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Neither vaccination nor natural infection result in long-lasting protection against SARS-COV-2 infection and transmission, but both reduce the risk of severe COVID-19. To generate insights into optimal vaccination strategies for prevention of severe COVID-19 in the population, we extended a Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Removed (SEIR) mathematical model to compare the impact of vaccines that are highly protective against severe COVID-19 but not against infection and transmission, with those that block SARS-CoV-2 infection. Our analysis shows that vaccination strategies focusing on the prevention of severe COVID-19 are more effective than those focusing on creating of herd immunity. Key uncertainties that would affect the choice of vaccination strategies are: (1) the duration of protection against severe disease, (2) the protection against severe disease from variants that escape vaccine-induced immunity, (3) the incidence of long-COVID and level of protection provided by the vaccine, and (4) the rate of serious adverse events following vaccination, stratified by demographic variables.

Background Quantifying changes in the levels of biological and cognitive markers prior to the clinical presentation of Alzheimer’s disease (AD) will provide a template for understanding the underlying aetiology of the clinical syndrome and, concomitantly, for improving early diagnosis, clinical trial recruitment and treatment assessment. This study aims to characterise continuous changes of such markers and determine their rate of change and temporal order throughout the AD continuum. Methods The methodology is founded on the development of stochastic models to estimate the expected time to reach different clinical disease states, for different risk groups, and synchronise short-term individual biomarker data onto a disease progression timeline. Twenty-seven markers are considered, including a range of cognitive scores, cerebrospinal (CSF) and plasma fluid proteins, and brain structural and molecular imaging measures. Data from 2014 participants in the Alzheimer’s Disease Neuroimaging Initiative database is utilised. Results The model suggests that detectable memory dysfunction could occur up to three decades prior to the onset of dementia due to AD (ADem). This is closely followed by changes in amyloid-β CSF levels and the first cognitive decline, as assessed by sensitive measures. Hippocampal atrophy could be observed as early as the initial amyloid-β accumulation. Brain hypometabolism starts later, about 14 years before onset, along with changes in the levels of total and phosphorylated tau proteins. Loss of functional abilities occurs rapidly around ADem onset. Neurofilament light is the only protein with notable early changes in plasma levels. The rate of change varies, with CSF, memory, amyloid PET and brain structural measures exhibiting the highest rate before the onset of ADem, followed by a decline. The probability of progressing to a more severe clinical state increases almost exponentially with age. In accordance with previous studies, the presence of apolipoprotein E4 alleles and amyloid-β accumulation can be associated with an increased risk of developing the disease, but their influence depends on age and clinical state. Conclusions Despite the limited longitudinal data at the individual level and the high variability observed in such data, the study elucidates the link between the long asynchronous pathophysiological processes and the preclinical and clinical stages of AD.

ObjectiveTo determine changes in the incidence of dementia between 1988 and 2015.MethodsThis analysis was performed in aggregated data from individuals >65 years of age in 7 population-based cohort studies in the United States and Europe from the Alzheimer Cohort Consortium. First, we calculated age- and sex-specific incidence rates for all-cause dementia, and then defined nonoverlapping 5-year epochs within each study to determine trends in incidence. Estimates of change per 10-year interval were pooled and results are presented combined and stratified by sex.ResultsOf 49,202 individuals, 4,253 (8.6%) developed dementia. The incidence rate of dementia increased with age, similarly for women and men, ranging from about 4 per 1,000 person-years in individuals aged 65–69 years to 65 per 1,000 person-years for those aged 85–89 years. The incidence rate of dementia declined by 13% per calendar decade (95% confidence interval [CI], 7%–19%), consistently across studies, and somewhat more pronouncedly in men than in women (24% [95% CI 14%–32%] vs 8% [0%–15%]).ConclusionThe incidence rate of dementia in Europe and North America has declined by 13% per decade over the past 25 years, consistently across studies. Incidence is similar for men and women, although declines were somewhat more profound in men. These observations call for sustained efforts to finding the causes for this decline, as well as determining their validity in geographically and ethnically diverse populations.

INTRODUCTION: We assessed the association of plasma neurofilament light chain (pNfL) with cognitive decline and neuroimaging markers, and investigated its potential relationship with the clinical progression to dementia due to Alzheimer’s disease (AD).METHODS: Individuals had evidence of amyloid beta accumulation. Linear and beta-regression models were developed to consider: i) the association between pNfL and cognition, ii) the association between the rate of change (ROC) of pNfL and that of imaging markers, iii) the temporal dynamics of pNfL before and after cognitive impairment as assessed by the Clinical Dementia Rating.RESULTS: Higher levels of pNfL were associated with declining cognition. The ROC of pNfL was associated with the ROC of ventricular, hippocampal and whole brain volumes, but not with PET amyloid. pNfL levels did not reflect the clinical progression of AD.DISCUSSION: pNfL is associated with cognitive decline and brain imaging markers. However, it is not specific to AD clinical diagnosis.

