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South Asia emerged as the fastest growing region in the world in 2015, posting GDP growth of 7 percent. Weak oil and commodity prices, slowing capital flows and shrinking global trade contributed towards a deceleration of growth in most of the world's economies. South Asia - as a net importer of oil - was an anomaly, growing significantly on the back of higher private consumption and public investment. Higher remittances and reserve buffers throughout the region offset the fall in exports caused by the drop in global demand. The region is set to maintain real GDP growth above 7 percent over the next few years. However, the tailwinds are now fading - capital flows have declined and remittances are starting to feel the reality of low oil prices. Pakistan, while not growing as quickly as its neighbors, has continued its steady growth recovery in H1FY16. Strong growth in consumption, rising foreign exchange reserves, fast-growing workers' remittances and a lower import bill compensated for a significant fall in exports. Low oil prices generated a significant boost, driving a 9.1 percent fall in the import bill and reducing inflation significantly, in turn creating scope to reduce the policy rate. Private sector consumption, propelled by higher remittances and a loosened monetary policy, is expected to account for over half of FY16 GDP growth.

The Jordan economic monitor provides an update on key economic developments and policies over the past six months. It also presents findings from recent World Bank work on Jordan. It places them in a longer-term and global context, and assesses the implications of these developments and other changes in policy for the outlook for the country. Its coverage ranges from the macro-economy to financial markets to indicators of human welfare and development. It is intended for a wide audience, including policy makers, business leaders, financial market participants, and the community of analysts and professionals engaged in Jordan.

This seventh economic update goes to the heart of one of the main challenges faced by Tanzania: how can the country finance its development? This is a fundamental question when aid is coming down as a proportion of a growing GDP, and as access to financial markets remains limited. Oneoption would be to rely more on the private sector to deliver education, health, roads, ports and electricity. This is possible as demonstrated by many such experiences around the world, and therefore this approach needs to be one important part of the solution to finance development. The argument presented in this economic update is that higher tax revenues will come only if a comprehensive approach is adopted. The tax system has to be affordable, fair, simple, and transparent. The government also has to be accountable for the money it is receiving. It is onlywhen these basic conditions are met that tax compliance will increase. Because a strong social contract between the State and its citizens is not yet sufficiently in place in Tanzania, a number of suggestions are proposed in the update, with the objective of stimulating debate on possibleapproaches to increase tax revenue.

Aging may be one of the most far-reaching processes defining the economic, fiscal, and social changes societies are likely to experience over the next 40 years. The demographic consequences of aging will have a dramatic impact on labor markets, economic growth, social structures--and government budgets. These issues have gained urgency after the second largest global recession in the past 100 years. Based on a broad comparative analysis of countries that include the EU and non-EU European and Central Asian countries, as well as several case studies and model simulations, the paper seeks to provide broad answers--tailored in part to distinct groups of countries according to their aging-fiscal profiles--to major questions facing governments budgets in aging societies: What are the fiscal-aging profiles of Western European, emerging European, and Central Asian countries? In other words, how good or bad is their fiscal situation--"initial conditions"--in view of their emerging aging-related problems? What kind of public spending pressures are likely to emerge in the coming decades, and what will be their relative importance? How do countries compare in terms of the possible impacts of aging on growth and long-term debt sustainability? What can be learned from in-depth and comparative case studies of aging, fiscal sustainability, and fiscal reform? Are there good-practice examples--countries doing things right at the right time--that may offer lessons for the others? And, perhaps most important, given the need for long-term fiscal consolidation for many countries, what kind of revenue and expenditure policy agendas are likely to emerge to mitigate the effects of aging? A key policy conclusion is that countries should aim for early rather than delayed reforms dealing with long-term aging pressures. The urgency is accentuated by the debt situations and/or adverse debt and demographic dynamics in almost all countries but also by the evolving voter preferences. As societies age and voting preferences increasingly reflect the political will of the older population, it will become more difficult to enact the necessary reforms ensuring social and fiscal sustainability.

