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Abstract Adiposity is an established risk factor for multiple diseases, but the causal relationships of different adiposity types with circulating protein biomarkers have not been systematically investigated. We examine the causal associations of general and central adiposity with 2923 plasma proteins among 3977 Chinese adults (mean BMI = 23.9 kg/m²). Genetically-predicted body mass index (BMI), body fat percentage (BF%), waist circumference (WC), and waist-to-hip ratio (WHR) are significantly (FDR

Abstract Background There is no consensus on the cause and effect of systemic chronic inflammation (SCI) regarding chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). The impact of second-hand smoke (SHS) on COPD has reached inconsistent conclusions. Methods The China Kadoorie Biobank cohort was followed up from the 2004–08 baseline survey to 31 December 2018. Among the selected 445,523 participants in the final analysis, Cox and linear regressions were performed to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) of tobacco exposure with COPD risk and baseline levels of log-transformed inflammatory factors [βs (95% CIs)], respectively. Results Participants were followed up for a median of 12.1 years and 11,825 incident COPD events were documented. Ever-smokers were associated with a higher risk of COPD than non-smokers with non-weekly SHS exposure. A younger age to start smoking, a greater amount of daily tobacco consumption, and deeper inhalation were associated with increased risk of COPD and correlated with elevated levels of plasma high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (hs-CRP, all P trend

Abstract Elevated blood pressure (BP) is major risk factor for cardiovascular diseases (CVD). Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) conducted predominantly in populations of European ancestry have identified >2,000 BP-associated loci, but other ancestries have been less well-studied. We conducted GWAS of systolic, diastolic, pulse, and mean arterial BP in 100,453 Chinese adults. We identified 128 non-overlapping loci associated with one or more BP traits, including 74 newly-reported associations. Despite strong genetic correlations between populations, we identified appreciably higher heritability and larger variant effect sizes in Chinese compared with European or Japanese ancestry populations. Using instruments derived from these GWAS, multivariable Mendelian randomisation demonstrated that BP traits contribute differently to the causal associations of BP with CVD. In particular, only pulse pressure was independently causally associated with carotid plaque. These findings reinforce the need for studies in diverse populations to understand the genetic determinants of BP traits and their roles in disease risk.

Non-optimal temperature is a leading risk factor for global disease burden. Most epidemiological studies assessed only outdoor temperature, with important uncertainties on personal exposure misclassification. The CKB-Air study measured personal, household (kitchen and living room), and outdoor temperatures in the summer (MAY-SEP 2017) and winter (NOV 2017-JAN 2018) in 477 participants in China. After data cleaning, ∼88,000 person-hours of data were recorded across each microenvironment. Using multivariable linear regression (MLR) and random forest (RF) models, we identified key predictors and constructed personal temperature exposure prediction models. We used generalised additive mixed effect models to examine the relationships of personal and outdoor temperatures with heart rate. The 24-hour mean (SD) personal and outdoor temperatures were 29.2 (3.8) °C and 27.6 (6.4) °C in summer, and 12.0 (4.0) °C and 7.5 (4.2) °C in winter, respectively. The temperatures across microenvironments were strongly correlated (Spearman’s ρ: 0.86–0.92) in summer. In winter, personal temperature was strongly related to household temperatures (ρ: 0.74–0.79) but poorly related to outdoor temperature (ρ: 0.30). RF algorithm identified household and outdoor temperatures and study date as top predictors of personal temperature exposure for both seasons, and heating-related factors were important in winter. The final MLR and RF models incorporating questionnaire and device data performed satisfactorily in predicting personal exposure in both seasons (R2summer: 0.92; R2winter: 0.68–0.70). We found consistent U-shaped associations between measured and predicted personal temperature exposures and heart rate (lowest at ∼ 14.5 °C), but a weak positive linear association with outdoor temperature. Personal and outdoor temperatures differ substantially winter, but prediction models incorporating household and outdoor temperatures and questionnaire data performed satisfactorily. Exposure misclassification from using outdoor temperature may produce inappropriate epidemiological findings.

Abstract Background Lung cancer is the leading cause of cancer mortality among Chinese females despite the low smoking prevalence among this population. This study assessed the roles of reproductive factors in lung cancer development among Chinese female never-smokers. Methods The prospective China Kadoorie Biobank (CKB) recruited over 0.5 million Chinese adults (0.3 million females) from 10 geographical areas in China in 2004–2008 when information on socio-demographic/lifestyle/environmental factors, physical measurements, medical history, and reproductive history collected through interviewer-administered questionnaires. Cox proportional hazard regression was used to estimate adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) of lung cancer by reproductive factors. Subgroup analyses by menopausal status, birth year, and geographical region were performed. Results During a median follow-up of 11 years, 2,284 incident lung cancers occurred among 282,558 female never-smokers. Ever oral contraceptive use was associated with a higher risk of lung cancer (HR = 1.16, 95% CI: 1.02–1.33) with a significant increasing trend associated with longer duration of use (p-trend = 0.03). Longer average breastfeeding duration per child was associated with a decreased risk (0.86, 0.78–0.95) for > 12 months compared with those who breastfed for 7–12 months. No statistically significant association was detected between other reproductive factors and lung cancer risk. Conclusion Oral contraceptive use was associated with an increased risk of lung cancer in Chinese female never-smokers. Further studies are needed to assess lung cancer risk related to different types of oral contraceptives in similar populations.

