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Natural gas is considered a bridging technology in the energy transition because it produces fewer carbon emissions than coal, for example. However, when leaks exist, methane is released into the atmosphere, leading to a dramatic increase in the carbon footprint of natural gas, as methane is a much stronger greenhouse gas than carbon dioxide. Therefore, we conducted a detailed study of methane emissions from gas-powered end-use appliances and then compared their climate impacts with those of electricity-powered appliances. We used the Munich Oktoberfest as a case study and then extended the study to 25 major natural gas consuming countries. This showed that electricity has been the more climate-friendly energy source at Oktoberfest since 2005, due to the extensive use of renewable electricity at the festival and the presence of methane emissions, particularly caused by the incomplete combustion of natural gas in cooking and heating appliances. By contrast, at the global level, our study shows that natural gas still produces lower end-use carbon emissions than electricity in 18 of the 25 countries studied. However, as the share of renewable energy in the electricity mix steadily increases in most countries, the carbon footprint of electricity will be lower than that of natural gas in these countries in the near future. These findings from our comparison of the total carbon emissions of electric and gas-powered end-use appliances can help inform the debate on how to effectively address climate change., Earth's Future, 11 (2), ISSN:2328-4277

Communities in the Pamir Mountains of Central Asia are among the most vulnerable to climate change due to their geographic location and subsistence-based livelihoods. Historically, ecological calendars supported their agropastoral lifestyles which provided anticipatory capacity to seasonal changes. Due to decades of Soviet colonization and socioecological transformations, knowledge of these ecological calendars fell into disuse. In 2016, Savnob and Roshorv, two villages in the Bartang Valley of Tajikistan, began the revitalization of these calendars using a participatory action research process through knowledge co-generation. We undertook a comparative analysis to investigate the importance of context-specificity to ensure food security and reduce their vulnerability to climate change. A preliminary analysis of the temperature regime and local language terms, relating to the positioning and quality of land, framed our methods-of-analysis. We compared the villagers' ecological calendars by focusing on indicator species, potentially threatening weather events, land-use, livelihood activities, and the role of the vernal equinox. Despite their close geographic proximity, context-specificity determined by distinct microecologies influences the timing and practice of these communities' livelihood activities. These villages have different dependencies on biotic and abiotic events, crops, and land-use; all of which affect food security and survival. These differences contributed to mutual support between the two villages, increased the availability of food, and thereby, lowered their vulnerability to climate change. As Savnob's and Roshorv's ecological calendars are updated with changing climate, they can once again enhance their anticipatory capacity while reducing their vulnerability.

Burial driven recycling is an important process in the natural gas hydrate (GH) systems worldwide, characterized by complex multiphysics interactions like gas migration through an evolving gas hydrate stability zone (GHSZ), competing gas-water-hydrate (i.e., fluid-fluid-solid) phase transitions, locally appearing and disappearing phases, and evolving sediment properties (e.g., permeability, reaction surface area, and capillary entry pressure). Such a recycling process is typically studied in homogeneous or layered sediments. However, there is mounting evidence that structural heterogeneity and anisotropy linked to normal and inclined fault systems or anomalous sediment layers have a strong impact on the GH dynamics. Here, we consider the impacts of such a structurally complex media on the recycling process. To capture the properties of the anomalous layers accurately, we introduce a fully mass conservative, high-order, discontinuous Galerkin (DG) finite element based numerical scheme. Moreover, to handle the rapidly switching thermodynamic phase states robustly, we cast the problem of phase transitions as a set of variational inequalities, and combine our DG discretization scheme with a semi-smooth Newton solver. Here, we present our new simulator, and demonstrate using synthetic geological scenarios, (a) how the presence of an anomalous high-permeability layer, like a fracture or brecciated sediment, can alter the recycling process through flow-localization, and more importantly, (b) how an incorrect or incomplete approximation of the properties of such a layer can lead to large errors in the overall prediction of the recycling process. Key Points Structural heterogeneity linked to inclined fault systems or anomalous sediment layers have a strong impact on the gas hydrate dynamics The presence of anomalous high-permeability layers within gas hydrate stability zone alters the recycling process through flow-localization The presented discontinuous Galerkin scheme is able to accurately capture the gas hydrate recycling processes through strongly anisotropic materials

Management of hydropower plants strongly influences streamflow dynamics and hence the interaction between surface water and groundwater. As dam operations cause variations in river stages, these can result in changes in the groundwater level at multiple temporal scales. In this work, we study the case of an Alpine aquifer, where weekly fluctuations are particularly pronounced. We consider an area with four river reaches differently impacted by reservoir operations and investigate the influence of these rivers on the common aquifer. Using continuous wavelet transform and wavelet coherence analysis, we show that weekly fluctuations in the groundwater table are particularly pronounced in dry years, in particular in the winter season, although the area of the aquifer impacted by dam operations remains almost unchanged. We thus observe that in Alpine catchments, surface water‐groundwater interaction is sensitive to the conditions determined by a specific hydrological year. We also investigate the influences of the river‐aquifer water fluxes and show that under dry conditions hydropeaking mainly affects their temporal dynamics. Our observations have significant consequences for predicting nutrient and temperature dynamics/regimes in river‐aquifer systems impacted by hydropower plant management., Plain Language Summary: The operation of hydropower plants affects the water level in the downstream part of the river, which in turn can alter the groundwater level. In this work, we study an Alpine aquifer crossed by rivers differently impacted by hydropower production. We use statistical tools to analyze the interaction between the rivers and the groundwater, and observe that this interaction is sensitive to the conditions of the hydrological year, such as dry periods., Key Points: Wavelet power spectrum and coherence analysis is used to study river‐aquifer interactions under dam operations in an Alpine catchment. The impact of reservoir operations on the aquifer is strongest under low flow conditions but the area impacted shows little variation. Under low flow conditions, dam operations considerably influence the frequency of the water exchange between rivers and aquifer., Consejo Nacional de Ciencia y Tecnología http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100003141, Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100001659, Consejo Veracruzano de Investigación Científica y Desarrollo Tecnológico, https://doi.org/10.17632/97jchhz4s8.2

Forests mitigate climate change by storing carbon and reducing emissions via substitution effects of wood products. Additionally, they provide many other important ecosystem services (ESs), but are vulnerable to climate change; therefore, adaptation is necessary. Climate‐smart forestry combines mitigation with adaptation, whilst facilitating the provision of many ESs. This is particularly challenging due to large uncertainties about future climate. Here, we combined ecosystem modeling with robust multi‐criteria optimization to assess how the provision of various ESs (climate change mitigation, timber provision, local cooling, water availability, and biodiversity habitat) can be guaranteed under a broad range of climate futures across Europe. Our optimized portfolios contain 29% unmanaged forests, and implicate a successive conversion of 34% of coniferous to broad‐leaved forests (11% vice versa). Coppices practically vanish from Southern Europe, mainly due to their high water requirement. We find the high shares of unmanaged forests necessary to keep European forests a carbon sink while broad‐leaved and unmanaged forests contribute to local cooling through biogeophysical effects. Unmanaged forests also pose the largest benefit for biodiversity habitat. However, the increased shares of unmanaged and broad‐leaved forests lead to reductions in harvests. This raises the question of how to meet increasing wood demands without transferring ecological impacts elsewhere or enhancing the dependence on more carbon‐intensive industries. Furthermore, the mitigation potential of forests depends on assumptions about the decarbonization of other industries and is consequently crucially dependent on the emission scenario. Our findings highlight that trade‐offs must be assessed when developing concrete strategies for climate‐smart forestry., Plain Language Summary: Forests help mitigate climate change by storing carbon and via avoided emissions when wood products replace more carbon‐intensive materials. At the same time, forests provide many other “ecosystem services (ESs)” to society. For example, they provide timber, habitat for various species, and they cool their surrounding regions. They are, however, also vulnerable to ongoing climate change. Forest management must consider all these aspects, which is particularly challenging considering the uncertainty about future climate. Here, we propose how this may be tackled by computing optimized forest management portfolios for Europe for a broad range of future climate pathways. Our results show that changes to forest composition are necessary. In particular, increased shares of unmanaged and broad‐leaved forests are beneficial for numerous ESs. However, these increased shares also lead to decreases in harvest rates, posing a conflict between wood supply and demand. We further show that the mitigation potential of forests strongly depends on how carbon‐intensive the replaced materials are. Consequently, should these materials become “greener” due to new technologies, the importance of wood products in terms of climate change mitigation decreases. Our study highlights that we cannot optimize every aspect, but that trade‐offs between ESs need to be made., Key Points: Strategies for climate‐smart forestry under a range of climate scenarios always lead to trade‐offs between different ecosystem services (ESs). Higher shares of unmanaged and broad‐leaved forests are beneficial for numerous ESs, but lead to decreased timber provision. The mitigation potential of forests strongly relies on substitution effects which depend on the carbon‐intensity of the alternative products., European Forest Institute (EFI) Networking Fund http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100013942, Bayerisches Staatsministerium für Wissenschaft und Kunst, Bayerisches Netzwerk für Klimaforschung (BayKliF) http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100004563, Swedish Research Council Formas, German Federal Office for Agriculture and Food (BLE), https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.6667489, https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.6612953