Chronological age alone is not a sufficient measure of the true physiological state of the body. The aims of the present study were to: (1) quantify biological age based on a physiological biomarker composite model; (2) and evaluate its association with death and age-related disease onset in the setting of an elderly population. Using structural equation modeling we computed biological age for 1699 individuals recruited from the first and second waves of the Rotterdam study. The algorithm included nine physiological parameters (c-reactive protein, creatinine, albumin, total cholesterol, cytomegalovirus optical density, urea nitrogen, alkaline phosphatase, forced expiratory volume and systolic blood pressure). We assessed the association between biological age, all-cause mortality, all-cause morbidity and specific age-related diseases over a median follow-up of 11 years. Biological age, compared to chronological age or the traditional biomarkers of age-related diseases, showed a stronger association with all-cause mortality (HR 1.15 vs. 1.13 and 1.10), all-cause morbidity (HR 1.06 vs. 1.05 and 1.03), stroke (HR 1.17 vs. 1.08 and 1.04), cancer (HR 1.07 vs. 1.04 and 1.02) and diabetes mellitus (HR 1.12 vs. 1.01 and 0.98). Individuals who were biologically younger exhibited a healthier life-style as reflected in their lower BMI (P < 0.001) and lower incidence of stroke (P < 0.001), cancer (P < 0.01) and diabetes mellitus (P = 0.02). Collectively, our findings suggest that biological age based on the biomarker composite model of nine physiological parameters is a useful construct to assess individuals 65 years and older at increased risk for specific age-related diseases.

Background The COVID-19 pandemic remains a significant global threat. However, despite urgent need, there remains uncertainty surrounding best practices for pharmaceutical interventions to treat COVID-19. In particular, conflicting evidence has emerged surrounding the use of hydroxychloroquine and azithromycin, alone or in combination, for COVID-19. The COVID-19 Evidence Accelerator convened by the Reagan-Udall Foundation for the FDA, in collaboration with Friends of Cancer Research, assembled experts from the health systems research, regulatory science, data science, and epidemiology to participate in a large parallel analysis of different data sets to further explore the effectiveness of these treatments. Methods Electronic health record (EHR) and claims data were extracted from seven separate databases. Parallel analyses were undertaken on data extracted from each source. Each analysis examined time to mortality in hospitalized patients treated with hydroxychloroquine, azithromycin, and the two in combination as compared to patients not treated with either drug. Cox proportional hazards models were used, and propensity score methods were undertaken to adjust for confounding. Frequencies of adverse events in each treatment group were also examined. Results Neither hydroxychloroquine nor azithromycin, alone or in combination, were significantly associated with time to mortality among hospitalized COVID-19 patients. No treatment groups appeared to have an elevated risk of adverse events. Conclusion Administration of hydroxychloroquine, azithromycin, and their combination appeared to have no effect on time to mortality in hospitalized COVID-19 patients. Continued research is needed to clarify best practices surrounding treatment of COVID-19.

CSF biomarkers, including total-tau, neurofilament light chain (NfL) and amyloid-β, are increasingly being used to define and stage Alzheimer’s disease. These biomarkers can be measured more quickly and less invasively in plasma and may provide important information for early diagnosis of Alzheimer’s disease. We used stored plasma samples and clinical data obtained from 4444 non-demented participants in the Rotterdam study at baseline (between 2002 and 2005) and during follow-up until January 2016. Plasma concentrations of total-tau, NfL, amyloid-β40 and amyloid-β42 were measured using the Simoa NF-light® and N3PA assays. Associations between biomarker plasma levels and incident all-cause and Alzheimer’s disease dementia during follow-up were assessed using Cox proportional-hazard regression models adjusted for age, sex, education, cardiovascular risk factors and APOE ε4 status. Moreover, biomarker plasma levels and rates of change over time of participants who developed Alzheimer’s disease dementia during follow-up were compared with age and sex-matched dementia-free control subjects. During up to 14 years follow-up, 549 participants developed dementia, including 374 cases with Alzheimer’s disease dementia. A log2 higher baseline amyloid-β42 plasma level was associated with a lower risk of developing all-cause or Alzheimer’s disease dementia, adjusted hazard ratio (HR) 0.61 [95% confidence interval (CI), 0.47–0.78; P

