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Data sharing: The PHOSP-COVID study protocol, consent form, definition, and derivation of clinical characteristics and outcomes, training materials, regulatory documents, information about requests for data access, and other relevant study materials are available online. UK Biobank information can be released once necessary approvals have been obtained. Other data (eg, the R code and protocol) will be made available on reasonable request to the corresponding author. Copyright © 2023 The Author(s). Background: Sleep disturbance is common following hospital admission both for COVID-19 and other causes. The clinical associations of this for recovery after hospital admission are poorly understood despite sleep disturbance contributing to morbidity in other scenarios. We aimed to investigate the prevalence and nature of sleep disturbance after discharge following hospital admission for COVID-19 and to assess whether this was associated with dyspnoea. Methods: CircCOVID was a prospective multicentre cohort substudy designed to investigate the effects of circadian disruption and sleep disturbance on recovery after COVID-19 in a cohort of participants aged 18 years or older, admitted to hospital for COVID-19 in the UK, and discharged between March, 2020, and October, 2021. Participants were recruited from the Post-hospitalisation COVID-19 study (PHOSP-COVID). Follow-up data were collected at two timepoints: an early time point 2–7 months after hospital discharge and a later time point 10–14 months after hospital discharge. Sleep quality was assessed subjectively using the Pittsburgh Sleep Quality Index questionnaire and a numerical rating scale. Sleep quality was also assessed with an accelerometer worn on the wrist (actigraphy) for 14 days. Participants were also clinically phenotyped, including assessment of symptoms (ie, anxiety [Generalised Anxiety Disorder 7-item scale questionnaire], muscle function [SARC-F questionnaire], dyspnoea [Dyspnoea-12 questionnaire] and measurement of lung function), at the early timepoint after discharge. Actigraphy results were also compared to a matched UK Biobank cohort (non-hospitalised individuals and recently hospitalised individuals). Multivariable linear regression was used to define associations of sleep disturbance with the primary outcome of breathlessness and the other clinical symptoms. PHOSP-COVID is registered on the ISRCTN Registry (ISRCTN10980107). Findings: 2320 of 2468 participants in the PHOSP-COVID study attended an early timepoint research visit a median of 5 months (IQR 4–6) following discharge from 83 hospitals in the UK. Data for sleep quality were assessed by subjective measures (the Pittsburgh Sleep Quality Index questionnaire and the numerical rating scale) for 638 participants at the early time point. Sleep quality was also assessed using device-based measures (actigraphy) a median of 7 months (IQR 5–8 months) after discharge from hospital for 729 participants. After discharge from hospital, the majority (396 [62%] of 638) of participants who had been admitted to hospital for COVID-19 reported poor sleep quality in response to the Pittsburgh Sleep Quality Index questionnaire. A comparable proportion (338 [53%] of 638) of participants felt their sleep quality had deteriorated following discharge after COVID-19 admission, as assessed by the numerical rating scale. Device-based measurements were compared to an age-matched, sex-matched, BMI-matched, and time from discharge-matched UK Biobank cohort who had recently been admitted to hospital. Compared to the recently hospitalised matched UK Biobank cohort, participants in our study slept on average 65 min (95% CI 59 to 71) longer, had a lower sleep regularity index (–19%; 95% CI –20 to –16), and a lower sleep efficiency (3·83 percentage points; 95% CI 3·40 to 4·26). Similar results were obtained when comparisons were made with the non-hospitalised UK Biobank cohort. Overall sleep quality (unadjusted effect estimate 3·94; 95% CI 2·78 to 5·10), deterioration in sleep quality following hospital admission (3·00; 1·82 to 4·28), and sleep regularity (4·38; 2·10 to 6·65) were associated with higher dyspnoea scores. Poor sleep quality, deterioration in sleep quality, and sleep regularity were also associated with impaired lung function, as assessed by forced vital capacity. Depending on the sleep metric, anxiety mediated 18–39% of the effect of sleep disturbance on dyspnoea, while muscle weakness mediated 27–41% of this effect. Interpretation: Sleep disturbance following hospital admission for COVID-19 is associated with dyspnoea, anxiety, and muscle weakness. Due to the association with multiple symptoms, targeting sleep disturbance might be beneficial in treating the post-COVID-19 condition. Funding: UK Research and Innovation, National Institute for Health Research, and Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council. UK Research and Innovation, National Institute for Health Research, and Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council.

Data sharing statement This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license The ISARIC4C protocol, data sharing and publication policy are available at https://isaric4c.net. ISARIC4C's Independent Data and Material Access Committee welcomes applications for access to data and materials (https://isaric4c.net). The PHOSP-COVID protocol, consent form, definition and derivation of clinical characteristics and outcomes, training materials, regulatory documents, information about requests for data access, and other relevant study materials are available online: https://phosp.org/resource/. Access to these materials can be granted by contacting phosp@leicester.ac.uk and Phospcontracts@leicester.ac.uk. All data used in this study is available within ODAP and accessible under reasonable request. Data access criteria and information about how to request access is available online: https://phosp.org/resource/. If criteria are met and a request is made, access can be gained by signing the eDRIS user agreement. Supplementary data are available online at https://www.thelancet.com/journals/ebiom/article/PIIS2352-3964(22)00584-9/fulltext#supplementaryMaterial . Copyright © 2022 The Author(s). Background: Most studies of immunity to SARS-CoV-2 focus on circulating antibody, giving limited insights into mucosal defences that prevent viral replication and onward transmission. We studied nasal and plasma antibody responses one year after hospitalisation for COVID-19, including a period when SARS-CoV-2 vaccination was introduced. Methods: In this follow up study, plasma and nasosorption samples were prospectively collected from 446 adults hospitalised for COVID-19 between February 2020 and March 2021 via the ISARIC4C and PHOSP-COVID consortia. IgA and IgG responses to NP and S of ancestral SARS-CoV-2, Delta and Omicron (BA.1) variants were measured by electrochemiluminescence and compared with plasma neutralisation data. Findings: Strong and consistent nasal anti-NP and anti-S IgA responses were demonstrated, which remained elevated for nine months (p < 0.0001). Nasal and plasma anti-S IgG remained elevated for at least 12 months (p < 0.0001) with plasma neutralising titres that were raised against all variants compared to controls (p < 0.0001). Of 323 with complete data, 307 were vaccinated between 6 and 12 months; coinciding with rises in nasal and plasma IgA and IgG anti-S titres for all SARS-CoV-2 variants, although the change in nasal IgA was minimal (1.46-fold change after 10 months, p = 0.011) and the median remained below the positive threshold determined by pre-pandemic controls. Samples 12 months after admission showed no association between nasal IgA and plasma IgG anti-S responses (R = 0.05, p = 0.18), indicating that nasal IgA responses are distinct from those in plasma and minimally boosted by vaccination. Interpretation: The decline in nasal IgA responses 9 months after infection and minimal impact of subsequent vaccination may explain the lack of long-lasting nasal defence against reinfection and the limited effects of vaccination on transmission. These findings highlight the need to develop vaccines that enhance nasal immunity. Funding: This study has been supported by ISARIC4C and PHOSP-COVID consortia. ISARIC4C is supported by grants from the National Institute for Health and Care Research and the Medical Research Council. Liverpool Experimental Cancer Medicine Centre provided infrastructure support for this research. The PHOSP-COVD study is jointly funded by UK Research and Innovation and National Institute of Health and Care Research. The funders were not involved in the study design, interpretation of data or the writing of this manuscript. This work is supported by the following grants: The PHOSP-COVD study is jointly funded by UK Research and Innovation and National Institute for Health and Care Research (grant references: MR/V027859/1 and COV0319). ISARIC4C is supported by grants from the National Institute for Health and Care Research (award CO-CIN-01) and the Medical Research Council (grant MC_PC_19059) Liverpool Experimental Cancer Medicine Centre provided infrastructure support for this research (grant reference: C18616/A25153). Other grants which have supported this work include: the UK Coronavirus Immunology Consortium [funder reference:1257927], the Imperial Biomedical Research Centre (NIHR Imperial BRC, grant IS-BRC-1215-20013), the Health Protection Research Unit (HPRU) in Respiratory Infections at Imperial College London and NIHR HPRU in Emerging and Zoonotic Infections at University of Liverpool, both in partnership with Public Health England, [NIHR award 200907], Wellcome Trust and Department for International Development [215091/Z/18/Z], Health Data Research UK (HDR UK) [grant code: 2021.0155], Medical Research Council [grant code: MC_UU_12014/12], and NIHR Clinical Research Network for providing infrastructure support for this research. FL is supported by an MRC clinical training fellowship [award MR/W000970/1]. LPH is supported by Oxford NIHR Biomedical Research Centre. AART is supported by a BHF Intermediate Clinical Fellowship (FS/18/13/33281). SLRJ receives support from UKRI, GCRF, Rosetrees Trust, BHIVA, EDCTP, Globvac. JDC has grants from AstraZeneca, Boehringer Ingelheim, GlaxoSmithKline, Gilead Sciences, Grifols, Novartis and Insmed. RAE holds a NIHR Clinician Scientist Fellowship (CS-2016-16-020). AH is currently supported by UK Research and Innovation. NIHR and NIHR Manchester BRC. BR receives support from BHF Oxford Centre of Research Excellence, NIHR Oxford BRC and MRC. SJD is funded by an NIHR Global Research Professorship [NIHR300791]. DW is supported by an NIHR Advanced Fellowship. AH has received support from MRC and the Coronavirus Immunology Consortium (MR/V028448/1). LVW has received support from UKRI, GSK/Asthma + Lung UK and NIHR for this study. MGS has received support from NIHR UK, MRC UK and Health Protection Research Unit in Emerging & Zoonotic Infections, University of Liverpool. JKB is supported by the Wellcome Trust (223164/Z/21/Z) and UKRI (MC_PC_20004, MC_PC_19025, MC_PC_1905, MRNO2995X/1, and MC_PC_20029). PJMO is supported by a NIHR Senior Investigator Award [award 201385]. LT is supported by the Wellcome Trust [clinical career development fellowship grant number 205228/Z/16/Z], the Centre of Excellence in Infectious Diseases Research (CEIDR) and the Alder Hey Charity.

