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2. Are Land‐Use Change Emissions in Southeast Asia Decreasing or Increasing?

Author

Kondo, Masayuki, Sitch, Stephen, Ciais, Philippe, Achard, Frédéric, Kato, Etsushi, Pongratz, Julia, Houghton, Richard A, Canadell, Josep G, Patra, Prabir K, Friedlingstein, Pierre, Li, Wei, Anthoni, Peter, Arneth, Almut, Chevallier, Frédéric, Ganzenmüller, Raphael, Harper, Anna, Jain, Atul K, Koven, Charles, Lienert, Sebastian, Lombardozzi, Danica, Maki, Takashi, Nabel, Julia EMS, Nakamura, Takashi, Niwa, Yosuke, Peylin, Philippe, Poulter, Benjamin, Pugh, Thomas AM, Rödenbeck, Christian, Saeki, Tazu, Stocker, Benjamin, Viovy, Nicolas, Wiltshire, Andy, and Zaehle, Sönke

Subjects
Earth Sciences, Atmospheric Sciences, Aging, Life on Land, Southeast Asia, land-use changes, Dynamic Global Vegetation Models, book-keeping models, forest area, atmospheric inversions, Geochemistry, Oceanography, Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences, Geoinformatics, Climate change impacts and adaptation
Abstract

Southeast Asia is a region known for active land-use changes (LUC) over the past 60 years; yet, how trends in net CO2 uptake and release resulting from LUC activities (net LUC flux) have changed through past decades remains uncertain. The level of uncertainty in net LUC flux from process-based models is so high that it cannot be concluded that newer estimates are necessarily more reliable than older ones. Here, we examined net LUC flux estimates of Southeast Asia for the 1980s−2010s from older and newer sets of Dynamic Global Vegetation Model simulations (TRENDY v2 and v7, respectively), and forcing data used for running those simulations, along with two book-keeping estimates (H&N and BLUE). These estimates yielded two contrasting historical LUC transitions, such that TRENDY v2 and H&N showed a transition from increased emissions from the 1980s to 1990s to declining emissions in the 2000s, while TRENDY v7 and BLUE showed the opposite transition. We found that these contrasting transitions originated in the update of LUC forcing data, which reduced the loss of forest area during the 1990s. Further evaluation of remote sensing studies, atmospheric inversions, and the history of forestry and environmental policies in Southeast Asia supported the occurrence of peak emissions in the 1990s and declining thereafter. However, whether LUC emissions continue to decline in Southeast Asia remains uncertain as key processes in recent years, such as conversion of peat forest to oil-palm plantation, are yet to be represented in the forcing data, suggesting a need for further revision.

Published
2022

4. On the use of Earth Observation to support estimates of national greenhouse gas emissions and sinks for the Global stocktake process: lessons learned from ESA-CCI RECCAP2

Author

Bastos, Ana, Ciais, Philippe, Sitch, Stephen, Aragão, Luiz E. O. C., Chevallier, Frédéric, Fawcett, Dominic, Rosan, Thais M., Saunois, Marielle, Günther, Dirk, Perugini, Lucia, Robert, Colas, Deng, Zhu, Pongratz, Julia, Ganzenmüller, Raphael, Fuchs, Richard, Winkler, Karina, Zaehle, Sönke, and Albergel, Clément

Published
2022
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5. The consolidated European synthesis of CO2 emissions and removals for the European Union and United Kingdom: 1990–2020

