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PURPOSE: Type 2 diabetes is a global health problem. While a healthy diet lowers risk of type 2 diabetes, less is known about diets with low climate impact. This study aimed to investigate adherence to the EAT-Lancet diet and risk of type 2 diabetes in a Danish setting.METHODS: In the Danish Diet, Cancer and Health cohort, dietary data were collected using a validated 192-item food frequency questionnaire, at recruitment in 1993-1997. In total, 54,232 participants aged 50-64 years at baseline with no previous cancer or diabetes diagnoses were included in the current analyses. The EAT-Lancet diet score was used to assess adherence to the EAT-Lancet diet. Participants scored 0 (non-adherence) or 1 (adherence) point for each of the 14 dietary components of the diet score (range 0-14 points). Participants were followed through register linkage until type 2 diabetes diagnosis or censoring. Hazard ratios and 95% confidence intervals (CI) were estimated using multivariable-adjusted Cox regression models.RESULTS: During a median 15-year follow-up period, 7130 participants developed type 2 diabetes. The hazard ratio for developing type 2 diabetes was 0.78 (95% CI 0.71; 0.86) for those with highest EAT-Lancet diet scores (11-14 points) compared to those with lowest scores (0-7 points) after adjusting for potential confounders. After further adjusting for potential mediators, including BMI, the corresponding hazard ratio was 0.83 (95% CI 0.76; 0.92).CONCLUSION: Greater adherence to the EAT-Lancet diet was associated with a lower risk of developing type 2 diabetes in a middle-aged Danish population.

Experimental evidence suggests that alcohol induces cutaneous carcinogenesis, yet epidemiological studies on the link between alcohol intake and skin cancer have been inconsistent. The European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) is a prospective cohort initiated in 1992 in 10 European countries. Alcohol intake at baseline and average lifetime alcohol intake were assessed using validated country-specific dietary and lifestyle questionnaires. Hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were estimated in Cox models. A total of 14 037 skin cancer cases (melanoma: n = 2457; basal-cell carcinoma (BCC): n = 8711; squamous-cell carcinoma (SCC): n = 1928; unknown: n = 941) were identified among 450 112 participants (average follow-up: 15 years). Baseline alcohol intake was positively associated with SCC (>15 vs 0.1-4.9 g/day: HR = 1.44, 95% CI = 1.17-1.77; Ptrend = .001), BCC (HR = 1.12, 95% CI = 1.01-1.23; Ptrend = .04), and melanoma risks in men (HR = 1.17, 95% CI = 0.95-1.44; Ptrend = .17), while associations were more modest in women (SCC: HR = 1.09, 95% CI = 0.90-1.30; Ptrend = .13; BCC: HR = 1.08, 95% CI = 1.00-1.17,Ptrend = .03; melanoma: HR = 0.93, 95% CI = 0.80-1.08, Ptrend = .13). Associations were similar for lifetime alcohol intake, with an attenuated linear trend. Lifetime liquor/spirit intake was positively associated with melanoma (fourth vs first quartile: HR = 1.47, 95% CI = 1.08-1.99; Ptrend = .0009) and BCC risks in men (HR = 1.17, 95% CI = 1.04-1.31;Ptrend = .14). Baseline and lifetime intakes of wine were associated with BCC risk (HR = 1.25 in men; HR = 1.11-1.12; in women). No statistically significant associations were found between beverage types and SCC risk. Intake of beer was not associated with skin cancer risk. Our study suggests positive relationships between alcohol intake and skin cancer risk, which may have important implications for the primary prevention of skin cancer. What's new? Drinking alcohol can make the skin more sensitive to sunlight and vulnerable to skin cancer. Here, the authors conducted a large prospective cohort study to evaluate whether alcohol consumption correlates with skin cancer risk. Among the 450 112 participants, there were 2457 cases of melanoma, 8711 of basal cell carcinoma, and 1928 of squamous cell carcinoma. There was a positive association between alcohol and all three cancer types, stronger in men than in women. The association varied somewhat by beverage type.

Evidence linking body fatness to breast cancer (BC) prognosis is limited. While it seems that excess adiposity is associated with poorer BC survival, there is uncertainty over whether weight changes reduce mortality. This study aimed to assess the association between body fatness and weight changes pre- and postdiagnosis and overall mortality and BC-specific mortality among BC survivors. Our study included 13,624 BC survivors from the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) study, with a mean follow-up of 8.6 years after diagnosis. Anthropometric data were obtained at recruitment for all cases and at a second assessment during follow-up for a subsample. We measured general obesity using the body mass index (BMI), whereas waist circumference and A Body Shape Index were used as measures of abdominal obesity. The annual weight change was calculated for cases with two weight assessments. The association with overall mortality and BC-specific mortality were based on a multivariable Cox and Fine and Gray models, respectively. We performed Mendelian randomization (MR) analysis to investigate the potential causal association. Five-unit higher BMI prediagnosis was associated with a 10% (95% confidence interval: 5–15%) increase in overall mortality and 7% (0–15%) increase in dying from BC. Women with abdominal obesity demonstrated a 23% (11–37%) increase in overall mortality, independent of the association of BMI. Results related to weight change postdiagnosis suggested a U-shaped relationship with BC-specific mortality, with higher risk associated with losing weight or gaining > 2% of the weight annually. MR analyses were consistent with the identified associations. Our results support the detrimental association of excess body fatness on the survival of women with BC. Substantial weight changes postdiagnosis may be associated with poorer survival.

