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This article deals with the dynamics of continuity and change articulated during the presidential and representative elections in the aftermath of the Liberian civil war (1989-2003). Elections are often presented as pivotal moments, in which a violent past is left behind and an era of peace begins. Using interviews with politicians and voters, as well as observations during the 2011 and 2017 electoral campaigns, I describe how candidates reproduce local political practices in new contexts. The dichotomy between apparent continuities and radical change, as articulated during elections, is interpreted by considering the process of transitional justice, a long history of electoral violence, and the prominence of autochthony, reciprocity, and secrecy in local politics., Introduction Taking national elections as a case study, this article explores the complexity of local politics in the aftermath of a sociopolitical crisis. Following the Liberian civil war (1989-2003), election [...]

Building on scholarship studying Twitter and political campaigns, we examine Kenya's 2017 elections to learn which candidates used Twitter and how they used it. We collected and analyzed 15,691 tweets made by eighty-six candidates between June 8 and August 8, Election Day. We find that, like candidates in other contexts, ruling party candidates in Kenya rarely interacted with other users and instead used Twitter as a broadcasting tool. Nevertheless, while earlier studies questioned Twitter's ability to encourage dialogue between candidates and citizens, we find that some candidates--particularly independent candidates--used Twitter to engage with potential voters., Introduction Through social media applications--especially Twitter--Boniface Mwangi's campaign raised thousands of dollars, organized youth to register to vote, drew support from prominent Kenyans, and even received a most helpful in-kind [...]

An invariant feature of constituency election campaigns is the literature mail drop, usually a one-page leaflet or card left at the door profiling the candidate and appealing for electoral support. In this article, we report on a field experiment designed to assess the effects of such mail drops. The experiment was conducted during the 2007 Ontario provincial election campaign in the constituency of Cambridge and entailed distributing literature for the Green party candidate in that constituency. After randomly assigning constituency polis to treatment and control groups, and delivering the Green candidate's partisan literature only to the selected treatment group polls, we compared the candidate's support levels in the treated polls with those in the control group. Our research detected a modest effect associated with the literature drop. The effect was largely limited to constituency neighbourhoods fitting at least part of the Green party's traditional demographic, that is, those with higher than average socio-economic status. Un trait commun des campagnes electorales au niveau des circonscriptions est la distribution de publipostages. Il s'agit habituellement d'un depliant d'une page depose dans la boite aux lettres et donnant le profil du candidat tout en invitant les gens a voter pour lui. Notre article porte sur une experience que nous avons menee pour evaluer les effets de ces publipostages sur le vote. Au cours de la campagne des elections provinciales de l'Ontario, en 2007, dans la circonscription de Cambridge. nous avons distribue des documents sur le candidat du Parti vert de cette circonscription. Les bureaux de scrutin ont etes divises, au hasard, en deux groupes, soit un groupe de traitement et un groupe de controle. Nous avons distribue les documents seulement aux electeurs du premier groupe. Apres l'election, nous avons compare les niveaux d'appui au candidat vert dans les deux groupes. Les resultats montrent un effet modeste associe a la distribution des publipostages. Ueffet observe etait en grande partie limite aux quartiers repondant, en partie du moins, au profil demographique traditionnellement favorable aux partis ecologiques, soit les quartiers ayant un statut socio-economique plus eleve que la moyenne. doi: 10.1017/S0008423909990758

Can those in charge of redistricting foster electoral competitiveness by targeting some congressional incumbents while protecting others from potent competition? We provide an answer by presenting the dynamic redistricting thesis, which holds that the type of redistricting plan and the time passed since its enactment affect the emergence of high-quality congressional candidates. We demonstrate that the effect of redistricting on competition depends on whether incumbents belong to the party that controlled the redistricting process. We show that partisan plans have predictable systematic effects, with incumbents in the minority more likely to face strong opponents. Moreover, the effect of redistricting on competition is highest at the beginning of the 10-year redistricting cycle and diminishes in a nonlinear fashion over the course of the cycle. The implications of our theory and findings for democracy are apparent: Institutions are an important determinant of the variation of electoral competition across time and space. Keywords: congressional elections; electoral competition; incumbency; apportionment; gerrymandering; redistricting; representation; dynamic redistricting thesis 10.1177/1532673X08326385

A probabilistic-voting model of political competition under the US electoral college system of presidential elections is developed. The effects of variables such as the number of electoral votes of a state, outcomes of state election forecasts, and forecast uncertainty on the activity of presidential candidates are shown.

Political advertising effects on candidate evaluations, issue recall, political cynicism, and gender differences are explored in this pretest-posttest examination of 764 young adult participants. Results show no major gender differences in evaluation of candidates. Participants reported learning more about Bush's image and more about Kerry's issues through the ads. Exposure to ads did not produce increased cynicism among the participants but significantly increased political information efficacy. Keywords: George W. Bush; John Kerry; political advertising; young voters; candidate image; campaign issues; agenda setting

Many studies document positive relationships between political information and campaign participation, but none investigates the relationship between information and interelection change in campaign participation. While studies of 'floating voters' document negative relationships between information and floating, the author notes that activists are better informed than voters and investigates the relationship between knowledge and change in participation, comparing the process among voters and activists. The author shows low-information citizens enter and exit the electorate, while high-information citizens enter and exit the activist pool. The author concludes with an optimistic assessment of democratic change based on the theory that well-informed activists influence floating voters. Keywords: floating voters; democratic change; political information; citizen capacity; political knowledge; interelection change; longitudinal change; campaign activities

