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Background People with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) (PWH) may be at increased risk for severe coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) outcomes. We examined HIV status and COVID-19 severity, and whether tenofovir, used by PWH for HIV treatment and people without HIV (PWoH) for HIV prevention, was associated with protection. Methods Within 6 cohorts of PWH and PWoH in the United States, we compared the 90-day risk of any hospitalization, COVID-19 hospitalization, and mechanical ventilation or death by HIV status and by prior exposure to tenofovir, among those with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 infection between 1 March and 30 November 2020. Adjusted risk ratios (aRRs) were estimated by targeted maximum likelihood estimation, with adjustment for demographics, cohort, smoking, body mass index, Charlson comorbidity index, calendar period of first infection, and CD4 cell counts and HIV RNA levels (in PWH only). Results Among PWH (n = 1785), 15% were hospitalized for COVID-19 and 5% received mechanical ventilation or died, compared with 6% and 2%, respectively, for PWoH (n = 189 351). Outcome prevalence was lower for PWH and PWoH with prior tenofovir use. In adjusted analyses, PWH were at increased risk compared with PWoH for any hospitalization (aRR, 1.31 [95% confidence interval, 1.20–1.44]), COVID-19 hospitalizations (1.29 [1.15–1.45]), and mechanical ventilation or death (1.51 [1.19–1.92]). Prior tenofovir use was associated with reduced hospitalizations among PWH (aRR, 0.85 [95% confidence interval, .73–.99]) and PWoH (0.71 [.62–.81]). Conclusions Before COVID-19 vaccine availability, PWH were at greater risk for severe outcomes than PWoH. Tenofovir was associated with a significant reduction in clinical events for both PWH and PWoH.

Background Many transgender persons seek hormone therapy to reduce gender dysphoria and improve quality of life, but little is known about patient satisfaction with current gender-affirming hormone therapy. Aim To examine patient satisfaction with current gender-affirming hormone therapy and patients’ goals of additional hormone therapy. Methods Transgender adults in the validated multicenter STRONG cohort (Study of Transition, Outcomes, and Gender) were asked to complete a cross-sectional survey about current and planned hormone therapy and the effects that they experienced or hoped to gain. The proportion of respondents reporting overall satisfaction with hormone therapy were compared with χ2 or Fisher exact test. Cochran-Mantel-Haenszel analysis was used to compare the covariates of interest while controlling for age at the time of survey completion. Outcomes Patient satisfaction across hormone therapies, each measured with a 5-point scale, was averaged and dichotomized. Results Out of 2136 eligible transgender adults, 696 (33%) completed the survey: 350 transfeminine (TF) and 346 transmasculine (TM) respondents. Most participants (80%) were satisfied or very satisfied with their current hormone therapies. TF participants and older participants were less likely to report being satisfied with their current hormone therapies than TM participants and younger participants, respectively. However, TM and TF categories were not associated with patient satisfaction after controlling for age at the time of survey completion. More TF persons planned to take additional treatment. The most frequent goals for additional hormone therapy for TF persons included breast size growth, feminine body fat distribution, and facial feature softening; for TM persons, goals included diminishing dysphoria, greater muscle mass, and masculine body fat distribution. Clinical Implications Multidisciplinary care beyond provision of hormone therapy—such as involvement of surgical, dermatologic, reproductive health, mental health, and/or gender expression care—may be important to help achieve unmet gender-affirming care goals. Strengths and Limitations This study had a modest response rate and included only respondents with private insurance, limiting generalizability. Conclusion Understanding patient satisfaction and goals of care will assist shared decision making and counseling in patient-centered gender-affirming therapy.

To describe the prevalence of diagnosed depression, anxiety, bipolar disorder, and schizophrenia in people with HIV (PWH) and the differences in HIV care continuum outcomes in those with and without mental health disorders (MHDs).Observational study of participants in the North American AIDS Cohort Collaboration on Research and Design.PWH (≥18 years) contributed data on prevalent schizophrenia, anxiety, depressive, and bipolar disorders from 2008 to 2018 based on International Classification of Diseases code mapping. Mental health (MH) multimorbidity was defined as having two or more MHD. Log binomial models with generalized estimating equations estimated adjusted prevalence ratios (aPR) and 95% confidence intervals for retention in care (≥1 visit/year) and viral suppression (HIV RNA ≤200 copies/ml) by presence vs. absence of each MHD between 2016 and 2018.Among 122 896 PWH, 67 643 (55.1%) were diagnosed with one or more MHD: 39% with depressive disorders, 28% with anxiety disorders, 10% with bipolar disorder, and 5% with schizophrenia. The prevalence of depressive and anxiety disorders increased between 2008 and 2018, whereas bipolar disorder and schizophrenia remained stable. MH multimorbidity affected 24% of PWH. From 2016 to 2018 (N = 64 684), retention in care was marginally lower among PWH with depression or anxiety, however those with MH multimorbidity were more likely to be retained in care. PWH with bipolar disorder had marginally lower prevalence of viral suppression (aPR = 0.98 [0.98-0.99]) as did PWH with MH multimorbidity (aPR = 0.99 [0.99-1.00]) compared with PWH without MHD.The prevalence of MHD among PWH was high, including MH multimorbidity. Although retention and viral suppression were similar to people without MHD, viral suppression was lower in those with bipolar disorder and MH multimorbidity.

HIV is an independent risk factor for heart failure (HF). However, the association of HIV severity with incident HF and the potential interaction with sex are incompletely understood.Integrated health care system.We conducted a cohort study of people with HIV (PWH) and matched people without HIV (PWoH), all aged ≥ 21 years and with no previous HF. Poisson regression was used to compare incident HF by HIV status, with PWH stratified by severity of HIV infection [defined by recent (6 months) CD4 count, nadir CD4 count, or recent HIV RNA level]. Models were adjusted for sociodemographic characteristics, substance use, and HF risk factors. Analyses were conducted for men and women combined, then by sex.The study included 38,868 PWH and 386,569 PWoH (mean baseline age = 41.0 ± 10.8 years; 88% men). Compared with PWoH, incident HF risk was higher among PWH with lower recent CD4 [200-499 cells/µL, adjusted rate ratio (aRR) = 1.82, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.50 to 2.21 and200 cells/µL, aRR = 3.26 (2.47 to 4.30)] and a low nadir CD4 [200 cells/µL, aRR = 1.56 (1.37 to 1.79)] but not among PWH with normal CD4 [≥500 cells/µL, aRR = 1.14 (0.90 to 1.44)]. Higher incident HF risk was observed among PWH at all HIV RNA levels, with greater HF risk at higher HIV RNA levels. The excess HF risk associated with low CD4 (recent or nadir) and high HIV RNA was stronger among women than men (P interactions=0.05, 0.08, and 0.01, respectively).Given the association of HIV severity with HF, optimizing HIV treatment and management may be important for HF prevention among PWH.