Item does not contain fulltext INTRODUCTION: Inflammatory markers are often elevated in patients with dementia, including Alzheimer's disease (AD). However, it remains unclear whether inflammatory markers are associated with the risk of developing dementia. METHODS: We searched PubMed, Embase, and Cochrane library for prospective population-based studies reporting associations between inflammatory markers and all-cause dementia or AD. We used random effects meta-analyses to obtain pooled hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals of inflammatory markers (highest vs. lowest quantile) for all-cause dementia and AD. RESULTS: Fifteen articles from 13 studies in six countries reported data that could be meta-analyzed. C-reactive protein (HR = 1.37 [1.05; 1.78]), interleukin-6 (HR = 1.40 [1.13; 1.73]), alpha1-antichymotrypsin (HR = 1.54 [1.14; 2.80]), lipoprotein-associated phospholipase A2 activity (HR = 1.40 [1.03; 1.90]), and fibrinogen were each associated with all-cause dementia, but neither was significantly associated with AD. DISCUSSION: Several inflammatory markers are associated with an increased risk of all-cause dementia; however, these markers are not specific for AD. Whether inflammatory markers closely involved in AD pathology are associated with the risk of AD remains to be elucidated.

The elusive relationship between underlying pathology and clinical disease hampers diagnosis of Alzheimer’s disease (AD) and preventative intervention development. We seek to understand the relationship between two classical AD biomarkers, amyloid-β1−42 (Aβ1−42) and total-tau (t-tau), and define their trajectories across disease development, as defined by disease onset at diagnosis of mild cognitive impairment (MCI). Using longitudinal data from the Alzheimer’s Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI), we performed a correlation analysis of biomarkers CSF Aβ1−42 and t-tau, and longitudinal quantile analysis. Using a mixed effects model, with MCI onset as an anchor, we develop linear trajectories to describe the rate of change across disease development. These trajectories were extended through the incorporation of data from cognitively normal, healthy adults (aged 20–62 years) from the literature, to fit sigmoid curves by means of non-linear least squares estimators, to create curves encompassing the 50 years prior to MCI onset. A strong right-angled relationship between the biomarkers Aβ1-42 and t-tau is detected, implying a highly non-linear relationship. The rate of change of Aβ1-42 is correlated with the baseline concentration per quantile, reflecting a reduction in the rate of loss across disease within subjects. Regression models reveal significant amyloid loss relative to MCI onset (− 2.35 pg/mL/year), compared to minimal loss relative to AD onset (− 0.97 pg/mL/year). Tau accumulates consistently relative to MCI and AD onset, (2.05 pg/mL/year) and (2.46 pg/mL/year), respectively. The fitted amyloid curve shows peak loss of amyloid 8.06 years prior to MCI diagnosis, while t-tau exhibits peak accumulation 14.17 years following MCI diagnosis, with the upper limit not yet reached 30 years post diagnosis. Biomarker trajectories aid unbiased, objective assessment of disease progression. Quantitative trajectories are likely to be of use in clinical trial design, as they allow for a more detailed insight into the effectiveness of treatments designed to delay development of biological disease. Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (doi:10.1007/s10654-017-0326-z) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Alzheimer's disease (AD) is a progressive and fatal neurodegenerative disease, with no effective treatment or cure. A gold standard therapy would be treatment to slow or halt disease progression; however, knowledge of causation in the early stages of AD is very limited. In order to determine effective endpoints for possible therapies, a number of quantitative surrogate markers of disease progression have been suggested, including biochemical and imaging biomarkers. The dynamics of these various surrogate markers over time, particularly in relation to disease development, are, however, not well characterized. We reviewed the literature for studies that measured cerebrospinal fluid or plasma amyloid-β and tau, or took magnetic resonance image or fluorodeoxyglucose/Pittsburgh compound B-positron electron tomography scans, in longitudinal cohort studies. We summarized the properties of the major cohort studies in various countries, commonly used diagnosis methods and study designs. We have concluded that additional studies with repeat measures over time in a representative population cohort are needed to address the gap in knowledge of AD progression. Based on our analysis, we suggest directions in which research could move in order to advance our understanding of this complex disease, including repeat biomarker measurements, standardization and increased sample sizes.

