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Abstract Background Polygenic prediction studies in continental Africans are scarce. Africa’s genetic and environmental diversity pose a challenge that limits the generalizability of polygenic risk scores (PRS) for body mass index (BMI) within the continent. Studies to understand the factors that affect PRS variability within Africa are required. Methods Using the first multi-ancestry genome-wide association study (GWAS) meta-analysis for BMI involving continental Africans, we derived a multi-ancestry PRS and compared its performance to a European ancestry-specific PRS in continental Africans (AWI-Gen study) and a European cohort (Estonian Biobank). We then evaluated the factors affecting the performance of the PRS in Africans which included fine-mapping resolution, allele frequencies, linkage disequilibrium patterns, and PRS-environment interactions. Results Polygenic prediction of BMI in continental Africans is poor compared to that in European ancestry individuals. However, we show that the multi-ancestry PRS is more predictive than the European ancestry-specific PRS due to its improved fine-mapping resolution. We noted regional variation in polygenic prediction across Africa’s East, South, and West regions, which was driven by a complex interplay of the PRS with environmental factors, such as physical activity, smoking, alcohol intake, and socioeconomic status. Conclusions Our findings highlight the role of gene-environment interactions in PRS prediction variability in Africa. PRS methods that correct for these interactions, coupled with the increased representation of Africans in GWAS, may improve PRS prediction in Africa.

Abstract Background The variability in the effectiveness of type 2 diabetes (T2D) preventive interventions highlights the potential to identify the factors that determine treatment responses and those that would benefit the most from a given intervention. We conducted a systematic review to synthesize the evidence to support whether sociodemographic, clinical, behavioral, and molecular factors modify the efficacy of dietary or lifestyle interventions to prevent T2D. Methods We searched MEDLINE, Embase, and Cochrane databases for studies reporting on the effect of a lifestyle, dietary pattern, or dietary supplement interventions on the incidence of T2D and reporting the results stratified by any effect modifier. We extracted relevant statistical findings and qualitatively synthesized the evidence for each modifier based on the direction of findings reported in available studies. We used the Diabetes Canada Clinical Practice Scale to assess the certainty of the evidence for a given effect modifier. Results The 81 publications that met our criteria for inclusion are from 33 unique trials. The evidence is low to very low to attribute variability in intervention effectiveness to individual characteristics such as age, sex, BMI, race/ethnicity, socioeconomic status, baseline behavioral factors, or genetic predisposition. Conclusions We report evidence, albeit low certainty, that those with poorer health status, particularly those with prediabetes at baseline, tend to benefit more from T2D prevention strategies compared to healthier counterparts. Our synthesis highlights the need for purposefully designed clinical trials to inform whether individual factors influence the success of T2D prevention strategies.

Abstract We evaluate the shared genetic regulation of mRNA molecules, proteins and metabolites derived from whole blood from 3029 human donors. We find abundant allelic heterogeneity, where multiple variants regulate a particular molecular phenotype, and pleiotropy, where a single variant associates with multiple molecular phenotypes over multiple genomic regions. The highest proportion of share genetic regulation is detected between gene expression and proteins (66.6%), with a further median shared genetic associations across 49 different tissues of 78.3% and 62.4% between plasma proteins and gene expression. We represent the genetic and molecular associations in networks including 2828 known GWAS variants, showing that GWAS variants are more often connected to gene expression in trans than other molecular phenotypes in the network. Our work provides a roadmap to understanding molecular networks and deriving the underlying mechanism of action of GWAS variants using different molecular phenotypes in an accessible tissue.

Abstract Background A dysregulated postprandial metabolic response is a risk factor for chronic diseases, including type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). The plasma protein N-glycome is implicated in both lipid metabolism and T2DM risk. Hence, we first investigate the relationship between the N-glycome and postprandial metabolism and then explore the mediatory role of the plasma N-glycome in the relationship between postprandial lipaemia and T2DM. Methods We included 995 individuals from the ZOE-PREDICT 1 study with plasma N-glycans measured by ultra-performance liquid chromatography at fasting and triglyceride, insulin, and glucose levels measured at fasting and following a mixed-meal challenge. Linear mixed models were used to investigate the associations between plasma protein N-glycosylation and metabolic response (fasting, postprandial (C max), or change from fasting). A mediation analysis was used to further explore the relationship of the N-glycome in the prediabetes (HbA1c = 39–47 mmol/mol (5.7–6.5%))–postprandial lipaemia association. Results We identified 36 out of 55 glycans significantly associated with postprandial triglycerides (C max β ranging from -0.28 for low-branched glycans to 0.30 for GP26) after adjusting for covariates and multiple testing (p adjusted

ABSTRACTShort-chain fatty acids (SCFA) are involved in immune system and inflammatory responses. We comprehensively assessed the host genetic and gut microbial contribution to a panel of eight serum and stool SCFAs in two cohorts (TwinsUK, n = 2507; ZOE PREDICT-1, n = 328), examined their postprandial changes and explored their links with chronic and acute inflammatory responses in healthy individuals and trauma patients. We report low concordance between circulating and fecal SCFAs, significant postprandial changes in most circulating SCFAs, and a heritable genetic component (average h2: serum = 14%(SD = 14%); stool = 12%(SD = 6%)). Furthermore, we find that gut microbiome can accurately predict their fecal levels (AUC>0.71) while presenting weaker associations with serum. Finally, we report different correlation patterns with inflammatory markers depending on the type of inflammatory response (chronic or acute trauma). Our results illustrate the breadth of the physiological relevance of SCFAs on human inflammatory and metabolic responses highlighting the need for a deeper understanding of this important class of molecules.

Abstract We identify biomarkers for disease progression in three type 2 diabetes cohorts encompassing 2,973 individuals across three molecular classes, metabolites, lipids and proteins. Homocitrulline, isoleucine and 2-aminoadipic acid, eight triacylglycerol species, and lowered sphingomyelin 42:2;2 levels are predictive of faster progression towards insulin requirement. Of ~1,300 proteins examined in two cohorts, levels of GDF15/MIC-1, IL-18Ra, CRELD1, NogoR, FAS, and ENPP7 are associated with faster progression, whilst SMAC/DIABLO, SPOCK1 and HEMK2 predict lower progression rates. In an external replication, proteins and lipids are associated with diabetes incidence and prevalence. NogoR/RTN4R injection improved glucose tolerance in high fat-fed male mice but impaired it in male db/db mice. High NogoR levels led to islet cell apoptosis, and IL-18R antagonised inflammatory IL-18 signalling towards nuclear factor kappa-B in vitro. This comprehensive, multi-disciplinary approach thus identifies biomarkers with potential prognostic utility, provides evidence for possible disease mechanisms, and identifies potential therapeutic avenues to slow diabetes progression.

