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This paper uses Johansen’s co-integration analysis and a vector error-correction model to investigate the relationship between economic growth, export growth, export instability and gross fixed capital formation (investment) in India during the period 1971- 2005. The empirical results suggest that there exists a unique long-run relationship among these variables and the Granger causal flow is unidirectional from real exports to real GDP. For example, ceteris paribus, a 1% increase in exports raises GDP by an estimated 0.42% in the long run. The short term dynamic behavior of income growth function was investigated by estimating an error correction model in which the error correction term was found to be correctly signed and statistically significant. The policy implication is that government should continue to pursue export oriented measures if India is to secure greater levels of income and more rapid and sustained economic growth in the coming years.

The days following the discovery of BSE in Canada were characterized by considerable uncertainty for both policy makers and industry stakeholders. This paper develops eight criteria for economic systems models that would provide information on the impacts of border closures and the effects of programs designed to alleviate some of the financial strain on industry stakeholders. The eight criteria provide a framework to evaluate two economic models used extensively by policy makers in Canada to provide policy guidance in addition to a survey of published economics literature related to the Canadian beef industry prior to the discovery of the BSE case in May 2003. The results suggest a need to improve the combination of knowledge and modeling skills and techniques before another tragedy strikes the agricultural industry in Canada. Les jours qui ont suivi la decouverte d'un cas d'ESB au Canada ont seme beaucoup d'incertitude chez les decideurs et les acteurs de l'industrie. Dans la presente etude, nous avons elabore huit criteres pour des modeles de systemes economiques qui fourniraient de l'information sur les repercussions de la fermeture des frontieres et sur les effets des programmes visant a attenuer une partie des contraintes financieres auxquelles sont confrontes les acteurs de l'industrie. Les huit criteres offrent un cadre pour evaluer deux modeles economiques que les decideurs au Canada utilisent frequemment pour determiner une orientation politique, en plus d'un tour d'horizon de la litterature economique sur l'industrie bovine au Canada avant la decouverte du premier cas d'ESB en mai 2003. Les resultats ont montre la necessite d'ameliorer la combinaison connaissances, competences et techniques de modelisation avant qu'une autre tragedie ne frappe l'industrie agricole canadienne.

Empirical evidence on export-led growth hypothesis is inconclusive and mixed. This paper uses time series econometric techniques to re-investigate the relationship between exports and economic growth in India during the period 1971-2005. The insertion of three additional relevant variables omitted in previous studies help to clarify the conflicting results from earlier studies on the Indian economy. The empirical results suggest that there exists a unique long-run relationship between exports, export instability, imports, investment, terms of trade and gross domestic product. For example, ceteris paribus a 10 per cent increase in the exports raises GDP by an estimated 2.76 per cent in the long run. The short-term dynamic behaviour of income growth function has been investigated by estimating an error correction model in which the error correction term has been found to be correctly signed and statistically significant. However, there is no strong evidence for short-run causality flowing from export growth to economic growth. JEL classification: C32, F10, O11