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Abstract Uncertainty remains regarding the role of diet in colorectal cancer development. We examined associations of 97 dietary factors with colorectal cancer risk in 542,778 Million Women Study participants (12,251 incident cases over 16.6 years), and conducted a targeted genetic analysis in the ColoRectal Transdisciplinary Study, Colon Cancer Family Registry, and Genetics and Epidemiology of Colorectal Cancer Consortium (GECCO). Alcohol (relative risk per 20 g/day=1.15, 95% confidence interval 1.09-1.20) and calcium (per 300 mg/day=0.83, 0.77–0.89) intakes had the strongest associations, followed by six dairy-related factors associated with calcium. We showed a positive association with red and processed meat intake and weaker inverse associations with breakfast cereal, fruit, wholegrains, carbohydrates, fibre, total sugars, folate, and vitamin C. Genetically predicted milk consumption was inversely associated with risk of colorectal, colon, and rectal cancers. We conclude that dairy products help protect against colorectal cancer, and that this is driven largely or wholly by calcium.

Abstract We have previously shown that body mass index attenuates a positive association of platelet count (PLT) and inverse of mean platelet volume (MPV) with lung cancer risk in men. It is unclear whether fat mass, lean mass, or liver function tests (LFTs) show similar attenuations. Using bioelectrical impedance measurements (UK Biobank cohort) and multivariable Cox proportional hazards models, we examined the associations of allometric fat-mass index (AFI, fat mass adjusted for height), allometric lean-mass index (ALI, fat-free mass adjusted for height and fat mass), and LFTs with lung cancer risk and their multiplicative and additive interactions with platelet parameters. Based on 1573 lung cancer cases in men and 1473 in women with body composition measurements (1541 in men; 1428 in women with biomarker measurements), AFI in women, ALI in both sexes, alanine aminotransferase (ALT) and total bilirubin in men were inversely associated, while gamma-glutamyl transferase in men and alkaline phosphatase in both sexes were positively associated with lung cancer risk. Only AFI and ALT interacted inversely with PLT and positively with MPV in men. The attenuation of the associations of platelet parameters with lung cancer risk by high-AFI and high-ALT in men suggests that adiposity-related factors hinder lung-cancer-related platelet associations.

Abstract Recent epidemiological studies have suggested a positive association between ultra-processed food consumption and breast cancer risk, although some studies also reported no association. Furthermore, the evidence regarding the associations between intake of food with lower degrees of processing and breast cancer risk is limited. Thus, we investigated the associations between dietary intake by degree of food processing and breast cancer risk, overall and by breast cancer subtypes in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) study. Dietary intake of EPIC participants was assessed via questionnaires at baseline. More than 11,000 food ingredients were classified into four groups of food processing levels using the NOVA classification system: unprocessed/minimally processed (NOVA 1), culinary ingredients (NOVA 2), processed (NOVA 3) and ultra-processed (NOVA 4). Cox proportional hazards models were used to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) of breast cancer per standard deviation increase in daily consumption (grams) of foods from each NOVA group. The current analysis included 14,933 breast cancer cases, diagnosed among the 318,686 EPIC female participants, (median follow-up of 14.9 years). No associations were found between breast cancer risk and the level of dietary intake from NOVA 1 [HR per 1 SD=0.99 (95% CI 0.97 – 1.01)], NOVA 2 [HR per 1 SD =1.01 (95% CI 0.98 – 1.03)] and NOVA 4 [HR per 1 SD =1.01 (95% CI 0.99 – 1.03)] foods. However, a positive association was found between NOVA 3 and breast cancer risk [HR per 1 SD =1.05 (95% CI 1.03 – 1.07)] which became non-significant after adjustment for alcohol intake [HR per 1 SD =1.01 (95% CI 0.98 – 1.05)] or when beer and wine were excluded from this group [HR per 1 SD =0.99 (95% CI 0.97 – 1.01)]. The associations did not differ by breast cancer subtype, menopausal status or body mass index. Findings from this large-scale prospective study suggest that the positive association between processed food intake and breast cancer risk was likely driven by alcoholic beverage consumption. Graphical Abstract

Abstract Background Research on calcium intake as well as variants in the calcium sensor receptor (CaSR) gene and their interaction in relation to CRC survival is still limited. Methods Data from 18,952 CRC patients, were included. Associations between primarily pre-diagnostic dietary (n = 13.085), supplemental (n = 11,837), total calcium intake (n = 5970) as well as 325 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) of the CaSR gene (n = 15,734) in relation to CRC-specific and all-cause mortality were assessed using Cox proportional hazard models. Also interactions between calcium intake and variants in the CaSR gene were assessed. Results During a median follow-up of 4.8 years (IQR 2.4–8.4), 6801 deaths occurred, of which 4194 related to CRC. For all-cause mortality, no associations were observed for the highest compared to the lowest sex- and study-specific quartile of dietary (HR 1.00, 95%CI 0.92–1.09), supplemental (HR 0.97, 95%CI 0.89–1.06) and total calcium intake (HR 0.99, 95%CI 0.88–1.11). No associations with CRC-specific mortality were observed either. Interactions were observed between supplemental calcium intake and several SNPs of the CaSR gene. Conclusion Calcium intake was not associated with all-cause or CRC-specific mortality in CRC patients. The association between supplemental calcium intake and all-cause and CRC-specific mortality may be modified by genetic variants in the CaSR gene.

Summary: Background: Previous prediction models for adiposity gain have not yet achieved sufficient predictive ability for clinical relevance. We investigated whether traditional and genetic factors accurately predict adiposity gain. Methods: A 5-year gain of ≥5% in body mass index (BMI) and waist-to-hip ratio (WHR) from baseline were predicted in mid-late adulthood individuals (median of 55 years old at baseline). Proportional hazards models were fitted in 245,699 participants from the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) cohort to identify robust environmental predictors. Polygenic risk scores (PRS) of 5 proxies of adiposity [BMI, WHR, and three body shape phenotypes (PCs)] were computed using genetic weights from an independent cohort (UK Biobank). Environmental and genetic models were validated in 29,953 EPIC participants. Findings: Environmental models presented a remarkable predictive ability (AUCBMI: 0.69, 95% CI: 0.68–0.70; AUCWHR: 0.75, 95% CI: 0.74–0.77). The genetic geographic distribution for WHR and PC1 (overall adiposity) showed higher predisposition in North than South Europe. Predictive ability of PRSs was null (AUC: ∼0.52) and did not improve when combined with environmental models. However, PRSs of BMI and PC1 showed some prediction ability for BMI gain from self-reported BMI at 20 years old to baseline observation (early adulthood) (AUC: 0.60–0.62). Interpretation: Our study indicates that environmental models to discriminate European individuals at higher risk of adiposity gain can be integrated in standard prevention protocols. PRSs may play a robust role in predicting adiposity gain at early rather than mid-late adulthood suggesting a more important role of genetic factors in this life period. Funding: French National Cancer Institute (INCA_N°2019-176) 1220, German Research Foundation (BA 5459/2-1), Instituto de Salud Carlos III (Miguel Servet Program CP21/00058).

Summary: Background: Elevated body mass index (BMI) ≥25 kg/m2 is a major preventable cause of cancer. A single BMI measure does not capture the degree and duration of exposure to excess BMI. We investigate associations between adulthood overweight-years, incorporating exposure time to BMI ≥25 kg/m2, and cancer incidence, and compare this with single BMI. Methods: In this cohort study and individual participant data meta-analysis, we obtained data from the ABACus 2 Consortium, consisting of four US cohorts: Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) study (1987–2015), Women's Health Initiative (WHI; 1991 to 2005 [main study], to 2010 [Extension 1], and to 2020 [Extension 2]), Prostate, Lung, Colorectal, Ovarian Cancer Screening (PLCO) Trial (1993–2009), NIH-AARP Diet and Health Study (1996–2011), and one European cohort, the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC; participants enrolled in 1990 and administrative censoring was centre-specific). Participants with at least 3 BMI measurements and complete cancer follow-up data were included. We calculated overweight-years: degree of overweight (BMI ≥25 kg/m2) multiplied by the duration of overweight (years). Using random effects two-stage individual participant data meta-analyses, associations between cancer and overweight-years, single BMI, cumulative overweight degree and duration, measured at the same time and captured over a median of 41 years in men and 39 years in women, were evaluated with Cox proportional hazards models. Models were age-adjusted or multivariable (MV) adjusted for baseline age, ethnicity, alcohol, smoking and hormone replacement therapy (HRT). Harrell's C-statistic of metrics were compared. This study is registered at PROSPERO, CRD42021238270. Findings: 720,210 participants, including 312,132 men and 408,078 women, were followed up for cancer incidence over a median 9.85 years (interquartile range (IQR) 8.03, 11.67) in men and 10.80 years (IQR 6.05, 15.55) in women. 12,959 men (4.15%) and 36,509 women (8.95%) were diagnosed with obesity-related cancer. Hazard ratios for obesity-related cancers in men, per 1 standard deviation (SD) overweight-years were 1.15 (95% CI: 1.14, 1.16, I2: 0) age-adjusted and 1.15 (95% CI: 1.13, 1.17, I2: 0%) MV-adjusted and per 1SD increment in single BMI were 1.17 (95% CI: 1.16, 1.18, I2: 0) age-adjusted and 1.16 (95% CI: 1.15, 1.18, I2: 0%) MV-adjusted. The HR for overweight-years in women per 1 SD increment was 1.08 (95% CI: 1.04, 1.13, I2: 82%) age-adjusted and 1.08 (95% CI: 1.04, 1.13, I2: 83%) MV-adjusted and per 1SD increment in single BMI was 1.10 (95% CI: 1.07, 1.14, I2: 72%) age-adjusted and 1.11 (95% CI: 1.07, 1.15, I2: 79%) MV-adjusted. C-statistics for overweight-years and single BMI for obesity-related cancers were 0.612 (95% CI: 0.578, 0.646) and 0.611 (95% CI: 0.578, 0.644) respectively for men and 0.566 (95% CI: 0.534, 0.598) and 0.573 (95% CI: 0.546, 0.600) for women. Interpretation: Adulthood degree and duration of excess BMI were associated with cancer risk. Both factors should be considered in cancer prevention strategies and policies. This study only focused on adulthood exposure to excess BMI, so the minimal differences in the predictive performance between adiposity metrics may be due to underestimation of cumulative excess BMI exposure. Funding: Cancer Research UK, the Manchester NIHR Biomedical Research Centre, the National Cancer Institute, the National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute, National Institutes of Health, Department of Health and Human Services, U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, the Intramural Research Program of the National Cancer Institute, the International Agency for Research on Cancer, Imperial College London, European Commission (DG-SANCO), the Danish Cancer Society, Ligue Contre le Cancer, Institut Gustave-Roussy, Mutuelle Générale de l'Education Nationale, Institut National de la Santé et de la Recherche Médicale, Deutsche Krebshilfe, Deutsches Krebsforschungszentrum, German Federal Ministry of Education and Research, the Hellenic Health Foundation, Associazione Italiana per la Ricerca sul Cancro-AIRC-Italy and National Research Council, Dutch Ministry of Public Health, Welfare, and Sports, Netherlands Cancer Registry, LK Research Funds, Dutch Prevention Funds, Dutch Zorg Onderzoek Nederland, World Cancer Research Fund, Statistics Netherlands, Health Research Fund, Instituto de Salud Carlos III, regional Spanish governments of Andalucía, Asturias, Basque Country, Murcia, and Navarra, the Catalan Institute of Oncology, Swedish Cancer Society, Swedish Scientific Council, and Region Skåne and Region Västerbotten, and the Medical Research Council.