Detailed imaging of accretionary wedges reveals splay fault networks that could pose a significant tsunami hazard. However, the dynamics of multiple splay fault activation during megathrust earthquakes and the consequent effects on tsunami generation are not well understood. We use a 2‐D dynamic rupture model with complex topo‐bathymetry and six curved splay fault geometries constrained from realistic tectonic loading modeled by a geodynamic seismic cycle model with consistent initial stress and strength conditions. We find that all splay faults rupture coseismically. While the largest splay fault slips due to a complex rupture branching process from the megathrust, all other splay faults are activated either top down or bottom up by dynamic stress transfer induced by trapped seismic waves. We ascribe these differences to local non‐optimal fault orientations and variable along‐dip strength excess. Generally, rupture on splay faults is facilitated by their favorable stress orientations and low strength excess as a result of high pore‐fluid pressures. The ensuing tsunami modeled with non‐linear 1‐D shallow water equations consists of one high‐amplitude crest related to rupture on the longest splay fault and a second broader wave packet resulting from slip on the other faults. This results in two episodes of flooding and a larger run‐up distance than the single long‐wavelength (300 km) tsunami sourced by the megathrust‐only rupture. Since splay fault activation is determined by both variable stress and strength conditions and dynamic activation, considering both tectonic and earthquake processes is relevant for understanding tsunamigenesis., Plain Language Summary: In subduction zones, where one tectonic plate moves beneath another, earthquakes can occur on many different faults. Splay faults are relatively steep faults that branch off the largest fault (the megathrust) in a subduction zone. As they are steeper than the megathrust, the same amount of movement on them could result in more vertical displacement of the seafloor. Therefore, splay faults are thought to play an important role in the generation of tsunamis. Here, we use computer simulations to study if an earthquake can break multiple splay faults at once and how this affects the resulting tsunami. We find that multiple splay faults can indeed fail during a single earthquake due to the stress changes from trapped seismic waves, which promote rupture on splay faults. Rupture on splay faults results in larger seafloor displacements with smaller wavelengths, so the ensuing tsunami is bigger and results in two main flooding episodes at the coast. Our results show that it is important to consider rupture on splay faults when assessing tsunami hazard., Key Points: Multiple splay faults can be activated during a single earthquake by megathrust slip and dynamic stress transfer due to trapped waves. Splay fault activation is facilitated by their favorable orientation with respect to the local stress field and their closeness to failure. Long‐term geodynamic stresses and fault geometries affect dynamic splay fault rupture and the subsequent tsunami., Volkswagen Foundation (VolkswagenStiftung) http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100001663, Royal Society (The Royal Society) http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100000288, EC | H2020 | H2020 Priority Excellent Science | H2020 European Research Council (ERC) http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/100010663, Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (DFG) http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100001659, National Science Foundation (NSF) http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/100000001, https://github.com/TUM-I5/SWE, https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.6969455

Acute exacerbation of chronic obstruction pulmonary disease (AECOPD) as a respiratory disease, is considered to be related to air pollution by more and more studies. However, the evidence on how air pollution affect the incidence of AECOPD and whether there are population differences is still insufficient. Therefore, we select PM10, PM2.5, SO2, NO2, CO, and O3 as representatives combined with daily AECOPD admission data from 1 January 2015 to 26 June 2016 in the rural areas of Qingyang, northwestern China to explore the associations of air pollution with AECOPD. Based on a time‐stratified case‐crossover design, we constructed a distributed lag nonlinear model to qualify the single and cumulative lagged effects of air pollution on AECOPD. Stratified related risks by sex and age were also reported. The cumulative exposure‐response curves were approximately linear for PM2.5, “V”‐shaped for PM10, “U”‐shaped for NO2 and inverted‐“V” for SO2, CO and O3. Exposure to high‐PM2.5 (42 μg/m3), high‐PM10 (91 μg/m3), high‐SO2 (58 μg/m3), low‐NO2 (12 μg/m3), and high‐CO (1.55 mg/m3) increased the risk of AECOPD. Females aged 15–64 were more susceptible under extreme concentrations of PM2.5, SO2, CO, and low‐PM10 than other subgroups. In addition, adults aged 15–64 were more sensitive to extreme concentrations of NO2 compared with the elderly ≥65 years old, while the latter were more sensitive to high‐PM10. High‐SO2, high‐NO2, and extreme concentrations of PM2.5 had the greatest effects on the day of exposure, while low‐SO2 and low‐CO had lagged effects on AECOPD. Precautionary measures should be taken with a focus on vulnerable subgroups, to control hospitalization for AECOPD associated with air pollutants., Key Points Exposure to high‐PM2.5, high‐PM10, high‐SO2, low‐NO2, and high‐CO increased the risk of acute exacerbation of chronic obstruction pulmonary disease (COPD)The cumulative curves were approximately linear for PM2.5, “V”‐shaped for PM10, “U”‐shaped for NO2 and inverted‐”V” for SO2, CO and O3 The nonlinear effects on acute exacerbation of COPD at different lags varied based on the air pollutants, involved gender and age

Nitrous oxide (N2O) is a powerful greenhouse gas, and oceanic sources account for up to one third of total flux to the atmosphere. In oxygen-deficient zones (ODZs) like the Eastern Tropical North Pacific (ETNP), N2O can be produced and consumed by several biological processes. In this study, the concentration and isotopocule ratios of N2O from a 2016 cruise to the ETNP were analyzed to examine the sources of and controls on N2O cycling across the region. Along the ~1000 km north-south transect, three distinct biogeochemical regimes were identified: background, core-ODZ, and high-N2O stations. Background stations were characterized by smaller variations in N2O concentration and isotopic profiles relative to the other regimes. Core-ODZ stations were characterized by co-occurring N2O production and consumption at anoxic depths, indicated by high δ18O-N2O (> 90‰) and low δ15N2Oβ (< -10‰) values, and confirmed by a time-dependent model, which indicated that N2O production via denitrification was significant and may occur with a non-zero site preference. High-N2O stations, located at the periphery of a mesoscale eddy, were defined by [N2O] reaching 126.07±12.6 nM and low oxygen concentrations expanding into near-surface isopycnals. At these stations, model results indicated significant N2O production from ammonia-oxidizing archaea and denitrification from nitrate at the N2O maximum within the oxycline, while bacterial nitrification and denitrification from nitrite were insignificant. This study also represents the first in the ETNP to link the magnitudes of N2O production mechanisms to a mesoscale eddy through isotopocule measurements, suggesting the importance of eddies to the spatiotemporal variability in N2O cycling and emissions from this region.

