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Pathogen nomenclature systems are a key component of effective communication and collaboration for researchers and public health workers. Since February 2021, the Pango nomenclature for SARS-CoV-2 has been sustained by crowdsourced lineage proposals as new isolates were added to a growing global dataset. This approach to dynamic lineage designation is dependent on a large and active epidemiological community identifying and curating each new lineage. This is vulnerable to time-critical delays as well as regional and personal bias. To address these issues, we developed a simple heuristic approach that divides a phylogenetic tree into lineages based on shared ancestral genotypes. We additionally provide a framework that automatically prioritizes the lineages by growth rate and association with key mutations or locations, extensible to any pathogen. Our implementation is efficient on extremely large phylogenetic trees and produces similar results to existing Pango lineage designations when applied to SARS-CoV-2. This method offers a simple, automated and consistent approach to pathogen nomenclature that can assist researchers in developing and maintaining phylogeny-based classifications in the face of ever increasing genomic datasets.

Molnupiravir, an antiviral medication that has been widely used against SARS-CoV-2, acts by inducing mutations in the virus genome during replication. Most random mutations are likely to be deleterious to the virus, and many will be lethal. Molnupiravir-induced elevated mutation rates have been shown to decrease viral load in animal models. However, it is possible that some patients treated with molnupiravir might not fully clear SARS-CoV-2 infections, with the potential for onward transmission of molnupiravir-mutated viruses. We set out to systematically investigate global sequencing databases for a signature of molnupiravir mutagenesis. We find that a specific class of long phylogenetic branches appear almost exclusively in sequences from 2022, after the introduction of molnupiravir treatment, and in countries and age-groups with widespread usage of the drug. We calculate a mutational spectrum from the AGILE placebo-controlled clinical trial of molnupiravir and show that its signature, with elevated G-to-A and C-to-T rates, largely corresponds to the mutational spectrum seen in these long branches. Our data suggest a signature of molnupiravir mutagenesis can be seen in global sequencing databases, in some cases with onwards transmission.

Exposure to different mutagens leaves distinct mutational patterns that can allow prediction of pathogen replication niches (Ruis 2022). We therefore hypothesised that analysis of SARS-CoV-2 mutational spectra might show lineage-specific differences, dependant on the dominant site(s) of replication and onwards transmission, and could therefore rapidly infer virulence of emergent variants of concern (VOC; Konings 2021). Through mutational spectrum analysis, we found a significant reduction in G>T mutations in Omicron, which replicates in the upper respiratory tract (URT), compared to other lineages, which replicate in both upper and lower respiratory tracts (LRT). Mutational analysis of other viruses and bacteria indicates a robust, generalisable association of high G>T mutations with replication within the LRT. Monitoring G>T mutation rates over time, we found early separation of Omicron from Beta, Gamma and Delta, while the mutational burden in Alpha varied consistent with changes in transmission source as social restrictions were lifted. This supports the use of mutational spectra to infer niches of established and emergent pathogens.

As observed in cancers, individual mutagens and defects in DNA repair create distinctive mutational signatures that combine to form context-specific spectra within cells. We reasoned that similar processes must occur in bacterial lineages, potentially allowing decomposition analysis to identify disrupted DNA repair processes and niche-specific mutagen exposure. Here we reconstructed mutational spectra for 84 clades from 31 diverse bacterial species, assigned signatures to specific DNA repair pathways using hypermutator lineages, and, by comparing mutational spectra of clades from different environmental and biological locations, extracted reproducible niche-associated mutational signatures. We show that mutational spectra can predict general and specific bacterial niches and therefore reveal the site of infection and types of transmission routes for established and emergent human bacterial pathogens.One sentence summaryVariable mutagen exposure and DNA repair drive differential mutational spectra between bacteria and enable niche inference

