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Introduction The liberal use of blood cultures in emergency departments (EDs) leads to low yields and high numbers of false-positive results. False-positive, contaminated cultures are associated with prolonged hospital stays, increased antibiotic usage and even higher hospital mortality rates. This trial aims to investigate whether a recently developed and validated machine learning model for predicting blood culture outcomes can safely and effectively guide clinicians in withholding unnecessary blood culture analysis.Methods and analysis A randomised controlled, non-inferiority trial comparing current practice with a machine learning-guided approach. The primary objective is to determine whether the machine learning based approach is non-inferior to standard practice based on 30-day mortality. Secondary outcomes include hospital length-of stay and hospital admission rates. Other outcomes include model performance and antibiotic usage. Participants will be recruited in the EDs of multiple hospitals in the Netherlands. A total of 7584 participants will be included.Ethics and dissemination Possible participants will receive verbal information and a paper information brochure regarding the trial. They will be given at least 1 hour consideration time before providing informed consent. Research results will be published in peer-reviewed journals. This study has been approved by the Amsterdam University Medical Centers’ local medical ethics review committee (No 22.0567). The study will be conducted in concordance with the principles of the Declaration of Helsinki and in accordance with the Medical Research Involving Human Subjects Act, General Data Privacy Regulation and Medical Device Regulation.Trial registration number NCT06163781.

OBJECTIVES:. Sepsis is an evolving process and proposed subtypes may change over time. We hypothesized that previously established sepsis subtypes are dynamic, prognostic of outcome, and trajectories are associated with host response alterations. DESIGN:. A secondary analysis of two observational critically ill sepsis cohorts: the Molecular diAgnosis and Risk stratification of Sepsis (MARS) and the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care-IV (MIMIC-IV). SETTING:. ICUs in the Netherlands and United States between 2011–2014 and 2008–2019, respectively. PARTICIPANTS:. Patient admission fulfilling the Sepsis-3 criteria upon ICU admission adjudicated to one of four previously identified subtypes, comprising 2,416 admissions in MARS and 10,745 in MIMIC-IV. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES:. Subtype stability and the changes per subtype on days 2, 4 and 7 of ICU admission were assessed. Next, the associated between change in clinical subtype and outcome and host response alterations. RESULTS:. In MARS, upon ICU admission, 6% (n = 150) of the patient admissions were α-type, 3% (n = 70) β-type, 55% (n = 1317) γ-type, and 36% (n = 879) δ-type; in MIMIC-IV, this was α = 22% (n = 2398), β = 22% (n = 2365), γ = 31% (n = 3296), and δ = 25% (2686). Overall, prevalence of subtypes was stable over days 2, 4, and 7. However, 28–56% (MARS/MIMIC-IV) changed from α on ICU admission to any of the other subtypes on day 2, 33–71% from β, 57–32% from γ, and 50–48% from δ. On day 4, overall subtype persistence was 33–36%. γ or δ admissions remaining in, or transitioning to, subtype γ on days 2, 4, and 7 exhibited lower mortality rates compared with those remaining in, or transitioning to, subtype δ. Longitudinal host response biomarkers reflecting inflammation, coagulation, and endothelial dysfunction were most altered in the δ-δ group, followed by the γ-δ group, independent of the day or biomarker domain. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE:. In two large cohorts, subtype change to δ was associated with worse clinical outcome and more aberrant biomarkers reflecting inflammation, coagulation, and endothelial dysfunction. These findings underscore the importance of monitoring sepsis subtypes and their linked host responses for improved prognostication and personalized treatment strategies.

Abstract Background The Dutch Working Party on Antibiotic Policy (SWAB) in collaboration with relevant professional societies, has updated their evidence-based guidelines on empiric antibacterial therapy of sepsis in adults. Methods Our multidisciplinary guideline committee generated ten population, intervention, comparison, and outcome (PICO) questions relevant for adult patients with sepsis. For each question, a literature search was performed to obtain the best available evidence and assessed using the Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development, and Evaluation (GRADE) system. The quality of evidence for clinically relevant outcomes was graded from high to very low. In structured consensus meetings, the committee formulated recommendations as strong or weak. When evidence could not be obtained, recommendations were provided based on expert opinion and experience (good practice statements). Results Fifty-five recommendations on the antibacterial therapy of sepsis were generated. Recommendations on empiric antibacterial therapy choices were differentiated for sepsis according to the source of infection, the potential causative pathogen and its resistance pattern. One important revision was the distinction between low, increased and high risk of infection with Enterobacterales resistant to third generation cephalosporins (3GRC-E) to guide the choice of empirical therapy. Other new topics included empirical antibacterial therapy in patients with a reported penicillin allergy and the role of pharmacokinetics and pharmacodynamics to guide dosing in sepsis. We also established recommendations on timing and duration of antibacterial treatment. Conclusions Our multidisciplinary committee formulated evidence-based recommendations for the empiric antibacterial therapy of adults with sepsis in The Netherlands.