Accelerated urbanization increases both the frequency and intensity of heatwaves (HW) and urban heat islands (UHIs). An extreme HW event occurred in 2012 summer that caused temperatures of more than 40°C in Chicago, Illinois, USA, which is a highly urbanized city impacted by UHIs. In this study, multiple numerical models, including the High Resolution Land Data Assimilation System (HRLDAS) and Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, were used to simulate the HW and UHI, and their performance was evaluated. In addition, sensitivity testing of three different WRF configurations was done to determine the impact of increasing model complexity in simulating urban meteorology. Model performances were evaluated based on the statistical performance metrics, the application of a multi‐layer urban canopy model (MLUCM) helps WRF to provide the best performance in this study. HW caused rural temperatures to increase by ∼4°C, whereas urban Chicago had lower magnitude increases from the HW (∼2–3°C increases). Nighttime UHI intensity (UHII) ranged from 1.44 to 2.83°C during the study period. Spatiotemporal temperature fields were used to estimate the potential heat‐related exposure and to quantify the Excessive Heat Factor (EHF). The EHF during the HW episode provides a risk map indicating that while urban Chicago had higher heat‐related stress during this event, the rural area also had high risk, especially during nighttime in central Illinois. This study provides a reliable method to estimate spatiotemporal exposures for future studies of heat‐related health impacts., Key Points Extreme heatwave induced ∼4°C increase in temperature in rural Chicago while increased urban temperature by 2–3°CUrban heat island intensity is estimated to be around 1.44–2.38°CExcessive Heat Factor is higher than 50°C2 in urban Chicago due to heatwave

Recurrent and large forest fires negatively impact ecosystem, air quality, and human health. Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer fire product is used to identify forest fires over central India domain, an extremely fire prone region. The study finds that from 2001 to 2020, ∼70% of yearly forest fires over the region occurred during March (1,857.5 counts/month) and April (922.8 counts/month). Some years such as 2009, 2012, and 2017 show anomalously high forest fires. The role of persistent warmer temperatures and multiple climate extremes in increasing forest fire activity over central India is comprehensively investigated. Warmer period from 2006 to 2020 showed doubling and tripling of forest fire activity during forest fire (February–June; FMAMJ) and non‐fire (July–January; JASONDJ) seasons, respectively. From 2015 JASONDJ to 2018 FMAMJ, central India experienced a severe heatwave, a rare drought and an extremely strong El Niño, the combined effect of which is linked to increased forest fires. Further, the study assesses quinquennial spatiotemporal changes in forest fire characteristics such as fire count density and average fire intensity. Deciduous forests of Jagdalpur‐Gadchiroli Range and Indravati National Park in Chhattisgarh state are particularly fire prone (>61 fire counts/grid) during FMAMJ and many forest fires are of high intensity (>45 MW). Statistical associations link high near surface air temperature and low precipitation during FMAMJ to significantly high soil temperature, low soil moisture content, low evapotranspiration and low normalized difference vegetation index. This creates a significantly drier environment, conducive for high forest fire activity in the region., Key Points Compared to 2001–2005, central India domain forest fire activity during 2006–2020 doubled in forest fire season and tripled in non‐fire seasonRole of persistent warmer temperatures and multiple climate extremes in increasing forest fire activity over central India is highlightedDeciduous forests of Jagdalpur‐Gadchiroli Range and Indravati National Park are extremely fire prone and fires are of high intensity

We assess the detectability of COVID‐like emissions reductions in global atmospheric CO2 concentrations using a suite of large ensembles conducted with an Earth system model. We find a unique fingerprint of COVID in the simulated growth rate of CO2 sampled at the locations of surface measurement sites. Negative anomalies in growth rates persist from January 2020 through December 2021, reaching a maximum in February 2021. However, this fingerprint is not formally detectable unless we force the model with unrealistically large emissions reductions (2 or 4 times the observed reductions). Internal variability and carbon‐concentration feedbacks obscure the detectability of short‐term emission reductions in atmospheric CO2. COVID‐driven changes in the simulated, column‐averaged dry air mole fractions of CO2 are eclipsed by large internal variability. Carbon‐concentration feedbacks begin to operate almost immediately after the emissions reduction; these feedbacks reduce the emissions‐driven signal in the atmosphere carbon reservoir and further confound signal detection., Key Points Climate model simulations suggest a lagged response in the global growth rate of atmospheric CO2 due to COVID‐19 emissions reductionsDetection of this reduction in observations is hampered by internal variability combined with reduced ocean and land uptake of CO2 Our results foreshadow the challenges of detecting the effects of CO2 mitigation efforts to meet the Paris climate agreement

The PM2.5 exposure risk assessment is the foundation to reduce its adverse effects. Population survey‐related data have been deficient in high spatiotemporal detailed descriptions. Social media data can quantify the PM2.5 exposure risk at high spatiotemporal resolutions. However, due to the no‐sample characteristics of social media data, PM2.5 exposure risk for older adults is absent. We proposed combining social media data and population survey‐derived data to map the total PM2.5 exposure risk. Hourly exceedance PM2.5 exposure risk indicators based on population modeling (HEPEpmd) and social media data (HEPEsm) were developed. Daily accumulative HEPEsm and HEPEpsd ranged from 0 to 0.009 and 0 to 0.026, respectively. Three peaks of HEPEsm and HEPEpsd were observed at 13:00, 18:00, and 22:00. The peak value of HEPEsm increased with time, which exhibited a reverse trend to HEPEpsd. The spatial center of HEPEsm moved from the northwest of the study area to the center. The spatial center of HEPEpsd moved from the northwest of the study area to the southwest of the study area. The expansion area of HEPEsm was nearly 1.5 times larger than that of HEPEpsd. The expansion areas of HEPEpsd aggregated in the old downtown, in which the contribution of HEPEpsd was greater than 90%. Thus, this study introduced various source data to build an easier and reliable method to map total exceedance PM2.5 exposure risk. Consequently, exposure risk results provided foundations to develop PM2.5 pollution mitigation strategies as well as scientific supports for sustainability and eco‐health achievement., Key Points Total exceedance PM2.5 exposure risk, including youths and older adults, was mappedThe hourly exceedance PM2.5 exposure risk (HEPE)psd was more aggregated than the HEPEsm Contribution of HEPEpsd varied geographically with percentage more than 50%

The concept of resilience is multi‐faceted. This commentary builds upon the analytical distinctions of resilience provided by Urquiza et al. (2021, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020EF001508). In response to this article, we emphasize several distinctions between resilience and other systems concepts. These include distinctions between resilience, risk, and vulnerability, the tradeoff between resilience and efficiency, resilience contrasted with robustness, the relationship between resilience and sustainability, and finally methods for building resilience‐by‐design or resilience‐by‐intervention. Improving understanding of these concepts will enable planners to select resilience strategies that best support their system goals. We use examples from the 2020–2021 coronavirus pandemic to illustrate the concepts and the juxtapositions between them., Key Points Resilience is one of many properties of systems affected by threat and resilience differ from robustness, sustainability, and riskBuilding resilience will require tradeoff on efficiency in complex systemsResilience can be build by design and by intervention

The high computational cost of Global Climate Models (GCMs) is a problem that limits their use in many areas. Recently an inverse climate modeling (InvCM) method, which fixes the global mean sea surface temperature (SST) and evolves the CO2 mixing ratio to equilibrate climate, has been implemented in a cloud‐resolving model. In this article, we apply InvCM to ExoCAM GCM aquaplanet simulations, allowing the SST pattern to evolve while maintaining a fixed global‐mean SST. We find that InvCM produces the same climate as normal slab‐ocean simulations but converges an order of magnitude faster. We then use InvCM to calculate the equilibrium CO2 for SSTs ranging from 290 to 340 K at 1 K intervals and reproduce the large increase in climate sensitivity at an SST of about 315 K at much higher temperature resolution. The speedup provided by InvCM could be used to equilibrate GCMs at higher spatial resolution or to perform broader parameter space exploration in order to gain new insight into the climate system. Additionally, InvCM could be used to find unstable and hidden climate states, and to find climate states close to bifurcations such as the runaway greenhouse transition., Key Points We converge a GCM by varying the CO2 while keeping the global‐mean surface temperature fixed (the inverse climate modeling method)Inverse climate modeling converges about 10 times faster than normal slab‐ocean simulationsThe SST gradient response timescale is the bottleneck on the convergence rate of inverse climate modeling