The purpose of this paper is to contribute to theunderstanding and discussion of how the costs andbenefits of natural resource development are sharedacross society. This paper presents how IFC, as both aninvestor and a development organization, determineswhether benefits and costs are shared reasonably, and how this assessment influences IFC’s decision to invest ina particular natural resource project. the goal of the paper is to promotea broad, constructive dialogue across stakeholders—governments, investors, civil society, and others—around benefit sharing. The paper draws on IFC’s experience and presents anoverarching framework for multi-stakeholder benefitsharing, providing analysis and guidance for a range ofcomplex topics. The paper is intended to provide entrypoints for stakeholders of varying levels of familiarity with the issues to benefit-sharing assessment. The paper is not a definitive manual for all the issues coveredfor which more detailed, high-quality and excellentreferences and literature exists. This paper is organized along these broad areas of impact that IFC considers in the benefit sharing assessment:fiscal, economic, environmental, and social. The approaches IFC uses to evaluate benefit sharing arepresented in each area, along with some lessons learned. This is complemented by a discussion of key issues thatare topical in the field. Each chapter opens with a list of questions that can be used as a guide to assess the potential benefits and costs of an investment. As a result, there is a spectrum of what can be considered reasonable overall. However, there may be particular features of a benefit-sharing arrangement that stand out and can signal a risk to its legitimacy. Our aspiration is that this paper will complement as well as stimulate work by others that can enhance the collective knowledge and encourage dialogue.

The report contains eight chapters. Chapter one leads off with the main macroeconomic and fiscal determinants to understand the general health financing situation in DRC. Its sections one and two provide a brief overview of the country’s macroeconomic and fiscal environment. Section three sheds new light on decentralization, a core health issue, and focuses on the fiscal implications of decentralization. Section 4 offers a brief analysis of the management of public finance, a key element for the effectiveness and quality of expenditure, especially in health. Chapter two starts with a brief overview of the main objectives and analyzes its organization and governance, with a focus on health care delivery. Chapter three discusses the performance of the main health system’s outputs and outcomes. Section one analyzes major changes in health outcomes based on different household surveys. Section two addresses service coverage with a focus on mother and child services. Section three explores service quality issues. In a detailed analysis of health financing sources, Chapter four looks at changes in public, external, and private sources over 2008–2013 (section one). Section two analyzes the adequacy of government funding for health financing needs, and assesses the prospects for expanding fiscal space for health. Chapter five examines government funds mobilized for health, both allocated in the budget and executed (or actuals). Government resources for health are taken to mean all domestic financing sources allocated to the Ministry of Public Health and other health entities. Section one examines changes in the health budget envelope over 2007–2013, while section two focuses on actual spending. Section three analyzes government executed expenditure by nature and section four reviews trends and types of personnel expenditure, the largest share of government health expenditure. Chapter six focuses on health expenditure performance in the light of three main parameters: financial protection; equity; and efficiency. Section one analyzes financial protection using standard indicators (share of out-of-pocket payments, catastrophic expenditure, and impoverishing expenditure). Section two scrutinizes health outcomes and service use disparities and inequalities based on income, gender, and place of residence. The last section presents an overview of the efficiency of health expenditure in DRC, primarily in comparison to its peer countries. Chapter seven analyzes health financing from the point of view of the provinces, the new ‘entitled’ authorities for the health sector, drawing on a survey of financial and fiscal data from six provinces. Section one presents an overview of health financing flows after decentralization. Section two focuses on financing sources for the health sector at the provincial level, examining provincial government funds, external assistance, and central government transfers. The chapter ends with an analysis of the volume and type of decentralized government health expenditure. The report concludes in a brief chapter eight with a series of recommendations to improve short- and medium-term health sector financing and performance.

This note presents practical guidance on how to implement a framework for managing fiscal commitments from Public-Private Partnerships (PPPs). It draws on specific regional operational experience and on World Bank Institute (WBI)'s wider thematic engagement with different partners worldwide. The note provides practical advice on how to: consistently identify and assess fiscal commitments arising from PPPs during project preparation and implementation; incorporate these into the project approval process, including budgeting for these appropriately; and strengthen the monitoring and reporting of fiscal commitments over the lifetime of the project. It explains the fiscal commitments that can arise from PPP projects; why governments may find it difficult to assess and manage these fiscal commitments and incorporate them into project selection; and the key components of an institutional framework to manage fiscal commitments at both the development and implementation stages of a project, including the roles, responsibilities, and processes for managing PPP fiscal commitments.

