoë K., Friedman, Nicholas R., Korntheuer, Heiko, Corrales‐Vargas, Andrea, Trisos, Christopher H., Weeks, Brian C., Hanz, Dagmar M., Töpfer, Till, Bravo, Gustavo A., Remeš, Vladimír, Nowak, Larissa, Carneiro, Lincoln S., Moncada R., Amilkar J., Matysioková, Beata, Baldassarre, Daniel T., Martínez‐Salinas, Alejandra, Wolfe, Jared D., Chapman, Philip M., Daly, Benjamin G., Sorensen, Marjorie C., Neu, Alexander, Ford, Michael A., Mayhew, Rebekah J., Fabio Silveira, Luis, Kelly, David J., Annorbah, Nathaniel N. D., Pollock, Henry S., Grabowska‐Zhang, Ada M., McEntee, Jay P., Carlos T. Gonzalez, Juan, Meneses, Camila G., Muñoz, Marcia C., Powell, Luke L., Jamie, Gabriel A., Matthews, Thomas J., Johnson, Oscar, Brito, Guilherme R. R., Zyskowski, Kristof, Crates, Ross, Harvey, Michael G., Jurado Zevallos, Maura, Hosner, Peter A., Bradfer‐Lawrence, Tom, Maley, James M., Stiles, F. Gary, Lima, Hevana S., Provost, Kaiya L., Chibesa, Moses, Mashao, Mmatjie, Howard, Jeffrey T., Mlamba, Edson, Chua, Marcus A. H., Li, Bicheng, Gómez, M. Isabel, García, Natalia C., Päckert, Martin, Fuchs, Jérôme, Ali, Jarome R., Derryberry, Elizabeth P., Carlson, Monica L., Urriza, Rolly C., Brzeski, Kristin E., Prawiradilaga, Dewi M., Rayner, Matt J., Miller, Eliot T., Bowie, Rauri C. K., Lafontaine, René‐Marie, Scofield, R. Paul, Lou, Yingqiang, Somarathna, Lankani, Lepage, Denis, Illif, Marshall, Neuschulz, Eike Lena, Templin, Mathias, Dehling, D. Matthias, Cooper, Jacob C., Pauwels, Olivier S. G., Analuddin, Kangkuso, Fjeldså, Jon, Seddon, Nathalie, Sweet, Paul R., DeClerck, Fabrice A. J., Naka, Luciano N., Brawn, Jeffrey D., Aleixo, Alexandre, Böhning‐Gaese, Katrin, Rahbek, Carsten, Fritz, Susanne A., Thomas, Gavin H., Schleuning, Matthias (2022): AVONET: morphological, ecological and geographical data for all birds. Ecology Letters 25 (3): 581-597, DOI: 10.1111/ele.13898, URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/ele.13898
- Published
- 2022
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36. Cover Image: Volume 25 Number 3, March 2022
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Joseph A. Tobias, Catherine Sheard, Alex L. Pigot, Adam J. M. Devenish, Jingyi Yang, Ferran Sayol, Montague H. C. Neate‐Clegg, Nico Alioravainen, Thomas L. Weeks, Robert A. Barber, Patrick A. Walkden, Hannah E. A. MacGregor, Samuel E. I. Jones, Claire Vincent, Anna G. Phillips, Nicola M. Marples, Flavia A. Montaño‐Centellas, Victor Leandro‐Silva, Santiago Claramunt, Bianca Darski, Benjamin G. Freeman, Tom P. Bregman, Christopher R. Cooney, Emma C. Hughes, Elliot J. R. Capp, Zoë K. Varley, Nicholas R. Friedman, Heiko Korntheuer, Andrea Corrales‐Vargas, Christopher H. Trisos, Brian C. Weeks, Dagmar M. Hanz, Till Töpfer, Gustavo A. Bravo, Vladimír Remeš, Larissa Nowak, Lincoln S. Carneiro, Amilkar J. Moncada R., Beata Matysioková, Daniel T. Baldassarre, Alejandra Martínez‐Salinas, Jared D. Wolfe, Philip M. Chapman, Benjamin G. Daly, Marjorie C. Sorensen, Alexander Neu, Michael A. Ford, Rebekah J. Mayhew, Luis Fabio Silveira, David J. Kelly, Nathaniel N. D. Annorbah, Henry S. Pollock, Ada M. Grabowska‐Zhang, Jay P. McEntee, Juan Carlos T. Gonzalez, Camila G. Meneses, Marcia C. Muñoz, Luke L. Powell, Gabriel A. Jamie, Thomas J. Matthews, Oscar Johnson, Guilherme R. R. Brito, Kristof Zyskowski, Ross Crates, Michael G. Harvey, Maura Jurado Zevallos, Peter A. Hosner, Tom Bradfer‐Lawrence, James M. Maley, F. Gary Stiles, Hevana S. Lima, Kaiya L. Provost, Moses Chibesa, Mmatjie Mashao, Jeffrey T. Howard, Edson Mlamba, Marcus