Abstract Dexamethasone improves clinical outcomes in COVID-19 patients requiring supplementary oxygen. We investigated possible mechanisms of action by comparing sixteen plasma host response biomarkers in general ward patients before and after implementation of dexamethasone as standard of care. 48 patients without and 126 patients with dexamethasone treatment were sampled within 48 h of admission. Endothelial cell and coagulation activation biomarkers were comparable. Dexamethasone treatment was associated with lower plasma interleukin (IL)-6 and IL-1 receptor antagonist levels, whilst other inflammation parameters were not affected. These data argue against modification of vascular-procoagulant responses as an early mechanism of action of dexamethasone in COVID-19.

Abstract Background Clarithromycin may act as immune-regulating treatment in sepsis and acute respiratory dysfunction syndrome. However, clinical evidence remains inconclusive. We aimed to evaluate whether clarithromycin improves 28-day mortality among patients with sepsis, respiratory and multiple organ dysfunction syndrome. Methods We conducted a multicenter, randomized, clinical trial in patients with sepsis. Participants with ratio of partial oxygen pressure to fraction of inspired oxygen less than 200 and more than 3 SOFA points from systems other than the respiratory function were enrolled between December 2017 and September 2019. Patients were randomized to receive 1 gr of clarithromycin or placebo intravenously once daily for 4 consecutive days. The primary endpoint was 28-day all-cause mortality. Secondary outcomes were 90-day mortality; sepsis response (defined as at least 25% decrease in SOFA score by day 7); sepsis recurrence; and differences in peripheral blood cell populations and leukocyte transcriptomics. Results Fifty-five patients were allocated to each arm. By day 28, 27 (49.1%) patients in the clarithromycin and 25 (45.5%) in the placebo group died (risk difference 3.6% [95% confidence interval (CI) − 15.7 to 22.7]; P = 0.703, adjusted OR 1.03 [95%CI 0.35–3.06]; P = 0.959). There were no statistical differences in 90-day mortality and sepsis response. Clarithromycin was associated with lower incidence of sepsis recurrence (OR 0.21 [95%CI 0.06–0.68]; P = 0.012); significant increase in monocyte HLA-DR expression; expansion of non-classical monocytes; and upregulation of genes involved in cholesterol homeostasis. Serious and non-serious adverse events were equally distributed. Conclusions Clarithromycin did not reduce mortality among patients with sepsis with respiratory and multiple organ dysfunction. Clarithromycin was associated with lower sepsis recurrence, possibly through a mechanism of immune restoration. Clinical trial registration clinicaltrials.gov identifier NCT03345992 registered 17 November 2017; EudraCT 2017-001056-55.

Abstract Chronic kidney disease (CKD) has been recognized as a highly prevalent risk factor for both the severity of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) and COVID-19 associated adverse outcomes. In this multicenter observational cohort study, we aim to determine mortality and readmission rates of patients hospitalized for COVID-19 across varying CKD stages. We performed a multicenter cohort study among COVID-19 patients included in the Dutch COVIDPredict cohort. The cohort consists of hospitalized patients from March 2020 until July 2021 with PCR-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection or a highly suspected CT scan-based infection with a CORADS score ≥ 4. A total of 4151 hospitalized COVID-19 patients were included of who 389 had a history of CKD before admission. After adjusting for all confounding covariables, in patients with CKD stage 3a, stage 3b, stage 4 and patients with KTX (kidney transplantation), odds ratios of death and readmission compared to patients without CKD ranged from 1.96 to 8.94. We demonstrate an evident increased 12-week mortality and readmission rate in patients with chronic kidney disease. Besides justified concerns for kidney transplant patients, clinicians should also be aware of more severe COVID-19 outcomes and increased vulnerability in CKD patients.

Abstract Skeletal muscle‐related symptoms are common in both acute coronavirus disease (Covid)‐19 and post‐acute sequelae of Covid‐19 (PASC). In this narrative review, we discuss cellular and molecular pathways that are affected and consider these in regard to skeletal muscle involvement in other conditions, such as acute respiratory distress syndrome, critical illness myopathy, and post‐viral fatigue syndrome. Patients with severe Covid‐19 and PASC suffer from skeletal muscle weakness and exercise intolerance. Histological sections present muscle fibre atrophy, metabolic alterations, and immune cell infiltration. Contributing factors to weakness and fatigue in patients with severe Covid‐19 include systemic inflammation, disuse, hypoxaemia, and malnutrition. These factors also contribute to post‐intensive care unit (ICU) syndrome and ICU‐acquired weakness and likely explain a substantial part of Covid‐19‐acquired weakness. The skeletal muscle weakness and exercise intolerance associated with PASC are more obscure. Direct severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus (SARS‐CoV)‐2 viral infiltration into skeletal muscle or an aberrant immune system likely contribute. Similarities between skeletal muscle alterations in PASC and chronic fatigue syndrome deserve further study. Both SARS‐CoV‐2‐specific factors and generic consequences of acute disease likely underlie the observed skeletal muscle alterations in both acute Covid‐19 and PASC.