Perspective on This Article from Anthropometric Measures, Physical Activity, and Risk of Glioma and Meningioma in a Large Prospective Cohort Study

Aims This study aimed to evaluate the association between physical activity and the incidence of coronary heart disease (CHD) in individuals with and without CHD risk factors. Methods and results EPIC-CVD is a case-cohort study of 29 333 participants that included 13 582 incident CHD cases and a randomly selected sub-cohort nested within the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) cohort. Self-reported physical activity was summarized using the Cambridge physical activity index (inactive, moderately inactive, moderately active, and active). Participants were categorized into sub-groups based on the presence or the absence of the following risk factors: obesity (body mass index ≥30 kg/m2), hypercholesterolaemia (total cholesterol ≥6.2 mmol/L), history of diabetes, hypertension (self-reported or ≥140/90 mmHg), and current smoking. Prentice-weighted Cox regression was used to assess the association between physical activity and incident CHD events (non-fatal and fatal). Compared to inactive participants without the respective CHD risk factor (referent), excess CHD risk was highest in physically inactive and lowest in moderately active participants with CHD risk factors. Corresponding excess CHD risk estimates amongst those with obesity were 47% [95% confidence interval (CI) 32–64%] and 21% (95%CI 2–44%), with hypercholesterolaemia were 80% (95%CI 55–108%) and 48% (95%CI 22–81%), with hypertension were 80% (95%CI 65–96%) and 49% (95%CI 28–74%), with diabetes were 142% (95%CI 63–260%), and 100% (95%CI 32–204%), and amongst smokers were 152% (95%CI 122–186%) and 109% (95%CI 74–150%). Conclusions In people with CHD risk factors, moderate physical activity, equivalent to 40 mins of walking per day, attenuates but does not completely offset CHD risk.

Background: Emerging evidence from cohort studies indicates that adiposity is associated with greater incidence of head and neck cancer. However, most studies have used self-reported anthropometry which is prone to error.Methods: Among 363,094 participants in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition study (EPIC) with measured anthropometry, there were 837 incident cases of head and neck cancer. Head and neck cancer risk was examined in relation to body mass index (BMI) [lean: 2, normal weight (reference): 22.5–24.9 kg/m2, overweight 25–29.9 kg/m2, obese: ≥30 kg/m2], waist circumference (WC), hip circumference (HC), and waist-to-hip ratio (WHR) using Cox proportional hazards models.Results: Among men, a BMI < 22.5 kg/m2 was associated with higher head and neck cancer risk [HR 1.62; 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.23–2.12)]; BMI was not associated with head and neck cancer among women. WC and WHR were associated with greater risk of head and neck cancer among women (WC per 5 cm: HR, 1.08; 95% CI, 1.02–1.15; WHR per 0.1 unit: HR, 1.64; 95% CI, 1.38–1.93). After stratification by smoking status, the association for WHR was present only among smokers (Pinteraction = 0.004). Among men, WC and WHR were associated with head and neck cancer only upon additional adjustment for BMI (WC per 5 cm: HR 1.16; 95% CI, 1.07–1.26; WHR per 0.1 unit: HR, 1.42; 95% CI, 1.21–1.65).Conclusions: Central adiposity, particularly among women, may have a stronger association with head and neck cancer risk than previously estimated.Impact: Strategies to reduce obesity may beneficially impact head and neck cancer incidence. Cancer Epidemiol Biomarkers Prev; 26(6); 895–904. ©2017 AACR.

Data on the role of dietary factors in endometrial cancer development are limited and inconsistent. We applied a “nutrient-wide association study” approach to systematically evaluate dietary risk associations for endometrial cancer while controlling for multiple hypothesis tests using the false discovery rate (FDR) and validating the results in an independent cohort. We evaluated endometrial cancer risk associations for dietary intake of 84 foods and nutrients based on dietary questionnaires in three prospective studies, the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC; N = 1,303 cases) followed by validation of nine foods/nutrients (FDR ≤ 0.10) in the Nurses' Health Studies (NHS/NHSII; N = 1,531 cases). Cox regression models were used to estimate HRs and 95% confidence intervals (CI). In multivariate adjusted comparisons of the extreme categories of intake at baseline, coffee was inversely associated with endometrial cancer risk (EPIC, median intake 750 g/day vs. 8.6; HR, 0.81; 95% CI, 0.68–0.97, Ptrend = 0.09; NHS/NHSII, median intake 1067 g/day vs. none; HR, 0.82; 95% CI, 0.70–0.96, Ptrend = 0.04). Eight other dietary factors that were associated with endometrial cancer risk in the EPIC study (total fat, monounsaturated fat, carbohydrates, phosphorus, butter, yogurt, cheese, and potatoes) were not confirmed in the NHS/NHSII. Our findings suggest that coffee intake may be inversely associated with endometrial cancer risk. Further data are needed to confirm these findings and to examine the mechanisms linking coffee intake to endometrial cancer risk to develop improved prevention strategies. Cancer Epidemiol Biomarkers Prev; 24(2); 466–71. ©2015 AACR.