The 2018 National Institute on Aging and the Alzheimer's Association (NIA-AA) research framework recently redefined Alzheimer's disease (AD) as a biological construct, based on in vivo biomarkers reflecting key neuropathologic features. Combinations of normal/abnormal levels of three biomarker categories, based on single thresholds, form the AD signature profile that defines the biological disease state as a continuum, independent of clinical symptomatology. While single thresholds may be useful in defining the biological signature profile, we provide evidence that their use in studies with cognitive outcomes merits further consideration. Using data from the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative with a focus on cortical amyloid binding, we discuss the limitations of applying the biological definition of disease status as a tool to define the increased likelihood of the onset of the Alzheimer's clinical syndrome and the effects that this may have on trial study design. We also suggest potential research objectives going forward and what the related data requirements would be.

e15156 Background: Clinical trials show improved survival for advanced non-small cell lung cancer (aNSCLC) patients whose tumors are positive for PD-L1 expression when treated with immune checkpoint inhibitors (ICI), including pembrolizumab (Pb) and nivolumab (Nb). It is unclear whether relatively higher PD-L1 expression by tumor proportion score (TPS) is associated with better response to treatment, and whether this can be generalized to a real-world setting. Methods: We assessed overall survival (OS) across categories of PD-L1 expression levels among aNSCLC patients who received ICI monotherapy in the advanced/metastatic setting (stages IIIB or IV, or documented metastatic disease at diagnosis). Sub-analyses were performed based on first, second, or subsequent lines of treatment, as well as for patients receiving only Pb. The patient population is a sample from community health systems based in the United States, with data derived from electronic medical records and supplemented with molecular data integration from diagnostics labs. Results: 874 aNSCLC patients received ICI in the advanced/metastatic setting in the first line (n = 246, 28%), second line (n = 456, 52%), or third or later lines (n = 172, 20%). ICI-treated patients in any line with TPS of 1-49% (n = 148), 50-89% (n = 124), and 90-100% (n = 97) had OS of 6.9, 11.5, and 11.7 months, respectively. Pb-treated patients in any line with TPS of 1-49% (n = 38), 50-89% (n = 104), and 90-100% (n = 72) had OS of 5.5, 10.1, and 11.7 months, respectively. ICI-treated patients in the 1st line with TPS of 1-49% (n = 10), 50-89% (n = 80), and 90-100% (n = 59) had OS of 3.7, 8.0, and 7.4 months, respectively. Pb-treated patients in the first line with TPS of 1-49% (n = 7), 50-89% (n = 80), and 90-100% (n = 58) had OS of 3.7, 8.0, and 9.5 months, respectively. Conclusions: Results suggest OS benefit for real-world ICI-treated aNSCLC patients with PD-L1 TPS ≥50%, consistent with observations in clinical trials. The data further suggest additional benefits in the highest TPS category of 90-100% among Pb-treated patients, while the evidence is weaker for all ICI-treated patients, although comparisons did not reach statistical significance. A similar trend was seen in analyses of both patients treated in first-line only and in any line. Further analyses, to include comparison to clinical trial results, are warranted.

Despite the progressive nature of Alzheimer's disease and other dementias, it is observed that many individuals that are diagnosed with mild cognitive impairment (MCI) in one clinical assessment, may return back to normal cognition (CN) in a subsequent assessment. Less frequently, such 'back-transitions' are also observed in people that had already been diagnosed with later stages of dementia. In this study, an analysis was performed on two longitudinal cohort datasets provided by 1) the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI) and 2) the National Alzheimer's Coordinating Centre (NACC). The focus is on the observed improvement of individuals' clinical condition recorded in these datasets to explore potential associations with different factors. It is shown that, in both datasets, transitions from MCI to CN are significantly associated with younger age, better cognitive function, and the absence of ApoE ɛ4 alleles. Better cognitive function and in some cases the absence of ApoE ɛ4 alleles are also significantly associated with transitions from types of dementia to less severe clinical states. The effect of gender and education is not clear-cut in these datasets, although highly educated people who reach MCI tend to be more likely to show an improvement in their clinical state. The potential effect of other factors such as changes in symptoms of depression is also discussed. Although improved clinical outcomes can be associated with many factors, better diagnostic tools are required to provide insight into whether such improvements are a result of misdiagnosis, and if they are not, whether they are linked to improvements in the underlying neuropathological condition.