Mycobacterium abscessus, a multidrug-resistant nontuberculous mycobacterium, has emerged as a major pathogen affecting people with cystic fibrosis (CF). Although originally thought to be acquired independently from the environment, most individuals are infected with one of several dominant circulating clones (DCCs), indicating the presence of global transmission networks of M. abscessus. How and when these clones emerged and spread globally is unclear. Here, we use evolutionary analyses of isolates from individuals both with and without CF to reconstruct the population history, spatiotemporal spread and recent transmission networks of the DCCs. We demonstrate synchronous expansion of six unrelated DCCs in the 1960s, a period associated with major changes in CF care and survival. Each of these clones has spread globally as a result of rare intercontinental transmission events. We show that the DCCs, but not environmentally acquired isolates, exhibit a specific smoking-associated mutational signature and that current transmission networks include individuals both with and without CF. We therefore propose that the DCCs initially emerged in non-CF populations but were then amplified and spread through the CF community. While individuals with CF are probably the most permissive host, non-CF individuals continue to play a key role in transmission networks and may facilitate long-distance transmission., In this Article, the authors perform evolutionary analyses of M. abscessus clinical isolates and report the emergence of dominant circulating clones (DCCs) in non-cystic fibrosis (CF) individuals followed by amplification in the CF community.

The ongoing pandemic spread of a new human coronavirus, SARS-CoV-2, which is associated with severe pneumonia/disease (COVID-19), has resulted in the generation of tens of thousands of virus genome sequences. The rate of genome generation is unprecedented, yet there is currently no coherent nor accepted scheme for naming the expanding phylogenetic diversity of SARS-CoV-2. Here, we present a rational and dynamic virus nomenclature that uses a phylogenetic framework to identify those lineages that contribute most to active spread. Our system is made tractable by constraining the number and depth of hierarchical lineage labels and by flagging and delabelling virus lineages that become unobserved and hence are probably inactive. By focusing on active virus lineages and those spreading to new locations, this nomenclature will assist in tracking and understanding the patterns and determinants of the global spread of SARS-CoV-2.

Background: \ud The SARS-CoV-2 delta (B.1.617.2) variant was first detected in England in March, 2021. It has since rapidly become the predominant lineage, owing to high transmissibility. It is suspected that the delta variant is associated with more severe disease than the previously dominant alpha (B.1.1.7) variant. We aimed to characterise the severity of the delta variant compared with the alpha variant by determining the relative risk of hospital attendance outcomes.\ud \ud Methods: \ud This cohort study was done among all patients with COVID-19 in England between March 29 and May 23, 2021, who were identified as being infected with either the alpha or delta SARS-CoV-2 variant through whole-genome sequencing. Individual-level data on these patients were linked to routine health-care datasets on vaccination, emergency care attendance, hospital admission, and mortality (data from Public Health England's Second Generation Surveillance System and COVID-19-associated deaths dataset; the National Immunisation Management System; and NHS Digital Secondary Uses Services and Emergency Care Data Set). The risk for hospital admission and emergency care attendance were compared between patients with sequencing-confirmed delta and alpha variants for the whole cohort and by vaccination status subgroups. Stratified Cox regression was used to adjust for age, sex, ethnicity, deprivation, recent international travel, area of residence, calendar week, and vaccination status.\ud \ud Findings: \ud Individual-level data on 43 338 COVID-19-positive patients (8682 with the delta variant, 34 656 with the alpha variant; median age 31 years [IQR 17–43]) were included in our analysis. 196 (2·3%) patients with the delta variant versus 764 (2·2%) patients with the alpha variant were admitted to hospital within 14 days after the specimen was taken (adjusted hazard ratio [HR] 2·26 [95% CI 1·32–3·89]). 498 (5·7%) patients with the delta variant versus 1448 (4·2%) patients with the alpha variant were admitted to hospital or attended emergency care within 14 days (adjusted HR 1·45 [1·08–1·95]). Most patients were unvaccinated (32 078 [74·0%] across both groups). The HRs for vaccinated patients with the delta variant versus the alpha variant (adjusted HR for hospital admission 1·94 [95% CI 0·47–8·05] and for hospital admission or emergency care attendance 1·58 [0·69–3·61]) were similar to the HRs for unvaccinated patients (2·32 [1·29–4·16] and 1·43 [1·04–1·97]; p=0·82 for both) but the precision for the vaccinated subgroup was low.\ud \ud Interpretation: \ud This large national study found a higher hospital admission or emergency care attendance risk for patients with COVID-19 infected with the delta variant compared with the alpha variant. Results suggest that outbreaks of the delta variant in unvaccinated populations might lead to a greater burden on health-care services than the alpha variant.\ud \ud Funding: \ud Medical Research Council; UK Research and Innovation; Department of Health and Social Care; and National Institute for Health Research.

