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This technical report describes the dynamic causal modelling of mitigated epidemiological outcomes during the COVID-9 coronavirus outbreak in 2020. Dynamic causal modelling is a form of complex system modelling, which uses 'real world' timeseries to estimate the parameters of an underlying state space model using variational Bayesian procedures. Its key contribution—in an epidemiological setting—is to embed conventional models within a larger model of sociobehavioural responses—in a way that allows for (relatively assumption-free) forecasting. One advantage of using variational Bayes is that one can progressively optimise the model via Bayesian model selection: generally, the most likely models become more expressive as more data becomes available. This report summarises the model (on 6-Nov-20), eight months after the inception of dynamic causal modelling for COVID-19. This model—and its subsequent updates—is used to provide nowcasts and forecasts of latent behavioural and epidemiological variables as an open science resource. The current report describes the underlying model structure and the rationale for the variational procedures that underwrite Bayesian model selection. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Newly emerging infectious diseases, such as the coronavirus (COVID-19), create new challenges for public healthcare systems. Before effective treatments, countering the spread of these infections depends on mitigating, protective behaviours such as social distancing, respecting lockdown, wearing masks, frequent handwashing, travel restrictions, and vaccine acceptance. Previous work has shown that the enacting protective behaviours depends on beliefs about individual vulnerability, threat severity, and one's ability to engage in such protective actions. However, little is known about the genesis of these beliefs in response to an infectious disease epidemic, and the cognitive mechanisms that may link these beliefs to decision making. Active inference (AI) is a recent approach to behavioural modelling that integrates embodied perception, action, belief updating, and decision making. This approach provides a framework to understand the behaviour of agents in situations that require planning under uncertainty. It assumes that the brain infers the hidden states that cause sensations, predicts the perceptual feedback produced by adaptive actions, and chooses actions that minimize expected surprise in the future. In this paper, we present a computational account describing how individuals update their beliefs about the risks and thereby commit to protective behaviours. We show how perceived risks, beliefs about future states, sensory uncertainty, and outcomes under each policy can determine individual protective behaviours. We suggest that these mechanisms are crucial to assess how individuals cope with uncertainty during a pandemic, and we show the interest of these new perspectives for public health policies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We argue that the free-energy principle (FEP) can indeed be used to articulate a conception of the boundaries of cognitive systems that meets the desiderata of third-wave extended-mind research. We point out that Markov blankets under the FEP definitionally constitute the means through which internal and external states are coupled, and so do not isolate systems from their environment. We argue that the nested, multiscale boundaries of the FEP formulation are indeed plastic and open to re-negotiation. Finally, we appeal to the formulation of niche construction under the FEP to argue that the extension of cognitive boundaries in this formulation is both synchronic and diachronic. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper concerns the distributed intelligence or federated inference that emerges under belief-sharing among agents who share a common world—and world model. Imagine, for example, several animals keeping a lookout for predators. Their collective surveillance rests upon being able to communicate their beliefs—about what they see—among themselves. But, how is this possible? Here, we show how all the necessary components arise from minimising free energy. We use numerical studies to simulate the generation, acquisition and emergence of language in synthetic agents. Specifically, we consider inference, learning and selection as minimising the variational free energy of posterior (i.e., Bayesian) beliefs about the states, parameters and structure of generative models, respectively. The common theme—that attends these optimisation processes—is the selection of actions that minimise expected free energy, leading to active inference, learning and model selection (a.k.a., structure learning). We first illustrate the role of communication in resolving uncertainty about the latent states of a partially observed world, on which agents have complementary perspectives. We then consider the acquisition of the requisite language—entailed by a likelihood mapping from an agent's beliefs to their overt expression (e.g., speech)—showing that language can be transmitted across generations by active learning. Finally, we show that language is an emergent property of free energy minimisation, when agents operate within the same econiche. We conclude with a discussion of various perspectives on these phenomena; ranging from cultural niche construction, through federated learning, to the emergence of complexity in ensembles of self-organising systems. • Communication—and language in particular—is an emergent property of agents that seek evidence for generative models of their shared world. • Nested free energy minimising—evidence maximising—processes explain the emergence of language and its transmission over generations. • Reading these processes as inference integrates perspectives on communication; from generalised synchrony to cultural niche construction. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Bettinger, J. S., K. J. Friston. Conceptual Foundations of Physiological Regulation incorporating the Free Energy Principle & Self-Organized Criticality. NEUROSCI BIOBEHAV REV 23(x) 144-XXX, 2022. Since the late nineteen-nineties, the concept of homeostasis has been contextualized within a broader class of "allostatic" dynamics characterized by a wider-berth of causal factors including social, psychological and environmental entailments; the fundamental nature of integrated brain-body dynamics; plus the role of anticipatory, top-down constraints supplied by intrinsic regulatory models. Many of these evidentiary factors are integral in original descriptions of homeostasis; subsequently integrated; and/or cite more-general operating principles of self-organization. As a result, the concept of allostasis may be generalized to a larger category of variational systems in biology, engineering and physics in terms of advances in complex systems, statistical mechanics and dynamics involving heterogenous (hierarchical/heterarchical, modular) systems like brain-networks and the internal milieu. This paper offers a three-part treatment. 