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The central idea behind the control of chaotic systems is that the same feedbacks that destabilize a complex system producing chaotic dynamics can be used to relatively easily stabilize it. While many argue that the carbon cycle feedbacks are destabilizing the climate, it will be argued here that those same feedbacks can stabilize the climate. The controlling variable is the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere and the control strategy is to close the global carbon cycle of our planet, including human and planetary components, so the ambient concentration is fixed. The stabilization using CO2 capture from or release to the atmosphere requires less energy per year than used to stabilize the climate in our buildings and for less cost than 1 % of the global GDP. Closing the carbon cycle by using carbon from the air and hydrogen from water to make our energy sources, thus removing the current negative feedback between our energy use and the planet, enables us to use as much energy as we need. Thus chaos control of our climate transforms the threat of climate change into an opportunity for our species and our planet to flourish in the Anthropocene era.

In their Perspective “The trouble with negative emissions” (14 October, p. [182][1] ), K. Anderson and G. Peters assert that negative-emissions technologies are an “unjust and high-stakes gamble.” This characterization would sideline negative-emissions technologies and remove potentially important options from the portfolio for mitigating and ameliorating climate change. As Anderson and Peters acknowledge, the remaining carbon budget is pitifully small; at the current rate, the world will blow through 600 Gt of CO2 in 15 years. Dumping this much CO2 in the atmosphere will almost certainly result in more than 1.5°C warming. Indeed, as advocates of a 350-ppm target point out, the remaining CO2 budget could be negative. Anderson and Peters provide no evidence that faith in negative-emissions technologies is to blame for a delay in implementing other mitigation plans or for the failure of countries to cut emissions. This failure is easily explained by the free-riding behavior of some countries ([ 1 ][2]), and taking negative-emissions technologies off the table would not make collective action any easier. Indeed, given that negative-emission technologies require financial contributions, not changes in behavior, their development and deployment may well be less vulnerable to free riding. Furthermore, we need a lot of arrows in the quiver to stand a chance of meeting the Paris targets. This was a key finding from the integrated assessment modelers ([ 2 ][3]). Rather than dividing mitigation into competing strategies, an inclusive approach would focus on stopping climate change as fast as possible while minimizing risk to vulnerable populations and to societal stability. Negative-emission technologies are not unique in facing challenges, risks, and uncertainties. It is true that negative emissions may fall short of closing the gap, but to characterize them as a high-stakes gamble is not consistent with the facts and the plausibility of meeting the Paris goals without them. Throwing a life-preserver to a drowning victim may not assure a successful rescue, but it is not a high-stakes gamble. Offering the life-preserver is preferable to withholding it, even though it might reduce the victim's incentive for learning how to swim. ![][4] At the current rate of carbon emissions, it will be difficult to meet climate goals. PHOTO: YOCAMON [www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/full/354/6313/714-a/DC1][5] Full author list 1. [↵][6]1. S. Barrett, 2. R. Stavins , Int. Environ. Agreements 3, 349 (2003). [OpenUrl][7] 2. [↵][8]1. O. Edenhofer 2. et al IPCC, Climate Change 2014: Mitigation of Climate Change. Contribution of Working Group III to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, O. Edenhofer et al., Eds. (Cambridge Univ. Press, 2014). [1]: http://www.sciencemag.org/content/354/6309/182.full [2]: #ref-1 [3]: #ref-2 [4]: /embed/graphic-1.gif [5]: http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/content/full/354/6313/714-a/DC1 [6]: #xref-ref-1-1 "View reference 1 in text" [7]: {openurl}?query=rft.jtitle%253DInt.%2BEnviron.%2BAgreements%26rft.volume%253D3%26rft.spage%253D349%26rft.genre%253Darticle%26rft_val_fmt%253Dinfo%253Aofi%252Ffmt%253Akev%253Amtx%253Ajournal%26ctx_ver%253DZ39.88-2004%26url_ver%253DZ39.88-2004%26url_ctx_fmt%253Dinfo%253Aofi%252Ffmt%253Akev%253Amtx%253Actx [8]: #xref-ref-2-1 "View reference 2 in text"

Aggressive efficiency improvements and a shift away from fossil fuels cannot offset climate change threats. This realization creates an imperative for ‘carbon-negative’ mitigation measures; that is, measures that can reduce atmospheric carbon faster than emissions will load the atmosphere. Among such measures, air extraction technology, coupled with secure sequestration, offers advantages of centralization and control without direct intervention in the biosphere or major collateral environmental impact. Significant new scientific developments in air extraction show promise of greatly reduced costs, such that decreasing the concentration of carbon in the atmosphere to substantially lower risk levels may be economically practicable. These developments create a strong case for expanded R&D efforts aimed at advancing air extraction technology.

It is a rare moment in the history of science when a new capability is born that transforms our ability to “see” what is happening in the world in which we live. The use of the light emitted from accelerating electrons as they are bent by magnetic fields that was pioneered at SSRL in the 1970s is not just another example of this, but arguably is the most important development in the history of science in enabling us to “see” the world of electrons and atoms. There is, in addition, a special feature of the new capability enabled by synchrotron radiation: it is likely to remain, in the future, the best way to see the microscopic world forever. This is because the light used to “see” does not only have all the intensity one needs, but also because all its properties can be adjusted so as to provide the ideal illumination for the particular thing one wants to “see.” Thus, literally what was born at SSRL, which has since then been and will be continually improved, will forever provide our species the ability t...