Background Baseline levels of tree mortality can, over time, contribute to high snag densities and high levels of deadwood (down woody debris) if fire is infrequent and decomposition is slow. Deadwood can be important for tree recruitment, and it plays a major role in terrestrial carbon cycling, but deadwood is rarely examined in a spatially explicit context. Methods Between 2011 and 2019, we annually tracked all trees and snags ≥1 cm in diameter and mapped all pieces of deadwood ≥10 cm diameter and ≥1 m in length in 25.6 ha of Tsuga heterophylla / Pseudotsuga menziesii forest. We analyzed the amount, biomass, and spatial distribution of deadwood, and we assessed how various causes of mortality that contributed uniquely to deadwood creation. Results Compared to aboveground woody live biomass of 481 Mg ha−1 (from trees ≥10 cm diameter), snag biomass was 74 Mg ha−1 and deadwood biomass was 109 Mg ha−1 (from boles ≥10 cm diameter). Biomass from large-diameter trees (≥60 cm) accounted for 85%, 88%, and 58%, of trees, snags, and deadwood, respectively. Total aboveground woody live and dead biomass was 668 Mg ha−1. The annual production of downed wood (≥10 cm diameter) from tree boles averaged 4 Mg ha−1 yr−1. Woody debris was spatially heterogeneous, varying more than two orders of magnitude from 4 to 587 Mg ha−1 at the scale of 20 m × 20 m quadrats. Almost all causes of deadwood creation varied in importance between large-diameter trees and small-diameter trees. Biomass of standing stems and deadwood had weak inverse distributions, reflecting the long period of time required for trees to reach large diameters following antecedent tree mortalities and the centennial scale time required for deadwood decomposition. Conclusion Old-growth forests contain large stores of biomass in living trees, as well as in snag and deadwood biomass pools that are stable long after tree death. Ignoring biomass (or carbon) in deadwood pools can lead to substantial underestimations of sequestration and stability.

Phytochrome photoreceptors are known to regulate plastic growth responses to vegetation shade. However, recent reports also suggest an important role for phytochromes in carbon resource management, metabolism, and growth. Here, we use 13CO2 labelling patterns in multiallele phy mutants to investigate the role of phytochrome in the control of metabolic fluxes. We also combine quantitative data of 13C incorporation into protein and cell wall polymers, gas exchange measurements, and system modelling to investigate why biomass is decreased in adult multiallele phy mutants. Phytochrome influences the synthesis of stress metabolites such as raffinose and proline, and the accumulation of sugars, possibly through regulating vacuolar sugar transport. Remarkably, despite their modified metabolism and vastly altered architecture, growth rates in adult phy mutants resemble those of wild-type plants. Our results point to delayed seedling growth and smaller cotyledon size as the cause of the adult-stage phy mutant biomass defect. Our data signify a role for phytochrome in metabolic stress physiology and carbon partitioning, and illustrate that phytochrome action at the seedling stage sets the trajectory for adult biomass production.

Active forest management is applied in many parts of the western United States to reduce wildfire severity, mitigate vulnerability to drought and bark beetle mortality, and more recently, to increase snow retention and late-season streamflow. A rapidly warming climate accelerates the need for these restorative treatments, but the treatment priority among forest patches varies considerably. We simulated four treatment scenarios across the 3,450 km2 Wenatchee River basin in eastern Washington, United States. We used a decision support tool (DST) to assess trade-offs and synergies within and among treatments on wildfire risk and smoke emissions, water yield and snow retention, biomass production, and economic return. Treatment scenarios emphasized prescribed burning (BurnOnly), biomass production (MaxBiomass), gap-based thinning to optimize water yield (IdealWater), and a principle-based restoration scenario (RA1). Fire hazard, smoke emissions, and biomass production metrics were evaluated across scenarios using the Forest Vegetation Simulator, and water yields were modeled using the Distributed Hydrology Soil Vegetation Model. Simulations were summarized to both patch- (101–102 ha) and subwatershed- (103–104 ha) scales, and treatment effects were evaluated against an untreated baseline landscape. We used logic models to rank effect sizes by scenario across metrics along a continuum between −1 (no or weak effect) to +1 (large effect). All treatments produced benefits across one or more ecosystem services and led to synergistic benefits to water yield and wildfire hazard reduction. Tradeoffs among resource benefits were clear in wilderness where reliance on prescribed burning without mechanical treatment increased costs and eliminated the potential for biomass recovery. The BurnOnly scenario improved fire risk metrics and streamflow, but effect sizes were lower compared to other treatments. IdealWater showed the strongest benefits overall, demonstrating the ability to capture multiple resource benefits through spatially explicit thinning. Our study provides a framework for integrating strategic and tactical models that evaluate tradeoffs and synergies gained through varied management approaches. We demonstrate the utility of decision support modeling to enhance management synergies across large landscapes.