Background The impact of adopting a race-free estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) creatinine (eGFRcr) equation on racial differences in chronic kidney disease (CKD) progression among people with human immunodeficiency virus (PWH) is unknown. Methods We defined eGFR stages using the original race-adjusted Chronic Kidney Disease Epidemiology Collaboration (CKD-EPI) eGFRcr equation and the new race-free CKD-EPI eGFRcr equation. We then estimated 5-year probabilities of transitioning from baseline kidney function to more advanced eGFR stages and examined the association of race (black vs white) with rates of CKD progression using Markov models. Results With the race-adjusted eGFRcr equation, black participants (n = 31 298) had a lower risk of progressing from eGFR stage 1 to 2 (hazard ratio [HR], 0.77; 95% confidence interval [CI], .73–.82), an equal risk of progressing from stage 2 to 3 (1.00; .92–.07) and a 3-fold risk of progressing from stage 3 to 4 or 5 (3.06; 2.60–3.62), compared with white participants (n = 27 542). When we used the race-free eGFRcr equation, 16% of black participants were reclassified into a more severe eGFR stage at baseline. The reclassified black individuals had a higher prevalence of CKD risk factors than black PWH who were not reclassified. With the race-free eGFRcr equation, black participants had a higher risk of disease progression across all eGFR stages than white participants. Conclusions The original eGFRcr equation systematically masked a subgroup of black PWH who are at high-risk of CKD progression. The new race-free eGFRcr equation unmasks these individuals and may allow for earlier detection and management of CKD.

Background Little is known about the prevalence of undiagnosed cognitive impairment and its impact on instrumental activities of daily living (IADL) among people with HIV (PWH) in primary care Setting U.S. integrated healthcare system Methods PWH were recruited from an integrated healthcare setting. PWH were eligible for recruitment if they were ≥50 years old, taking antiretroviral therapy (i.e., ≥1 ART prescription fill in the past year), and had no clinical diagnosis of dementia. Participants completed a cognitive screen (St. Louis University Mental Status exam) and a questionnaire on IADL (modified Lawton-Brody). Results Study participants (N=47) were mostly male (85.1%), 51.1% White, 25.5% Black, 17.0% Hispanic, and the average age was 59.7 years (standard deviation, SD=7.0 years). Overall, 27 (57.5%) participants were categorized as cognitively normal, 17 (36.2%) as having mild cognitive impairment, and 3 (6.4%) as having possible dementia. Of the 20 participants with mild cognitive impairment or possible dementia, 85.0% were men, the average age was 60.4 years (SD=7.1 years); 45.0% were White, 40.0% were Black, 10.0% were Hispanic, and 30.0% reported difficulty with at least one IADL. Most (66.7%) attributed difficulty with IADL primarily (33.3%) or in part (33.3%) to cognitive problems. Conclusion Undiagnosed cognitive impairment is frequent among ART-treated PWH, with possible elevated risk among Black PWH, and may be accompanied by difficulty with IADL. Efforts are needed to optimize identification of factors contributing to cognitive and IADL difficulties among ART-treated PWH in primary care.

Describe engagement in HIV care over time after initial engagement in HIV care, by gender identity.Observational, clinical cohort study of people with HIV engaged in routine HIV care across the United States.We followed people with HIV who linked to and engaged in clinical care (attending ≥2 visits in 12 months) in cohorts in the North American Transgender Cohort Collaboration, 2000-2018. Within strata of gender identity, we estimated the 7-year (84-month) restricted mean time spent: lost-to-clinic (stratified by pre/postantiretroviral therapy (ART) initiation); in care prior to ART initiation; on ART but not virally suppressed; virally suppressed (≤200 copies/ml); or dead (pre/post-ART initiation).Transgender women ( N = 482/101 841) spent an average of 35.5 out of 84 months virally suppressed (this was 30.5 months for cisgender women and 34.4 months for cisgender men). After adjustment for age, race, ethnicity, history of injection drug use, cohort, and calendar year, transgender women were significantly less likely to die than cisgender people. Cisgender women spent more time in care not yet on ART, and less time on ART and virally suppressed, but were less likely to die compared with cisgender men. Other differences were not clinically meaningful.In this sample, transgender women and cisgender people spent similar amounts of time in care and virally suppressed. Additional efforts to improve retention in care and viral suppression are needed for all people with HIV, regardless of gender identity.

