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China's economic reforms, which began in 1978, resulted in remarkable income growth, and urban Chinese consumers have responded by dramatically increasing their consumption of meat, other livestock products and fruits and by decreasing consumption of grain-based foods. Economic prosperity, a growing openness to international markets, and domestic policy reforms have changed the food marketing environment for Chinese consumers and may have contributed to shifts in consumer food demand. The objective of this paper is to uncover evidence of structural change in food consumption among urban residents in China. Both parametric and nonparametric methods are used to test for structural change in aggregate household data from 1981 to 2004. The tests provided a reasonably clear picture of changing food consumption over the study period. En Chine, les reformes economiques amorcees en 1978 ont entraine une croissance remarquable du revenu a laquelle les consommateurs urbains chinois ont reagi en augmentant considerablement leur consommation de viande, d'autres produits d'elevage et de fruits et en diminuant leur consommation de produits alimentaires a base de cereales. La prosperiteeconomique, une ouverture croissante sur les marches internationaux et les reformes de la politique interieure ont modifie l'environnement commercial des produits alimentaires des consommateurs chinois et peuvent avoir contribuea modifier la demande des consommateurs pour des produits alimentaires. Le present article visait a recueillir des preuves de changement structurel dans la consommation alimentaire des citadins chinois. Nous avons utilise des methodes parametriques et non parametriques pour tester les changements structurels a partir de donnees agregees sur les foyers de 1981 a 2004. Les tests ont brosse un tableau assez clair de l'evolution de la consommation alimentaire au cours de la periode a l'etude.

Using urban survey data collected by the authors in 2001-2002, this paper analyzes demographics, cultural factors, and purchasing behaviors influencing the consumption of f resh milk, yogurt, ice cream, and powered milk in Beijing, Shanghai, and Guangzhou, China. Results from estimation of a double-hurdle model of consumption show that income and marketing channels are the key determinants of milk consumption levels; however, education, advertising, and convenience play a more important role in consumption of ot her dairy products. There is some evidence that milk powder, as a consumer good, may be becoming an inferior product in urban China. Finally, the survey data suggest that the growing sophistication of China's retail sector is influencing consumption of dairy products.

This paper synthesizes recent research and new empirical findings to build a more comprehensive understanding of developments in China’s dairy sector. China’s tremendous rise in dairy demand has been driven by several mutually reinforcing factors: including rapid income growth, promotion by the government and dairy industry, changes in urban lifestyles, and the development of new, more sophisticated marketing channels. Domestic milk output has grown to satisfy rising demand largely by increasing the dairy herd. Substantial increases in productivity have been achieved through technology adoption, but there is evidence that the torrid growth has created inefficiencies because adaptations to marketing rules, infrastructure, and institutions have not kept pace with the changing environment. These results suggest there is ample room for future growth in both domestic milk production and dairy demand, but multinational firms and imported products will likely play and increasing role as China’s dairy market continues to develop. 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The overall goal of this study is to better understand food-away-from-home (FAFH) consumption in urban China. We use national statistical sources and our own data to examine the trends in FAFH during the late reform period and to analyze the determinants of FAFH demand, examining how different groups of consumers have participated in this new area of consumption. Besides the normal Tobit model for total food expenditure away from home, a system of multivariate Tobit equations was estimated simultaneously for three categories of foods consumed outside of the home. The results show that the rapid increase of FAFH demand, a rise that is fueled by higher incomes, is changing consumption patterns in China's post-reform urban economy. We also use our findings to illustrate how omission of accounting for FAFH trends by China's official statisticians has affected the reported trends in national meat supply and demand statistics.

Herbicide-resistant (HR) rice varieties offer U.S. rice producers a powerful tool for control of red rice infestations. However, improved weed control can shorten crop rotations and boost yields, resulting in expanded rice production and lower domestic market prices. Declining market returns diminish the benefits of HR rice adoption and substantially reduce net returns for nonadopters. More competitive prices increase U.S. rice exports, causing a slight decline in world rice prices. The dependence of the rice marketing loan program on world prices prevents loan deficiency payments from adequately offsetting producers' market revenue losses. U.S. consumers gain from lower rice prices.

