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"Projections of Education Statistics to 2022" is the 41st report in a series begun in 1964. It includes statistics on elementary and secondary schools and postsecondary degree-granting institutions. This report provides revisions of projections shown in "Projections of Education Statistics to 2021" and projections of enrollment, graduates, teachers, and expenditures to the year 2022. In addition to projections at the national level, the report includes projections of public elementary and secondary school enrollment and public high school graduates to the year 2022 at the state level. The projections in this report were produced by the National Center for Education Statistics (NCES) to provide researchers, policy analysts, and others with state-level projections developed using a consistent methodology. Assumptions regarding the population and the economy are the key factors underlying the projections of education statistics. NCES projections do not reflect changes in national, state, or local education policies that may affect education statistics. Appended are: (1) Introduction to Projection Methodology; (2) Supplementary Tables; (3) Data Sources; (4) References; (5) List of Abbreviations; and (6) Glossary. [This report was prepared with IHS Global Insight. For "Projections of Education Statistics to 2021. Fortieth Edition. NCES 2013-008," see ED538495.]

"Projections of Education Statistics to 2021" is the 40th report in a series begun in 1964. It includes statistics on elementary and secondary schools and postsecondary degree-granting institutions. This report provides revisions of projections shown in "Projections of Education Statistics to 2020" and projections of enrollment, graduates, teachers, and expenditures to the year 2021. In addition to projections at the national level, the report includes projections of public elementary and secondary school enrollment and public high school graduates to the year 2021 at the state level. The projections in this report were produced by the National Center for Education Statistics (NCES) to provide researchers, policy analysts, and others with state-level projections developed using a consistent methodology. They are not intended to supplant detailed projections prepared for individual states. Assumptions regarding the population and the economy are the key factors underlying the projections of education statistics. NCES projections do not reflect changes in national, state, or local education policies that may affect education statistics. Appended are: (1) Introduction to Projection Methodology; (2) Supplementary Tables; (3) Data Sources; (4) References; (5) List of Abbreviations; and (6) Glossary. (Contains 77 tables, 27 figures and 1 footnote.) [For "Projections of Education Statistics to 2020. Thirty-Ninth Edition. NCES 2011-026," see ED524098.]

"Projections of Education Statistics to 2020" is the 39th report in a series begun in 1964. It includes statistics on elementary and secondary schools and postsecondary degree-granting institutions. This report provides revisions of projections shown in "Projections of Education Statistics to 2019". Included are projections of enrollment, graduates, teachers, and expenditures to the year 2020. In addition to projections at the national level, the report includes projections of public elementary and secondary school enrollment and public high school graduates to the year 2020 at the state level. The projections in this report were produced by the National Center for Education Statistics (NCES) to provide researchers, policy analysts, and others with state-level projections developed using a consistent methodology. They are not intended to supplant detailed projections prepared for individual states. This report is organized by the level of schooling with sections 1, 2, 3, and 4 covering aspects of elementary and secondary education and sections 5 and 6 covering aspects of postsecondary education. Appended are: (1) Introduction to Projection Methodology; (2) Supplementary Tables; (3) Data Sources; (4) References; (5) List of Abbreviations; and (6) Glossary. (Contains 78 tables and 28 figures.) [For "Projections of Education Statistics to 2019. Thirty-Eighth Edition. NCES 2011-017," see ED517134.]

"Projections of Education Statistics to 2019" is the 38th report in a series begun in 1964. It includes statistics on elementary and secondary schools and degree-granting institutions. This report provides revisions of projections shown in "Projections of Education Statistics to 2018." Included are projections of enrollment, graduates, teachers, and expenditures to the year 2019. This is the first edition of the "Projections of Education Statistics" to include projections of elementary and secondary school enrollment and high school graduates by race/ethnicity. In addition to projections at the national level, the report includes projections of public elementary and secondary school enrollment and public high school graduates to the year 2019 at the state level. The projections in this report were produced by the National Center for Education Statistics (NCES) to provide researchers, policy analysts, and others with state-level projections developed using a consistent methodology. Six appendixes are included: (1) Introduction to Projection Methodology; (2) Supplementary Tables; (3) Data Sources; (4) References; (5) List of Abbreviations; and (6) Glossary. (Contains 69 tables, 7 exhibits, and 28 figures.) [For "Projections of Education Statistics to 2018. Thirty-Seventh Edition. NCES 2009-062," see ED506451.]