A. H. Chua, Bicheng Li, M. Isabel Gómez, Natalia C. García, Martin Päckert, Jérôme Fuchs, Jarome R. Ali, Elizabeth P. Derryberry, Monica L. Carlson, Rolly C. Urriza, Kristin E. Brzeski, Dewi M. Prawiradilaga, Matt J. Rayner, Eliot T. Miller, Rauri C. K. Bowie, René‐Marie Lafontaine, R. Paul Scofield, Yingqiang Lou, Lankani Somarathna, Denis Lepage, Marshall Illif, Eike Lena Neuschulz, Mathias Templin, D. Matthias Dehling, Jacob C. Cooper, Olivier S. G. Pauwels, Kangkuso Analuddin, Jon Fjeldså, Nathalie Seddon, Paul R. Sweet, Fabrice A. J. DeClerck, Luciano N. Naka, Jeffrey D. Brawn, Alexandre Aleixo, Katrin Böhning‐Gaese, Carsten Rahbek, Susanne A. Fritz, Gavin H. Thomas, and Matthias Schleuning
- Subjects
Ecology, Evolution, Behavior and Systematics - Published
- 2022
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37. Response of an Afro-Palearctic bird migrant to glaciation cycles
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Kasper Thorup, Lykke Pedersen, Rute R. da Fonseca, Babak Naimi, David Nogués-Bravo, Mario Krapp, Andrea Manica, Mikkel Willemoes, Sissel Sjöberg, Shaohong Feng, Guangji Chen, Alba Rey-Iglesia, Paula F. Campos, Robert Beyer, Miguel B. Araújo, Anders J. Hansen, Guojie Zhang, Anders P. Tøttrup, Carsten Rahbek, Thorup, Kasper [0000-0002-0320-0601], da Fonseca, Rute R [0000-0002-2805-4698], Naimi, Babak [0000-0001-5431-2729], Krapp, Mario [0000-0002-2599-0683], Manica, Andrea [0000-0003-1895-450X], Willemoes, Mikkel [0000-0001-9363-6304], Feng, Shaohong [0000-0002-2462-7348], Chen, Guangji [0000-0002-9441-1155], Campos, Paula F [0000-0003-1285-4671], Araújo, Miguel B [0000-0002-5107-7265], Hansen, Anders J [0000-0002-1890-2702], Zhang, Guojie [0000-0001-6860-1521], Tøttrup, Anders P [0000-0001-8776-9629], Rahbek, Carsten [0000-0003-4585-0300], and Apollo - University of Cambridge Repository
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Male ,Asia ,Climate ,Climate Change ,Population Dynamics ,Models, Biological ,Birds ,Effective population size ,Animals ,Ice Cover ,Ecosystem ,Multidisciplinary ,Ecology ,paleoclimate reconstruction ,Biological Sciences ,Long-distance migration ,long-distance migration ,Europe ,Paleoclimate reconstruction ,hindcasting ,Africa ,Commentary ,Animal Migration ,Female ,Hindcasting ,effective population size ,Algorithms - Abstract
Migration allows animals to exploit spatially separated and seasonally available resources at a continental to global scale. However, responding to global climatic changes might prove challenging, especially for long-distance intercontinental migrants. During glacial periods, when conditions became too harsh for breeding in the north, avian migrants have been hypothesized to retract their distribution to reside within small refugial areas. Here, we present data showing that an Afro-Palearctic migrant continued seasonal migration, largely within Africa, during previous glacial–interglacial cycles with no obvious impact on population size. Using individual migratory track data to hindcast monthly bioclimatic habitat availability maps through the last 120,000 y, we show altered seasonal use of suitable areas through time. Independently derived effective population sizes indicate a growing population through the last 40,000 y. We conclude that the migratory lifestyle enabled adaptation to shifting climate conditions. This indicates that populations of resource-tracking, long-distance migratory species could expand successfully during warming periods in the past, which could also be the case under future climate scenarios.