Supplemental Digital Content is Available in the Text., Background: An increasing number of HIV-positive individuals now start antiretroviral therapy (ART) with high CD4 cell counts. We investigated whether this makes restoration of CD4 and CD8 cell counts and the CD4:CD8 ratio during virologically suppressive ART to median levels seen in HIV-uninfected individuals more likely and whether restoration depends on gender, age, and other individual characteristics. Methods: We determined median and quartile reference values for CD4 and CD8 cell counts and their ratio using cross-sectional data from 2309 HIV-negative individuals. We used longitudinal measurements of 60,997 HIV-positive individuals from the Antiretroviral Therapy Cohort Collaboration in linear mixed-effects models. Results: When baseline CD4 cell counts were higher, higher long-term CD4 cell counts and CD4:CD8 ratios were reached. Highest long-term CD4 cell counts were observed in middle-aged individuals. During the first 2 years, median CD8 cell counts converged toward median reference values. However, changes were small thereafter and long-term CD8 cell count levels were higher than median reference values. Median 8-year CD8 cell counts were higher when ART was started with

To date, Alzheimer’s disease (AD) clinical trials have been largely unsuccessful. Failures have been attributed to a number of factors including ineffective drugs, inadequate targets, and poor trial design, of which the choice of endpoint is crucial. Using data from the Alzheimer’s Disease Neuroimaging Initiative, we have calculated the minimum detectable effect size (MDES) in change from baseline of a range of measures over time, and in different diagnostic groups along the AD development trajectory. The Functional Activities Questionnaire score had the smallest MDES for a single endpoint where an effect of 27% could be detected within 3 years in participants with Late Mild Cognitive Impairment (LMCI) at baseline, closely followed by the Clinical Dementia Rating Sum of Boxes (CDRSB) score at 28% after 2 years in the same group. Composite measures were even more successful than single endpoints with an MDES of 21% in 3 years. Using alternative cognitive, imaging, functional, or composite endpoints, and recruiting patients that have LMCI could improve the success rate of AD clinical trials. Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (10.1007/s10654-018-0381-0) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Background Here, we aimed to evaluate regional differences in all-cause, AIDS- and non-AIDS-related mortality in HIV-positive men and women started on combination antiretroviral therapy (cART) in Europe, Canada and the US. Methods The ART Cohort Collaboration (ART-CC) combines 19 cohorts of individuals started on cART in Europe and North America (NA). We analysed patients infected via injecting drug use (IDU) or heterosexual sex using Cox proportional hazards models. Results A total of 32,443 European (45.9% women), 1,162 (32.5% women) Canadian and 2,721 (15.5% women) US patients were included. In Europe and NA, women were younger, more likely to have acquired HIV heterosexually, be AIDS-free and have higher CD4+ T-cell counts and lower HIV-1 RNA at baseline. European women had lower rates of all-cause (adjusted hazard ratio: 0.76; 95% CI 0.68, 0.84) and non-AIDS mortality (0.67; 0.57, 0.78) than men, but AIDS-mortality rates were similar (0.90; 0.75, 1.09). Women had lower mortality due to non-AIDS infections (0.6 versus 1.3 per 1,000 person-years), liver diseases (0.4 versus 1.7), non-AIDS malignancies (0.6 versus 2.0) and cardiovascular diseases (0.6 versus 1.0). Between-sex differences in all-cause mortality were larger in heterosexuals (0.70; 0.61, 0.80) than in IDU (0.88; 0.73, 1.05; interaction P-value =0.043). No sex differences in all-cause mortality were found in Canada (hazard ratio women 1.13; 0.82, 1.56) or US (hazard ratio women 1.12; 0.79, 1.58). Conclusions The increasing importance of non-AIDS mortality is leading to emergent sex differences among HIV-positive patients in Europe, as in the general population. Despite the better clinical characteristics at cART initiation, women in NA had similar mortality to men.

Alzheimer’s disease (AD) is a neurodegenerativ e disorder characterised by a slow progres- sive deterioration of cognitive capacity. Drugs are urgently needed for the treatment of AD and unfortunately almost all clinical trials of AD drug candidates have failed or been discon- tinued to date. Mathematical, computational and statistical tools can be employed in the construction of clinical trial simulators to assist in the improvement of trial design and enhance the chances of success of potential new therapies. Based on the analysis of a set of clinical data provided by the Alzheimer’s Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI) we developed a simple stochastic mathematical model to simulate the development and pro- gression of Alzheimer’s in a longitudinal cohort study. We show how this modelling frame- work could be used to assess the effect and the chances of success of hypothetical treatments that are administered at different stages and delay disease development. We demonstrate that the detection of the true efficacy of an AD treatment can be very challeng- ing, even if the treatment is highly effective. An important reason behind the inability to detect signals of efficacy in a clinical trial in this therapy area could be the high between- and within-individual variability in the measuremen t of diagnostic markers and endpoints, which consequently results in the misdiagno sis of an individual’s disease state.