"Projections of Education Statistics to 2018" is the 37th report in a series begun in 1964. It includes statistics on elementary and secondary schools and degree-granting institutions. Included are projections of enrollment, graduates, teachers, and expenditures to the year 2018. This is the first edition of the "Projections of Education Statistics" to include projections of first-time freshmen in public and private postsecondary institutions. In addition to projections at the national level, the report includes projections of public elementary and secondary school enrollment and public high school graduates to the year 2018 at the state level. The projections in this report were produced to provide researchers, policy analysts, and others with state-level projections developed using a consistent methodology. The projections presented in this report are based on the 2000 census and assumptions for the fertility rate, internal migration, net immigration, and mortality rate. Appendix A describes the methodology and assumptions used to develop the projections; appendix B presents supplementary tables; appendix C describes data sources; appendix D is a list of abbreviations; appendix E presents the references; and appendix F is a glossary of terms. (Contains 71 tables and 47 figures.) [For "Projections of Education Statistics to 2017. Thirty-Sixth Edition. NCES 2008-078," see ED502632.]

This edition of "Projections of Education Statistics" provides projections for key education statistics, including enrollment, graduates, degrees conferred, teachers, and expenditures in elementary and secondary schools. Included are national data on enrollment and graduates for the past 15 years and projections to the year 2017, as well as state-level data on enrollment in public elementary and secondary schools and public high school graduates to the year 2017. State-level data on enrollment and graduates in private schools are not included. This is the first edition of the "Projections of Education Statistics" to include projections of new teacher hires in public and private elementary and secondary schools. The summary of projections provides highlights of the national and state data, while the reference tables and figures present more detail. Appendix A describes the methodology and assumptions used to develop the projections, appendix B presents supplementary tables, appendix C describes data sources, appendix D is a list of abbreviations, and appendix E is a glossary of terms. (Contains 73 tables and 45 figures.) [For "Projections of Education Statistics to 2016. Thirty-Fifth Edition. NCES 2008-060," see ED499358.]

This report, the 35th in a series begun in 1964, provides revisions of projections shown in "Projections of Education Statistics to 2015." It includes statistics on elementary and secondary schools and degree-granting institutions. Included are projections of enrollment, graduates, teachers, and expenditures to the year 2016. In addition to projections at the national level, the report includes projections of public elementary and secondary school enrollment and public high school graduates to the year 2016 at the state level. The summary of projections provides highlights of the national and state data, while the reference tables and figures present more detail. This is the first edition of the "Projections of Education Statistics" to include projections of enrollment at degree-granting institutions by race/ethnicity. Appendix A describes the methodology and assumptions used to develop the projections, appendix B presents supplementary tables, appendix C describes data sources, appendix D is a list of abbreviations, and appendix E is a glossary of terms. (Contains 50 tables and 45 figures.) [For the thirty-fourth (2006) edition, see ED493426.]

"Projections of Education Statistics to 2015" is the 34th report in a series begun in 1964. This report provides revisions of projections shown in "Projections of Education Statistics to 2014." It includes statistics on elementary and secondary schools and degree-granting institutions. Included are projections of enrollment, graduates, teachers, and expenditures to the year 2015. In addition to projections at the national level, the report includes projections of public elementary and secondary school enrollment and public high school graduates to the year 2015 at the state level. This is the first edition of the "Projections of Education Statistics" to include projections of enrollment at degree-granting institutions by race/ethnicity. The summary of projections provides highlights of the national and state data, while the reference tables and figures present more detail. The following are appended: (1) Projection Methodology; (2) Supplementary Tables; (3) Data Sources; and (4) Glossary. (Contains 68 tables and 45 figures.) [For the thirty-third (2005) edition of this publication, see ED485958.]