Measures of adiposity and the risk of HNC among EPIC participants, by smoking status at baseline and second questionnaire

Scatterplots of the associations between BMI (kg/m2) and WC (Fig 1a) and between BMI (kg/m2) and WHR (Fig 1b).

Supplemental Material and Methods, Tables S1-S6, Figure S1 Supplemental Table S1. Hazard Ratiosa and 95% CIs from analyses of nutrient and food intakes (FDR≤0.10) reported in the baseline dietary assessment in relation to endometrial cancer risk in the EPIC study. Supplemental Table S2. Hazard Ratiosa and 95% CIs from analyses of intake of nutrients/foods at baseline (FDR > 0.10) in relation to endometrial cancer risk in the EPIC study. Supplemental Table S3. Age-standardized dietary intake of selected foods/nutrients (FDR≤0.10 in the EPIC studya) at the study baseline in the EPIC, NHS and NHSII study populations. Supplemental Table S4. Hazard Ratiosa and 95% CIs from analyses of intake of selected nutrients/foods at baseline in relation to endometrial cancer risk in the Nurses’ Health Study (NHS) and NHSII. Supplemental Table S5. Hazard Ratiosa and 95% CIs from analyses of the cumulative average intake of selected nutrients/foods in relation to endometrial cancer risk in the Nurses’ Health Study (NHS) and NHSII. Supplemental Table S6. Hazard Ratiosa and 95% CIs from analyses of the cumulative average intake of selected nutrients/foods in relation to invasive endometrial adenocarcinoma risk in the Nurses’ Health Study (NHS) and NHSII. Supplemental Figure S1. Summary of NWAS analytical method to test associations between food and nutrient intake and risk of endometrial cancer (EC.

Measures of adiposity and the risk of HNC in the EPIC study, excluding Oxford participants with calibrated self-reported anthropometry

Background: Individuals with higher blood 25-hydroxyvitamin D [25(OH)D] levels have a lower risk of developing colorectal cancer (CRC), but the influence of 25(OH)D on mortality after CRC diagnosis is unknown.Methods: The association between prediagnostic 25(OH)D levels and CRC-specific (N = 444) and overall mortality (N = 541) was prospectively examined among 1,202 participants diagnosed with CRC between 1992 and 2003 in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) cohort. Multivariable Cox proportional hazards models were used to calculate HRs and corresponding 95% CIs according to 25(OH)D quintiles and genetic variation within the VDR and CASR genes. Potential dietary, lifestyle, and metabolic effect modifiers were also investigated.Results: There were 541 deaths, 444 (82%) due to CRC. Mean follow-up was 73 months. In multivariable analysis, higher 25(OH)D levels were associated with a statistically significant reduction in CRC-specific (Ptrend = 0.04) and overall mortality (Ptrend = 0.01). Participants with 25(OH)D levels in the highest quintile had an adjusted HR of 0.69 (95% CI: 0.50–0.93) for CRC-specific mortality and 0.67 (95% CI: 0.50–0.88) for overall mortality, compared with the lowest quintile. Except for a possible interaction by prediagnostic dietary calcium intake (Pinteraction = 0.01), no other potential modifying factors related to CRC survival were noted. The VDR (FokI and BsmI) and CASR (rs1801725) genotypes were not associated with survival.Conclusions: High prediagnostic 25(OH)D levels are associated with improved survival of patients with CRC.Impact: Our findings may stimulate further research directed at investigating the effects of blood vitamin D levels before, at, and after CRC diagnosis on outcomes in CRC patients. Cancer Epidemiol Biomarkers Prev; 21(4); 582–93. ©2012 AACR.

Measures of adiposity and the risk of HNC among EPIC participants, including adjustment for weight change after baseline

BackgroundObservational studies have shown that women with an early menopause are at higher risk of stroke compared to women with a later menopause. However, associations with stroke subtypes are inconsistent and the causality is unclear. Therefore, we conducted a large-scale analysis to investigate the observational association between age at menopause and different types of stroke accompanied by a Mendelian Randomization analysis to evaluate causality.MethodsWe analyzed data of the UK Biobank and EPIC-CVD study. Postmenopausal women without a history of stroke at baseline were eligible for inclusion. The study endpoints were total stroke and stroke subtypes (i.e., ischemic stroke, hemorrhagic stroke, intracerebral hemorrhage, and subarachnoid hemorrhage). We investigated the observational association between age at menopause and risk of stroke using Cox-regression analysis in each study separately before combining effect sizes using random-effects meta-analysis. Cox-regression analyses were progressively adjusted for (1) age, (2) smoking status, body mass index, glycated hemoglobin, total cholesterol, and hypertension, and (3) ever use of hormone replacement therapy and age at menarche. We used two-sample Mendelian Randomization analysis to study whether there is a causal relationship between genetically proxied age at menopause and risk of stroke.ResultsA total of 204,244 women were included (7,883 from EPIC-CVD [5,292 from the sub-cohort]; 196,361 from the UK Biobank). Pooled mean baseline age was 58.9 years (SD 5.8) and pooled mean age at menopause was 47.8 years (SD 6.2). Natural menopause occurred in 77.6% of all women. Over a median follow-up of 12.6 years (IQR 11.8, 13.3), 6,770 women experienced a stroke. In multivariable adjusted observational analyses, the pooled hazard ratios per five years younger age at menopause were 1.09 (95% CI: 1.07, 1.12) for stroke, 1.09 (1.06, 1.13) for ischemic stroke, 1.10 (1.04, 1.16) for hemorrhagic stroke, 1.14 (1.08, 1.20) for intracerebral hemorrhage, and 1.00 (0.84, 1.20) for subarachnoid hemorrhage. The Mendelian Randomization analysis found no evidence for a causal relationship between genetically proxied age at menopause and risk of any type of stroke.ConclusionsEarlier age at menopause is associated with, but not causally related to the risk of stroke.Clinical PerspectiveWhat is new?This analysis involves over 200,000 postmenopausal women and more than 6,000 incident stroke cases and investigates the observational association between age at menopause and various subtypes of stroke. Furthermore, a Mendelian Randomization analysis was conducted to study whether associations are causal or not.Earlier age at menopause was statistically significantly associated with a higher risk of stroke and its subtypes ischemic stroke, hemorrhagic stroke, and intracerebral hemorrhage. We found no statistically significant relationship between earlier or later age at menopause and risk of subarachnoid hemorrhage.The Mendelian Randomization analysis suggested no causal effect of genetically proxied age at menopause and risk of any type of stroke.What are the clinical implications?Women with earlier age at menopause are at higher risk of stroke. The underlying reasons need to be further investigated.Our analysis suggested that earlier menopauseper sedoes not cause stroke. For prevention and adequate treatment of stroke in women, a better understanding of the specific role of menopause and the mechanistic background that leads to higher risk of stroke is needed.