Item does not contain fulltext INTRODUCTION: Cerebral small vessel disease is increasingly linked to dementia. METHODS: We systematically searched Medline, Embase, and Cochrane databases for prospective population-based studies addressing associations of white matter hyperintensities, covert brain infarcts (i.e., clinically silent infarcts), and cerebral microbleeds with risk of all-dementia or Alzheimer's disease and performed meta-analyses. RESULTS: We identified 11 studies on white matter hyperintensities, covert brain infarcts, or cerebral microbleeds with risk of all-dementia or Alzheimer's disease. Pooled analyses showed an association of white matter hyperintensity volume and a borderline association of covert brain infarcts with risk of all-dementia (hazard ratio: 1.39 [95% confidence interval: 1.00; 1.94], N = 3913, and 1.47 [95% confidence interval: 0.97; 2.22], N = 8296). Microbleeds were not statistically significantly associated with an increased risk of all-dementia (hazard ratio: 1.25 [95% confidence interval: 0.66; 2.38], N = 8739). DISCUSSION: White matter hyperintensities are associated with an increased risk of all-dementia and Alzheimer's disease in the general population. However, studies are warranted to further determine the role of markers of cerebral small vessel disease in dementia.

The advent of effective combination antiretroviral therapy (ART) in 1996 resulted in fewer patients experiencing clinical events, so that some prognostic analyses of individual cohort studies of human immunodeficiency virus-infected individuals had low statistical power. Because of this, the Antiretroviral Therapy Cohort Collaboration (ART-CC) of HIV cohort studies in Europe and North America was established in 2000, with the aim of studying the prognosis for clinical events in acquired immune deficiency syndrome (AIDS) and the mortality of adult patients treated for HIV-1 infection. In 2002, the ART-CC collected data on more than 12,000 patients in 13 cohorts who had begun combination ART between 1995 and 2001. Subsequent updates took place in 2004, 2006, 2008, and 2010. The ART-CC data base now includes data on more than 70 000 patients participating in 19 cohorts who began treatment before the end of 2009. Data are collected on patient demographics (e.g. sex, age, assumed transmission group, race/ethnicity, geographical origin), HIV biomarkers (e.g. CD4 cell count, plasma viral load of HIV-1), ART regimen, dates and types of AIDS events, and dates and causes of death. In recent years, additional data on co-infections such as hepatitis C; risk factors such as smoking, alcohol and drug use; non-HIV biomarkers such as haemoglobin and liver enzymes; and adherence to ART have been collected whenever available. The data remain the property of the contributing cohorts, whose representatives manage the ART-CC via the steering committee of the Collaboration. External collaboration is welcomed. Details of contacts are given on the ART-CC website (www.art-cohort-collaboration.org).

Background: In HIV-negative patients, radiotherapy (RT) decreases CD4+ T-cell counts. We studied the effects of RT in HIV-1 positive patients. Methods: HIV-1 positive patients with a subsequent diagnosis of a solid tumor were selected from the Dutch national observational HIV cohort, Aids Therapy Evaluation in the Netherlands (ATHENA). The patients were grouped according to whether they had received RT or not. Primary endpoint of the study was the time from baseline to reaching CD4 cell counts higher than those at baseline. Kaplan-Meier estimates of the percentage of patients reaching the endpoint were calculated. Results: Ninety patients were included of whom 36 received RT and 54 did not. Median duration of RT was 46 [interquartile range (IQR) 30-63] days. Median first CD4 cell count after stopping RT was 150 (IQR 30-270) · 106/L lower compared with baseline. In 13 of the 36 patients receiving RT, CD4 cell counts recovered to baseline, after a median of 469 (IQR 345-595) days. In 35 of the 54 patients without RT, the CD4 cell count recovered to baseline or higher, after a median of 112 (IQR 42-182) days. After 3 years, in 39% of patients who had RT compared with 71% of patients without RT, CD4 cell counts recovered to baseline or higher (P , 0.0001). In a Cox regression adjusted for potential confounders, RT was associated with a longer (hazard ratio 0.29; 95% confidence interval 0.13 to 0.63) and combination antiretroviral therapy use with a shorter time to return to baseline [hazard ratio 2.46 (95% confidence interval 1.11 to 5.48)]. Conclusions: RT resulted in a significant and prolonged decrease in CD4 cell counts. Copyright