"Pocket Projections" provide National Center for Education Statistics (NCES) information on projected enrollments at all education levels, numbers of high school graduates, earned degrees conferred, teachers, and expenditures. In addition, there is a state-level figure on public elementary and secondary enrollment. Each year, NCES publishes this pocket summary of the Projections of Education Statistics. The complete report, "Projections of Education Statistics to 2014," provides the reader with information on the projected enrollment at all levels, numbers of high school graduates, and earned degrees conferred. In this 16th edition of the "Pocket Projections," highlights for the the period 2002-03 to 2013-14 include: (1) Public and private elementary and secondary enrollment--3 percent increase; (2) Postsecondary enrollment in degree-granting institutions--16 percent increase; (3) High school graduates--5 percent increase; and (4) Bachelor's degrees--17 percent increase. [For the complete report, "Projections of Education Statistics to 2014," see ED485958. For "Pocket Projections of Education Statistics to 2013," see ED483096.]

"Projections of Education Statistics to 2014" is the 33rd report in a series begun in 1964. This report provides revisions of projections shown in "Projections of Education Statistics to 2013." It includes statistics on elementary and secondary schools and degree-granting institutions. Projections of enrollment, graduates, teachers, and expenditures to the year 2014 are also included. In addition to projections at the national level, the report includes projections of public elementary and secondary school enrollment and public high school graduates to the year 2014 at the state level. These projections were produced by the National Center for Education Statistics (NCES) to provide researchers, policy analysts, and others with state-level projections developed using a consistent methodology. They are not intended to supplant detailed projections prepared in individual states. Appended are: (1) Projection Methodology; (2) Supplementary Tables; (3) Data Sources; and (4) Glossary. (Contains 36 figures and 39 tables.)

This publication provides projections for key education statistics. It includes statistics on enrollment, graduates, teachers, and expenditures in elementary and secondary schools, and enrollment, earned degrees conferred, and current-fund expenditures of degree-granting institutions. For the Nation, the tables, figures, and text contain data on enrollment, teachers, graduates, and expenditures for the past 14 years and projections to the year 2013. For the 50 States and the District of Columbia, the tables, figures, and text contain data on projections of public elementary and secondary enrollment and public high school graduates to the year 2013. In addition, the report includes a methodology section describing models and assumptions used to develop national and state-level projections. Appended are: Projection Methodology; Supplementary Tables; Data Sources; and Glossary. (Contains 14 Summary of Projections figures, 36 Reference figures, 3 Summary of Projections tables, and 39 Reference tables.) (Author)

This report, 31st in a series begun in 1964, provides revisions of projections shown in "Projections of Education Statistics to 2011" and includes statistics on elementary and secondary schools and degree-granting institutions. Included are projections of enrollments and graduates to the year 2012. Projections of teachers and expenditures are not included in this edition, but they are available in "Projections of Education Statistics to 2011." This report also contains projections of public elementary and secondary school enrollment and public high school graduates to the year 2112 at the state level. These projections have been produced by the National Center for Education Statistics, but they are not intended to supplant detailed projections prepared in individual states. The report contains a methodology section describing models and assumptions used to develop the national and state projections. The enrollment models use data and population estimates and projections from the National Center for Education Statistics and the U.S. Census Bureau. Population projections are not based on the 200 Census data, which have not yet been released. Most of the projections of education statistics include three alternatives based on different assumptions about demographic and economic growth plans. The first set of projections (middle alternative) is deemed to represent the most likely projections, but the high and low alternatives provide a reasonable range of outcomes. Projections suggest a 1% increase in public and private elementary and secondary enrollment, with a slight decrease in the lower grades, and an increase of about 4% in the upper grades. Enrollment in degree-granting institutions is projected to increase 15% by 2011, and high school graduates are expected to increase by 9%. Four appendixes contain a discussion of the methodology, supplementary tables, a list of data sources, and a glossary. (Contains 44 figures and 49 tables.) (SLD)