The response of the global virus genomics community to the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) pandemic has been unprecedented, with significant advances made towards the ‘real-time’ generation and sharing of SARS-CoV-2 genomic data. The rapid growth in virus genome data production has necessitated the development of new analytical methods that can deal with orders of magnitude of more genomes than previously available. Here, we present and describe Phylogenetic Assignment of Named Global Outbreak Lineages (pangolin), a computational tool that has been developed to assign the most likely lineage to a given SARS-CoV-2 genome sequence according to the Pango dynamic lineage nomenclature scheme. To date, nearly two million virus genomes have been submitted to the web-application implementation of pangolin, which has facilitated the SARS-CoV-2 genomic epidemiology and provided researchers with access to actionable information about the pandemic’s transmission lineages., Virus Evolution, 7 (2), ISSN:2057-1577

Genetic recombination is an important driving force of coronavirus evolution. While some degree of virus recombination has been reported during the COVID-19 pandemic, previously detected recombinant lineages of SARS-CoV-2 have shown limited circulation and been observed only in restricted areas. Prompted by reports of unusual genetic similarities among several Pango lineages detected mainly in North and Central America, we present a detailed phylogenetic analysis of four SARS-CoV-2 lineages (B.1.627, B.1.628, B.1.631 and B.1.634) in order to investigate the possibility of virus recombination among them. Two of these lineages, B.1.628 and B.1.631, are split into two distinct clusters (here named major and minor). Our phylogenetic and recombination analyses of these lineages find well-supported phylogenetic differences between the Orf1ab region and the rest of the genome (S protein and remaining reading frames). The lineages also contain several deletions in the NSP6, Orf3a and S proteins that can augment reconstruction of reliable evolutionary histories. By reconciling the deletions and phylogenetic data, we conclude that the B.1.628 major cluster originated from a recombination event between a B.1.631 major virus and a lineage B.1.634 virus. This scenario inferred from genetic data is supported by the spatial and temporal distribution of the three lineages, which all co-circulated in the USA and Mexico during 2021, suggesting this region is where the recombination event took place. We therefore support the designation of the B.1.628 major cluster as recombinant lineage XB in the Pango nomenclature. The widespread circulation of lineage XB across multiple countries over a longer timespan than the previously designated recombinant XA lineage raises important questions regarding the role and potential effects of recombination on the evolution of SARS-CoV-2 during the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic.

Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infections were rising during early summer 2021 in many countries as a result of the Delta variant. We assessed reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction swab positivity in the Real-time Assessment of Community Transmission–1 (REACT-1) study in England. During June and July 2021, we observed sustained exponential growth with an average doubling time of 25 days, driven by complete replacement of the Alpha variant by Delta and by high prevalence at younger, less-vaccinated ages. Prevalence among unvaccinated people [1.21% (95% credible interval 1.03%, 1.41%)] was three times that among double-vaccinated people [0.40% (95% credible interval 0.34%, 0.48%)]. However, after adjusting for age and other variables, vaccine effectiveness for double-vaccinated people was estimated at between ~50% and ~60% during this period in England. Increased social mixing in the presence of Delta had the potential to generate sustained growth in infections, even at high levels of vaccination.

Although recombination is a feature of coronavirus evolution, previously detected recombinant lineages of SARS-CoV-2 have shown limited circulation thus far. Here, we present a detailed phylogenetic analysis of four SARS-CoV-2 lineages to investigate the possibility of virus recombination among them. Our analyses reveal well-supported phylogenetic differences between the Orf1ab region encoding viral non-structural proteins and the rest of the genome, including Spike (S) protein and remaining reading frames. By accounting for several deletions in NSP6, Orf3a, and S, we conclude that the B.1.628 major cluster, now designated as lineage XB, originated from a recombination event between viruses of B.1.631 and B.1.634 lineages. This scenario is supported by the spatiotemporal distribution of these lineages across the USA and Mexico during 2021, suggesting that the recombination event originated in this geographical region. This event raises important questions regarding the role and potential effects of recombination on SARS-CoV-2 evolution.