Abstract Background The plasticity of monocytes enables them to exert multiple roles during an immune response, including promoting immune tolerance. How monocytes alter their functions to convey immune tolerance in the context of lower respiratory tract infections in humans is not well understood. Here, we sought to identify epigenetic and transcriptomic features of cytokine production capacity in circulating monocytes during community-acquired pneumonia (CAP). Methods Circulating CD14+ monocytes were obtained from the blood of CAP patients included in a longitudinal, observational cohort study, on hospitalization (acute stage, n=75), and from the same patients after a 1-month follow-up (recovery stage, n=56). Age and sex-matched non-infectious participants were included as controls (n=41). Ex vivo cytokine production after lipopolysaccharide (LPS) exposure was assessed by multiplex assay. Transcriptomes of circulating monocytes were generated by RNA-sequencing, and DNA methylation levels in the same monocytes were measured by reduced representation bisulfite sequencing. Data were integrated by fitting projection-to-latent-structure models, and signatures derived by partial least squares discrimination. Results Monocytes captured during the acute stage exhibited impaired TNF, IL-1β, IL-6, and IL-10 production after ex vivo stimulation with LPS, relative to controls. IL-6 production was not resolved in recovery monocytes. Multivariate analysis of RNA-sequencing data identified 2938 significantly altered RNA transcripts in acute-stage monocytes (fold expression ≤−1.5 or ≥1.5; adjusted p ≤ 0.01), relative to controls. Comparing DNA methylation levels in circulating monocytes of CAP patients to controls revealed minimal differences, specifically in DNAse hypersensitive sites (HS) of acute-stage monocytes. Data integration identified a cholesterol biosynthesis gene signature and DNAse HS axis of IL-1β and IL-10 production (R 2 =0.51). Conclusions Circulating monocytes obtained from CAP patients during the acute stage exhibited impaired cytokine production capacities, indicative of reprogramming to a state of immune tolerance, which was not fully resolved after 1 month. Our split-sample study showed that 51% of the immune tolerance phenotype can be explained, at least in part, by coordinated shifts in cholesterol biosynthesis gene expression and DNAse HS methylation levels. A multi-scale model identified an epigenetic and transcriptomic signature of immune tolerance in monocytes, with implications for future interventions in immunosuppression. Trial registration NCT number NCT02928367

Abstract Background The gut microbiome plays a protective role in the host defense against pneumonia. The composition of the lung microbiota has been shown to be predictive of clinical outcome in critically ill patients. However, the dynamics of the lung and gut microbiota composition over time during severe pneumonia remains ill defined. We used a mouse model of pneumonia-derived sepsis caused by Klebsiella pneumoniae in order to follow the pathogen burden as well as the composition of the lung, tongue and fecal microbiota from local infection towards systemic spread. Results Already at 6 h post-inoculation with K. pneumoniae, marked changes in the lung microbiota were seen. The alpha diversity of the lung microbiota did not change throughout the infection, whereas the beta diversity did. A shift between the prominent lung microbiota members of Streptococcus and Klebsiella was seen from 12 h onwards and was most pronounced at 18 h post-inoculation (PI) which was also reflected in the release of pro-inflammatory cytokines indicating severe pulmonary inflammation. Around 18 h PI, K. pneumoniae bacteremia was observed together with a systemic inflammatory response. The composition of the tongue microbiota was not affected during infection, even at 18–30 h PI when K. pneumoniae had become the dominant bacterium in the lung. Moreover, we observed differences in the gut microbiota during pulmonary infection. The gut microbiota contributed to the lung microbiota at 12 h PI, however, this decreased at a later stage of the infection. Conclusions At 18 h PI, K. pneumoniae was the dominant member in the lung microbiota. The lung microbiota profiles were significantly explained by the lung K. pneumoniae bacterial counts and Klebsiella and Streptococcus were correlating with the measured cytokine levels in the lung and/or blood. The oral microbiota in mice, however, was not influenced by the severity of murine pneumonia, whereas the gut microbiota was affected. This study is of significance for future studies investigating the role of the lung microbiota during pneumonia and sepsis.

Summary: Human studies describing the immunomodulatory role of the intestinal microbiota in systemic infections are lacking. Here, we sought to relate microbiota profiles from 115 patients with community-acquired pneumonia (CAP), both on hospital admission and following discharge, to concurrent circulating monocyte and neutrophil function. Rectal microbiota composition did not explain variation in cytokine responses in acute CAP (median 0%, IQR 0.0%–1.9%), but did one month following hospitalization (median 4.1%, IQR 0.0%–6.6%, p = 0.0035). Gene expression analysis of monocytes showed that undisrupted microbiota profiles following hospitalization were associated with upregulated interferon, interleukin-10, and G-protein-coupled-receptor-ligand-binding pathways. While CAP is characterized by profoundly distorted gut microbiota, the effects of these disruptions on cytokine responses and transcriptional profiles during acute infection were absent or modest. However, rectal microbiota were related to altered cytokine responses one month following CAP hospitalization, which may provide insights into potential mechanisms contributing to the high risk of recurrent infections following hospitalization.