Author

McGrath, Matthew J., primary, Petrescu, Ana Maria Roxana, additional, Peylin, Philippe, additional, Andrew, Robbie M., additional, Matthews, Bradley, additional, Dentener, Frank, additional, Balkovič, Juraj, additional, Bastrikov, Vladislav, additional, Becker, Meike, additional, Broquet, Gregoire, additional, Ciais, Philippe, additional, Fortems-Cheiney, Audrey, additional, Ganzenmüller, Raphael, additional, Grassi, Giacomo, additional, Harris, Ian, additional, Jones, Matthew, additional, Knauer, Jürgen, additional, Kuhnert, Matthias, additional, Monteil, Guillaume, additional, Munassar, Saqr, additional, Palmer, Paul I., additional, Peters, Glen P., additional, Qiu, Chunjing, additional, Schelhaas, Mart-Jan, additional, Tarasova, Oksana, additional, Vizzarri, Matteo, additional, Winkler, Karina, additional, Balsamo, Gianpaolo, additional, Berchet, Antoine, additional, Briggs, Peter, additional, Brockmann, Patrick, additional, Chevallier, Frédéric, additional, Conchedda, Giulia, additional, Crippa, Monica, additional, Dellaert, Stijn N. C., additional, Denier van der Gon, Hugo A. C., additional, Filipek, Sara, additional, Friedlingstein, Pierre, additional, Fuchs, Richard, additional, Gauss, Michael, additional, Gerbig, Christoph, additional, Guizzardi, Diego, additional, Günther, Dirk, additional, Houghton, Richard A., additional, Janssens-Maenhout, Greet, additional, Lauerwald, Ronny, additional, Lerink, Bas, additional, Luijkx, Ingrid T., additional, Moulas, Géraud, additional, Muntean, Marilena, additional, Nabuurs, Gert-Jan, additional, Paquirissamy, Aurélie, additional, Perugini, Lucia, additional, Peters, Wouter, additional, Pilli, Roberto, additional, Pongratz, Julia, additional, Regnier, Pierre, additional, Scholze, Marko, additional, Serengil, Yusuf, additional, Smith, Pete, additional, Solazzo, Efisio, additional, Thompson, Rona L., additional, Tubiello, Francesco N., additional, Vesala, Timo, additional, and Walther, Sophia, additional

Published
2023
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7. Impacts of land use and environmental change on the Eastern European land carbon sink

Author

Winkler, Karina, primary, Yang, Hui, additional, Ganzenmüller, Raphael, additional, Fuchs, Richard, additional, Ceccherini, Guido, additional, Duveiller, Grégory, additional, Grassi, Giacomo, additional, Pongratz, Julia, additional, Bastos, Ana, additional, Shvidenko, Anatoly, additional, Araza, Arnan, additional, Herold, Martin, additional, and Ciais, Philippe, additional

Published
2023
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8. The consolidated European synthesis of CO2 emissions and removals for EU27 and UK: 1990–2020

Author

McGrath, Matthew Joseph, primary, Petrescu, Ana Maria Roxana, additional, Peylin, Philippe, additional, Andrew, Robbie M., additional, Matthews, Bradley, additional, Dentener, Frank, additional, Balkovič, Juraj, additional, Bastrikov, Vladislav, additional, Becker, Meike, additional, Broquet, Gregoire, additional, Ciais, Philippe, additional, Fortems, Audrey, additional, Ganzenmüller, Raphael, additional, Grassi, Giacomo, additional, Harris, Ian, additional, Jones, Matthew, additional, Knauer, Juergen, additional, Kuhnert, Matthias, additional, Monteil, Guillaume, additional, Munassar, Saqr, additional, Palmer, Paul I., additional, Peters, Glen P., additional, Qiu, Chunjing, additional, Schelhaas, Mart-Jan, additional, Tarasova, Oksana, additional, Vizzarri, Matteo, additional, Winkler, Karina, additional, Balsamo, Gianpaolo, additional, Berchet, Antoine, additional, Briggs, Peter, additional, Brockmann, Patrick, additional, Chevallier, Frédéric, additional, Conchedda, Giulia, additional, Crippa, Monica, additional, Dellaert, Stijn, additional, Denier van der Gon, Hugo A. C., additional, Filipek, Sara, additional, Friedlingstein, Pierre, additional, Fuchs, Richard, additional, Gauss, Michael, additional, Gerbig, Christoph, additional, Guizzardi, Diego, additional, Günther, Dirk, additional, Houghton, Richard A., additional, Janssens-Maenhout, Greet, additional, Lauerwald, Ronny, additional, Lerink, Bas, additional, Luijkx, Ingrid T., additional, Moulas, Géraud, additional, Muntean, Marilena, additional, Nabuurs, Gert-Jan, additional, Paquirissamy, Aurélie, additional, Perugini, Lucia, additional, Peters, Wouter, additional, Pilli, Roberto, additional, Pongratz, Julia, additional, Regnier, Pierre, additional, Scholze, Marko, additional, Serengil, Yusuf, additional, Smith, Pete, additional, Solazzo, Efisio, additional, Thompson, Rona L., additional, Tubiello, Francesco N., additional, Vesala, Timo, additional, and Walther, Sophia, additional