Introduction: Educational attainment, widely used in epidemiologic studies as a surrogate for socioeconomic status, is a predictor of cardiovascular health outcomes.Methods: A two-stage genome-wide meta-analysis of low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL), high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL), and triglyceride (TG) levels was performed while accounting for gene-educational attainment interactions in up to 226,315 individuals from five population groups. We considered two educational attainment variables: “Some College” (yes/no, for any education beyond high school) and “Graduated College” (yes/no, for completing a 4-year college degree). Genome-wide significant (p < 5 × 10−8) and suggestive (p < 1 × 10−6) variants were identified in Stage 1 (in up to 108,784 individuals) through genome-wide analysis, and those variants were followed up in Stage 2 studies (in up to 117,531 individuals).Results: In combined analysis of Stages 1 and 2, we identified 18 novel lipid loci (nine for LDL, seven for HDL, and two for TG) by two degree-of-freedom (2 DF) joint tests of main and interaction effects. Four loci showed significant interaction with educational attainment. Two loci were significant only in cross-population analyses. Several loci include genes with known or suggested roles in adipose (FOXP1, MBOAT4, SKP2, STIM1, STX4), brain (BRI3, FILIP1, FOXP1, LINC00290, LMTK2, MBOAT4, MYO6, SENP6, SRGAP3, STIM1, TMEM167A, TMEM30A), and liver (BRI3, FOXP1) biology, highlighting the potential importance of brain-adipose-liver communication in the regulation of lipid metabolism. An investigation of the potential druggability of genes in identified loci resulted in five gene targets shown to interact with drugs approved by the Food and Drug Administration, including genes with roles in adipose and brain tissue.Discussion: Genome-wide interaction analysis of educational attainment identified novel lipid loci not previously detected by analyses limited to main genetic effects.

Background Genome-wide association studies for glycemic traits have identified hundreds of loci associated with these biomarkers of glucose homeostasis. Despite this success, the challenge remains to link variant associations to genes, and underlying biological pathways. Methods To identify coding variant associations which may pinpoint effector genes at both novel and previously established genome-wide association loci, we performed meta-analyses of exome-array studies for four glycemic traits: glycated hemoglobin (HbA1c, up to 144,060 participants), fasting glucose (FG, up to 129,665 participants), fasting insulin (FI, up to 104,140) and 2hr glucose post-oral glucose challenge (2hGlu, up to 57,878). In addition, we performed network and pathway analyses. Results Single-variant and gene-based association analyses identified coding variant associations at more than 60 genes, which when combined with other datasets may be useful to nominate effector genes. Network and pathway analyses identified pathways related to insulin secretion, zinc transport and fatty acid metabolism. HbA1c associations were strongly enriched in pathways related to blood cell biology. Conclusions Our results provided novel glycemic trait associations and highlighted pathways implicated in glycemic regulation. Exome-array summary statistic results are being made available to the scientific community to enable further discoveries.

Abstract Background Genetic variants within nearly 1000 loci are known to contribute to modulation of blood lipid levels. However, the biological pathways underlying these associations are frequently unknown, limiting understanding of these findings and hindering downstream translational efforts such as drug target discovery. Results To expand our understanding of the underlying biological pathways and mechanisms controlling blood lipid levels, we leverage a large multi-ancestry meta-analysis (N = 1,654,960) of blood lipids to prioritize putative causal genes for 2286 lipid associations using six gene prediction approaches. Using phenome-wide association (PheWAS) scans, we identify relationships of genetically predicted lipid levels to other diseases and conditions. We confirm known pleiotropic associations with cardiovascular phenotypes and determine novel associations, notably with cholelithiasis risk. We perform sex-stratified GWAS meta-analysis of lipid levels and show that 3–5% of autosomal lipid-associated loci demonstrate sex-biased effects. Finally, we report 21 novel lipid loci identified on the X chromosome. Many of the sex-biased autosomal and X chromosome lipid loci show pleiotropic associations with sex hormones, emphasizing the role of hormone regulation in lipid metabolism. Conclusions Taken together, our findings provide insights into the biological mechanisms through which associated variants lead to altered lipid levels and potentially cardiovascular disease risk.

In a prospective longitudinal study of 833 adults, we demonstrate that how you wake up and regain alertness in the hours after sleep is weakly associated with your genes. Instead, the modifiable factors of how you are sleeping, eating and exercising influence your return to full alertness, free of sleepiness.

Obesity is considered by many as a lifestyle choice rather than a chronic progressive disease. The Innovative Medicines Initiative (IMI) SOPHIA (Stratification of Obesity Phenotypes to Optimize Future Obesity Therapy) project is part of a momentum shift aiming to provide better tools for the stratification of people with obesity according to disease risk and treatment response. One of the challenges to achieving these goals is that many clinical cohorts are siloed, limiting the potential of combined data for biomarker discovery. In SOPHIA, we have addressed this challenge by setting up a federated database building on open-source DataSHIELD technology. The database currently federates 16 cohorts that are accessible via a central gateway. The database is multi-modal, including research studies, clinical trials, and routine health data, and is accessed using the R statistical programming environment where statistical and machine learning analyses can be performed at a distance without any disclosure of patient-level data. We demonstrate the use of the database by providing a proof-of-concept analysis, performing a federated linear model of BMI and systolic blood pressure, pooling all data from 16 studies virtually without any analyst seeing individual patient-level data. This analysis provided similar point estimates compared to a meta-analysis of the 16 individual studies. Our approach provides a benchmark for reproducible, safe federated analyses across multiple study types provided by multiple stakeholders.

