1. Modeling COVID-19 with Uncertainty in Granada, Spain. Intra-Hospitalary Circuit and Expectations over the Next Months
- Author
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David Martínez-Rodríguez, Rafael J. Villanueva, José M. Garrido, Fernando Rodríguez-Serrano, Sorina-M. Sferle, [Garrido, Jose M.] Univ Granada, Dept Surg & Surg Specialties, Granada 18016, Spain, [Garrido, Jose M.] Biosanit Res Inst Granada ibsGRANADA, Granada 18016, Spain, [Rodriguez-Serrano, Fernando] Biosanit Res Inst Granada ibsGRANADA, Granada 18016, Spain, [Garrido, Jose M.] Univ Granada, Inst Biopathol & Regenerat Med IBIMER, Granada 18016, Spain, [Rodriguez-Serrano, Fernando] Univ Granada, Inst Biopathol & Regenerat Med IBIMER, Granada 18016, Spain, [Martinez-Rodriguez, David] Univ Politecn Valencia, Inst Univ Matemat Multidisciplinar, Valencia 46022, Spain, [Sferle, Sorina-M] Univ Politecn Valencia, Inst Univ Matemat Multidisciplinar, Valencia 46022, Spain, [Villanueva, Rafael-J] Univ Politecn Valencia, Inst Univ Matemat Multidisciplinar, Valencia 46022, Spain, Spanish Ministerio de Economia, Industria y Competitividad (MINECO), Agencia Estatal de Investigacion (AEI), Fondo Europeo de Desarrollo Regional (FEDER UE), European Union through the Operational Program of the [European Regional Development Fund (ERDF)/European Social Fund (ESF)] of the Valencian Community, and Ramon Areces Foundation, Madrid, Spain
- Subjects
0301 basic medicine ,Vaccination expectations ,medicine.medical_specialty ,2019-20 coronavirus outbreak ,Operations research ,Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) ,Hospital’s resources ,Computer science ,Spread ,General Mathematics ,Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) ,Population ,Epidemic ,Facemasks ,03 medical and health sciences ,Mathematical model ,0302 clinical medicine ,Pandemic ,QA1-939 ,Computer Science (miscellaneous) ,medicine ,030212 general & internal medicine ,education ,Engineering (miscellaneous) ,Mathematical models ,education.field_of_study ,hospital’s resources ,Mask use ,Public health ,Hospital's resources ,COVID-19 ,Influenza ,Dynamics ,Transmission dynamics ,030104 developmental biology ,transmission dynamics ,vaccination expectations ,MATEMATICA APLICADA ,COVID waves ,Mathematics ,mathematical model - Abstract
Mathematical models have been remarkable tools for knowing in advance the appropriate time to enforce population restrictions and distribute hospital resources. Here, we present a mathematical Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered (SEIR) model to study the transmission dynamics of COVID-19 in Granada, Spain, taking into account the uncertainty of the phenomenon. In the model, the patients moving throughout the hospital’s departments (intra-hospitalary circuit) are considered in order to help to optimize the use of a hospital’s resources in the future. Two main seasons, September–April (autumn-winter) and May–August (summer), where the hospital pressure is significantly different, have been included. The model is calibrated and validated with data obtained from the hospitals in Granada. Possible future scenarios have been simulated. The model is able to capture the history of the pandemic in Granada. It provides predictions about the intra-hospitalary COVID-19 circuit over time and shows that the number of infected is expected to decline continuously from May without an increase next autumn–winter if population measures continue to be satisfied. The model strongly suggests that the number of infected cases will reduce rapidly with aggressive vaccination policies. The proposed study is being used in Granada to design public health policies and perform wise re-distribution of hospital resources in advance., Spanish Ministerio de Economía, Industria y Competitividad (MINECO), Agencia Estatal de Investigación (AEI), Fondo Europeo de Desarrollo Regional (FEDER UE) grant MTM2017-89664-P, European Union through the Operational Program of the [European Regional Development Fund (ERDF)/European Social Fund (ESF)] of the Valencian Community 2014–2020, Ramón Areces Foundation, Madrid, Spain (CIVP18A3920).
- Published
- 2021
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