Summary: Background: In non-high-risk individuals, risk-category-based atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) screening strategies may be more cost-effective than one-size-fits-all approaches. However, current decisions are constrained by a lack of research evidence. We aimed to explore appropriate risk-category-based screening interval strategies for non-high-risk individuals in ASCVD primary prevention in the Chinese population. Methods: We used data from 28,624 participants in the China Kadoorie Biobank (CKB) who had completed at least two field surveys. The risk assessment tools were the 10-year ASCVD risk prediction models developed based on the CKB cohort. We constructed multistate Markov models to model disease progression and estimate transition probabilities between different risk categories. The total person-years spent unidentified in the high-risk state over a 10-year period were calculated for each screening interval protocol. We also estimated the number of ASCVD events prevented, quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) gained, and costs saved when compared to the 3-yearly screening protocol. Findings: When compared to the uniform 3-yearly protocol, most risk-category-based screening interval protocols would identify more high-risk individuals timely, thus preventing more ASCVD events and gaining QALYs. A few of them would reduce total health-care costs. The protocol, which used 6-year, 3-year, and 2-year screening intervals for low-risk, intermediate-low-risk, and intermediate-high risk individuals, was optimal, and would reduce the person-years spent unidentified in the high-risk category by 17.9% (95% CI: 13.1%–21.9%), thus preventing an estimated 113 thousand (95% CI: 83–138) hard ASCVD events for Chinese adults aged 30–79 over a 10-year period. When using a lower cost of statin therapy, more screening protocols would gain QALYs while saving costs. Interpretation: For the primary prevention of ASCVD, risk-category-based screening protocols outperformed the one-size-fits-all approach in the Chinese population. Funding: This work was supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China (82192904, 82388102, 82192900) and grants (2023YFC2509400) from the National Key R&D Program of China. The CKB baseline survey and the first re-survey were supported by a grant from the Kadoorie Charitable Foundation in Hong Kong. The long-term follow-up is supported by grants from the UK Wellcome Trust (212946/Z/18/Z, 202922/Z/16/Z, 104085/Z/14/Z, 088158/Z/09/Z), grants (2016YFC0900500) from the National Key R&D Program of China, National Natural Science Foundation of China (81390540, 91846303, 81941018), and Chinese Ministry of Science and Technology (2011BAI09B01).

Summary: Background: Hospitals in China are classified into tiers (1, 2 or 3), with the largest (tier 3) having more equipment and specialist staff. Differential health insurance cost-sharing by hospital tier (lower deductibles and higher reimbursement rates in lower tiers) was introduced to reduce overcrowding in higher tier hospitals, promote use of lower tier hospitals, and limit escalating healthcare costs. However, little is known about the effects of differential cost-sharing in health insurance schemes on choice of hospital tiers. Methods: In a 9-year follow-up of a prospective study of 0.5 M adults from 10 areas in China, we examined the associations between differential health insurance cost-sharing and choice of hospital tiers for patients with a first hospitalisation for stroke or ischaemic heart disease (IHD) in 2009–2017. Analyses were performed separately in urban areas (stroke: n = 20,302; IHD: n = 19,283) and rural areas (stroke: n = 21,130; IHD: n = 17,890), using conditional logit models and adjusting for individual socioeconomic and health characteristics. Findings: About 64–68% of stroke and IHD cases in urban areas and 27–29% in rural areas chose tier 3 hospitals. In urban areas, higher reimbursement rates in each tier and lower tier 3 deductibles were associated with a greater likelihood of choosing their respective hospital tiers. In rural areas, the effects of cost-sharing were modest, suggesting a greater contribution of other factors. Higher socioeconomic status and greater disease severity were associated with a greater likelihood of seeking care in higher tier hospitals in urban and rural areas. Interpretation: Patient choice of hospital tiers for treatment of stroke and IHD in China was influenced by differential cost-sharing in urban areas, but not in rural areas. Further strategies are required to incentivise appropriate health seeking behaviour and promote more efficient hospital use. Funding: Wellcome Trust, Medical Research Council, British Heart Foundation, Cancer Research UK, Kadoorie Charitable Foundation, China Ministry of Science and Technology, and National Natural Science Foundation of China.

Summary: Background: Previous observational studies established a positive relationship between snoring and stroke. We aimed to investigate the causal effect of snoring on stroke. Methods: Based on 82,339 unrelated individuals with qualified genotyping data of Asian descent from the China Kadoorie Biobank (CKB), we conducted a Mendelian randomization (MR) analysis of snoring and stroke. Genetic variants identified in the genome-wide association analysis (GWAS) of snoring in CKB and UK Biobank (UKB) were selected for constructing genetic risk scores (GRS). A two-stage method was applied to estimate the associations of the genetically predicted snoring with stroke and its subtypes. Besides, MR analysis among the non-obese group (body mass index, BMI