Background: Over the past decade, antiretroviral therapy (ART) regimens that include integrase strand inhibitors (INSTIs) have become the most commonly used for people with HIV starting ART. Although trials and observational studies have compared virological failure on INSTI-based with other regimens, few data are available on mortality in people with HIV treated with INSTIs in routine care. Therefore, we compared all-cause mortality between different INSTI-based and non-INSTI-based regimens in adults with HIV starting ART from 2013 to 2018. Methods: This cohort study used data on people with HIV in Europe and North America from the Antiretroviral Therapy Cohort Collaboration (ART-CC) and UK Collaborative HIV Cohort (UK CHIC). We studied the most common third antiretroviral drugs (additional to nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor) used from 2013 to 2018: rilpivirine, darunavir, raltegravir, elvitegravir, dolutegravir, efavirenz, and others. Adjusted hazard ratios (aHRs; adjusted for clinical and demographic characteristics, comorbid conditions, and other drugs in the regimen) for mortality were estimated using Cox models stratified by ART start year and cohort, with multiple imputation of missing data. Findings: 62 500 ART-naive people with HIV starting ART (12 422 [19·9%] women; median age 38 [IQR 30-48]) were included in the study. 1243 (2·0%) died during 188 952 person-years of follow-up (median 3·0 years [IQR 1·6-4·4]). There was little evidence that mortality rates differed between regimens with dolutegravir, elvitegravir, rilpivirine, darunavir, or efavirenz as the third drug. However, mortality was higher for raltegravir compared with dolutegravir (aHR 1·49, 95% CI 1·15-1·94), elvitegravir (1·86, 1·43-2·42), rilpivirine (1·99, 1·49-2·66), darunavir (1·62, 1·33-1·98), and efavirenz (2·12, 1·60-2·81) regimens. Results were similar for analyses making different assumptions about missing data and consistent across the time periods 2013-15 and 2016-18. Rates of virological suppression were higher for dolutegravir than other third drugs. Interpretation: This large study of patients starting ART since the introduction of INSTIs found little evidence that mortality rates differed between most first-line ART regimens; however, raltegravir-based regimens were associated with higher mortality. Although unmeasured confounding cannot be excluded as an explanation for our findings, virological benefits of first-line INSTIs-based ART might not translate to differences in mortality. We would like to thank our funders (US National Institute on Alcohol Abuse and Alcoholism and UK Medical Research Council) and all patients and the clinical teams associated with the participating cohort studies. The antiretroviral therapy cohort collaboration is funded by the US National Institute on Alcohol Abuse and Alcoholism (U01-AA026209). UK Collaborative HIV Cohort is funded by the UK Medical Research Council (grant numbers G0000199, G0600337, G0900274, and M004236/1). JACS is funded by National Institute for Health Research Senior Investigator award (NF-SI-0611-10168). AT is funded by the Wellcome Trust under a Sir Henry Wellcome Postdoctoral Fellowship (222770/Z/21/Z). Funding for the individual antiretroviral therapy cohort collaboration cohorts included in this analysis was from Alberta Health, Gilead, National Agency for AIDS Research (France REcherche Nord&Sud Sida-hiv Hépatites), the French Ministry of Health, the Austrian Agency for Health and Food Safety, Stichting HIV Monitoring, the Dutch Ministry of Health, Welfare and Sport through the Centre for Infectious Disease Control of the National Institute for Public Health and the Environment, the TP-HIV by the German Centre for Infection Research (NCT02149004), Instituto de Salud Carlos III (through the Red Temática de Investigación Cooperativa en Sida [RD06/006, RD12/0017/0018, and RD16/0002/0006]) as part of the Plan Nacional I + D + i. Other funders of the individual cohorts participating data for this analysis are ISCIII-Subdirección General de Evaluación and the Fondo Europeo de Desarrollo Regional, ViiV Healthcare, Preben og Anna Simonsens Fond, ANRS-Maladies infectieuses émergentes, Institut National de la Santé et de la Recherche Médicale (INSERM), Bristol Myers Squibb, Janssen, Merck, the US National Institute on Alcohol Abuse and Alcoholism (U01-AA026230), the Spanish Ministry of Health, the Swiss National Science Foundation (grant 33CS30_134277), Centers for AIDS Research Network of Integrated Clinical Systems (1R24 AI067039-1, P30-AI-027757), the US Department of Veterans Affairs, the US National Institute on Alcohol Abuse and Alcoholism (U01-AA026224, U01-AA026209, U24-AA020794), the Veterans Health Administration Office of Research and Development, and the US National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (Tennessee Center for AIDS Research P30 AI110527). Sí

There are no studies comparing the prognosis for mature T-cell lymphoma (TCL) in people with HIV (PWH) to people without HIV (PWoH) and to AIDS-defining B-cell lymphomas (A-BCLs) in the modern antiretroviral therapy era. North American AIDS Cohort Collaboration on Research and Design and Comprehensive Oncology Measures for Peripheral T-cell Lymphoma Treatment are cohorts that enroll patients diagnosed with HIV and TCL, respectively. In our study, 52, 64, 101, 500, and 246 PWH with histologic confirmation of TCL, primary central nervous system lymphoma, Burkitt’s lymphoma, diffuse large B-cell lymphoma (DLBCL), and Hodgkin’s lymphoma (HL), respectively, and 450 TCLs without HIV were eligible for analysis. At the time of TCL diagnosis, anaplastic large-cell lymphoma (ALCL) was the most common TCL subtype within PWH. Although PWH with TCL diagnosed between 1996 and 2009 experienced a low 5-year survival probability at 0.23 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.13, 0.41), we observed a marked improvement in their survival when diagnosed between 2010 and 2016 (0.69; 95% CI: 0.48, 1; P = .04) in contrast to TCLs among PWoH (0.45; 95% CI: 0.41, 0.51; P = .53). Similarly, PWH with ALCLs diagnosed between 1996 and 2009 were associated with a conspicuously inferior 5-year survival probability (0.17; 95% CI: 0.07, 0.42) and consistently lagged behind A-BCL subtypes such as Burkitt’s (0.43; 95% CI:0.33, 0.57; P = .09) and DLBCL (0.17; 95% CI: 0.06, 0.46; P = .11) and behind HL (0.57; 95% CI: 0.50, 0.65; P < .0001). Despite a small number, those diagnosed between 2010 and 2016 experienced a remarkable improvement in survival (0.67; 95% CI: 0.3, 1) in comparison with PWoH (0.76; 95% CI: 0.66, 0.87; P = .58). Thus, our analysis confirms improved overall survival for aggressive B- and T-cell malignancies among PWH in the last decade.

Screening for oral leukoplakia, an oral cavity cancer (OCC) precursor, could lead to earlier detection of OCC. However, the progression rate from leukoplakia to OCC and the benefits of leukoplakia screening for improving OCC outcomes are currently unclear. We conducted a case–cohort study of U.S. adults ages ≥65 years in the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER)-Medicare linkage. We identified leukoplakia diagnoses through Medicare claims, and OCC diagnoses through SEER cancer registries. Weighted Cox regression was used to estimate leukoplakia associations with OCC incidence, and the absolute OCC risk following leukoplakia diagnosis was calculated. Among OCC cases, we compared OCC stage and OCC survival between cases with a prior leukoplakia diagnosis versus those without prior leukoplakia. Among 470,266 individuals in the SEER-Medicare subcohort, 1,526 (0.3%) had a leukoplakia diagnosis. Among people with leukoplakia, the cumulative OCC incidence was 0.7% at 3 months and 2.5% at 5 years. OCC risk was most increased N = 8,927), those with prior leukoplakia were less likely to be diagnosed at regional/distant stage (OR, 0.36; 95% CI, 0.30–0.43), and had lower mortality (HR, 0.74; 95% CI, 0.65–0.84) when compared with OCC cases without a prior leukoplakia. Individuals with leukoplakia have substantially elevated risk of OCC. Lower stage and better survival after OCC diagnosis suggest that leukoplakia identification can lead to earlier OCC detection and reduced mortality. Cancer Prev Res; 8(9); 857–63. ©2015 AACR.

Supplementary Tables 1 & 2. Table 1: Comparison of American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) stage to SEER historic stage within the SEER database. Table 2: Primary treatment for oral cavity cancer cases.