Published
2023
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9. Supplementary material to "The consolidated European synthesis of CO2 emissions and removals for EU27 and UK: 1990–2020"

Author

McGrath, Matthew Joseph, primary, Petrescu, Ana Maria Roxana, additional, Peylin, Philippe, additional, Andrew, Robbie M., additional, Matthews, Bradley, additional, Dentener, Frank, additional, Balkovič, Juraj, additional, Bastrikov, Vladislav, additional, Becker, Meike, additional, Broquet, Gregoire, additional, Ciais, Philippe, additional, Fortems, Audrey, additional, Ganzenmüller, Raphael, additional, Grassi, Giacomo, additional, Harris, Ian, additional, Jones, Matthew, additional, Knauer, Juergen, additional, Kuhnert, Matthias, additional, Monteil, Guillaume, additional, Munassar, Saqr, additional, Palmer, Paul I., additional, Peters, Glen P., additional, Qiu, Chunjing, additional, Schelhaas, Mart-Jan, additional, Tarasova, Oksana, additional, Vizzarri, Matteo, additional, Winkler, Karina, additional, Balsamo, Gianpaolo, additional, Berchet, Antoine, additional, Briggs, Peter, additional, Brockmann, Patrick, additional, Chevallier, Frédéric, additional, Conchedda, Giulia, additional, Crippa, Monica, additional, Dellaert, Stijn, additional, Denier van der Gon, Hugo A. C., additional, Filipek, Sara, additional, Friedlingstein, Pierre, additional, Fuchs, Richard, additional, Gauss, Michael, additional, Gerbig, Christoph, additional, Guizzardi, Diego, additional, Günther, Dirk, additional, Houghton, Richard A., additional, Janssens-Maenhout, Greet, additional, Lauerwald, Ronny, additional, Lerink, Bas, additional, Luijkx, Ingrid T., additional, Moulas, Géraud, additional, Muntean, Marilena, additional, Nabuurs, Gert-Jan, additional, Paquirissamy, Aurélie, additional, Perugini, Lucia, additional, Peters, Wouter, additional, Pilli, Roberto, additional, Pongratz, Julia, additional, Regnier, Pierre, additional, Scholze, Marko, additional, Serengil, Yusuf, additional, Smith, Pete, additional, Solazzo, Efisio, additional, Thompson, Rona L., additional, Tubiello, Francesco N., additional, Vesala, Timo, additional, and Walther, Sophia, additional

Published
2023
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10. The consolidated European synthesis of CO2 emissions and removals for EU27 and UK: 1990–2020

Author

McGrath, Matthew Joseph, Petrescu, Ana-Maria-Roxana, Peylin, Philippe, Andrew, Robbie M., Matthews, Bradley, Dentener, Frank J., Balkovič, Juraj, Bastrikov, Vladislav, Becker, Meike, Broquet, Gregoire, Ciais, Philippe, Fortems-Cheiney, Audrey, Ganzenmüller, Raphael, Grassi, Giacomo, Harris, Ian, Jones, Matthew W., Knauer, Jürgen, Kuhnert, Matthias, Monteil, Guillaume, Munassar, Saqr, Palmer, Paul I., Peters, Glen P., Qiu, Chunjing, Schelhaas, Mart Jan, Tarasova, Oksana A., Vizzarri, Matteo, Winkler, Karina, Balsamo, Gianpaolo, Berchet, Antoine, Briggs, Peter, Brockmann, Patrick, Chevallier, Frederic, Conchedda, Giulia, Crippa, Monica, Dellaert, Stijn, A. C. Denier Van Der Gon, Hugo, Filipek, Sara, Friedlingstein, Pierre, Fuchs, Richard, Gauss, Michael, Gerbig, Christoph, Guizzardi, Diego, Günther, Dirk, Houghton, Richard A., Janssens-Maenhout, Greet, Lauerwald, Ronny, Lerink, Bas, Van Der Laan-Luijkx, Ingrid T., Moulas, Geraud, Muntean, Marilena, Nabuurs, Gert Jan, Paquirissamy, Aurélie, Perugini, Lucia, Peters, Wouter, Pilli, Roberto, Pongratz, Julia, Regnier, Pierre, Scholze, Marko, Serengil, Yusuf, Smith, Pete, Solazzo, Efisio, Thompson, Rona L., N. Tubiello, Francesco, Vesala, Timo, and Walther, Sophia

