1. A data augmentation strategy for deep neural networks with application to epidemic modelling
- Author
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Awais, Muhammad, Ali, Abu Sayfan, Dimarco, Giacomo, Ferrarese, Federica, and Pareschi, Lorenzo
- Subjects
Mathematics - Numerical Analysis ,Computer Science - Machine Learning ,Physics - Physics and Society ,Quantitative Biology - Populations and Evolution ,Statistics - Machine Learning - Abstract
In this work, we integrate the predictive capabilities of compartmental disease dynamics models with machine learning ability to analyze complex, high-dimensional data and uncover patterns that conventional models may overlook. Specifically, we present a proof of concept demonstrating the application of data-driven methods and deep neural networks to a recently introduced SIR-type model with social features, including a saturated incidence rate, to improve epidemic prediction and forecasting. Our results show that a robust data augmentation strategy trough suitable data-driven models can improve the reliability of Feed-Forward Neural Networks (FNNs) and Nonlinear Autoregressive Networks (NARs), making them viable alternatives to Physics-Informed Neural Networks (PINNs). This approach enhances the ability to handle nonlinear dynamics and offers scalable, data-driven solutions for epidemic forecasting, prioritizing predictive accuracy over the constraints of physics-based models. Numerical simulations of the post-lockdown phase of the COVID-19 epidemic in Italy and Spain validate our methodology.
- Published
- 2025