Background Self-reported adherence to the Mediterranean diet has been modestly inversely associated with incidence of type 2 diabetes (T2D) in cohort studies. There is uncertainty about the validity and magnitude of this association due to subjective reporting of diet. The association has not been evaluated using an objectively measured biomarker of the Mediterranean diet. Methods and findings We derived a biomarker score based on 5 circulating carotenoids and 24 fatty acids that discriminated between the Mediterranean or habitual diet arms of a parallel design, 6-month partial-feeding randomised controlled trial (RCT) conducted between 2013 and 2014, the MedLey trial (128 participants out of 166 randomised). We applied this biomarker score in an observational study, the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC)-InterAct case-cohort study, to assess the association of the score with T2D incidence over an average of 9.7 years of follow-up since the baseline (1991 to 1998). We included 22,202 participants, of whom 9,453 were T2D cases, with relevant biomarkers from an original case-cohort of 27,779 participants sampled from a cohort of 340,234 people. As a secondary measure of the Mediterranean diet, we used a score estimated from dietary-self report. Within the trial, the biomarker score discriminated well between the 2 arms; the cross-validated C-statistic was 0.88 (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.82 to 0.94). The score was inversely associated with incident T2D in EPIC-InterAct: the hazard ratio (HR) per standard deviation of the score was 0.71 (95% CI: 0.65 to 0.77) following adjustment for sociodemographic, lifestyle and medical factors, and adiposity. In comparison, the HR per standard deviation of the self-reported Mediterranean diet was 0.90 (95% CI: 0.86 to 0.95). Assuming the score was causally associated with T2D, higher adherence to the Mediterranean diet in Western European adults by 10 percentiles of the score was estimated to reduce the incidence of T2D by 11% (95% CI: 7% to 14%). The study limitations included potential measurement error in nutritional biomarkers, unclear specificity of the biomarker score to the Mediterranean diet, and possible residual confounding. Conclusions These findings suggest that objectively assessed adherence to the Mediterranean diet is associated with lower risk of T2D and that even modestly higher adherence may have the potential to reduce the population burden of T2D meaningfully. Trial registration Australian New Zealand Clinical Trials Registry (ANZCTR) ACTRN12613000602729https://www.anzctr.org.au/Trial/Registration/TrialReview.aspx?id=363860. Jakub G Sobiecki and team aim to develop a biomarker score able to discriminate between Mediterranean diet and habitual diet, and test its association with incident type 2 diabetes in a European cohort. Author summary Why was this study done? Epidemiological evidence has indicated that greater self-reported adherence to the Mediterranean diet may be associated with lower risk of new onset type 2 diabetes (T2D), but there has been uncertainty about the magnitude of association due to subjective reporting of diet. A combination of nutritional biomarkers could better assess diet–disease associations, but this approach has rarely been considered for overall diet quality, particularly for the association between the Mediterranean diet and T2D. What did the researchers do and find? Blood carotenoids and fatty acids can be used as an objective measure of adherence to the Mediterranean diet, as indicated by results from a trial (n = 128) of adopting Mediterranean diet with provision of its key foods to study participants. These biomarkers discriminated well between the trial participants under the Mediterranean diet intervention and those randomised to continuation of habitual diet (C-statistic = 0.88). In a study across 8 European countries (n = 22,202), adherence to the Mediterranean diet, estimated using a combination of nutritional biomarkers, was associated with lower risk of new onset T2D, with a stronger relationship compared to that with self-reported Mediterranean diet. The hazard ratios (HRs) (95% confidence interval (CI)) per standard deviation of adherence were 0.71 (0.65 to 0.77) and 0.90 (0.86 to 0.95), respectively. What do these findings mean? Adherence to the Mediterranean diet may be more beneficial for the primary prevention of T2D than previously estimated from observational dietary studies. Even small upward differences in objectively measured Mediterranean diet may be associated with a sizeable reduction of the risk of T2D at the population level. Causal interpretation of these findings is limited by potential measurement error in nutritional biomarkers, unclear specificity of the biomarker score to the Mediterranean diet, and possible residual confounding.

The app-based COVID Symptom Study was launched in Sweden in April 2020 to contribute to real-time COVID-19 surveillance using daily symptom reports from study participants. Here, the authors show how syndromic surveillance can be used to estimate regional COVID-19 prevalence and to predict later COVID-19 hospital admissions.

Abstract Background Type 2 diabetes is one of the leading causes of chronic kidney failure, which increases globally and represents a significant threat to public health. People from the Middle East represent one of the largest immigrant groups in Europe today. Despite poor glucose regulation and high risk for early-onset insulin-deficient type 2 diabetes, they have better kidney function and lower rates of all-cause and cardiovascular-specific mortality compared with people of European ancestry. Here, we assessed the genetic basis of estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) and other metabolic traits in people of Iraqi ancestry living in southern Sweden. Methods Genome-wide association study (GWAS) analyses were performed in 1201 Iraqi-born residents of the city of Malmö for eGFR and ten other metabolic traits using linear mixed-models to account for family structure. Results The strongest association signal was detected for eGFR in CST9 (rs13037490; P value = 2.4 × 10−13), a locus previously associated with cystatin C-based eGFR; importantly, the effect (major) allele here contrasts the effect (minor) allele in other populations, suggesting favorable selection at this locus. Additional novel genome-wide significant loci for eGFR (ERBB4), fasting glucose (CAMTA1, NDUFA10, TRIO, WWC1, TRAPPC9, SH3GL2, ABCC11), quantitative insulin-sensitivity check index (METTL16), and HbA1C (CAMTA1, ME1, PAK1, RORA) were identified. Conclusions The genetic effects discovered here may help explain why people from the Middle East have better kidney function than those of European descent. Genetic predisposition to preserved kidney function may also underlie the observed survival benefits in Middle Eastern immigrants with type 2 diabetes.

Abstract The present study assessed the temporal associations of ~ 300 lifestyle exposures with nine cardiometabolic traits to identify exposures/exposure groups that might inform lifestyle interventions for the reduction of cardiometabolic disease risk. The analyses were undertaken in a longitudinal sample comprising > 31,000 adults living in northern Sweden. Linear mixed models were used to assess the average associations of lifestyle exposures and linear regression models were used to test associations with 10-year change in the cardiometabolic traits. ‘Physical activity’ and ‘General Health’ were the exposure categories containing the highest number of ‘tentative signals’ in analyses assessing the average association of lifestyle variables, while ‘Tobacco use’ was the top category for the 10-year change association analyses. Eleven modifiable variables showed a consistent average association among the majority of cardiometabolic traits. These variables belonged to the domains: (i) Smoking, (ii) Beverage (filtered coffee), (iii) physical activity, (iv) alcohol intake, and (v) specific variables related to Nordic lifestyle (hunting/fishing during leisure time and boiled coffee consumption). We used an agnostic, data-driven approach to assess a wide range of established and novel risk factors for cardiometabolic disease. Our findings highlight key variables, along with their respective effect estimates, that might be prioritised for subsequent prediction models and lifestyle interventions.