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- 2022
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38. Range and extinction dynamics of the steppe bison in Siberia:A pattern-oriented modelling approach
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July A. Pilowsky, Sean Haythorne, Stuart C. Brown, Mario Krapp, Edward Armstrong, Barry W. Brook, Carsten Rahbek, Damien A. Fordham, Department of Geosciences and Geography, and Hominin Ecology
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steppe bison ,CALIBRATION ,Global and Planetary Change ,COMPLEX ,Ecology ,synergistic threats ,mechanistic model ,extinction dynamics ,CONSERVATION ,metapopulation ,palaeoclimate ,range shift ,COLONIZATION ,CLIMATE ,PRISCUS ,climate change ,spatially explicit population model ,SYSTEMS ,1181 Ecology, evolutionary biology ,distribution ,TEMPERATURE ,1172 Environmental sciences ,Ecology, Evolution, Behavior and Systematics ,POPULATION ,RESPONSES - Abstract
Aim To determine the ecological processes and drivers of range collapse, population decline and eventual extinction of the steppe bison in Eurasia. Location Siberia. Time period Pleistocene and Holocene. Major taxa studied Steppe bison (Bison priscus). Methods We configured 110,000 spatially explicit population models (SEPMs) of climate-human-steppe bison interactions in Siberia, which we ran at generational time steps from 50,000 years before present. We used pattern-oriented modelling (POM) and fossil-based inferences of distribution and demographic change of steppe bison to identify which SEPMs adequately simulated important interactions between ecological processes and biological threats. These "best models" were then used to disentangle the mechanisms that were integral in the population decline and later extinction of the steppe bison in its last stronghold in Eurasia. Results Our continuous reconstructions of the range and extinction dynamics of steppe bison were able to reconcile inferences of spatio-temporal occurrence and the timing and location of extinction in Siberia based on hundreds of radiocarbon-dated steppe bison fossils. We showed that simulating the ecological pathway to extinction for steppe bison in Siberia in the early Holocene required very specific ecological niche constraints, demographic processes and a constrained synergy of climate and human hunting dynamics during the Pleistocene-Holocene transition. Main conclusions Ecological processes and drivers that caused ancient population declines of species can be reconstructed at high spatio-temporal resolutions using SEPMs and POM. Using this approach, we found that climatic change and hunting by humans are likely to have interacted with key ecological processes to cause the extinction of the steppe bison in its last refuge in Eurasia.