Abstract The healthy lifestyle index (HLI), defined as the unweighted sum of individual lifestyle components, was used to investigate the combined role of lifestyle factors on health-related outcomes. We introduced weighted outcome-specific versions of the HLI, where individual lifestyle components were weighted according to their associations with disease outcomes. Within the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC), we examined the association between the standard and the outcome-specific HLIs and the risk of T2D, CVD, cancer, and all-cause premature mortality. Estimates of the hazard ratios (HRs), the Harrell’s C-index and the population attributable fractions (PAFs) were compared. For T2D, the HR for 1-SD increase of the standard and T2D-specific HLI were 0.66 (95% CI: 0.64, 0.67) and 0.43 (0.42, 0.44), respectively, and the C-index were 0.63 (0.62, 0.64) and 0.72 (0.72, 0.73). Similar, yet less pronounced differences in HR and C-index were observed for standard and outcome-specific estimates for cancer, CVD and all-cause mortality. PAF estimates for mortality before age 80 were 57% (55%, 58%) and 33% (32%, 34%) for standard and mortality-specific HLI, respectively. The use of outcome-specific HLI could improve the assessment of the role of lifestyle factors on disease outcomes, thus enhancing the definition of public health recommendations.

Abstract Background Circulating total insulin-like growth factor-I (IGF-I) is an established risk factor for prostate cancer. However, only a small proportion of circulating IGF-I is free or readily dissociable from IGF-binding proteins (its bioavailable form), and few studies have investigated the association of circulating free IGF-I with prostate cancer risk. Methods We analyzed data from 767 prostate cancer cases and 767 matched controls nested within the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition cohort, with an average of 14-years (interquartile range = 2.9) follow-up. Matching variables were study center, length of follow-up, age, and time of day and fasting duration at blood collection. Circulating free IGF-I concentration was measured in serum samples collected at recruitment visit (mean age 55 years old; standard deviation = 7.1) using an enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA). Conditional logistic regressions were performed to examine the associations of free IGF-I with risk of prostate cancer overall and subdivided by time to diagnosis (≤ 14 and > 14 years), and tumor characteristics. Results Circulating free IGF-I concentrations (in fourths and as a continuous variable) were not associated with prostate cancer risk overall (odds ratio [OR] = 1.00 per 0.1 nmol/L increment, 95% CI: 0.99, 1.02) or by time to diagnosis, or with prostate cancer subtypes, including tumor stage and histological grade. Conclusions Estimated circulating free IGF-I was not associated with prostate cancer risk. Further research may consider other assay methods that estimate bioavailable IGF-I to provide more insight into the well-substantiated association between circulating total IGF-I and subsequent prostate cancer risk.

Abstract Background Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) and metabolic syndrome (MetS) are implicated in the aetiology of non-communicable diseases. Our study aimed to evaluate associations between NAFLD and MetS with overall and cause-specific mortality. Methods We used dietary, lifestyle, anthropometric and metabolic biomarker data from a random subsample of 15,784 EPIC cohort participants. NAFLD was assessed using the fatty liver index (FLI) and MetS using the revised definition. Indices for metabolic dysfunction–associated fatty liver disease (MAFLD) were calculated. The individual associations of these indices with overall and cause-specific mortality were assessed using multivariable Cox proportional hazards models to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (95%CIs). As a subobjective, risk associations with adaptations of new classifications of metabolic dysfunction–associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD) and metabolic and alcohol-related liver disease (MetALD) were also assessed. Results Among the 15,784 sub-cohort participants, a total of 1997 deaths occurred (835 due to cancer, 520 to CVD, 642 to other causes) over a median 15.6 (IQR, 12.3–17.1) years of follow-up. Compared to an FLI

Summary: Background: Ultra-processed food (UPF) consumption has been linked with higher risk of mortality. This multi-centre study investigated associations between food intake by degree of processing, using the Nova classification, and all-cause and cause-specific mortality. Methods: This study analyzed data from the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition. All-cause mortality and cause-specific mortality due to cancer, circulatory diseases, digestive diseases, Parkinson’s disease, and Alzheimer’s disease served as endpoints. Hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% CIs were estimated using multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression models. Substitution analyses were also performed. Findings: Overall, 428,728 (71.7% female) participants were included in the analysis and 40,016 deaths were documented after 15.9 years of follow-up. UPFs (in percentage grams per day [g/d]) were positively associated with all-cause mortality (HRs per 1-SD: 1.04; 95% CI: 1.02,1.05), as well as mortality from circulatory diseases (1.09; 95% CI: 1.07,1.12), cerebrovascular disease (1.11; 95% CI: 1.05,1.17), ischemic heart disease (1.10; 95% CI: 1.06,1.15), digestive diseases (1.12; 95% CI: 1.05,1.20), and Parkinson’s disease (1.23; 95% CI: 1.06,1.42). No associations were found between UPFs and mortality from cancer or Alzheimer’s disease. Replacing processed and UPFs with unprocessed/minimally processed foods was associated with lower mortality risk. Interpretation: In this pan-European analysis, higher UPF consumption was associated with greater mortality from circulatory diseases, digestive diseases, and Parkinson’s disease. The results support growing evidence that higher consumption of UPFs and lower consumption of unprocessed foods may have a negative impact on health. Funding: l’Institut National du Cancer, and World Cancer Research Fund International.

Summary: Background: Nutri-Score is a scientifically validated 5-color front-of-pack nutrition label reflecting the nutrient profile of foods. It has been implemented in several European countries on a voluntary basis, pending the revision of the European labeling regulation. Hence, scientific evidence is needed regarding the ability of the nutrient profile underlying the Nutri-Score (uNS-NPS, 2023-updated version) to characterize healthier foods. Our objective was therefore to study the prospective association between the nutritional quality of diet characterized by the uNS-NPS and the risk of cardiovascular diseases in a large European population. Methods: Our analyses included 345,533 participants from the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition study (EPIC, 1992–2010, 7 European countries). Food intakes were assessed at baseline using country-specific dietary questionnaires. The uNS-NPS was calculated as a continuous scale for each food, based on its 100 g content of energy, sugars, saturated fatty acids, salt, fibre, and protein and percentage content of fruit, vegetables, and pulses. A dietary index was derived at the individual level (uNS-NPS DI: energy-weighted mean of uNS-NPS scores of all foods consumed by a participant). Cardiovascular events during follow-up were retrieved using country-specific methods (self-report, registry data). Multi-adjusted Cox models were computed. Findings: Overall, 16,214 first cardiovascular events were reported (median follow-up: 12.3 years; 4,103,133 person-years). The consumption of foods with a higher uNS-NPS score (reflecting a lower overall nutritional quality of diet) was associated with higher risks of total cardiovascular events (Hazards Ratio (HR) for an increment of 1 standard deviation: 1.03 (95% Confidence Interval 1.01–1.05)), especially myocardial infarction (HR = 1.03 (1.01–1.07)), and stroke (HR = 1.04 (1.01–1.07)). Interpretation: In this large prospective study among European adults, a higher risk of cardiovascular diseases (total and several subtypes) was observed in individuals consuming a diet with a lower nutritional value, as graded by the uNS-NPS score. This brings new evidence on the relevance of the updated nutrient profile underlying the Nutri-Score to characterize foods with a healthier nutrient profile. Funding: EPIC-CVD was supported by EU FP7, ERC, UK MRC, British Heart Foundation, and UK NIHR.