Background: Given the limited literature, we conducted a study to examine the epidemiology of herpes zoster (HZ) among newly diagnosed cancer patients.Methods: We identified adult health plan members of Kaiser Permanente Northern California diagnosed with invasive cancer from 2001 to 2005. Electronic health records with inpatient and outpatient diagnoses, laboratory tests, and antiviral medications were used to identify HZ diagnoses from 2001 to 2006. HZ diagnoses and associated complications were confirmed by medical chart review. Treatment with chemotherapy and corticosteroids was used to classify patients by immunosuppression level.Results: Among 14,670 cancer patients, 424 were diagnosed with HZ during follow-up (median 22 months). The incidence of HZ was 31/1,000 person-year (PY) in patients with hematologic malignancies and 12/1,000 PY in patients with solid tumors. The corresponding 2-year cumulative incidence of HZ was approximately 6% and 2%, respectively. Compared with incidence rates of HZ reported in a general US population, the age- and sex-standardized rates of HZ were 4.8 times higher [95% confidence interval (CI), 4.0–5.6] in patients with hematologic malignancies and 1.9 times higher (95% CI, 1.7–2.1) in those with solid tumors. HZ risk increased with increasing level of immunosuppression. Among HZ cases, 19% with hematologic malignancies and 14% with solid tumors had HZ-associated pain for at least 30 days. The corresponding numbers for nonpain-related complications were 30% and 18%, respectively.Conclusions: Cancer patients are at substantially increased risk of HZ and among those with HZ, complications are relatively common.Impact: Better HZ prevention and treatment options for cancer patients are needed. Cancer Epidemiol Biomarkers Prev; 22(1); 82–90. ©2012 AACR.

PDF file - 83K, This supplementary document describes methods used to create an algorithm for classifying patients' level of immunosuppression

In first-line antiretroviral therapy (ART) for human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) treatment, some subgroups of patients may respond better to an efavirenz-based regimen than an integrase strand transfer inhibitor (InSTI)-based regimen, or vice versa, due to patient characteristics modifying treatment effects. Using data based on nearly 16,000 patients from the North American AIDS Cohort Collaboration on Research and Design from 2009–2016, statistical methods for precision medicine were employed to estimate an optimal treatment rule that minimizes the 5-year risk of the composite outcome of acquired immune deficiency syndrome (AIDS)-defining illnesses, serious non-AIDS events, and all-cause mortality. The treatment rules considered were functions that recommend either an efavirenz- or InSTI-based regimen conditional on baseline patient characteristics such as demographic information, laboratory results, and health history. The estimated 5-year risk under the estimated optimal treatment rule was 10.0% (95% confidence interval (CI): 8.6, 11.3), corresponding to an absolute risk reduction of 2.3% (95% CI: 0.9, 3.8) when compared with recommending an efavirenz-based regimen for all patients and 2.6% (95% CI: 1.0, 4.2) when compared with recommending an InSTI-based regimen for all. Tailoring ART to individual patient characteristics may reduce 5-year risk of the composite outcome compared with assigning all patients the same drug regimen.

Background Influenza vaccination is recommended for adults regardless of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) status. There may be facilitators or barriers to vaccinating people with HIV (PWH) that differ from people without HIV (PWoH). We sought to describe the uptake of influenza vaccination by HIV status and identify factors associated with vaccination. Methods We abstracted data from the electronic health records of PWH and PWoH in Kaiser Permanente Northern California during 6 influenza seasons (2013–2018). We determined vaccination uptake and used Poisson regression models to evaluate factors associated with vaccination in PWH and PWoH. Results 9272 PWH and 194 393 PWoH matched by age, sex, and race/ethnicity were included (mean age: 48 vs 49 years; men: 91% vs 90%; White race: 53% for both groups). PWH were more likely to receive the influenza vaccine (65–69% across years for PWH and 37–41% for PWoH) with an adjusted risk ratio for all years of 1.48 (95% CI: 1.46–1.50). For PWH, lower vaccination uptake was associated with several factors that suggested more complex health needs, such as lower CD4 cell counts, higher HIV viral loads, prior depression diagnoses, having Medicare insurance, and having a higher number of comorbidities. Associations with vaccination uptake were attenuated in PWH, compared with PWoH, for smoking, alcohol, and demographic factors. Conclusions PWH had an almost 50% higher uptake of influenza vaccination than PWoH, possibly reflecting greater engagement with the healthcare system. We also found that PWH with more complex health needs had reduced vaccination uptake. Findings may inform outreach strategies to increase influenza vaccination in PWH.

Background The age-distribution of men who have sex with men (MSM) continues to change in the ‘Treat-All’ era as effective test-and-treat programs target key-populations. However, the nature of these changes and potential racial heterogeneities remain uncertain. Methods The PEARL model is an agent-based simulation of MSM in HIV care in the US, calibrated to data from the North American AIDS Cohort Collaboration on Research and Design (NA-ACCORD). Results PEARL projects a gradual decrease in median age of MSM at ART initiation from 36 to 31 years during 2010–2030, accompanied by changes in mortality among Black, White, and Hispanic MSM on ART by -8.4%, 42.4% and -19.6%. The median age of all MSM on ART is projected to increase from 45 to 47 years from 2010–2030, with the proportion of ART-users age ≥60y increasing from 6.7% to 28.0%. Almost half (49.7%) of White MSM ART-users are projected to age ≥60y by 2030, compared to 19.5% of Black and 17.2% of Hispanic MSM. Conclusions The overall age of US MSM in HIV care is expected to increase over the next decade, and differentially by race/ethnicity. As this population age, HIV programs should expand care for age-related causes of morbidity and mortality.