Summary: Background: Overuse of blood cultures (BCs) in emergency departments (EDs) leads to low yields and high numbers of contaminated cultures, accompanied by increased diagnostics, antibiotic usage, prolonged hospitalization, and mortality. We aimed to simplify and validate a recently developed machine learning model to help safely withhold BC testing in low-risk patients. Methods: We extracted data from the electronic health records (EHR) for 44.123 unique ED visits with BC sampling in the Amsterdam UMC (locations VUMC and AMC; the Netherlands), Zaans Medical Center (ZMC; the Netherlands), and Beth Israel Deaconess Medical Center (BIDMC; United States) in periods between 2011 and 2021. We trained a machine learning model on the VUMC data to predict blood culture outcomes and validated it in the AMC, ZMC, and BIDMC with subsequent real-time prospective evaluation in the VUMC. Findings: The model had an Area Under the Receiver Operating Characteristics curve (AUROC) of 0.81 (95%-CI = 0.78–0.83) in the VUMC test set. The most important predictors were temperature, creatinine, and C-reactive protein. The AUROCs in the validation cohorts were 0.80 (AMC; 0.78–0.82), 0.76 (ZMC; 0.74–0.78), and 0.75 (BIDMC; 0.74–0.76). During real-time prospective evaluation in the EHR of the VUMC, it reached an AUROC of 0.76 (0.71–0.81) among 590 patients with BC draws in the ED. The prospective evaluation showed that the model can be used to safely withhold blood culture analyses in at least 30% of patients in the ED. Interpretation: We developed a machine learning model to predict blood culture outcomes in the ED, which retained its performance during external validation and real-time prospective evaluation. Our model can identify patients at low risk of having a positive blood culture. Using the model in practice can significantly reduce the number of blood culture analyses and thus avoid the hidden costs of false-positive culture results. Funding: This research project was funded by the Amsterdam Public Health – Quality of Care program and the Dutch “Doen of Laten” project (project number: 839205002).

Summary: Background: Community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) can be caused by a variety of pathogens, of which Streptococcus pneumoniae, Influenza and currently SARS-CoV-2 are the most common. We sought to identify shared and pathogen-specific host response features by directly comparing different aetiologies of CAP. Methods: We measured 72 plasma biomarkers in a cohort of 265 patients hospitalized for CAP, all sampled within 48 hours of admission, and 28 age-and sex matched non-infectious controls. We stratified the biomarkers into several pathophysiological domains- antiviral response, vascular response and function, coagulation, systemic inflammation, and immune checkpoint markers. We directly compared CAP caused by SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19, n=39), Streptococcus pneumoniae (CAP-strep, n=27), Influenza (CAP-flu, n=22) and other or unknown pathogens (CAP-other, n=177). We adjusted the comparisons for age, sex and disease severity scores. Findings: Biomarkers reflective of a stronger cell-mediated antiviral response clearly separated COVID-19 from other CAPs (most notably granzyme B). Biomarkers reflecting activation and function of the vasculature showed endothelial barrier integrity was least affected in COVID-19, while glycocalyx degradation and angiogenesis were enhanced relative to other CAPs. Notably, markers of coagulation activation, including D-dimer, were not different between the CAP groups. Ferritin was most increased in COVID-19, while other systemic inflammation biomarkers such as IL-6 and procalcitonin were highest in CAP-strep. Immune checkpoint markers showed distinctive patterns in viral and non-viral CAP, with highly elevated levels of Galectin-9 in COVID-19. Interpretation: Our investigation provides insight into shared and distinct pathophysiological mechanisms in different aetiologies of CAP, which may help guide new pathogen-specific therapeutic strategies. Funding: This study was financially supported by the Dutch Research Council, the European Commission and the Netherlands Organization for Health Research and Development.

Abstract The pathophysiology of sepsis is multi-facetted and highly complex. As sepsis is a leading cause of global mortality that still lacks targeted therapies, increased understanding of its pathogenesis is vital for improving clinical care and outcomes. An increasing number of investigations seeks to unravel the complexity of sepsis through high-dimensional data analysis, enabled by advances in -omics technologies. Here, we summarize progress in the following major -omics fields: genomics, epigenomics, transcriptomics, proteomics, lipidomics, and microbiomics. We describe what these fields can teach us about sepsis, and highlight current trends and future challenges. Finally, we focus on multi-omics integration, and discuss the challenges in deriving biological meaning and clinical applications from these types of data.

Abstract Background The microbiome has emerged as an important player in the pathophysiology of a whole spectrum of diseases that affect the critically ill. We hypothesized that differences in microbiota composition across vendors can influence murine models of pulmonary lipopolysaccharide (LPS) inflammation and Gram-negative pneumonia. Methods A multi-vendor approach was used with genetically similar mice derived from three different vendors (Janvier, Envigo, Charles River). This model was employed to study the effect on the host response to a pulmonary LPS challenge (1 μg Klebsiella pneumoniae LPS, intranasal), as well as experimental K. pneumoniae infection (ATCC43816, 1 × 104 CFU, intranasal). Results Gut microbiota analysis revealed profound intervendor differences in bacterial composition as shown by beta diversity and at various taxonomic levels. Tumor necrosis factor (TNF)-α and interleukin (IL)-6 release in lung and bronchoalveolar lavage fluid (BALF) were determined 6 and 24 h after intranasal treatment with LPS. No differences were found between the groups, with the exception for Envigo, showing a higher level of TNFα in lung and BALF at 6 h compared to Janvier and Charles River. In another set of experiments, mice from different vendors were subjected to a clinically relevant model of Gram-negative pneumonia (K. pneumoniae). At 12 and 36 h post-infection, no intervendor differences were found in bacterial dissemination, or TNFα and IL-6 levels in the lungs. In line, markers for organ failure did not differ between groups. Conclusions Although there was a marked variation in the gut microbiota composition of mice from different vendors, the hypothesized impact on our models of pulmonary inflammation and severe pneumonia was limited. This is of significance for experimental settings, showing that differences in gut microbiota do not have to lead to differences in outcome.