- Published
- 2022
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39. The value of biotic pollination and dense forest for fruit set of Arabica coffee:A global assessment
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Celine Moreaux, Teja Tscharntke, Pietro K. Maruyama, Alexandra-Maria Klein, Jesper Sonne, Niels Strange, Alice Classen, Carlos H. Vergara, Shinsuke Uno, Blandina Felipe Viana, Stacy M. Philpott, Fernanda Teixeira Saturni, Tuanjit Sritongchuay, Adrian González-Chaves, Desirée Ayume Lopes Meireles, Juliana Hipólito, Bo Dalsgaard, Carsten Rahbek, Ernesto I. Badano, and Jean Paul Metzger
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BIODIVERSIDADE ,0106 biological sciences ,Canopy ,Pollination ,Biodiversity ,Bee richness ,Biology ,010603 evolutionary biology ,01 natural sciences ,Coffee ,Pollinator ,Forest ,2. Zero hunger ,Tree canopy ,Ecology ,Agroforestry ,010604 marine biology & hydrobiology ,Coffea arabica ,Systematic literature review ,15. Life on land ,Remote sensing ,Habitat ,Animal Science and Zoology ,Species richness ,Agronomy and Crop Science - Abstract
Animal pollinators are globally threatened by anthropogenic land use change and agricultural intensification. The yield of many food crops is therefore negatively impacted because they benefit from biotic pollination. This is especially the case in the tropics. For instance, fruit set of Coffea arabica has been shown to increase by 10–30% in plantations with a high richness of bee species, possibly influenced by the availability of surrounding forest habitat. Here, we performed a global literature review to (1) assess how much animal pollination enhances coffee fruit set, and to (2) examine the importance of the amount of forest cover, distance to nearby forest and forest canopy density for bee species richness and coffee fruit set. Using a systematic literature review, we identified eleven case studies with a total of 182 samples where fruit set of C. arabica was assessed. We subsequently gathered forest data for all study sites from satellite imagery. We modelled the effects of open (all forest with a canopy density of ≥25%), closed (≥50%) and dense (≥75%) forests on pollinator richness and fruit set of coffee. Overall, we found that animal pollination increases coffee fruit set by ~18% on average. In only one of the case studies, regression results indicate a positive effect of dense forest on coffee fruit set, which increased with higher forest cover and shorter distance to the forest. Against expectations, forest cover and distance to open forest were not related to bee species richness and fruit set. In summary, we provide strong empirical support for the notion that animal pollinators increase coffee fruit set. Forest proximity had little overall influence on bee richness and coffee fruit set, except when farms were surrounded by dense tropical forests, potentially because these may provide high-quality habitats for bees pollinating coffee. We, therefore, advocate that more research is done to understand the biodiversity value of dense forest for pollinators, notably assessing the mechanisms underlying the importance of forest for pollinators and their pollination services.
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- 2022
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40. voluModel: Modeling Species Distributions in Three Dimensions
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Hannah L. Owens, Carsten Rahbek
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- 2022
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41. Potential for invasion of traded birds under climate and land‐cover change
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Babak Naimi, César Capinha, Joana Ribeiro, Carsten Rahbek, Diederik Strubbe, Luís Reino, Miguel B. Araújo, Repositório da Universidade de Lisboa, Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia (Portugal), and European Commission
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land use change ,Global and Planetary Change ,Ecology ,Risk analysis ,Biodiversity ,Land use change traded birds ,Forests ,traded birds ,Birds ,CITES ,Environmental Chemistry ,Animals ,Humans ,Climate change ,Biological invasions ,Introduced Species ,Ecosystem ,General Environmental Science - Abstract
Humans have moved species away from their native ranges since the Neolithic, but globalization accelerated the rate at which species are being moved. We fitted more than half million distribution models for 610 traded bird species on the CITES list to examine the separate and joint effects of global climate and land-cover change on their potential end-of-century distributions. We found that climate-induced suitability for modelled invasive species increases with latitude, because traded birds are mainly of tropical origin and much of the temperate region is ‘tropicalizing.’ Conversely, the tropics are becoming more arid, thus limiting the potential from cross-continental in vasion by tropical species. This trend is compounded by forest loss around the tropics since most traded birds are forest dwellers. In contrast, net gains in forest area across the temperate region could compound climate change effects and increase the potential for colonization of low-latitude birds. Climate change has always led to regional redistributions of species, but the combination of human transportation, climate, and land-cover changes will likely accelerate the redistribution of species globally, increas ing chances of alien species successfully invading non-native lands. Such process of biodiversity homogenization can lead to emergence of non-analogue communities with unknown environmental and socioeconomic consequences., This research was funded by FEDER through the Operational Competitiveness Program COMPETE, and by the Portuguese Foundation for Science and Technology (FCT) ALIENTRADE project (PTDC/BIA-ECO/30931/2017-POCI-01-0145-FEDER-030931). CC was supported by FCT (CEECIND/02037/2017; UIDB/00295/2020 and UIDP/00295/2020). JR acknowledges support from FCT through a postdoc grant INTERREG Europe INVALIS—Protecting.