Each year the National Center for Education Statistics publishes this pocket summary of the annual "Projections of Education Statistics." The complete report contains information on projected enrollment and graduates, teachers, and public elementary and secondary school expenditures. This summary, the 14th "pocket" edition, contains data for 1989-1990 and 2000-2001, with projections for 2011-2012 and information about the percent of change from 2000-2001 to 2011-2012. Tables present data for these periods for: (1) population by age; (2) elementary/secondary enrollment and high school graduates; and (3) degree-granting postsecondary education, with information about enrollment, age, and earned degrees. Technical notes explain how the projections were calculated. (SLD)

Each year the National Center for Education Statistics publishes this pocket summary of the annual Projections of Education Statistics. The complete report contains information on projected enrollment and graduates, teachers, and public elementary and secondary school expenditures. This summary contains figures for 1988-1989, estimates for 1999-2000, and projections for 2010-2011, with information about the percent of change from 1988-1989 to 1999-2000 and from 1999-2000 to 2010-2011. Tables present data for these periods for: (1) population by age; (2) elementary and secondary enrollment in public and private schools; (3) high school graduates; (4) numbers of classroom teachers; (5) pupil/teacher ratios; (6) elementary and secondary education expenditures; (7) enrollment in degree-granting postsecondary education; and (8) earned degrees. Technical notes explain how the projections were calculated. (SLD)

This report, 30th in a series begun in 1964, provides revisions to projections shown in "Projections of Education Statistics to 2010." It includes statistics on elementary and secondary schools and degree-granting institutions. Included are projections for enrollment, graduates, teachers, and expenditures to the year 2011. The report also included projections of public elementary and secondary enrollment and high school graduates to the year 2011 at the high school level. The projections in this report reflect revisions influenced by the 1990 Census, but exclude the net undercount of 4 to 5 million. Most of the projections include three alternatives, based on different assumptions about demographic and economic growth paths. The middle alternative, the first set of projections, is considered to represent the most likely scenario. Total public and private elementary and secondary enrollment is projected to increase from 52.9 million in 1999 to 53.4 million in 2005. Total enrollment is then projected to decrease to 53.0 million by 2011, resulting in a less than 1% increase from 1999 to 2011. Enrollment in degree-granting institutions is projected to increase by 20% over the period. Five appendixes contain a discussion of projection methodology, supplementary tables, data sources, a glossary, and a discussion of methodology for the Integrated Postsecondary Education Data System. (Contains 59 figures and 61 tables.) (SLD)

Each year, the National Center for Education Statistics publishes this pocket summary of the annual "Projections of Education Statistics." The complete report contains information on projected enrollment and graduates, teachers, and public elementary and secondary school expenditures. This summary contains figures for 1987-1988, estimates for 1998-1999, and projections for 2009-2010, with calculations of the percent of change from 1987-1988 to 1998.-1999 and 1998-1999 to 2009-2010. Tables present data for these periods for: (1) population (by age); (2) elementary and secondary enrollment in public and private schools; (3) high school graduates; (4) numbers of classroom teachers at elementary and secondary levels ; (5) pupil/teacher ratios; (6) elementary and secondary education expenditures; (7) higher education enrollment; (8) earned degrees; and (9) higher education expenditures. Technical notes explain the computation of the projections. (SLD)

This report provides statistics on elementary and secondary schools and institutions of higher education at the national level. Included are projections for enrollment, graduates, classroom teachers, and expenditures to the year 2010. The report also contains projections of public elementary and secondary enrollment and high school graduates to the year 2010 at the state level, although these projections are not intended to supplant detailed projections prepared in individual states. The projections in this report reflect revisions influenced by the 1990 census with the incorporation of 1999 estimates and the latest assumptions about fertility rate, net immigration, and mortality rate. The report contains a section on methodology that describes the models and assumptions used to develop the national projections. Projections are based on a cohort survival model, an age-specific enrollment rate model, smoothing models, and econometric models. Most projections include three alternatives based on different assumptions about growth paths. The first alternative set of projections, the middle alternative, is deemed to represent the most likely projection. In the forecast summary, national and state-level highlights and key demographic and economic assumptions underlying the projects are presented in chart 1. Total public and private elementary and secondary school enrollment is projected to increase 1% over the projection period. Enrollment in higher education is projected to increase 20% over the projection period. Four appendixes contain technical information, supplementary tables, remarks on data sources, and a glossary. (Contains 1 chart, 61 figures, 51 tables, and 29 supplementary tables.) (SLD)