BACKGROUND: Iron is an essential micronutrient with differing intake patterns and metabolism between men and women. Epidemiologic evidence on the association of dietary iron and its heme and non-heme components with colorectal cancer (CRC) development is inconclusive.METHODS: We examined baseline dietary questionnaire-assessed intakes of total, heme, and non-heme iron and CRC risk in the EPIC cohort. Sex-specific multivariable-adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were computed using Cox regression. We modelled substitution of a 1 mg/day of heme iron intake with non-heme iron using the leave one-out method.RESULTS: Of 450,105 participants (318,680 women) followed for 14.2 ± 4.0 years, 6162 (3511 women) developed CRC. In men, total iron intake was not associated with CRC risk (highest vs. lowest quintile, HR Q5vs.Q1:0.88; 95%CI:0.73, 1.06). An inverse association was observed for non-heme iron (HR Q5vs.Q1:0.80, 95%CI:0.67, 0.96) whereas heme iron showed a non-significant association (HR Q5vs.Q1:1.10; 95%CI:0.96, 1.27). In women, CRC risk was not associated with intakes of total (HR Q5vs.Q1:1.11, 95%CI:0.94, 1.31), heme (HR Q5vs.Q1:0.95; 95%CI:0.84, 1.07) or non-heme iron (HR Q5vs.Q1:1.03, 95%CI:0.88, 1.20). Substitution of heme with non-heme iron demonstrated lower CRC risk in men (HR:0.94; 95%CI: 0.89, 0.99). CONCLUSIONS: Our findings suggest potential sex-specific CRC risk associations for higher iron consumption that may differ by dietary sources.

BACKGROUND: Inflammatory, insulin and oestrogenic pathways have been linked to breast cancer (BC). We aimed to examine the relationship between pre-diagnostic dietary patterns related to these mechanisms and BC survival. METHODS: The diabetes risk reduction diet (DRRD), inflammatory score of diet (ISD) and oestrogen-related dietary pattern (ERDP) were calculated using dietary data from the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) study. Cox proportional hazards models were used to assess associations between dietary patterns and overall mortality and competing risk models for associations with BC-specific mortality. RESULTS: We included 13,270 BC cases with a mean follow-up after diagnosis of 8.6 years, representing 2340 total deaths, including 1475 BC deaths. Higher adherence to the DRRD score was associated with lower overall mortality (HR1–SD 0.92; 95%CI 0.87–0.96). Greater adherence to pro-inflammatory diets was borderline associated with 6% higher mortality HR1–SD 1.06; 95%CI 1.00–1.12. No significant association with the oestrogen-related dietary pattern was observed. None of the dietary patterns were associated with BC-specific mortality. CONCLUSIONS: Greater adherence to an anti-diabetic and anti-inflammatory diet prior to diagnosis is associated with lower overall mortality among BC survivors. Long-term adherence to these dietary patterns could be a means to improve the prognosis of BC survivors., Instituto de Salud Carlos III FI19/00197, European Social Fund (ESF), AECC Scientific Foundation PRYES211366AGUD, World Health Organization, Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, Danish Cancer Society, Ligue nationale contre le cancer, Institut Gustave Roussy, Mutuelle Generale de l'Education Nationale, Institut National de la Sante et de la Recherche Medicale (Inserm), Deutsche Krebshilfe Helmholtz Association German Institute of Human Nutrition Potsdam-Rehbruecke (DIfE) Federal Ministry of Education & Research (BMBF), Fondazione AIRC per la ricerca sul cancro Compagnia di San Paolo Consiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche (CNR), Dutch Ministry of Public Health, Welfare and Sports (VWS) Netherlands Cancer Registry (NKR), LK Research Funds, Dutch Prevention Funds Netherlands Organization for Scientific Research (NWO), World Cancer Research Fund International (WCRF), Netherlands Government, Health Research Fund (FIS)-Instituto de Salud Carlos III (ISCIII), Regional Governments of Andalucia, Asturias, Basque Country, Murcia and Navarra Navarra, Catalan Institute of Oncology-ICO (Spain), Swedish Cancer Society Swedish Research Council, County Councils of Skkne, Vasterbotten (Sweden), Cancer Research UK 14136 C8221/A29017, UK Research & Innovation (UKRI), Medical Research Council UK (MRC) 1000143 MR/M012190/1