Following extreme drought during the 2019–2020 bushfire summer, the eastern part of Australia suffered from a week‐long intense rainfall and extensive flooding in March 2021. Understanding how much water storage changes in response to these climate extremes is critical for developing timely water management strategies. To quantify prompt water storage changes associated with the 2021 March flooding, we processed the low‐latency (1–3 days), high‐precision intersatellite laser ranging measurements from GRACE Follow‐On spacecraft and determined instantaneous gravity changes along spacecraft orbital passes. Such new data processing detected an abrupt surge of water storage approaching 60–70 trillion liters (km3 of water) over a week in the region, which concurrently caused land subsidence of ∼5 mm measured by a network of ground GPS stations. This was the highest speed of ground water recharge ever recorded in the region over the last two decades. Compared to the condition in February 2020, the amount of recharged water was similar but the recharge speed was much faster in March 2021. While these two events together replenished the region up to ∼80% of the maximum storage over the last two decades, the wet antecedent condition of soils in 2021 was distinctly different from the dry conditions in 2020 and led to generating extensive runoff and flooding in 2021., Key Points New GRACE Follow‐On gravity data processing quantified prompt changes in water storage by the heavy rainfall and flooding in March 2021The eastern Australia experienced the highest speed of ground water recharge and wet antecedent soils were responsible for extensive flooding in 2021The study demonstrated the feasibility of rapid processing (1–3 days) for immediate assessment of mass changes from extreme events

Global monitoring of seasonal snow water equivalent (SWE) has advanced significantly over the past decades. However, challenges remain when estimating SWE from passive and active microwave signatures, because a priori characterization of snow properties is required for SWE retrievals. Numerical experiments have shown that utilizing physical snow models to acquire snowpack characterization can potentially improve microwave‐based SWE retrievals. This study aims to identify the challenges of assimilating active and passive microwave signatures with physical snow models, and to examine solutions to those challenges. Guided by observations from a point‐based study, we designed a sensitivity experiment to quantify the effects of changes in the physically modeled SWE—and of corresponding changes to other snowpack properties—to the microwave‐based SWE retrievals. The results indicate that assimilating microwave signatures with physical snow models face some critical challenges associated with the physical relationship between SWE and snow microstructure. We demonstrate these challenges can be overcome if the microwave algorithms account for these relationships., Key Points Simulated snow properties from SnowModel are used in microwave‐based snow water equivalent (SWE) retrievals by MEMLS3&aBiases in physically modeled SWE can induce larger biases in microwave‐based SWE retrievalsThe challenges can be mitigated when microwave algorithms account for the physical relationship of snow properties

We present a data‐driven approach to clustering or grouping Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) stations according to observed velocities, displacements or other selected characteristics. Clustering GNSS stations provides useful scientific information, and is a necessary initial step in other analysis, such as detecting aseismic transient signals (Granat et al., 2013, https://doi.org/10.1785/0220130039). Desired features of the data can be selected for clustering, including some subset of displacement or velocity components, uncertainty estimates, station location, and other relevant information. Based on those selections, the clustering procedure autonomously groups the GNSS stations according to a selected clustering method. We have implemented this approach as a Python application, allowing us to draw upon the full range of open source clustering methods available in Python's scikit‐learn package (Pedregosa et al., 2011, https://doi.org/10.5555/1953048.2078195). The application returns the stations labeled by group as a table and color coded KML file and is designed to work with the GNSS information available from GeoGateway (Donnellan et al., 2021, https://doi.org/10.1007/s12145-020-00561-7; Heflin et al., 2020, https://doi.org/10.1029/2019ea000644) but is easily extensible. We demonstrate the methodology on California and western Nevada. The results show partitions that follow faults or geologic boundaries, including for recent large earthquakes and post‐seismic motion. The San Andreas fault system is most prominent, reflecting Pacific‐North American plate boundary motion. Deformation reflected as class boundaries is distributed north and south of the central California creeping section. For most models a cluster boundary connects the southernmost San Andreas fault with the Eastern California Shear Zone (ECSZ) rather than continuing through the San Gorgonio Pass., Key Points Unsupervised clustering methods provide a data‐driven way of analyzing and partitioning Global Navigation Satellite System observations of crustal deformationDeformation is distributed across the San Andreas fault system but is localized at the creeping section in central CaliforniaThe Southern San Andreas fault connects with the Eastern California Shear Zone rather than the rest of the San Andreas fault system

25 pags., 14 figs., 2 tabs., Tropospheric ozone ((Formula presented.)) is an important greenhouse gas and a surface pollutant. The future evolution of (Formula presented.) abundances and chemical processing are uncertain due to a changing climate, socioeconomic developments, and missing chemistry in global models. Here, we use an Earth System Model with natural halogen chemistry to investigate the changes in the (Formula presented.) budget over the 21st century following Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP)6.0 and RCP8.5 climate scenarios. Our results indicate that the global tropospheric (Formula presented.) net chemical change (NCC, chemical gross production minus destruction) will decrease (Formula presented.), notwithstanding increasing or decreasing trends in ozone production and loss. However, a wide range of surface NCC variations (from −60 (Formula presented.) to 150 (Formula presented.)) are projected over polluted regions with stringent abatements in (Formula presented.) precursor emissions. Water vapor and iodine are found to be key drivers of future tropospheric (Formula presented.) destruction, while the largest changes in (Formula presented.) production are determined by the future evolution of peroxy radicals. We show that natural halogens, currently not considered in climate models, significantly impact on the present-day and future global (Formula presented.) burden reducing (Formula presented.) 30–35 Tg (11–15 (Formula presented.)) of tropospheric ozone throughout the 21st century regardless of the RCP scenario considered. This highlights the importance of including natural halogen chemistry in climate model projections of future tropospheric ozone., EC, H2020, H2020 Priority Excellent Science, H2020 European Research Council (ERC). Grant Number: ERC-2016-COG726349; NSF, Office of Science of the US Department of Energy, PICT-2016-0714 (ANPCyT) i-COOP-B20331 (CSIC + CONICET)

As droughts have widespread social and ecological impacts, it is critical to develop long‐term adaptation and mitigation strategies to reduce drought vulnerability. Climate models are important in quantifying drought changes. Here, we assess the ability of 285 CMIP6 historical simulations, from 17 models, to reproduce drought duration and severity in three observational data sets using the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI). We used summary statistics beyond the mean and standard deviation, and devised a novel probabilistic framework, based on the Hellinger distance, to quantify the difference between observed and simulated drought characteristics. Results show that many simulations have less than ±10% error in reproducing the observed drought summary statistics. The hypothesis that simulations and observations are described by the same distribution cannot be rejected for more than 80% of the grids based on our H distance framework. No single model stood out as demonstrating consistently better performance over large regions of the globe. The variance in drought statistics among the simulations is higher in the tropics compared to other latitudinal zones. Though the models capture the characteristics of dry spells well, there is considerable bias in low precipitation values. Good model performance in terms of SPI does not imply good performance in simulating low precipitation. Our study emphasizes the need to probabilistically evaluate climate model simulations in order to both pinpoint model weaknesses and identify a subset of best‐performing models that are useful for impact assessments., Key Points Simulations reproduce observed drought duration and severity in terms of the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) but simulated low precipitation is considerably biasedVariance in drought statistics among the simulations is higher in the tropics compared to other latitudinal zonesGood model performance in terms of SPI does not imply that low precipitation values are well simulated by the climate models