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- 2022
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42. Process-explicit models reveal the structure and dynamics of biodiversity patterns
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Julia A. Pilowsky, Robert K. Colwell, Carsten Rahbek, and Damien A. Fordham
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Multidisciplinary ,Biodiversity ,Biological Evolution ,Models, Biological ,Ecosystem - Abstract
With ever-growing data availability and computational power at our disposal, we now have the capacity to use process-explicit models more widely to reveal the ecological and evolutionary mechanisms responsible for spatiotemporal patterns of biodiversity. Most research questions focused on the distribution of diversity cannot be answered experimentally, because many important environmental drivers and biological constraints operate at large spatiotemporal scales. However, we can encode proposed mechanisms into models, observe the patterns they produce in virtual environments, and validate these patterns against real-world data or theoretical expectations. This approach can advance understanding of generalizable mechanisms responsible for the distributions of organisms, communities, and ecosystems in space and time, advancing basic and applied science. We review recent developments in process-explicit models and how they have improved knowledge of the distribution and dynamics of life on Earth, enabling biodiversity to be better understood and managed through a deeper recognition of the processes that shape genetic, species, and ecosystem diversity.
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- 2022
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43. Cover Image
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Damien A. Fordham, Stuart C. Brown, H. Reşit Akçakaya, Barry W. Brook, Sean Haythorne, Andrea Manica, Kevin T. Shoemaker, Jeremy J. Austin, Benjamin Blonder, Julia Pilowsky, Carsten Rahbek, and David Nogues‐Bravo
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Ecology, Evolution, Behavior and Systematics - Published
- 2021
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44. IUCN Red List protects avian genetic diversity
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Elisabetta Canteri, Peter A. Hosner, David Nogués-Bravo, Sen Li, Damien A. Fordham, and Carsten Rahbek
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Genetic diversity ,Ecology ,IUCN Red List ,Biology ,Ecology, Evolution, Behavior and Systematics - Published
- 2021
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45. Behavioural and morphological traits influence sex-specific floral resource use by hummingbirds
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María A. Maglianesi, Pietro K. Maruyama, Ethan J. Temeles, Matthias Schleuning, Thais B. Zanata, Marlies Sazima, Aquiles Gutiérrez‐Zamora, Oscar H. Marín‐Gómez, Liliana Rosero‐Lasprilla, Mónica B. Ramírez‐Burbano, Alejandra E. Ruffini, J. Ricardo Salamanca‐Reyes, Ivan Sazima, Laura E. Nuñez‐Rosas, María del Coro Arizmendi, Carsten Rahbek, and Bo Dalsgaard
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hummingbirds ,sex differences ,Male ,pollen loads ,Flowers ,niche overlap ,Plants ,behaviour ,Birds ,Phenotype ,niche breadth ,morphological traits ,resource similarity ,Animals ,Pollen ,Animal Science and Zoology ,Female ,Pollination ,Ecology, Evolution, Behavior and Systematics - Abstract
Research on resource partitioning in plant-pollinator mutualistic systems is mainly concentrated at the levels of species and communities, whereas differences between males and females are typically ignored. Nevertheless, pollinators often show large sexual differences in behaviour and morphology, which may lead to sex-specific patterns of resource use with the potential to differentially affect plant reproduction and diversification. We investigated variation in behavioural and morphological traits between sexes of hummingbird species as potential mechanisms underlying sex-specific flower resource use in ecological communities. To do so, we compiled a dataset of plant-hummingbird interactions based on pollen loads for 31 hummingbird species from 13 localities across the Americas, complemented by data on territorial behaviour (territorial or