BACKGROUND: People with HIV (PWH) have a higher hospitalization rate than the general population. The Veterans Aging Cohort Study (VACS) Index at study entry well predicts hospitalization in PWH, but it is unknown if the time-updated parameter improves hospitalization prediction. We assessed the association of parameterizations of the VACS Index 2.0 with the 5-year risk of hospitalization. SETTING: PWH ≥ 30 years old with at least 12 months of antiretroviral therapy (ART) use, and contributing hospitalization data from 2000 to 2016 in North American AIDS Cohort Collaboration on Research and Design (NA-ACCORD) were included. Three parameterizations of the VACS Index 2.0 were assessed and categorized by quartile: 1) “baseline” measurement at study entry, 2) time-updated measurements, and 3) cumulative scores calculated using the trapezoidal rule. METHODS: Discrete-time proportional hazard models estimated the crude and adjusted associations (and 95% confidence intervals [CI]) of the VACS Index parameterizations and all-cause hospitalizations. The Akaike information criterion (AIC) assessed the model fit with each of the VACS Index parameters. RESULTS: Among 7,289 patients, 1,537 were hospitalized. Time-updated VACS Index fitted hospitalization best with a more distinct dose-response relationship (score

PURPOSE Despite effective antiretroviral therapy, rates of end-stage liver disease (ESLD) remain high. It is not clear whether contemporary antiretrovirals contribute to the risk of ESLD. METHODS We included patients from cohorts with validated ESLD data in the North American AIDS Cohort Collaboration on Research and Design. Patients had to initiate antiretroviral therapy after 1 January 2004 with a nucleos(t)ide backbone of either abacavir/lamivudine or tenofovir/emtricitabine and a contemporary third (anchor) drug. Patients were followed until a first ESLD event, death, end of a cohort's ESLD validation period, loss to follow-up or 31 December 2015. We estimated associations between cumulative exposure to each drug and ESLD using a hierarchical Bayesian survival model with weakly informative prior distributions. RESULTS Among 10 564 patients included from 12 cohorts, 62 had an ESLD event. Of the nine anchor drugs, boosted protease inhibitors atazanavir and darunavir had the strongest signals for ESLD, with increasing hazard ratios (HR) and narrowing credible intervals (CrI), from a prior HR of 1.5 (95% CrI 0.32-7.1) per 5 year's exposure to posterior HRs respectively of 1.8 (95% CrI 0.82-3.9) and 2.0 (95% CrI 0.86-4.7). Both backbones and efavirenz showed no signal. Hepatitis C coinfection was the most important covariate risk factor (HR 4.4, 95% CrI 2.6-7.0). CONCLUSIONS While contemporary antiretrovirals pose less risk for ESLD than hepatitis coinfection, atazanavir and darunavir had a toxicity signal. We show how hierarchical Bayesian modelling can be used to detect toxicity signals in cohort event monitoring data even with complex treatments and few events.

OBJECTIVE To project the future age distribution of people with HIV using antiretroviral therapy (ART) in the US, under expected trends in HIV diagnosis and survival (baseline scenario) and achieving the Ending the HIV Epidemic (EHE) goals of a 75% reduction in HIV diagnoses from 2020-25 and sustaining levels to 2030 (EHE75% scenario). DESIGN An agent-based simulation model with mathematical functions estimated from North American AIDS Cohort Collaboration on Research and Design data and parameters from the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's annual HIV surveillance reports. METHODS The PEARL (ProjEcting Age, multimoRbidity, and poLypharmacy in adults with HIV) model simulated individuals in 15 subgroups of sex-and-HIV acquisition risk and race/ethnicity. Simulation outcomes from the baseline scenario are compared with outcomes from the EHE75% scenario. RESULTS Under the baseline scenario, PEARL projects a substantial increase in number of ART-users over time, reaching a population of 909,638 [95%uncertaintyrange(UR):878,449-946,513] by 2030. The overall median age increased from 50 years (y) in 2020 to 52y in 2030, with 23% of ART-users age ≥65y in 2030. Under the EHE75% scenario, the projected number of ART-users was 718,348 [703,044-737,817] (median age=56y) in 2030, with a 70% relative reduction in ART-users

ImportanceIntegrase strand transfer inhibitor (INSTI)–containing antiretroviral therapy (ART) is currently the guideline-recommended first-line treatment for HIV. Delayed prescription of INSTI-containing ART may amplify differences and inequities in health outcomes.ObjectivesTo estimate racial and ethnic differences in the prescription of INSTI-containing ART among adults newly entering HIV care in the US and to examine variation in these differences over time in relation to changes in treatment guidelines.Design, Setting, and ParticipantsRetrospective observational study of 42 841 adults entering HIV care from October 12, 2007, when the first INSTI was approved by the US Food and Drug Administration, to April 30, 2019, at more than 200 clinical sites contributing to the North American AIDS Cohort Collaboration on Research and Design.ExposuresCombined race and ethnicity as reported in patient medical records.Main Outcomes and MeasuresProbability of initial prescription of ART within 1 month of care entry and probability of being prescribed INSTI-containing ART. Differences among non-Hispanic Black and Hispanic patients compared with non-Hispanic White patients were estimated by calendar year and time period in relation to changes in national guidelines on the timing of treatment initiation and recommended initial treatment regimens.ResultsOf 41 263 patients with information on race and ethnicity, 19 378 (47%) as non-Hispanic Black, 6798 (16%) identified as Hispanic, and 13 539 (33%) as non-Hispanic White; 36 394 patients (85%) were male, and the median age was 42 years (IQR, 30 to 51). From 2007-2015, when guidelines recommended treatment initiation based on CD4+ cell count, the probability of ART initiation within 1 month of care entry was 45% among White patients, 45% among Black patients (difference, 0% [95% CI, −1% to 1%]), and 51% among Hispanic patients (difference, 5% [95% CI, 4% to 7%]). From 2016-2019, when guidelines strongly recommended treating all patients regardless of CD4+ cell count, this probability increased to 66% among White patients, 68% among Black patients (difference, 2% [95% CI, −1% to 5%]), and 71% among Hispanic patients (difference, 5% [95% CI, 1% to 9%]). INSTIs were prescribed to 22% of White patients and only 17% of Black patients (difference, −5% [95% CI, −7% to −4%]) and 17% of Hispanic patients (difference, −5% [95% CI, −7% to −3%]) from 2009-2014, when INSTIs were approved as initial therapy but were not yet guideline recommended. Significant differences persisted for Black patients (difference, −6% [95% CI, −8% to −4%]) but not for Hispanic patients (difference, −1% [95% CI, −4% to 2%]) compared with White patients from 2014-2017, when INSTI-containing ART was a guideline-recommended option for initial therapy; differences by race and ethnicity were not statistically significant from 2017-2019, when INSTI-containing ART was the single recommended initial therapy for most people with HIV.Conclusions and RelevanceAmong adults entering HIV care within a large US research consortium from 2007-2019, the 1-month probability of ART prescription was not significantly different across most races and ethnicities, although Black and Hispanic patients were significantly less likely than White patients to receive INSTI-containing ART in earlier time periods but not after INSTIs became guideline-recommended initial therapy for most people with HIV. Additional research is needed to understand the underlying racial and ethnic differences and whether the differences in prescribing were associated with clinical outcomes.