Background The short- and long-term effects of anti-hepatitis C treatment on mortality in the HIV–HCV-coinfected population have not been evaluated in observational cohorts. Such evaluations must use methods that allow for time-varying prognostic factors that both predict treatment and are affected by prior treatment. We aimed to study immunological changes in HIV–HCV-coinfected individuals during HCV treatment and to estimate the effect of HCV-treatment on mortality. Methods Patients were included if they were aged ≥16 years, were HIV–HCV-coinfected and were enrolled in the COHERE cohort. Data were pooled within COHERE in December 2009 in EuroCoord. Random-effects models were used to model immunological changes during HCV treatment. Marginal structural models were used to estimate the effect of HCV treatment on mortality, allowing for time-dependent confounders affected by prior treatment. Results In total, 780/6,433 (12%) HIV–HCV-coinfected patients initiated HCV treatment (interferon [IFN] and ribavirin n=692, IFN alone n=88). CD4+ T-cell counts decreased during the first 12 weeks of treatment ( PConclusions Despite its effect in reducing CD4+ T-cell counts, the effect of HCV treatment on mortality was in the direction of benefit and our results excluded a substantial increase in mortality. Such benefit may be related to a lower risk of liver-related death. New HCV treatment strategies might contribute to a further reduction in mortality.

Over the past 15 years, European cohorts and collaborations have played a key role in developing our understanding of HIV progression and the effects of antiretroviral therapy, enabling European expertise to contribute directly to the advances in patient diagnosis and management worldwide, and providing a continued surveillance mechanism for detection of emerging problems at a European level. These collaborations now form the foundation of EuroCoord, a Network of Excellence, recently funded by the European Commission’s 7th Framework Program for Health Research. EuroCoord currently comprises studies that jointly contain longitudinal data from almost 270,000 HIV-positive individuals across the European continent and beyond, both male and female, from neonates to geriatric populations, infected through sex between men, sex between men and women, injecting drug use, nosocomially and from mother to child, with and without coinfection with hepatitis viruses, of different ethnic and socio–economic backgrounds, f...

Background: Several studies reported an association between immunodeficiency and non-AIDS-defining diseases. We investigated whether nonstructured treatment interruptions and episodes of viremia during suppressive combination antiretroviral therapy were independently associated with non-AIDS diseases. Methods: Six thousand four hundred forty patients with viral suppression ( 400), and serious non-AIDS diseases (cardiovascular disease, chronic renal failure, liver fibrosis/cirrhosis) were investigated by including time-updated cumulative exposure to either viremia and interruptions or HIV RNA >400 copies per milliliter. Results: During 24,603 person-years, of which 88.5% occurred during viral suppression, 102 patients developed cardiovascular disease, 54 chronic renal failure, and 70 liver fibrosis/cirrhosis. Overall incidence of non-AIDS diseases ranged from 1.41 (95% confidence interval: 0.73 to 2.46) per 100 person-years for CD4 counts = 500 cells per cubic millimeter. Compared with viral suppression, high-level viremia was associated only with cardiovascular disease (relative hazard: 1.37, 1.04 to 1.81 per year longer), whereas interruptions and low-level viremia were not associated with non-AIDS diseases. Relative hazards for cumulative exposure to RNA >400 versus

Objectives: Viral blips may be an indication of poor adherence to antiretroviral treatment. This article studies how the variations of the definitions of viral blips and that of the choice of sampling frame in studies investigating viral blips may contribute to the uncertainty of the associations between viral blips and possible causes. Design: Mathematical modeling study allows us to study the impact of different sampling frames and different definitions of blips upon study results that are usually not feasible in clinical settings. Methods: Using a previously published mathematical model, scenarios of different drug adherence levels and viral blips, with different sampling frames, were modeled. Results: In the case of viral blips as a result of nonadherence to combinational antiretroviral therapy, rather than calculating the incidence of blips directly from the number of blips observed in a given period of time, it is better to report the proportion of observations in a given period of time that are >= 50 copies per milliliter. Therefore, as the denominator, the number of observations in a given period of time is important. However, the proportion of blips is not very informative on the drug adherence level. Conclusions: We should standardize definitions of viral blips and the choice of sampling frame and to report the proportion of observations of a given sampling frame in a given period of time that are >= 50 copies per milliliter, so that comparable data can be generated across different populations