The authors show differences in self-reported vaccine hesitancy and uptake among participants from different racial and ethnic groups in the United States and in the United Kingdom during the initial phase of the COVID-19 vaccine rollout.

Abstract Both disturbed sleep and lack of exercise can disrupt metabolism in pregnancy. Accelerometery was used to objectively assess movement during waking (physical activity) and movement during sleeping (sleep disturbance) periods and evaluated relationships with continuous blood glucose variation during pregnancy. Data was analysed prospectively. 15-women without pre-existing diabetes mellitus wore continuous glucose monitors and triaxial accelerometers from February through June 2018 in Sweden. The relationships between physical activity and sleep disturbance with blood glucose rate of change were assessed. An interaction term was fitted to determine difference in the relationship between movement and glucose variation, conditional on waking/sleeping. Total movement was inversely related to glucose rate of change (p

Follistatin promotes in type 2 diabetes (T2D) pathogenesis in model animals and is elevated in patients with T2D. Here the authors report that plasma follistatin associates with increased risk of incident T2D in two longitudinal cohorts, and show that follistatin regulates insulin-induced suppression lipolysis in cultured human adipocytes.

Abstract The Covid Symptom Study, a smartphone-based surveillance study on COVID-19 symptoms in the population, is an exemplar of big data citizen science. As of May 23rd, 2021, over 5 million participants have collectively logged over 360 million self-assessment reports since its introduction in March 2020. The success of the Covid Symptom Study creates significant technical challenges around effective data curation. The primary issue is scale. The size of the dataset means that it can no longer be readily processed using standard Python-based data analytics software such as Pandas on commodity hardware. Alternative technologies exist but carry a higher technical complexity and are less accessible to many researchers. We present ExeTera, a Python-based open source software package designed to provide Pandas-like data analytics on datasets that approach terabyte scales. We present its design and capabilities, and show how it is a critical component of a data curation pipeline that enables reproducible research across an international research group for the Covid Symptom Study.

Summary: Background: The menopause transition is associated with unfavourable alterations in health. However, postprandial metabolic changes and their mediating factors are poorly understood. Methods: The PREDICT 1 UK cohort (n=1002; pre- n=366, peri- n=55, and post-menopausal females n=206) assessed phenotypic characteristics, anthropometric, diet and gut microbiome data, and fasting and postprandial (0–6 h) cardiometabolic blood measurements, including continuous glucose monitoring (CGM) data. Differences between menopausal groups were assessed in the cohort and in an age-matched subgroup, adjusting for age, BMI, menopausal hormone therapy (MHT) use, and smoking status. Findings: Post-menopausal females had higher fasting blood measures (glucose, HbA1c and inflammation (GlycA), 6%, 5% and 4% respectively), sugar intakes (12%) and poorer sleep (12%) compared with pre-menopausal females (p

Background: Postprandial metabolomic profiles and their inter-individual variability are not well characterised. Here, we describe postprandial metabolite changes, their correlations with fasting values and their inter- and intra-individual variability, following a standardised meal in the ZOE PREDICT 1 cohort. Methods: In the ZOE PREDICT 1 study (n = 1002 (NCT03479866)), 250 metabolites, mainly lipids, were measured by a Nightingale NMR panel in fasting and postprandial (4 and 6 h after a 3.7 MJ mixed nutrient meal, with a second 2.2 MJ mixed nutrient meal at 4 h) serum samples. For each metabolite, inter- and intra-individual variability over time was evaluated using linear mixed modelling and intraclass correlation coefficients (ICC) were calculated. Results: Postprandially, 85% (of 250 metabolites) significantly changed from fasting at 6 h (47% increased, 53% decreased; Kruskal–Wallis), with 37 measures increasing by >25% and 14 increasing by >50%. The largest changes were observed in very large lipoprotein particles and ketone bodies. Seventy-one percent of circulating metabolites were strongly correlated (Spearman’s rho >0.80) between fasting and postprandial timepoints, and 5% were weakly correlated (rho

Abstract We tested whether pregnant and non-pregnant women differ in COVID-19 symptom profile and severity, and we extended previous investigations on hospitalized pregnant women to those who did not require hospitalization. Two female community-based cohorts (18–44 years) provided longitudinal (smartphone application, N = 1,170,315, n = 79 pregnant tested positive) and cross-sectional (web-based survey, N = 1,344,966, n = 134 pregnant tested positive) data, prospectively collected through self-participatory citizen surveillance in UK, Sweden and USA. Pregnant and non-pregnant were compared for frequencies of events, including SARS-CoV-2 testing, symptoms and hospitalization rates. Multivariable regression was used to investigate symptoms severity and comorbidity effects. Pregnant and non-pregnant women positive for SARS-CoV-2 infection were not different in syndromic severity, except for gastrointestinal symptoms. Pregnant were more likely to have received testing, despite reporting fewer symptoms. Pre-existing lung disease was most closely associated with syndromic severity in pregnant hospitalized. Heart and kidney diseases and diabetes increased risk. The most frequent symptoms among non-hospitalized women were anosmia [63% pregnant, 92% non-pregnant] and headache [72%, 62%]. Cardiopulmonary symptoms, including persistent cough [80%] and chest pain [73%], were more frequent among pregnant who were hospitalized. Consistent with observations in non-pregnant populations, lung disease and diabetes were associated with increased risk of more severe SARS-CoV-2 infection during pregnancy.

Herdenberg et al. show that adipogenesis and BMP signaling are altered in mouse cells deficient in LRIG (Leucine-rich repeats and immunoglobulin-like domains) proteins. They find that mutant LRIG/sma-10 variant worms exhibit lipid storage defects and that human LRIG1 variants are associated with higher body mass index, yet protect against type 2 diabetes. This study suggests an evolutionarily conserved role of LRIG proteins for lipid metabolism and BMP signaling.