Background: To optimise the use of available SARS-CoV-2 vaccines, some advocate delaying second vaccination for individuals infected within six months. We studied whether post-vaccination immune response is equally potent in individuals infected over six months prior to vaccination. Methods: We tested serum IgG binding to SARS-CoV-2 spike protein and neutralising capacity in 110 healthcare workers, before and after both BNT162b2 messenger RNA (mRNA) vaccinations. We compared outcomes between participants with more recent infection (n = 18, median two months, IQR 2-3), with infection-vaccination interval over six months (n = 19, median nine months, IQR 9-10), and to those not previously infected (n = 73). Findings: Both recently and earlier infected participants showed comparable humoral immune responses after a single mRNA vaccination, while exceeding those of previously uninfected persons after two vaccinations with 2.5 fold (p = 0.003) and 3.4 fold (p

Background Bacterial intestinal communities interact with the immune system and may contribute to protection against community-acquired pneumonia (CAP). Intestinal viruses are closely integrated with these bacterial communities, yet the composition and clinical significance of these communities in CAP patients are unknown. The aims of this exploratory study were to characterise the composition of the rectal bacteriome and virome at hospital admission for CAP, and to determine if microbiota signatures correlate with clinical outcomes.Methods We performed a prospective observational cohort study in CAP patients, admitted to a university or community hospital in the Netherlands between October 2016 and July 2018, and controls. Rectal bacteriome and virome composition were characterised using 16S ribosomal RNA gene sequencing and virus discovery next-generation sequencing, respectively. Unsupervised multi-omics factor analysis was used to assess the co-variation of bacterial and viral communities, which served as primary predictor. The clinical outcomes of interest were the time to clinical stability and the length of hospital stay.Findings 64 patients and 38 controls were analysed. Rectal bacterial alpha (p = 0•0015) and beta diversity (r2=0•023, p = 0•004) of CAP patients differed from controls. Bacterial and viral microbiota signatures correlated with the time to clinical stability (hazard ratio 0•43, 95% confidence interval 0•20–0•93, p = 0•032) and the length of hospital stay (hazard ratio 0•37, 95% confidence interval 0•17–0•81, p = 0•012), although only the latter remained significant following p-value adjustment for examining multiple candidate cut-points (p = 0•12 and p = 0•046, respectively).Interpretation This exploratory study provides preliminary evidence that intestinal bacteriome and virome signatures could be linked with clinical outcomes in CAP. Such exploratory data, when validated in independent cohorts, could inform the development of a microbiota-based diagnostic panel used to predict clinical outcomes in CAP.Funding Netherlands Organization for Scientific Research and Netherlands Organization for Health Research and Development.

The exact immunopathophysiology of community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) caused by SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) remains clouded by a general lack of relevant disease controls. The scarcity of single-cell investigations in the broader population of patients with CAP renders it difficult to distinguish immune features unique to COVID-19 from the common characteristics of a dysregulated host response to pneumonia. We performed integrated single-cell transcriptomic and proteomic analyses in peripheral blood mononuclear cells from a matched cohort of eight patients with COVID-19, eight patients with CAP caused by Influenza A or other pathogens, and four non-infectious control subjects. Using this balanced, multi-omics approach, we describe shared and diverging transcriptional and phenotypic patterns—including increased levels of type I interferon-stimulated natural killer cells in COVID-19, cytotoxic CD8 T EMRA cells in both COVID-19 and influenza, and distinctive monocyte compositions between all groups—and thereby expand our understanding of the peripheral immune response in different etiologies of pneumonia.

Objective Develop and validate models that predict mortality of patients diagnosed with COVID-19 admitted to the hospital.Design Retrospective cohort study.Setting A multicentre cohort across 10 Dutch hospitals including patients from 27 February to 8 June 2020.Participants SARS-CoV-2 positive patients (age ≥18) admitted to the hospital.Main outcome measures 21-day all-cause mortality evaluated by the area under the receiver operator curve (AUC), sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value and negative predictive value. The predictive value of age was explored by comparison with age-based rules used in practice and by excluding age from the analysis.Results 2273 patients were included, of whom 516 had died or discharged to palliative care within 21 days after admission. Five feature sets, including premorbid, clinical presentation and laboratory and radiology values, were derived from 80 features. Additionally, an Analysis of Variance (ANOVA)-based data-driven feature selection selected the 10 features with the highest F values: age, number of home medications, urea nitrogen, lactate dehydrogenase, albumin, oxygen saturation (%), oxygen saturation is measured on room air, oxygen saturation is measured on oxygen therapy, blood gas pH and history of chronic cardiac disease. A linear logistic regression and non-linear tree-based gradient boosting algorithm fitted the data with an AUC of 0.81 (95% CI 0.77 to 0.85) and 0.82 (0.79 to 0.85), respectively, using the 10 selected features. Both models outperformed age-based decision rules used in practice (AUC of 0.69, 0.65 to 0.74 for age >70). Furthermore, performance remained stable when excluding age as predictor (AUC of 0.78, 0.75 to 0.81).Conclusion Both models showed good performance and had better test characteristics than age-based decision rules, using 10 admission features readily available in Dutch hospitals. The models hold promise to aid decision-making during a hospital bed shortage.