non-territorial) and morphological traits (bill length, bill curvature, wing length and body mass). We assessed the extent of intersexual differences in niche breadth and niche overlap in floral resource use across hummingbird species. Then, we tested whether floral niche breadth and overlap between sexes are associated with sexual dimorphism in behavioural or morphological traits of hummingbird species while accounting for evolutionary relatedness among the species. We found striking differences in patterns of floral resource use between sex. Females had a broader floral niche breadth and were more dissimilar in the plant species visited with respect to males of the same species, resulting in a high level of resource partitioning between sexes. We found that both territoriality and morphological traits were related to sex-specific resource use by hummingbird species. Notably, niche overlap between sexes was greater for territorial than non-territorial species, and moreover, niche overlap was negatively associated with sexual dimorphism in bill curvature across hummingbird species. These results reveal the importance of behavioural and morphological traits of hummingbird species in sex-specific resource use and that resource partitioning by sex is likely to be an important mechanism to reduce intersexual competition in hummingbirds. These findings highlight the need for better understanding the putative role of intersexual variation in shaping patterns of interactions and plant reproduction in ecological communities.La investigación sobre la partición de recursos en los sistemas mutualistas planta-polinizador se concentra principalmente en los niveles de especies y comunidades, mientras que las diferencias entre machos y hembras suelen ser ignoradas. Sin embargo, los polinizadores suelen mostrar grandes diferencias sexuales en su comportamiento y morfología, lo que puede dar lugar a patrones específicos de uso de recursos para cada sexo con el potencial de afectar de forma diferencial la reproducción y la diversificación de las plantas. Se estudió la variación en los rasgos de comportamiento y morfológicos entre sexos de las especies de colibríes como posibles mecanismos que explican el uso de recursos florales específicos para cada sexo en las comunidades ecológicas. Para ello, se recopiló un conjunto de datos de interacciones planta-colibrí con base en las cargas de polen de 31 especies de colibríes de 13 localidades en las Américas, además de datos sobre su comportamiento territorial (territorial o no territorial) y rasgos morfológicos (longitud y curvatura del pico, longitud del ala y masa corporal). Se evaluaron las diferencias intersexuales en la amplitud y el solapamiento del nicho en el uso de los recursos florales para las distintas especies de colibríes. Posteriormente, se comprobó si la amplitud del nicho floral y el solapamiento entre sexos están asociados con el dimorfismo sexual en los rasgos de comportamiento o morfológicos de las especies de colibríes, teniendo en cuenta el parentesco evolutivo entre las especies. Se encontraron diferencias notables en los patrones de uso de los recursos florales entre sexos. Las hembras presentaron una mayor amplitud de nicho floral y fueron más disímiles en las especies de plantas visitadas con respecto a los machos de la misma especie, lo que resultó en un alto nivel de partición de recursos entre los sexos. Se encontró que tanto la territorialidad como los rasgos morfológicos están relacionados con el uso de recursos específicos por sexo en las especies de colibríes. En particular, el solapamiento de nicho entre sexos fue mayor para las especies territoriales que para las no territoriales y, además, el solapamiento de nicho se asoció negativamente con el dimorfismo sexual en la curvatura del pico en las especies de colibríes. Estos resultados revelan la importancia de los rasgos conductuales y morfológicos de las especies de colibríes en el uso de recursos según el sexo y que la partición de recursos entre sexos es probablemente un mecanismo importante para reducir la competencia intersexual en los colibríes. Estos resultados ponen de manifiesto la necesidad de comprender mejor el rol que tiene la variación intersexual en los patrones de interacción y en la reproducción de las plantas en las comunidades ecológicas.