Published
2023

12. Additional file 1 of On the use of Earth Observation to support estimates of national greenhouse gas emissions and sinks for the Global stocktake process: lessons learned from ESA-CCI RECCAP2

Author

Bastos, Ana, Ciais, Philippe, Sitch, Stephen, Aragão, Luiz E. O. C., Chevallier, Frédéric, Fawcett, Dominic, Rosan, Thais M., Saunois, Marielle, Günther, Dirk, Perugini, Lucia, Robert, Colas, Deng, Zhu, Pongratz, Julia, Ganzenmüller, Raphael, Fuchs, Richard, Winkler, Karina, Zaehle, Sönke, and Albergel, Clément

Abstract

Additional file 1: Supplementary Information.

Published
2022
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13. The consolidated European synthesis of 1 CO2 emissions and removals for EU27 and UK: 1990-2020.

Author

McGrath, Matthew Joseph, Petrescu, Ana Maria Roxana, Peylin, Philippe, Andrew, Robbie M., Matthews, Bradley, Dentener, Frank, Balkovič, Juraj, Bastrikov, Vladislav, Becker, Meike, Broquet, Gregoire, Ciais, Philippe, Fortems, Audrey, Ganzenmüller, Raphael, Grassi, Giacomo, Harris, Ian, Jones, Matthew, Knauer, Juergen, Kuhnert, Matthias, Monteil, Guillaume, and Munassar, Saqr

Subjects
ATMOSPHERIC models, EMISSION inventories, CARBON dioxide, LAND use, GREENHOUSE gases, ATMOSPHERIC methane, CLIMATE change
Abstract

Quantification of land surface-atmosphere fluxes of carbon dioxide (CO2) fluxes and their trends and uncertainties is essential for monitoring progress of the EU27+UK bloc as it strives to meet ambitious targets determined by both international agreements and internal regulation. This study provides a consolidated synthesis of fossil sources (CO2 fossil) and natural sources and sinks over land (CO2 land) using bottom-up (BU) and top-down (TD) approaches for the European Union and United Kingdom (EU27+UK), updating earlier syntheses (Petrescu et al., 2020, 2021b). Given the wide scope of the work and the variety of approaches involved, this study aims to answer essential questions identified in the previous syntheses and understand the differences between datasets, particularly for poorly characterized fluxes from managed ecosystems. The work integrates updated emission inventory data, process-based model results, data-driven sectoral model results, and inverse modeling estimates, extending the previous period 1990-2018 to the year 2020 to the extent possible. BU and TD products are compared with European National Greenhouse Gas Inventories (NGHGIs) reported by Parties including the year 2019 under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). The uncertainties of the EU27+UK NGHGI were evaluated using the standard deviation reported by the EU Member States following the guidelines of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and harmonized by gap-filling procedures. Variation in estimates produced with other methods, such as atmospheric inversion models (TD) or spatially disaggregated inventory datasets (BU), originate from within-model uncertainty related to parameterization as well as structural differences between models. By comparing NGHGIs with other approaches, key sources of differences between estimates arise primarily in activities. System boundaries and emission categories create differences in CO2 fossil datasets, while different land use definitions for reporting emissions from Land Use, Land Use Change and Forestry (LULUCF) activities result in differences for CO2 land. The latter has important consequences for atmospheric inversions, leading to inversions reporting stronger sinks in vegetation and soils than are reported by the NGHGI. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Published
2023
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16. The consolidated European synthesis of CO2 emissions and removals for the European Union and United Kingdom: 1990-2018