This study analyzes the governance framework of the business portfolio of Mauritanian institutions and government agencies and offers avenues for reform. The report begins with an overview of the scope of work and performance of the portfolio mentioned using the term Para-Statal sector and identifies the main challenges represented by this sector. It then analyzes the governance framework of Para-statal sector of Mauritania through comparative references from the guidelines of the OECD. The diagnosis includes an analysis of the legal framework, the supervisory function, risk monitoring budget and performance in terms of delivery of services, advice to administration, transparency and dissemination of information. The report closes with a detailed and sequenced action plan compiled from observations in the diagnosis and offers a series of suggestions for appropriate reforms to the institutional context of Mauritania. The action plan focuses primarily on strengthening the monitoring of risk of the budget and proposes ways of sequenced reforms taking into account both international examples and the Mauritanian context.

After two years of fragile recovery from the global recession, as a group the six South East European countries (SEE6) Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina (BIH), Kosovo, FYR Macedonia, Montenegro, and Serbia are experiencing a double-dip recession in 2012. Deteriorating external conditions, the impact of the severe winter on economic activity, and a continuing rise in unemployment early in the year took a toll on consumption, investments, and exports. In this fragile environment, Serbia, Albania, and Montenegro in particular will need to persevere in reducing fiscal deficits and bringing down debt, even as they must continue to improve the investment climate and reform labor markets and the public sector. In all SEE6 countries, public sector arrears pose special challenges to fiscal management and the private sector, and there are unfinished, structural reforms agendas. After two years of deep crisis, a sluggish recovery, rising unemployment and poverty, and a continuing recession even with the best efforts on fiscal consolidation and structural reforms, which must continue there is a danger that SEE6 countries are caught in a vicious circle that reinforces the cycle of long-term austerity, low if not negative growth, high debt, and even higher risks of social upheaval. To prevent this outcome, this report argues, SEE6 governments need to redouble their efforts to accelerate fiscal and structural reforms. These countries have largely exhausted their fiscal space and reduced public investment (except Kosovo, an outlier) to a fraction of what is needed to maintain public capital stock in critical infrastructure. Private investment is suppressed by the lack of productive, complementary public investments, slow credit recovery, and depressed domestic demand. External demand is minimal, and exports are not only too few, they are prevented from becoming an immediate, new engine of growth by infrastructure, finance, and other deficiencies. If such accelerated reforms materialize, external support well-coordinated and targeting the region as a whole, not just individual countries from the European Union (EU) and global international financial institutions (IFIs) could help ease the transition to a more sustained growth in medium term. In November 2012, the European Investment Bank, the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, and the World Bank announced 30 billion in financing for Central and South East European countries over the next two years. In SEE6 countries, this timely initiative would likely be delivered via the Western Balkans Investment Framework (WBIF) and other IFI resources. Investment Promotion Agency (IPA) resources will also be important, especially in supporting institutional reform and rural development. By focusing on major infrastructure of regional significance (rail, highways, energy, and gas) and on jobs and small and medium enterprises, the efficiency of investments, growth, and employment could be substantially heightened. However, additional financing for growth and jobs could prove effective only if accompanied by intensified fiscal and structural reforms, especially in the areas of investment climate, labor markets, and governance.

Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth accelerated to an unprecedented 17.3 percent in 2011 from 6.4 percent in 2010 and the unemployment rate fell from 13 percent in 2010 to 9 percent in 2011. However, real wages for unskilled workers in the urban informal sector are starting to fall as the inflation rate reached 11.1 percent year-on-year in December. Sharply rising government spending is the root cause of overheating: government spending rose by 56 percent in 2011 and is budgeted to rise by a further 32 percent this year, fueled by sharply rising resource revenues. This pro-cyclical fiscal policy could result in another 'boom-and-bust' cycle Mongolia experienced before, particularly as the global economy could face a substantial slowdown in growth due to the continuing European sovereign debt crisis, and which could result in a sharp drop in mineral prices and subsequently government revenues There have been major legislative developments in 2011 and early 2012 aimed at strengthening policy institutions and frameworks. The Integrated Budget Law (IBL) was passed in December 2011: this organic budget law contains measures to support fiscal sustainability and the successful implementation of the Fiscal Stability Law. It also strengthens the public investment framework by requiring feasibility studies and alignment with national priorities for projects to be included in the Public Investment Program and the budget. The Social Welfare Law was passed in early January. This mandates the provision of a targeted poverty benefit replacing the existing system of universal cash transfers. To ensure macroeconomic stability and to prevent a hard landing for the economy in case of an adverse external shock, Mongolia needs to adhere strictly to prudent fiscal policies as set out in the FSL and IBL and tightening both fiscal and monetary policy to reduce inflation, take macro-prudential action to reduce systemic risks in the banking sector and maintain a flexible exchange rate that will act as the first buffer in any external shock materializes. These are uncertain times for Mongolia. The economy faces growing headwinds from the global economic environment, while the looming elections increase domestic uncertainty. Until a substantial amount of savings has accumulated in the stabilization fund, Mongolia remains strongly exposed to volatility in commodity prices.