We analyze the impact of China's accession to the World Trade Organization on major crop and livestock markets using the Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute (FAPRI) modeling framework. We incorporate expected changes in consumer income, textile production, and trade policies as exogenous shocks to the baseline model. Following accession, revenues decline in China's livestock, grain, and oilseed industries, while cotton production prospers despite increased imports. Chinese consumers benefit from lower food prices, with vegetable oil, dairy, and meat consumption increasing significantly. Argentina, Brazil, Canada, the European Union, and the United States are the greatest beneficiaries from expanded agricultural trade with China. Copyright 2003, Oxford University Press.

Journal paper No. J-18684 of the Iowa Agriculture and Home Economics Experiment Station, Ames, Iowa, Project No. 3566, and supported by Hatch Act and State of Iowa funds. Using a world agricultural model, we analyze the impact on dairy markets of the Berlin Accord on the European Union (EU) Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) Reforms. We also investigate the consequences of enlargement of the EU to include the Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland for the same markets. We produce a market outlook up to 2010 for these two scenarios. The Berlin Accord induces lower EU milk and dairy prices. A change in relative prices between cheese and butter-skim milk powder (SMP) occurs after 2005 and induces an expansion of cheese production, consumption and exports at the expense of the butter–SMP sector. Accession of the three central and eastern European countries (CEECs) leads to a permanent but moderate decrease in EU prices of milk and dairy products. For the three acceding CEECs, domestic prices increase dramatically. Their final consumption of milk decreases and dairy product consumption drops considerably. The derived demand of milk in dairy production increases, however, because of the higher prices for dairy products, benefiting dairy producers in these CEECs. Dairy exports of the three acceding countries to the EU–15 increase by one to three orders of magnitude, despite building large inventories. The impact of accession on world markets is small. A l'aide d'un modele agricole a l'echelle mondiale, nous analysons l'impact des accords de Berlin sur la reforme de la Politique agricole commune (PAC) de l'Union Europeenne, en ce qui touche les marches laitiers. Nous examinons aussi les consequences eventuelles de l'elargissement de l'Union Europeenne a la Republique Tcheque, a la Hongrie et a la Pologne. Ces deux scenarios nous ont servi de base d‘elaboration de perspectives du marche jusqu'en 2010. Les accords de Berlin declenchent une hausse duprix du lait et desproduits laitiers dans l'UE. Selon nos predictions, on assiste apres 2005 a un changement du prix relatif du fromage par rapport a celui de la poudre de lait ecreme (PLE). II s‘ensuit une expansion de la production et de la consommation et des exportations defromage aux depens du segment de la PLE. L'entree des trois pays de l'Europe, du centre et de l'est (PECE) conduit a une baisse permanente, encore que modeste, des prix du lait et des produits laitiers dans l'UE. Chez les trois nouveaux arrives, les prix interieurs grimpent de facon spectaculaire, ce qui entraine une chute de la consommation du lait particulierement de celle des produits laitiers transformes. En revanche, la demande de lait industriel augmente a cause des prix plus eleves des produits derives, ce qui profite aux producteurs laitiers des trois pays. Les exportations laitieres de ces pays augmentent de 1 a 3 ordres de grandeur, ce qui n'empeche pas la constitution de stocks importants. L'impact de l'accession sur leur marches mondiaux devrait etre de peu d'importance.

China's economic reforms, which began in 1978, resulted in remarkable income growth, and urban Chinese consumers have responded by dramatically increasing their consumption of meat, other livestock products, and fruits and by decreasing consumption of grain-based foods. Economic prosperity, a growing openness to international markets, and domestic policy reforms have changed the food marketing environment for Chinese consumers and may have contributed to shifts in consumer preferences. The objective of this paper is to uncover evidence of structural change in food consumption among urban residents in China. Both parametric and nonparametric methods are used to test for structural change in aggregate household data from 1981 to 2004. The tests provided a reasonably clear picture of changing food consumption over the study period.

We assess the international competitiveness of the dairy industries in Argentina and Chile, combining recent market intelligence gathered from field visits with quantitative simulations of global policy reform scenarios. Both countries exhibit strong potential for export growth but face significant internal and external barriers to expanding their dairy industries. Global policy reforms would resolve some of the international obstacles to their expansion. Argentina has great potential, but it is handicapped by its current macroeconomic policies, trade policy distortions, and the uncertainty associated with policy implementation. Chile is more limited in terms of natural capacity for expansion, but it has a positive trade and investment environment.