Summary: Background: It is unknown whether the association between ultra-processed food (UPF) intake and type 2 diabetes mellitus differs from other degrees of food processing. We examined the association between degree of food processing and incident type 2 diabetes mellitus. Methods: This was a prospective cohort analysis of the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC). Dietary intake was assessed at baseline using dietary questionnaires and classified according to the Nova classification into unprocessed/minimally processed food (MPF), processed culinary ingredients (PCI), processed food (PF) and UPF. Type 2 diabetes mellitus cases were verified through multiple methods. Cox regression and statistical substitution analysis was used to estimate associations between MPF + PCI, PF and UPF intake and incident type 2 diabetes mellitus. To investigate heterogeneity in the association between UPF and incident type 2 diabetes mellitus, UPF sub-group analysis was conducted. Different reference groups were used in each analysis. Findings: Over an average 10.9 years follow-up of 311,892 individuals, 14,236 type 2 diabetes mellitus cases were identified. Each 10% increment of total daily food intake from UPF (%g/day) was associated with 17% (95% confidence interval (95%CI): 1.14–1.19) higher incident type 2 diabetes mellitus. Each 10% increment in MPF + PCI or PF intake was associated with lower incident type 2 diabetes mellitus (MPF + PCI hazard ratio: 0.94 (95%CI: 0.92–0.96); PF hazard ratio: 0.92 (95%CI: 0.89–0.95)). Replacing UPF with MPF + PCI or PF was associated with lower incident type 2 diabetes mellitus. However, heterogeneity was observed across UPF sub-groups, with breads, biscuits and breakfast cereals, sweets and desserts, and plant-based alternatives associated with lower incident type 2 diabetes mellitus. Interpretation: These findings support recommendations to focus on reducing intake of specific UPF for lowering type 2 diabetes mellitus risk. Funding: International Agency for Research on Cancer.

Summary: Background: Inflammation and immune dysregulation are hypothesized contributors to endometrial carcinogenesis; however, the precise underlying mechanisms remain unclear. Methods: We measured pre-diagnostically 152 plasma protein biomarkers in 624 endometrial cancer case-control pairs nested within the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) cohort. Odds ratios (ORs) were estimated using conditional logistic regression, accounting for confounding and multiple comparisons. Proteins considered as associated with endometrial cancer risk were further tested in a two-sample Mendelian randomization (MR) analysis using summary data from the UK Biobank (n = 52,363) and the Endometrial Cancer Association Consortium (12,270 cases and 46,126 controls). Findings: In the EPIC nested case-control study, IL-6 [OR per NPX (doubling of concentration) = 1.28 (95% confidence interval (CI) 1.03–1.57)], HGF [1.48 (1.06–2.07)], PIK3AP1 [1.22 (1.00–1.50)] and CLEC4G [1.52 (1.00–2.32)] were positively associated; HSD11B1 [0.67 (0.49–0.91)], SCF [0.68 (0.49–0.94)], and CCL25 [0.80 (0.65–0.99)] were inversely associated with endometrial cancer risk; all estimates had multiple comparisons adjusted P-value > 0.05. In complementary MR analysis, IL-6 [OR per inverse-rank normalized NPX = 1.19 (95% CI 1.04–1.36)] and HSD11B1 [0.91 (0.84–0.99)] were associated with endometrial cancer risk. Interpretation: Altered IL-6 signalling and reduced glucocorticoid activity via HSD11B1 might play important roles in endometrial carcinogenesis. Funding: Funding for IIG_FULL_2021_008 was obtained from Wereld Kanker Onderzoek Fonds (WKOF), as part of the World Cancer Research Fund International grant programme; Funding for INCA_15849 was obtained from Institut National du Cancer (INCa).

Abstract Background Healthy lifestyles are inversely associated with the risk of noncommunicable diseases, which are leading causes of death. However, few studies have used longitudinal data to assess the impact of changing lifestyle behaviours on all-cause and cancer mortality. Methods Within the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) cohort, lifestyle profiles of 308,497 cancer-free adults (71% female) aged 35–70 years at recruitment across nine countries were assessed with baseline and follow-up questionnaires administered on average of 7 years apart. A healthy lifestyle index (HLI), assessed at two time points, combined information on smoking status, alcohol intake, body mass index, and physical activity, and ranged from 0 to 16 units. A change score was calculated as the difference between HLI at baseline and follow-up. Associations between HLI change and all-cause and cancer mortality were modelled with Cox regression, and the impact of changing HLI on accelerating mortality rate was estimated by rate advancement periods (RAP, in years). Results After the follow-up questionnaire, participants were followed for an average of 9.9 years, with 21,696 deaths (8407 cancer deaths) documented. Compared to participants whose HLIs remained stable (within one unit), improving HLI by more than one unit was inversely associated with all-cause and cancer mortality (hazard ratio [HR]: 0.84; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.81, 0.88; and HR: 0.87; 95% CI: 0.82, 0.92; respectively), while worsening HLI by more than one unit was associated with an increase in mortality (all-cause mortality HR: 1.26; 95% CI: 1.20, 1.33; cancer mortality HR: 1.19; 95% CI: 1.09, 1.29). Participants who worsened HLI by more than one advanced their risk of death by 1.62 (1.44, 1.96) years, while participants who improved HLI by the same amount delayed their risk of death by 1.19 (0.65, 2.32) years, compared to those with stable HLI. Conclusions Making healthier lifestyle changes during adulthood was inversely associated with all-cause and cancer mortality and delayed risk of death. Conversely, making unhealthier lifestyle changes was positively associated with mortality and an accelerated risk of death.

Abstract Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have identified more than 200 common genetic variants independently associated with colorectal cancer (CRC) risk, but the causal variants and target genes are mostly unknown. We sought to fine-map all known CRC risk loci using GWAS data from 100,204 cases and 154,587 controls of East Asian and European ancestry. Our stepwise conditional analyses revealed 238 independent association signals of CRC risk, each with a set of credible causal variants (CCVs), of which 28 signals had a single CCV. Our cis-eQTL/mQTL and colocalization analyses using colorectal tissue-specific transcriptome and methylome data separately from 1299 and 321 individuals, along with functional genomic investigation, uncovered 136 putative CRC susceptibility genes, including 56 genes not previously reported. Analyses of single-cell RNA-seq data from colorectal tissues revealed 17 putative CRC susceptibility genes with distinct expression patterns in specific cell types. Analyses of whole exome sequencing data provided additional support for several target genes identified in this study as CRC susceptibility genes. Enrichment analyses of the 136 genes uncover pathways not previously linked to CRC risk. Our study substantially expanded association signals for CRC and provided additional insight into the biological mechanisms underlying CRC development.

Summary: Background: Understanding the role of circulating proteins in prostate cancer risk can reveal key biological pathways and identify novel targets for cancer prevention. Methods: We investigated the association of 2002 genetically predicted circulating protein levels with risk of prostate cancer overall, and of aggressive and early onset disease, using cis-pQTL Mendelian randomisation (MR) and colocalisation. Findings for proteins with support from both MR, after correction for multiple-testing, and colocalisation were replicated using two independent cancer GWAS, one of European and one of African ancestry. Proteins with evidence of prostate-specific tissue expression were additionally investigated using spatial transcriptomic data in prostate tumour tissue to assess their role in tumour aggressiveness. Finally, we mapped risk proteins to drug and ongoing clinical trials targets. Findings: We identified 20 proteins genetically linked to prostate cancer risk (14 for overall [8 specific], 7 for aggressive [3 specific], and 8 for early onset disease [2 specific]), of which the majority replicated where data were available. Among these were proteins associated with aggressive disease, such as PPA2 [Odds Ratio (OR) per 1 SD increment = 2.13, 95% CI: 1.54–2.93], PYY [OR = 1.87, 95% CI: 1.43–2.44] and PRSS3 [OR = 0.80, 95% CI: 0.73–0.89], and those associated with early onset disease, including EHPB1 [OR = 2.89, 95% CI: 1.99–4.21], POGLUT3 [OR = 0.76, 95% CI: 0.67–0.86] and TPM3 [OR = 0.47, 95% CI: 0.34–0.64]. We confirmed an inverse association of MSMB with prostate cancer overall [OR = 0.81, 95% CI: 0.80–0.82], and also found an inverse association with both aggressive [OR = 0.84, 95% CI: 0.82–0.86] and early onset disease [OR = 0.71, 95% CI: 0.68–0.74]. Using spatial transcriptomics data, we identified MSMB as the genome-wide top-most predictive gene to distinguish benign regions from high grade cancer regions that comparatively had five-fold lower MSMB expression. Additionally, ten proteins that were associated with prostate cancer risk also mapped to existing therapeutic interventions. Interpretation: Our findings emphasise the importance of proteomics for improving our understanding of prostate cancer aetiology and of opportunities for novel therapeutic interventions. Additionally, we demonstrate the added benefit of in-depth functional analyses to triangulate the role of risk proteins in the clinical aggressiveness of prostate tumours. Using these integrated methods, we identify a subset of risk proteins associated with aggressive and early onset disease as priorities for investigation for the future prevention and treatment of prostate cancer. Funding: This work was supported by Cancer Research UK (grant no. C8221/A29017).