Sex differences in fasting glucose and insulin have been identified, but the genetic loci underlying these differences have not. Here, the authors perform a meta-analysis of genome-wide association studies to detect sex-specific and sex-dimorphic loci associated with fasting glucose and insulin.

Abstract Background The rising prevalence of type 2 diabetes (T2D) poses a major global challenge. It remains unresolved to what extent transcriptomic signatures of metabolic dysregulation and T2D can be observed in easily accessible tissues such as blood. Additionally, large-scale human studies are required to further our understanding of the putative inflammatory component of insulin resistance and T2D. Here we used transcriptomics data from individuals with (n = 789) and without (n = 2127) T2D from the IMI-DIRECT cohorts to describe the co-expression structure of whole blood that mainly reflects processes and cell types of the immune system, and how it relates to metabolically relevant clinical traits and T2D. Methods Clusters of co-expressed genes were identified in the non-diabetic IMI-DIRECT cohort and evaluated with regard to stability, as well as preservation and rewiring in the cohort of individuals with T2D. We performed functional and immune cell signature enrichment analyses, and a genome-wide association study to describe the genetic regulation of the modules. Phenotypic and trans-omics associations of the transcriptomic modules were investigated across both IMI-DIRECT cohorts. Results We identified 55 whole blood co-expression modules, some of which clustered in larger super-modules. We identified a large number of associations between these transcriptomic modules and measures of insulin action and glucose tolerance. Some of the metabolically linked modules reflect neutrophil-lymphocyte ratio in blood while others are independent of white blood cell estimates, including a module of genes encoding neutrophil granule proteins with antibacterial properties for which the strongest associations with clinical traits and T2D status were observed. Through the integration of genetic and multi-omics data, we provide a holistic view of the regulation and molecular context of whole blood transcriptomic modules. We furthermore identified an overlap between genetic signals for T2D and co-expression modules involved in type II interferon signaling. Conclusions Our results offer a large-scale map of whole blood transcriptomic modules in the context of metabolic disease and point to novel biological candidates for future studies related to T2D.

Background Both genetic and lifestyle factors contribute to the risk of type 2 diabetes, but the extent to which there is a synergistic effect of the 2 factors is unclear. The aim of this study was to examine the joint associations of genetic risk and diet quality with incident type 2 diabetes. Methods and findings We analyzed data from 35,759 men and women in the United States participating in the Nurses’ Health Study (NHS) I (1986 to 2016) and II (1991 to 2017) and the Health Professionals Follow-up Study (HPFS; 1986 to 2016) with available genetic data and who did not have diabetes, cardiovascular disease, or cancer at baseline. Genetic risk was characterized using both a global polygenic score capturing overall genetic risk and pathway-specific polygenic scores denoting distinct pathophysiological mechanisms. Diet quality was assessed using the Alternate Healthy Eating Index (AHEI). Cox models were used to calculate hazard ratios (HRs) for type 2 diabetes after adjusting for potential confounders. With over 902,386 person-years of follow-up, 4,433 participants were diagnosed with type 2 diabetes. The relative risk of type 2 diabetes was 1.29 (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.25, 1.32; P < 0.001) per standard deviation (SD) increase in global polygenic score and 1.13 (1.09, 1.17; P < 0.001) per 10-unit decrease in AHEI. Irrespective of genetic risk, low diet quality, as compared to high diet quality, was associated with approximately 30% increased risk of type 2 diabetes (Pinteraction = 0.69). The joint association of low diet quality and increased genetic risk was similar to the sum of the risk associated with each factor alone (Pinteraction = 0.30). Limitations of this study include the self-report of diet information and possible bias resulting from inclusion of highly educated participants with available genetic data. Conclusions These data provide evidence for the independent associations of genetic risk and diet quality with incident type 2 diabetes and suggest that a healthy diet is associated with lower diabetes risk across all levels of genetic risk. In an observational study of 3 cohorts in the United States, Jordi Merino, Marta Guasch-Ferré, Jun Li, and colleagues investigate the individual and combined associations between genetic risk, diet quality, and risk of type 2 diabetes. Author summary Why was this study done? Both genetic and lifestyle factors contribute to individual-level risk of type 2 diabetes. While previous studies have shown that adherence to a healthy lifestyle is associated with reduced risk of type 2 diabetes regardless of genetic risk, the partial characterization of genetic risk and the predominant assessment of interactions on the multiplicative scale might have prevented previous studies from identifying genetic profiles interacting with dietary exposures. Therefore, understanding how genetic risk and diet quality contribute to the development of type 2 diabetes is important to support evidence-based preventive interventions. What did the researchers do and find? In 3 cohort studies involving 35,759 men and women in the US, we used novel polygenic scores for type 2 diabetes to systematically evaluate the presence of additive and multiplicative interactions between genetic risk and diet quality on the development of type 2 diabetes. We found that both low diet quality and increased overall or pathway-specific genetic risk were independently associated with higher risk of type 2 diabetes. We documented that within any genetic risk category, high diet quality, as compared to low diet quality, was associated with a nearly 30% lower risk of type 2 diabetes. Further, we showed that the risk of type 2 diabetes attributed to the combination of increased genetic risk and low diet quality was similar to the sum of the risks associated with each factor alone. What do these findings mean? Results from this study suggest that consuming a healthier diet is associated with a lower risk of type 2 diabetes regardless of genetic risk. Our results underscore the value of genetic risk assessment to identify individuals at increased disease risk and their potential for risk stratification and surveillance. Such knowledge can serve to inform and design future strategies to advance the prevention of type 2 diabetes.

Prediabetes has been associated with diabetes complications, but these relationships may be confounded. Here the authors show, using genetic data in causal inference analyses, that prediabetes raises risk of coronary heart disease, but not other diabetes complications.