With the rapid growth in China's dairy industry, a number of recent papers have addressed either the supply or the demand trends for dairy products in China. None, however, presents a systematic explanation for the recent growth in both the supply and demand for dairy products. The goal of this paper is to sketch a more comprehensive picture of China's dairy sector and to assess the nature of the sector's development in the coming decades. Drawing upon several empirical studies, we examine the trends in dairy product consumption to create a composite picture of the factors underlying the recent growth. We also empirically investigate the sources of production gains in milk supply and assess the relative importance of expanding herd size, changes in the nature of production, technological change, and improvements in efficiency to the overall growth of milk production.

Following a historical agreement on the EU enlargement, 10 new member states (NMS) acceded to the European Union on May 1, 2004. Although the European Union has expanded its membership in the past, this enlargement is unique in terms of its scope and diversity of the countries, area, and population involved. Thus, the effects of the EU enlargement on current and future member countries and on world commodity markets require careful consideration as the European Union is a major player in these markets. We analyze the effects of the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) reform and enlargement on the EU-15, the NMS, and world agricultural markets. We compare three 10-year comprehensive agricultural outlook scenarios. In a "pre-enlargement" scenario, all pre-enlargement policies of the EU-15 are held in place and the 10 NMS maintain their independent economic policies and older technologies as if nothing happens. The second scenario considers the CAP reform in the EU-15. The third scenario is the 2004 Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute (FAPRI) baseline projection, which incorporates both the CAP reforms and accession of the 10 NMS with the associated domestic and trade policy reforms and some convergence in technology within the EU-25. With prices in most commodities in the acceding countries historically below EU-15 prices, accession leads to a moderate decrease in the EU-15 prices, whereas for the 10 NMS, domestic prices of many commodities increase substantially. Holding income levels constant, consumption levels of agricultural products in these countries decrease in most instances because of higher food prices, while production levels rise. The impact of the two reforms on world markets is moderate to negligible. The CAP reform has a moderate impact on the EU-15.

In this paper we use 2001-2002 urban survey data we collected to analyze demographics, cultural factors, and purchasing behaviors influencing the consumption of fresh milk, yogurt, ice cream, and powered milk in urban areas of China. The data include frequency of consumption by product, location of consumption and purchase, exposure to advertising and foreign culture, and school milk programs. The variables serve as regressors in a double-hurdle model that examines the decision to consume or not to consume and the level of consumption. We also estimate consumption levels and participation equations with tobit and probit models.

This report documents data and other information gathered from a survey of urban households in Beijing, Shanghai, and Guangzhou, China. The survey was conducted as part of a research project aimed at understanding the evolution of dairy markets in Asia and the implications for dairy product trade. The survey data provide insights into the purchasing behavior and attitudes of urban consumers in China with respect to dairy products. The report describes the survey and collection process, summarizes selected data from the survey, and provides anecdotal information about the development of dairy production, processing, and product marketing in China.

In an attempt to understand better Brazil's future role in agricultural markets, the authors of this report traveled to Brazil on a fact-finding mission in September 2003. The goal was to get a first-hand impression of Brazil's agricultural sector and especially its future potential. In this report we provide a general description of crop and livestock production, government policies, public and private cooperation, and transportation and biotechnology issues. The most striking observations made during our time in Brazil was the universal sense of optimism expressed by producers, government officials, agronomists, and market analysts about the future growth of Brazilian agricultural production. Does that mean Brazil, as one person suggested, is the future of modern agriculture? Our answer to that question depends on one's view of the future of global agriculture. Brazilian large-scale, commercially oriented, forward-looking operations are well suited to compete in commodity markets that are constantly driven to increase productivity and reduce costs. On the other hand, we observed factors within Brazil itself that have potential for creating tensions, which may ultimately force politicians to consider reforms that reduce production efficiency to achieve other social and environmental objectives.

The Uruguay Round Agreement on Agriculture (URAA) provided a continuing mandate for progressive reforms to liberalize world agricultural markets. A new round of negotiation was put into motion in early 2000 and later formalized in what is now called the Doha Round. The Doha Round negotiation follows the same principle laid out in the URAA, with the introduction of three reform anchors: market access, export competition, and reduction of domestic support. This paper specifies the new schedule of commitments for each member country under the proposed modalities and assesses the potential market impacts of these changes for world agricultural markets. We specifically focus on grains, oilseeds, sugar, cotton, livestock, poultry, and dairy markets.