Data sharing statement: PHOSP-COVID: The protocol, consent form, definition and derivation of clinical characteristics and outcomes, training materials, regulatory documents, requests for data access and other relevant study materials are available online at https://www.phosp.org. COVIDENCE UK: De-identified participant data will be made available upon reasonable request to the corresponding author. Supplementary data is available online at: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2666776223000546?via%3Dihub#appsec1 . Copyright © 2023 The Author(s). Background: The risk factors for recovery from COVID-19 dyspnoea are poorly understood. We investigated determinants of recovery from dyspnoea in adults with COVID-19 and compared these to determinants of recovery from non-COVID-19 dyspnoea. Methods: We used data from two prospective cohort studies: PHOSP-COVID (patients hospitalised between March 2020 and April 2021 with COVID-19) and COVIDENCE UK (community cohort studied over the same time period). PHOSP-COVID data were collected during hospitalisation and at 5-month and 1-year follow-up visits. COVIDENCE UK data were obtained through baseline and monthly online questionnaires. Dyspnoea was measured in both cohorts with the Medical Research Council Dyspnoea Scale. We used multivariable logistic regression to identify determinants associated with a reduction in dyspnoea between 5-month and 1-year follow-up. Findings: We included 990 PHOSP-COVID and 3309 COVIDENCE UK participants. We observed higher odds of improvement between 5-month and 1-year follow-up among PHOSP-COVID participants who were younger (odds ratio 1.02 per year, 95% CI 1.01–1.03), male (1.54, 1.16–2.04), neither obese nor severely obese (1.82, 1.06–3.13 and 4.19, 2.14–8.19, respectively), had no pre-existing anxiety or depression (1.56, 1.09–2.22) or cardiovascular disease (1.33, 1.00–1.79), and shorter hospital admission (1.01 per day, 1.00–1.02). Similar associations were found in those recovering from non-COVID-19 dyspnoea, excluding age (and length of hospital admission). Interpretation: Factors associated with dyspnoea recovery at 1-year post-discharge among patients hospitalised with COVID-19 were similar to those among community controls without COVID-19. Funding: PHOSP-COVID is supported by a grant from the MRC-UK Research and Innovation and the Department of Health and Social Care through the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) rapid response panel to tackle COVID-19. The views expressed in the publication are those of the author(s) and not necessarily those of the National Health Service (NHS), the NIHR or the Department of Health and Social Care. COVIDENCE UK is supported by the UK Research and Innovation, the National Institute for Health Research, and Barts Charity. The views expressed are those of the authors and not necessarily those of the funders. PHOSP-COVID: This study would not be possible without all the participants who have given their time and support. We thank all the participants and their families. We thank the many research administrators, health-care and social-care professionals who contributed to setting up and delivering the study at all of the 65 NHS trusts/Health boards and 25 research institutions across the UK, as well as all the supporting staff at the NIHR Clinical Research Network, Health Research Authority, Research Ethics Committee, Department of Health and Social Care, Public Health Scotland, and Public Health England, and support from the ISARIC Coronavirus Clinical Characterisation Consortium. We thank Kate Holmes at the NIHR Office for Clinical Research Infrastructure (NOCRI) for her support in coordinating the charities group. The PHOSP-COVID industry framework was formed to provide advice and support in commercial discussions, and we thank the Association of the British Pharmaceutical Industry as well NOCRI for coordinating this. We are very grateful to all the charities that have provided insight to the study: Action Pulmonary Fibrosis, Alzheimer's Research UK, Asthma + Lung UK, British Heart Foundation, Diabetes UK, Cystic Fibrosis Trust, Kidney Research UK, MQ Mental Health, Muscular Dystrophy UK, Stroke Association Blood Cancer UK, McPin Foundations, and Versus Arthritis. We thank the NIHR Leicester Biomedical Research Centre patient and public involvement group and Long Covid Support. COVIDENCE UK: We thank all participants of COVIDENCE UK, and the following organisations who supported study recruitment: Asthma UK/British Lung Foundation, the British Heart Foundation, the British Obesity Society, Cancer Research UK, Diabetes UK, Future Publishing, Kidney Care UK, Kidney Wales, Mumsnet, the National Kidney Federation, the National Rheumatoid Arthritis Society, the North West London Health Research Register (DISCOVER), Primary Immunodeficiency UK, the Race Equality Foundation, SWM Health, the Terence Higgins Trust, and Vasculitis UK.

Background The impact of COVID-19 on physical and mental health and employment after hospitalisation with acute disease is not well understood. The aim of this study was to determine the effects of COVID-19-related hospitalisation on health and employment, to identify factors associated with recovery, and to describe recovery phenotypes. Methods The Post-hospitalisation COVID-19 study (PHOSP-COVID) is a multicentre, long-term follow-up study of adults (aged ≥18 years) discharged from hospital in the UK with a clinical diagnosis of COVID-19, involving an assessment between 2 and 7 months after discharge, including detailed recording of symptoms, and physiological and biochemical testing. Multivariable logistic regression was done for the primary outcome of patient-perceived recovery, with age, sex, ethnicity, body-mass index, comorbidities, and severity of acute illness as covariates. A post-hoc cluster analysis of outcomes for breathlessness, fatigue, mental health, cognitive impairment, and physical performance was done using the clustering large applications k-medoids approach. The study is registered on the ISRCTN Registry (ISRCTN10980107). Findings We report findings for 1077 patients discharged from hospital between March 5 and Nov 30, 2020, who underwent assessment at a median of 5·9 months (IQR 4·9–6·5) after discharge. Participants had a mean age of 58 years (SD 13); 384 (36%) were female, 710 (69%) were of white ethnicity, 288 (27%) had received mechanical ventilation, and 540 (50%) had at least two comorbidities. At follow-up, only 239 (29%) of 830 participants felt fully recovered, 158 (20%) of 806 had a new disability (assessed by the Washington Group Short Set on Functioning), and 124 (19%) of 641 experienced a health-related change in occupation. Factors associated with not recovering were female sex, middle age (40–59 years), two or more comorbidities, and more severe acute illness. The magnitude of the persistent health burden was substantial but only weakly associated with the severity of acute illness. Four clusters were identified with different severities of mental and physical health impairment (n=767): very severe (131 patients, 17%), severe (159, 21%), moderate along with cognitive impairment (127, 17%), and mild (350, 46%). Of the outcomes used in the cluster analysis, all were closely related except for cognitive impairment. Three (3%) of 113 patients in the very severe cluster, nine (7%) of 129 in the severe cluster, 36 (36%) of 99 in the moderate cluster, and 114 (43%) of 267 in the mild cluster reported feeling fully recovered. Persistently elevated serum C-reactive protein was positively associated with cluster severity. Interpretation We identified factors related to not recovering after hospital admission with COVID-19 at 6 months after discharge (eg, female sex, middle age, two or more comorbidities, and more acute severe illness), and four different recovery phenotypes. The severity of physical and mental health impairments were closely related, whereas cognitive health impairments were independent. In clinical care, a proactive approach is needed across the acute severity spectrum, with interdisciplinary working, wide access to COVID-19 holistic clinical services, and the potential to stratify care. Funding UK Research and Innovation and National Institute for Health Research.

Recommended for grades 4–8This Instructional Resource focuses on the photographic work of Mississippi artist Eudora Welty (1909-2001). Winner of the Pulitzer Prize for The Optimist's Daughter, Welt...

Allogeneic haematopoietic stem cell transplantation (alloHSCT) offers a potentially curative therapy for patients suffering from diseases of the haematopoietic system but requires a high level of expertise and is both resource intensive and expensive. A frequent and life-threatening complication is graft-versus-host disease (GvHD). Acute GvHD (aGvHD) generally causes skin, gastrointestinal and liver symptoms, but chronic GvHD (cGvHD) has a different pathophysiology and may affect nearly every organ or tissue of the body. In Europe, GvHD prophylaxis is generally a calcineurin inhibitor in combination with methotrexate, with high-dose systemic steroids used for advanced GvHD treatment. Between 39% and 59% of alloHSCT patients will develop aGvHD and around 36-37% will develop cGvHD. Steroid response decreases with increasing disease severity, which in turn leads to an increase in non-relapse mortality. GvHD imposes a financial burden on healthcare systems, significantly increasing post-alloHSCT costs. Increased GvHD disease severity magnifies this. Balancing immunosuppression to control the GvHD whilst maintaining a degree of immunocompetence against infection is critical. European GvHD guidelines acknowledge the lack of evidence to support a standard second-line therapy, and improved long-term outcomes and quality-of-life (QoL) remain an unmet need. Evidence generation for potential treatments is challenging. Issues to overcome include choice of comparator (extensive off-label usage); blinding; selection of relevant patient-reported outcome measures (PROMs); and rarity of the condition, which may infeasibly increase timescales to achieve clinical and statistical relevance.