Population-level comparisons of prokaryotic genomes must take into account the substantial differences in gene content, resulting from frequent horizontal gene transfer, gene duplication and gene loss. However, the automated annotation of prokaryotic genomes is imperfect, and errors due to fragmented assemblies, contamination, diverse gene families and mis-assemblies accumulate over the population, leading to profound consequences when analysing the set of all genes found in a species. Here we introduce Panaroo, a graph based pangenome clustering tool that is able to account for many of the sources of error introduced during the annotation of prokaryotic genome assemblies. We verified our approach through extensive simulations of de novo assemblies using the infinitely many genes model and by analysing a number of publicly available large bacterial genome datasets. Using a highly clonal Mycobacterium tuberculosis dataset as a negative control case, we show that failing to account for annotation errors can lead to pangenome estimates that are dominated by error. We additionally demonstrate the utility of the improved graphical output provided by Panaroo by performing a pan-genome wide association study in Neisseria gonorrhoeae and by analysing gene gain and loss rates across 51 of the major global pneumococcal sequence clusters. Panaroo is freely available under an open source MIT licence at https://github.com/gtonkinhill/panaroo.

Syphilis is an important sexually transmitted infection caused by the bacterium Treponema pallidum subspecies pallidum. The last two decades have seen syphilis incidence rise in many high-income countries, yet the evolutionary and epidemiological relationships that underpin this are poorly understood, as is the global T. pallidum population structure. We assembled a geographically and temporally diverse collection of clinical and laboratory samples comprising 726 T. pallidum genomes. We used detailed phylogenetic analysis and clustering to show that syphilis globally can be described by only two deeply branching lineages, Nichols and SS14. We show that both of these lineages can be found circulating concurrently in 12 of the 23 countries sampled. To provide further phylodynamic resolution we subdivided Treponema pallidum subspecies pallidum into 17 distinct sublineages. Importantly, like SS14, we provide evidence that two Nichols sublineages have expanded clonally across 9 countries contemporaneously with SS14. Moreover, pairwise genome analysis showed that recent isolates circulating in 14 different countries were genetically identical in their core genome to those from other countries, suggesting frequent exchange through international transmission pathways. This contrasts with the majority of samples collected prior to 1983, which are phylogenetically distinct from these more recently isolated sublineages. Bayesian temporal analysis provided evidence of a population bottleneck and decline occurring during the late 1990s, followed by a rapid population expansion a decade later. This was driven by the dominant T. pallidum sublineages circulating today, many of which are resistant to macrolides. Combined we show that the population of contemporary syphilis in high-income countries has undergone a recent and rapid global expansion.

Genomic epidemiology, which links pathogen genomes with associated metadata to understand disease transmission, has become a key component of outbreak response. Decreasing costs of genome sequencing and increasing computational power provide opportunities to generate and analyse large viral genomic datasets that aim to uncover the spatial scales of transmission, the demographics contributing to transmission patterns, and to forecast epidemic trends. Emerging sources of genomic data and associated metadata provide new opportunities to further unravel transmission patterns. Key challenges include how to integrate genomic data with metadata from multiple sources, how to generate efficient computational algorithms to cope with large datasets, and how to establish sampling frameworks to enable robust conclusions.

Significance Animals defend themselves from viral infection using innate immunity proteins that disrupt various stages of the virus life cycle. In response, viruses produce proteins that bind these host factors and compromise their activity, resulting in evolutionary conflict as immunity and virus proteins adapt to prevent and restore binding, respectively. We report that evolutionary conflict involving the host innate immunity protein SAMHD1 has occurred throughout mammalian evolution. We observe adaptation in a region of SAMHD1 that regulates its activity, and we demonstrate how mutations here influence its enzymatic properties, suggesting that evolutionary conflict has involved modulation of SAMHD1 regulation and function. This correlates with reduced restriction of HIV-1, indicating that positive selection has influenced both SAMHD1’s dNTPase and antiviral activities., The vertebrate protein SAMHD1 is highly unusual in having roles in cellular metabolic regulation, antiviral restriction, and regulation of innate immunity. Its deoxynucleoside triphosphohydrolase activity regulates cellular dNTP concentration, reducing levels below those required by lentiviruses and other viruses to replicate. To counter this threat, some primate lentiviruses encode accessory proteins that bind SAMHD1 and induce its degradation; in turn, positive diversifying selection has been observed in regions bound by these lentiviral proteins, suggesting that primate SAMHD1 has coevolved to evade these countermeasures. Moreover, deleterious polymorphisms in human SAMHD1 are associated with autoimmune disease linked to uncontrolled DNA synthesis of endogenous retroelements. Little is known about how evolutionary pressures affect these different SAMHD1 functions. Here, we examine the deeper history of these interactions by testing whether evolutionary signatures in SAMHD1 extend to other mammalian groups and exploring the molecular basis of this coevolution. Using codon-based likelihood models, we find positive selection in SAMHD1 within each mammal lineage for which sequence data are available. We observe positive selection at sites clustered around T592, a residue that is phosphorylated to regulate SAMHD1 activity. We verify experimentally that mutations within this cluster affect catalytic rate and lentiviral restriction, suggesting that virus–host coevolution has required adaptations of enzymatic function. Thus, persistent positive selection may have involved the adaptation of SAMHD1 regulation to balance antiviral, metabolic, and innate immunity functions.