The objectives of the study are to provide data which can be compared between economies on a like-for-like basis; to facilitate the benchmarking of tax systems within relevant economic and geographical groupings, which can provide an opportunity to learn from peer group economies; and to enable an in-depth analysis of the results which can be used to help identify good practices and possible reforms. The private sector plays an essential role in contributing to economic growth and prosperity. Companies contribute to socio-economic development by employing workers, improving the skills and knowledge base, buying from local suppliers and providing products and services that improve people's lives. They also contribute to government revenues through generating and paying taxes. The paying taxes study is unique because it generates a set of indicators that measure the world's tax systems from the point of view of business and also because it covers the full range of taxes paid in 183 economies, measuring how business complies with the different tax laws and regulations in each economy.

Over the past couple of decades, global financing for development has changed dramatically. The biggest shifts have been the rapid increase of net private financing flows to developing countries, in particular to middle-income countries (MICs); the sustained growth of official development assistance (ODA) from Development Assistance Committee (DAC) members, even excluding debt relief; the emergence of MICs as growth poles and sources of ODA with different approaches to aid delivery than those of DAC donors; and the expanded role of private aid. In addition, past trends of proliferation, fragmentation and earmarking of aid have continued. This paper reviews broad trends in global financing for development, with a focus on ODA and the growing importance of new development partners such as the so-called BRICS. In this context, it discusses the implications of this changing landscape for aid effectiveness and the role of ODA going forward.

In 2010, after two decades of rapid economic growth, Vietnam passed the threshold to become a lower-middle-income economy. Sustained market-oriented reforms combined with intensive efforts to integrate into the world economy are among the key drivers of this achievement. The reform of tax policy and administration has been a vital part of this transition. This is leading to a fundamental change in the composition of taxpayers, from large state-owned enterprises (SOEs) and foreign-invested companies to a myriad of small and medium private enterprises. Economic transition is also leading to an equally important change in the sources of government revenue, away from cross-border trade-related taxes and revenue collection from crude oil toward a greater share of domestic tax revenue, in particular taxation of business profits, labor income, and capital gains on land. However, completing the transition to a market economy will require changes going beyond tax collection and administration procedures, and will involve changes to the tax instruments themselves. At the end of this process, Vietnam should have a set of taxes that is simple and transparent, secures a stable flow of revenues for the government, encourages an efficient allocation of resources, and does not risk constituting a source of inequality or unfairness. The purpose of the series of studies in this volume is to shed light on the issues Vietnam will be facing in the process of reforming its tax policy and administration. The studies are also expected to lead to concrete policy recommendations contributing to the preparation of key policies and legislative documents to ensure the achievement of the state budget revenue target and other tax administration reform targets in the SEDP 2011-2015. It is expected that the individual studies in this series will become useful inputs into the debate surrounding the issuance of new laws and regulations. It is also hoped that the volume will support the reform momentum in the tax policy area, leading to increased efficiency, transparency, and equity.

We analyze the short and long run effects of demographic ageing - increased longevity and reduced fertility - on per-capita growth. The OLG model captures direct effects, working through adjustments in the savings rate, labor supply, and capital deepening, and indirect effects, working through changes of taxes, government spending components and the retirement age in politico-economic equilibrium. Growth is driven by capital accumulation and productivity increases fueled by public investment. The closed-form solutions of the model predict taxation and the retirement age in OECD economies to increase in response to demographic ageing and per-capita growth to accelerate. If the retirement age were held constant, the growth rate in politico-economic equilibrium would essentially remain unchanged, due to a surge of social security transfers and crowding out of public investment.