In an emerging era of megadisturbance, bolstering forest resilience to wildfire, insects, and drought has become a central objective in many western forests. Climate has received considerable attention as a driver of these disturbances, but few studies have examined the complexities of climate-vegetation-disturbance interactions. Current strategies for creating resilient forests often rely on retrospective approaches, seeking to impart resilience by restoring historical conditions to contemporary landscapes, but historical conditions are becoming increasingly unattainable amidst modern bioclimatic conditions. What becomes an appropriate benchmark for resilience when we have novel forests, rapidly changing climate, and unprecedented disturbance regimes? We combined two longitudinal datasets-each representing some of the most comprehensive spatially explicit, annual tree mortality data in existence-in a post-hoc factorial design to examine the nonlinear relationships between fire, climate, forest spatial structure, and bark beetles. We found that while prefire drought elevated mortality risk, advantageous local neighborhoods could offset these effects. Surprisingly, mortality risk (P

Background The epidemic Dendroctonus rufipennis (spruce beetle) outbreak in the subalpine forests of the Colorado Plateau in the 1990s killed most larger Picea engelmannii (Engelmann spruce) trees. One quarter century later, the larger snags are beginning to fall, transitioning to deadwood (down woody debris) where they may influence fire behavior, regeneration, and habitat structure. Methods We tracked all fallen trees ≥ 1 cm in diameter at breast height (1.37-m high) and mapped all pieces of deadwood ≥ 10-cm diameter and ≥ 1 m in length within 13.64 ha of a high-elevation mixed-species forest in the Picea–Abies zone annually for 5 years from 2015 through 2019. We examined the relative contribution of Picea engelmannii to snag and deadwood pools relative to other species and the relative contributions of large-diameter trees (≥ 33.2 cm at this subalpine site). We compared spatially explicit mapping of deadwood to traditional measures of surface fuels and introduce a new method for approximating vertical distribution of deadwood. Results In this mixed-species forest, there was relatively high density and basal area of live Picea engelmannii 20 years after the beetle outbreak (36 trees ha−1 and 1.94 m2 ha−1 ≥ 10-cm diameter) contrasting with the near total mortality of mature Picea in forests nearby. Wood from tree boles ≥ 10-cm diameter on the ground had biomass of 42 Mg ha−1, 7 Mg ha−1 of Picea engelmannii, and 35 Mg ha−1 of other species. Total live aboveground biomass was 119 Mg ha−1, while snag biomass was 36 Mg ha−1. Mean total fuel loading measured with planar transects was 63 Mg ha−1 but varied more than three orders of magnitude (0.1 to 257 Mg ha−1). Planar transects recorded 32 Mg ha−1 of wood ≥ 7.62-cm diameter compared to the 42 Mg ha−1 of wood ≥ 10-cm diameter recorded by explicit mapping. Multiple pieces of deadwood were often stacked, forming a vertical structure likely to contribute to active fire behavior. Conclusion Bark beetle mortality in the 1990s has made Picea an important local constituent of deadwood at 20-m scales, but other species dominate total deadwood due to slow decomposition rates and the multi-centennial intervals between fires. Explicit measurements of deadwood and surface fuels improve ecological insights into biomass heterogeneity and potential fire behavior.

The subset of patients who develop critical illness in Covid-19 have extensive inflammation affecting the lungs1 and are strikingly different from other patients: immunosuppressive therapy benefits critically-ill patients, but may harm some non-critical cases.2 Since susceptibility to life-threatening infections and immune-mediated diseases are both strongly heritable traits, we reasoned that host genetic variation may identify mechanistic targets for therapeutic development in Covid-19.3GenOMICC (Genetics Of Mortality In Critical Care, genomicc.org) is a global collaborative study to understand the genetic basis of critical illness. Here we report the results of a genome-wide association study (GWAS) in 2244 critically-ill Covid-19 patients from 208 UK intensive care units (ICUs), representing >95% of all ICU beds. Ancestry-matched controls were drawn from the UK Biobank population study and results were confirmed in GWAS comparisons with two other population control groups: the 100,000 genomes project and Generation Scotland.We identify and replicate three novel genome-wide significant associations, at chr19p13.3 (rs2109069, p = 3.98 × 10−12), within the gene encoding dipeptidyl peptidase 9 (DPP9), at chr12q24.13 (rs10735079, p =1.65 × 10−8) in a gene cluster encoding antiviral restriction enzyme activators (OAS1, OAS2, OAS3), and at chr21q22.1 (rs2236757, p = 4.99 × 10−8) in the interferon receptor gene IFNAR2. Consistent with our focus on extreme disease in younger patients with less comorbidity, we detect a stronger signal at the known 3p21.31 locus than previous studies (rs73064425, p = 4.77 × 10−30).We identify potential targets for repurposing of licensed medications. Using Mendelian randomisation we found evidence in support of a causal link from low expression of IFNAR2, and high expression of TYK2, to life-threatening disease. Transcriptome-wide association in lung tissue revealed that high expression of the monocyte/macrophage chemotactic receptor CCR2 is associated with severe Covid-19.Our results identify robust genetic signals relating to key host antiviral defence mechanisms, and mediators of inflammatory organ damage in Covid-19. Both mechanisms may be amenable to targeted treatment with existing drugs. Large-scale randomised clinical trials will be essential before any change to clinical practice.

Background tree mortality is a complex process that requires large sample sizes and long timescales to disentangle the suite of ecological factors that collectively contribute to tree stress, decline, and eventual mortality. Tree mortality associated with acute disturbance events, in contrast, is conspicuous and frequently studied, but there remains a lack of research regarding the role of background mortality processes in mediating the severity and delayed effects of disturbance. We conducted an empirical study by measuring the rates, causes, and spatial pattern of mortality annually among 32,989 individual trees within a large forest demography plot in the Sierra Nevada. We characterized the relationships between background mortality, compound disturbances (fire and drought), and forest spatial structure, and we integrated our findings with a synthesis of the existing literature from around the world to develop a conceptual framework describing the spatio‐temporal signatures of background and disturbance‐related tree mortality. The interactive effects of fire, drought, and background mortality processes altered the rate, spatial structuring, and ecological consequences of mortality. Before fire, spatially non‐random mortality was only evident among small (1

The reintroduction of fire to landscapes where it was once common is considered a priority to restore historical forest dynamics, including reducing tree density and decreasing levels of woody biomass on the forest floor. However, reintroducing fire causes tree mortality that can have unintended ecological outcomes related to woody biomass, with potential impacts to fuel accumulation, carbon sequestration, subsequent fire severity, and forest management. In this study, we examine the interplay between fire and carbon dynamics by asking how reintroduced fire impacts fuel accumulation, carbon sequestration, and subsequent fire severity potential. Beginning pre-fire, and continuing 6 years post-fire, we tracked all live, dead, and fallen trees ≥ 1 cm in diameter and mapped all pieces of deadwood (downed woody debris) originating from tree boles ≥ 10 cm diameter and ≥ 1 m in length in 25.6 ha of an Abies concolor/Pinus lambertiana forest in the central Sierra Nevada, California, USA. We also tracked surface fuels along 2240 m of planar transects pre-fire, immediately post-fire, and 6 years post-fire. Six years after moderate-severity fire, deadwood ≥ 10 cm diameter was 73 Mg ha−1, comprised of 32 Mg ha−1 that persisted through fire and 41 Mg ha−1 of newly fallen wood (compared to 72 Mg ha−1 pre-fire). Woody surface fuel loading was spatially heterogeneous, with mass varying almost four orders of magnitude at the scale of 20 m × 20 m quadrats (minimum, 0.1 Mg ha−1; mean, 73 Mg ha−1; maximum, 497 Mg ha−1). Wood from large-diameter trees (≥ 60 cm diameter) comprised 57% of surface fuel in 2019, but was 75% of snag biomass, indicating high contributions to current and future fuel loading. Reintroduction of fire does not consume all large-diameter fuel and generates high levels of surface fuels ≥ 10 cm diameter within 6 years. Repeated fires are needed to reduce surface fuel loading.