Favipiravir for Chronic Norovirus Infection Norovirus may cause chronic diarrhea, especially in immunosuppressed patients. There is no established treatment. In this case report, favipiravir is sho...

Jump starting pathogen evolution Mycobacteria are mostly environmental saprotrophs, but during human history, some have become our pathogens. In the past 50 years or so, intractable and virulent infections of Mycobacterium abscessus have emerged in people with cystic fibrosis. Bryant et al. investigated how these mycobacteria have evolved into human pathogens so quickly (see the Perspective by Brugha and Spencer). Chronic infections in the lung offer plenty of evolutionary scope for the emergence of virulent clones after horizontal gene transfer and hypermutation. Pathogens are acquired by environmental contamination, which leaves open a window for clinical control because the most virulent clones survive poorly outside the body. Therefore, immediate treatment and enhanced infection-control measures for M. abscessus cases could reduce opportunities for the evolution of direct person-to-person transmission. Science , this issue p. eabb8699 ; see also p. 465

Syphilis is an important sexually transmitted infection caused by the bacterium Treponema pallidum subspecies pallidum. The last two decades have seen syphilis incidence rise in many high-income countries, yet the evolutionary and epidemiological relationships that underpin this are poorly understood, as is the global T. pallidum population structure. We assembled a geographically and temporally diverse collection of clinical and laboratory samples comprising 726 T. pallidum genomes. We used detailed phylogenetic analysis and clustering to show that syphilis globally can be described by only two deeply branching lineages, Nichols and SS14. We show that both of these lineages can be found circulating concurrently in 12 of the 23 countries sampled. To provide further phylodynamic resolution we subdivided Treponema pallidum subspecies pallidum into 17 distinct sublineages. Importantly, like SS14, we provide evidence that two Nichols sublineages have expanded clonally across 9 countries contemporaneously with SS14. Moreover, pairwise genome analysis showed that recent isolates circulating in 14 different countries were genetically identical in their core genome to those from other countries, suggesting frequent exchange through international transmission pathways. This contrasts with the majority of samples collected prior to 1983, which are phylogenetically distinct from these more recently isolated sublineages. Bayesian temporal analysis provided evidence of a population bottleneck and decline occurring during the late 1990s, followed by a rapid population expansion a decade later. This was driven by the dominant T. pallidum sublineages circulating today, many of which are resistant to macrolides. Combined we show that the population of contemporary syphilis in high-income countries has undergone a recent and rapid global expansion.

The ongoing pandemic spread of a new human coronavirus, SARS-CoV-2, which is associated with severe pneumonia/disease (COVID-19), has resulted in the generation of tens of thousands of virus genome sequences. The rate of genome generation is unprecedented, yet there is currently no coherent nor accepted scheme for naming the expanding phylogenetic diversity of SARS-CoV-2. Here, we present a rational and dynamic virus nomenclature that uses a phylogenetic framework to identify those lineages that contribute most to active spread. Our system is made tractable by constraining the number and depth of hierarchical lineage labels and by flagging and delabelling virus lineages that become unobserved and hence are probably inactive. By focusing on active virus lineages and those spreading to new locations, this nomenclature will assist in tracking and understanding the patterns and determinants of the global spread of SARS-CoV-2.