Author

Petrescu, Ana Maria Roxana, McGrath, Matthew, Andrew, Robbie, Peylin, Philippe, Peters, Glen, Ciais, Philippe, Broquet, Gregoire, Tubiello, Francesco, Gerbig, Christoph, Pongratz, Julia, Janssens-Maenhout, Greet, Grassi, Giacomo, Nabuurs, Gert-Jan, Regnier, Pierre, Lauerwald, Ronny, Kuhnert, Matthias, Balkovič, Juraj, Schelhaas, Mart-Jan, Denier Van Der Gon, Hugo, Solazzo, Efisio, Qiu, Chunjing, Pilli, Roberto, Konovalov, Igor, Houghton, Richard, Günther, Dirk, Perugini, Lucia, Crippa, Monica, Ganzenmüller, Raphael, Luijkx, Ingrid, Smith, Pete, Munassar, Saqr, Thompson, Rona, Conchedda, Giulia, Monteil, Guillaume, Scholze, Marko, Karstens, Ute, Brockmann, Patrick, Dolman, Albertus Johannes, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam [Amsterdam] (VU), Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette] (LSCE), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), Center for International Climate and Environmental Research [Oslo] (CICERO), University of Oslo (UiO), Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations [Rome, Italie] (FAO), Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry (MPI-BGC), Max-Planck-Gesellschaft, Ludwig Maximilians University of Munich, Max Planck Institute for Meteorology (MPI-M), European Commission - Joint Research Centre [Ispra] (JRC), Wageningen Environmental Research (Alterra), Université libre de Bruxelles (ULB), Ecologie fonctionnelle et écotoxicologie des agroécosystèmes (ECOSYS), AgroParisTech-Université Paris-Saclay-Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement (INRAE), European Research Council Synergy project, French National Research Agency (ANR), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Ludwig-Maximilians University [Munich] (LMU), Earth and Climate, and Earth Sciences

Subjects
Meteorologie en Luchtkwaliteit, WIMEK, Meteorology and Air Quality, [SDE.MCG]Environmental Sciences/Global Changes, [SDU.STU]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences, Généralités, Luchtkwaliteit, PE&RC, Air Quality, [SDU]Sciences of the Universe [physics], SDG 13 - Climate Action, Life Science, Vegetatie, Bos- en Landschapsecologie, Vegetation, Forest and Landscape Ecology, [SDU.ENVI]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Continental interfaces, environment
Abstract

Reliable quantification of the sources and sinks of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2), including that of their trends and uncertainties, is essential to monitoring the progress in mitigating anthropogenic emissions under the Kyoto Protocol and the Paris Agreement. This study provides a consolidated synthesis of estimates for all anthropogenic and natural sources and sinks of CO2 for the European Union and UK (EU27 + UK), derived from a combination of state-of-the-art bottom-up (BU) and top-down (TD) data sources and models. Given the wide scope of the work and the variety of datasets involved, this study focuses on identifying essential questions which need to be answered to properly understand the differences between various datasets, in particular with regards to the less-well-characterized fluxes from managed ecosystems. The work integrates recent emission inventory data, process-based ecosystem model results, data-driven sector model results and inverse modeling estimates over the period 1990-2018. BU and TD products are compared with European national greenhouse gas inventories (NGHGIs) reported under the UNFCCC in 2019, aiming to assess and understand the differences between approaches. For the uncertainties in NGHGIs, we used the standard deviation obtained by varying parameters of inventory calculations, reported by the member states following the IPCC Guidelines. Variation in estimates produced with other methods, like atmospheric inversion models (TD) or spatially disaggregated inventory datasets (BU), arises from diverse sources including within-model uncertainty related to parameterization as well as structural differences between models. In comparing NGHGIs with other approaches, a key source of uncertainty is that related to different system boundaries and emission categories (CO2 fossil) and the use of different land use definitions for reporting emissions from land use, land use change and forestry (LULUCF) activities (CO2 land). At the EU27 + UK level, the NGHGI (2019) fossil CO2 emissions (including cement production) account for 2624 Tg CO2 in 2014 while all the other seven bottom-up sources are consistent with the NGHGIs and report a mean of 2588 (± 463 Tg CO2). The inversion reports 2700 Tg CO2 (± 480 Tg CO2), which is well in line with the national inventories. Over 2011-2015, the CO2 land sources and sinks from NGHGI estimates report-90 Tg C yr-1 ± 30 Tg C yr-1 while all other BU approaches report a mean sink of-98 Tg C yr-1 (± 362 Tg of C from dynamic global vegetation models only). For the TD model ensemble results, we observe a much larger spread for regional inversions (i.e. mean of 253 Tg C yr-1 ± 400 Tg C yr-1). This concludes that (a) current independent approaches are consistent with NGHGIs and (b) their uncertainty is too large to allow a verification because of model differences and probably also because of the definition of "CO2 flux"obtained from different approaches. The referenced datasets related to figures are visualized., SCOPUS: re.j, info:eu-repo/semantics/published