Funding European Commission (DG-SANCO) , the International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC) , MRC Early Career Fellowship (MR/M501669/1) ., Background Unhealthy diets, the rise of non-communicable diseases, and the declining health of the planet are highly intertwined, where food production and consumption are major drivers of increases in greenhouse gas emissions, substantial land use, and adverse health such as cancer and mortality. To assess the potential co-benefits from shifting to more sustainable diets, we aimed to investigate the associations of dietary greenhouse gas emissions and land use with all-cause and cause-specific mortality and cancer incidence rates. Methods Using data from 443 991 participants in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) study, a multicentre prospective cohort, we estimated associations between dietary contributions to greenhouse gas emissions and land use and all-cause and cause-specific mortality and incident cancers using Cox proportional hazards regression models. The main exposures were modelled as quartiles. Co-benefits, encompassing the potential effects of alternative diets on all-cause mortality and cancer and potential reductions in greenhouse gas emissions and land use, were estimated with counterfactual attributable fraction intervention models, simulating potential effects of dietary shifts based on the EAT–Lancet reference diet. Findings In the pooled analysis, there was an association between levels of dietary greenhouse gas emissions and allcause mortality (adjusted hazard ratio [HR] 1·13 [95% CI 1·10–1·16]) and between land use and all-cause mortality (1·18 [1·15–1·21]) when comparing the fourth quartile to the first quartile. Similar associations were observed for cause-specific mortality. Associations were also observed between all-cause cancer incidence rates and greenhouse gas emissions, when comparing the fourth quartile to the first quartile (adjusted HR 1·11 [95% CI 1·09–1·14]) and between all-cause cancer incidence rates and land use (1·13 [1·10–1·15]); however, estimates differed by cancer type. Through counterfactual attributable fraction modelling of shifts in levels of adherence to the EAT–Lancet diet, we estimated that up to 19–63% of deaths and up to 10–39% of cancers could be prevented, in a 20-year risk period, by different levels of adherence to the EAT–Lancet reference diet. Additionally, switching from lower adherence to the EAT–Lancet reference diet to higher adherence could potentially reduce food-associated greenhouse gas emissions up to 50% and land use up to 62%. Interpretation Our results indicate that shifts towards universally sustainable diets could lead to co-benefits, such as minimising diet-related greenhouse gas emissions and land use, reducing the environmental footprint, aiding in climate change mitigation, and improving population health., European Commission European Commission Joint Research Centre, World Health Organization, UK Research & Innovation (UKRI) Medical Research Council UK (MRC) MR/M501669/1

Self-reported measures of height and weight are widely used in epidemiological studies. However, misreporting may bias estimates of associations between anthropometry and health outcomes. Further, few validation studies have compared self-reported and measured waist circumference (WC). This study aimed to quantify the agreement between self-reported and measured height, weight, body mass index (BMI), WC, and waist-to-height ratio (WHtR), and to investigate associations of these anthropometric measures with cardiometabolic biomarkers.Self-reported and measured anthropometric variables, as well as cardiometabolic biomarkers, were obtained from participants aged above 18 years at recruitment into the Diet, Cancer, and Health-Next Generation Cohort in 2015-19 (N=39,514). Pearson correlations (r) and Lin’s concordance correlations were applied to evaluate misreporting. Misreporting by age, sex and smoking status was investigated in linear regression models. Multivariable regression models and Receiver Operating Characteristic analyses assessed associations of self-reported and measured anthropometry with cardiometabolic biomarkers. Self-reported height was overreported by 1.07 cm, and weight was underreported by 0.32 kg on average. Self-reported BMI and WC were 0.42 kg/m2and 0.2 cm lower than measured, respectively. Self-reported and measured height, weight, BMI, WC and WtHR were strongly correlated (r=0.98, 0.99, 0.98, 0.88, 0.86, respectively). Age, sex, smoking, and BMI contributed to misreporting of all anthropometric measures. Associations between self-reported or measured anthropometric measures and cardiometabolic biomarkers were similar in direction and strength. Concordance between self-reported and measured anthropometric measures, including WC, was very high. Self-reported anthropometric measures were reliable when estimating associations with cardiometabolic biomarkers.