Summary: Background: Consumption of fibre, fruits and vegetables have been linked with lower colorectal cancer (CRC) risk. A genome-wide gene-environment (G × E) analysis was performed to test whether genetic variants modify these associations. Methods: A pooled sample of 45 studies including up to 69,734 participants (cases: 29,896; controls: 39,838) of European ancestry were included. To identify G × E interactions, we used the traditional 1--degree-of-freedom (DF) G × E test and to improve power a 2-step procedure and a 3DF joint test that investigates the association between a genetic variant and dietary exposure, CRC risk and G × E interaction simultaneously. Findings: The 3-DF joint test revealed two significant loci with p-value

Abstract Background Testicular germ cell tumours (TGCTs) are the most common malignancy in men aged 15–40 years, with increasing incidence worldwide. About 33 ~ 50% of the patients present with metastatic disease at diagnosis. TGCT survivors experience short- and long-term sequelae, including cancer-related fatigue (CRF). Physical activity (PA) has established effects on reducing CRF and other sequelae and improving health-related quality of life (HRQoL). However, its impact on TGCT survivors has so far received little attention. The gut microbiota plays a crucial role in various physiological functions, including cognition and metabolism, and may mediate the effects of PA on CRF and other sequelae, but this has not been investigated in randomized controlled trials. Methods This national, multicentre, phase-III trial will evaluate the impact of a one-year supervised PA program on CRF and other short- and long-term sequelae in metastatic TGCT patients receiving cisplatin-based chemotherapy combined with etoposide+/-bleomycin. It will also investigate potential mediating effects of the gut microbiota and its metabolites involved in the gut-brain axis on the relationship between PA and CRF and other sequelae. A total of 236 men ≥ 18 years of age with metastatic TGCT (seminoma and non-seminoma) will be enrolled before starting first-line chemotherapy in several French hospitals. The primary (CRF) and secondary (cognitive/psychological/metabolic sequelae, HRQoL, etc.) outcomes and gut microbiota and relevant metabolites will be assessed at inclusion, during and at the end of the one-year intervention, and annually until 10 years since inclusion to assess long-term sequelae, more specifically CRF, cardiovascular toxicities, and second primary cancer occurrence in this population. Discussion This trial will provide comprehensive and novel insights into the effects of a long-term supervised PA program on CRF and other sequelae in metastatic TGCT patients receiving first-line chemotherapy. It will also contribute to understanding the potential role of the gut microbiota and its metabolites in mediating the effects of PA on these outcomes. The findings of this study will help the development of effective PA interventions to improve the health of TGCT survivors and may have implications for other cancer populations as well. Trial registration The study was registered on ClinicalTrials.gov (NCT05588700) on 20 Oct. 2022.

Abstract We investigated data-driven and hypothesis-driven dietary patterns and their association to plasma metabolite profiles and subsequent colorectal cancer (CRC) risk in 680 CRC cases and individually matched controls. Dietary patterns were identified from combined exploratory/confirmatory factor analysis. We assessed association to LC–MS metabolic profiles by random forest regression and to CRC risk by multivariable conditional logistic regression. Principal component analysis was used on metabolite features selected to reflect dietary exposures. Component scores were associated to CRC risk and dietary exposures using partial Spearman correlation. We identified 12 data-driven dietary patterns, of which a breakfast food pattern showed an inverse association with CRC risk (OR per standard deviation increase 0.89, 95% CI 0.80–1.00, p = 0.04). This pattern was also inversely associated with risk of distal colon cancer (0.75, 0.61–0.96, p = 0.01) and was more pronounced in women (0.69, 0.49–0.96, p = 0.03). Associations between meat, fast-food, fruit soup/rice patterns and CRC risk were modified by tumor location in women. Alcohol as well as fruit and vegetables associated with metabolite profiles (Q2 0.22 and 0.26, respectively). One metabolite reflecting alcohol intake associated with increased CRC risk, whereas three metabolites reflecting fiber, wholegrain, and fruit and vegetables associated with decreased CRC risk.

Abstract Background Whether cancer risk associated with a higher body mass index (BMI), a surrogate measure of adiposity, differs among adults with and without cardiovascular diseases (CVD) and/or type 2 diabetes (T2D) is unclear. The primary aim of this study was to evaluate separate and joint associations of BMI and CVD/T2D with the risk of cancer. Methods This is an individual participant data meta-analysis of two prospective cohort studies, the UK Biobank (UKB) and the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and nutrition (EPIC), with a total of 577,343 adults, free of cancer, T2D, and CVD at recruitment. We used Cox proportional hazard regressions to estimate multivariable-adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for associations between BMI and incidence of obesity-related cancer and in turn overall cancer with a multiplicative interaction between BMI and the two cardiometabolic diseases (CMD). HRs and 95% CIs for separate and joint associations for categories of overweight/obesity and CMD status were estimated, and additive interaction was quantified through relative excess risk due to interaction (RERI). Results In the meta-analysis of both cohorts, BMI (per ~ 5 kg/m2) was positively associated with the risk of obesity-related cancer among participants without a CMD (HR: 1.11, 95%CI: 1.07,1.16), among participants with T2D (HR: 1.11, 95% CI: 1.05,1.18), among participants with CVD (HR: 1.17, 95% CI: 1.11,1.24), and suggestively positive among those with both T2D and CVD (HR: 1.09, 95% CI: 0.94,1.25). An additive interaction between obesity (BMI ≥ 30 kg/m2) and CVD with the risk of overall cancer translated into a meta-analytical RERI of 0.28 (95% CI: 0.09–0.47). Conclusions Irrespective of CMD status, higher BMI increased the risk of obesity-related cancer among European adults. The additive interaction between obesity and CVD suggests that obesity prevention would translate into a greater cancer risk reduction among population groups with CVD than among the general population.

Abstract Background Fatty acid binding protein 4 (FABP-4) is a lipid-binding adipokine upregulated in obesity, which may facilitate fatty acid supply for tumor growth and promote insulin resistance and inflammation and may thus play a role in colorectal cancer (CRC) development. We aimed to investigate the association between circulating FABP-4 and CRC and to assess potential causality using a Mendelian randomization (MR) approach. Methods The association between pre-diagnostic plasma measurements of FABP-4 and CRC risk was investigated in a nested case-control study in 1324 CRC cases and the same number of matched controls within the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) cohort. A two-sample Mendelian randomization study was conducted based on three genetic variants (1 cis, 2 trans) associated with circulating FABP-4 identified in a published genome-wide association study (discovery n = 20,436) and data from 58,131 CRC cases and 67,347 controls in the Genetics and Epidemiology of Colorectal Cancer Consortium, Colorectal Cancer Transdisciplinary Study, and Colon Cancer Family Registry. Results In conditional logistic regression models adjusted for potential confounders including body size, the estimated relative risk, RR (95% confidence interval, CI) per one standard deviation, SD (8.9 ng/mL) higher FABP-4 concentration was 1.01 (0.92, 1.12) overall, 0.95 (0.80, 1.13) in men and 1.09 (0.95, 1.25) in women. Genetically determined higher FABP-4 was not associated with colorectal cancer risk (RR per FABP-4 SD was 1.10 (0.95, 1.27) overall, 1.03 (0.84, 1.26) in men and 1.21 (0.98, 1.48) in women). However, in a cis-MR approach, a statistically significant association was observed in women (RR 1.56, 1.09, 2.23) but not overall (RR 1.23, 0.97, 1.57) or in men (0.99, 0.71, 1.37). Conclusions Taken together, these analyses provide no support for a causal role of circulating FABP-4 in the development of CRC, although the cis-MR provides some evidence for a positive association in women, which may deserve to be investigated further.

Abstract Polygenic risk scores (PRS) have great potential to guide precision colorectal cancer (CRC) prevention by identifying those at higher risk to undertake targeted screening. However, current PRS using European ancestry data have sub-optimal performance in non-European ancestry populations, limiting their utility among these populations. Towards addressing this deficiency, we expand PRS development for CRC by incorporating Asian ancestry data (21,731 cases; 47,444 controls) into European ancestry training datasets (78,473 cases; 107,143 controls). The AUC estimates (95% CI) of PRS are 0.63(0.62-0.64), 0.59(0.57-0.61), 0.62(0.60-0.63), and 0.65(0.63-0.66) in independent datasets including 1681-3651 cases and 8696-115,105 controls of Asian, Black/African American, Latinx/Hispanic, and non-Hispanic White, respectively. They are significantly better than the European-centric PRS in all four major US racial and ethnic groups (p-values

Abstract Background Colorectal cancer (CRC) is a leading cause of cancer-related death worldwide, but if discovered at an early stage, the survival rate is high. The aim of this study was to identify novel markers predictive of future CRC risk using untargeted metabolomics. Methods This study included prospectively collected plasma samples from 902 CRC cases and 902 matched cancer-free control participants from the population-based Northern Sweden Health and Disease Study (NSHDS), which were obtained up to 26 years prior to CRC diagnosis. Using reverse-phase liquid chromatography–mass spectrometry (LC–MS), data comprising 5015 metabolic features were obtained. Conditional logistic regression was applied to identify potentially important metabolic features associated with CRC risk. In addition, we investigated if previously reported metabolite biomarkers of CRC risk could be validated in this study population. Results In the univariable analysis, seven metabolic features were associated with CRC risk (using a false discovery rate cutoff of 0.25). Two of these could be annotated, one as pyroglutamic acid (odds ratio per one standard deviation increase = 0.79, 95% confidence interval, 0.70–0.89) and another as hydroxytigecycline (odds ratio per one standard deviation increase = 0.77, 95% confidence interval, 0.67–0.89). Associations with CRC risk were also found for six previously reported metabolic biomarkers of prevalent and/or incident CRC: sebacic acid (inverse association) and L-tryptophan, 3-hydroxybutyric acid, 9,12,13-TriHOME, valine, and 13-OxoODE (positive associations). Conclusions These findings suggest that although the circulating metabolome may provide new etiological insights into the underlying causes of CRC development, its potential application for the identification of individuals at higher risk of developing CRC is limited.