Maintaining tree diversity Negative interaction among plant species is known as conspecific negative density dependence (CNDD). This ecological pattern is thought to maintain higher species diversity in the tropics. LaManna et al. tested this hypothesis by comparing how tree species diversity changes with the intensity of local biotic interactions in tropical and temperate latitudes (see the Perspective by Comita). Stronger local specialized biotic interactions seem to prevent erosion of biodiversity in tropical forests, not only by limiting populations of common species, but also by strongly stabilizing populations of rare species, which tend to show higher CNDD in the tropics. Science , this issue p. 1389 ; see also p. 1328

Satellite-derived fire severity metrics are a foundational tool used to estimate fire effects at the landscape scale. Changes in surface characteristics permit reasonably accurate delineation between burned and unburned areas, but variability in severity within burned areas is much more challenging to detect. Previous studies have relied primarily on categorical data to calibrate severity indices in terms of classification accuracy, but this approach does not readily translate into an expected amount of error in terms of actual tree mortality. We addressed this issue by examining a dataset of 40,370 geolocated trees that burned in the 2013 California Rim Fire using 36 Landsat-derived burn severity indices. The differenced Normalized Burn Ratio (dNBR) performed reliably well, but the differenced SWIR:NIR ratio most accurately predicted percent basal area mortality and the differenced normalized vegetation index (dNDVI) most accurately predicted percent mortality of stems ≥10 cm diameter at breast height. Relativized versions of dNBR did not consistently improve accuracy; the relativized burn ratio (RBR) was generally equivalent to dNBR while RdNBR had consistently lower accuracy. There was a high degree of variability in observed tree mortality, especially at intermediate spectral index values. This translated into a considerable amount of uncertainty at the landscape scale, with an expected range in estimated percent basal area mortality greater than 37% for half of the area burned (>50,000 ha). In other words, a 37% range in predicted mortality rate was insufficient to capture the observed mortality rate for half of the area burned. Uncertainty was even greater for percent stem mortality, with half of the area burned exceeding a 46% range in predicted mortality rate. The high degree of uncertainty in tree mortality that we observed challenges the confidence with which Landsat-derived spectral indices have been used to measure fire effects, and this has broad implications for research and management related to post-fire landscape complexity, distribution of seed sources, or persistence of fire refugia. We suggest ways to account for uncertainty that will facilitate a more nuanced and ecologically-accurate interpretation of fire effects. This study makes three key contributions to the field of remote sensing of fire effects: 1) we conducted the most comprehensive comparison to date of all previously published severity indices using the largest contiguous set of georeferenced tree mortality field data and revealed that the accuracy of both absolute and relative spectral indices depends on the tree mortality metric of interest;2) we conducted this study in a single, large fire that enabled us to isolate variability due to intrinsic, within-landscape factors without the additional variance due to extrinsic factors associated with different biogeographies or climatic conditions; and 3) we identified the range in tree mortality that may be indistinguishable based on spectral indices derived from Landsat satellites, and we demonstrated how this variability translates into a considerable amount of uncertainty in fire effects at the landscape scale.

Background: Surface fuel loadings are some of the most important factors contributing to fire intensity and fire spread. In old-growth forests where fire has been long excluded, surface fuel loadings can be high and can include woody debris ≥100 cm in diameter. We assessed surface fuel loadings in a long-unburned old-growth mixed-conifer forest in Yosemite National Park, California, USA, and assessed fuel consumption from a management-ignited fire set to control the progression of the 2013 Rim Fire. Specifically, we characterized the distribution and heterogeneity of pre-fire fuel loadings, both along transects and contained in duff mounds around large trees. We compared surface fuel consumption to that predicted by the standard First Order Fire Effects Model (FOFEM) based on pre-fire fuel loadings and fuel moistures. We also assessed the relationship between tree basal area—calculated for two different spatial neighborhood scales—and pre-fire fuel loadings. Results: Pre-fire total surface fuel loading averaged 192 Mg ha−1 and was reduced by 79% by the fire to 41 Mg ha−1 immediately after fire. Most fuel components were reduced by 87% to 90% by the fire, with the exception of coarse woody debris (CWD), which was reduced by 60%. Litter depth in duff mounds were within 1 SD of plot means, but duff biomass for the largest trees (>150 cm diameter at breast height [DBH]) exceeded plot background levels. Overstory basal area generally had significant positive relationships with pre-fire fuel loadings of litter, duff, 1-hour, and 10-hour fuels, but the strength of the relationships differed between overstory components (live, dead, all [live and dead], species), and negative relationships were observed between live Pinus lambertiana Douglas basal area and CWD. FOFEM over-predicted rotten CWD consumption and under-predicted duff consumption. Conclusions: Surface fuel loadings were characterized by heterogeneity and the presence of large pieces. This heterogeneity likely contributed to differential fire behavior at small scales and heterogeneity in the post-fire environment. The reductions in fuel loadings at our research site were in line with ecological restoration objectives; thus, ecologically restorative burning during fire suppression is possible.

Plants are plastic organisms that optimize growth in response to a changing environment. This adaptive capability is regulated by external cues, including light, which provides vital information about the habitat. Phytochrome photoreceptors detect far-red light, indicative of nearby vegetation, and elicit the adaptive shade-avoidance syndrome (SAS), which is critical for plant survival. Plants exhibiting SAS are typically more elongated, with distinctive, small, narrow leaf blades. By applying SAS-inducing end-of-day far-red (EoD FR) treatments at different times during Arabidopsis (Arabidopsis thaliana) leaf 3 development, we have shown that SAS restricts leaf blade size through two distinct cellular strategies. Early SAS induction limits cell division, while later exposure limits cell expansion. This flexible strategy enables phytochromes to maintain control of leaf size through the proliferative and expansion phases of leaf growth. mRNAseq time course data, accessible through a community resource, coupled to a bioinformatics pipeline, identified pathways that underlie these dramatic changes in leaf growth. Phytochrome regulates a suite of major development pathways that control cell division, expansion, and cell fate. Further, phytochromes control cell proliferation through synchronous regulation of the cell cycle, DNA replication, DNA repair, and cytokinesis, and play an important role in sustaining ribosome biogenesis and translation throughout leaf development.

Tropical dry forest is an important ecosystem that offers different good and services to communities. However, despite their importance, these ecosystems are the least studied and have been impacted by human activity in the last decades. Moreover, future projections show an additional impact caused by climate change. For this reason, the understanding of anthropogenic and climate change impacts will help to improve adaptation strategies for a better species conservation. Consequently, we analyzed the impact of climate change and stressors on species distribution from dry forest ecosystem in southern Ecuador. We identified the variables that could help to buffer the potential impacts. Indicator species of climate change impacts were chosen using a species selection index considering an importance index value, density, rarity and altitudinal range. The selected species were Cavanillesia platanifolia, Cordia macrantha (C. macrantha), Erythrina velutina, Handroanthus chrysanthus (H. chrysanthus) and Terminalia valverdeae (T. valverdeae). Species current and future distribution models were generated with information from Herbarium ‘Reinaldo Espinosa’ of the National University of Loja and permanent plots that were established between 2005 and 2009. We used climate data from WorldClim under two climate change scenarios based on two IPCC Representative Concentration Pathways; RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5. To know if the species distribution will be placed in regions with high sensitivity or adaptive capacity, 13 stressor variables and 3 buffers were selected. The sensitivity and adaptive capacity maps were intersected with species future distribution models under RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5. Four of five species in the analysis showed a reduction in their future distribution: C. macrantha, T. valverdeae and H. chrysanthus. These were reduced due to increasing niche restriction. Between 18 and 26% of species future distribution area were located in zones with high sensitivity. In addition, among 14% to 46% of species future distribution area could be in sites with high adaptive capacity. In these areas, conservation strategies can serve as buffers against climate change; however, nowadays there is a conservation gap that needs to be addressed through the implementation of different strategies oriented to reinforce the adaptive capacity of these species in dry forest ecosystems. Species distribution models showed no migration to higher altitudes, but we observed a reduction in areas with high probability of presence. Additionally, sites with high likelihood of species presence have been influenced by deforestation, fragmentation, land use and other stressors, that will likely diminish their ability to adapt to climate warming and increased rainfall variability.