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- 2021
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46. Simulations of human migration into North America are more sensitive to demography than choice of palaeoclimate model
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July A. Pilowsky, Andrea Manica, Stuart Brown, Carsten Rahbek, and Damien A. Fordham
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Ecological Modeling - Published
- 2022
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47. Author response for 'Process‐explicit models reveal pathway to extinction for woolly mammoth using pattern‐oriented validation'
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Sean Haythorne, Barry W. Brook, H. Reşit Akçakaya, Stuart C. Brown, Kevin T. Shoemaker, Damien A. Fordham, David Nogués-Bravo, Carsten Rahbek, Julia Pilowsky, Jeremy J. Austin, Andrea Manica, and Benjamin Blonder
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Paleontology ,Extinction ,Woolly mammoth ,biology ,Scientific method ,biology.organism_classification ,Geology - Published
- 2021
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48. Long-term trends in the occupancy of ants revealed through use of multi-sourced datasets
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Nathan J. Sanders, Robert R. Dunn, Carsten Rahbek, Nick J. B. Isaac, and Julie K. Sheard
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Bayesian occupancy modelling ,Occupancy ,Ants ,Ecology ,Denmark ,Special Feature ,Biodiversity ,Bayes Theorem ,museum data ,Biology ,Agricultural and Biological Sciences (miscellaneous) ,Ecology and Environment ,Term (time) ,Habitat ,citizen science ,Citizen science ,Animals ,General Agricultural and Biological Sciences ,Formicidae ,Ecosystem - Abstract
We combined participatory science data and museum records to understand long-term changes in occupancy for 29 ant species in Denmark over 119 years. Bayesian occupancy modelling indicated change in occupancy for 15 species: five increased, four declined and six showed fluctuating trends. We consider how trends may have been influenced by life-history and habitat changes. Our results build on an emerging picture that biodiversity change in insects is more complex than implied by the simple insect decline narrative.
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- 2021
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49. Process-explicit models reveal pathway to extinction for woolly mammoth using pattern-oriented validation
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Damien A. Fordham, Benjamin Blonder, Jeremy J. Austin, Kevin T. Shoemaker, Andrea Manica, Sean Haythorne, David Nogués-Bravo, Carsten Rahbek, H. Resit Akçakaya, Barry W. Brook, Stuart C. Brown, and Julia Pilowsky
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0106 biological sciences ,range dynamics ,010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences ,Woolly mammoth ,Climate ,Population ,Metapopulation ,Extinction, Biological ,010603 evolutionary biology ,01 natural sciences ,Mammoths ,megafauna ,Pleistocene-Holocene transition ,Megafauna ,Animals ,Humans ,population model ,education ,Ecology, Evolution, Behavior and Systematics ,0105 earth and related environmental sciences ,education.field_of_study ,Extinction ,biology ,synergistic threats ,Ecology ,mechanistic model ,Fossils ,Anthropogenic Effects ,extinction dynamics ,metapopulation ,social sciences ,biology.organism_classification ,humanities ,ecological process ,Population decline ,Ancient DNA ,climate change ,Population model ,geographic locations - Abstract
Pathways to extinction start long before the death of the last individual. However, causes of early stage population declines and the susceptibility of small residual populations to extirpation are typically studied in isolation. Using validated process-explicit models, we disentangle the ecological mechanisms and threats that were integral in the initial decline and later extinction of the woolly mammoth. We show that reconciling ancient DNA data on woolly mammoth population decline with fossil evidence of location and timing of extinction requires process-explicit models with specific demographic and niche constraints, and a constrained synergy of climatic change and human impacts. Validated models needed humans to hasten climate-driven population declines by many millennia, and to allow woolly mammoths to persist in mainland Arctic refugia until the mid-Holocene. Our results show that the role of humans in the extinction dynamics of woolly mammoth began well before the Holocene, exerting lasting effects on the spatial pattern and timing of its range-wide extinction.
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- 2021
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50. Author response for 'IUCN Red List protects avian genetic diversity'
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Peter A. Hosner, Sen Li, Elisabetta Canteri, David Nogués-Bravo, Carsten Rahbek, and Damien A. Fordham
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Genetic diversity ,IUCN Red List ,Zoology ,Biology - Published
- 2021
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