Postprandial insulinaemia, triglyceridaemia and measures of inflammation are thought to be more closely associated with cardiovascular risk than fasting measures. Although hypertension is associated with altered fasting metabolism, it is unknown as to what extent postprandial lipaemic and inflammatory metabolic responses differ between hypertensive and normotensive individuals. Linear models adjusting for age, sex, body mass index (BMI), visceral fat mass (VFM) and multiple testing (false discovery rate), were used to investigate whether hypertensive cases and normotensive controls had different fasting and postprandial (in response to two standardised test meal challenges) lipaemic, glycaemic, insulinaemic, and inflammatory (glycoprotein acetylation (GlycA)) responses in 989 participants from the ZOE PREDICT-1 nutritional intervention study. Compared to normotensive controls, hypertensive individuals had significantly higher fasting and postprandial insulin, triglycerides, and markers of inflammation after adjusting for age, sex, and BMI (effect size: Beta (Standard Error) ranging from 0.17 (0.08), p = 0.04 for peak insulin to 0.29 (0.08), p = 4.4 × 10−4 for peak GlycA). No difference was seen for postprandial glucose. When further adjusting for VFM effects were attenuated. Causal mediation analysis suggests that 36% of the variance in postprandial insulin response and 33.8% of variance in postprandial triglyceride response were mediated by VFM. Hypertensive individuals have different postprandial insulinaemic and lipaemic responses compared to normotensive controls and this is partially mediated by visceral fat mass. Consequently, reducing VFM should be a key focus of health interventions in hypertension. Trial registration: The ClinicalTrials.gov registration identifier is NCT03479866.

Dental caries and periodontitis are among the most common medical conditions. Here, the authors report a GWAS for measures of oral health that reveals 47 risk loci for caries, find genetic correlation with 31 other complex traits and use Mendelian randomization analyses to explore potential causal relationships.

Oral ulcerations are sores of the mucous membrane of the mouth and highly prevalent in the population. Here, in a genome-wide association study, the authors identify 97 loci associated with mouth ulcers highlighting genes involved in T cell-mediated immunity and TH1 responses.

GWAS have identified more than 500 genetic loci associated with blood lipid levels. Here, the authors report a genome-wide analysis of interactions between genetic markers and physical activity, and find that physical activity modifies the effects of four genetic loci on HDL or LDL cholesterol.

People appear to vary in their susceptibility to lifestyle risk factors for cardiometabolic disease; determining a priori who is most sensitive may help optimize the timing, design, and delivery of preventative interventions. We aimed to ascertain a person’s degree of resilience or sensitivity to adverse lifestyle exposures and determine whether these classifications help predict cardiometabolic disease later in life; we pooled data from two population-based Swedish prospective cohort studies (n = 53,507), and we contrasted an individual’s cardiometabolic biomarker profile with the profile predicted for them given their lifestyle exposure characteristics using a quantile random forest approach. People who were classed as ‘sensitive’ to hypertension- and dyslipidemia-related lifestyle exposures were at higher risk of developing cardiovascular disease (CVD, hazards ratio 1.6 (95% CI: 1.3, 1.91)), compared with the general population. No differences were observed for type 2 diabetes (T2D) risk. Here, we report a novel approach to identify individuals who are especially sensitive to adverse lifestyle exposures and who are at higher risk of subsequent cardiovascular events. Early preventive interventions may be needed in this subgroup.

Introduction Sex hormone binding globulin (SHBG) levels are reported to be inversely associated with diabetes risk. It is unknown whether diabetes prevention interventions increase SHBG and whether resultant changes in SHBG affect diabetes risk. The purpose of this analysis was to determine whether intensive lifestyle intervention (ILS) or metformin changed circulating SHBG and if resultant changes influenced diabetes risk in the Diabetes Prevention Program (DPP).Research design and methods This is a secondary analysis from the DPP (1996–2001), a randomized trial of ILS or metformin versus placebo on diabetes risk over a mean follow-up of 3.2 years. The DPP was conducted across 27 academic study centers in the USA. Men, premenopausal and postmenopausal women without hormone use in the DPP were evaluated. The DPP included overweight/obese persons with elevated fasting glucose and impaired glucose tolerance. Main outcomes measures were changes in SHBG levels at 1 year and risk of diabetes over 3 years.Results ILS resulted in significantly higher increases (postmenopausal women: p

Assessing the causal effects of individual dietary macronutrients and cardiometabolic disease is challenging because distinguish direct effects from those mediated or confounded by other factors is difficult. To estimate these effects, intake of protein, carbohydrate, sugar, fat, and its subtypes were obtained using food frequency data derived from a Swedish population-based cohort (n~60,000). Data on clinical outcomes (i.e., type 2 diabetes (T2D) and cardiovascular disease (CVD) incidence) were obtained by linking health registry data. We assessed the magnitude of direct and mediated effects of diet, adiposity and physical activity on T2D and CVD using structural equation modelling (SEM). To strengthen causal inference, we used Mendelian randomization (MR) to model macronutrient intake exposures against clinical outcomes. We identified likely causal effects of genetically predicted carbohydrate intake (including sugar intake) and T2D, independent of adiposity and physical activity. Pairwise, serial- and parallel-mediational configurations yielded similar results. In the integrative genomic analyses, the candidate causal variant localized to the established T2D gene TCF7L2. These findings may be informative when considering which dietary modifications included in nutritional guidelines are most likely to elicit health-promoting effects.