Abstract Background Although it is known that variation in the aldehyde dehydrogenase 2 (ALDH2) gene family influences the East Asian alcohol flushing response, knowledge about other genetic variants that affect flushing symptoms is limited. Methods We performed a genome-wide association study meta-analysis and heritability analysis of alcohol flushing in 15,105 males of East Asian ancestry (Koreans and Chinese) to identify genetic associations with alcohol flushing. We also evaluated whether self-reported flushing can be used as an instrumental variable for alcohol intake. Results We identified variants in the region of ALDH2 strongly associated with alcohol flushing, replicating previous studies conducted in East Asian populations. Additionally, we identified variants in the alcohol dehydrogenase 1B (ADH1B) gene region associated with alcohol flushing. Several novel variants were identified after adjustment for the lead variants (ALDH2-rs671 and ADH1B-rs1229984), which need to be confirmed in larger studies. The estimated SNP-heritability on the liability scale was 13% (S.E. = 4%) for flushing, but the heritability estimate decreased to 6% (S.E. = 4%) when the effects of the lead variants were controlled for. Genetic instrumentation of higher alcohol intake using these variants recapitulated known associations of alcohol intake with hypertension. Using self-reported alcohol flushing as an instrument gave a similar association pattern of higher alcohol intake and cardiovascular disease-related traits (e.g. stroke). Conclusion This study confirms that ALDH2-rs671 and ADH1B-rs1229984 are associated with alcohol flushing in East Asian populations. Our findings also suggest that self-reported alcohol flushing can be used as an instrumental variable in future studies of alcohol consumption.

Abstract Background The association of incident cardiometabolic multimorbidity (CMM) with mortality risk is rarely studied, and neither are the durations of cardiometabolic diseases (CMDs). Whether the association patterns of CMD durations with mortality change as individuals progress from one CMD to CMM is unclear. Methods Data from China Kadoorie Biobank of 512,720 participants aged 30–79 was used. CMM was defined as the simultaneous presence of two or more CMDs of interest, including diabetes, ischemic heart disease, and stroke. Cox regression was used to estimate the hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for the duration-dependent associations of CMDs and CMM with all-cause and cause-specific mortality. All information on exposures of interest was updated during follow-up. Results During a median follow-up of 12.1 years, 99,770 participants experienced at least one incident CMD, and 56,549 deaths were documented. Among 463,178 participants free of three CMDs at baseline, compared with no CMD during follow-up, the adjusted HRs (95% CIs) between CMM and all-cause mortality, mortality from circulatory system diseases, respiratory system diseases, cancer, and other causes were 2.93 (2.80–3.07), 5.05 (4.74–5.37), 2.72 (2.35–3.14), 1.30 (1.16–1.45), and 2.30 (2.02–2.61), respectively. All CMDs exhibited a high mortality risk in the first year of diagnosis. Subsequently, with prolonged disease duration, mortality risk increased for diabetes, decreased for IHD, and sustained at a high level for stroke. With the presence of CMM, the above association estimates inflated, but the pattern of which remained. Conclusion Among Chinese adults, mortality risk increased with the number of the CMDs and changed with prolonged disease duration, the patterns of which varied among the three CMDs.

Abstract Background DNA methylation clocks emerged as a tool to determine biological aging and have been related to mortality and age-related diseases. Little is known about the association of DNA methylation age (DNAm age) with coronary heart disease (CHD), especially in the Asian population. Results Methylation level of baseline blood leukocyte DNA was measured by Infinium Methylation EPIC BeadChip for 491 incident CHD cases and 489 controls in the prospective China Kadoorie Biobank. We calculated the methylation age using a prediction model developed among Chinese. The correlation between chronological age and DNAm age was 0.90. DNA methylation age acceleration (Δage) was defined as the residual of regressing DNA methylation age on the chronological age. After adjustment for multiple risk factors of CHD and cell type proportion, compared with participants in the bottom quartile of Δage, the OR (95% CI) for CHD was 1.84 (1.17, 2.89) for participants in the top quartile. One SD increment in Δage was associated with 30% increased risk of CHD (OR = 1.30; 95% CI 1.09, 1.56; Ptrend = 0.003). The average number of cigarette equivalents consumed per day and waist-to-hip ratio were positively associated with Δage; red meat consumption was negatively associated with Δage, characterized by accelerated aging in those who never or rarely consumed red meat (all P

Abstract Background Little is known about the effects of maintaining healthy sleep patterns on frailty transitions. Methods Based on 23,847 Chinese adults aged 30–79 in a prospective cohort study, we examined the associations between sleep patterns and frailty transitions. Healthy sleep patterns included sleep duration at 7 or 8 h/d, without insomnia disorder, and no snoring. Participants who persisted with a healthy sleep pattern in both surveys were defined as maintaining a healthy sleep pattern and scored one point. We used 27 phenotypes to construct a frailty index and defined three statuses: robust, prefrail, and frail. Frailty transitions were defined as the change of frailty status between the 2 surveys: improved, worsened, and remained. Log-binomial regression was used to calculate the prevalence ratio (PR) to assess the effect of sleep patterns on frailty transitions. Results During a median follow-up of 8.0 years among 23,847 adults, 45.5% of robust participants, and 10.8% of prefrail participants worsened their frailty status, while 18.6% of prefrail participants improved. Among robust participants at baseline, individuals who maintained sleep duration of 7 or 8 h/ds, without insomnia disorder, and no-snoring were less likely to worsen their frailty status; the corresponding PRs (95% CIs) were 0.92 (0.89–0.96), 0.76 (0.74–0.77), and 0.85 (0.82–0.88), respectively. Similar results were observed among prefrail participants maintaining healthy sleep patterns. Maintaining healthy sleep duration and without snoring, also raised the probability of improving the frailty status; the corresponding PRs were 1.09 (1.00–1.18) and 1.42 (1.31–1.54), respectively. Besides, a dose-response relationship was observed between constantly healthy sleep scores and the risk of frailty transitions (P for trend