Abstract Background The benefit of physical activity (PA) for increasing longevity is well-established, however, the impact of diurnal timing of PA on mortality remains poorly understood. We aimed to derive circadian PA patterns and investigate their associations with all-cause mortality. Methods We used 24 h PA time series from 96,351 UK Biobank participants aged between 42 and 79 years at accelerometry in 2013–2015. Functional principal component analysis (fPCA) was applied to obtain circadian PA patterns. Using multivariable Cox proportional hazard models, we related the loading scores of these fPCs to estimate risk of mortality. Results During 6.9 years of follow-up, 2,850 deaths occurred. Four distinct fPCs accounted for 96% of the variation of the accelerometry data. Using a loading score of zero (i.e., average overall PA during the day) as the reference, a fPC1 score of + 2 (high overall PA) was inversely associated with mortality (Hazard ratio, HR = 0.91; 95% CI: 0.84–0.99), whereas a score of -2 (low overall PA) was associated with higher mortality (1.69; 95% CI: 1.57–1.81; p for non-linearity

Summary: Background: Obesity has been positively associated with most molecular subtypes of colorectal cancer (CRC); however, the magnitude and the causality of these associations is uncertain. Methods: We used Mendelian randomization (MR) to examine potential causal relationships between body size traits (body mass index [BMI], waist circumference, and body fat percentage) with risks of Jass classification types and individual subtypes of CRC (microsatellite instability [MSI] status, CpG island methylator phenotype [CIMP] status, BRAF and KRAS mutations). Summary data on tumour markers were obtained from two genetic consortia (CCFR, GECCO). Findings: A 1-standard deviation (SD:5.1 kg/m2) increment in BMI levels was found to increase risks of Jass type 1MSI-high,CIMP-high,BRAF-mutated,KRAS-wildtype (odds ratio [OR]: 2.14, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.46, 3.13; p-value = 9 × 10−5) and Jass type 2non-MSI-high,CIMP-high,BRAF-mutated,KRAS-wildtype CRC (OR: 2.20, 95% CI: 1.26, 3.86; p-value = 0.005). The magnitude of these associations was stronger compared with Jass type 4non-MSI-high,CIMP-low/negative,BRAF-wildtype,KRAS-wildtype CRC (p-differences: 0.03 and 0.04, respectively). A 1-SD (SD:13.4 cm) increment in waist circumference increased risk of Jass type 3non-MSI-high,CIMP-low/negative,BRAF-wildtype,KRAS-mutated (OR 1.73, 95% CI: 1.34, 2.25; p-value = 9 × 10−5) that was stronger compared with Jass type 4 CRC (p-difference: 0.03). A higher body fat percentage (SD:8.5%) increased risk of Jass type 1 CRC (OR: 2.59, 95% CI: 1.49, 4.48; p-value = 0.001), which was greater than Jass type 4 CRC (p-difference: 0.03). Interpretation: Body size was more strongly linked to the serrated (Jass types 1 and 2) and alternate (Jass type 3) pathways of colorectal carcinogenesis in comparison to the traditional pathway (Jass type 4). Funding: Cancer Research UK, National Institute for Health Research, Medical Research Council, National Institutes of Health, National Cancer Institute, American Institute for Cancer Research, Brigham and Women's Hospital, Prevent Cancer Foundation, Victorian Cancer Agency, Swedish Research Council, Swedish Cancer Society, Region Västerbotten, Knut and Alice Wallenberg Foundation, Lion’s Cancer Research Foundation, Insamlingsstiftelsen, Umeå University. Full funding details are provided in acknowledgements.

Summary: Background: Altered lipid metabolism is a hallmark of cancer development. However, the role of specific lipid metabolites in colorectal cancer development is uncertain. Methods: In a case–control study nested within the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC), we examined associations between pre-diagnostic circulating concentrations of 97 lipid metabolites (acylcarnitines, glycerophospholipids and sphingolipids) and colorectal cancer risk. Circulating lipids were measured using targeted mass spectrometry in 1591 incident colorectal cancer cases (55% women) and 1591 matched controls. Multivariable conditional logistic regression was used to estimate odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for associations between concentrations of individual lipid metabolites and metabolite patterns with colorectal cancer risk. Findings: Of the 97 assayed lipids, 24 were inversely associated (nominally p

Abstract Background The Mediterranean diet has been associated with lower risk of breast cancer (BC) but evidence from prospective studies on the role of Mediterranean diet on BC survival remains sparse and conflicting. We aimed to investigate whether adherence to Mediterranean diet prior to diagnosis is associated with overall and BC-specific mortality. Methods A total of 13,270 incident breast cancer cases were identified from an initial sample of 318,686 women in 9 countries from the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) study. Adherence to Mediterranean diet was estimated through the adapted relative Mediterranean diet (arMED), a 16-point score that includes 8 key components of the Mediterranean diet and excludes alcohol. The degree of adherence to arMED was classified as low (score 0–5), medium (score 6–8), and high (score 9–16). Multivariable Cox proportional hazards models were used to analyze the association between the arMED score and overall mortality, and Fine-Gray competing risks models were applied for BC-specific mortality. Results After a mean follow-up of 8.6 years from diagnosis, 2340 women died, including 1475 from breast cancer. Among all BC survivors, low compared to medium adherence to arMED score was associated with a 13% higher risk of all-cause mortality (HR 1.13, 95%CI 1.01–1.26). High compared to medium adherence to arMED showed a non-statistically significant association (HR 0.94; 95% CI 0.84–1.05). With no statistically significant departures from linearity, on a continuous scale, a 3-unit increase in the arMED score was associated with an 8% reduced risk of overall mortality (HR3-unit 0.92, 95% CI: 0.87–0.97). This result sustained when restricted to postmenopausal women and was stronger among metastatic BC cases (HR3-unit 0.81, 95% CI: 0.72–0.91). Conclusions Consuming a Mediterranean diet before BC diagnosis may improve long-term prognosis, particularly after menopause and in cases of metastatic breast cancer. Well-designed dietary interventions are needed to confirm these findings and define specific dietary recommendations.

Summary: Background: Type 2 diabetes is associated with higher risk of several cancer types. However, the biological intermediates driving this relationship are not fully understood. As novel interventions for treating and managing type 2 diabetes become increasingly available, whether they also disrupt the pathways leading to increased cancer risk is currently unknown. We investigated the effect of a type 2 diabetes intervention, in the form of intentional weight loss, on circulating proteins associated with cancer risk to gain insight into potential mechanisms linking type 2 diabetes and adiposity with cancer development. Methods: Fasting serum samples from participants with diabetes enrolled in the Diabetes Remission Clinical Trial (DiRECT) receiving the Counterweight-Plus weight-loss programme (intervention, N = 117, mean weight-loss 10 kg, 46% diabetes remission) or best-practice care by guidelines (control, N = 143, mean weight-loss 1 kg, 4% diabetes remission) were subject to proteomic analysis using the Olink Oncology-II platform (48% of participants were female; 52% male). To identify proteins which may be altered by the weight-loss intervention, the difference in protein levels between groups at baseline and 1 year was examined using linear regression. Mendelian randomization (MR) was performed to extend these results to evaluate cancer risk and elucidate possible biological mechanisms linking type 2 diabetes and cancer development. MR analyses were conducted using independent datasets, including large cancer meta-analyses, UK Biobank, and FinnGen, to estimate potential causal relationships between proteins modified during intentional weight loss and the risk of colorectal, breast, endometrial, gallbladder, liver, and pancreatic cancers. Findings: Nine proteins were modified by the intervention: glycoprotein Nmb; furin; Wnt inhibitory factor 1; toll-like receptor 3; pancreatic prohormone; erb-b2 receptor tyrosine kinase 2; hepatocyte growth factor; endothelial cell specific molecule 1 and Ret proto-oncogene (Holm corrected P-value

Summary: Background: Tumour-promoting inflammation is a “hallmark” of cancer and conventional epidemiological studies have reported links between various inflammatory markers and cancer risk. The causal nature of these relationships and, thus, the suitability of these markers as intervention targets for cancer prevention is unclear. Methods: We meta-analysed 6 genome-wide association studies of circulating inflammatory markers comprising 59,969 participants of European ancestry. We then used combined cis-Mendelian randomization and colocalisation analysis to evaluate the causal role of 66 circulating inflammatory markers in risk of 30 adult cancers in 338,294 cancer cases and up to 1,238,345 controls. Genetic instruments for inflammatory markers were constructed using genome-wide significant (P 70% was employed to indicate support for shared causal variants across inflammatory markers and cancer outcomes. Findings were replicated in the FinnGen study and then pooled using meta-analysis. Findings: We found strong evidence to support an association of genetically-proxied circulating pro-adrenomedullin concentrations with increased breast cancer risk (OR: 1.19, 95% CI: 1.10–1.29, q-value = 0.033, PPH4 = 84.3%) and suggestive evidence to support associations of interleukin-23 receptor concentrations with increased pancreatic cancer risk (OR: 1.42, 95% CI: 1.20–1.69, q-value = 0.055, PPH4 = 73.9%), prothrombin concentrations with decreased basal cell carcinoma risk (OR: 0.66, 95% CI: 0.53–0.81, q-value = 0.067, PPH4 = 81.8%), and interleukin-1 receptor-like 1 concentrations with decreased triple-negative breast cancer risk (OR: 0.92, 95% CI: 0.88–0.97, q-value = 0.15, PPH4 = 85.6%). These findings were replicated in pooled analyses with the FinnGen study. Though suggestive evidence was found to support an association of macrophage migration inhibitory factor concentrations with increased bladder cancer risk (OR: 2.46, 95% CI: 1.48–4.10, q-value = 0.072, PPH4 = 76.1%), this finding was not replicated when pooled with the FinnGen study. For 22 of 30 cancer outcomes examined, there was little evidence (q-value ≥0.20) that any of the 66 circulating inflammatory markers examined were associated with cancer risk. Interpretation: Our comprehensive joint Mendelian randomization and colocalisation analysis of the role of circulating inflammatory markers in cancer risk identified potential roles for 4 circulating inflammatory markers in risk of 4 site-specific cancers. Contrary to reports from some prior conventional epidemiological studies, we found little evidence of association of circulating inflammatory markers with the majority of site-specific cancers evaluated. Funding: Cancer Research UK (C68933/A28534, C18281/A29019, PPRCPJT∖100005), World Cancer Research Fund (IIG_FULL_2020_022), National Institute for Health Research (NIHR202411, BRC-1215-20011), Medical Research Council (MC_UU_00011/1, MC_UU_00011/3, MC_UU_00011/6, and MC_UU_00011/4), Academy of Finland Project 326291, European Union's Horizon 2020 grant agreement no. 848158 (EarlyCause), French National Cancer Institute (INCa SHSESP20, 2020-076), Versus Arthritis (21173, 21754, 21755), National Institutes of Health (U19 CA203654), National Cancer Institute (U19CA203654).