The lightning data products generated by the low‐frequency (LF) radio lightning locating system (LLS) deployed during the Remote sensing of Electrification, Lightning, and Mesoscale/Microscale Processes with Adaptive Ground Observation (RELAMPAGO) field campaign in Argentina provide a valuable data set to research the lightning evolution and characteristics of convective storms that produce high‐impact weather. LF LLS data sets offer a practical range for mesoscale studies, allowing for the observation of lightning characteristics of storms such as mesoscale convective systems or large convective lines that travel longer distances which are not necessarily staying in range of regional VHF‐based lightning detection systems throughout their lifetime. LF LLSs also provide different information than optical space‐borne lightning detectors. Lightning measurements exclusive to LF systems include discharge peak current, lightning polarity, and lightning type classification based on the lightning‐emitted radio waveform. Furthermore, these measurements can provide additional information on flash rates (e.g., positive cloud‐to‐ground flash rate) or narrow bipolar events which may often be associated with dynamically intense convection. In this article, the geolocation and data processing of the LF data set collected during RELAMPAGO is fully described and its performance characterized, with location accuracy better than 10 km. The detection efficiency (DE) of the data set is compared to that of the Geostationary Lightning Mapper, and spatiotemporal DE losses in the LF data set are discussed. Storm case studies on November 10, 2018, highlight the strengths of the data set, which include robust flash clustering and insightful flash rate and peak current measures, while illustrating how its limitations, including DE losses, can be managed., Key Points Geolocation and processing of the low‐frequency (LF) data set collected during the Remote sensing of Electrification, Lightning, and Mesoscale/Microscale Processes with Adaptive Ground Observation campaign is fully described and characterizedUnique LF observations include discharge peak current, polarity, and possibly type classification based on the emitted radio waveformLF spatiotemporal detection efficiency and storm case studies are discussed and compared to Geostationary Lightning Mapper data

Spatial estimates of crop evapotranspiration with high accuracy from the field to watershed scale have become increasingly important for water management, particularly over irrigated agriculture in semiarid regions. Here, we provide a comprehensive assessment on patterns of annual agricultural water use over California's Central Valley, using 30‐m daily evapotranspiration estimates based on Landsat satellite data. A semiempirical Priestley‐Taylor approach was locally optimized and cross‐validated with available field measurements for major crops including alfalfa, almond, citrus, corn, pasture, and rice. The evapotranspiration estimates explained >70% variance in daily measurements from independent sites with an RMSE of 0.88 mm day−1. When aggregated over the Valley, we estimated an average evapotranspiration of 820 ± 290 mm yr−1 in 2014. Agricultural water use varied significantly across and within crop types, with a coefficient of variation ranging from 8% for Rice (1,110 ± 85 mm yr−1) to 59% for Pistachio (592 ± 352 mm yr−1). Total water uses in 2016 increased by 9.6%, as compared to 2014, mostly because of land‐use conversion from fallow/idle land to cropland. Analysis across 134 Groundwater Sustainability Agencies (GSAs) further showed a large variation of agricultural evapotranspiration among and within GSAs, especially for tree crops, e.g., almond evapotranspiration ranging from 339 ± 80 mm yr−1 in Tracy to 1,240 ± 136 mm yr−1 in Tri‐County Water Authority. Continuous monitoring and assessment of the dynamics and spatial heterogeneity of agricultural evapotranspiration provide data‐driven guidance for more effective land use and water planning across scales., Key Points A 30‐m daily evapotranspiration product estimated using regionally optimized approach and Landsat Analysis Ready Data Collection 1Assessment of agricultural consumptive water use over Central Valley provides critical guidance for sustainable groundwater managementLarge variation of water use was found, mostly due to crop diversity, age structure, and physiological factors

In 2020, people's health suffered a great crisis under the dual effects of the COVID‐19 pandemic and the extensive, severe wildfires in the western and central United States. Parks, including city, national, and cultural parks, offer a unique opportunity for people to maintain their recreation behaviors following the social distancing protocols during the pandemic. However, massive forest wildfires in western and central US, producing harmful toxic gases and smoke, pose significant threats to human health and affect their recreation behaviors and mobility to parks. In this study, we employed the geographically and temporally weighted regression (GTWR) Models to investigate how COVID‐19 and wildfires jointly shaped human mobility to parks, regarding the number of visits per capita, dwell time, and travel distance to parks, during June ‐ September 2020. We detected strong correlations between visitations and COVID‐19 incidence in southern Montana, western Wyoming, Colorado, and Utah before August. However, the pattern was weakened over time, indicating the decreasing trend of the degree of concern regarding the pandemic. Moreover, more park visits and lower dwell time were found in parks further away from wildfires and less air pollution in Washington, Oregon, California, Colorado, and New Mexico, during the wildfire season, suggesting the potential avoidance of wildfires when visiting parks. This study provides important insights on people's responses in recreation and social behaviors when facing multiple severe crises that impact their health and wellbeing, which could support the preparation and mitigation of the health impacts from future pandemics and natural hazards., Key Points We investigated human mobility patterns to parks under COVID‐19 pandemic and wildfire season in western and central United StatesWe found a general trend of avoidance to the parks with fewer visits and dwell time in the places with high COVID‐19 casesWith special demand of physical activities in pandemic, people travel further and spend longer time at the parks away from the wildfires

Ice shelf fracture is responsible for roughly half of Antarctic ice mass loss in the form of calving and can weaken buttressing of upstream ice flow. Large uncertainties associated with the ice sheet response to climate variations are due to a poor understanding of these fracture processes and how to model them. Here, we address these problems by implementing an anisotropic, nonlocal integral formulation of creep damage within a large‐scale shallow‐shelf ice flow model. This model can be used to study the full evolution of fracture from initiation of crevassing to rifting that eventually causes tabular calving. While previous ice shelf fracture models have largely relied on simple expressions to estimate crevasse depths, our model parameterizes fracture as a progressive damage evolution process in three‐dimensions (3‐D). We also implement an efficient numerical framework based on the material point method, which avoids advection errors. Using an idealized marine ice sheet, we test the creep damage model and a crevasse‐depth based damage model, including a modified version of the latter that accounts for damage evolution due to necking and mass balance. We demonstrate that the creep damage model is best suited for capturing weakening and rifting over shorter (monthly/yearly) timescales, and that anisotropic damage reproduces typically observed fracture patterns better than isotropic damage. Because necking and mass balance can significantly influence damage on longer (decadal) timescales, we discuss the potential for a combined approach between models to best represent mechanical weakening and tabular calving within long‐term simulations., Key Points Our shallow‐shelf creep damage model can represent the full evolution of ice shelf fracture from crevasse initiation to tabular calvingStrongly anisotropic creep damage produces sharp, arcuate rift patterns more consistent with observations than isotropic creep damageThe zero‐stress damage model poorly captures rifting, but a modified form accounts for damage evolution due to mass balance and necking

Estimates of Amazon rainforest gross primary productivity (GPP) differ by a factor of 2 across a suite of three statistical and 18 process models. This wide spread contributes uncertainty to predictions of future climate. We compare the mean and variance of GPP from these models to that of GPP at six eddy covariance (EC) towers. Only one model's mean GPP across all sites falls within a 99% confidence interval for EC GPP, and only one model matches EC variance. The strength of model response to climate drivers is related to model ability to match the seasonal pattern of the EC GPP. Models with stronger seasonal swings in GPP have stronger responses to rain, light, and temperature than does EC GPP. The model to data comparison illustrates a trade‐off inherent to deterministic models between accurate simulation of a mean (average) and accurate responsiveness to drivers. The trade‐off exists because all deterministic models simplify processes and lack at least some consequential driver or interaction. If a model's sensitivities to included drivers and their interactions are accurate, then deterministically predicted outcomes have less variability than is realistic. If a GPP model has stronger responses to climate drivers than found in data, model predictions may match the observed variance and seasonal pattern but are likely to overpredict GPP response to climate change. High or realistic variability of model estimates relative to reference data indicate that the model is hypersensitive to one or more drivers., Key Points Regression logic is reason to doubt the accurate climate sensitivity of predictions whose variability is realistic or higherA suite of models poorly reproduces eddy covariance estimates of Amazon rainforest gross primary productivityHighly seasonal models predict stronger primary productivity responsiveness to meteorology than is likely to be true