The Indonesian economic quarterly reports on and synthesizes the past three months' key developments in Indonesia's economy. Its coverage ranges from the macro economy to financial markets to indicators of human welfare and development. It is intended for a wide audience, including policy makers, business leaders, and financial market participants, and the community of analysts and professionals engaged in Indonesia's evolving economy. The challenge for Indonesia is to maximize the opportunities that this brings, in terms of enhancing future growth and making investments that can improve the welfare of the entire population, while managing the associated risks. Strong capital inflows, particularly portfolio, have been seen across emerging markets, including Indonesia. These inflows are driven by yield differentials and the stronger growth prospects, and improved creditworthiness, of emerging economies relative to heavily indebted, higher-income economies. Further quantitative easing in the US has provided an additional, cyclical boost to this trend. Global commodity prices also picked up in recent months. In November, the US dollar price of non-energy commodities rose by 3.4 percent over the month with food and raw material prices up by 4.9 percent and 7.6 percent, respectively. The underlying drivers were strong growth in demand from emerging economies, particularly China, and also supply disruptions in the agriculture sector.

This study explores the ‘affordability’ of development targets in six key sectors (health, education, water and sanitation, agriculture and infrastructure), by means of an empirical study examining sectoral expenditure in five low income case study countries in sub-Saharan Africa (Ethiopia, Kenya, Malawi, Mozambique and Uganda) and comparing them with target levels of expenditure set out in recent international agreements to which sub-Saharan governments are signatories. The study has a particular focus on social protection in response to growing government and donor interest in the affordability of provision in this sector. This approach is taken in order to assess the limitations of the current ‘silo’ approach to sector financing which characterises much of the development financing discourse, and which results in the abstraction of one sector from the broader fiscal whole, to the detriment of overall fiscal coherence and realism. While this study looks at total expenditure per sector, it does not look at efficiency or outcomes of this spending. The report examines expenditure in 2006/ 2007 in relation to sector-specific international targets, assesses the shortfall, and then explores the fiscal feasibility of financing all six sectoral targets. The paper finds that meeting all the six targets simultaneously would require more than 100% of total government expenditure in four of the five case study countries, and 98% in the fifth, and that to meet these targets while retaining current levels of expenditure in other sectors would imply doubling current levels of government expenditure. Often it is claimed that developing country governments lack the political will to allocate resources to some sectors. However, this study suggests that the inadequacy of public expenditure in key sectors is also informed by the inherent impossibility of simultaneously meeting the range of international commitments to which developing counties are signatories. Current funding for basic social protection provision is between 0.1% and 0.7% of GDP in the case study countries, compared to target expenditure levels of 4.5% to achieve the goals of the basic social protection component of the AU Social Policy Framework. This study concludes that the social protection sector is in competition with the five other key development sectors and that not all goals can be met from available resources. While there may be potential to increase financing to this sector through the conventional range of instruments (efficiency savings, reallocation, increased borrowing, increased revenue generation, increased ODA or private sector financing) the social protection sector is in effect in competition with each of the other key development sectors in pursuit of any additional resources, and when considered in aggregate as part of the wider fiscal context, it is clear that meeting all targets is not realistic, and consequently that the development vision which underlies them, is challenged, even compromised by the fiscal reality. Input targets have a role to play in i) motivating greater effort in revenue generation (within the boundaries of sound macroeconomic policy) and ii) encourage governments and donors to prioritise spending by reallocating from low to high-priority sectors within existing budgets. While such targets can serve as useful lobbying mechanisms, spending targets should be taken ‘seriously but not literally’ (Wood, 2004): that is primarily as a guide and motivation for raising and spending public finance. This report does not conclude that such targets should be dropped, but it does caution against the argument that particular sectoral targets are ‘affordable’ in any objective sense. The report highlights the tension faced by governments between the need for good public financial management on the one hand, and the challenge of meeting international commitments on the other, raising the impossibility of meeting the key development spending targets simultaneously. Given the unavoidable overall financing shortfall, the key question becomes prioritisation of the use of existing resources, the opportunity cost of programming outside these sectors and non priority or ineffective use of resources within the sectors.