Published
2021

17. Land-use harmonization datasets for annual global carbon budgets

Author

Chini, Louise, primary, Hurtt, George, additional, Sahajpal, Ritvik, additional, Frolking, Steve, additional, Klein Goldewijk, Kees, additional, Sitch, Stephen, additional, Ganzenmüller, Raphael, additional, Ma, Lei, additional, Ott, Lesley, additional, Pongratz, Julia, additional, and Poulter, Benjamin, additional

Published
2021
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18. Second bottom-up model simulations : Deliverably D3.5

Author

Ganzenmüller, Raphael, Balkovič, Juraj, Walther, Sophia, Kuhnert, Matthias, Vizzarri, Matteo, Schelhaas, M., Schepaschenko, Dmitry, Krasovskii, A., Nabuurs, G.J., Lerink, B.J.W., Caldas Paulo, M.J., Pilli, Roberto, Blujdea, Viorel, and Grassi, Giacomo

Subjects
Biometris, Life Science, Vegetatie, Bos- en Landschapsecologie, Vegetation, Forest and Landscape Ecology, PE&RC
Abstract

Models play a crucial role in the quantification of GHG emissions. They can extrapolate and interpolate measurements spatially and temporally. Different models are designed for different purposes, from data-driven models that make the most efficient use of existing data, to process-based models which provide increased resolution of underlying driving mechanisms. VERIFY incorporates a wide variety of different model types to enable the system to respond to a far-reaching host of questions.Therefore, the aim of this WP is to simulate terrestrial carbon fluxes in both natural and anthropogenic systems. Using harmonized input data collected and reported on in D3.2, WP3 produced a variety of gridded flux and stock estimates of carbon within Europe. This particular deliverable shows carbon dioxide emissions from croplands, grasslands, and forests across the continent, using a variety of approaches. These approaches include models making extensive use of country-level statistics, those aiming for comprehensive descriptions of ecosystem processes, and statistical upscaling of site-level results to the continental scale.This deliverable provides details about the results of the second round of simulations from the bottom-up land models. Simulation methods will be improved during the course of the project, reflecting new scientific and technical understanding.

Published
2021

19. Tracking 21st century anthropogenic and natural carbon fluxes through model-data integration.

Author

Bultan, Selma, Nabel, Julia E. M. S., Hartung, Kerstin, Ganzenmüller, Raphael, Xu, Liang, Saatchi, Sassan, and Pongratz, Julia

Subjects
DATA integration, CARBON cycle, PARIS Agreement (2016), CARBON, LAND cover
Abstract