Summary: Background: Dietary advice remains the cornerstone of prevention and management of type 2 diabetes (T2D). However, understanding the efficacy of dietary interventions is confounded by the challenges inherent in assessing free living diet. Here we profiled dietary metabolites to investigate glycaemic deterioration and cardiometabolic risk in people at risk of or living with T2D. Methods: We analysed data from plasma collected at baseline and 18-month follow-up in individuals from the Innovative Medicines Initiative (IMI) Diabetes Research on Patient Stratification (DIRECT) cohort 1 n = 403 individuals with normal or impaired glucose regulation (prediabetic) and cohort 2 n = 458 individuals with new onset of T2D. A dietary metabolite profile model (Tpred) was constructed using multivariable regression of 113 plasma metabolites obtained from targeted metabolomics assays. The continuous Tpred score was used to explore the relationships between diet, glycaemic deterioration and cardio-metabolic risk via multiple linear regression models. Findings: A higher Tpred score was associated with healthier diets high in wholegrain (β=3.36 g, 95% CI 0.31, 6.40 and β=2.82 g, 95% CI 0.06, 5.57) and lower energy intake (β=-75.53 kcal, 95% CI -144.71, -2.35 and β=-122.51 kcal, 95% CI -186.56, -38.46), and saturated fat (β=-0.92 g, 95% CI -1.56, -0.28 and β=–0.98 g, 95% CI -1.53, -0.42 g), respectively for cohort 1 and 2. In both cohorts a higher Tpred score was also associated with lower total body adiposity and favourable lipid profiles HDL-cholesterol (β=0.07 mmol/L, 95% CI 0.03, 0.1), (β=0.08 mmol/L, 95% CI 0.04, 0.1), and triglycerides (β=-0.1 mmol/L, 95% CI -0.2, -0.03), (β=-0.2 mmol/L, 95% CI -0.3, -0.09), respectively for cohort 1 and 2. In cohort 2, the Tpred score was negatively associated with liver fat (β=-0.74%, 95% CI -0.67, -0.81), and lower fasting concentrations of HbA1c (β=-0.9 mmol/mol, 95% CI -1.5, -0.1), glucose (β=-0.2 mmol/L, 95% CI -0.4, -0.05) and insulin (β=-11.0 pmol/mol, 95% CI -19.5, -2.6). Longitudinal analysis showed at 18-month follow up a higher Tpred score was also associated lower total body adiposity in both cohorts and lower fasting glucose (β=-0.2 mmol/L, 95% CI -0.3, -0.01) and insulin (β=-9.2 pmol/mol, 95% CI -17.9, -0.4) concentrations in cohort 2. Interpretation: Plasma dietary metabolite profiling provides objective measures of diet intake, showing a relationship to glycaemic deterioration and cardiometabolic health. Funding: This work was supported by the Innovative Medicines Initiative Joint Undertaking under grant agreement no. 115,317 (DIRECT), resources of which are composed of financial contribution from the European Union's Seventh Framework Programme (FP7/2007–2013) and EFPIA companies.

Background Genome‐wide association studies have identified >1000 genetic variants cross‐sectionally associated with blood pressure variation and prevalent hypertension. These discoveries might aid the early identification of subpopulations at risk of developing hypertension or provide targets for drug development, amongst other applications. The aim of the present study was to analyze the association of blood pressure‐associated variants with long‐term changes (10 years) in blood pressure and also to assess their ability to predict hypertension incidence compared with traditional risk variables in a Swedish population. Methods and Results We constructed 6 genetic risk scores (GRSs) by summing the dosage of the effect allele at each locus of genetic variants previously associated with blood pressure traits (systolic blood pressure GRS (GRSSBP): 554 variants; diastolic blood pressure GRS (GRSDBP): 481 variants; mean arterial pressure GRS (GRSMAP): 20 variants; pulse pressure GRS (GRSPP): 478 variants; hypertension GRS (GRSHTN): 22 variants; combined GRS (GRScomb): 1152 variants). Each GRS was longitudinally associated with its corresponding blood pressure trait, with estimated effects per GRS SD unit of 0.50 to 1.21 mm Hg for quantitative traits and odds ratios (ORs) of 1.10 to 1.35 for hypertension incidence traits. The GRScomb was also significantly associated with hypertension incidence defined according to European guidelines (OR, 1.22 per SD; 95% CI, 1.10‒1.35) but not US guidelines (OR, 1.11 per SD; 95% CI, 0.99‒1.25) while controlling for traditional risk factors. The addition of GRScomb to a model containing traditional risk factors only marginally improved discrimination (Δarea under the ROC curve = 0.001–0.002). Conclusions GRSs based on discovered blood pressure‐associated variants are associated with long‐term changes in blood pressure traits and hypertension incidence, but the inclusion of genetic factors in a model composed of conventional hypertension risk factors did not yield a material increase in predictive ability.

Abstract Background Women with history of hypertensive disorders of pregnancy (HDP) are at increased risk of early onset cardiovascular disease and type 2 diabetes (T2D). We aimed to investigate the extent to which HDP is also associated with midlife development of T2D and hypertension above and beyond established risk factors. Methods We included parous women who attended population-based structured clinical visits at age 50 and 60 years in Sweden 1991–2013 (N = 6587). Women with prior diabetes mellitus, stroke, or ischemic heart disease at age 50 years were excluded. Data on reproductive history were collected from registries. To study the association between history of HDP and the between-visits development of T2D, hypertension, and clinical risk factors of cardiometabolic disease (body mass index (BMI), blood pressure, and total cholesterol), we utilized multivariable adjusted regression models (logistic, log binomial, and linear regression, respectively). Models included data on outcome risk factors at age 50 years, e.g. BMI, 75 g 2 h oral glucose tolerance test result, and mean arterial pressure, respectively. Results Between ages 50 and 60 years, 5.8% of initially disease-free women developed T2D and 31.6% developed hypertension. History of HDP was associated with increased risk of developing T2D between age 50 and 60 years even when adjusting for risk factors, including BMI, at age 50 years (odds ratio (OR) 1.96, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.29–2.98). By contrast, the higher risk of developing hypertension observed in women with history of HDP (relative risk (RR) 1.47, 95% CI 1.22–1.78) was attenuated when adjusted for risk factors (RR 1.09, 95% CI 0.94–1.25). Participants with a history of HDP had higher mean BMI and blood pressure at age 50 years, with levels roughly corresponding to those observed at age 60 years in unaffected women. Conclusions Women with history of HDP are not only at higher risk of cardiometabolic disease during their reproductive years, but HDP is also associated with midlife T2D development above and beyond established risk factors.

Recall-by-Genotype (RbG) is an approach to recall participants from genetic studies based on their specific genotype for further, more extensive phenotyping. Here, the authors discuss examples of RbG as well as practical and ethical considerations and provide an online tool to aid in designing RbG studies.