Each year, the National Center for Education Statistics publishes this pocket summary of the annual "Projections of Education Statistics." The complete report contains information on projected enrollment at all ages, number of high school graduates, degrees conferred, classroom teachers, and public elementary and secondary school expenditures, with state-level tables on enrollment. This summary contains figures for 1986-87, estimates for 1997-98, and projections to 2008-09, with calculations of the percent of change from 1986-87 to 1997-98 and from 1997-98 to 2005-09. Tables present data for these periods for: (1) population by age; (2) elementary and secondary enrollment in public and private schools; (3) high school graduates from public and private schools; (4) classroom teachers in public and private schools; (5) public and private elementary and secondary pupil/teacher rations; (6) elementary and secondary public school expenditures; (7) higher education enrollment in public and private institutions; (8) earned degrees; and (9) higher education expenditures for public and private institutions. Technical notes explain the computation of projections. (SLD)

There will be a need for many newly hired teachers in the United States over the next 10 years as large numbers of teachers are expected to retire and enrollments are expected to increase. This report examines the problem using an algebraic model with no econometric analysis. It uses age-specific continuation rates of teachers from several different Schools and Staffing Surveys (SASS) of the National Center for Education Statistics to predict how many teachers will continue teaching from one year to another. The demand for teachers is taken as exogenous, and several scenarios are examined. The report assumes that the supply will meet the demand and that the age distribution of new teachers will be the same as the 1993-94 SASS distribution. Depending on the assumptions made, projections for the number of newly hired public school teachers needed by 2008-09 ranges from 1.7 million to 2.7 million. Some of these newly hired teachers will be needed to replace those leaving the profession, and others will be needed as enrollments continue to increase. The majority of the publication is comprised of statistical figures and tables, a technical appendix, and appendix tables. (Author/SM))

This report includes statistics on elementary and secondary schools and institutions of higher education at the national level. Included are projections for enrollment, graduates, classroom teachers, and expenditures to the year 2008. In addition, the report includes projections of enrollment in public elementary and secondary schools and high school graduates to the year 2009 at the state level. These projections reflect revisions influenced by the 1990 Census, the 1997 estimates, and the latest assumptions for fertility rate, net immigration, and mortality rate. A methodology section describes models and assumptions used to develop the projections, which are based on a cohort survival model, an age-specific enrollment rate model, exponential smoothing models, and econometric models. Most of the projections include three alternatives, based on different assumptions about growth paths. The first alternative, the middle projection, is considered the most likely. In the forecast summary, key demographic and economic assumptions are presented in chart 1 and selected education statistics are shown in figure 1. Total public and private elementary and secondary enrollment is projected to increase to 54.5 million in 2006 and remain constant through the year 2009. Higher education enrollment, however, is projected to increase by 14%, to 16.3 million, by the year 2009. Four appendixes contain technical information, supplementary tables, remarks on data sources, and a glossary. (Contains 1 chart, 71 figures, 52 tables; 26 methodological tables, and 13 supplementary tables. (SLD)