Mycotoxins have been hypothesized to contribute to a diversity of adverse health effects in humans, even at low concentrations. Certain mycotoxins are established human carcinogens, whereas for others research suggests potential carcinogenic effects. The aim of this study was to determine the association between dietary exposure to mycotoxins and hepatobiliary cancers in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) cohort. EPIC questionnaire data were matched to mycotoxin food occurrence data compiled by the European Food Safety Authority to assess long-term dietary mycotoxin exposure (expressed as μg/kg body weight/day) and then relate them to the risk of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) (n = 255) and biliary tract cancers (n = 273). Analyses were conducted using multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression models to compute hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CI). Key food groups contributing to mycotoxin exposure were cereals and cereal-based products, vegetables, non-alcoholic beverages (including fruit juices) and fruits. Estimated intake of deoxynivalenol (DON) and its derivatives was positively associated with HCC risk (HRT3vsT1: 1.90, 95% CI: 1.18-3.05, p-trend

Abstract Background Sedentary behaviours have been associated with increased risks of some common cancers in epidemiological studies; however, it is unclear if these associations are causal. Methods We used univariable and multivariable two‐sample Mendelian randomisation (MR) to examine potential causal relationships between sedentary behaviours and risks of breast, colorectal and prostate cancer. Genetic variants associated with self‐reported leisure television watching and computer use were identified from a recent genome‐wide association study (GWAS). Data related to cancer risk were obtained from cancer GWAS consortia. A series of sensitivity analyses were applied to examine the robustness of the results to the presence of confounding. Results A 1‐standard deviation (SD: 1.5 h/day) increment in hours of television watching increased risk of breast cancer (OR per 1‐SD: 1.15, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.05–1.26) and colorectal cancer (OR per 1‐SD: 1.32, 95% CI: 1.16–1.49) while there was little evidence of an association for prostate cancer risk (OR per 1‐SD: 0.94, 95% CI: 0.84–1.06). After adjusting for years of education, the effect estimates for television watching were attenuated (breast cancer, OR per 1‐SD: 1.08, 95% CI: 0.92–1.27; colorectal cancer, OR per 1‐SD: 1.08, 95% CI: 0.90–1.31). Post hoc analyses showed that years of education might have a possible confounding and mediating role in the association between television watching with breast and colorectal cancer. Consistent results were observed for each cancer site according to sex (colorectal cancer), anatomical subsites and cancer subtypes. There was little evidence of associations between genetically predicted computer use and cancer risk. Conclusions Our univariable analysis identified some positive associations between hours of television watching and risks of breast and colorectal cancer. However, further adjustment for additional lifestyle factors especially years of education attenuated these results. Future studies using objective measures of exposure can provide new insights into the possible role of sedentary behaviour in cancer development.

Background: Recognizing the early signs of cancer risk is vital for informing prevention, early detection, and survival. Methods: To investigate whether changes in circulating metabolites characterize the early stages of colorectal cancer (CRC) development, we examined the associations between a genetic risk score (GRS) associated with CRC liability (72 single-nucleotide polymorphisms) and 231 circulating metabolites measured by nuclear magnetic resonance spectroscopy in the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children (N = 6221). Linear regression models were applied to examine the associations between genetic liability to CRC and circulating metabolites measured in the same individuals at age 8 y, 16 y, 18 y, and 25 y. Results: The GRS for CRC was associated with up to 28% of the circulating metabolites at FDR-P < 0.05 across all time points, particularly with higher fatty acids and very-low- and low-density lipoprotein subclass lipids. Two-sample reverse Mendelian randomization (MR) analyses investigating CRC liability (52,775 cases, 45,940 controls) and metabolites measured in a random subset of UK Biobank participants (N = 118,466, median age 58 y) revealed broadly consistent effect estimates with the GRS analysis. In conventional (forward) MR analyses, genetically predicted polyunsaturated fatty acid concentrations were most strongly associated with higher CRC risk. Conclusions: These analyses suggest that higher genetic liability to CRC can cause early alterations in systemic metabolism and suggest that fatty acids may play an important role in CRC development. Funding: This work was supported by the Elizabeth Blackwell Institute for Health Research, University of Bristol, the Wellcome Trust, the Medical Research Council, Diabetes UK, the University of Bristol NIHR Biomedical Research Centre, and Cancer Research UK. The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript. This work used the computational facilities of the Advanced Computing Research Centre, University of Bristol - http://www.bristol.ac.uk/acrc/.

Abstract Background Amino acid metabolism is dysregulated in colorectal cancer patients; however, it is not clear whether pre-diagnostic levels of amino acids are associated with subsequent risk of colorectal cancer. We investigated circulating levels of amino acids in relation to colorectal cancer risk in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) and UK Biobank cohorts. Methods Concentrations of 13-21 amino acids were determined in baseline fasting plasma or serum samples in 654 incident colorectal cancer cases and 654 matched controls in EPIC. Amino acids associated with colorectal cancer risk following adjustment for the false discovery rate (FDR) were then tested for associations in the UK Biobank, for which measurements of 9 amino acids were available in 111,323 participants, of which 1221 were incident colorectal cancer cases. Results Histidine levels were inversely associated with colorectal cancer risk in EPIC (odds ratio [OR] 0.80 per standard deviation [SD], 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.69–0.92, FDR P-value=0.03) and in UK Biobank (HR 0.93 per SD, 95% CI 0.87–0.99, P-value=0.03). Glutamine levels were borderline inversely associated with colorectal cancer risk in EPIC (OR 0.85 per SD, 95% CI 0.75–0.97, FDR P-value=0.08) and similarly in UK Biobank (HR 0.95, 95% CI 0.89–1.01, P=0.09) In both cohorts, associations changed only minimally when cases diagnosed within 2 or 5 years of follow-up were excluded. Conclusions Higher circulating levels of histidine were associated with a lower risk of colorectal cancer in two large prospective cohorts. Further research to ascertain the role of histidine metabolism and potentially that of glutamine in colorectal cancer development is warranted.

Abstract Background Observational studies have linked childhood obesity with elevated risk of colorectal cancer; however, it is unclear if this association is causal or independent from the effects of obesity in adulthood on colorectal cancer risk. Methods We conducted Mendelian randomization (MR) analyses to investigate potential causal relationships between self-perceived body size (thinner, plumper, or about average) in early life (age 10) and measured body mass index in adulthood (mean age 56.5) with risk of colorectal cancer. The total and independent effects of body size exposures were estimated using univariable and multivariable MR, respectively. Summary data were obtained from a genome-wide association study of 453,169 participants in UK Biobank for body size and from a genome-wide association study meta-analysis of three colorectal cancer consortia of 125,478 participants. Results Genetically predicted early life body size was estimated to increase odds of colorectal cancer (odds ratio [OR] per category change: 1.12, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.98–1.27), with stronger results for colon cancer (OR: 1.16, 95% CI: 1.00–1.35), and distal colon cancer (OR: 1.25, 95% CI: 1.04–1.51). After accounting for adult body size using multivariable MR, effect estimates for early life body size were attenuated towards the null for colorectal cancer (OR: 0.97, 95% CI: 0.77–1.22) and colon cancer (OR: 0.97, 95% CI: 0.76–1.25), while the estimate for distal colon cancer was of similar magnitude but more imprecise (OR: 1.27, 95% CI: 0.90–1.77). Genetically predicted adult life body size was estimated to increase odds of colorectal (OR: 1.27, 95% CI: 1.03, 1.57), colon (OR: 1.32, 95% CI: 1.05, 1.67), and proximal colon (OR: 1.57, 95% CI: 1.21, 2.05). Conclusions Our findings suggest that the positive association between early life body size and colorectal cancer risk is likely due to large body size retainment into adulthood.

Abstract Background Metabolic syndrome (MetS), a group of risk factors that define metabolic dysfunction in adults, is strongly associated with obesity and is an emerging risk factor for cancer. However, the association of MetS and degree of metabolic dysfunction with obesity‐related cancer is unknown. Methods Using National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey data from 1999 to 2018, we identified 528 obesity‐related cancer cases and 18,972 cancer‐free participants. MetS was defined as the presence of or treatment for ≥3 of hyperglycemia, hypertension, hypertriglyceridemia, low HDL–cholesterol, and abdominal obesity. A metabolic syndrome score (MSS) was computed as the total number of abnormal MetS parameters to determine the severity of metabolic dysfunction. Odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were estimated using multivariable logistic regression models, adjusting for sociodemographic and lifestyle factors. Results About 45.7% of obesity‐related cancer cases were classified as having MetS compared with only 33.0% of cancer‐free participants. Overall, MetS and MSS were not associated with obesity‐related cancer. However, MSS was associated with higher obesity‐related cancer risk among participants under 50 years of age (OR [95% CI] = 1.28 [1.08–1.52]). When evaluating MSS categorically, compared with healthy participants with no abnormal MetS parameters (MSS = 0), participants with one or two abnormal parameters had a statistically significant higher risk of obesity‐related cancer (OR [95% CI] = 1.73 [1.06–2.83]). Conclusions Metabolic dysfunction is associated with a higher risk of obesity‐related cancer, particularly in young adults under 50 years of age, and among participants with one or two abnormal metabolic parameters. A more accurate indicator of metabolic dysfunction, beyond metabolic syndrome, is needed to better assist in stratifying individuals for obesity‐related cancer risk.