Background: Epidemiological studies have demonstrated an association between the degree of food processing in our diet and the risk of various chronic diseases. Much of this evidence is based on the international Nova classification system, which classifies food into four groups based on the type of processing: (1) Unprocessed and minimally processed foods, (2) Processed culinary ingredients, (3) Processed foods, and (4) “Ultra-processed” foods (UPF). The ability of the Nova classification to accurately characterise the degree of food processing across consumption patterns in various European populations has not been investigated so far. Therefore, we applied the Nova coding to data from the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) in order to characterize the degree of food processing in our diet across European populations with diverse cultural and socio-economic backgrounds and to validate this Nova classification through comparison with objective biomarker measurements. Methods: After grouping foods in the EPIC dataset according to the Nova classification, a total of 476,768 participants in the EPIC cohort (71.5% women; mean age 51 [standard deviation (SD) 9.93]; median age 52 [percentile (p)25– p75: 58–66] years) were included in the cross-sectional analysis that characterised consumption patterns based on the Nova classification. The consumption of food products classified as different Nova categories were compared to relevant circulating biomarkers denoting food processing, measured in various subsamples (N between 417 and 9,460) within the EPIC cohort via (partial) correlation analyses (unadjusted and adjusted by sex, age, BMI and country). These biomarkers included an industrial transfatty acid (ITFA) isomer (elaidic acid; exogenous fatty acid generated during oil hydrogenation and heating) and urinary 4-methyl syringol sulfate (an indicator for the consumption of smoked food and a component of liquid smoke used in UPF). Results: Contributions of UPF intake to the overall diet in % grams/day varied across countries from 7% (France) to 23% (Norway) and their contributions to overall % energy intake from 16% (Spain and Italy) to >45% (in the UK and Norway). Differences were also found between sociodemographic groups; participants in the highest fourth of UPF consumption tended to be younger, taller, less educated, current smokers, more physically active, have a higher reported intake of energy and lower reported intake of alcohol. The UPF pattern as defined based on the Nova classification (group 4;% kcal/day) was positively associated with blood levels of industrial elaidic acid (r = 0.54) and 4-methyl syringol sulfate (r = 0.43). Associations for the other 3 Nova groups with these food processing biomarkers were either inverse or non-significant (e.g., for unprocessed and minimally processed foods these correlations were –0.07 and –0.37 for elaidic acid and 4-methyl syringol sulfate, respectively). Conclusion: These results, based on a large pan-European cohort, demonstrate sociodemographic and geographical differences in the consumption of UPF. Furthermore, these results suggest that the Nova classification can accurately capture consumption of UPF, reflected by stronger correlations with circulating levels of industrial elaidic acid and a syringol metabolite compared to diets high in minimally processed foods., International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC), Imperial College London, NIHR Imperial Biomedical Research Centre (BRC), Danish Cancer Society (Denmark), Ligue Contre le Cancer, Institut Gustave Roussy, Mutuelle Générale de l’Education Nationale, Institut National de la Santé et de la Recherche Médicale (INSERM) (France), German Cancer Aid, German Cancer Research Center (DKFZ), German Institute of Human Nutrition Potsdam-Rehbruecke (DIfE), Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF) (Germany), Associazione Italiana per la Ricerca sul Cancro- AIRC-Italy, Compagnia di SanPaolo and National Research Council (Italy), Dutch Ministry of Public Health, Welfare and Sports (VWS), Netherlands Cancer Registry (NKR), LK Research Funds, Dutch Prevention Funds, Dutch ZON (Zorg Onderzoek Nederland), World Cancer Research Fund (WCRF), Statistics Netherlands (Netherlands), Health Research Fund (FIS) - Instituto de Salud Carlos III (ISCIII), Regional Governments of Andalucía, Asturias, Basque Country, Murcia and Navarra, and the Catalan Institute of Oncology - ICO (Spain), Swedish Cancer Society, Swedish Research Council and County Councils of Skåne and Västerbotten (Sweden), Cancer Research UK (14136 to EPIC-Norfolk; C8221/A29017 to EPIC-Oxford), Medical Research Council (1000143 to EPIC-Norfolk; MR/M012190/1 to EPIC-Oxford) (United Kingdom)

BACKGROUND Large language models have had a huge impact on natural language processing (NLP) in recent years. However, their application in epidemiological research is still limited to analysis of electronic health records and social media data. OBJECTIVE To demonstrate the potential beyond these domains, we aimed to develop prediction models based on texts collected in an epidemiological cohort and compared their performance to classical regression methods. METHODS We used data from the British National Child Development Study, where 10,567 11-year-old children wrote essays about how they imagined themselves as 25-year-olds. Fifteen percent of the dataset was set aside as a test set for performance evaluation. Pre-trained language models were fine-tuned using AutoTrain (by Hugging Face) to predict current reading comprehension score (0-35) and future body mass index (BMI) and physical activity (active vs. inactive) at the age of 33. We then compared their predictive performance (accuracy or discrimination) with linear and logistic regression models including demographic and lifestyle factors of the parents and the children between birth and age 11 as predictors. RESULTS NLP clearly outperformed linear regression when predicting reading comprehension score (RMSE=3.89 [95% CI: 3.74, 4.05] for NLP vs. 4.14 [3.98, 4.30] and 5.41 [5.23, 5.58] for regression models with and without general ability score as predictor). Predictive performance for physical activity was similarly poor for the two methods (AUC ROC=0.55 [0.52, 0.60] for both), but slightly better than random assignment, while linear regression clearly outperformed the NLP approach when predicting BMI (RMSE=4.38 [4.02, 4.74] for NLP vs. 3.85 [3.54, 4.16] for regression). The NLP approach did not perform better than simply assigning the mean BMI from the training set as predictors. CONCLUSIONS Our study demonstrated the potential of using large language models to utilize text collected in epidemiological studies. The performance of the approach appeared to depend on how directly the topic of the text was related to outcome. Open-ended questions specifically designed to capture certain health concepts and lived experiences in combination with NLP methods should receive more attention in future epidemiological studies.