This document is the 27th report in a series begun in 1964. It provides revisions to projections shown in "Projections of Education Statistics to 2007" and includes statistics on elementary and secondary schools and institutions of higher education at the national level. Included are projections for enrollment, graduates, classroom teachers, and expenditures to the year 2008. The report also includes projections of public elementary and secondary enrollment and high school graduates to the year 2008 at the state level. These projections reflect revisions influenced by the 1990 Census with the incorporation of 1996 estimates and latest assumptions for the fertility rate, net immigration, and mortality rate. A methodology section describes the models and assumptions used to develop the national projections, which are based on a cohort survival model, an age-specific enrollment rate model, exponential smoothing models, and econometric models. Most of the projections include three alternatives based on different assumptions about growth paths. Total public and private elementary and secondary enrollment is projected to increase from 51.4 million in 1996 to 54.5 million in 2006, but then total enrollment is projected to decrease to 54.3 million by the year 2008. Higher education is projected to increase from an estimated 14.3 million in 1996 to 16.1 million by 2008. Increases are also projected for high school graduates, the number of bachelor's degrees, the number of classroom teachers, expenditures per pupil, and teacher salaries. Data are presented in 71 figures and 52 tables, with an additional 38 tables in 4 technical appendixes. A glossary and discussion of data sources are included in the technical appendixes. (SLD)

"Projections of Education Statistics to 2007" is the 26th report in a series begun in 1964 that revises projections annually to show statistics on elementary and secondary schools and institutions of higher education at the national level. Included are projections for enrollment, graduates, classroom teachers, and expenditures. In addition, this report contains projections of public school elementary and secondary enrollment and high school graduates to the year 2007 at the state level. These projections are not intended to supplant detailed projections prepared in the individual states. Projections in this report reflect revisions influenced by the 1990 Census and its 1995 estimates. A methodology section describes models and assumptions used to develop the projections, which are based on a cohort-survival model, an age-specific enrollment rate model, exponential smoothing models, and econometric models. Most of the projections include three alternatives, based on different assumptions about growth paths. The first alternative set, the middle alternative, is considered to be the most likely projection, but the high and low alternatives present a reasonable range of outcomes. Total public and private elementary and secondary school enrollment is projected to increase to 54.3 million by the year 2007, an increase of 7% from 1995. Higher education enrollment is projected to increase from an estimated 13.9 million in 1995 to 16.1 million in 2007. Accompanying these increases will be increases in the numbers of high school and college graduates and classroom teachers. Four appendixes contain technical information, supplementary tables, remarks on data sources, and a glossary. (Contains 1 chart, 71 figures, 52 tables, 26 methodological tables, and 12 supplementary tables.) (SLD)

Every year the National Center for Education Statistics publishes this pocket summary of the annual "Projections of Education Statistics." The complete report contains information on projected enrollment at all ages, numbers of high school graduates, degrees conferred, classroom teachers, and public elementary and secondary school expenditures, with state-level tables on enrollment. This summary contains figures for 1983-84, estimates for 1994-95, and projections to 2005-2006, with calculations of the percent of change from 1983-84 to 1994-95 and from 1994-95 to 2005-2006. Tables present data for these periods for: (1) population by age; (2) elementary and secondary enrollment in public and private schools; (3) high school graduates from public and private schools; (4) classroom teachers in public and private schools; (5) public and private elementary and secondary pupil/teacher ratios; (6) elementary and secondary school expenditures; (7) higher education enrollment in public and private institutions; (8) earned degrees; and (9) higher education expenditures for both the public and private institutions. Technical notes explain the computation of projections. (SLD)

Every year the National Center for Education Statistics publishes this pocket summary of projections of education statistics. These brief tables give a sampling of what is expected over the next decade, summarizing the complete book, "Projections of Education Statistics to 2005." It is expected that the population of persons aged 5 to 13 years will increase by 2005 by about 11%. The total enrollment in elementary and secondary education is expected to grow by about 14% from the 1993-94 figure of 48,824,000, with the greatest increases coming during the high school years. The projected high school enrollment by the year 2005, 15,985,000, is about 21% above that of 1993-94. High school graduates are expected to rise proportionately, as are the numbers of teachers. Expenditures for elementary and secondary education are expected to increase at an even greater rate, with the projected figure for 2005 anticipated to be 33% above that of 1993-94. Enrollment in higher education is expected to increase by 8% by 2005. While a slight increase is anticipated in the numbers of women receiving advanced degrees, the absolute numbers of men earning master's and doctor's degrees are expected to decline. Technical notes explain the projection methodology. (SLD)