Abstract Background Epidemiological studies of associations between metabolites and cancer risk have typically focused on specific cancer types separately. Here, we designed a multivariate pan-cancer analysis to identify metabolites potentially associated with multiple cancer types, while also allowing the investigation of cancer type-specific associations. Methods We analysed targeted metabolomics data available for 5828 matched case-control pairs from cancer-specific case-control studies on breast, colorectal, endometrial, gallbladder, kidney, localized and advanced prostate cancer, and hepatocellular carcinoma nested within the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) cohort. From pre-diagnostic blood levels of an initial set of 117 metabolites, 33 cluster representatives of strongly correlated metabolites and 17 single metabolites were derived by hierarchical clustering. The mutually adjusted associations of the resulting 50 metabolites with cancer risk were examined in penalized conditional logistic regression models adjusted for body mass index, using the data-shared lasso penalty. Results Out of the 50 studied metabolites, (i) six were inversely associated with the risk of most cancer types: glutamine, butyrylcarnitine, lysophosphatidylcholine a C18:2, and three clusters of phosphatidylcholines (PCs); (ii) three were positively associated with most cancer types: proline, decanoylcarnitine, and one cluster of PCs; and (iii) 10 were specifically associated with particular cancer types, including histidine that was inversely associated with colorectal cancer risk and one cluster of sphingomyelins that was inversely associated with risk of hepatocellular carcinoma and positively with endometrial cancer risk. Conclusions These results could provide novel insights for the identification of pathways for cancer development, in particular those shared across different cancer types.

Abstract Introduction Body mass index (BMI) fails to identify up to one‐third of normal weight individuals with metabolic dysfunction who may be at increased risk of obesity‐related cancer (ORC). Metabolic obesity phenotypes, an alternate metric to assess metabolic dysfunction with or without obesity, were evaluated for association with ORC risk. Methods National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey participants from 1999 to 2018 (N = 19,500) were categorized into phenotypes according to the metabolic syndrome (MetS) criteria and BMI: metabolically healthy normal weight (MHNW), metabolically unhealthy normal weight (MUNW), metabolically healthy overweight/obese (MHO) and metabolically unhealthy overweight/obese (MUO). Adjusted multivariable logistic regression models were used to evaluate associations with ORC. Results With metabolic dysfunction defined as ≥1 MetS criteria, ORC cases (n = 528) had higher proportions of MUNW (28.2% vs. 17.4%) and MUO (62.6% vs. 60.9%) phenotypes than cancer‐free individuals (n = 18,972). Compared with MHNW participants, MUNW participants had a 2.2‐times higher ORC risk [OR (95%CI) = 2.21 (1.27–3.85)]. MHO and MUO participants demonstrated a 43% and 56% increased ORC risk, respectively, compared to MHNW, but these did not reach statistical significance [OR (95% CI) = 1.43 (0.46–4.42), 1.56 (0.91–2.67), respectively]. Hyperglycaemia, hypertension and central obesity were all independently associated with higher ORC risk compared to MHNW. Conclusions MUNW participants have a higher risk of ORC than other abnormal phenotypes, compared with MHNW participants. Incorporating metabolic health measures in addition to assessing BMI may improve ORC risk stratification. Further research on the relationship between metabolic dysfunction and ORC is warranted.

Summary: Preclinical and genetic studies suggest that impaired glucose-dependent insulinotropic polypeptide receptor (GIPR) signaling worsens glycemic control. The relationship between GIPR signaling and the risk of cancers influenced by impaired glucose homeostasis is unclear. We examined the association of a variant in GIPR, rs1800437 (E354Q), shown to impair long-term GIPR signaling and lower circulating glucose-dependent insulinotropic peptide concentrations, with risk of 6 cancers influenced by impaired glucose homeostasis (breast, colorectal, endometrial, lung, pancreatic, and renal) in up to 235,698 cases and 333,932 controls. Each copy of E354Q was associated with a higher risk of overall and luminal A-like breast cancer and this association was consistent in replication and colocalization analyses. E354Q was also associated with higher postprandial glucose concentrations but diminished insulin secretion and lower testosterone concentrations. Our human genetics analysis suggests an adverse effect of the GIPR E354Q variant on breast cancer risk, supporting further evaluation of GIPR signaling in breast cancer prevention.

Abstract Background The role of elevated pre-diagnostic C-reactive protein (CRP) concentrations on mortality in individuals with colorectal cancer (CRC) remains unclear. Methods We investigated the association between pre-diagnostic high-sensitivity CRP concentrations and CRP genetic variation associated with circulating CRP and CRC-specific and all-cause mortality based on data from 1,235 individuals with CRC within the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition cohort using multivariable-adjusted Cox proportional hazards regression. Results During a median follow-up of 9.3 years, 455 CRC-specific deaths were recorded, out of 590 deaths from all causes. Pre-diagnostic CRP concentrations were not associated with CRC-specific (hazard ratio, HR highest versus lowest quintile 0.92, 95% confidence interval, CI 0.66, 1.28) or all-cause mortality (HR 0.91, 95% CI 0.68, 1.21). Genetic predisposition to higher CRP (weighted score based on alleles of four CRP SNPs associated with higher circulating CRP) was not significantly associated with CRC-specific mortality (HR per CRP-score unit 0.95, 95% CI 0.86, 1.05) or all-cause mortality (HR 0.98, 95% CI 0.90, 1.07). Among four investigated CRP genetic variants, only SNP rs1205 was significantly associated with CRC-specific (comparing the CT and CC genotypes with TT genotype, HR 0.54, 95% CI 0.35, 0.83 and HR 0.58, 95% CI 0.38, 0.88, respectively) and all-cause mortality (HR 0.58, 95% CI 0.40, 0.85 and 0.64, 95% CI 0.44, 0.92, respectively). Conclusions The results of this prospective cohort study do not support a role of pre-diagnostic CRP concentrations on mortality in individuals with CRC. The observed associations with rs1205 deserve further scientific attention.

Germline biallelic pathogenic MUTYH variants predispose patients to colorectal cancer (CRC); however, approaches to identify MUTYH variant carriers are lacking. Here, the authors evaluated mutational signatures that could distinguish MUTYH carriers in large CRC cohorts, and found MUTYH-associated somatic mutations.

Abstract Background Body mass index (BMI) and cardiometabolic comorbidities such as cardiovascular disease and type 2 diabetes have been studied as negative prognostic factors in cancer survival, but possible dependencies in the mechanisms underlying these associations remain largely unexplored. We analysed these associations in colorectal and breast cancer patients. Methods Based on repeated BMI assessments of cancer-free participants from four European countries in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and nutrition (EPIC) study, individual BMI-trajectories reflecting predicted mean BMI between ages 20 to 50 years were estimated using a growth curve model. Participants with incident colorectal or breast cancer after the age of 50 years were included in the survival analysis to study the prognostic effect of mean BMI and cardiometabolic diseases (CMD) prior to cancer. CMD were defined as one or more chronic conditions among stroke, myocardial infarction, and type 2 diabetes. Hazard ratios (HRs) and confidence intervals (CIs) of mean BMI and CMD were derived using multivariable-adjusted Cox proportional hazard regression for mean BMI and CMD separately and both exposures combined, in subgroups of localised and advanced disease. Results In the total cohort of 159,045 participants, there were 1,045 and 1,620 eligible patients of colorectal and breast cancer. In colorectal cancer patients, a higher BMI (by 1 kg/m2) was associated with a 6% increase in risk of death (95% CI of HR: 1.02–1.10). The HR for CMD was 1.25 (95% CI: 0.97–1.61). The associations for both exposures were stronger in patients with localised colorectal cancer. In breast cancer patients, a higher BMI was associated with a 4% increase in risk of death (95% CI: 1.00–1.08). CMDs were associated with a 46% increase in risk of death (95% CI: 1.01–2.09). The estimates and CIs for BMI remained similar after adjustment for CMD and vice versa. Conclusions Our results suggest that cumulative exposure to higher BMI during early to mid-adulthood was associated with poorer survival in patients with breast and colorectal cancer, independent of CMD prior to cancer diagnosis. The association between a CMD diagnosis prior to cancer and survival in patients with breast and colorectal cancer was independent of BMI.