Introduction: We investigated the impact of changes in lifestyle habits on colorectal cancer (CRC) risk in a multi-country European cohort. Methods: We used baseline and follow-up questionnaire data from the EPIC cohort to assess changes in lifestyle habits and their associations with CRC development. We calculated a healthy lifestyle index (HLI) score based on smoking status, alcohol consumption, body mass index and physical activity collected at the two timepoints. HLI ranged from 0 (most unfavourable) to 16 (most favourable). We estimated the association between HLI changes and CRC risk using Cox regression models and reported hazard ratios (HR) with 95% confidence intervals (CI). Results: Among 295,865 participants, 2,799 CRC cases were observed over a median of 7.8 years. Median time between questionnaires was 5.7 years. Each unit increase in HLI from the baseline to the follow-up assessment was associated with a statistically significant 3% lower CRC risk. Among participants in the top tertile at baseline (HLI>11), those in the bottom tertile at follow-up (HLI≤9) had a higher CRC risk (HR 1.34; 95%CI 1.02-1.75) than those remaining in the top tertile. Among individuals in the bottom tertile at baseline, those in the top tertile at follow-up had a lower risk (HR 0.77; 95%CI 0.59-1.00) than those remaining in the bottom tertile. Discussion: Improving adherence to a healthy lifestyle was inversely associated with CRC risk, while worsening adherence was positively associated with CRC risk. These results justify and support recommendations for healthy lifestyle changes and healthy lifestyle maintenance for CRC prevention.

BACKGROUND: National dietary guidelines contribute to primary prevention of a wide range of diseases. Yet, the importance of adhering to the Danish dietary guidelines for colorectal cancer prevention is unclear.METHODS: We used the Danish Diet, Cancer and Health cohort (n = 55,744) to investigate adherence to the Danish dietary guidelines and the risk of colorectal cancer. Cox proportional hazard models were used to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) for colorectal cancer and subtypes across the Danish Dietary Guidelines Index score (ranging 0-6 points, 6 being the greatest adherence). Effect modification by BMI was explored on multiplicative and additive scales.RESULTS: During a median follow-up of 18.9 years, 1030 men and 849 women developed colorectal cancer. Higher index scores were associated with a lower risk of colorectal cancer (HR 0.66; 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.53, 0.84, highest (≥5) versus lowest index score (CONCLUSION: Adherence to the Danish Dietary Guidelines was associated with a lower risk of colorectal cancer, particularly among people with overweight/obesity.

SummaryObesity may track across generations, due to genetics and family environmental factors, or possibly intrauterine programming. However, many studies only assess associations between maternal body mass index (BMI) on offspring obesity in childhood. To determine whether maternal and paternal associations with offspring BMI differ, and whether associations persist into adulthood, a systematic review and meta-analysis was done. MEDLINE, EMBASE and PubMed (to December 2019) were searched. Observational studies reporting associations between maternal or paternal BMI and adult offspring BMI were included. Offspring BMIs were reported as continuous or categorical measures. 46 studies were included in the systematic review. Meta-analyses were conducted using random effects models. Parental BMI was positively associated with offspring BMI in adulthood. The pooled mother-offspring standardized mean difference (SMD) was 0.23 (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.20, 0.26), and father-offspring SMD was similar: 0.22 (95%CI: 0.19, 0.25) in adjusted models. Maternal and paternal overweight and obesity were associated with higher offspring BMI with similar magnitudes. If these associations are causal, they support interventions targeting all family members, rather than focusing solely on mothers, to maintain a healthy weight.

Background: Alcohol intake is an established risk factor for colorectal cancer (CRC); however, there is limited knowledge on whether changing alcohol drinking habits during adulthood modifies CRC risk.Objective: Leveraging longitudinal exposure assessments on alcohol intake at different ages, we examined the relationship between change in alcohol intake and subsequent CRC risk.Methods: Within the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition, changes in alcohol intake comparing follow-up with baseline assessments were investigated in relation to CRC risk. The analysis included 191,180, participants and 1530 incident CRC cases, with exclusion of the first three years of follow-up to minimize reverse causation. Trajectory profiles of alcohol intake, assessed at ages 20, 30, 40, 50years, at baseline and during follow-up, were estimated using latent class mixed models and related to CRC risk, including 407,605 participants and 5,008 incident CRC cases.Results: Mean age at baseline was 50.2years and the follow-up assessment occurred on average 7.1 years later. Compared to stable intake, a 12 g/day increase in alcohol intake during follow-up was positively associated with CRC risk (HR = 1.15, 95%CI 1.04, 1.25), while a 12 g/day reduction was inversely associated with CRC risk (HR = 0.86, 95%CI 0.78, 0.95). Trajectory analysis showed that compared to low alcohol intake, men who increased their alcohol intake from early- to mid- and late-adulthood by up to 30 g/day on average had significantly increased CRC risk (HR = 1.24; 95%CI 1.08, 1.42), while no associations were observed in women. Results were consistent by anatomical subsite.Conclusions: Increasing alcohol intake during mid-to-late adulthood raised CRC risk, while reduction lowered risk