We develop a generalized interpolation material point method (GIMPM) for the shallow shelf approximation (SSA) of ice flow. The GIMPM, which can be viewed as a particle version of the finite element method, is used here to solve the shallow shelf approximations of the momentum balance and ice thickness evolution equations. We introduce novel numerical schemes for particle splitting and integration at domain boundaries to accurately simulate the spreading of an ice shelf. The advantages of the proposed GIMPM‐SSA framework include efficient advection of history or internal state variables without diffusion errors, automated tracking of the ice front and grounding line at sub‐element scales, and a weak formulation based on well‐established conventions of the finite element method with minimal additional computational cost. We demonstrate the numerical accuracy and stability of the GIMPM using 1‐D and 2‐D benchmark examples. We also compare the accuracy of the GIMPM with the standard material point method (sMPM) and a reweighted form of the sMPM. We find that the grid‐crossing error is very severe for SSA simulations with the sMPM, whereas the GIMPM successfully mitigates this error. While the grid‐crossing error can be reasonably reduced in the sMPM by implementing a simple material point reweighting scheme, this approach it not as accurate as the GIMPM. Thus, we illustrate that the GIMPM‐SSA framework is viable for the simulation of ice sheet‐shelf evolution and enables boundary tracking and error‐free advection of history or state variables, such as ice thickness or damage., Key Points Our material point method for ice shelf flow enables error‐free advection of history variables, such as damage, and ice front trackingThe method can be readily implemented into existing finite element software (here, Elmer/Ice), and is suitable for large‐scale applicationThe method is verified against analytical solutions for steady‐state flow and front evolution, and tested on an idealized marine ice sheet

Elevated concentrations of atmospheric bromine are known to cause ozone depletion in the Arctic, which is most frequently observed during springtime. We implement a detailed description of bromine and chlorine chemistry within the WRF‐Chem 4.1.1 model, and two different descriptions of Arctic bromine activation: (1) heterogeneous chemistry on surface snow on sea ice, triggered by ozone deposition to snow (Toyota et al., 2011 https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-11-3949-2011), and (2) heterogeneous reactions on sea salt aerosols emitted through the sublimation of lofted blowing snow (Yang et al., 2008, https://doi.org/10.1029/2008gl034536). In both mechanisms, bromine activation is sustained by heterogeneous reactions on aerosols and surface snow. Simulations for spring 2012 covering the entire Arctic reproduce frequent and widespread ozone depletion events, and comparisons with observations of ozone show that these developments significantly improve model predictions during the Arctic spring. Simulations show that ozone depletion events can be initiated by both surface snow on sea ice, or by aerosols that originate from blowing snow. On a regional scale, in spring 2012, snow on sea ice dominates halogen activation and ozone depletion at the surface. During this period, blowing snow is a major source of Arctic sea salt aerosols but only triggers a few depletion events., Key Points Halogen activation and its role in Arctic surface ozone depletion events (ODEs) is modeled using WRF‐ChemTwo halogen activation mechanisms are implemented (1) surface snow and (2) blowing snowA spring 2012 case study indicates that both mechanisms can trigger near‐surface ODEs, but that surface snow dominates

Funder: U.K. China Research and Innovation Partnership Fund, Funder: National Centre for Atmospheric Science (NCAS); Id: http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100000662, Reconstructions of volcanic aerosol radiative forcing are required to understand past climate variability. Currently, reconstructions of pre‐20th century volcanic forcing are derived from sulfate concentrations measured in polar ice cores, mainly using a relationship between the average ice‐sheet sulfate deposition and stratospheric sulfate aerosol burden based on a single explosive eruption—the 1991 eruption of Mt. Pinatubo. Here we estimate volcanic radiative forcings and associated uncertainty ranges from ice‐core sulfate records of eight of the largest bipolar deposition signals in the last 2,500 years using statistical emulation of a perturbed parameter ensemble of aerosol‐climate model simulations of explosive eruptions. Extensive sampling of different combinations of eruption source parameters using the emulators reveals that a very wide range of eruptions in different seasons with different sulfur dioxide emissions, eruption latitudes, and emission altitudes produce ice‐sheet sulfate deposition consistent with ice‐core records. Consequently, we find a large range in the volcanic forcing that can be directly attributed to the unknown eruption source parameters. We estimate that the uncertainty in volcanic forcing caused by many plausible eruption realizations leads to uncertainties in the global mean surface cooling of around 1°C for the largest unidentified historical eruptions. Our emulators are available online (https://cemac.github.io/volcanic-forcing-deposition) where eruption realizations for given ice‐sheet sulfate depositions can be explored.

Global air pollution and climate change are major threats to planetary health. These threats are strongly linked through the short‐lived climate forcers (SLCFs); ozone (O3), aerosols, and methane (CH4). Understanding the impacts of ambitious SLCF mitigation in different source emission sectors on planetary health indicators can help prioritize international air pollution control strategies. A global Earth system model is applied to quantify the impacts of idealized 50% sustained reductions in year 2005 emissions in the eight largest global anthropogenic source sectors on the SLCFs and three indicators of planetary health: global mean surface air temperature change (∆GSAT), avoided PM2.5‐related premature mortalities and gross primary productivity (GPP). The model represents fully coupled atmospheric chemistry, aerosols, land ecosystems and climate, and includes dynamic CH4. Avoided global warming is modest, with largest impacts from 50% cuts in domestic (−0.085 K), agriculture (−0.034 K), and waste/landfill (−0.033 K). The 50% cuts in energy, domestic, and agriculture sector emissions offer the largest opportunities to mitigate global PM2.5‐related health risk at around 5%–7% each. Such small global impacts underline the challenges ahead in achieving the World Health Organization aspirational goal of a 2/3 reduction in the number of deaths from air pollution by 2030. Uncertainty due to natural climate variability in PM2.5 is an important underplayed dimension in global health risk assessment that can vastly exceed uncertainty due to the concentration‐response functions at the large regional scale. Globally, cuts to agriculture and domestic sector emissions are the most attractive targets to achieve climate and health co‐benefits through SLCF mitigation., Key Points Quantify impacts of deep short‐lived climate forcer (SLCF) emission mitigation by source sector on global temperature and human and ecosystem healthUncertainties due to year‐to‐year meteorological variability in PM2.5 is an important dimension in global human health risk assessmentAchieving planetary health benefits from SLCF mitigation requires ambitious mitigation pathways that tackle multiple source sectors

GNSS Reflectometry (GNSS‐R) measurements over inland water bodies, such as lakes, rivers, and wetlands exhibit strong coherent signals. The strength of the coherent reflections is highly sensitive to small‐scale surface roughness. For inland waters, this roughness is primarily due to wind‐driven surface waves. The sensitivity of the coherent reflections to surface roughness can be leveraged to estimate wave height profiles across inland waters. Coupled with a wind wave model, an approach to retrieve a wind vector is described using a forward model, which is potentially able to predict scattered power profiles for different wind speeds and directions and choosing the minimum‐squared error solution. The ability for spaceborne or airborne GNSS‐R to measure an inland water wind vector and wave heights could contribute to scientific applications focused on understanding nearshore ecosystems, monitoring climate change effects on inland waters, sediment resuspension, biomass production, fish habitat, and others. This paper presents a novel approach to potentially retrieve wind vector and wave heights over inland waters using GNSS‐R and discusses the issues with performing such retrievals using simulation and very few available raw signals recorded from CYGNSS satellites., Key Points Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS) signals reflected from inland waters exhibit coherent scattering properties that make them highly sensitive to water surface roughnessWind‐induced roughness will vary across a water body, with a strong dependence on wind speed, wind direction, and the water depthDiscuss potentials of a novel model‐based approach for retrieval a of wind vector and surface wave heights over lakes using CYGNSS data