To characterize the prevalence of anemia and risk factors between 2007 and 2017 for moderate/severe anemia among people with HIV (PWH) in North America who have initiated antiretroviral therapy (ART).Observational study of participants in the North American AIDS Cohort Collaboration on Research and Design (NA-ACCORD).We estimated the annual prevalence between 1 January 2007 and 31 December 2017 of mild (11.0-12.9 g/dl men, 11.0-11.9 g/dl women), moderate (8.0-10.9 g/dl regardless of sex) and severe (8.0 g/dl regardless of sex) anemia. Poisson regression models with robust variance and general estimating equations estimated crude and adjusted prevalence ratios (aPR) with 95% confidence intervals ([-]) comparing risk factors for moderate/severe vs. no/mild anemia between 2007 and 2017.Among 73 898 PWH we observed 366 755 hemoglobin measurements following ART initiation, 37 301 (50%) had one or more measures of anemia during follow-up (mild = 17 743 [24%]; moderate = 13 383[18%]; severe = 6175 [8%]). Moderate/severe anemia was more prevalent among women, non-Hispanic Black and Hispanic PWH (vs. non-Hispanic white), those with underweight body mass index (18.5 kg/m2) and with comorbidities and coinfections. Older age had increased prevalence of moderate/severe anemia among males and decreased prevalence among females. Prevalence of moderate/severe anemia was greater among those with lower CD4+ cell count (≤200 cells/μl) [aPR = 2.11 (2.06-2.17)] unsuppressed HIV viral load (200 copies/ml) [aPR = 1.26 (1.23-1.29)] and within the first 6 months of ART initiation (vs.1 year of ART) [aPR = 1.66 (1.61-1.72)].The prevalence of anemia among PWH is reduced after ART initiation but remains high. Risk factors differ by sex and include comorbidities and HIV disease severity. The persistent, substantial prevalence of anemia among PWH merits further investigation, targeted screening, and clinical interventions.

ImportanceEstimating the medical complexity of people aging with HIV can inform clinical programs and policy to meet future healthcare needs.ObjectiveTo project the prevalence of comorbidities and multimorbidity among people with HIV (PWH) using antiretroviral therapy (ART) in the US through 2030.DesignAgent-based simulation modelSettingHIV clinics in the United States in the recent past (2020) and near future (2030)ParticipantsIn 2020, 674,531 PWH were using ART; 9% were men and 4% women with history of injection drug use; 60% were men who have sex with men (MSM); 8% were heterosexual men and 19% heterosexual women; 44% were non-Hispanic Black/African American (Black); 32% were non-Hispanic White (White); and 23% were Hispanic.Exposure(s)Demographic and HIV acquisition risk subgroupsMain Outcomes and MeasuresProjected prevalence of anxiety, depression, stage ≥3 chronic kidney disease (CKD), dyslipidemia, diabetes, hypertension, cancer, end-stage liver disease (ESLD), myocardial infarction (MI), and multimorbidity (≥2 mental or physical comorbidities, other than HIV).ResultsWe projected 914,738 PWH using ART in the US in 2030. Multimorbidity increased from 58% in 2020 to 63% in 2030. The prevalence of depression and/or anxiety was high and increased from 60% in 2020 to 64% in 2030. Hypertension and dyslipidemia decreased, diabetes and CKD increased, MI increased steeply, but there was little change in cancer and ESLD. Among Black women with history of injection drug use (oldest demographic subgroup in 2030), CKD, anxiety, hypertension, and depression were most prevalent and 93% were multimorbid. Among Black MSM (youngest demographic subgroup in 2030), depression was highly prevalent, followed by hypertension and 48% were multimorbid. Comparatively, 67% of White MSM were multimorbid in 2030 (median age in 2030=59 years) and anxiety, depression, dyslipidemia, CKD, and hypertension were highly prevalent.Conclusion and relevanceThe distribution of multimorbidity will continue to differ by race/ethnicity, gender, and HIV acquisition risk subgroups, and be influenced by age and risk factor distributions that reflect the impact of social disparities of the health on women, people of color, and people who use drugs. HIV clinical care models and funding are urgently required to meet the healthcare needs of people with HIV in the next decade.KEY POINTSQuestionHow will the prevalence of multimorbidity change among people with HIV (PWH) using antiretroviral therapy in the US from 2020 to 2030?FindingsIn this agent-based simulation study using data from the NA-ACCORD and the CDC, multimorbidity (≥2 mental/physical comorbidities other than HIV) will increase from 58% in 2020 to 63% in 2030. The composition of comorbidities among multimorbid PWH vary by race/ethnicity, gender, and HIV acquisition risk group.MeaningHIV clinical programs and policy makers must act now to identify resources and care models to meet the increasingly complex medical needs of PWH over time, particularly mental healthcare needs.

Integrase strand transfer inhibitor (InSTI)-based regimens have been recommended as first-line antiretroviral therapy (ART) for adults with HIV. But data on long-term effects of InSTI-based regimens on virologic outcomes remain limited. Here we examined whether InSTI improved long-term virologic outcomes compared with efavirenz (EFV).We included adults from the North American AIDS Cohort Collaboration on Research and Design who initiated their first ART regimen containing either InSTI or EFV between 2009 and 2016. We estimated differences in the proportion virologically suppressed up to 7 years of follow-up in observational intention-to-treat and per-protocol analyses.Of 15 318 participants, 5519 (36%) initiated an InSTI-based regimen and 9799 (64%) initiated the EFV-based regimen. In observational intention-to-treat analysis, 81.3% of patients in the InSTI group and 67.3% in the EFV group experienced virologic suppression at 3 months after ART initiation, corresponding to a difference of 14.0% (95% CI 12.4-15.6). At 1 year after ART initiation, the proportion virologically suppressed was 89.5% in the InSTI group and 90.2% in the EFV group, corresponding to a difference of -0.7% (95% CI -2.1 to 0.8). At 7 years, the proportion virologically suppressed was 94.5% in the InSTI group and 92.5% in the EFV group, corresponding to a difference of 2.0% (95% CI -7.3 to 11.3). The observational per-protocol results were similar to intention-to-treat analyses.Although InSTI-based initial ART regimens had more rapid virologic response than EFV-based regimens, the long-term virologic effect was similar. Our findings may inform guidelines regarding preferred initial regimens for HIV treatment.