This synthesis paper is based on a review of three countries in West Africa-Burkina Faso, Mali, and Mauritania where state owned enterprises (SOEs) continue to play an important role and Governments have embarked on a number of public sector reforms are intended to have a positive impact on SOEs. SOE governance practices and problems are having strong similarities in all of the countries reviewed. These commonalities can be ascribed to the fact that all of the countries are transitioning from centrally controlled economic and political traditions to more liberal economies and to a more democratic government. All are facing challenges with implementing the legal structures left behind from colonial times. The data that is available shows that wholly-owned and state controlled SOEs under perform. Many are technically insolvent and survive only through government support. Their performance is not only poor in the financial area but also in the provision of needed social services. The country studies link the poor performance of SOEs, in particular wholly-owned SOEs, to their governance practices. Long-lasting reforms are not simply a matter of plugging holes in the legislative or institutional framework. Corporate governance is the result of a complex interplay of law, practice, institutions and culture. Action plans need to take into account incentives and the political, social and cultural context of corporate governance in the country in addition to the legal framework. Indeed, SOE governance is a system and making it work better requires a systems approach. Most reform plans in the past have focused on one or another element of SOE governance, which might explain why many have fallen short of hopes and expectations. Systems approaches, on the other hand, are important in complex organizations (such as SOEs) whose success depends upon the interaction and cooperation of other organizations and institutions. This synthesis paper presents the objectives and the methodology used in carrying out the reviews followed by a discussion of the features and importance of SOEs in each of the countries studied. It then segues into a discussion on the performance of SOEs which is supplemented by case studies of both successful and unsuccessful SOEs and key lessons learned the paper then presents the current Government initiatives for reform and the remaining challenges and recommendations. The paper concludes with suggestions on how to implement the recommendations based on examples from other countries that have embarked on comprehensive governance reforms for the SOE sector.

This report reviews developments in Papua New Guinea (PNG) since independence, and looks at the issues relevant for saving and managing natural resources and resource induced volatility. These issues could serve as a useful basis for discussion of options the government of PNG could pursue as it emerges from the economic and financial crisis and looks forward to the start of operation of the PNG liquified natural gas (LNG) project. Although the wealth of international experience suggests several key areas for the attention of the authorities, many issues can be addressed only on the basis of detailed projections about future resource flows and investment outlays. Whether the rules will prove effective will also depend on other steps to enhance the fiscal framework. The World Bank can provide more detailed analysis, expertise and recommendations should such data become available.

We analyze the short and long run effects of demographic ageing - increased longevity and reduced fertility - on per-capita growth. The OLG model captures direct effects, working through adjustments in the savings rate, labor supply, and capital deepening, and indirect effects, working through changes of taxes, government spending components and the retirement age in politico-economic equilibrium. Growth is driven by capital accumulation and productivity increases fueled by public investment. The closed-form solutions of the model predict taxation and the retirement age in OECD economies to increase in response to demographic ageing and per-capita growth to accelerate. If the retirement age were held constant, the growth rate in politico-economic equilibrium would essentially remain unchanged, due to a surge of social security transfers and crowding out of public investment.

Reforms in recent decades have sharply reduced the distortions affecting agriculture in developing countries, particularly by cuts to agricultural export taxes and by some reductions in government assistance to agriculture in high-income countries, but international trade in farm products continues to be far more distorted than trade in nonfarm goods. This paper summarizes a series of empirical studies that focus on the effects of the remaining distortions to world merchandise trade for poverty and inequality, especially in developing countries. To obtain different insights into the various impacts, two global studies are undertaken using the World Bank's Linkage model, one multi-country study uses the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) model, and ten country case studies are also included, each using a national economy-wide model. The Linkage model results suggest that liberalization will reduce international inequality, largely by boosting farm incomes and raising real wages for unskilled workers in developing countries, and will reduce the number of poor people worldwide by 3 percent. The analysis based on the GTAP model for a sample of 15 countries, and the ten stand-alone national case studies, all point to larger reductions in poverty, especially if only the non-poor are subjected to increased income taxation to compensate for the loss of trade tax revenue.

Many countries are convinced that Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) should be an important component of their growth strategy. To encourage FDI, they have improved their business climates, developed various guarantees for investors, and offered incentives. In the real world, Investment Promotion Intermediaries (IPIs) face tight budget and human resource constraints. Allocating scarce resources among the various possible activities is a major component of developing an effective promotion strategy. Research, including that covered in this report, suggests that many IPIs are failing to devote enough attention to the most basic-and least costly-promotion function, one that, if it fails, undermines all other promotion activities. Provision of services to potential investors-and particularly the provision of information-is basic to all promotion. Image-building efforts can be hugely expensive. Similarly, targeted missions and personal selling are costly in terms of both time and effort. FDI offers the prospects of growth and jobs to host countries, but attracting it requires a good deal of effort. Effective investment promotion is not only less costly than adding on more incentives for investors; reform and incentives are unlikely to accomplish their goals without promotion. Promotion efforts will, however, fail to attract desired investment if IPIs are not skilled at the most basic function: collecting and providing to potential investors relevant and timely information. Ensuring that this function works well should be the top priority in the promotion strategy and in the development of management systems.