This report documents data and other information gathered from a survey of rural households in China. The survey was conducted as part of a research project aimed at assessing the potential for meat and feed grain exports to China. Responses to the survey questions provide information about grain and livestock production practices, costs of production, animal inventories, and feeding practices. The report describes the survey and collection process, summarizes selected data from the survey, and provides anecdotal information about livestock production and marketing in Chongqing, Sichuan, Shandong, and Jilin provinces.

In response to a request from Senator Tom Harkin, the Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute (FAPRI) evaluated the effects of a uniform 10 percent reduction in program crop acreage in the United States. Specifically, FAPRI analyzed the effects on price, trade, consumption, and production in the eight program-crop markets and all related markets. FAPRI also investigated both the domestic and international implications of this reduction in U.S. planted area. In particular, FAPRI analyzed whether a decrease in U.S. production would be accommodated by a decrease in domestic use and inventories and corresponding changes in foreign production, use, and inventories.

The gradual liberalization of Chinese economic sectors and the associated growth in the income of Chinese consumers in recent years has created interest in how China will influence world agricultural markets should it decide to liberalize its food sector. Using Chinese agricultural and resources data and an adaptation of the Heckscher-Ohlin-Vanek international trade model, Hayes and Fuller project what Chinese trade, production, and consumption patters would be if China allowed the laws of comparative advantage to direct production and trade decisions. They show that today's Chinese agriculture is dramatically different from what would have evolved had it been open to trade and factor mobility. In particular, the use of capital is many times lower than it would otherwise be, and the use of labor is many times greater.

Using a world agricultural model, we analyze the impact on dairy markets of the Berlin Accord on the European Union (EU) Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) Reforms. We also investigate the consequences of enlargement of the EU to include the Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland for the same markets. We produce a market outlook up to 2010 for these two scenarios. The Berlin Accord induces lower EU milk and dairy prices. A change in relative prices between cheese and butter-skim milk powder (SMP) occurs after 2005 and induces an expansion of cheese production, consumption and exports at the expense of the butter-SMP sector. Accession of the three central and eastern European countries (CEECs) leads to a permanent but moderate decrease in EU prices of milk and dairy products. For the three acceding CEECs, domestic prices increase dramatically. Their final consumption of milk decreases and dairy product consumption drops considerably. The derived demand of milk in dairy production increases, however, because of the higher prices for dairy products, benefiting dairy producers in these CEECs. Dairy exports of the three acceding countries to the EU-15 increase by one to three orders of magnitude, despite building large inventories. The impact of accession on world markets is small.

Using farm-level survey data from Turkey, the authors provide estimates of the price responsiveness of feed demand beef, dairy, and sheep producers. In addition, the authors assess the impact of feed quality on animal yields in the Turkish dairy cattle sector.

This paper briefly summarizes the impacts of the European Union's Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) reforms on the European agricultural sector and on international agricultural trade. Objectives of the CAP reform (as stated in EU Commission documents) are to ensure the environmental viability of European agriculture and to protect the livelihood of European farmers. An extensive Appendix provides data on the impact of Agenda 2000 on various commodities.

This report evaluates food security issues in Turkey. A country commodity model for Turkey was developed and connected with FAPRI world agricultural commodity price projections. The authors begin with a review of Turkey's macroeconomic and agricultural policies from 1960 to 1997. Then they outline a theoretical framework for the econometric model, explain the components of the analytical system, and present results of baseline and tariff reduction scenarios from the analytical system.

Economic reforms in China's agricultural sector initiated in the late 1970s led to rapid structural change in China's pork sector. Swine production units have declined in number but increased in size. Using household survey data from seven Chinese provinces, the authors estimate feed-grain demand by pork producers for three size categories: annual pork output of less than 200 kg; between 200 and 500 kg; and greater than 500 kg. Results indicate that households slaughtering a small number of pigs each year are less market-oriented than households slaughtering a greater number annually.

Recently, the Republic of Turkey passed a significant milestone on its road to becoming a full member of the European Union when the customs union agreement became effective. The agreement eliminates barriers to trade between Turkey and the EU in industrial goods and processed agricultural products. In 1997 the Turkish Sugar Corporation drafted a proposal to change Turkey's current sugar policies to coincide with the existing Common Agricultural Policy. This paper examines the impact of the proposed sugar regulation on Turkey's sugar production and trade.