Background: Mortality rates are high among hospitalized patients with COVID-19, especially in those intubated on the ICU. Insight in pathways associated with unfavourable outcome may lead to new treatment strategies. Methods: We performed a prospective cohort study of patients with COVID-19 admitted to general ward or ICU who underwent serial blood sampling. To provide insight in the pathways involved in disease progression, associations were estimated between outcome risk and serial measurements of 64 biomarkers in potential important pathways of COVID-19 infection (inflammation, tissue damage, complement system, coagulation and fibrinolysis) using joint models combining Cox regression and linear mixed-effects models. For patients admitted to the general ward, the primary outcome was admission to the ICU or mortality (unfavourable outcome). For patients admitted to the ICU, the primary outcome was 12-week mortality. Findings: A total of 219 patients were included: 136 (62%) on the ward and 119 patients (54%) on the ICU; 36 patients (26%) were included in both cohorts because they were transferred from general ward to ICU. On the general ward, 54 of 136 patients (40%) had an unfavourable outcome and 31 (23%) patients died. On the ICU, 54 out of 119 patients (45%) died. Unfavourable outcome on the general ward was associated with changes in concentrations of IL-6, IL-8, IL-10, soluble Receptor for Advanced Glycation End Products (sRAGE), vascular cell adhesion molecule 1 (VCAM-1) and Pentraxin-3. Death on the ICU was associated with changes in IL-6, IL-8, IL-10, sRAGE, VCAM-1, Pentraxin-3, urokinase-type plasminogen activator receptor, IL-1-receptor antagonist, CD14, procalcitonin, tumor necrosis factor alfa, tissue factor, complement component 5a, Growth arrest–specific 6, angiopoietin 2, and lactoferrin. Pathway analysis showed that unfavourable outcome on the ward was mainly driven by chemotaxis and interleukin production, whereas death on ICU was associated with a variety of pathways including chemotaxis, cell-cell adhesion, innate host response mechanisms, including the complement system, viral life cycle regulation, angiogenesis, wound healing and response to corticosteroids. Interpretation: Clinical deterioration in patients with severe COVID-19 involves multiple pathways, including chemotaxis and interleukin production, but also endothelial dysfunction, the complement system, and immunothrombosis. Prognostic markers showed considerable overlap between general ward and ICU patients, but we identified distinct differences between groups that should be considered in the development and timing of interventional therapies in COVID-19. Funding: Amsterdam UMC, Amsterdam UMC Corona Fund, and Dr. C.J. Vaillant Fonds.

ABSTRACT Bacterial microbiota play a critical role in mediating local and systemic immunity, and shifts in these microbial communities have been linked to impaired outcomes in critical illness. Emerging data indicate that other intestinal organisms, including bacteriophages, viruses of eukaryotes, fungi, and protozoa, are closely interlinked with the bacterial microbiota and their host, yet their collective role during antibiotic perturbation and critical illness remains to be elucidated. We employed multi-omics factor analysis (MOFA) to systematically integrate the bacterial (16S rRNA), fungal (intergenic transcribed spacer 1 rRNA), and viral (virus discovery next-generation sequencing) components of the intestinal microbiota of 33 critically ill patients with and without sepsis and 13 healthy volunteers. In addition, we quantified the absolute abundances of bacteria and fungi using 16S and 18S rRNA PCRs and characterized the short-chain fatty acids (SCFAs) butyrate, acetate, and propionate using nuclear magnetic resonance spectroscopy. We observe that a loss of the anaerobic intestinal environment is directly correlated with an overgrowth of aerobic pathobionts and their corresponding bacteriophages as well as an absolute enrichment of opportunistic yeasts capable of causing invasive disease. We also observed a strong depletion of SCFAs in both disease states, which was associated with an increased absolute abundance of fungi with respect to bacteria. Therefore, these findings illustrate the complexity of transkingdom changes following disruption of the intestinal bacterial microbiome. IMPORTANCE While numerous studies have characterized antibiotic-induced disruptions of the bacterial microbiome, few studies describe how these disruptions impact the composition of other kingdoms such as viruses, fungi, and protozoa. To address this knowledge gap, we employed MOFA to systematically integrate viral, fungal, and bacterial sequence data from critically ill patients (with and without sepsis) and healthy volunteers, both prior to and following exposure to broad-spectrum antibiotics. In doing so, we show that modulation of the bacterial component of the microbiome has implications extending beyond this kingdom alone, enabling the overgrowth of potentially invasive fungi and viruses. While numerous preclinical studies have described similar findings in vitro, we confirm these observations in humans using an integrative analytic approach. These findings underscore the potential value of multi-omics data integration tools in interrogating how different components of the microbiota contribute to disease states. In addition, our findings suggest that there is value in further studying potential adjunctive therapies using anaerobic bacteria or SCFAs to reduce fungal expansion after antibiotic exposure, which could ultimately lead to improved outcomes in the intensive care unit (ICU).