The coordination of EPIC is financially supported by the European Commission (DG-SANCO) and the International Agency for Research on Cancer. The national cohorts are supported by the Danish Cancer Society (Denmark); Ligue Contre le Cancer, Institut Gustave Roussy, Mutuelle Générale de l’Education Nationale, and Institut National de la Santé et de la Recherche Médicale (INSERM) (France); Deutsche Krebshilfe, Deutsches Krebsforschungszentrum, and Federal Ministry of Education and Research (Germany); the Hellenic Health Foundation (Greece); the Sicilian Government, AIRE ONLUS Ragusa, AVIS Ragusa, Associazione Italiana per la Ricerca sul Cancro-AIRC-Italy, and National Research Council (Italy); Dutch Ministry of Public Health, Welfare and Sports (VWS), Netherlands Cancer Registry (NKR), LK Research Funds, Dutch Prevention Funds, Dutch ZON (Zorg Onderzoek Nederland), World Cancer Research Fund (WCRF), and Statistics Netherlands (the Netherlands); Nordic Centre of Excellence programme on Food, Nutrition and Health. (Norway); Health Research Fund (FIS), PI13/00061 to Granada, PI13/01162 to EPIC-Murcia, Regional Governments of Andalucía, Asturias, Basque Country, Murcia, Navarra, and the Catalan Institute of Oncology (Barcelona), Spain; Swedish Cancer Society, Swedish Scientific Council, and County Councils of Skåne and Västerbotten (Sweden); Cancer Research UK (C864/A14136 to EPIC-Norfolk; C8221/A19170, C570/A16491 and C8221/ A290170 to EPIC-Oxford), Medical Research Council (MR/ N003284/1 and MC-UU_12015/1 to EPIC-Norfolk, MR/ M012190/1 to EPIC-Oxford (UK). The funding sources had no influence on the design of the study; the collection, analysis, and interpretation of data; the writing of the report; or the decision to submit the paper for publication.Support for this study was also provided by the COST Action CA17118 supported by COST (European Cooperation in Science and Technology, www.cost.eu) to DJH., Experimental evidence has implicated genotoxic Escherichia coli (E. coli) and enterotoxigenic Bacteroides fragilis (ETBF) in the development of colorectal cancer (CRC). However, evidence from epidemiological studies is sparse. We therefore assessed the association of serological markers of E. coli and ETBF exposure with odds of developing CRC in the European Prospective Investigation into Nutrition and Cancer (EPIC) study. Serum samples of incident CRC cases and matched controls (n = 442 pairs) were analyzed for immunoglobulin (Ig) A and G antibody responses to seven E. coli proteins and two isoforms of the ETBF toxin via multiplex serology. Multivariable-adjusted conditional logistic regression analyses were used to estimate odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for the association of sero-positivity to E. coli and ETBF with CRC. The IgA-positivity of any of the tested E. coli antigens was associated with higher odds of developing CRC (OR: 1.42; 95% CI: 1.05–1.91). Dual-positivity for both IgA and IgG to E. coli and ETBF was associated with >1.7-fold higher odds of developing CRC, with a significant association only for IgG (OR: 1.75; 95% CI: 1.04, 2.94). This association was more pronounced when restricted to the proximal colon cancers (OR: 2.62; 95% CI: 1.09, 6.29) compared to those of the distal colon (OR: 1.24; 95% CI: 0.51, 3.00) (pheterogeneity = 0.095). Sero-positivity to E. coli and ETBF was associated with CRC development, suggesting that co-infection of these bacterial species may contribute to colorectal carcinogenesis. These findings warrant further exploration in larger prospective studies and within different population groups., European Commission (DG-SANCO), International Agency for Research on Cancer, Danish Cancer Society (Denmark), Ligue Contre le Cancer, Institut Gustave Roussy, Mutuelle Générale de l’Education Nationale, and Institut National de la Santé et de la Recherche Médicale (INSERM) (France), Deutsche Krebshilfe, Deutsches Krebsforschungszentrum, and Federal Ministry of Education and Research (Germany), Hellenic Health Foundation (Greece), Sicilian Government, AIRE ONLUS Ragusa, AVIS Ragusa, Associazione Italiana per la Ricerca sul Cancro-AIRC-Italy, and National Research Council (Italy), Dutch Ministry of Public Health, Welfare and Sports (VWS), Netherlands Cancer Registry (NKR), LK Research Funds, Dutch Prevention Funds, Dutch ZON (Zorg Onderzoek Nederland), World Cancer Research Fund (WCRF), and Statistics Netherlands (the Netherlands), Nordic Centre of Excellence programme on Food, Nutrition and Health. (Norway), Health Research Fund (FIS), PI13/00061 to Granada, PI13/01162 to EPIC-Murcia, Regional Governments of Andalucía, Asturias, Basque Country, Murcia, Navarra, and the Catalan Institute of Oncology (Barcelona), Spain, Swedish Cancer Society, Swedish Scientific Council, and County Councils of Skåne and Västerbotten (Sweden), Cancer Research UK (C864/A14136 to EPIC-Norfolk; C8221/A19170, C570/A16491 and C8221/ A290170 to EPIC-Oxford), Medical Research Council (MR/ N003284/1 and MC-UU_12015/1 to EPIC-Norfolk, MR/ M012190/1 to EPIC-Oxford (UK), COST Action CA17118 supported by COST (European Cooperation in Science and Technology)