Background Understanding advances in the care and treatment of adults with HIV as well as remaining gaps requires comparing differences in mortality between persons entering care for HIV and the general population. Objective To assess the extent to which mortality among persons entering HIV care in the United States is elevated over mortality among matched persons in the general U.S. population and trends in this difference over time. Design Observational cohort study. Setting Thirteen sites from the U.S. North American AIDS Cohort Collaboration on Research and Design. Participants 82 766 adults entering HIV clinical care between 1999 and 2017 and a subset of the U.S. population matched on calendar time, age, sex, race/ethnicity, and county using U.S. mortality and population data compiled by the National Center for Health Statistics. Measurements Five-year all-cause mortality, estimated using the Kaplan-Meier estimator of the survival function. Results Overall 5-year mortality among persons entering HIV care was 10.6%, and mortality among the matched U.S. population was 2.9%, for a difference of 7.7 (95% CI, 7.4 to 7.9) percentage points. This difference decreased over time, from 11.1 percentage points among those entering care between 1999 and 2004 to 2.7 percentage points among those entering care between 2011 and 2017. Limitation Matching on available covariates may have failed to account for differences in mortality that were due to sociodemographic factors rather than consequences of HIV infection and other modifiable factors. Conclusion Mortality among persons entering HIV care decreased dramatically between 1999 and 2017, although those entering care remained at modestly higher risk for death in the years after starting care than comparable persons in the general U.S. population. Primary funding source National Institutes of Health.

Background The effect of gender affirming hormone therapy (GAHT) on clinical laboratory parameters, including levels of liver enzymes alanine aminotransferase (ALT) and aspartate transaminase (AST), is an area of uncertainty in transgender health. Aim We sought to estimate the distribution parameters of liver enzyme levels among transmasculine (TM) and transfeminine (TF) persons receiving GAHT relative to the corresponding measures in cisgender reference groups, and to evaluate longitudinal changes in these laboratory measures following GAHT initiation. Methods The data for this longitudinal study included 624 TF and 438 transmasculine (TM) people as well as 4,090 cisgender males and 4,797 cisgender females enrolled in 3 integrated health systems. Time under observation was divided into 2 intervals: from the first blood test to the date of the first filled GAHT prescription and from GAHT initiation to the most recent ALT or AST measurement. Linear mixed models were used to compare changes in log-transformed ALT and AST values among transgender cohort members before and after GAHT initiation, and relative to the reference groups. The results were expressed as relative differences (in %) and the ratios of these differences (ratios-of-ratios) along with the 95% confidence intervals (CIs). Outcomes Changes in ALT and AST levels among transgender people over time and relative to the corresponding changes in cisgender referents. RESULTS Among TM study participants, the post GAHT ratios-of-ratios for AST were 1.61 (95% CI: 1.13, 2.31) and 1.57 (95% CI: 1.06, 2.31) relative to cisgender males and females respectively. For ALT, the corresponding comparisons yielded the ratios-of-ratios (95% CIs) of 2.06 (1.67, 2.54) and 1.90 (1.50, 2.40). No statistically significant changes were observed among TF participants. Other factors associated with higher liver enzyme levels included alcohol use/abuse and obesity. Clinical Implications TM persons may experience modest increases in ALT and AST concentrations following testosterone initiation; however, clinical significance of the observed association remains unclear and requires further investigation. By contrast, feminizing GAHT is unlikely to induce appreciable changes in liver enzyme levels. Strength and Limitations The strengths of this study are the longitudinal design and the ability to assemble an unselected cohort nested within large health systems. The main limitations include the lack of information on hormone levels and the inability to take into account GAHT doses and routes of administration. CONCLUSION The influence of long-term GAHT on ALT and AST levels appears modest and not likely to reflect clinically meaningful changes in liver function.

Background Studies suggest lower risk of breast cancer in women with HIV versus without HIV. These estimates may be biased by lower life expectancy and younger age distribution of women with HIV. Our analysis evaluated this bias and characterized secular trends in breast cancer among women with HIV initiating antiretroviral therapy. We hypothesized breast cancer risk would increase over time as mortality decreased. Setting Women with HIV prescribed antiretroviral therapy in the North American AIDS Cohort Collaboration on Research and Design (NA-ACCORD) from 1997 through 2016. Methods We estimated breast cancer hazard (cause-specific hazard ratios) and cumulative incidence accounting for competing risks (subdistribution hazard ratios) to assess changes in breast cancer risk over time. This was assessed overall (1997-2016) and within/across calendar periods. Analyses were adjusted for race/ethnicity and inverse probability weighted for cohort. Cumulative incidence was graphically assessed by calendar period and race/ethnicity. Results We observed 11,587 women during 1997-2016, contributing 63 incident breast cancer diagnoses and 1,353 deaths [73,445 person-years (median follow-up = 4.5 years)]. Breast cancer cumulative incidence was 3.2% for 1997-2016. We observed no secular trends in breast cancer hazard or cumulative incidence. There were annual declines in the hazard and cumulative incidence of death (cause-specific hazard ratios and subdistribution hazard ratios: 0.89, 95% confidence interval: 0.87 to 0.91) which remained within and across calendar periods. Conclusions These findings contradict the hypothesis of increasing breast cancer risk with declining mortality over time among women with HIV, suggesting limited impact of changing mortality on breast cancer risk. Additional inquiry is merited as survival improves among women with HIV.

Objective To examine temporal changes in the number and demographic composition of transgender/gender non-binary (TGNB) population using data from integrated health care systems. Methods Electronic health records from Kaiser Permanente health plans in Georgia and Northern and Southern California were used to identify TGNB individuals, who sought care from January 2006 to December 2014, and the data were analyzed by year, site, age, and sex assigned at birth. Results In 2006, the number of TGNB people (and corresponding 95% CI) per 100 000 population were 3.5 (1.9, 6.3) in Georgia, 5.5 (4.8, 6.4) in Southern California, and 17 (16, 19) in Northern California. In 2014, these frequencies increased to 38 (32, 45), 44 (42, 46), and 75 (72, 78) per 100 000 population, respectively. When analyzed by age, the most rapid increase was observed among persons 18 to 25 years old, and this increase accelerated after 2010. The ratio of transmasculine to transfeminine persons also changed from 1:1.7 in 2006 to 1:1 in 2014 overall and from 1:1 in 2006 to 1.8:1 in 2014 among persons Conclusion This analysis confirms previous observations that the proportion of TGNB people is growing, especially among young adults. The composition of the TGNB population is also changing from predominantly transfeminine to roughly 1:1 overall and to predominantly transmasculine in children and adolescents.