1) interpret "allostasis" to emphasize a variational and relational foundation of physiological stability; 2) adapt the role of allostasis as "stability through change" to include a "return to stability" and 3) reframe the model of homeostasis with a conceptual model of criticality that licenses the upgrade to variational dynamics. • Allostasis "allo" + "stasis" as "variational & relational stability" • Allostasis as "stability through change" return to stability (physiological resilience) • Regulatory physiological processing should also operate at/near critical phase transitions • Variational/relational stability of allostatic processing is associated with a Griffiths region • To minimize free energy is to self-organize internal states into a Griffiths regime [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Previous studies suggest that the practice of long-term (months to years) mindfulness meditation induces structural plasticity in gray matter. However, it remains unknown whether short-term (<30 days) mindfulness meditation in novices could induce similar structural changes. Our previous randomized controlled trials (RCTs) identified white matter changes surrounding the anterior cingulate cortex (ACC) and the posterior cingulate cortex (PCC) within 2 to 4 weeks, following 5-10 h of mindfulness training. Furthermore, these changes were correlated with emotional states in healthy adults. The PCC is a key hub in the functional anatomy implicated in meditation and other perspectival processes. In this longitudinal study using a randomized design, we therefore examined the effect of a 10 h of mindfulness training, the Integrative Body-Mind Training (IBMT) on gray matter volume of the PCC compared to an active control—relaxation training (RT). We found that brief IBMT increased ventral PCC volume and that baseline temperamental trait—an index of individual differences was associated with a reduction in training-induced gray matter increases. Our findings indicate that brief mindfulness meditation induces gray matter plasticity, suggesting that structural changes in ventral PCC—a key hub associated with self-awareness, emotion, cognition, and aging—may have important implications for protecting against mood-related disorders and aging-related cognitive declines. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Previous studies suggest that the practice of long-term (months to years) mindfulness meditation induces structural plasticity in gray matter. However, it remains unknown whether short-term (<30 days) mindfulness meditation in novices could induce similar structural changes. Our previous randomized controlled trials (RCTs) identified white matter changes surrounding the anterior cingulate cortex (ACC) and the posterior cingulate cortex (PCC) within 2 to 4 weeks, following 5-10 h of mindfulness training. Furthermore, these changes were correlated with emotional states in healthy adults. The PCC is a key hub in the functional anatomy implicated in meditation and other perspectival processes. In this longitudinal study using a randomized design, we therefore examined the effect of a 10 h of mindfulness training, the Integrative Body-Mind Training (IBMT) on gray matter volume of the PCC compared to an active control—relaxation training (RT). We found that brief IBMT increased ventral PCC volume and that baseline temperamental trait—an index of individual differences was associated with a reduction in training-induced gray matter increases. Our findings indicate that brief mindfulness meditation induces gray matter plasticity, suggesting that structural changes in ventral PCC—a key hub associated with self-awareness, emotion, cognition, and aging—may have important implications for protecting against mood-related disorders and aging-related cognitive declines. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• New (hierarchical) generative model for linguistic interactions. • Builds on active inference formulations of dyadic interactions. • We simulate agents that ask and answer questions together. • Theta-gamma coupling emerges from belief updating under this framework. This paper presents a biologically plausible generative model and inference scheme that is capable of simulating communication between synthetic subjects who talk to each other. Building on active inference formulations of dyadic interactions, we simulate linguistic exchange to explore generative models that support dialogues. These models employ high-order interactions among abstract (discrete) states in deep (hierarchical) models. The sequential nature of language processing mandates generative models with a particular factorial structure—necessary to accommodate the rich combinatorics of language. We illustrate linguistic communication by simulating a synthetic subject who can play the 'Twenty Questions' game. In this game, synthetic subjects take the role of the questioner or answerer, using the same generative model. This simulation setup is used to illustrate some key architectural points and demonstrate that many behavioural and neurophysiological correlates of linguistic communication emerge under variational (marginal) message passing, given the right kind of generative model. For example, we show that theta-gamma coupling is an emergent property of belief updating, when listening to another. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The theme of this special issue of the Journal of Abnormal Psychology is on predictive processing and how it can improve our fundamental understanding of neuropsychiatric disorders. Several articles focus on psychosis and demonstrate how the field of computational psychosis research has evolved and matured in recent years through the application of predictive processing theory. These articles suggest that whereas the computational mechanisms underlying psychosis may be complex, careful empirical and theoretical work-using more sophisticated models-can bridge gaps between previous results that appeared to be at odds while providing more explanatory power. There is a particular focus on processing hierarchies; defining which priors are maladaptive and at what stage of illness they become so; and finding compelling neurobiological correlates of computational processes. These articles provide a blueprint for future empirical work. This work-that is licensed theoretically by predictive processing-may improve our understanding of psychosis and its treatment and open new avenues for biomarker and therapeutic development. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2020 APA, all rights reserved). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The moment‐to‐moment focus of our mind's eye results from a complex interplay of voluntary and involuntary influences on attention. Previous neuroimaging studies suggest that the brain networks of voluntary versus involuntary attention can be segregated into a frontal‐versus‐parietal or a dorsal‐versus‐ventral partition—although recent work suggests that the dorsal network may be involved in both bottom‐up and top‐down attention. Research with nonhuman primates has provided evidence that a key distinction between top‐down and bottom‐up attention may be the direction of connectivity between frontal and parietal areas. Whereas typical fMRI connectivity analyses cannot disambiguate the direction of connections, dynamic causal modeling (DCM) can model directionality. Using DCM, we provide new evidence that directed connections within the dorsal attention network are differentially modulated for voluntary versus involuntary attention. These results suggest that the intraparietal sulcus exerts a baseline inhibitory effect on the frontal eye fields that is strengthened during exogenous orienting and attenuated during endogenous orienting. Furthermore, the attenuation from endogenous attention occurs even with salient peripheral cues when those cues are known to be counter predictive. Thus, directed connectivity between frontal and parietal regions of the dorsal attention network is highly influenced by the type of attention that is engaged. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Active inference is an approach to understanding behaviour that rests upon the idea that the brain uses an internal generative model to predict incoming sensory data. The fit between this model and data may be improved in two ways. The brain could optimise probabilistic beliefs about the variables in the generative model (i.e. perceptual inference). Alternatively, by acting on the world, it could change the sensory data, such that they are more consistent with the model. This implies a common objective function (variational free energy) for action and perception that scores the fit between an internal model and the world. We compare two free energy functionals for active inference in the framework of Markov decision processes. One of these is a functional of beliefs (i.e. probability distributions) about states and policies, but a function of observations, while the second is a functional of beliefs about all three. In the former (expected free energy), prior beliefs about outcomes are not part of the generative model (because they are absorbed into the prior over policies). Conversely, in the second (generalised free energy), priors over outcomes become an explicit component of the generative model. When using the free energy function, which is blind to future observations, we equip the generative model with a prior over policies that ensure preferred (i.e. priors over) outcomes are realised. In other words, if we expect to encounter a particular kind of outcome, this lends plausibility to those policies for which this outcome is a consequence. In addition, this formulation ensures that selected policies minimise uncertainty about future outcomes by minimising the free energy expected in the future. When using the free energy functional—that effectively treats future observations as hidden states—we show that policies are inferred or selected that realise prior preferences by minimising the free energy of future expectations. Interestingly, the form of posterior beliefs about policies (and associated belief updating) turns out to be identical under both formulations, but the quantities used to compute them are not. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The purpose of this review was to integrate leading paradigms in psychology and neuroscience with a theory of the embodied, situated human brain, called the Hierarchically Mechanistic Mind (HMM). The HMM describes the brain as a complex adaptive system that functions to minimize the entropy of our sensory and physical states via action-perception cycles generated by hierarchical neural dynamics. First, we review the extant literature on the hierarchical structure of the brain. Next, we derive the HMM from a broader evolutionary systems theory that explains neural structure and function in terms of dynamic interactions across four nested levels of biological causation (i.e., adaptation, phylogeny, ontogeny, and mechanism). We then describe how the HMM aligns with a global brain theory in neuroscience called the free-energy principle, leveraging this theory to mathematically formulate neural dynamics across hierarchical spatiotemporal scales. We conclude by exploring the implications of the HMM for psychological inquiry. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Predictive processing (e.g., predictive coding) is a predominant paradigm in cognitive neuroscience. This Primer considers the various levels of commitment neuroscientists have to the neuronal process theories that accompany the principles of predictive processing. Specifically, it reviews and contextualises a recent PLOS Biology study of alpha oscillations and travelling waves. We will see that alpha oscillations emerge naturally under the computational architectures implied by predictive coding-and may tell us something profound about recurrent message passing in brain hierarchies. Specifically, the bidirectional nature of forward and backward waves speaks to opportunities to understand attention and how it nuances bottom-up and top-down influences. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Many physiological and pathological changes in brain function manifest in eye-movement control. As such, assessment of oculomotion is an invaluable part of a clinical examination and affords a non-invasive window on several key aspects of neuronal computation. While oculomotion is often used to detect deficits of the sort associated with vascular or neoplastic events; subtler (e.g. pharmacological) effects on neuronal processing also induce oculomotor changes. We have previously framed oculomotor control as part of active vision, namely, a process of inference comprising two distinct but related challenges. The first is inferring where to look, and the second is inferring how to implement the selected action. In this paper, we draw from recent theoretical work on the neuromodulatory control of active inference. This allows us to simulate the sort of changes we would expect in oculomotor behaviour, following pharmacological enhancement or suppression of key neuromodulators—in terms of deciding where to look and the ensuing trajectory of the eye movement itself. We focus upon the influence of cholinergic and GABAergic agents on the speed of saccades, and consider dopaminergic and noradrenergic effects on more complex, memory-guided, behaviour. In principle, a computational approach to understanding the relationship between pharmacology and oculomotor behaviour affords the opportunity to estimate the influence of a given pharmaceutical upon neuronal function, and to use this to optimise therapeutic interventions on an individual basis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Knowing how another’s preferences relate to our own is a central aspect of everyday decision-making, yet how the brain performs this transformation is unclear. Here, we ask whether the putative role of the hippocampal–entorhinal system in transforming relative and absolute spatial coordinates during navigation extends to transformations in abstract decision spaces. During functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI), subjects learned a stranger’s preference for an everyday activity—relative to one of three personally known individuals—and subsequently decided how the stranger's preference relates to the other two individuals’ preferences. We observed entorhinal/subicular responses to the absolute distance between the ratings of the stranger and the familiar choice options. Notably, entorhinal/subicular signals were sensitive to which familiar individuals were being compared to the stranger. In contrast, striatal signals increased when accurately determining the ordinal position of choice options in relation to the stranger. Paralleling its role in navigation, these data implicate the entorhinal/subicular region in assimilating relatively coded knowledge within abstract metric spaces. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The locus coeruleus (LC) in the pons is the major source of noradrenaline (NA) in the brain. Two modes of LC firing have been associated with distinct cognitive states: changes in tonic rates of firing are correlated with global levels of arousal and behavioural flexibility, whilst phasic LC responses are evoked by salient stimuli. Here, we unify these two modes of firing by modelling the response of the LC as a correlate of a prediction error when inferring states for action planning under Active Inference (AI). We simulate a classic Go/No-go reward learning task and a three-arm ‘explore/exploit’ task and show that, if LC activity is considered to reflect the magnitude of high level ‘state-action’ prediction errors, then both tonic and phasic modes of firing are emergent features of belief updating. We also demonstrate that when contingencies change, AI agents can update their internal models more quickly by feeding back this state-action prediction error–reflected in LC firing and noradrenaline release–to optimise learning rate, enabling large adjustments over short timescales. We propose that such prediction errors are mediated by cortico-LC connections, whilst ascending input from LC to cortex modulates belief updating in anterior cingulate cortex (ACC). In short, we characterise the LC/ NA system within a general theory of brain function. In doing so, we show that contrasting, behaviour-dependent firing patterns are an emergent property of the LC that translates state-action prediction errors into an optimal balance between plasticity and stability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