Abstract Background In China, colorectal cancer (CRC) incidence and mortality have been steadily increasing over the last decades. Risk models to predict incident CRC have been developed in various populations, but they have not been systematically externally validated in a Chinese population. This study aimed to assess the performance of risk scores in predicting CRC using the China Kadoorie Biobank (CKB), one of the largest and geographically diverse prospective cohort studies in China. Methods Nine models were externally validated in 512,415 participants in CKB and included 2976 cases of CRC. Model discrimination was assessed, overall and by sex, age, site, and geographic location, using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). Model discrimination of these nine models was compared to a model using age alone. Calibration was assessed for five models, and they were re-calibrated in CKB. Results The three models with the highest discrimination (Ma (Cox model) AUC 0.70 [95% CI 0.69–0.71]; Aleksandrova 0.70 [0.69–0.71]; Hong 0.69 [0.67–0.71]) included the variables age, smoking, and alcohol. These models performed significantly better than using a model based on age alone (AUC of 0.65 [95% CI 0.64–0.66]). Model discrimination was generally higher in younger participants, males, urban environments, and for colon cancer. The two models (Guo and Chen) developed in Chinese populations did not perform better than the others. Among the 10% of participants with the highest risk, the three best performing models identified 24–26% of participants that went on to develop CRC. Conclusions Several risk models based on easily obtainable demographic and modifiable lifestyle factor have good discrimination in a Chinese population. The three best performing models have a higher discrimination than using a model based on age alone.

Abstract Associations of circulating metabolic biomarkers with type 2 diabetes (T2D) and their added value for risk prediction are uncertain among Chinese adults. A case-cohort study included 882 T2D cases diagnosed during 8-years’ follow-up and a subcohort of 789 participants. NMR-metabolomic profiling quantified 225 plasma biomarkers in stored samples taken at recruitment into the study. Cox regression yielded adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) for T2D associated with individual biomarkers, with a set of biomarkers incorporated into an established T2D risk prediction model to assess improvement in discriminatory ability. Mean baseline BMI (SD) was higher in T2D cases than in the subcohort (25.7 [3.6] vs. 23.9 [3.6] kg/m2). Overall, 163 biomarkers were significantly and independently associated with T2D at false discovery rate (FDR) controlled p

Abstract. Background:. Few studies have assessed the relationship between multimorbidity patterns and mortality risk in the Chinese population. We aimed to identify multimorbidity patterns and examined the associations of multimorbidity patterns and the number of chronic diseases with the risk of mortality among Chinese middle-aged and older adults. Methods:. We used data from the China Kadoorie Biobank and included 512,723 participants aged 30 to 79 years. Multimorbidity was defined as the presence of two or more of the 15 chronic diseases collected by self-report or physical examination at baseline. Multimorbidity patterns were identified using hierarchical cluster analysis. Cox regression was used to estimate the associations of multimorbidity patterns and the number of chronic diseases with all-cause and cause-specific mortality. Results:. Overall, 15.8% of participants had multimorbidity. The prevalence of multimorbidity increased with age and was higher in urban than rural participants. Four multimorbidity patterns were identified, including cardiometabolic multimorbidity (diabetes, coronary heart disease, stroke, and hypertension), respiratory multimorbidity (tuberculosis, asthma, and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease), gastrointestinal and hepatorenal multimorbidity (gallstone disease, chronic kidney disease, cirrhosis, peptic ulcer, and cancer), and mental and arthritis multimorbidity (neurasthenia, psychiatric disorder, and rheumatoid arthritis). During a median of 10.8 years of follow-up, 49,371 deaths occurred. Compared with participants without multimorbidity, cardiometabolic multimorbidity (hazard ratios [HR] = 2.20, 95% confidence intervals [CI]: 2.14 − 2.26) and respiratory multimorbidity (HR = 2.13, 95% CI:1.97 − 2.31) demonstrated relatively higher risks of mortality, followed by gastrointestinal and hepatorenal multimorbidity (HR = 1.33, 95% CI:1.22 − 1.46). The mortality risk increased by 36% (HR = 1.36, 95% CI: 1.35 − 1.37) with every additional disease. Conclusion:. Cardiometabolic multimorbidity and respiratory multimorbidity posed the highest threat on mortality risk and deserved particular attention in Chinese adults.