"Pocket Projections" gives a sampling of what has happened in education in the last decade and what will happen in education over the next decade. In tabular form data are given for the following topics: (1) projected population; (2) elementary school and secondary school enrollment; (3) high school graduates; (4) classroom teachers; (5) pupil/teacher ratios; (6) expenditures; (7) higher education enrollment; (8) earned degrees; and (9) higher education expenditures. The figures are derived from data from the National Center for Education Statistics and the Census. The complete book "Projections of Education Statistics to 2004" provides additional information in these areas with supplemental tables. Ordering information for the complete report is included in this booklet. (SLD)

This edition is the 23rd report in a series begun in 1964. It includes projections for enrollment, graduates, classroom teachers, and expenditures to the year 2004. Projections reflect the 1990 Census, with the incorporation of 1992 estimates and assumptions for fertility rate, net immigration, and mortality rate. The report also contains a section on methodology, describing models and assumptions used to develop the national projections, which are based on an age-specific enrollment rate model, exponential smoothing models, and econometric models. Most of the projections include three alternatives, based on different assumptions about growth paths. Although the first alternative set of projections in each table is deemed to represent the most likely projection, the low and high alternatives provide a reasonable range of outcomes. Chart 1 provides an overall summary of forecast assumptions. Total enrollment for public and private elementary and secondary education and for higher education is projected to increase to 55.7 million over the projection period, with increases in the numbers of high school and college graduates, the numbers of teachers, and total expenditures. Data are presented in 62 graphs and 44 tables. Five technical appendixes about methodology contain an additional 35 tables. (SLD)

This issue brief presents projections for current expenditures in public elementary and secondary schools in the United States. The following areas are examined: the historical association between the economy and the level of expenditures; the importance of funds from state and federal governments; the effect of the next decade's anticipated enrollment increases on current expenditures; and factors that affect the accuracy of the projections for current expenditures per pupil. Four tables/graphs are included. (LMI)

This edition, 22nd of a series begun in 1964, provides revisions of projections shown in "Projections of Education Statistics to 2002," and includes statistics on elementary schools, secondary schools, and institutions of higher education at the national level. Included are projections for enrollment, graduates, classroom teachers, and expenditures to the year 2003. These projections reflect the 1990 census and assumptions of a higher fertility rate and net immigration, and a lower mortality rate than previously projected. A methodology section describes models and assumptions used to develop the projections, which are based on an age-specific enrollment rate model, exponential smoothing models, and econometric models. Most projections include three alternatives, based on different assumptions about growth paths. The first set of alternatives in each table is deemed to be the most likely. Total public and private elementary and secondary enrollment is projected to increase to 54.2 million over the projection period. Enrollments in public and private institutions of higher education are projected to increase over the projection period. One chart, 60 figures, and 44 tables present projections. Appendixes include: (1) projection methodology and 23 tables; (2) 11 supplementary tables; (3) data sources; and (4) a glossary. (SLD)

Each year the National Center for Education Statistics (NCES) publishes this pocket summary of the "Projections of Education Statistics." The tables give a sampling of what is expected to happen over the next 10 years in the following areas: (1) population by age group; (2) elementary school and secondary school enrollment; (3) high school graduates; (4) numbers of classroom teachers; (5) student/teacher ratios; (6) expenditures; (7) higher education enrollment; and (8) earned degrees. Using institutional data from the NCES and demographic data and projections from the Bureau of the Census, total enrollment is projected using expected enrollment rates. Exponential smoothing and multiple linear regression are the two major techniques used to project these rates. The complete book,"Projections of Education Statistics to 2002," contains similar projections plus state-level tables on public elementary school and secondary school enrollment and high school graduates as well as other supplementary information. (SLD)