A Correction to this paper has been published: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-21276-3

Abstract Background Accumulating evidence suggests that individual circulating saturated fatty acids (SFAs) are heterogeneous in their associations with cardio-metabolic diseases, but evidence about associations of SFAs with metabolic markers of different pathogenic pathways is limited. We aimed to examine the associations between plasma phospholipid SFAs and the metabolic markers of lipid, hepatic, glycaemic and inflammation pathways. Methods We measured nine individual plasma phospholipid SFAs and derived three SFA groups (odd-chain: C15:0 + C17:0, even-chain: C14:0 + C16:0 + C18:0, and very-long-chain: C20:0 + C22:0 + C23:0 + C24:0) in individuals from the subcohort of the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC)-InterAct case-cohort study across eight European countries. Using linear regression in 15,919 subcohort members, adjusted for potential confounders and corrected for multiple testing, we examined cross-sectional associations of SFAs with 13 metabolic markers. Multiplicative interactions of the three SFA groups with pre-specified factors, including body mass index (BMI) and alcohol consumption, were tested. Results Higher levels of odd-chain SFA group were associated with lower levels of major lipids (total cholesterol (TC), triglycerides, apolipoprotein A-1 (ApoA1), apolipoprotein B (ApoB)) and hepatic markers (alanine transaminase (ALT), aspartate transaminase (AST), gamma-glutamyl transferase (GGT)). Higher even-chain SFA group levels were associated with higher levels of low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C), TC/high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C) ratio, triglycerides, ApoB, ApoB/A1 ratio, ALT, AST, GGT and CRP, and lower levels of HDL-C and ApoA1. Very-long-chain SFA group levels showed inverse associations with triglycerides, ApoA1 and GGT, and positive associations with TC, LDL-C, TC/HDL-C, ApoB and ApoB/A1. Associations were generally stronger at higher levels of BMI or alcohol consumption. Conclusions Subtypes of SFAs are associated in a differential way with metabolic markers of lipid metabolism, liver function and chronic inflammation, suggesting that odd-chain SFAs are associated with lower metabolic risk and even-chain SFAs with adverse metabolic risk, whereas mixed findings were obtained for very-long-chain SFAs. The clinical and biochemical implications of these findings may vary by adiposity and alcohol intake.

Aim: To assess practical implications of genotype-based recall (GBR) studies, an increasingly popular approach for in-depth characterization of genotype–phenotype relationships. Methods: We genotyped 2500 participants from the Swedish EpiHealth cohort and considered loss-of-function and missense variants in genes with relation to cardiometabolic traits as the basis for our GBR study. Therefore, we focused on carriers and non-carriers of the PPARG Pro12Ala (rs1801282) variant, as it is a relatively common variant with a minor allele frequency (MAF) of 0.14. It has also been shown to affect ligand binding and transcription, and carriage of the minor allele (Ala12) is associated with a reduced risk of type 2 diabetes. We re-invited 39 Pro12Pro, 34 Pro12Ala, and 30 Ala12Ala carriers and performed detailed anthropometric and serological assessments. Results: The participation rates in the GBR study were 31%, 44%, and 40%, and accordingly we included 12, 15, and 13 individuals with Pro12Pro, Pro12Ala, and Ala12Ala variants, respectively. There were no differences in anthropometric or metabolic variables among the different genotype groups. Conclusions: Our report highlights that from a practical perspective, GBR can be used to study genotype–phenotype relationships. This approach can prove to be a valuable tool for follow-up findings from large-scale genetic discovery studies by undertaking detailed phenotyping procedures that might not be feasible in large studies. However, our study also illustrates the need for a larger pool of genotyped or sequenced individuals to allow for selection of rare variants with larger effects that can be examined in a GBR study of the present size.

Abstract The driving force behind the current global type 2 diabetes epidemic is insulin resistance in overweight and obese individuals. Dietary factors, physical inactivity, and sedentary behaviors are the major modifiable risk factors for obesity. Nevertheless, many overweight/obese people do not develop diabetes and lifestyle interventions focused on weight loss and diabetes prevention are often ineffective. Traditionally, chronically elevated blood glucose concentrations have been the hallmark of diabetes; however, many individuals will either remain ‘prediabetic’ or regress to normoglycemia. Thus, there is a growing need for innovative strategies to tackle diabetes at scale. The emergence of biomarker technologies has allowed more targeted therapeutic strategies for diabetes prevention (precision medicine), though largely confined to pharmacotherapy. Unlike most drugs, lifestyle interventions often have systemic health-enhancing effects. Thus, the pursuance of lifestyle precision medicine in diabetes seems rational. Herein, we review the literature on lifestyle interventions and diabetes prevention, describing the biological systems that can be characterized at scale in human populations, linking them to lifestyle in diabetes, and consider some of the challenges impeding the clinical translation of lifestyle precision medicine.

Hand grip strength as a proxy of muscular fitness is a clinical predictor of mortality and morbidity. In a large-scale GWA study, the authors find 16 robustly associated genetic loci that highlight roles in muscle fibre structure and function, neuronal maintenance and nervous system signal transduction.

Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have become a key tool to discover genetic markers for complex traits; however, environmental factors that interact with genes are rarely considered. Here, the authors conduct a GWAS of obesity traits, and find that smoking may alter genetic susceptibilities.

Aims: In this research we assessed the prevalence of prediabetes and type 2 diabetes and its association with social determinants such as indigenous origin and residence area in population from Comitan, Chiapas, Mexico. Methods: The Comitan Study is a population-based study carried out from 2010 to 2012 that included 1844 participants aged ≥ 20 years, 880 indigenous and 964 nonindigenous participants. Ethnicity was ascertained by self-report and speaking an indigenous language was also recorded. Prediabetes was defined as fasting serum glucose 5.6–6.9 mmol/l or 2-hour post load serum glucose 7.8–11.0 mmol/l. Type 2 diabetes was defined as fasting serum glucose ≥ 7.0 mmol/l or 2-h post load serum glucose ≥ 11.1 mmol/l or previous clinical diagnosis. Results: Age-sex-adjusted prevalence of prediabetes and type 2 diabetes was 18.0% (95%CI 15.3–20.6) and 11.0% (95%CI 8.9–131.1) in nonindigenous and 10.6% (95%CI 8.4–12.7) and 4.7% (95%CI 3.3–6.1) in indigenous individuals, respectively. After stratifying by ethnicity, in both indigenous and nonindigenous participants the probability of prediabetes and type 2 diabetes increased with age and BMI. In both indigenous and nonindigenous participants the probability of type 2 diabetes was lower in those living in rural compared with urban areas. Conclusions: The prevalence of prediabetes and type 2 diabetes was significantly lower in indigenous than in nonindigenous participants. Also, the prevalence of type 2 diabetes was lower in those living in rural areas. Health benefits of a traditional lifestyle may partially account for these differences. Keywords: Prevalence, Prediabetes, Noninsulin dependent diabetes mellitus, Indigenous health, Population survey

A Correction to this paper has been published: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-20663-6