Abstract Background Endometrial cancer is the most common gynaecological cancer in high-income countries. Elevated body mass index (BMI) is an established modifiable risk factor for this condition and is estimated to confer a larger effect on endometrial cancer risk than any other cancer site. However, the molecular mechanisms underpinning this association remain unclear. We used Mendelian randomization (MR) to evaluate the causal role of 14 molecular risk factors (hormonal, metabolic and inflammatory markers) in endometrial cancer risk. We then evaluated and quantified the potential mediating role of these molecular traits in the relationship between BMI and endometrial cancer using multivariable MR. Methods Genetic instruments to proxy 14 molecular risk factors and BMI were constructed by identifying single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) reliably associated (P < 5.0 × 10−8) with each respective risk factor in previous genome-wide association studies (GWAS). Summary statistics for the association of these SNPs with overall and subtype-specific endometrial cancer risk (12,906 cases and 108,979 controls) were obtained from a GWAS meta-analysis of the Endometrial Cancer Association Consortium (ECAC), Epidemiology of Endometrial Cancer Consortium (E2C2) and UK Biobank. SNPs were combined into multi-allelic models and odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CIs) were generated using inverse-variance weighted random-effects models. The mediating roles of the molecular risk factors in the relationship between BMI and endometrial cancer were then estimated using multivariable MR. Results In MR analyses, there was strong evidence that BMI (OR per standard deviation (SD) increase 1.88, 95% CI 1.69 to 2.09, P = 3.87 × 10−31), total testosterone (OR per inverse-normal transformed nmol/L increase 1.64, 95% CI 1.43 to 1.88, P = 1.71 × 10−12), bioavailable testosterone (OR per natural log transformed nmol/L increase: 1.46, 95% CI 1.29 to 1.65, P = 3.48 × 10−9), fasting insulin (OR per natural log transformed pmol/L increase: 3.93, 95% CI 2.29 to 6.74, P = 7.18 × 10−7) and sex hormone-binding globulin (SHBG, OR per inverse-normal transformed nmol/L increase 0.71, 95% CI 0.59 to 0.85, P = 2.07 × 10−4) had a causal effect on endometrial cancer risk. Additionally, there was suggestive evidence that total serum cholesterol (OR per mg/dL increase 0.90, 95% CI 0.81 to 1.00, P = 4.01 × 10−2) had an effect on endometrial cancer risk. In mediation analysis, we found evidence for a mediating role of fasting insulin (19% total effect mediated, 95% CI 5 to 34%, P = 9.17 × 10−3), bioavailable testosterone (15% mediated, 95% CI 10 to 20%, P = 1.43 × 10−8) and SHBG (7% mediated, 95% CI 1 to 12%, P = 1.81 × 10−2) in the relationship between BMI and endometrial cancer risk. Conclusions Our comprehensive MR analysis provides insight into potential causal mechanisms linking BMI with endometrial cancer risk and suggests targeting of insulinemic and hormonal traits as a potential strategy for the prevention of endometrial cancer.

Abstract Background Mildly elevated bilirubin, a by-product of hemoglobin breakdown, might mitigate cardiometabolic risk factors including adiposity, dyslipidemia, and high blood pressure (BP). We investigated the cross-sectional relationship between (total) bilirubin and baseline cardiometabolic risk factors in 467,519 UK Biobank study participants. Methods We used multivariable-adjusted linear regression to estimate associations between bilirubin levels and risk factors of cardiometabolic diseases including body mass index (BMI), waist and hip circumferences (WC, HC), waist-to-hip ratio (WHR), fat mass (FM), and trunk FM, and the blood lipids: apolipoprotein A-I (apoA-I), apolipoprotein B (apoB), apoB/apoA-I, lipoprotein (a), total cholesterol (TC), low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C), high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C), LDL/HDL, TC/HDL, triglycerides (TG). Log-transformed bilirubin was modelled with restricted cubic splines and predicted mean values with 99% confidence intervals (CI) for each risk marker were estimated, separately. Second, we applied principal component analysis (PCA) for dimension reduction to in turn six anthropometric traits (height, weight, BMI, WC, HC, and WHR) and all above lipids. Last, we estimated associations (99%CI) between bilirubin and three components of the metabolic syndrome, i.e. WC, TG, and BP using logistic regression. Results After multivariable adjustments, higher levels of bilirubin were inversely associated with indicators of general adiposity (BMI and FM) and of body fat distribution (WC, HC, WHR, and trunk FM) in both men and women. For example, women with mildly elevated bilirubin (95th percentile equal to 15.0 µmol/L), compared to women with low bilirubin (5th percentile equal to 4.5 µmol/L), had on average a 2.0 kg/m2 (99% CI 1.9–2.1) lower BMI. Inverse associations were also observed with dyslipidemia among men and women. For example, mildly elevated bilirubin among men (95th percentile equal to 19.4 µmol/L) compared to low levels of bilirubin (5th percentile equal to 5.5 µmol/L) were associated with approx. 0.55 mmol/L (99% CI 0.53–0.56) lower TG levels, with similar inverse associations among women. Multiple-trait analyses using PCA confirmed single-trait analyses. Men and women with mildly elevated bilirubin levels ≥ 17.1 µmol/L, compared to low-normal bilirubin

Abstract Background Inflammation has been hypothesized to play a role in the development and progression of breast cancer and might differently impact breast cancer risk among pre and postmenopausal women. We performed a nested case-control study to examine whether pre-diagnostic circulating concentrations of adiponectin, leptin, c-reactive protein (CRP), tumour necrosis factor-α, interferon-γ and 6 interleukins were associated with breast cancer risk, overall and by menopausal status. Methods Pre-diagnostic levels of inflammatory biomarkers were measured in plasma from 1558 case-control pairs from the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) cohort. We used conditional logistic regression to estimate the odds ratios (ORs) of breast cancer at blood collection, per one standard deviation increase in biomarker concentration. Results Cases were diagnosed at a mean age of 61.4 years on average 8.6 years after blood collection. No statistically significant association was observed between inflammatory markers and breast cancer risk overall. In premenopausal women, borderline significant inverse associations were observed for leptin, leptin-to-adiponectin ratio and CRP [OR= 0.89 (0.77–1.03), OR= 0.88 (0.76–1.01) and OR= 0.87 (0.75–1.01), respectively] while positive associations were observed among postmenopausal women [OR= 1.16 (1.05–1.29), OR= 1.11 (1.01–1.23), OR= 1.10 (0.99–1.22), respectively]. Adjustment for BMI strengthened the estimates in premenopausal women [leptin: OR = 0.83 (0.68–1.00), leptin-to-adiponectin ratio: OR = 0.80 (0.66–0.97), CRP: OR = 0.85 (0.72–1.00)] but attenuated the estimates in postmenopausal women [leptin: OR = 1.09 (0.96–1.24), leptin-to-adiponectin ratio: OR = 1.02 (0.89–1.16), CRP: OR = 1.04 (0.92–1.16)]. Conclusions Associations between CRP, leptin and leptin-to-adiponectin ratio with breast cancer risk may represent the dual effect of obesity by menopausal status although this deserves further investigation.

Summary: Background: The causal relevance of polyunsaturated fatty acids (PUFAs) for risk of site-specific cancers remains uncertain. Methods: Using a Mendelian randomization (MR) framework, we assessed the causal relevance of PUFAs for risk of cancer in European and East Asian ancestry individuals. We defined the primary exposure as PUFA desaturase activity, proxied by rs174546 at the FADS locus. Secondary exposures were defined as omega 3 and omega 6 PUFAs that could be proxied by genetic polymorphisms outside the FADS region. Our study used summary genetic data on 10 PUFAs and 67 cancers, corresponding to 562,871 cases and 1,619,465 controls, collected by the Fatty Acids in Cancer Mendelian Randomization Collaboration. We estimated odds ratios (ORs) for cancer per standard deviation increase in genetically proxied PUFA exposures. Findings: Genetically elevated PUFA desaturase activity was associated (P

Abstract Background Mechanisms underlying the adiposity–cancer relationship are incompletely understood. We quantified the mediating roles of C‐reactive protein (CRP), leptin, fasting insulin, and estradiol in the effect of adiposity on estrogen receptor (ER)‐positive breast, endometrial, and colorectal cancer risk in postmenopausal women. Methods We used a case–cohort study within the Women's Health Initiative Observational Study, analyzed as a cumulative sampling case–control study. The study included 188 breast cancer cases, 98 endometrial cancer cases, 193 colorectal cancer cases, and 285 controls. Interventional indirect and direct effects on the risk ratio (RR) scale were estimated using causal mediation analysis. Results For breast cancer, the total effect RR for BMI ≥30 versus ≥18.5–

Abstract Background Greater maternal adiposity before or during pregnancy is associated with greater offspring adiposity throughout childhood, but the extent to which this is due to causal intrauterine or periconceptional mechanisms remains unclear. Here, we use Mendelian randomisation (MR) with polygenic risk scores (PRS) to investigate whether associations between maternal pre-/early pregnancy body mass index (BMI) and offspring adiposity from birth to adolescence are causal. Methods We undertook confounder adjusted multivariable (MV) regression and MR using mother-offspring pairs from two UK cohorts: Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children (ALSPAC) and Born in Bradford (BiB). In ALSPAC and BiB, the outcomes were birthweight (BW; N = 9339) and BMI at age 1 and 4 years (N = 8659 to 7575). In ALSPAC only we investigated BMI at 10 and 15 years (N = 4476 to 4112) and dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) determined fat mass index (FMI) from age 10–18 years (N = 2659 to 3855). We compared MR results from several PRS, calculated from maternal non-transmitted alleles at between 29 and 80,939 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs). Results MV and MR consistently showed a positive association between maternal BMI and BW, supporting a moderate causal effect. For adiposity at most older ages, although MV estimates indicated a strong positive association, MR estimates did not support a causal effect. For the PRS with few SNPs, MR estimates were statistically consistent with the null, but had wide confidence intervals so were often also statistically consistent with the MV estimates. In contrast, the largest PRS yielded MR estimates with narrower confidence intervals, providing strong evidence that the true causal effect on adolescent adiposity is smaller than the MV estimates (P difference = 0.001 for 15-year BMI). This suggests that the MV estimates are affected by residual confounding, therefore do not provide an accurate indication of the causal effect size. Conclusions Our results suggest that higher maternal pre-/early-pregnancy BMI is not a key driver of higher adiposity in the next generation. Thus, they support interventions that target the whole population for reducing overweight and obesity, rather than a specific focus on women of reproductive age.