Summary: Background: Lower respiratory tract infections, including pneumonia, have been associated with short-term increased risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD). However, there is only limited evidence about the long-term impact of pneumonia on the cardiovascular system beyond one year. Methods: We conducted a prospective matched cohort study based on data from the China Kadoorie Biobank study of 482,017 adults who were enrolled between June 25, 2004, and July 15, 2008, and were free of CVD at baseline and before pneumonia hospitalization. A total of 24,060 patients hospitalised with pneumonia were identified until December 31, 2018, and were matched on age, sex, urban or rural areas, and decile of the frailty index to 223,875 controls. We used the piecewise Cox proportional hazards model to estimate the hazard ratios (HRs) and their 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for pre-specified incident CVD outcomes, including ischaemic heart disease (IHD), arrhythmia, heart failure (HF), ischaemic stroke (IS), and hemorrhagic stroke (HS), at various time intervals through 10 years after pneumonia hospitalization. Findings: Of the 247,935 pneumonia cases and controls included, the mean age (standard deviation) was 53.5 (10.4), and 40.8% (101,159) were men. During follow-up, 2389 (9.9%) pneumonia cases developed IHD, 489 (2.0%) cases developed arrhythmia, 545 (2.3%) cases developed HF, 1764 (7.3%) cases developed IS, and 348 (1.4%) cases developed HS. After adjustment for sociodemographic characteristics, lifestyle factors, health status and medication, underlying conditions, and family history of CVD, the elevated CVD risk was highest within the first 30 days after pneumonia hospitalisation, with subsequent risk reductions varying by subtypes. The elevated risk remained until the eighth year after pneumonia hospitalisation for IHD, arrhythmia, and HF, with HRs (95% CIs) of 1.48 (1.13–1.93), 2.69 (1.70–4.25), and 4.36 (2.86–6.64), respectively. The risk of stroke associated with pneumonia hospitalisation remained elevated until the seventh year for IS (HR = 1.30; 95% CI: 1.04–1.63), and until the second year for HS (1.39; 1.07–1.80). The above associations were consistently observed across various characteristics of the participants. Interpretation: In middle-aged and older Chinese adults, pneumonia hospitalisation was associated with short- and long-term CVD risk, with the elevated risk of certain CVD outcomes persisting for up to 8 years. Funding: National Natural Science Foundation of China, the National Key R&D Program of China, the Chinese Ministry of Science and Technology, the Kadoorie Charitable Foundation in Hong Kong, the UK Wellcome Trust.

Background and aimsLiver biomarkers and metabolic associated fatty liver disease (MAFLD) have been shown to be associated with cardiovascular disease (CVD). However, there is limited evidence on CVD subtypes [myocardial infarction (MI), ischemic stroke (IS), and intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH)], especially in the Chinese population. We examined these associations overall, by genetic predisposition to non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD), and by lifestyle risk factors.Approach and resultsThis is a nested case-control study of CVD (10,298 cases and 5,388 controls) within the China Kadoorie Biobank. Cox regression was used to estimate adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) for CVD associated with liver biomarkers and MAFLD and by stratum of genetic risk and a combined high-risk lifestyle score. For liver enzymes, there were positive associations with MI and IS, but no associations with ICH or carotid plaque. There were positive associations of NAFLD with risks of MI, IS, and ICH (HR 1.43 [95% CI 1.30–1.57], 1.25 [1.16–1.35], and 1.12 [1.02–1.23]) as well as carotid plaque (odds ratio 2.36 [1.12–4.96]). The associations of NAFLD with CVD and carotid plaque were stronger among individuals with a high genetic risk (ICH: p-interaction < 0.05), while the associations with stroke were stronger among those with a favorable lifestyle (p-interaction < 0.05). The results for MAFLD mirrored those for NAFLD.ConclusionIn Chinese adults, liver biomarkers and MAFLD were associated with risk of CVD, with different magnitudes of associations by CVD subtypes. Genetic predisposition to NAFLD and lifestyle factors modified the associations of fatty liver with stroke.

Summary: Background: Stroke is a leading cause of death and disability worldwide. Despite considerable improvements in diagnosis and treatment, little is known about the short-term and long-term prognosis after a first stroke in low-income and middle-income countries, including China. We aimed to assess the short-term and long-term risk of recurrent stroke and mortality after a first stroke for each of the major pathological stroke types. Methods: This population-based cohort study included adults aged 35–74 years without disability who were recruited to the China Kadoorie Biobank (CKB). A baseline survey was conducted in ten geographical areas (five urban, five rural) in China, and participants had clinical measurements recorded. Participants were followed up by monitoring death registries and by electronic linkage to health registries and health insurance claims databases, with follow-up until Jan 1, 2017. Participants were excluded from analyses if they had a previous history of stroke, transient ischaemic attack, or ischaemic heart disease at baseline. All incidences of fatal and non-fatal stroke during the study period were recorded by type (ischaemic stroke, intracerebral haemorrhage, subarachnoid haemorrhage, and unspecified type). Primary outcome measures were 28-day mortality, recurrent stroke, major vascular events (recurrent stroke, myocardial infarction, or vascular death), vascular mortality, and all-cause mortality. Findings: Of 512 715 individuals in the CKB, 489 586 participants without previous ischaemic heart disease and stroke at recruitment were included, of whom 45 732 (42 073 [92%] confirmed by brain imaging) had a stroke during the study period. The mean age was 59·3 years (SD 9·8) for participants who had a stroke (54% women) and 50·8 years (10·3) for participants with no stroke (60% women). 36 588 (80%) of the incident cases of stroke were ischaemic stroke, 7440 (16%) were intracerebral haemorrhage, 702 (2%) were subarachnoid haemorrhage, and 1002 (2%) were an unspecified stroke type. 28-day mortality was 3% (95% CI 3–4) for ischaemic stroke, 47% (46–48)for intracerebral haemorrhage, 19% (17–22; 52% for rural areas and 32% for urban areas) subarachnoid haemorrhage, and 24% (22–27) for unspecified stroke. Among participants who survived stroke at 28 days, 41% (41–42) had recurrent stroke at 5 years (ischaemic stroke 41% [41–42], intracerebral haemorrhage 44% [42–46], subarachnoid haemorrhage 22% [18–27], unspecified stroke type 40% [35–44]) and mortality at 5 years was 17% ([17–18] ischaemic stroke 16% [15–16], intracerebral haemorrhage 28% [26–29], subarachnoid haemorrhage 16% [12–20], unspecified stroke type 15% [12–19]). After a first ischaemic stroke, 91% of recurrent strokes were also ischaemic stroke; after an intracerebral haemorrhage, 56% of recurrent strokes were intracerebral haemorrhage, and 41% of recurrent strokes were ischaemic stroke. Interpretation: After a first stroke, the risk of recurrence or death within 5 years was high among this population of Chinese adults. Urgent improvements to secondary prevention of stroke in China are needed to reduce these risks. Funding: Wellcome Trust, Medical Research Council, British Heart Foundation, Cancer Research UK, Kadoorie Charitable Foundation, Chinese Ministry of Science and Technology, National Natural Science Foundation of China. Copyright: © 2020 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license.