Bacterial gut communities might predispose children to develop asthma. Yet, little is known about the role of these micro-organisms in adult asthmatics. We aimed to profile the relationship between fecal microbiota and asthma in a large-scale, ethnically diverse, observational cohort of adults. Fecal microbiota composition of 1632 adults (172 asthmatics and 1460 non-asthmatics) was analyzed using 16S ribosomal RNA gene sequencing. Using extremely randomized trees machine learning models, we assessed the discriminatory ability of gut bacterial features to identify asthmatics from non-asthmatics. Asthma contributed 0.019% to interindividual dissimilarities in intestinal microbiota composition, which was not significant (P = .97). Asthmatics could not be distinguished from non-asthmatics based on individual microbiota composition by an extremely randomized trees classifier model (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve = 0.54). In conclusion, there were no prominent differences in fecal microbiota composition in adult asthmatics when compared to non-asthmatics in an urban, large-sized and ethnically diverse cohort.

Objectives:. Previous studies demonstrated that extensive fluid loading and consequently positive fluid balances during sepsis resuscitation are associated with adverse outcome. Yet, the association between fluid balance and mortality after reversal of shock, that is, during deresuscitation, is largely unappreciated. Our objective was to investigate the effects of fluid balance on mortality in the days after septic shock reversal. Design:. Retrospective observational cohort study. Setting:. ICUs of two university-affiliated hospitals in The Netherlands. Patients:. Adult patients admitted with septic shock followed by shock reversal. Reversal of septic shock was defined based on Sepsis-3 criteria as the first day that serum lactate was less than or equal to 2 mmol/L without vasopressor requirement. Interventions:. None. Measurements and Main Results:. Reversal of septic shock occurred in 636 patients, of whom 20% died in the ICU. Mixed-effects logistic regression modeling, adjusted for possible confounders, showed that fluid balance in the days after reversal of septic shock (until discharge or death) was an independent predictor of ICU mortality: odds ratio 3.18 (1.90–5.32) per 10 mL/kg increase in daily fluid balance. Similar results were found for 30-day, 90-day, hospital, and 1-year mortality: odds ratios 2.09 (1.64–2.67); 1.79 (1.38–2.32); 1.70 (1.40–2.07); and 1.53 (1.17–2.01), respectively. Positive cumulative fluid balances vs. neutral or negative fluid balances on the final day in the ICU were associated with increased ICU, hospital, 30-day, and 90-day mortality: odds ratios 3.46 (2.29–5.23); 3.39 (2.35–4.9); 5.33 (3.51–8.08); and 3.57 (2.49–5.12), respectively. Using restricted cubic splines, we found a dose-response relationship between cumulative fluid balance after shock reversal and ICU mortality. Conclusions:. A higher fluid balance in the days after septic shock reversal was associated with increased mortality. This stresses the importance of implementing restrictive and deresuscitative fluid management strategies after initial hemodynamic resuscitation. Prospective interventional studies are needed to confirm our results.

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0005468.].

BackgroundThe nature and timing of the host immune response during infections remain uncertain and most knowledge is derived from critically ill sepsis patients. We aimed to test the hypothesis that community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) is associated with concurrent immune suppression and systemic inflammation.MethodsBlood was collected from 79 CAP patients within 24 h after hospitalization and 1 month after discharge; 42 age- and sex-matched subjects without acute infection served as controls. Blood leukocytes were stimulated with lipopolysaccharide (LPS) or Klebsiella pneumoniae, and cytokines were measured in supernatants. Fifteen plasma biomarkers reflective of key host response pathways were compared between CAP patients with the strongest immune suppression (lowest 25% blood leukocyte tumor necrosis factor (TNF)-α production in response to LPS) and those with the least immune suppression (highest 25% of LPS-induced TNF-α production).ResultsBlood leukocytes of CAP patients (relative to control subjects) showed a reduced capacity to release TNF-α, interleukin (IL)-1β, IL-6 and IL-10 upon stimulation with LPS or K. pneumoniae, with a concurrently enhanced ability to release the anti-inflammatory mediator IL-1 receptor antagonist, irrespective of the presence of sepsis (18.9% of cases). Low (relative to high) TNF-α producers displayed higher plasma levels of biomarkers reflecting systemic inflammation, neutrophil degranulation, endothelial cell activation, a disturbed vascular barrier function and coagulation activation.ConclusionCAP replicates a common feature of immune suppression in sepsis. The coexistence of immune suppression and hyperinflammation in CAP argues against the theory of two distinct phases during the host response to sepsis.