This joint working paper lays out a rationale and strategic framework for improving food security and managing food-price shocks in the Arab countries. The paper does not provide country specific policy and project recommendations. Such recommendations will follow from the country by country application of the framework, taking into account each country's political and cultural preferences, resource endowments, and risk tolerance. In 2007 and the first half of 2008, a sharp rise in agricultural commodity and food prices triggered grave concerns about food security, malnutrition and increased poverty throughout the world. While the threat of a prolonged food-price shock receded with falling energy and commodity prices and a weakening global economy in the second half of 2008, many factors underlying the volatility in food prices appear here to stay and will require careful management if the world is to avoid future food-price shocks. This paper suggests three critical strategies that, together, can serve as pillars to help offset future vulnerability to price shocks: a) strengthen safety nets, provide people with better access to family planning services, and promote education; b) enhance the food supply provided by domestic agriculture and improve rural livelihoods by addressing lagging productivity growth through increased investment in research and development; and c) reduce exposure to market volatility by improving supply chain efficiency and by more effectively using financial instruments to hedge risk.

This paper provides background for the Government of Indonesia as it considers if and how to introduce more robust local government performance incentives into the intergovernmental fiscal framework. The next section briefly examines the forces that have driven the recent national wave of interest in improving local government performance. This is followed by a review of the relatively limited set of local government performance incentives currently in force in Indonesia. The fourth section provides a conceptual overview of how to think about the possible expansion of local government incentive programs, outlining the potential role(s) of such programs in general and the key issues involved in designing and implementing them. The fifth section tentatively considers a number of options for additional local government incentives in Indonesia that the central government may wish to consider pursuing. The paper concludes with an outline of next steps for moving forward with the possible development of more purposeful and meaningful performance incentives in Indonesia's intergovernmental fiscal framework.

Beginning in the late 1980s many developing countries turned to the private sector to provide basic infrastructure and utility services, such as highways, railroads, water, wastewater, electricity, gas, and telecommunications. Recent studies suggest that private involvement often benefited customers and reduced government fiscal problems without harming employees or enriching private providers excessively. There were enough high-profile failures, however, to discredit this reform in many quarters. Private involvement is likely to be more successful if it generates real efficiency gains rather than simply transferring costs among parties, if the systems of regulating the private companies are politically sensitive as well as technically competent, if the costs and constraints of private capital are not excessive, and if we are willing to adopt more modest and gradual schemes in difficult circumstances.

The world faces unprecedented opportunities to reduce global poverty and improve human welfare. Strong global growth and better economic policies in recent years have substantially reduced poverty in many developing countries. However, with the recent financial turmoil in the United States and rising prices for food, oil, and other commodities, the world economy faces heightened risks and volatility. Policymakers around the world face the challenge of maintaining momentum in growth, as well as of improving the quality of growth. This concern over quality is reflected in the highly uneven reduction in poverty, rising inequality in numerous countries, and widening environmental degradation during the past decade, a period of unprecedented high economic growth in developing countries. Unless these issues are confronted, gains from growth are likely to be undermined and the pace of growth, itself, will not be sustained. Growth is clearly linked to reductions in poverty. But the strength of this relationship depends on the quality or nature of growth. Various studies show that some growth patterns systematically reduce poverty and inequality, but others do not. And some growth patterns lead to underinvestment in human capital, overexploitation of natural resources, and degradation of the environment, patterns inimical to the sustainability of growth.