Summary: Background: Cooking practice has transitioned from use of solid fuels to use of clean fuels, with addition of better ventilation facilities. However, the change in mortality risk associated with such a transition remains unclear. Methods: The China Kadoorie Biobank (CKB) Study enrolled participants (aged 30–79 years) from ten areas across China; we chose to study participants from five urban areas where transition from use of solid fuels to clean fuels for cooking was prevalent. Participants who reported regular cooking (weekly or more frequently) at baseline were categorised as persistent clean fuel users, previous solid fuel users, or persistent solid fuel users, according to self-reported fuel use histories. All-cause and cardiopulmonary mortality were identified through linkage to China's Disease Surveillance Point system and local mortality records. Findings: Between June 24, 2004, and July 15, 2008, 226 186 participants living in five urban areas of China were enrolled in the CKB Study. Among 171 677 participants who reported cooking regularly (weekly or more frequently), 75 785 (44%) were persistent clean fuel users, 80 511 (47%) were previous solid fuel users, and 15 381 (9%) were persistent solid fuel users. During a mean of 9·8 (SD 1·7) years of follow-up, 10 831 deaths were documented, including 3819 cardiovascular deaths and 761 respiratory deaths. Compared with persistent clean fuel users, persistent solid fuel users had significantly higher risks of all-cause mortality (hazard ratio [HR] 1·19, 95% CI 1·10–1·28), cardiovascular mortality (1·24, 1·10–1·39), and respiratory mortality (1·43, 1·10–1·85). The excess risk of all-cause and cardiopulmonary mortality fell by more than 60% in 5 years after cessation of solid fuel use and continued to decrease afterwards. Use of ventilation was associated with lower all-cause mortality risk, even among persistent clean fuel users (HR 0·78, 0·69–0·89). Interpretation: Solid fuel use for cooking is associated with a higher risk of mortality, and cessation of solid fuel use cuts excess mortality risks swiftly and substantially within 5 years. Ventilation use also lowers the risk of mortality, even among people who persistently use clean fuels. It is of prime importance for both policy makers and the public to accelerate the transition from solid fuels to clean fuels and promote efficient ventilation to minimise further adverse health effects. Funding: National Natural Science Foundation of China, Wellcome Trust, and Kadoorie Charitable Foundation.

Introduction In a large biobank of over half a million people, we have several pairs of participants who appear to share their genome. As more individuals are sequenced, more pairs are likely to be found. If these are twins then this is great news, but it isn’t quite that simple. Objectives and Approach Where 2 people share a genome we need to be able to confirm that these pairs are twins. However, there are a number of issues which could cause 2 people to appear to share a genome; for example being recruited twice, donating blood on another’s behalf, etc. We already identify and exclude participant data based on these conditions. We developed our methodology by looking at the first identified pair in great detail, looking for evidence which specifically ruled out possible alternate explanations, and then applying and refining the method on later pairs. Results We were able to demonstrate the pair were almost certainly twins using their biochemistry and family questionnaire data as principal sources. We also identified a number of variables which were useful in indicating the likelihood of a twin, and now form part of a methodology which we are still developing. Even more usefully, we identified a number of variables that seemed like useful measures but proved extremely misleading. To date we have 26 pairs of possible twins, with 9 confirmed as twins and the remainder looking likely to be twins but falling short of a threshold for confidence. We also have 75 pairs which confirm duplicate participants we have already excluded. Conclusion/Implications We formed two lessons: even very simply linkages come with pitfalls, and you should gather more administrative data than you think. We’re proposing the collection of additional familial relationship data in our third resurvey. We are also looking into machine learning and statistical techniques to better identify twins and duplicates.

Introduction We have a large cohort study of half a million people, which continually incorporates new data through health insurance, centre for disease control records, death certificates, resurveys, and ongoing quality assurance and participant information updates. To support our researchers we need data which is correct, up-to-date, and unchanging. Objectives and Approach We must provide the new data, fixes and corrections to researchers, without missing anything or introducing issues. We make sequential iterations of our data available to researchers on a biannual basis; allowing a static version that can be referenced with regards to earlier work and providing the newest version of the data for new work. Due to the very large size of the data/code base and the small size of the team managing it, delivering this without error is a struggle. To mitigate this we developed testing scripts which catch issues and flag for resolution prior to release to researchers. Results We currently have 32 tests which catch all known issues which occur during a rebuild. On any occasion where a new type of issue is encountered, tests which would catch that issue and related issues are developed. As a result our last few releases have gone far more smoothly, with few if any issues reported after a release and certainly no previously encountered issues! Examples of current tests include: detection of a failed health insurance import; that we have the same number of participants; failure to increment version number between releases; checking that disease numbers have not changed dramatically over the shared timeframe. Conclusion/Implications Producing multiple static releases is a good way to balance the needs of a researcher for both static and current data, but it does introduce opportunities for both human and computer errors. Mitigating this risk with automated testing is convenient and effective.