Capturing carbon dioxide from the atmosphere (“air capture”) in an industrial process has been proposed as an option for stabilizing global CO2 concentrations. Published analyses suggest these air capture systems may cost a few hundred dollars per tonne of CO2, making it cost competitive with mainstream CO2 mitigation options like renewable energy, nuclear power, and carbon dioxide capture and storage from large CO2 emitting point sources. We investigate the thermodynamic efficiencies of commercial separation systems as well as trace gas removal systems to better understand and constrain the energy requirements and costs of these air capture systems. Our empirical analyses of operating commercial processes suggest that the energetic and financial costs of capturing CO2 from the air are likely to have been underestimated. Specifically, our analysis of existing gas separation systems suggests that, unless air capture significantly outperforms these systems, it is likely to require more than 400 kJ of work per mole of CO2, requiring it to be powered by CO2-neutral power sources in order to be CO2 negative. We estimate that total system costs of an air capture system will be on the order of $1,000 per tonne of CO2, based on experience with as-built large-scale trace gas removal systems.

While current carbon capture and sequestration (CCS) technologies for large point sources can help address the impact of CO(2) buildup on global climate change, these technologies can at best slow the rate of increase of the atmospheric CO(2) concentration. In contrast, the direct CO(2) capture from ambient air offers the potential to be a truly carbon negative technology. We propose here that amine-based solid adsorbents have significant promise as key components of a hypothetical air capture process. Specifically, the CO(2) capture characteristics of hyperbranched aminosilica (HAS) materials are evaluated here using CO(2) mixtures that simulate ambient atmospheric concentrations (400 ppm CO(2) = "air capture") as well as more traditional conditions simulating flue gas (10% CO(2)). The air capture experiments demonstrate that the adsorption capacity of HAS adsorbents are only marginally influenced even with a significant dilution of the CO(2) concentration by a factor of 250, while capturing CO(2) reversibly without significant degradation of performance in multicyclic operation. These results suggest that solid amine-based air capture processes have the potential to be an effective approach to extracting CO(2) from the ambient air.

We evaluate two risk profiles: (i) global warming risks and (ii) collisions with asteroids that can cause the extinction of our species. The expected values computed for these two risks suggest that no action will be taken to avoid extinction. The result is somewhat counterintuitive, but it is typical of the results of using classic decision theory to evaluate catastrophic risks in the distant future, see the study by Posner (2004). We establish why expected value is insensitive to catastrophic risks see the study by Chichilnisky (1996), and use another criterion to evaluate risk based on axioms for choice under uncertainty that update the classic Von Neumann theory and require equal treatment for rare and frequent events. Optimizing according to the new criterion is shown to be equivalent to optimizing expected utility with a restriction on the worst outcome in the case of a catastrophe. The evaluation obtained from the new criterion seems more intuitively plausible, and suggests a more practical and realistic approach to catastrophic risks: optimizing expected value while minimizing losses in the case of a catastrophe.

Energy security, economic development and averting global warming are conflicting objectives in a fossil fuel economy. In the long run, sustainable development requires a shift to renewable energy sources. In the short run the climate change problem requires swift action2 and different strategies. There is no “silver bullet” and a combination of technologies and strategies will be required to meet the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) requirements.3 The article develops one example based on ‘negative carbon’ using air capture of carbon dioxide for storage into geological sites and solid materials. When driven by energy produced by carbon-neutral sources (such as Concentrated Solar Power or CSP) this approach can co-produce electricity while reducing carbon concentration in the atmosphere (Jones 2008, 2008b, Chichilnisky 2008, Chichilnisky and Eisenberger, 2009, Chichilnisky and Eisenberger et. al., 2009). While providing additional energy the process makes fossil power plants net carbon sinks, however changing entirely the relationship between the three problems: in the short run it advances energy security and economic development while averting climate change. In the long run, the approach accelerates the transition to renewable sources of energy and is compatible with sustainable development. The article addresses short and long run challenges with this capability in the context of the economic incentives provided by the carbon market of the UN Kyoto Protocol, whose functioning is analyzed. We explore the implications for extending Kyoto’s Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) in a way that benefits most the developing nations in Latin America and Africa, and the global transition from a fossil to a renewable economy.

A new high-intensity-beam line with a wiggler magnet source is described. This project, in final stages of design, is a joint effort between Lawrence Berkeley Laboratory (LBL), the Exxon Research and Engineering Company (EXXON), and the Stanford Synchrotron Radiation Laboratory (SSRL). Installation at SSRL will begin in the summer of 1982. The goal of this project is to provide extremely high-brightness synchrotron radiation beams over a broad spectral range from 50 eV to 40 keV. The radiation source is a 27 period (i.e., 55 pole) permanent magnet wiggler of a new design. The wiggler utilizes rare-earth cobalt (REC) material in the steel hybrid configuration to achieve high magnetic fields with short periods. An analysis has been made of the polarization, angular distribution and power density of the radiation produced by the wiggler. Details of the wiggler design are presented. The magnet is outside a thin walled (1mm) variable gap stainless steel vacuum chamber. The chamber gap will be opened to 1.8 cm for beam injection into SPEAR and then closed to 1.0 cm (or less) for operation. Five remotely controlled drives are provided; to change the wiggler gap, to change the vacuum chamber aperture and to position the wiggler. Detailsmore » of the beam line optics and end stations are presented. Thermal loading on beam line components is severe. The peak power density at 7.5 m is 5 kW/cm/sup 2/ for the nominal wiggler field and present SPEAR beam currents and will approach 20 kW/cm/sup 2/ with the maximum wiggler field and projected SPEAR beam currents.« less