Changes in China's food situation and trade behavior have important implications for U.S. agricultural exports. This report considers some of the trends in China's meat market. It also uses a partial equilibrium model of China's livestock and grain sectors to examine the impact of tariff reductions on Chinese pork and poultry imports. The results suggest that liberalization of China's pork and poultry markets will cause a relatively large change in world trade levels without causing any serious price disruptions, and that the United states is in a good position to capture most of the benefits of such a liberalization.

The FAPRI modeling system used for the analysis provides information about the impact of the European Union's (EU) proposed "Agenda 2000" Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) reforms on U.S. crops and livestock sectors, international trade balance, world prices, and on commodity supply and use in selected countries. The proposed CAP changes are intended to improve EU agricultural competitiveness and market orientation.

The recent ban on pork exports from Taiwan resulting from an outbreak of foot and mouth disease (FMD) in March 1997 will significantly alter future world trade patterns in pork. This study provides an in-depth analysis of the price and trade effects of this export ban. The analysis uses the Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute (FAPRI) model of world agricultural production and trade to simulate the removal of Taiwan's pork exports from world markets. The model enables examination of the interaction among pork, other meats, feed grains, and protein meal feeds.

The Export Enhancement Program (EEP) was initiated under the Food Security Act of 1985 to offset the adverse effects of unfair trade practices on U.S. exports and to support U.S. prices. More recently, EEP has been constrained by both GATT and the FAIR Act. This study measures the impacts of the elimination of the EEP on U.S. wheat exports and prices over the coming 10-year period. The commodity trade models at the Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute (FAPRI) are used to analyze the policy question.

The ability of China to continue satisfying its food requirements is a question with important ramifications for U.S. agricultural exports. This report documents the Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute (FAPRI) model of China's meat and egg sectors. The report begins with a brief description of China's trade patterns followed by a discussion of the model structure and the important parameter assumptions. It summarizes the procedure used to project feed grain demands, and concludes with suggestions for future model development.

Drought-Tolerant (DT) rice technology is a potential tool to improve productivity in regions with insufficient or variable water supply. The impacts of DT rice adoption are analysed using the Arkansas Global Rice Model to demonstrate that DT rice would benefit the early investors in developing and adopting DT varieties. Developing countries could take advantage of the technology if widespread adoption occurs. World rice prices would decrease substantially conferring a potential benefit to consumers. Producer welfare gains are small or negative, but overall impacts may result in increased food security in poor regions of the world.

The use of physiological measurements, heart rate and oral temperature, for evaluating a heat stress situation in an industrial plant is described. In contrast to evaluation of hot jobs by environmental measurements and subjective evaluation of metabolic rate, the technique used with the WBGT criteria, evaluation of heat strain by measurements of the individual's heart rate and oral temperature is simpler, less expensive, less restrictive and more protective. A description of the technique involved for an industrial job along with suggested heart rate recovery criteria are included.

With more than one-fifth of the world’s population and only 7% of the world’s arable land, China has the potential to become a major importer of land-intensive products such as feed grains. This development would be of particular interest to the United States and Canada, which together, have more than 17% of the world’s arable land but only 5% of the world’s population. 1 Per capita private consumption in China has been increasing at an average annual rate of 6.8% over the past decade. Given the low average income level in China, consumption of feedgrain-intensive products, such as meat, dairy products, and alcohol, can be expected to increase with continued income growth. These factors take on greater significance given the fact that China has applied to join the World Trade Organization and trade liberalization may soon occur. Use of grain-intensive products should increase if China liberalizes its agricultural markets, and China should eventually reverse the current trade situation and begin to import large quantities of feed grains and meats. The combination of these observations has stimulated interest in China’s agricultural data, and the research and policy prescriptions based on these data are greatly affected by the data’s quality. To understand why this is important, consider the following examples. Official Chinese (and U.S.) data show that per capita pork consumption in China is about 5 kilograms per person greater than it is in the United States. 2 If this is true, then it might be argued that Chinese pork consumption is reaching a saturation level. Alternatively, one might argue that the enormous increase in per capita pork consumption in the past several years implies a large expenditure elasticity. Any attempt to use this expenditure elasticity for projection of future meat demand in conjunction with strong growth in projected per capita income would imply a large percentage increase in consumption from a base that is already very high. Because feed grain consumption is directly dependent on livestock