To act upon the world, creatures must change continuous variables such as muscle length or chemical concentration. In contrast, decision making is an inherently discrete process, involving the selection among alternative courses of action. In this article, we consider the interface between the discrete and continuous processes that translate our decisions into movement in a Newtonian world—and how movement informs our decisions. We do so by appealing to active inference, with a special focus on the oculomotor system. Within this exemplar system, we argue that the superior colliculus is well placed to act as a discrete-continuous interface. Interestingly, when the neuronal computations within the superior colliculus are formulated in terms of active inference, we find that many aspects of its neuroanatomy emerge from the computations it must perform in this role. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper introduces an active inference formulation of planning and navigation. It illustrates how the exploitation-exploration dilemma is dissolved by acting to minimise uncertainty (i.e. expected surprise or free energy). We use simulations of a maze problem to illustrate how agents can solve quite complicated problems using context sensitive prior preferences to form subgoals. Our focus is on how epistemic behaviour—driven by novelty and the imperative to reduce uncertainty about the world—contextualises pragmatic or goal-directed behaviour. Using simulations, we illustrate the underlying process theory with synthetic behavioural and electrophysiological responses during exploration of a maze and subsequent navigation to a target location. An interesting phenomenon that emerged from the simulations was a putative distinction between ‘place cells’—that fire when a subgoal is reached—and ‘path cells’—that fire until a subgoal is reached. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

An editorial is presented on the work brings together advanced data analytics and theoretical neurobiology to paint a compelling and mechanistic picture of the disintegration of the psyche in schizophrenia. Topics include the conversational style to unpack the simplicity and importance of this work and cuts across emerging themes in schizophrenia research, and the clear evidence for aberrant belief updating in the kind of higher cognitive processing that people with schizophrenia.

Adversarial collaboration has been championed as the gold standard for resolving scientific disputes but has gained relatively limited traction in neuroscience and allied fields. In this perspective, we argue that adversarial collaborative research has been stymied by an overly restrictive concern with the falsification of scientific theories. We advocate instead for a more expansive view that frames adversarial collaboration in terms of Bayesian belief updating, model comparison, and evidence accumulation. This framework broadens the scope of adversarial collaboration to accommodate a wide range of informative (but not necessarily definitive) studies while affording the requisite formal tools to guide experimental design and data analysis in the adversarial setting. We provide worked examples that demonstrate how these tools can be deployed to score theoretical models in terms of a common metric of evidence, thereby furnishing a means of tracking the amount of empirical support garnered by competing theories over time. Corcoran et al. present a Bayesian treatment of adversarial collaboration that operationalizes competing theoretical hypotheses as generative models. This approach enables the evaluation of alternative theories in terms of the evidential support their models garner across (potentially disparate) experimental settings. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

How do we navigate a deeply structured world? Why are you reading this sentence first – and did you actually look at the fifth word? This review offers some answers by appealing to active inference based on deep temporal models. It builds on previous formulations of active inference to simulate behavioural and electrophysiological responses under hierarchical generative models of state transitions. Inverting these models corresponds to sequential inference, such that the state at any hierarchical level entails a sequence of transitions in the level below. The deep temporal aspect of these models means that evidence is accumulated over nested time scales, enabling inferences about narratives (i.e., temporal scenes). We illustrate this behaviour with Bayesian belief updating – and neuronal process theories – to simulate the epistemic foraging seen in reading. These simulations reproduce perisaccadic delay period activity and local field potentials seen empirically. Finally, we exploit the deep structure of these models to simulate responses to local (e.g., font type) and global (e.g., semantic) violations; reproducing mismatch negativity and P300 responses respectively. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Although the relationship between resting-state functional connectivity and task-related activity has been addressed, the relationship between task and resting-state directed or effective connectivity – and its behavioral concomitants – remains elusive. We evaluated effective connectivity under an N-back working memory task in 24 participants using stochastic dynamic causal modelling (DCM) of 7 T fMRI data. We repeated the analysis using resting-state data, from the same subjects, to model connectivity among the same brain regions engaged by the N-back task. This allowed us to: (i) examine the relationship between intrinsic (task-independent) effective connectivity during resting (A rest ) and task states (A task ), (ii) cluster phenotypes of task-related changes in effective connectivity (B task ) across participants, (iii) identify edges (B task ) showing high inter-individual effective connectivity differences and (iv) associate reaction times with the similarity between B task and A rest in these edges. We found a strong correlation between A rest and A task over subjects but a marked difference between B task and A rest . We further observed a strong clustering of individuals in terms of B task , which was not apparent in A rest . The task-related effective connectivity B task varied highly in the edges from the parietal to the frontal lobes across individuals, so the three groups were clustered mainly by the effective connectivity within these networks. The similarity between B task and A rest at the edges from the parietal to the frontal lobes was positively correlated with 2-back reaction times. This result implies that a greater change in context-sensitive coupling – from resting-state connectivity – is associated with faster reaction times. In summary, task-dependent connectivity endows resting-state connectivity with a context sensitivity, which predicts the speed of information processing during the N-back task. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article offers information on the cognitive consistency and active inference based on the psychology. The topics addressed include details on an epistemic and motivational Value in active inference and differences between the trivial and nontrivial inconsistencies, stating that trivial inconsistencies can be associated with belief updates about latent states of the world and nontrivial inconsistencies change beliefs about behavior.