Morel mushrooms are globally distributed, socially and economically important reproductive structures produced by fungi of the genus Morchella . Morels are highly prized edible mushrooms and significant harvests are collected throughout their range, especially in the first year after fire, when some morel species fruit prolifically. Few studies have quantified post-fire morel mushroom abundance, despite their widespread human use. The purpose of this study is to provide the first ever estimate of post-fire morel mushroom abundance in Sierra Nevada mixed-conifer forest. Specifically, we estimate the abundance and spatial variability of morel mushrooms across an intensively mapped and measured forest research site during the first growing season following fire. We conducted this study in the Yosemite Forest Dynamics Plot, a long-term forest research installation located in old-growth mixed-conifer forest of Yosemite National Park, California, USA. We surveyed for morel mushrooms in n = 1119 contiguous circular 3.14 m 2 plots arranged along 2240 m of permanently marked, georeferenced transects. We characterized the spatial correlation of morel plots using k category (multicolor) join count statistics. We analyzed spatial correlations at interplot distances up to 9.0 m. There were 595 morel mushrooms in the 1119 plots we measured. Mushrooms occurred in 17.8% of plots. We estimated a mean standing crop of 1693 morels ha −1 (SE = 155.4 morels ha −1 ). Morel-occupied plots were strongly and significantly spatially autocorrelated. Most of the spatial correlation among morel-occupied plots was apparent at scales up to 7.0 m, and was strongest at scales This study is one of only four that provide unbiased estimates of post-fire morel abundance. Our morel abundance estimates are generally consistent with prior work in high-latitude North American conifer forests. The strong spatial autocorrelation of morel-occupied microsites at scales Morchella colonies; pre-fire vegetation community and fuelbed; fire behavior, intensity, and effects; and soil moisture and temperature. Relatively liberal harvest limits for recreational and subsistence harvesters appear appropriate and sustainable, at least for coniferous forests in the first year following fire. However, intensive commercial harvest, in jurisdictions where it is allowed, may warrant monitoring to assess potential impacts to long-term morel productivity, conflict with recreational harvesters, and non-target effects.

Activation of systemic acquired resistance in plants is associated with transcriptome reprogramming induced by the unstable coactivator NPR1. Immune-induced ubiquitination and proteasomal degradation of NPR1 are thought to facilitate continuous delivery of active NPR1 to target promoters, thereby maximising gene expression. Because of this potentially costly sacrificial process, we investigated if ubiquitination of NPR1 plays transcriptional roles prior to its proteasomal turnover. Here we show ubiquitination of NPR1 is a progressive event in which initial modification by a Cullin-RING E3 ligase promotes its chromatin association and expression of target genes. Only when polyubiquitination of NPR1 is enhanced by the E4 ligase, UBE4, it is targeted for proteasomal degradation. Conversely, ubiquitin ligase activities are opposed by UBP6/7, two proteasome-associated deubiquitinases that enhance NPR1 longevity. Thus, immune-induced transcriptome reprogramming requires sequential actions of E3 and E4 ligases balanced by opposing deubiquitinases that fine-tune activity of NPR1 without strict requirement for its sacrificial turnover., eLife digest Plant diseases cause devastating crop losses around the world and threaten the food supply of millions of people. Over time, plants have developed various mechanisms for fighting off infections caused by pests and other pathogens such as viruses and bacteria. When plants become infected they kick their immune system into action by rapidly switching on and off certain genes. They do this by activating the protein NPR1 which regulates the plant’s immune genes. NPR1 is essential for fighting off infections and plants that do not have this protein are highly susceptible to disease. Peculiarly, once the plant has detected an infection it builds resistance by destroying the NPR1 protein. A previous study suggested that plants do this to replace old ‘inactive’ NPR1 with newer versions that can activate the genes needed to stop the disease developing. This process, however, requires a lot of energy that could be re-directed to other aspects of the immune response. Now, Skelly et al. – including one of the researchers involved in the previous study – have explored whether there may be other reasons for why plants destroy the NPR1 protein. Plant cells target NPR1 for destruction by repeatedly tagging it with molecules called ubiquitin to form ubiquitin chains. The length of these chains determines whether a protein is stable and ready for action, or whether it is ready to be destroyed. In experiments with a commonly studied plant known as Arabidopsis thaliana, Skelly et al. found that the length of ubiquitin chains attached to the NPR1 protein could fine-tune its level of activity: short ubiquitin chains activate NPR1, while longer chains lead to its destruction and shut down the protein. This suggests that the steps leading to the destruction of NPR1 regulate the immune genes needed to fight off disease. This work has uncovered important new components of how plants defend themselves from infection. If these findings translate to crop plants they could inform future agricultural strategies for enhancing the plant’s own defences to increase crop yields, which would provide more food for a rapidly growing population.

Mangrove forests have been globally recognised as their vital functions in preventing coastal erosion, mitigating effects of wave actions and protecting coastal habitats and adjacent shoreline land-uses from extreme coastal events. However, these functions are under severe threats due to the rapid growth of population, intensive shrimp farming and the increased intensity of severe storms in Hau Loc and Nga Son districts, Thanh Hoa province. This research was conducted to monitor spatial-temporal changes in mangrove extents using Landsat and Sentinel imageries from 2005 to 2018. Unsupervised and supervised classification methods and vegetation indices were tested to select the most suitable classification method for study sites, then to quantify mangrove extents and their changes in selected years. The findings show that supervised classification was the most suitable in study sites compared to vegetation indices and unsupervised classification. Mangrove forest extents increased by 7.5 %, 38.6 %, and 47.8 % during periods of 2005 - 2010, 2010 - 2015 and 2015 - 2018, respectively. An increase of mangrove extents resulted from national programs of mangrove rehabilitation and restoration during 2005- 2018, increased by 278.0 ha (123.0 %).

Hülsmann and Hartig suggest that ecological mechanisms other than specialized natural enemies or intraspecific competition contribute to our estimates of conspecific negative density dependence (CNDD). To address their concern, we show that our results are not the result of a methodological artifact and present a null-model analysis that demonstrates that our original findings—(i) stronger CNDD at tropical relative to temperate latitudes and (ii) a latitudinal shift in the relationship between CNDD and species abundance—persist even after controlling for other processes that might influence spatial relationships between adults and recruits.

In this article I explore the aesthetic value of sub-Saharan African ritual masks in the context of modern African art as part of the global fine art world (Desai, 2005; Kasfir, 1992). This discussion of sub-Saharan African ritual masks examines the role of carver and the dichotomy of past “traditional” art and contemporary “modern” art of sub-Saharan Africa (Hassan, 1999). The challenges of responding to ritual objects of aesthetic merit that are outside of the Western cultural framework are discussed. The dynamic roles of museums that exhibit African art are explored as well. Elizabeth Garber (1995) cautions art educators who are outside of the culture discussed need to be aware of the temptations to “exoticize” these original artifacts when designing curriculum. All these issues of postmodern multicultural art education (Ballengee Morris & Stuhr, 2001; Chin, 2011) are important considerations when designing an art lesson using African ritual masks as a source of inspiration for students’ artwork.

Theory predicts that intraspecific competition should be stronger than interspecific competition for any pair of stably coexisting species, yet previous literature reviews found little support for this pattern. We screened over 5400 publications and identified 39 studies that quantified phenomenological intraspecific and interspecific interactions in terrestrial plant communities. Of the 67% of species pairs in which both intra‐ and interspecific effects were negative (competitive), intraspecific competition was, on average, four to five‐fold stronger than interspecific competition. Of the remaining pairs, 93% featured intraspecific competition and interspecific facilitation, a situation that stabilises coexistence. The difference between intra‐ and interspecific effects tended to be larger in observational than experimental data sets, in field than greenhouse studies, and in studies that quantified population growth over the full life cycle rather than single fitness components. Our results imply that processes promoting stable coexistence at local scales are common and consequential across terrestrial plant communities.