OBJECTIVE To examine recent trends and differences in all-cause and cause-specific hospitalization rates by race, ethnicity, and gender among persons with HIV (PWH) in the United States and Canada. DESIGN HIV clinical cohort consortium. METHODS We followed PWH at least 18 years old in care 2005-2015 in six clinical cohorts. We used modified Clinical Classifications Software to categorize hospital discharge diagnoses. Incidence rate ratios (IRR) were estimated using Poisson regression with robust variances to compare racial and ethnic groups, stratified by gender, adjusted for cohort, calendar year, injection drug use history, and annually updated age, CD4+, and HIV viral load. RESULTS Among 27 085 patients (122 566 person-years), 80% were cisgender men, 1% transgender, 43% White, 33% Black, 17% Hispanic of any race, and 1% Indigenous. Unadjusted all-cause hospitalization rates were higher for Black [IRR 1.46, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.32-1.61] and Indigenous (1.99, 1.44-2.74) versus White cisgender men, and for Indigenous versus White cisgender women (2.55, 1.68-3.89). Unadjusted AIDS-related hospitalization rates were also higher for Black, Hispanic, and Indigenous versus White cisgender men (all P

Accurate identification of transgender persons is a critical first step in conducting transgender health studies. To develop an automated algorithm for identifying transgender individuals from electronic medical records (EMR) using free-text clinical notes. The development and validation of the algorithm was based on data from an integrated healthcare system that served as a participating site in the multicenter Study of Transition Outcomes and Gender. The training and test datasets each contained a total of 300 individuals identified between 2006 and 2014. Both datasets underwent a full medical record review by experienced research abstractors. The validated algorithm was then implemented to identify transgender individuals in the EMR using all clinical notes of patients that received care between January 1, 2015 and June 30, 2018. Validation of the algorithm against the full chart review demonstrated a high degree of accuracy with 97% sensitivity, 95% specificity, 94% positive predictive value, and 97% negative predictive value. The algorithm classified 7,409 individuals (3.5%) as "Definitely transgender" and 679 individuals (0.3%) as "Probably transgender" out of 212,138 candidates with a total of 378,641 clinical notes. The computerized NLP algorithm can support essential efforts to improve the health of transgender people.

Background Unhealthy alcohol use among persons living with HIV (PLWH) is linked to significant morbidity and use of alcohol services may differ by HIV status. Our objective was to compare unhealthy alcohol use screening and treatment by HIV status in primary care. Methods Cohort study of adult (≥18 years) PLWH and HIV-uninfected participants frequency-matched 20:1 to PLWH by age, sex, and race/ethnicity who were enrolled in a large integrated healthcare system in the United States, with information ascertained from an electronic health record. Outcomes included unhealthy alcohol screening, prevalence, provider-delivered brief interventions and addiction specialty care visits. Other predictors included age, sex, race/ethnicity, neighborhood deprivation index, depression, smoking, substance use disorders, Charlson comorbidity index, prior outpatient visits, insurance type, and medical facility. Cox proportional hazards models were used to compute hazard ratios (HR) for the outcomes of time to unhealthy alcohol use screening and time to first addiction specialty visit. Poisson regression with robust standard errors were used to compute prevalence ratios (HR) for other outcomes. Results 11,235 PLWH and 227,320 HIV-uninfected participants were included. By 4.5 years after baseline, most participants were screened for unhealthy alcohol use (85% of PLWH and 93% of HIV-uninfected), but with a lower rate among PLWH (adjusted hazard ratio [HR] 0.84, 95% CI 0.82-0.85). PLWH were less likely, compared with HIV-uninfected participants, to report unhealthy drinking among those screened (adjusted PR 0.74, 95% CI 0.69-0.79), and among those who screened positive, less likely to receive brief interventions (adjusted PR 0.82, 95% CI 0.75-0.90), but more likely (adjusted HR 1.7, 95% CI 1.2-2.4) to have an addiction specialty visit within one year. Conclusions Unhealthy alcohol use was lower in PLWH, but the treatment approach by HIV status differed. PLWH reporting unhealthy alcohol use received less brief interventions and more addiction specialty care than HIV-uninfected participants.

INTRODUCTION: Transgender and gender diverse people often face discrimination and may experience disproportionate emotional distress, leading to suicide attempts. It is, therefore, essential to estimate the frequency and potential determinants of suicide attempts among transgender and gender diverse individuals. METHODS: Longitudinal data on 6,327 transgender and gender diverse individuals enrolled in three integrated healthcare systems were analyzed to assess suicide attempt rates. Incidence was compared in transmasculine and transfeminine people, by age and race/ethnicity and according to mental health status at baseline. Cox proportional hazards models examined rates and predictors of suicide attempts during follow-up. Data were collected in 2016 and analyses were conducted in 2019. RESULTS: During follow-up, 4.8% of transmasculine and 3.0% of transfeminine patients had at least one suicide attempt. Suicide attempt rates were more than seven times higher among patients aged 45 years, more than three times higher among those with previous history of suicide ideation or suicide attempts compared with patients with no such history, and two to five times higher among those with one to two mental health diagnoses and more than two mental health diagnoses at baseline versus those with none. CONCLUSIONS: Among transgender and gender diverse inviduals, younger people, those with prior suicidal ideation or attempts, and those with multiple mental health diagnoses are at higher risk for suicide attempts. Future research should examine the impact of gender-affirming healthcare use on risk of suicide attempts and identify targets for suicide prevention interventions among transgender and gender diverse people in clinical settings.

An internal validation substudy compares an imperfect measurement of a variable with a gold-standard measurement in a subset of the study population. Validation data permit calculation of a bias-adjusted estimate, which has the same expected value as the association that would have been observed had the gold-standard measurement been available for the entire study population. Existing guidance on optimal sampling for validation substudies assumes complete enrollment and follow-up of the target cohort. No guidance exists for validation substudy design while cohort data are actively being collected. In this article, we use the framework of Bayesian monitoring methods to develop an adaptive approach to validation study design. This method monitors whether sufficient validation data have been collected to meet predefined criteria for estimation of the positive and negative predictive values. We demonstrate the utility of this method using the Study of Transition, Outcomes and Gender-a cohort study of transgender and gender nonconforming people. We demonstrate the method's ability to determine efficacy (when sufficient validation data have accumulated to obtain estimates of the predictive values that fall above a threshold value) and futility (when sufficient validation data have accumulated to conclude the mismeasured variable is an untenable substitute for the gold-standard measurement). This proposed method can be applied within the context of any parent epidemiologic study design and modified to meet alternative criteria given specific study or validation study objectives. Our method provides a novel approach to effective and efficient estimation of classification parameters as validation data accrue.