Understanding the causes and consequences of the emergence of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) variants of concern is crucial to pandemic control yet difficult to achieve because they arise in the context of variable human behavior and immunity. We investigated the spatial invasion dynamics of lineage B.1.1.7 by jointly analyzing UK human mobility, virus genomes, and community-based polymerase chain reaction data. We identified a multistage spatial invasion process in which early B.1.1.7 growth rates were associated with mobility and asymmetric lineage export from a dominant source location, enhancing the effects of B.1.1.7's increased intrinsic transmissibility. We further explored how B.1.1.7 spread was shaped by nonpharmaceutical interventions and spatial variation in previous attack rates. Our findings show that careful accounting of the behavioral and epidemiological context within which variants of concern emerge is necessary to interpret correctly their observed relative growth rates. ispartof: SCIENCE vol:373 issue:6557 pages:889-+ ispartof: location:United States status: published

The UK’s COVID-19 epidemic during early 2020 was one of world’s largest and unusually well represented by virus genomic sampling. Here we reveal the fine-scale genetic lineage structure of this epidemic through analysis of 50,887 SARS-CoV-2 genomes, including 26,181 from the UK sampled throughout the country’s first wave of infection. Using large-scale phylogenetic analyses, combined with epidemiological and travel data, we quantify the size, spatio-temporal origins and persistence of genetically-distinct UK transmission lineages. Rapid fluctuations in virus importation rates resulted in >1000 lineages; those introduced prior to national lockdown were larger and more dispersed. Lineage importation and regional lineage diversity declined after lockdown, whilst lineage elimination was size-dependent. We discuss the implications of our genetic perspective on transmission dynamics for COVID-19 epidemiology and control.

The control of re-occurring pandemic pathogens requires understanding the origins of new pandemic variants and the factors that drive their global spread. This is especially important for GII.4 norovirus, where vaccines under development offer promise to prevent hundreds of millions of annual gastroenteritis cases. Previous studies have hypothesized that new GII.4 pandemic viruses arise when previously circulating pandemic or pre-pandemic variants undergo substitutions in antigenic regions that enable evasion of host population immunity, as described by conventional models of antigenic drift. In contrast, we show here that the acquisition of new genetic and antigenic characteristics cannot be the proximal driver of new pandemics. Pandemic GII.4 viruses diversify and spread over wide geographical areas over several years prior to simultaneous pandemic emergence of multiple lineages, indicating that the necessary sequence changes must have occurred before diversification, years prior to pandemic emergence. We confirm this result through serological assays of reconstructed ancestral virus capsids, demonstrating that by 2003, the ancestral 2012 pandemic strain had already acquired the antigenic characteristics that allowed it to evade prevailing population immunity against the previous 2009 pandemic variant. These results provide strong evidence that viral genetic changes are necessary but not sufficient for GII.4 pandemic spread. Instead, we suggest that it is changes in host population immunity that enable pandemic spread of an antigenically preadapted GII.4 variant. These results indicate that predicting future GII.4 pandemic variants will require surveillance of currently unsampled reservoir populations. Furthermore, a broadly acting GII.4 vaccine will be critical to prevent future pandemics.

The ongoing pandemic spread of a novel human coronavirus, SARS-COV-2, associated with severe pneumonia disease (COVID-19), has resulted in the generation of thousands of virus genome sequences The rate of genome generation is unprecedented, yet there is currently no coherent nor accepted scheme for naming the expanding phylogenetic diversity of SARS-CoV-2 We present a rational and dynamic virus nomenclature that uses a phylogenetic framework to identify those lineages that contribute most to active spread Our system is made tractable by constraining the number and depth of hierarchical lineage labels and by flagging and declassifying virus lineages that become unobserved and hence are likely inactive By focusing on active virus lineages and those spreading to new locations this nomenclature will assist in tracking and understanding the patterns and determinants of the global spread of SARS-CoV-2 ### Competing Interest Statement The authors have declared no competing interest