The 1994 Northwest Forest Plan (NWFP) was developed to resolve debates over old-growth forests, endangered species, and timber production on federal forests in the range of the northern spotted owl. This three-volume science synthesis, which consists of 12 chapters that address various ecological and social concerns, is intended to inform forest plan revision and forest management within the NWFP area. Land managers with the U.S. Forest Service provided questions that helped guide preparation of the synthesis, which builds on the 10-, 15-, and 20-year NWFP monitoring reports and synthesizes the vast body of relevant scientific literature that has accumulated in the 24 years since the NWFP was initiated. It identifies scientific findings, lessons learned, and uncertainties and also evaluates competing science and provides considerations for management. This synthesis finds that the NWFP has protected dense old-growth forests and maintained habitat for northern spotted owls, marbled murrelets, aquatic organisms, and other species despite losses from wildfire and low levels of timber harvest on federal lands. Even with reductions in the loss of older forests, northern spotted owl populations continue to decline. Moreover, a number of other goals have not been met, including producing a sustainable supply of timber, decommissioning roads, biodiversity monitoring, significant levels of restoration of riparian and dry forests, and adaptation and learning through adaptive management. New conservation concerns have arisen, including a major threat to spotted owl populations from expanding populations of the nonnative barred owl, effects of fire suppression on forest succession, fire behavior in dry forests, and lack of development of diverse early-seral vegetation as a result of fire suppression in drier parts of moist forests. Climate change and invasive species have emerged as threats to native biodiversity, and expansion of the wildland-urban interface has limited the ability of managers to restore fire to fire-dependent ecosystems. The policy, social, and ecological contexts for the NWFP have changed since it was implemented. The contribution of federal lands continues to be essential to the conservation and recovery of fish listed under the Endangered Species Act and northern spotted owl and marbled murrelet populations. Conservation on federal lands alone, however, is likely insufficient to reach the goals of the NWFP or the newer goals of the 2012 planning rule, which emphasizes managing for ecosystem goals (e.g. ecological resilience) and a few species of concern, rather than the population viability of hundreds of individual species.

Publisher Summary This chapter describes how one goes about performing a delay analysis when the Project schedule is a bar chart. The first step in analyzing a bar chart is to define the critical path. Every Project has a critical path. If a Project does not have a critical path method (CPM) schedule, it does not mean that it does not have a critical path. In CPM scheduling, the drafter of the schedule prepares a logic or network diagram. Once durations are assigned to the activities in the diagram, the critical path is calculated. This is a purely arithmetic process. The definition of the critical path is the longest path of work activities through the network diagram. Thus, the path with the longest duration defines the shortest possible duration for the Project. The Project cannot finish until every path has been traversed. A delay to an activity on the critical path will delay the completion date of the Project. Whether the critical path is defined in a CPM schedule or a bar chart, every Project has a series of interrelated activities that will control the Project completion time.

The preceding chapters discussed the performance of a delay analysis using a detailed Critical Path Method schedule and a bar chart. This chapter addresses the “worst case” situation: the project with no as-planned schedule or schedule updates. This is the most difficult situation in which to perform a delay analysis. Again, as the available information decreases, the analyst must make more assumptions, and the analysis becomes more subjective. However, while this type of analysis is difficult, it is not impossible.

The Unified Neutral Theory of Biodiversity has been put forth to explain species coexistence in forests worldwide, but its assumption of species equivalence has been met with much debate. Theoretical advancements have reconciled the opposing concepts of neutral and niche theories as two ends of a continuum, improving our understanding of global patterns in diversity and community assembly. However, the relative importance of niche and neutral processes remains understudied in temperate forests. To determine the balance of niche and neutral processes in climatically limited subalpine temperate forests, we established the Utah Forest Dynamics Plot, a 13.64‐ha plot comprising 27,845 stems ≥1 cm diameter at breast height (1.37 m) representing 17 species at 3100 m elevation on the Colorado Plateau. We examined the fit of niche‐ and neutral‐based models to the species abundance distribution (SAD), and tested three underlying assumptions of neutral theory. The neutral model was a poor fit to the SAD, but we did not find the alternative model to provide a better fit. Using spatial analyses, we tested the neutral assumptions of functional equivalence, ecological equivalence, and habitat generality. Half of species analyzed were characterized by non‐neutral recruitment processes, and the two most abundant species exhibited asymmetric competitive and facilitative interactions with each other. The assumption of habitat generality was strongly contradicted, with all common species having habitat preferences. We conclude niche‐based processes play the dominant role in structuring subalpine forest communities, and we suggest possible explanations for variation in the relative importance of niche vs. neutral processes along ecological gradients.

Shrubs contribute to the forest fuel load; their distribution is important to tree mortality and regeneration, and vertebrate occupancy. We used a method new to fire ecology—extensive continuous mapping of trees and shrub patches within a single large (25.6 ha) study site—to identify changes in shrub area, biomass, and spatial pattern due to fire reintroduction by a backfire following a century of fire exclusion in lower montane forests of the Sierra Nevada, California, USA. We examined whether trees in close proximity to shrubs prior to fire experienced higher mortality rates than trees in areas without shrubs. We calculated shrub biomass using demography subplots and existing allometric equations, and we developed new equations for beaked hazel (Corylus cornuta ssp. californica [A. de Candolle] E. Murray) from full dissection of 50 stems. Fire decreased shrub patch area from 15.1 % to 0.9 %, reduced live shrub biomass from 3.49 Mg ha−1 to 0.27 Mg ha−1, and consumed 4.41 Mg ha−1 of living and dead shrubs. Distinct (non-overlapping) shrub patches decreased from 47 ha−1 to 6 ha−1. The mean distance between shrub patches increased 135 %. Distances between montane chaparral patches increased 285 %, compared to a 54 % increase in distances between riparian shrub patches and an increase of 267 % between generalist shrub patches. Fire-related tree mortality within shrub patches was marginally lower (67.6 % versus 71.8 %), showing a contrasting effect of shrubs on tree mortality between this forest ecosystem and chaparral-dominated ecosystems in which most trees are killed by fire.

Leucothoe davisiae Torr. ex A. Gray (Ericaceae), Sierra laurel, is an endemic shrub of the Sierra Nevada, Klamath Mountains, and Warner Mountains. We compared the woody plant community and allometry of Leucothoe with one widespread wetland shrub, red osier dogwood (Cornus sericea L. (Cornaceae)), and one widespread upland shrub, bush chinquapin (Chrysolepis sempervirens (Kellogg) Hjelmq. (Fagaceae)), in an Abies concolor – Pinus lambertiana forest. We examined 2282 mapped shrub patches and 34 392 trees in the Yosemite Forest Dynamics Plot (25.6 ha), Yosemite National Park, California, USA. We dissected 40–41 stems of each shrub species and determined foliage, bark, wood, and total biomass as a function of stem diameter. Community compositions determined from plants within a 5 m buffer of Leucothoe were different from those reported for Leucothoe communities in the Siskiyou National Forest and the Central Klamath. Leucothoe allometry based on basal diameter was more variable (total biomass R2 = 0.64; P < 0.001) than that of Cornus (R2 = 0.93; P < 0.001) or Chrysolepis (R2 = 0.95; P < 0.001), reflecting greater canopy variation. Allometry based on diameter at 1.37 m along the main stem offered equivalent explanatory power for Cornus (R2 = 0.89; P < 0.001) and Chrysolepis (R2 = 0.84; P < 0.001), but Leucothoe rarely reached that stature. These allometric equations that we report can improve species-specific modeling of carbon dynamics, fuel loading, and fire behavior.