Given that eye movement control can be framed as an inferential process, how are the requisite forces generated to produce anticipated or desired fixation? Starting from a generative model based on simple Newtonian equations of motion, we derive a variational solution to this problem and illustrate the plausibility of its implementation in the oculomotor brainstem. We show, through simulation, that the Bayesian filtering equations that implement ‘planning as inference’ can generate both saccadic and smooth pursuit eye movements. Crucially, the associated message passing maps well onto the known connectivity and neuroanatomy of the brainstem – and the changes in these messages over time are strikingly similar to single unit recordings of neurons in the corresponding nuclei. Furthermore, we show that simulated lesions to axonal pathways reproduce eye movement patterns of neurological patients with damage to these tracts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Predictive coding models, such as the ‘free-energy principle’ (FEP), have recently been discussed in relation to how interoceptive (afferent visceral feedback) signals update predictions about the state of the body, thereby driving autonomic mediation of homeostasis. This study appealed to ‘interoceptive inference’, under the FEP, to seek new insights into autonomic (dys)function and brain–body integration by examining the relationship between cardiac interoception and autonomic cardiac control in healthy controls and patients with forms of orthostatic intolerance (OI); to (i) seek empirical support for interoceptive inference and (ii) delineate if this relationship was sensitive to increased interoceptive prediction error in OI patients during head-up tilt (HUT)/symptom provocation. Measures of interoception and heart rate variability (HRV) were recorded whilst supine and during HUT in healthy controls (N = 20), postural tachycardia syndrome (PoTS, N = 20) and vasovagal syncope (VVS, N = 20) patients. Compared to controls, interoceptive accuracy was reduced in both OI groups. Healthy controls' interoceptive sensibility positively correlated with HRV whilst supine. Conversely, both OI groups' interoceptive awareness negatively correlated with HRV during HUT. Our pilot study offers initial support for interoceptive inference and suggests OI cohorts share a central pathophysiology underlying interoceptive deficits expressed across distinct cardiovascular autonomic pathophysiology. From a predictive coding perspective, OI patients' data indicates a failure to attenuate/modulate ascending interoceptive prediction errors, reinforced by the concomitant failure to engage autonomic reflexes during HUT. Our findings offer a potential framework for conceptualising how the human nervous system maintains homeostasis and how both central and autonomic processes are ultimately implicated in dysautonomia. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Many analysis methods exist to extract graphs of functional connectivity from neuronal networks. Confidence in the results is limited because, (i) different methods give different results, (ii) parameter setting directly influences the final result, and (iii) systematic evaluation of the results is not always performed. Here, we introduce MULAN (MULtiple method ANalysis), which assumes an ensemble based approach combining multiple analysis methods and fuzzy logic to extract graphs with the most probable structure. In order to reduce the dependency on parameter settings, we determine the best set of parameters using a genetic algorithm on simulated datasets, whose temporal structure is similar to the experimental one. After a validation step, the selected set of parameters is used to analyze experimental data. The final step cross-validates experimental subsets of data and provides a direct estimate of the most likely graph and our confidence in the proposed connectivity. A systematic evaluation validates our strategy against empirical stereotactic electroencephalography (SEEG) and functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) data. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The brain is thought to generate internal predictions to optimize behaviour. However, it is unclear whether predictions signalling is an automatic brain function or depends on task demands. Here, we manipulated the spatial/temporal predictability of visual targets, and the relevance of spatial/temporal information provided by auditory cues. We used magnetoencephalography (MEG) to measure participants’ brain activity during task performance. Task relevance modulated the influence of predictions on behaviour: spatial/temporal predictability improved spatial/temporal discrimination accuracy, but not vice versa. To explain these effects, we used behavioural responses to estimate subjective predictions under an ideal-observer model. Model-based time-series of predictions and prediction errors (PEs) were associated with dissociable neural responses: predictions correlated with cue-induced beta-band activity in auditory regions and alpha-band activity in visual regions, while stimulus-bound PEs correlated with gamma-band activity in posterior regions. Crucially, task relevance modulated these spectral correlates, suggesting that current goals influence PE and prediction signalling. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective Posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD) is associated with decreased top-down emotion modulation from medial prefrontal cortex (mPFC) regions, a pathophysiology accompanied by hyperarousal and hyperactivation of the amygdala. By contrast, PTSD patients with the dissociative subtype (PTSD + DS) often exhibit increased mPFC top-down modulation and decreased amygdala activation associated with emotional detachment and hypoarousal. Crucially, PTSD and PTSD + DS display distinct functional connectivity within the PFC, amygdala complexes, and the periaqueductal gray (PAG), a region related to defensive responses/emotional coping. However, differences in directed connectivity between these regions have not been established in PTSD, PTSD + DS, or controls. Methods: To examine directed (effective) connectivity among these nodes, as well as group differences, we conducted resting-state stochastic dynamic causal modeling (sDCM) pairwise analyses of coupling between the ventromedial (vm)PFC, the bilateral basolateral and centromedial (CMA) amygdala complexes, and the PAG, in 155 participants (PTSD [ n = 62]; PTSD + DS [ n = 41]; age-matched healthy trauma-unexposed controls [ n = 52]). Results: PTSD was characterized by a pattern of predominant bottom-up connectivity from the amygdala to the vmPFC and from the PAG to the vmPFC and amygdala. Conversely, PTSD + DS exhibited predominant top-down connectivity between all node pairs (from the vmPFC to the amygdala and PAG, and from the amygdala to the PAG). Interestingly, the PTSD + DS group displayed the strongest intrinsic inhibitory connections within the vmPFC. Conclusions: These results suggest the contrasting symptom profiles of PTSD and its dissociative subtype (hyper- vs. hypo-emotionality, respectively) may be driven by complementary changes in directed connectivity corresponding to bottom-up defensive fear processing versus enhanced top-down regulation. Hum Brain Mapp 38:5551-5561, 2017. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article offers a formal account of curiosity and insight in terms of active (Bayesian) inference. It deals with the dual problem of inferring states of the world and learning its statistical structure. In contrast to current trends in machine learning (e.g., deep learning), we focus on how people attain insight and understanding using just a handful of observations, which are solicited through curious behavior. We use simulations of abstract rule learning and approximate Bayesian inference to show that minimizing (expected) variational free energy leads to active sampling of novel contingencies. This epistemic behavior closes explanatory gaps in generative models of the world, thereby reducing uncertainty and satisfying curiosity. We then move from epistemic learning to model selection or structure learning to show how abductive processes emerge when agents test plausible hypotheses about symmetries (i.e., invariances or rules) in their generative models. The ensuing Bayesian model reduction evinces mechanisms associated with sleep and has all the hallmarks of "aha" moments. This formulation moves toward a computational account of consciousness in the pre-Cartesian sense of sharable knowledge (i.e., con: "together"; scire: "to know"). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

What we see is fundamentally dependent on where we look. Despite this seemingly obvious statement, many accounts of the neurobiology underpinning visual perception fail to consider the active nature of how we sample our sensory world. This review offers an overview of the neurobiology of visual perception, which begins with the control of saccadic eye movements. Starting from here, we can follow the anatomy backwards, to try to understand the functional architecture of neuronal networks that support the interrogation of a visual scene. Many of the principles encountered in this exercise are equally applicable to other perceptual modalities. For example, the somatosensory system, like the visual system, requires the sampling of data through mobile receptive epithelia. Analysis of a somatosensory scene depends on what is palpated, in much the same way that visual analysis relies on what is foveated. The discussion here is structured around the anatomical systems involved in active vision and visual scene construction, but will use these systems to introduce some general theoretical considerations. We will additionally highlight points of contact between the biology and the pathophysiology that has been proposed to cause a clinical disorder of scene construction – spatial hemineglect. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

How do we navigate a deeply structured world? Why are you reading this sentence first – and did you actually look at the fifth word? This review offers some answers by appealing to active inference based on deep temporal models. It builds on previous formulations of active inference to simulate behavioural and electrophysiological responses under hierarchical generative models of state transitions. Inverting these models corresponds to sequential inference, such that the state at any hierarchical level entails a sequence of transitions in the level below. The deep temporal aspect of these models means that evidence is accumulated over nested time scales, enabling inferences about narratives (i.e., temporal scenes). We illustrate this behaviour with Bayesian belief updating – and neuronal process theories – to simulate the epistemic foraging seen in reading. These simulations reproduce perisaccadic delay period activity and local field potentials seen empirically. Finally, we exploit the deep structure of these models to simulate responses to local (e.g., font type) and global (e.g., semantic) violations; reproducing mismatch negativity and P300 responses respectively. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Tinnitus is a common disorder that often complicates hearing loss. Its mechanisms are incompletely understood. Current theories proposing pathophysiology from the ear to the cortex cannot individually – or collectively – explain the range of experimental evidence available. We propose a new framework, based on predictive coding, in which spontaneous activity in the subcortical auditory pathway constitutes a ‘tinnitus precursor’ which is normally ignored as imprecise evidence against the prevailing percept of ‘silence’. Extant models feature as contributory mechanisms acting to increase either the intensity of the precursor or its precision. If precision (i.e., postsynaptic gain) rises sufficiently then tinnitus is perceived. Perpetuation arises through focused attention, which further increases the precision of the precursor, and resetting of the default prediction to expect tinnitus. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We review a recent shift in conceptions of interoception and its relationship to hierarchical inference in the brain. The notion of interoceptive inference means that bodily states are regulated by autonomic reflexes that are enslaved by descending predictions from deep generative models of our internal and external milieu. This re-conceptualization illuminates several issues in cognitive and clinical neuroscience with implications for experiences of selfhood and emotion. We first contextualize interoception in terms of active (Bayesian) inference in the brain, highlighting its enactivist (embodied) aspects. We then consider the key role of uncertainty or precision and how this might translate into neuromodulation. We next examine the implications for understanding the functional anatomy of the emotional brain, surveying recent observations on agranular cortex. Finally, we turn to theoretical issues, namely, the role of interoception in shaping a sense of embodied self and feelings. We will draw links between physiological homoeostasis and allostasis, early cybernetic ideas of predictive control and hierarchical generative models in predictive processing. The explanatory scope of interoceptive inference ranges from explanations for autism and depression, through to consciousness. We offer a brief survey of these exciting developments. This article is part of the themed issue 'Interoception beyond homeostasis: affect, cognition and mental health'. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The neural substrate of bodily ownership can be disclosed by the rubber hand illusion (RHI); namely, the illusory self-attribution of an artificial hand that is induced by synchronous tactile stimulation of the subject's hand that is hidden from view. Previous studies have pointed to the premotor cortex (PMC) as a pivotal area in such illusions. To investigate the effective connectivity between – and within – sensory and premotor areas involved in bodily perceptions, we used dynamic causal modeling of touch-evoked responses in 13 healthy subjects. Each subject's right hand was stroked while viewing their own hand (“REAL”), or an artificial hand presented in an anatomically plausible (“CONGRUENT”) or implausible (“INCONGRUENT”) position. Bayesian model comparison revealed strong evidence for a differential involvement of the PMC in the generation of touch-evoked responses under the three conditions, confirming a crucial role of PMC in bodily self-attribution. In brief, the extrinsic (forward) connection from left occipital cortex to left PMC was stronger for CONGRUENT and INCONGRUENT as compared to REAL, reflecting the augmentation of bottom-up visual input when multisensory integration is challenged. Crucially, intrinsic connectivity in the primary somatosensory cortex (S1) was attenuated in the CONGRUENT condition, during the illusory percept. These findings support predictive coding models of the functional architecture of multisensory integration (and attenuation) in bodily perceptual experience. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This technical report revisits the analysis of family‐wise error rates in statistical parametric mapping—using random field theory—reported in (Eklund et al. []: arXiv 1511.01863). Contrary to the understandable spin that these sorts of analyses attract, a review of their results suggests that they endorse the use of parametric assumptions—and random field theory—in the analysis of functional neuroimaging data. We briefly rehearse the advantages parametric analyses offer over nonparametric alternatives and then unpack the implications of (Eklund et al. []: arXiv 1511.01863) for parametric procedures. Hum Brain Mapp, 40:2052–2054, 2019. © 2017 The Authors Human Brain Mapping Published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Substantial evidence indicates that incentive value depends on an anticipation of rewards within a given context. However, the computations underlying this context sensitivity remain unknown. To address this question, we introduce a normative (Bayesian) account of how rewards map to incentive values. This assumes that the brain inverts a model of how rewards are generated. Key features of our account include (i) an influence of prior beliefs about the context in which rewards are delivered (weighted by their reliability in a Bayes-optimal fashion), (ii) the notion that incentive values correspond to precision-weighted prediction errors, (iii) and contextual information unfolding at different hierarchical levels. This formulation implies that incentive value is intrinsically context-dependent. We provide empirical support for this model by showing that incentive value is influenced by context variability and by hierarchically nested contexts. The perspective we introduce generates new empirical predictions that might help explaining psychopathologies, such as addiction. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This technical note describes some Bayesian procedures for the analysis of group studies that use nonlinear models at the first (within-subject) level – e.g., dynamic causal models – and linear models at subsequent (between-subject) levels. Its focus is on using Bayesian model reduction to finesse the inversion of multiple models of a single dataset or a single (hierarchical or empirical Bayes) model of multiple datasets. These applications of Bayesian model reduction allow one to consider parametric random effects and make inferences about group effects very efficiently (in a few seconds). We provide the relatively straightforward theoretical background to these procedures and illustrate their application using a worked example. This example uses a simulated mismatch negativity study of schizophrenia. We illustrate the robustness of Bayesian model reduction to violations of the (commonly used) Laplace assumption in dynamic causal modelling and show how its recursive application can facilitate both classical and Bayesian inference about group differences. Finally, we consider the application of these empirical Bayesian procedures to classification and prediction. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We would like to thank Dolega and Dewhurst (2015) for a thought-provoking and informed deconstruction of our article, which we take as (qualified) applause from valued members of our audience. In brief, we fully concur with the theatre-free formulation offered by Dolega and Dewhurst and take the opportunity to explain why (and how) we used the Cartesian theatre metaphor. We do this by drawing an analogy between consciousness and evolution. This analogy is used to emphasize the circular causality inherent in the free energy principle (aka active inference). We conclude with a comment on the special forms of active inference that may be associated with self-awareness and how they may be especially informed by dream states. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this technical note, we derive two MCMC (Markov chain Monte Carlo) samplers for dynamic causal models (DCMs). Specifically, we use (a) Hamiltonian MCMC (HMC-E) where sampling is simulated using Hamilton’s equation of motion and (b) Langevin Monte Carlo algorithm (LMC-R and LMC-E) that simulates the Langevin diffusion of samples using gradients either on a Euclidean (E) or on a Riemannian (R) manifold. While LMC-R requires minimal tuning, the implementation of HMC-E is heavily dependent on its tuning parameters. These parameters are therefore optimised by learning a Gaussian process model of the time-normalised sample correlation matrix. This allows one to formulate an objective function that balances tuning parameter exploration and exploitation, furnishing an intervention-free inference scheme. Using neural mass models (NMMs)—a class of biophysically motivated DCMs—we find that HMC-E is statistically more efficient than LMC-R (with a Riemannian metric); yet both gradient-based samplers are far superior to the random walk Metropolis algorithm, which proves inadequate to steer away from dynamical instability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Individual differences in cognitive efficiency, particularly in relation to working memory (WM), have been associated both with personality dimensions that reflect enduring regularities in brain configuration, and with short-term neural plasticity, that reflects task-related changes in brain connectivity. To elucidate the relationship of these two divergent mechanisms, we tested the hypothesis that personality dimensions, which reflect enduring aspects of brain configuration, inform about the neurobiological framework within which short-term, task-related plasticity, as measured by effective connectivity, can be facilitated or constrained. As WM consistently engages the dorsolateral prefrontal (DLPFC), parietal (PAR), and anterior cingulate cortex (ACC), we specified a WM network model with bidirectional, ipsilateral, and contralateral connections between these regions from a functional magnetic resonance imaging dataset obtained from 40 healthy adults while performing the 3-back WM task. Task-related effective connectivity changes within this network were estimated using Dynamic Causal Modelling. Personality was evaluated along the major dimensions of Neuroticism, Extraversion, Openness to Experience, Agreeableness, and Conscientiousness. Only two dimensions were relevant to task-dependent effective connectivity. Neuroticism and Conscientiousness respectively constrained and facilitated neuroplastic responses within the WM network. These results suggest individual differences in cognitive efficiency arise from the interplay between enduring and short-term plasticity in brain configuration. Hum Brain Mapp 36:4158-4163, 2015. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this technical note we compare the performance of four gradient-free MCMC samplers (random walk Metropolis sampling, slice-sampling, adaptive MCMC sampling and population-based MCMC sampling with tempering) in terms of the number of independent samples they can produce per unit computational time. For the Bayesian inversion of a single-node neural mass model, both adaptive and population-based samplers are more efficient compared with random walk Metropolis sampler or slice-sampling; yet adaptive MCMC sampling is more promising in terms of compute time. Slice-sampling yields the highest number of independent samples from the target density — albeit at almost 1000% increase in computational time, in comparison to the most efficient algorithm (i.e., the adaptive MCMC sampler). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This review surveys recent trends in the use of local field potentials—and their non-invasive counterparts—to address the principles of functional brain architectures. In particular, we treat oscillations as the (observable) signature of context-sensitive changes in synaptic efficacy that underlie coordinated dynamics and message-passing in the brain. This rich source of information is now being exploited by various procedures—like dynamic causal modelling—to test hypotheses about neuronal circuits in health and disease. Furthermore, the roles played by neuromodulatory mechanisms can be addressed directly through their effects on oscillatory phenomena. These neuromodulatory or gain control processes are central to many theories of normal brain function (e.g. attention) and the pathophysiology of several neuropsychiatric conditions (e.g. Parkinson's disease). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Human faces may signal relevant information and are therefore analysed rapidly and effectively by the brain. However, the precise mechanisms and pathways involved in rapid face processing are unclear. One view posits a role for a subcortical connection between early visual sensory regions and the amygdala, while an alternative account emphasises cortical mediation. To adjudicate between these functional architectures, we recorded magnetoencephalographic (MEG) evoked fields in human subjects to presentation of faces with varying emotional valence. Early brain activity was better explained by dynamic causal models containing a direct subcortical connection to the amygdala irrespective of emotional modulation. At longer latencies, models without a subcortical connection had comparable evidence. Hence, our results support the hypothesis that a subcortical pathway to the amygdala plays a role in rapid sensory processing of faces, in particular during early stimulus processing. This finding contributes to an understanding of the amygdala as a behavioural relevance detector. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This technical paper offers a critical re-evaluation of (spectral) Granger causality measures in the analysis of biological timeseries. Using realistic (neural mass) models of coupled neuronal dynamics, we evaluate the robustness of parametric and nonparametric Granger causality. Starting from a broad class of generative (state-space) models of neuronal dynamics, we show how their Volterra kernels prescribe the second-order statistics of their response to random fluctuations; characterised in terms of cross-spectral density, cross-covariance, autoregressive coefficients and directed transfer functions. These quantities in turn specify Granger causality — providing a direct (analytic) link between the parameters of a generative model and the expected Granger causality. We use this link to show that Granger causality measures based upon autoregressive models can become unreliable when the underlying dynamics is dominated by slow (unstable) modes — as quantified by the principal Lyapunov exponent. However, nonparametric measures based on causal spectral factors are robust to dynamical instability. We then demonstrate how both parametric and nonparametric spectral causality measures can become unreliable in the presence of measurement noise. Finally, we show that this problem can be finessed by deriving spectral causality measures from Volterra kernels, estimated using dynamic causal modelling. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines intrinsic brain networks in light of recent developments in the characterisation of resting state fMRI timeseries -- and simulations of neuronal fluctuations based upon the connectome. Its particular focus is on patterns or modes of distributed activity that underlie functional connectivity. We first demonstrate that the eigenmodes of functional connectivity - or covariance among regions or nodes - are the same as the eigenmodes of the underlying effective connectivity, provided we limit ourselves to symmetrical connections. This symmetry constraint is motivated by appealing to proximity graphs based upon multidimensional scaling. Crucially, the principal modes of functional connectivity correspond to the dynamically unstable modes of effective connectivity that decay slowly and show long term memory. Technically, these modes have small negative Lyapunov exponents that approach zero from below. Interestingly, the superposition of modes - whose exponents are sampled from a power law distribution - produces classical 1/f (scale free) spectra. We conjecture that the emergence of dynamical instability - that underlies intrinsic brain networks - is inevitable in any system that is separated from external states by a Markov blanket. This conjecture appeals to a free energy formulation of nonequilibrium steady-state dynamics. The common theme that emerges from these theoretical considerations is that endogenous fluctuations are dominated by a small number of dynamically unstable modes. We use this as the basis of a dynamic causal model (DCM) of resting state fluctuations -- as measured in terms of their complex cross spectra. In this model, effective connectivity is parameterised in terms of eigenmodes and their Lyapunov exponents -- that can also be interpreted as locations in a multidimensional scaling space. Model inversion provides not only estimates of edges or connectivity but also the topography and dimensionality of the underlying scaling space. Here, we focus on conceptual issues with simulated fMRI data and provide an illustrative application using an empirical multi-region timeseries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Biological agents are the most complex systems humans have to model and predict. In predictive coding, high-level cortical areas inform sensory cortex about incoming sensory signals, a comparison between the predicted and actual sensory feedback is made, and information about unpredicted sensory information is passed forward to higher-level areas. Predictions about animate motion - relative to inanimate motion - should result in prediction error and increase signal passing from lower level sensory area MT+/V5, which is responsive to all motion, to higher-order posterior superior temporal sulcus (pSTS), which is selectively activated by animate motion. We tested this hypothesis by investigating effective connectivity in a large-scale fMRI dataset from the Human Connectome Project. 132 participants viewed animations of triangles that were designed to move in a way that appeared animate (moving intentionally), or inanimate (moving in a mechanical way). We found that forward connectivity from V5 to the pSTS increased, and inhibitory self-connection in the pSTS decreased, when viewing intentional motion versus inanimate motion. These prediction errors associated with animate motion may be the cause for increased attention to animate stimuli found in previous studies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This scientific commentary refers to ‘On the nature of seizure dynamics’, by V. Jirsa et al. (doi:10.1093/brain/awu133). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]