By injecting a mixture of gas and pyroclasts into the atmosphere, explosive volcanic eruptions frequently generate vortex rings, which are toroidal vortices formed by the jet's initial momentum. Here, we report high‐speed imaging and acoustic measurements of vortex rings sourcing from gas‐rich eruptive jets at Stromboli volcano (Italy). Volcanic vortex rings (VVRs) form at the vent together with an initial compression acoustic wave, VVRs maximum rise velocity being directly proportional to the amplitude and inversely proportional to the duration of the compression wave. The axial rise and acoustic signature of VVRs match well those predicted by recent fluid‐dynamic experiments. This good match allows using the high‐frequency (80–1,000 Hz) component of the jet sound and the time‐dependent rise of VVRs to retrieve two key eruption parameters: the Mach number of the eruptive jets (, Key Points Volcanic vortex rings are formed by gas‐rich, jet‐forming Strombolian‐style explosionsThe explosion acoustic signals bear the signature of the vortex rings and reveal supersonic eruptive jets with Mach number up to 1.5Vent diameter can be estimated from the time‐dependent rise of vortex rings at 0.7 m, in agreement with direct observation from Uncrewed Aerial Vehicle

Losses from natural hazards are escalating dramatically, with more properties and critical infrastructure affected each year. Although the magnitude, intensity, and/or frequency of certain hazards has increased, development contributes to this unsustainable trend, as disasters emerge when natural disturbances meet vulnerable assets and populations. To diagnose development patterns leading to increased exposure in the conterminous United States (CONUS), we identified earthquake, flood, hurricane, tornado, and wildfire hazard hotspots, and overlaid them with land use information from the Historical Settlement Data Compilation data set. Our results show that 57% of structures (homes, schools, hospitals, office buildings, etc.) are located in hazard hotspots, which represent only a third of CONUS area, and ∼1.5 million buildings lie in hotspots for two or more hazards. These critical levels of exposure are the legacy of decades of sustained growth and point to our inability, lack of knowledge, or unwillingness to limit development in hazardous zones. Development in these areas is still growing more rapidly than the baseline rates for the nation, portending larger future losses even if the effects of climate change are not considered., Key Points More than half of the structures in the conterminous United States are exposed to potentially devastating natural hazardsGrowth rates in hazard hotspots exceed the national trendRisk assessments can be improved by considering multiple hazards, mitigation history and fine‐scale data on the built environment

This study investigates the atmospheric drivers of severe precipitation deficits in the Greater Alpine Region during the last 210 years utilizing a daily atmospheric circulation type reconstruction. Precipitation deficit tends to be higher during periods with more frequent anticyclonic (dry) and less frequent cyclonic (wet) circulation types, as would be expected. However, circulation characteristics are not the main drivers of summer precipitation deficit. Dry soils in the warm season tend to limit precipitation, which is particularly the case for circulation types that are sensitive to a soil moisture‐precipitation feedback. This mechanism is of specific relevance in explaining the major drought decades of the 1860s and 1940s. Both episodes show large negative precipitation anomalies in spring followed by increasing frequencies of circulation types sensitive to soil moisture precipitation feedbacks. The dry springs of the 1860s were likely caused by circulation characteristics that were quite different from those of recent decades as a consequence of the large spatial extent of Arctic sea ice at the end of the Little Ice Age. On the other hand, the dry springs of the 1940s developed under a persistent positive pressure anomaly across Western and Central Europe, triggered by positive sea surface temperatures in the western subtropical Atlantic., Key Points Winter and spring droughts are strongly related to the Eastern Atlantic‐Western Russia atmospheric variability patternSummer droughts are enhanced by prevailing dry spring conditions through a positive soil moisture‐precipitation feedbackThe major dry episodes in the 1860s and 1940s are particularly driven by this feedback mechanismThe dry springs of the 1860s were likely caused by unusual circulation regimes, synchronized with large spatial extents of Arctic sea ice at the end of the Little Ice AgeThe dry springs of the 1940s are due to positive sea surface temperature anomalies in the western subtropical Atlantic, which are related to a positive Eastern Atlantic‐Western Russia pattern

We analyzed the interaction between the North American monsoon anticyclone (NAMA) and summertime cross‐tropopause convective outflow by applying a trajectory analysis to a climatology of convective overshooting tops (OTs) identified in GOES satellite images, which covers the domain from 29°S to 68°N and from 205 to 1.25°W for the time period of May through September 2013. With this analysis we identified seasonally, geographically, and altitude‐dependent variability in NAMA strength and in cross‐tropopause convection that control their interaction. We find that the NAMA has the strongest impact on the circulation of convectively influenced air masses in August. Over the entire time period examined the intertropical convergence zone contributes the majority of OTs with a larger fraction of total OTs at 370 K (on average 70%) than at 400 K (on average 52%). During August at 370 K, the convectively influenced air masses within the NAMA circulation, as determined by the trajectory analysis, are primarily sourced from the intertropical convergence zone (monthly average of 66.1%), while at 400 K the Sierra Madres and the Central United States combined constitute the dominant source region (monthly average of 44.1%, compared to 36.6% of the combined Intertropical Convergence Zone regions). When evaluating the impact of cross‐tropopause convection on the composition and chemistry of the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere, the effects of the NAMA on both the distribution of convective outflow and the residence time of convectively influenced air masses within the NAMA region must be considered., Key Points A trajectory analysis of overshooting tops identifies effect of North American Monsoon Anticyclone on cross‐tropopause convective outflowThe North American monsoons anticyclone's influence is greatest in August concurrent with the overshooting convection maximum frequencyThe intertropical convergence zone contributes most of the overshooting tops, but at upper levels other regions' contributions increase

Hydrographic data collected from research cruises, bottom‐anchored moorings, drifting Ice‐Tethered Profilers, and satellite altimetry in the Beaufort Gyre region of the Arctic Ocean document an increase of more than 6,400 km3 of liquid freshwater content from 2003 to 2018: a 40% growth relative to the climatology of the 1970s. This fresh water accumulation is shown to result from persistent anticyclonic atmospheric wind forcing (1997–2018) accompanied by sea ice melt, a wind‐forced redirection of Mackenzie River discharge from predominantly eastward to westward flow, and a contribution of low salinity waters of Pacific Ocean origin via Bering Strait. Despite significant uncertainties in the different observations, this study has demonstrated the synergistic value of having multiple diverse datasets to obtain a more comprehensive understanding of Beaufort Gyre freshwater content variability. For example, Beaufort Gyre Observational System (BGOS) surveys clearly show the interannual increase in freshwater content, but without satellite or Ice‐Tethered Profiler measurements, it is not possible to resolve the seasonal cycle of freshwater content, which in fact is larger than the year‐to‐year variability, or the more subtle interannual variations., Key Points Beaufort Gyre freshwater content time series (2003–2018) from different data sets are updated, compared, and analyzedQualitative and quantitative estimates of factors and mechanisms driving freshwater content changes are providedIn 2003–2018, the major sources of accumulated fresh water were sea ice melt, Mackenzie River runoff, and Bering Strait transport

The Southern Hemisphere zonal circulation manifests a downward influence of the stratosphere on the troposphere from late spring to early summer. However, the strength and timescale of the connection, given the stratospheric state, have not been explicitly quantified. Here, SH zonal wind reanalysis time series are analyzed with a methodology designed to detect the minimal set of statistical predictors of multiple interacting variables via conditional independence tests. Our results confirm from data that the variability of the stratospheric polar vortex is a predictor of the tropospheric eddy‐driven jet between September and January. The vortex variability explains about 40% of monthly mean jet variability at a lead time of 1 month and can entirely account for the observed jet persistence. Our statistical model can quantitatively connect the multidecadal trends observed in the vortex and jet during the satellite era. This shows how short‐term variability can help understand statistical links in long‐term changes., Key Points Autocorrelation of stratospheric polar vortex variability inflates persistence of cross correlations with the tropospheric eddy‐driven jetA conditional analysis identifies the vortex as statistical predictor for 40% of monthly jet variability in spring/summerThe inferred statistical model explains the enhanced jet persistence and connects the vortex and jet trends observed in the satellite era