Summary: Background: China has high stroke rates despite the population being relatively lean. Uncertainty persists about the relevance of adiposity to risk of stroke types. We aimed to assess the associations of adiposity with incidence of stroke types and effect mediation by blood pressure in Chinese men and women. Methods: The China Kadoorie Biobank enrolled 512 891 adults aged 30–79 years from ten areas (five urban and five rural) during 2004–08. During a median 9 years (IQR 8–10) of follow-up, 32 448 strokes (about 90% confirmed by neuroimaging) were recorded among 489 301 participants without previous cardiovascular disease. Cox regression analysis was used to produce adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) for ischaemic stroke (n=25 210) and intracerebral haemorrhage (n=5380) associated with adiposity. Findings: Mean baseline body-mass index (BMI) was 23·6 kg/m2 (SD 3·2), and 331 723 (67·8%) participants had a BMI of less than 25 kg/m2. Throughout the range examined (mean 17·1 kg/m2 [SD 0·9] to 31·7 kg/m2 [2·0]), each 5 kg/m2 higher BMI was associated with 8·3 mm Hg (SE 0·04) higher systolic blood pressure. BMI was positively associated with ischaemic stroke, with an HR of 1·30 (95% CI 1·28–1·33 per 5 kg/m2 higher BMI), which was generally consistent with that predicted by equivalent differences in systolic blood pressure (1·25 [1·24–1·26]). The HR for intracerebral haemorrhage (1·11 [1·07–1·16] per 5 kg/m2 higher BMI) was less extreme, and much weaker than that predicted by the corresponding difference in systolic blood pressure (1·48 [1·46–1·50]). Other adiposity measures showed similar associations with stroke types. After adjustment for usual systolic blood pressure, the positive associations with ischaemic stroke were attenuated (1·05 [1·03–1·07] per 5 kg/m2 higher BMI); for intracerebral haemorrhage, they were reversed (0·73 [0·70–0·77]). High adiposity (BMI >23 kg/m2) accounted for 14·7% of total stroke (16·5% of ischaemic stroke and 6·7% of intracerebral haemorrhage). Interpretation: In Chinese adults, adiposity was strongly positively associated with ischaemic stroke, chiefly through its effect on blood pressure. For intracerebral haemorrhage, leanness, either per se or through some other factor (or factors), might increase risk, offsetting the protective effects of lower blood pressure. Funding: UK Wellcome Trust, UK Medical Research Council, British Heart Foundation, Cancer Research UK, Kadoorie Charitable Foundation, Chinese Ministry of Science and Technology, Chinese National Natural Science Foundation.

Summary: Background: The age-specific association between blood pressure and vascular disease has been studied mostly in high-income countries, and before the widespread use of brain imaging for diagnosis of the main stroke types (ischaemic stroke and intracerebral haemorrhage). We aimed to investigate this relationship among adults in China. Methods: 512 891 adults (59% women) aged 30–79 years were recruited into a prospective study from ten areas of China between June 25, 2004, and July 15, 2008. Participants attended assessment centres where they were interviewed about demographic and lifestyle characteristics, and their blood pressure, height, and weight were measured. Incident disease was identified through linkage to local mortality records, chronic disease registries, and claims to the national health insurance system. We used Cox regression analysis to produce adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) relating systolic blood pressure to disease incidence. HRs were corrected for regression dilution to estimate associations with long-term average (usual) systolic blood pressure. Findings: During a median follow-up of 9 years (IQR 8–10), there were 88 105 incident vascular and non-vascular chronic disease events (about 90% of strokes events were diagnosed using brain imaging). At ages 40–79 years (mean age at event 64 years [SD 9]), usual systolic blood pressure was continuously and positively associated with incident major vascular disease throughout the range 120–180 mm Hg: each 10 mm Hg higher usual systolic blood pressure was associated with an approximately 30% higher risk of ischaemic heart disease (HR 1·31 [95% CI 1·28–1·34]) and ischaemic stroke (1·30 [1·29–1·31]), but the association with intracerebral haemorrhage was about twice as steep (1·68 [1·65–1·71]). HRs for vascular disease were twice as steep at ages 40–49 years than at ages 70–79 years. Usual systolic blood pressure was also positively associated with incident chronic kidney disease (1·40 [1·35–1·44]) and diabetes (1·14 [1·12–1·15]). About half of all vascular deaths in China were attributable to elevated blood pressure (ie, systolic blood pressure >120 mm Hg), accounting for approximately 1 million deaths (