BackgroundAn increasing body of evidence is indicating that the gut microbiota modulates pulmonary inflammatory responses. This so-called gut-lung axis might be of importance in a whole spectrum of inflammatory pulmonary diseases such as acute respiratory distress syndrome, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and pneumonia. Here, we investigate the effect of antibiotic disruption of gut microbiota on immune responses in the lung after a intranasal challenge with lipopolysaccharide (LPS).Methods/resultsC57Bl/6 mice were treated for two weeks with broad-spectrum antibiotics supplemented to their drinking water. Afterwards, mice and untreated control mice were inoculated intranasally with LPS. Mice were sacrificed 2 and 6 hours post-challenge, after which bronchoalveolar lavage fluid (BALF) and lung tissues were taken. Gut microbiota analysis showed that antibiotic-treated mice had a pronounced reduction in numbers and diversity of bacteria. A modest, but time consistent, significant increase of interleukin (IL)-6 release was seen in BALF of antibiotic treated mice. Release of tumor necrosis factor alpha (TNFα), however, was not statistically different between groups.ConclusionAntibiotic induced microbiota disruption is associated with alterations in host responses during LPS-induced lung inflammation. Further studies are required to determine the clinical relevance of the gut-lung axis in pulmonary infection and inflammation.

The understanding of the gut microbiome in health and disease has shown tremendous progress in the last decade. Shaped and balanced throughout life, the gut microbiome is intricately related to the local and systemic immune system and a multitude of mechanisms through which the gut microbiome contributes to the host’s defense against pathogens have been revealed. Similarly, a plethora of negative consequences, such as superinfections and an increased rate of hospital re-admissions, have been identified when the gut microbiome is disturbed by disease or by the iatrogenic effects of antibiotic treatment and other interventions. In this review, we describe the role that probiotics may play in the intensive care unit (ICU). We discuss what is known about the gut microbiome of the critically ill, and the concept of probiotic intervention to positively modulate the gut microbiome. We summarize the evidence derived from randomized clinical trials in this context, with a focus on the prevention of ventilator-associated pneumonia. Finally, we consider what lessons we can learn in terms of the current challenges, efficacy and safety of probiotics in the ICU and what we may expect from the future. Throughout the review, we highlight studies that have provided conceptual advances to the field or have revealed a specific mechanism; this narrative review is not intended as a comprehensive summary of the literature.

Abstract Background Pre-clinical animal studies precede the majority of clinical trials. While the clinical definitions of sepsis and recommended treatments are regularly updated, a systematic review of pre-clinical models of sepsis has not been done and clear modeling guidelines are lacking. Objective To address this deficit, a Wiggers-Bernard Conference on pre-clinical sepsis modeling was held in Vienna in May 2017. The goal of the conference was to identify limitations of pre-clinical sepsis models and to propose a set of guidelines, defined as the “Minimum Quality Threshold in Pre-Clinical Sepsis Studies” (MQTiPSS), to enhance translational value of these models. Methods A total of 31 experts from 13 countries participated and were divided into 6 thematic working groups (WG): (1) study design, (2) humane modeling, (3) infection types, (4) organ failure/dysfunction, (5) fluid resuscitation, and (6) antimicrobial therapy endpoints. As basis for the MQTiPSS discussions, the participants conducted a literature review of the 260 most highly cited scientific articles on sepsis models (2002–2013). Results Overall, the participants reached consensus on 29 points; 20 at “recommendation” (R) and 9 at “consideration” (C) strength. This executive summary provides a synopsis of the MQTiPSS consensus (Tables 1, 2, and 3). Detailed commentaries to all Rs and Cs are simultaneously published in three separate full-length papers. Conclusions We believe that these recommendations and considerations will serve to bring a level of standardization to pre-clinical models of sepsis and ultimately improve translation of pre-clinical findings. These guideline points are proposed as “best practices” for animal models of sepsis that should be implemented. In order to encourage its wide dissemination, this article is freely accessible in Shock, Infection and Intensive Care Medicine Experimental.

Abstract This article is one of ten reviews selected from the Annual Update in Intensive Care and Emergency Medicine 2018. Other selected articles can be found online at https://www.biomedcentral.com/collections/annualupdate2018. Further information about the Annual Update in Intensive Care and Emergency Medicine is available from http://www.springer.com/series/8901.

BackgroundThe soil-dwelling bacillus Burkholderia pseudomallei is the etiological-agent of the neglected and life-threatening emerging infection melioidosis. The distribution of B. pseudomallei in West Africa is unknown. In the present study we aimed to determine whether B. pseudomallei and B. thailandensis are present in the environment of central Sierra Leone.Methodology/principal findingsIn June-July 2017, we conducted an environmental surveillance study-designed in accordance with existing consensus guidelines-in central Sierra Leone. A total of 1,000 soil samples (100 per site) were collected and cultured. B. pseudomallei was not identified in the soil, but we identified seven novel B. thailandensis sequence types with multi-locus sequence typing (MLST) and 16S rRNA gene sequence analyses.Conclusions/significanceThe presence of B. pseudomallei was not demonstrated, however, multiple novel B. thailandensis sequence types were identified. More environmental and sequencing studies are needed to further understand the genetic diversity, evolution and virulence of these emerging organisms.