Populus tremuloides Michx. (aspen) is an iconic species of the southwestern United States, where it is known for its extensive clonality. The size of clones and pattern of clonal distribution within and among stands can provide important clues to the species' evolution and ecology, but there are very few studies that have conducted the type of sampling necessary to define these features. We examined the genetic composition and habitat associations of aspen in a mixed-species forest in Cedar Breaks National Monument on the Markagunt Plateau, southwestern Utah. Genetic analysis of 94 stems ≥1 cm diameter at breast height (dbh) selected from a population census of 2742 stems within a contiguous 13.64-ha plot revealed 2 spatially cohesive triploid genets and 2 diploid genets (all differing in 8 to 15 alleles). Aspen abundance within the 13.64 ha varied between 0 and 634 stems/ha across 8 distinct habitat types. Regenerating aspen stems (1 cm ≤ dbh < 5 cm) varied between 0 and 112 stems/ha, with higher levels of regeneration in habitats with greater aspen dominance relative to other tree species. Recent regeneration may have been stimulated by a Dendroctonous rufipennis outbreak in the 1990s, which killed a high proportion of Picea engelmannii. Even though the visual impression is of a single aspen clone, the 4 identified genets suggest a higher-than-expected level of genetic diversity in this mixed-species stand which may confer resilience to increasing climate variability and drought. Furthermore, aspen regeneration in areas of both low and high adult aspen densities show that these mixed stands can support vigorous aspen populations.

The anticancer drug (2-[4-amino-3-methylphenyl]-5-fluorobenzothiazole lysylamide dihydrochloride) (NSC 710305, Phortress) is a metabolically activated prodrug that causes DNA adduct formation and subsequent toxicity. Preclinically, it was found that hepatic, bone marrow, and pulmonary toxicity presented challenges to developing this drug. An ex vivo precision-cut lung slice (PCLS) model was used to search for concentration dependent effects of NSC 710305 (10, 25, 50, and 100 µM) on cytokine content, protein content, and immuno/histological endpoints. Preparation and culture of PCLS caused an initial spike in proinflammatory cytokine expression and therefore treatment with NSC 710305 was delayed until 48 h after initiating the slice cultures to avoid confounding the response to slicing with any drug response. PCLSs were evaluated after 24, 48, and 72 h exposures to NSC 710305. Reversibility of toxicity due to the 72-h treatment was evaluated after a 24-h recovery period. NSC 710305 caused a concentration-dependent cytokine response, and only the toxicity caused by a 72-h exposure to 25 µM reversed during the 24-h recovery period. Immuno/histological examination and quantitation of tissue protein levels indicated that tissue destruction, ED-1 (activated macrophage) staining, and protein levels were associated with the levels of proinflammatory cytokines in the tissue. In conclusion, the concentration- and time-dependent inflammatory response of PCLS to NSC 710305 preceded relevant tissue damage by a few days. The no-observable adverse effect level (NOAEL) for 24, 48, and 72 h exposures was established as 10 µM NSC 710305.

Post-fire tree mortality models are vital tools used by forest land managers to predict fire effects, estimate delayed mortality and develop management prescriptions. We evaluated the performance of mortality models within the First Order Fire Effects Model (FOFEM) software, and compared their performance to locally-parameterised models based on five different forms. We evaluated all models at the individual tree and stand levels with a dataset comprising 34174 trees from a mixed-conifer forest in the Sierra Nevada, California that burned in the 2013 Rim Fire. We compared stand-level accuracy across a range of spatial scales, and we used point pattern analysis to test the accuracy with which mortality models predict post-fire tree spatial pattern. FOFEM under-predicted mortality for the three conifers, possibly because of the timing of the Rim Fire during a severe multi-year drought. Locally-parameterised models based on crown scorch were most accurate in predicting individual tree mortality, but tree diameter-based models were more accurate at the stand level for Abies concolor and large-diameter Pinus lambertiana, the most abundant trees in this forest. Stand-level accuracy was reduced by spatially correlated error at small spatial scales, but stabilised at scales ≥1ha. The predictive error of FOFEM generated inaccurate predictions of post-fire spatial pattern at small scales, and this error could be reduced by improving FOFEM model accuracy for small trees.

This viewpoint discusses the history of Jessica Park, a professional artist who is an adult with autism. The narrative was constructed from historical descriptive research conducted by the author using published accounts and interviews with the artist, her mother, and two childhood companions. Examples of artwork produced in elementary through high school reflect the young artist's unique thoughts, feelings, life experiences, and ways of understanding her world. The historical record shows that the ability to establish relationships with others based on the underlying presence of affect, on shared common interests, and on creative activity contributed significantly to the artist's developmental progress as a person with autism.

This article addresses the art lessons of a young artist with Asperger Syndrome (AS). It discusses the interpersonal relationship between the author, an art teacher, and this young art student with an Autism Spectrum Disorder (ASD). It also describes some of the behavior modification techniques I used during art lessons to instruct the young artist. It describes artmaking in terms of subject matter, art materials, and the environment. I acted as curator of this young artist’s first solo art exhibit at Macy Gallery, Teachers College, Columbia University. I discuss how working in these areas of great interest for this young artist with AS contributed to advance his artistic talents and acquisition of skills. In addition, this work may have impacted his interpersonal skills and social communication skills, including his use of social language.

This article addresses the art process of some celebrated artists with autism, such as Nadia (1977), Stephen Wiltshire (1987, 1995), and Jessica Park (1967, 2001). There is a limited amount of literature and research in the field of art education on children with autism who demonstrate talent and skill in the visual arts. A recent study reported that 1 out of every 150 children is diagnosed with autism in the United States (Carey, 2007). When engaged in artmaking, some children with autism demonstrate repetitive behavior and a narrow area of interest. The likelihood is high that an art teacher may have a student with autism in an inclusive art classroom (Furniss, 2007). Artmaking for some children with autism may be an opportunity to learn in the arts, as well as an opportunity to learn other subjects through the arts (Furniss, 2008).

Mortality processes in old-growth forests are generally assumed to be driven by gap-scale disturbance, with only a limited role ascribed to density-dependent mortality, but these assumptions are rarely tested with data sets incorporating repeated measurements. Using a 12-ha spatially explicit plot censused 13 years apart in an approximately 500-year-old Pseudotsuga-Tsuga forest, we demonstrate significant density-dependent mortality and spatially aggregated tree recruitment. However, the combined effect of these strongly nonrandom demographic processes was to maintain tree patterns in a state of dynamic equilibrium. Density-dependent mortality was most pronounced for the dominant late-successional species, Tsuga heterophylla. The long-lived, early-seral Pseudotsuga menziesii experienced an annual stem mortality rate of 0.84% and no new recruitment. Late-seral species Tsuga and Abies amabilis had nearly balanced demographic rates of ingrowth and mortality. The 2.34% mortality rate for Taxus brevifolia was higher than expected, notably less than ingrowth, and strongly affected by proximity to Tsuga. Large-diameter Tsuga structured both the regenerating conspecific and heterospecific cohorts with recruitment of Tsuga and Abies unlikely in neighborhoods crowded with large-diameter competitors (P0.001). Density-dependent competitive interactions strongly shape forest communities even five centuries after stand initiation, underscoring the dynamic nature of even equilibrial old-growth forests.

Fire is one of the principal agents changing forest carbon stocks and landscape level distributions of carbon, but few studies have addressed how accurate carbon accounting of fire-killed trees is or can be. We used a large number of forested plots (1646), detailed selection of species-specific and location-specific allometric equations, vegetation type maps with high levels of accuracy, and Monte Carlo simulation to model the amount and uncertainty of aboveground tree carbon present in tree species (hereafter, carbon) within Yosemite and Sequoia & Kings Canyon National Parks. We estimated aboveground carbon in trees within Yosemite National Park to be 25 Tg of carbon (C) (confidence interval (CI): 23–27 Tg C), and in Sequoia & Kings Canyon National Park to be 20 Tg C (CI: 18–21 Tg C). Low-severity and moderate-severity fire had little or no effect on the amount of carbon sequestered in trees at the landscape scale, and high-severity fire did not immediately consume much carbon. Although many of our data inputs were more accurate than those used in similar studies in other locations, the total uncertainty of carbon estimates was still greater than ±10%, mostly due to potential uncertainties in landscape-scale vegetation type mismatches and trees larger than the ranges of existing allometric equations. If carbon inventories are to be meaningfully used in policy, there is an urgent need for more accurate landscape classification methods, improvement in allometric equations for tree species, and better understanding of the uncertainties inherent in existing carbon accounting methods.