Monitoring the implementation of emission commitments under the Paris agreement relies on accurate estimates of terrestrial carbon fluxes. Here, we assimilate a 21st century observation-based time series of woody vegetation carbon densities into a bookkeeping model (BKM). This approach allows us to disentangle the observation-based carbon fluxes by terrestrial woody vegetation into anthropogenic and environmental contributions. Estimated emissions (from land-use and land cover changes) between 2000 and 2019 amount to 1.4 PgC yr−1, reducing the difference to other carbon cycle model estimates by up to 88% compared to previous estimates with the BKM (without the data assimilation). Our estimates suggest that the global woody vegetation carbon sink due to environmental processes (1.5 PgC yr−1) is weaker and more susceptible to interannual variations and extreme events than estimated by state-of-the-art process-based carbon cycle models. These findings highlight the need to advance model-data integration to improve estimates of the terrestrial carbon cycle under the Global Stocktake. Accurate estimates of carbon fluxes are important to our understanding of the carbon cycle. Here, via model-data integration, the authors disentangle anthropogenic and environmental carbon flux contributions of terrestrial woody vegetation, and find that environmental processes are weaker and more susceptible to interannual variations and extreme events in the 21st century than previously estimated. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Published
2022
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20. Bookkeeping estimates of the net land-use change flux – a sensitivity study with the CMIP6 land-use dataset

Author

Hartung, Kerstin, primary, Bastos, Ana, additional, Chini, Louise, additional, Ganzenmüller, Raphael, additional, Havermann, Felix, additional, Hurtt, George C., additional, Loughran, Tammas, additional, Nabel, Julia E. M. S., additional, Nützel, Tobias, additional, Obermeier, Wolfgang A., additional, and Pongratz, Julia, additional

Published
2021
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21. A multi-data assessment of land use and land cover emissions from Brazil during 2000–2019

Author

Rosan, Thais M, primary, Klein Goldewijk, Kees, additional, Ganzenmüller, Raphael, additional, O’Sullivan, Michael, additional, Pongratz, Julia, additional, Mercado, Lina M, additional, Aragao, Luiz E O C, additional, Heinrich, Viola, additional, Von Randow, Celso, additional, Wiltshire, Andrew, additional, Tubiello, Francesco N, additional, Bastos, Ana, additional, Friedlingstein, Pierre, additional, and Sitch, Stephen, additional

Published
2021
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23. Assessment of land use and land cover datasets for Brazil and impact on C emissions

Author

Rosan, Thais M., primary, Goldewijk, Kees Klein, additional, Ganzenmüller, Raphael, additional, O'Sullivan, Michael, additional, Pongratz, Julia, additional, Mercado, Lina M., additional, Aragao, Luiz E. O. C., additional, Heinrich, Viola, additional, Von Randow, Celso, additional, Wiltshire, Andrew, additional, Tubiello, Francesco N., additional, Bastos, Ana, additional, Friedlingstein, Pierre, additional, and Sitch, Stephen, additional

Published
2021
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24. Net land-use change carbon flux estimates and sensitivities – An assessment with a bookkeeping model based on CMIP6 forcing

Author

Hartung, Kerstin, primary, Bastos, Ana, additional, Chini, Louise, additional, Ganzenmüller, Raphael, additional, Havermann, Felix, additional, Hurtt, George C., additional, Loughran, Tammas, additional, Nabel, Julia E. M. S., additional, Nützel, Tobias, additional, Obermeier, Wolfgang A., additional, and Pongratz, Julia, additional

Published
2021
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25. The consolidated European synthesis of CO2 emissions and removals for EU27 and UK: 1990-2018

Author

Maria Roxana Petrescu, Ana, McGrath, Matthew J., Andrew, Robbie M., Peylin, Philippe, Peters, Glen P., Ciais, Philippe, Broquet, Grégoire, Tubiello, Francesco N., Gerbig, Christoph, Pongratz, Julia, Janssens-Maenhout, Greet, Grassi, Giacomo, Nabuurs, G.J., Regnier, Pierre, Lauerwald, Ronny, Kuhnert, Matthias, Balkovic, Juraj, Schelhaas, M., Denier Van Der Gon, Hugo A.C., Solazzo, Efisio, Qiu, Chunjing, Pilli, Roberto, Konovalov, Igor B., Houghton, Richard A., Günther, Dirk, Perugini, Lucia, Crippa, Monica, Ganzenmüller, Raphael, van der Laan-Luijkx, I.T., Smith, Pete, Munassar, S., Thompson, Rona L., Conchedda, Giulia, Monteil, Guillaume, Scholze, Marko, Karstens, U., Brokman, Patrick, and Dolman, Han

Subjects
WIMEK, Life Science, Vegetatie, Bos- en Landschapsecologie, Vegetation, Forest and Landscape Ecology, Luchtkwaliteit, PE&RC, Air Quality
Abstract