Tampereen yliopistossa tarkastettu yht. lis. Raimo Sounelan väitöskirjatutkimus Työllisyys talouspoliittisessa retoriikassa käsittelee työllisyystavoitetta Suomen valtion budjetti-perusteluissa ja Kansantaloudellisen aikakauskirjan talouspoliittisessa kirjoittelussa vuosina 1991-1997. Suomen työttömyysaste oli huomattavasti korkeampi kuin yhdessäkään muussa vertaillussa yhdessätoista OECD-maassa koko tutkimuskauden aikana. Kaikki valtion budjettiesitykset ja suurin osa kirjoituksista pohjautuvat tarjontaedellytyksiä markkinoilla korostavaan klassiseen talousteoriaan. Sen mukaan avoimen sektorin kehittymisen suurin este on kustannustason korkeus työnantajan näkökulmasta. Julkinen sektori ja suljettu sektori ovat liian suuria, kalliita ja tehottomia, mikä siirtyy vientisektorin rasitukseksi. Työllisyystavoite on alisteinen muille talouspoliittisille tavoitteille. Korkeaan työttömyyteen ja pitkäaikaistyöttömyyteen liittyy hysteresis-ilmiö eli työttömyys jää pysyvästi korkealle tasolle, mikä taas pakottaa nostamaan hyväksyttävän työttömyysasteen korkeutta. Uusi "luonnollinen", korkea ja pysyvä työttömyys syntyy työttömien kustannuksella ja palkansaajaliikkeen hiljaisella hyväksymisellä. Hysteresis-ilmiö heikentää työttömien asemaa kahdella tavalla: Ensiksi työttömyys huonontaa työttömien työmarkkina-asemaa jatkuvasti. Toiseksi työttömät syrjäytyvät ammatti-liittojen edunvalvonnasta lopullisesti. Palkkasumman jakavat keskenään työssä olevat siten, että tietyillä aloilla palkat nousevat työmarkkinoita tasapainottavia palkkoja korkeammiksi. Työttömiä ei edusta kukaan, jolloin inflaation hillinnän hyväksi ollaan valmiit sallimaan suuri työttömyys. Eduskunnan voimasuhteilla ja niiden muutoksilla ei ole mitään vaikutusta talouspolitiikan sisältöön. Ajanjaksona 1994-1997 työtulot ovat kasvaneet 20 prosenttia, pääomatulot peräti 109 prosenttia ja bruttokansantuote markkinahintaan asukasta kohti 27 prosenttia. Työn ja pääoman välinen tulonjako on muuttunut paljon pääoman hyväksi. Kotitalouksien väliset suhteelliset tuloerot muuttuivat vuonna 1996 suuremmiksi kuin kertaakaan 1990-luvulla. Tutkimusjakson aikana Suomi oli eittämättä kehittymässä valtioksi, jonka ominaisuuksia ovat: Taistelu yhteiskunnallisuutta, poliittisuutta ja politiikkaa vastaan on modernia. Politiikan herruus on korvattu taloustieteiden ja talouselämän asiallisuudella. Poliittisten ongelmien tilalle on tullut organisatoris-teknisiä ja taloudellis-sosiaalisia tehtäviä. Moderni valtio on muuttunut suureksi yritykseksi. Tämä kehitys johtaisi jatkuessaan siihen, että taloudelliset instituutiot ja edut ohjaavat sekä poliittisia instituutioita että lainsäädäntöä ja lakien tulkintaa.

To understand the fiscal position of a country, contingent liabilities and other sources of fiscal risk need to be considered. The authors develop a framework to assess and manage fiscal risk in Bulgaria. Bulgaria's Currency Board Arrangement has effectively imposed fiscal discipline, but leaves only limited room to accommodate potential fiscal shocks. Through risks embedded in the portfolio of government contingent and direct liabilities, significant fiscal pressures could arise in the future. Major sources of risk include environmental liabilities and investment requirements, collection capacities of the social protection institutions, and further engagement in off-budget programs, such as government guarantees. To limit the Government's exposure to risks, yet accommodate investment needs crucial to growth and development, Bulgaria must find an optimal strategy for liability management, fiscal reserves, and risk mitigation. Priorities for dealing with existing risks and limiting further accumulation of risks include: 1) Mitigating currency and interest rate risks in the government liability structure. 2) Implementing proposed institutional and finance reform of the country's pension and health care systems. 3) Building adequate contingency reserves. 4) Introducing risk-sharing arrangements. 5) Prioritizing and placing strict limits on the amounts of new guaranteed obligations. 6) Developing government capacity to analyze and manage risks. 7) Fully integrating fiscal risk management with other policy considerations in fiscal management, as part of an integrated asset and liability management strategy.