We compared the efficacy of combination antiretroviral therapy (cART) of Antillean HIV-1-infected patients treated on the Caribbean island of Curaçao (CUR-AN) with Antillean (NL-AN), Surinam (NL-SUR), and Dutch (NL-NL) patients treated in The Netherlands. In total 2118 therapy-naive patients who started cART between January 2005 and August 2008 were included in the comparison. The CUR-AN patients initiated cART at a median CD4 cell count of 141 cells/mm(3) and 63% had counts below 200 cells/mm(3). Within 12 months of the start of cART 76% of the CUR-AN patients achieved viral suppression, defined as HIV-1 RNA plasma levels below 80 copies/ml. The percentage achieving viral suppression was higher in patients treated in The Netherlands (NL-AN = 87%, NL-SUR = 93%, and NL-NL = 96%). Lost to follow-up after 30 months of cART was 10% among CUR-AN patients and was higher than observed among patients treated in The Netherlands (NL-AN = 8%, NL-SUR = 3%, and NL-NL = 2%). A similar pattern was found for progression to AIDS and death (10% of CUR-AN vs. 5%, 6%, and 7% of NL-AN, NL-SUR, and NL-NL patients, respectively). Late start of cART and limited viral suppression after the start of cART determine the higher rate of disease progression to AIDS and death among Antillean patients treated in Curaçao. The high percentage of lost to follow-up may result in an underestimation of AIDS and AIDS-related death among HIV-1-infected Antilleans treated in Curaçao.

Background. The aim of this study was to investigate the association between immunodeficiency, viremia, and non-AIDS-defining malignancies (NADM). Methods. Patients starting combination antiretroviral therapy (cART) as of 1 January 1996 were selected from the AIDS Therapy Evaluation in the Netherlands (ATHENA) cohort. In Cox models, risk factors for NADM were investigated. These included age, sex, transmission route, smoking, alcohol abuse, prior AIDS diagnosis, duration of exposure to cART, and estimated duration of human immunodeficiency virus infection. CD4+ cell count and viral load (VL) were considered as time-updated variables and as measures of cumulative exposure to CD4+ cell counts of 50, >400, and >1000 copies/mL, respectively. Results. In a cohort of 11,459 patients, 236 NADMs were diagnosed; 102 were caused by infection, and 134 were attributable to other causes. Median CD41 cell count at NADM diagnosis was 340 cells/mm(3) (range, 210-540 cells/mm(3)). Median time to first NADM after starting cART was 5.0 years (range, 2.2-8.2 years). In multivariate models, cumulative exposure to CD41 cell counts,200 cells/mm(3) remained significant (hazard ratio [HR], 1.12; range, 1.03-1.22) for each additional year of exposure. In stratified analyses, cumulative exposure to CD41 cell counts,200 cells/mm(3) was associated with malignancies possibly caused by infection (HR, 1.16; range, 1.03-1.31]) but was not associated with other types of cancers. No significant effect of viremia was seen in either type of cancer. Conclusions. Cumulative exposure to CD41 cell counts

Objective: Heterozygosity for a 32 base pair deletion in the CCR5 gene (CCR5wt/Δ32) and the minor alleles of a single-nucleotide polymorphism in the HCP5 gene (rs2395029) and in the HLA-C gene region (−35HLA-C; rs9264942) has been associated with a lower viral load set point. Recent studies have shown that over calendar time, viral load set point has significantly increased at a population level. Here we studied whether this increase coincides with a fading impact of above-mentioned host genetic markers on HIV-1 control. Methods: We compared the association between viral load set point and HCP5 rs2395029, −35HLA-C rs9264942, and the CCR5wt/Δ32 genotype in HIV-1-infected individuals in the Netherlands who had seroconverted between 1982 and 2002 (pre-2003 seroconverters, n = 459) or between 2003 and 2009 (post-2003 seroconverters, n = 231). Results: Viral load set point in post-2003 seroconverters was significantly higher than in pre-2003 seroconverters (P = 4.5 × 10−5). The minor alleles for HCP5 rs2395029, −35HLA-C rs9264942 and CCR5wt/Δ32 had a similar prevalence in both groups and were all individually associated with a significantly lower viral load set point in pre-2003 seroconverters. In post-2003 seroconverters, this association was no longer observed for HCP5 rs2395029 and CCR5wt/Δ32. The association between viral load set point and HCP5 rs2395029 had significantly changed over time, whereas the change in impact of the CCR5wt/Δ32 genotype over calendar time was not independent from the other markers under study. Conclusion: The increased viral load set point at a population level coincides with a lost impact of certain host genetic factors on HIV-1 control.