The atmospheric circulation response to global warming is important for accurate prediction of climate change on regional scales. For the midlatitudes, shifts in the extratropical jet streams have important consequences for precipitation, blocking, and extreme events. It has proven to be a challenge, however, to predict. For example, the North Atlantic jet stream plays a vital role in the climate of eastern North America and Europe; in the last intercomparison of state‐of‐the‐art climate models, the models did not even agree on the sign of its wintertime response to global warming. Perhaps this should not come as a surprise, as we also lack a comprehensive theory for the impact of warming on the midlatitude circulation. In a recent study, Tan et al. (2019, https://doi.org/10.1029/2018MS001492) constructed models of simpler atmospheres to explore the response of the midlatitude jet to global warming. Their idealized atmospheres highlight the difficulty of developing a comprehensive theory for the midlatitude circulation but also provide pathways to improve models of Earth's atmosphere. Models of simpler atmospheres allow one to isolate the impact of specific atmospheric processes and connect theoretical understanding with comprehensive climate prediction systems. Such models can also be used to explore very different atmospheric regimes, from Earth's past to distant planets., Key Points The atmospheric circulation response to global warming is both a challenge to predict and to understandModels of idealized atmospheres allow a process‐oriented investigation of the circulation responseA growing number of models of simpler atmospheres are being developed and shared

Extremely high temperatures pose an immediate threat to humans and ecosystems. In recent years, many regions on land and in the ocean experienced heat waves with devastating impacts that would have been highly unlikely without human‐induced climate change. Impacts are particularly severe when heat waves occur in regions with high exposure of people or crops. The recent 2018 spring‐to‐summer season was characterized by several major heat and dry extremes. On daily average between May and July 2018 about 22% of the populated and agricultural areas north of 30° latitude experienced concurrent hot temperature extremes. Events of this type were unprecedented prior to 2010, while similar conditions were experienced in the 2010 and 2012 boreal summers. Earth System Model simulations of present‐day climate, that is, at around +1 °C global warming, also display an increase of concurrent heat extremes. Based on Earth System Model simulations, we show that it is virtually certain (using Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change calibrated uncertainty language) that the 2018 north hemispheric concurrent heat events would not have occurred without human‐induced climate change. Our results further reveal that the average high‐exposure area projected to experience concurrent warm and hot spells in the Northern Hemisphere increases by about 16% per additional +1 °C of global warming. A strong reduction in fossil fuel emissions is paramount to reduce the risks of unprecedented global‐scale heat wave impacts., Key Points Twenty‐two percent of populated and agricultural areas of the Northern Hemisphere concurrently experienced hot extremes between May and July 2018It is virtually certain that these 2018 northhemispheric concurrent heat events could not have occurred without human‐induced climate changeWe would experience a GCWH18‐like event nearly 2 out of 3 years at +1.5 °C and every year at +2 °C global warming

The changing risk of extreme precipitation is difficult to project. Events are rare by definition, and return periods of heavy precipitation events are often calculated assuming a stationary climate. Furthermore, ensembles of climate model projections are not large enough to fully categorize the tails of the distribution. To address this, we cluster the contiguous United States into self‐similar hydroclimates to estimate changes in the expected frequency of extremely rare events under scenarios of global mean temperature change. We find that, although there is some regional variation, record events are projected in general to become more intense, with 500‐year events intensifying by 10–50% under 2 °C of warming and by 40–100% under 4 °C of warming. This analysis could provide information to inform regional prioritization of resources to improve the resilience of U.S. infrastructure., Key Points Spatial clustering can be used to create stable projections of extreme precipitation eventsAnalysis over the United States suggests 1,000‐year events will be up to 5 times more frequent under 2 degree C warmingDifferences in projections between regions are evident, with the U.S. East Coast and mountain regions showing large intensification

Climate change is expected to increase waterborne diseases especially in developing countries. However, we lack understanding of how different types of water sources (both improved and unimproved) are affected by climate change, and thus, where to prioritize future investments and improvements to maximize health outcomes. This is due to limited knowledge of the relationships between source water quality and the observed variability in climate conditions. To address this gap, a 20‐month observational study was conducted in Tanzania, aiming to understand how water quality changes at various types of sources due to short‐term climate variability. Nine rounds of microbiological water quality sampling were conducted for Escherichia coli and total coliforms, at three study sites within different climatic regions. Each round included approximately 233 samples from water sources and 632 samples from households. To identify relationships between water quality and short‐term climate variability, Bayesian hierarchical modeling was adopted, allowing these relationships to vary with source types and sampling regions to account for potentially different physical processes. Across water sources, increases in E. coli/total coliform levels were most closely related to increases in recent heavy rainfall. Our key recommendations to future longitudinal studies are (a) demonstrated value of high sampling frequency and temporal coverage (a minimum of 3 years) especially during wet seasons; (b) utility of the Bayesian hierarchical models to pool data from multiple sites while allowing for variations across space and water sources; and (c) importance of a multidisciplinary team approach with consistent commitment and sharing of knowledge., Key Points We present a longitudinal study in a developing country on water quality changes at a range of water sources under climate variabilityIncreases in E. coli and Total Coliform levels were most closely related to recent heavy rainfallRecommendations for future cross disciplinary studies on drinking water quality and relationships with climate variability are made

Vb cyclones typically emerge in the Western Mediterranean and propagate to the Northeast into Central Europe. This paper explores the temporal characteristics of Vb cyclone occurrence based on cyclone tracks identified at the atmospheric levels of Z700 and sea level pressure, using JRA‐55 reanalysis data for the period 1959–2015. The risk of Vb occurrence was significantly high in the 1960s and has remained at a lower level since then. Vb cyclones do not occur fully randomly according to a Poisson point process. Eleven well‐separated and distinct clusters as well as 11 hiatus periods are identified, with average occurrence rates of 21.5 and 5.2 yrea−1, respectively. During the event of Vb, the large‐scale atmospheric circulation is changed into a state favoring the development of successive Vb cyclones. Clustering is very prominent in the case of Genoan Vb cyclones in summer as well as those Vb cyclones developing over the Iberian Peninsula or the North African Coast in winter. Superposition of the polar and the subtropical jet stream over the Western Mediterranean is identified as a main feature at the onset of Vb cyclones. Vb cyclone occurrence appears to be synchronized with the Northern Atlantic Oscillation (NAO; at Z500) and Arctic Oscillation (AO; at Z1000). Clusters have occurred when both NAO and AO were negative. This relation applies to Western Mediterranean cyclones not following a Vb track as well, however to a much weaker extent. In contrast, Vb cyclone frequency was particularly low from 1988 to 1997 during a sustained positive phase of both NAO and AO., Key Points In the past 50 years, the frequency of Vb cyclones was high in the 1960s and lower since thenVb cyclones were strongly synchronized with NAO and AO; high frequency clusters occurred when NAO and AO were negativeThe coupling of the polar and the subtropical jet stream over the Western Mediterranean is a driving mechanism of the onset of Vb cyclones

The Tien Shan and Pamir mountains host over 28,000 glaciers providing essential water resources for increasing water demand in Central Asia. A disequilibrium between glaciers and climate affects meltwater release to Central Asian rivers, challenging the region's water availability. Previous research has neglected temporal variability. We present glacier mass balance estimates based on transient snowline and geodetic surveys with unprecedented spatiotemporal resolution from 1999/00 to 2017/18. Our results reveal spatiotemporal heterogeneity characterized by two mass balance clusters: (a) positive, low variability, and (b) negative, high variability. This translates into variable glacial meltwater release (≈1–16%) of annual river runoff for two watersheds. Our study reveals more complex climate forcing‐runoff responses and importance of glacial meltwater variability for the region than suggested previously., Key Points Annual glacier mass balance for Central Asia (1999/00–2017/18) is derived by combining transient snowlines, geodetic surveys, and modelingStrong spatiotemporal heterogeneity with contrasting patterns of mass gain and loss are foundHot spots of heterogeneous mass balance variability are associated with highly variable glacier melt water runoff