Summary: Background: In developed countries, smoking is associated with increased risk of diabetes. Little is known about the association in China, where cigarette consumption has increased (first in urban, then in rural areas) relatively recently. Moreover, uncertainty remains about the effect of smoking cessation on diabetes in China and elsewhere. We aimed to assess the associations of smoking and smoking cessation with risk of incident diabetes among Chinese adults. Methods: The prospective China Kadoorie Biobank enrolled 512 891 adults (59% women) aged 30–79 years during 2004–08 from ten diverse areas (five urban and five rural) across China. Participants were interviewed at study assessment clinics, underwent physical measurements, and had a non-fasting blood sample taken. Participants were separated into four categories according to smoking history: never-smokers, ever-regular smokers, ex-smokers, and occasional smokers. Incident diabetes cases were identified through linkage with diabetes surveillance systems, the national health insurance system, and death registries. All analyses were done separately in men and women and Cox regression was used to yield adjusted hazards ratios (HRs) for diabetes associated with smoking. Findings: 68% (n=134 975) of men ever smoked regularly compared with 3% (n=7811) of women. During 9 years' follow-up, 13 652 new-onset diabetes cases were recorded among 482 589 participants without previous diabetes. Among urban men, smokers had an adjusted HR of 1·18 (95% CI 1·12–1·25) for diabetes. HRs increased with younger age at first smoking regularly (1·12, 1·20, and 1·27 at ≥25 years, 20–24 years, and

Background A Regional Medical Campus (RMC) is a medical school campus separate from the main medical school at which a portion of preclinical or clinical training of medical students is carried out. The College of Community Health Sciences of The University of Alabama in Tuscaloosa, Alabama is the Tuscaloosa Regional Campus of the University of Alabama School of Medicine (UASOM). The question we sought to answer with this study is whether or not regional campuses produce general surgeons. Design, Setting and Participants Publicly available data for 6271 graduates of the University of Alabama School of Medicine from the Birmingham, Tuscaloosa and Huntsville campuses from 1974 to 2015 was obtained by using Google Search Engine. The list was expanded to include the data described by the variables in Table 1. Results Between 1974 and 2015, 789 graduates of the University of Alabama School of Medicine assigned to the Birmingham, Tuscaloosa and Huntsville Campuses matched into Categorical Surgery. All three campuses matched similar percentages of students ranging from 10.4% to 13.3% (Table 2). The main campus at Birmingham matched 599 medical students into general surgery and 202 practice general surgery. The Tuscaloosa Regional Campus matched 88 medical students into general surgery and 47 practice general surgery. The Huntsville Regional Campus matched 103 medical students into general surgery and 41 practice general surgery (Table 2). Conclusions A comparable percentage of medical students at each campus matched into general surgery. The main campus contributed a larger absolute number of practicing general surgeons while regional medical campuses contributed a higher percentage of practicing general surgeons. Regional medical campuses contribute significantly to the deficit of general surgeons in this country.

ABSTRACT Objectives In our Chinese biobank of half a million people, we use data gathered from health insurance agencies to supplement our follow-up. We have 217,000 participants with insurance records including a breakdown of what the insurance paid for, totalling 1.6 million insurance records and 60 million chargeable items. The objective was to find ways of using this information to enhance our Electronic Health Records (EHRs) by adding usable and reliable treatment data, as a basis for future research. Approach Machine translations of every charge description were produced so that early investigation could be done by analysts who were not Chinese speakers. Key phrases were produced by specialist clinicians in an iterative process. We began by focussing on haemodialysis treated ESRD, heart failure, and coronary revascularisation. With our refined techniques, key phrase searches were developed which could be tied into ongoing validation procedures elsewhere in the study (e.g. cancer) or which could be validated using existing data from other sources (e.g. death reporting). Results Machine translation provided both problems and unexpected solutions. While it could be inaccurate (‘Divine Comedy’, ‘semen’, ‘corpse cuisine’), more often than not it provided unexpected advantages, converting regional, archaic, or otherwise uncommon Chinese terms into the most common English equivalent. The majority of chargeable elements in our insurance records are not treatment data per se, but instead hospital fees, generic care, and records of tests without result data. This makes identification of relevant treatment data challenging. Targeted key phrase searches proved successful, demonstrating that it was possible to use this data to answer research questions, even teasing out details which would otherwise not be available to us (e.g. ESRD, location and type of revascularisation). Validation of these findings is ongoing. For example, we found that 395 of our participants have been charged for ‘corpse cuisine’ (more accurately ‘corpse preparation’). Comparing these figures to our death records (an independently gathered source) we confirmed that 326 are known to be dead, and we added the remaining 69 to our list for active follow-up. Similarly, will we be seeking hospital records for the 528 patients who are receiving cancer treatment with no record of cancer. Conclusion Our methods for dealing with treatment data are still being refined, but early results are looking promising. We are investigating standardisation to ICD-10-PCS codes, developing more treatment-based diagnoses, and feeding our findings back into our ongoing validation program.

Background and purpose Previous studies, mostly focusing on the European population, have reported polygenic risk scores (PRSs) might achieve risk stratification of stroke. We aimed to examine the association strengths of PRSs with risks of stroke and its subtypes in the Chinese population.Methods Participants with genome-wide genotypic data in China Kadoorie Biobank were split into a potential training set (n=22 191) and a population-based testing set (n=72 150). Four previously developed PRSs were included, and new PRSs for stroke and its subtypes were developed. The PRSs showing the strongest association with risks of stroke or its subtypes in the training set were further evaluated in the testing set. Cox proportional hazards regression models were used to estimate the association strengths of different PRSs with risks of stroke and its subtypes (ischaemic stroke (IS), intracerebral haemorrhage (ICH) and subarachnoid haemorrhage (SAH)).Results In the testing set, during 872 919 person-years of follow-up, 8514 incident stroke events were documented. The PRSs of any stroke (AS) and IS were both positively associated with risks of AS, IS and ICH (p