Reliable quantification of the sources and sinks of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2), including that of their trends and uncertainties, is essential to monitoring the progress in mitigating anthropogenic emissions under the Kyoto Protocol and the Paris Agreement. This study provides a consolidated synthesis of estimates for all anthropogenic and natural sources and sinks of CO2 for the European Union and UK (EU27 + UK), derived from a combination of state-of-the-art bottom-up (BU) and top-down (TD) data sources and models. Given the wide scope of the work and the variety of datasets involved, this study focuses on identifying essential questions which need to be answered to properly understand the differences between various datasets, in particular with regards to the less-well characterized fluxes from managed ecosystems. The work integrates recent emission inventory data, process-based ecosystem model results, data-driven sector model results, and inverse modelling estimates, over the period 1990–2018. BU and TD products are compared with European national GHG inventories (NGHGI) reported under the UNFCCC in 2019, aiming to assess and understand the differences between approaches. For the uncertainties in NGHGI, we used the standard deviation obtained by varying parameters of inventory calculations, reported by the Member States following the IPCC guidelines. Variation in estimates produced with other methods, like atmospheric inversion models (TD) or spatially disaggregated inventory datasets (BU), arise from diverse sources including within-model uncertainty related to parameterization as well as structural differences between models. In comparing NGHGI with other approaches, a key source of uncertainty is that related to different system boundaries and emission categories (CO2 fossil) and the use of different land use definitions for reporting emissions from Land Use, Land Use Change and Forestry (LULUCF) activities (CO2 land). At the EU27 + UK level, the NGHGI (2019) fossil CO2 emissions (including cement production) account for 2624 Tg CO2 in 2014 while all the other seven bottom-up sources are consistent with the NGHGI and report a mean of 2588 (± 463 Tg CO2). The inversion reports 2700 Tg CO2 (± 480 Tg CO2), well in line with the national inventories. Over 2011–2015, the CO2 land sources/sinks from NGHGI estimates report −90 Tg C yr−1 ± 30 Tg C while all other BU approaches report a mean sink of −98 Tg yr−1 (± 362 Tg C from DGVMs only). For the TD model ensemble results, we observe a much larger spread for regional inversions (i.e., mean of 253 Tg C yr−1 ± 400 T g C yr−1). This concludes that a) current independent approaches are consistent with NGHGI b) their uncertainty is too large to allow a verification because of model differences and probably also because of the definition of CO2 flux obtained from different approaches. The referenced datasets related to figures are visualized at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.4288883 (Petrescu et al., 2020).

Published
2020

26. The consolidated European synthesis of CO<sub>2</sub> emissions and removals for EU27 and UK: 1990–2018

Author

Petrescu, Ana Maria Roxana, primary, McGrath, Matthew J., additional, Andrew, Robbie M., additional, Peylin, Philippe, additional, Peters, Glen P., additional, Ciais, Philippe, additional, Broquet, Gregoire, additional, Tubiello, Francesco N., additional, Gerbig, Christoph, additional, Pongratz, Julia, additional, Janssens-Maenhout, Greet, additional, Grassi, Giacomo, additional, Nabuurs, Gert-Jan, additional, Regnier, Pierre, additional, Lauerwald, Ronny, additional, Kuhnert, Matthias, additional, Balcovič, Juraj, additional, Schelhaas, Mart-Jan, additional, Denier van der Gon, Hugo A. C., additional, Solazzo, Efisio, additional, Qiu, Chunjing, additional, Pilli, Roberto, additional, Konovalov, Igor B., additional, Houghton, Richard, additional, Günther, Dirk, additional, Perugini, Lucia, additional, Crippa, Monica, additional, Ganzenmüller, Raphael, additional, Luijkx, Ingrid T., additional, Smith, Pete, additional, Munassar, Saqr, additional, Thompson, Rona L., additional, Conchedda, Giulia, additional, Monteil, Guillaume, additional, Scholze, Marko, additional, Karstens, Ute, additional, Brokmann, Patrick, additional, and Dolman, Han, additional

Published
2020
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