The control of pandemic pathogens depends on early prediction of pandemic variants and, more generally, understanding origins of such variants and factors that drive their global spread. This is especially important for GII.4 norovirus, where vaccines under development offer promise to prevent hundreds of millions of annual gastroenteritis cases. Previous studies have suggested that new GII.4 pandemic viruses evolve from previous pandemic variants through substitutions in the antigenic region of the VP1 protein that enable evasion of host population immunity, leading to global spread. In contrast, we show here that the acquisition of new genetic and antigenic characteristics is not the proximal driver of new pandemics. Instead, pandemic GII.4 viruses circulate undetected for years before causing a new pandemic, during which time they diversify and spread over wide geographical areas. Serological data demonstrate that by 2003, some nine years before it emerged as a new pandemic, the ancestral 2012 pandemic strain had already acquired the antigenic characteristics that allowed it to evade prevailing population immunity against the previous 2009 pandemic variant. These results provide strong evidence that viral genetic changes are necessary but not sufficient for GII.4 pandemic spread. Instead, we suggest that it is changes in host population immunity that enable pandemic spread of an antigenically-preadapted GII.4 variant. These results indicate that predicting future GII.4 pandemic variants will require surveillance of currently unsampled reservoir populations. Furthermore, a broadly acting GII.4 vaccine will be critical to prevent future pandemics.SignificanceNorovirus pandemics and their associated public health and economic costs could be prevented by effective vaccines. However, vaccine development and distribution will require identification of the sources and drivers of new pandemics. We here use phylogenetics and serological experiments to develop and test a new hypothesis of pandemic norovirus emergence. We find that pandemic noroviruses preadapt, diversify and spread worldwide years prior to emergence, strongly indicating that genetic changes are necessary but not sufficient to drive a new pandemic. We instead suggest that changes in population immunity enable pandemic emergence of a pre-adapted low-level variant. These findings indicate that prediction of new pandemics will require surveillance of under-sampled virus reservoirs and that norovirus vaccines will need to elicit broad immunity.

Routine childhood vaccination against measles, mumps and rubella has virtually abolished virus-related morbidity and mortality. Notwithstanding this, we describe here devastating neurological complications associated with the detection of live-attenuated mumps virus Jeryl Lynn (MuVJL5) in the brain of a child who had undergone successful allogeneic transplantation for severe combined immunodeficiency (SCID). This is the first confirmed report of MuVJL5 associated with chronic encephalitis and highlights the need to exclude immunodeficient individuals from immunisation with live-attenuated vaccines. The diagnosis was only possible by deep sequencing of the brain biopsy. Sequence comparison of the vaccine batch to the MuVJL5 isolated from brain identified biased hypermutation, particularly in the matrix gene, similar to those found in measles from cases of SSPE. The findings provide unique insights into the pathogenesis of paramyxovirus brain infections. Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (doi:10.1007/s00401-016-1629-y) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Norovirus full-genome sequencing is challenging due to sequence heterogeneity among genomes. Previous methods have relied on PCR amplification, which is problematic due to primer design, and transcriptome sequencing (RNA-Seq), which nonspecifically sequences all RNA, including host and bacterial RNA, in stool specimens. Target enrichment uses a panel of custom-designed 120-mer RNA baits that are complementary to all publicly available norovirus sequences, with multiple baits targeting each position of the genome, which overcomes the challenge of primer design. Norovirus genomes are enriched from stool RNA extracts to minimize the sequencing of nontarget RNA. SureSelect target enrichment and Illumina sequencing were used to sequence full genomes from 507 norovirus-positive stool samples with reverse transcription–real-time PCR cycle threshold ( C T ) values of 10 to 43. Sequencing on an Illumina MiSeq system in batches of 48 generated, on average, 81% on-target reads per sample and 100% genome coverage with >12,000-fold read depth. Samples included genotypes GI.1, GI.2, GI.3, GI.6, GI.7, GII.1, GII.2, GII.3, GII.4, GII.5, GII.6, GII.7, GII.13, GII.14, and GII.17. When outliers were accounted for, we generated >80% genome coverage for all positive samples, regardless of C T values. A total of 164 samples were tested in parallel with conventional PCR genotyping of the capsid shell domain; 164/164 samples were successfully sequenced, compared to 158/164 samples that were amplified by PCR. Four of the samples that failed capsid PCR analysis had low titers, which suggests that target enrichment is more sensitive than gel-based PCR. Two samples failed PCR due to primer mismatches; target enrichment uses multiple baits targeting each position, thus accommodating sequence heterogeneity among norovirus genomes.