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Ocean heat content (OHC) is one of the most relevant metrics tracking the current global heating. Therefore, simulated OHC time series are a cornerstone for assessing the scientific performance of Earth system models and global climate models. Here we present a detailed analysis of OHC change in simulations of the historical climate (1850–2014) performed with two pairs of CMIP6 models: U.K. Earth System Model 1 (UKESM1.0) and HadGEM3-GC3.1-LL, and CNRM-ESM2-1 and CNRM-CM6-1. The small number of models enables us to analyze OHC change globally and for individual ocean basins, making use of a novel ensemble of observational products. For the top 700 m of the global ocean, the two CNRM models reproduce the observed OHC change since the 1960s closely. The two U.K. models (UKESM1.0-LL and HadGEM3-GC3.1-LL) compensate a lack of warming in the 0–700 m layer in the 1970s and 1980s with warming below 2000 m. The observed warming between 700 and 2000 m is substantially underestimated by all models. An increased relevance for ocean heat uptake in the Atlantic after 1991—suggested by observations—is picked up by the U.K. models but less so by the CNRM models, probably related to an AMOC strengthening in the U.K. models. The regional ocean heat uptake characteristics differ even though all four models share the same ocean component (NEMO ORCA1). Differences in the simulated global, full-depth OHC time series can be attributed to differences in the model’s total effective radiative forcing.

Potential temperature/salinity (theta/S) characteristics of water masses in the ocean interior can often be traced back over long distances to their source regions. In practice, understanding how water masses are altered by interior mixing and stirring requires a detailed understanding of the interior pathways linking fluid parcels to their source regions. So far, oceanographers have generally assumed that these pathways are strongly constrained to take place on potential density surfaces of some kind, of which the most commonly employed have been the Jackett and McDougall neutral density variable and sigma2, the potential density referenced to 2000 dbar. Because sigma2 is a somewhat ad-hoc and artificial construct, the more physically-based neutral density variable has been widely assumed to represent the most accurate variable to describe interior pathways, but the analysis of van Sebille et al. (2011) intriguingly suggests otherwise. In order to shed light on the issue, this work hypothesizes that if neutral surfaces were optimal to describe lateral stirring in the ocean, they should be the surfaces along which the observed spread in potential temperature and salinity anomalies should be minimum, since lateral stirring is about 7 orders of magnitude more vigorous in the lateral directions than perpendicular to them. Surprisingly, it is found that this is actually never the case in ocean regions with positive density ratios, traditionally associated with double-diffusive regimes. In those regions, indeed, it is always possible to find material surfaces, not necessarily definable in terms of potential density, along which the spread is reduced for both potential temperature and salinity compared to that over neutral surfaces. In doubly-stable regions, on the other hand, it is not possible to find material variables able to simultaneously reduce both the spread in potential temperature and salinity compared to that over neutral surfaces. Given the widespread nature of double-diffusive regimes in the world oceans, especially in the Atlantic Ocean, these results have strong implications for the ability of ocean climate models to accurately simulate water masses, as it is unclear how to maintain water masses properties by mixing vigorously along directions along which the spread in theta/S is far from its minimum.

A new climate model, HadGEM3 N96ORCA1, is presented that is part of the GC3.1 configuration of HadGEM3. N96ORCA1 has a horizontal resolution of ~135 km in the atmosphere and 1° in the ocean and requires an order of magnitude less computing power than its medium‐resolution counterpart, N216ORCA025, while retaining a high degree of performance traceability. Scientific performance is compared to both observations and the N216ORCA025 model. N96ORCA1 reproduces observed climate mean and variability almost as well as N216ORCA025. Patterns of biases are similar across the two models. In the northwest Atlantic, N96ORCA1 shows a cold surface bias of up to 6 K, typical of ocean models of this resolution. The strength of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (16 to 17 Sv) matches observations. In the Southern Ocean, a warm surface bias (up to 2 K) is smaller than in N216ORCA025 and linked to improved ocean circulation. Model El Niño/Southern Oscillation and Atlantic Multidecadal Variability are close to observations. Both the cold bias in the Northern Hemisphere (N96ORCA1) and the warm bias in the Southern Hemisphere (N216ORCA025) develop in the first few decades of the simulations. As in many comparable climate models, simulated interhemispheric gradients of top‐of‐atmosphere radiation are larger than observations suggest, with contributions from both hemispheres. HadGEM3 GC3.1 N96ORCA1 constitutes the physical core of the UK Earth System Model (UKESM1) and will be used extensively in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 (CMIP6), both as part of the UK Earth System Model and as a stand‐alone coupled climate model.

About 90% of the anthropogenic increase in heat stored in the climate system is found the oceans. Therefore it is relevant to understand the details of ocean heat uptake. Here we present a detailed, process-based analysis of ocean heat uptake (OHU) processes in HiGEM1.2, an atmosphere-ocean general circulation model (AOGCM) with an eddy-permitting ocean component of 1/3 degree resolution. Similarly to various other models, HiGEM1.2 shows that the global heat budget is dominated by a downward advection of heat compensated by upward isopycnal diffusion. Only in\ud the upper tropical ocean do we find the classical balance between downward diapycnal diffusion and upward advection of heat. The upward isopycnal diffusion of heat is located mostly in the Southern Ocean, which thus dominates the global heat budget.\ud We compare the responses to a 4xCO2 forcing and an enhancement of the windstress forcing in the Southern Ocean. This highlights the importance of regional processes for the global ocean heat uptake. These are mainly surface fluxes and convection in the high latitudes, and advection in the Southern Ocean mid-latitudes. Changes in diffusion are less important. \ud In line with the CMIP5 models, HiGEM1.2 shows a band of strong OHU in the mid-latitude Southern Ocean in the 4xCO2 run, which is mostly advective. By contrast, in the high-latitude Southern Ocean regions it is the suppression of convection that leads to OHU. In the enhanced windstress run, convection is strengthened at high Southern latitudes, leading to heat loss, while the magnitude of the OHU in the Southern mid-latitudes is very similar to the 4xCO2 results. Remarkably, there is only very small global OHU in the enhanced windstress run. The wind stress forcing just leads to a redistribution of heat. \ud We relate the ocean changes at high southern latitudes to the effect of climate change on the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC). It weakens in the 4xCO2 run and strengthens in the wind stress run. The weakening is due to a narrowing of the ACC, caused by an expansion of the Weddell Gyre, and a flattening of the isopycnals, which are explained by a combination of the wind stress forcing and increased precipitation.

The classic vertical advection-diffusion (VAD) balance is a central concept in studying the ocean heat budget, in particular in simple climate models (SCMs). Here we present a new framework to calibrate the parameters of the VAD equation to the vertical ocean heat balance of two fully-coupled climate models that is traceable to the models’ circulation as well as to vertical mixing and diffusion processes. Based on temperature diagnostics, we\ud derive an effective vertical velocity w∗ and turbulent diffusivity k∗ for each individual physical process. In steady-state, we find that the residual vertical velocity and diffusivity change sign in mid-depth, highlighting the different regional contributions of isopycnal and diapycnal diffusion in balancing the models’ residual advection and vertical mixing. We quantify the impacts of the time-evolution of the effective quantities under a transient 1%CO2 simulation and make the link to the parameters of currently employed SCMs.

MCCIP Science Review 2013, 49-59