This edition, 21st in a series, provides revisions of projections shown in the preceding volume and includes statistics on elementary and secondary schools and institutions of higher learning at the national level. Data include projections for enrollment, graduates, instructional staff, and expenditures to the year 2002. Selected projections are also given for the state level. This edition also includes a section on new developments in projecting education statistics that includes enrollment projections by race and ethnicity. A methodology section describes the ways that projections are made and the models used. Most projections include three or four alternatives based on different assumptions about growth. Public and private school enrollments are projected to increase in the period, passing the 1971 peak, with a reversal in the recent decline in secondary school enrollments. While enrollment in higher education is expected to increase, the rate of growth is expected to slow after 1990. Increases in the numbers of classroom teachers and in expenditures per pupil are also forecasted. State level K-12 public school enrollment and public high school graduates are expected to increase, but these increases will vary across the nation. Five technical appendices contain details about the projection methodology; and present supplementary tables, a table of mean absolute percentage errors, an outline of data sources, and a glossary. The text contains 100 figures and 46 tables, and the appendices contain an additional 34 tables. (SLD)

Statistical projections for elementary and secondary schools and institutions of higher education are provided at the national and state levels through the year 2001. National projection tables cover enrollment, high school graduates, earned degrees conferred, classroom teachers, and expenditures of public elementary and secondary schools. State-level projections cover public elementary and secondary school enrollment, and public high school graduates. Data are generally shown by calendar or school year for various years from 1976 through 2001. The report also contains a methodology section describing models and assumptions used to develop the national-level and state-level projections. Projections are based on an age-specific enrollment rate model, exponential smoothing models, and econometric models. The enrollment model uses population estimates and projections from the Bureau of the Census. The exponential smoothing models are based on the mathematical projection of past data patterns into the future. The econometric models use projections of exogenous variables from the Macroeconomic Model of the U.S. Economy, developed by Data Resources, Inc. Most of the projections have three or four alternative sets of assumptions regarding various growth paths. Although the first set of projections is deemed to represent the most likely projections, the other alternatives provide a reasonable range of outcomes. In all, 110 data tables are provided. (Author/TJH)

Future trends in enrollment projections are useful to school planners who are involved in making decisions about long-term requirements for school facilities and teachers. The 5- to 17-year-old population is expected to increase by 13 percent over the projection period to 2003. During the projection period, total enrollment is expected in 1996 to surpass the level of 1971 (the previous peak), which is 2 years earlier than the previous projection. Enrollment in kindergarten through grade 8 reached its low in 1984 and has risen since, while enrollment in grades 9 through 12 did not reach a low until 1990. Enrollment in high schools is projected to increase by 22 percent. Trends are likely to differ by region and state. The present projections, the first ones based on 1990 Census figures, are higher than those previously presented. Three tables present enrollment projections and a comparison with past projections. (SLD)

This pocket-sized booklet provides the reader with NCES information on projected enrollments at all education levels, numbers of high school graduates, earned degrees conferred, teachers, and expenditures. In addition, there are state-level tables on public elementary and secondary enrollment, as well as the number of public high school graduates.

A consistent set of projections for key education statistics. Included are statistics on enrollment, graduates, instructional staff, and expenditures in elementary and secondary schools and institutions of higher education is provided. The tables, charts, and narratives contain data on enrollment, teachers, graduates, and expenditures for the past 15 years and projections to the year 2000. The book is divided into three parts: (1) Projections and Analyses; (2) Projection Methodology; and (3) Technical Appendixes. Total enrollment in public and private elementary and secondary schools is projected to increase from 45.4 million in 1988 to 49.7 million in 1998. Enrollment in institutions of higher education is projected to increase from 12.8 million in 1988 to 13.4 million by the year 2000. Current expenditures of public schools are expected to increase from $161.5 billion in 1998-89 to $212.0 billion in 1999-2000. Current-fund expeditures of institutions of higher education are projected to increase from $115.5 billion in 1988-89 to $144.4 billion by 1999-2000. (SI)

"Pocket Projections" provides some information on education in the United States in the past and future, focusing on the period from 1985-86 to 2007-08. In table form, data are given for these topics: (1) projected population; (2) elementary and secondary education enrollment; (3) high school graduates; (4) classroom teachers; (5) pupil/teacher ratios; (6) elementary and secondary school expenditures; (7) higher education enrollment; (8) earned degrees; and (9) higher education expenditures. The figures are derived from data from the National Center for Education Statistics and the Bureau of the Census. (SLD)