Previous research on negative campaigning has focused on the influence of competitive circumstances and the timing of attacks. Here, we focus on whether campaign issues or character are more likely to be the focus of attacks and whether, as part of a deracialized campaign, minority candidates attack less than do nonminorities. Data are derived from content analyses of newspaper coverage and candidates' TV ads in the 2001 Los Angeles mayoral election. Contrary to expectations, one's position in the horse race is not a significant predictor of attacks in the primary campaign. More important are conditions in the campaign environment that maximize the benefits of attack speech. When candidates attack, they are likely to do so on salient issues and character. We also find that minority candidates attack significantly less than do nonminorities, in support of our expectations regarding deracialized campaigns. In a concluding section, we discuss the implications of our findings. Keywords: mayoral elections; negative advertising; Los Angeles; James K. Hahn; Antonio R. Villaraigosa; negative campaigning

The increase in the number of women candidates in American politics has raised questions about whether the presence of these women has an impact on the public by mobilizing attitudes and behaviors. Employing National Election Study data from 1990 to 2004, this work examines whether women candidates influence levels of voter attitudes and behaviors and considers the role of political party and electoral competitiveness in this symbolic mobilization. The results indicate that there is little empirical analysis to support the assumption that the presence of women candidates translates into any widespread increase in political attitudes and behaviors. Keywords: gender; candidate evaluation; elections; political campaigns

How consequential is residence in a presidential battleground state for how people engage in politics? I explore the effects of battleground strategies for campaign exposure, voter interest, political discussion, learning, and participation in the presidential campaign. I also consider the sources of battleground influence, including the campaign efforts of presidential candidates and particular partisan nature of battleground states. Using survey data from the 1992, 1996, and 2000 National Election Studies in conjunction with measures of state campaign context, I find that the effects of battleground environments are limited. Neither levels of campaign interest nor rates of political discussion are affected by presidential campaign intensity. While television advertising promotes learning and participation, battleground influence on the intention to vote reflects the partisan environment of a state rather than advertising or events sponsored by the presidential candidates.

This article explores the impact of cognitive style, as measured by need to evaluate and need for cognition, on information acquisition during the 2000 U.S. presidential campaign. Using data from the 2000 National Election Study I show that both constructs are related to measures of candidate information, i.e., correct ideological placement, correct policy placement, and number of candidate articulations; but that need to evaluate has a much stronger and more consistent effect than does need for cognition. The implications of these findings are discussed.

Endorsements by groups in American politics have typically been studied as voting cues only for members of the given organization. Using both the formal theoretical and low-information cognitive voting literatures, this article argues for a broader electoral role for group endorsements. Specifically, if groups that have clear ideological or policy preferences endorse candidates, these endorsements should provide all voters with ideological or issue information about the endorsed candidates. This inferred information should then impact voters' behavior, especially in low-information scenarios. Using both an experimental test and a test with American National Election Studies (ANES) survey data, this study analyzes the hypothesis in terms of elections to the U.S. House of Representatives. It finds that when the AFL-CIO endorses Democratic candidates, voters behave as though a liberal message has been sent--liberals are significantly more supportive while conservatives are significantly less supportive than they are when no endorsement is given, regardless of whether or not they are union members. At the same time, however, the analysis finds no support that endorsements of Republicans have any ideological impact on voting.

The literature on the implications of electoral 'bureaucracy bashing' for public management is thin. This is partly because of the difficulty of defining basic terms and measuring results in meaningful ways. Using focus group data, this article explores how senior federal managers perceive campaign bureaucracy bashing and assess its consequences. The participants perceive that candidate-based bashing affects federal management on two levels: one emotional, the other programmatic. The emotional impact is pronounced, producing frustration and hostility from senior managers toward political candidates, political appointees, and the media. Senior managers report that bashing adversely affects policy implementation through low morale, poor recruitment, and training and by fostering an environment of distrust toward bureaucracy. Grounded in a diverse literature relating to public administration, the presidency, campaigns and elections, and political communication, this inquiry finds that senior managers confirm many of the speculations these works raise about how bashing affects public employees and public policy.

Campaign contribution limits have been a common feature of campaign finance reform efforts in most states. Despite their apparent popularity, campaign contribution limits have been criticized in academic literature. In particular, it has been suggested that contribution limits are likely to increase the disparity in contributions among candidates in general and the disparity between incumbents and challengers in particular. In this article we subject this important criticism of campaign contribution limits to empirical testing. Analyses of both the number of contributors and the dollar amount of contributions to gubernatorial candidates suggest no support for an increased bias in favor of incumbents resulting from the presence of contribution limits. If anything, contribution limits can work to reduce the bias that traditionally works in favor of incumbents. Also, contribution limits do not seem to increase contribution disparity between candidates in general. Results hold for different subsets of contributors: all contributors, particularistic contributors, and corporate contributors.

Political parties have recently rediscovered grassroots tactics for voter mobilization. The only solid evidence for the effectiveness of such get-out-the-vote (GOTV) tactics is based upon non-partisan field experiments that may not accurately capture the effectiveness of partisan campaign outreach. In order to address this lacuna, during the 2002 Michigan gubernatorial election, a large field experiment across 14 state house districts evaluated the cost effectiveness of three mobilization technologies utilized by the Michigan Democratic Party's Youth Coordinated Campaign: door hangers, volunteer phone calls, and face-to-face visits. Contrary to past non-partisan experiments, our results indicate that all three GOTV strategies possess similar cost-effectiveness.

Analysis of panel data from Brazil, Mexico, and Russia suggests that presidential campaigns have ambiguous effects on inequalities in political knowledge. In all three countries, the 'knowledge gap' among citizens with different levels of socioeconomic resources stayed the same or widened. At the same time, less affluent and educated citizens who paid a great deal of attention to the campaign learned more than equally attentive high-status citizens. These findings suggest that modern, media-intensive electoral campaigns do provide information to low socioeconomic status citizens in readily digestible form, but they fail to stimulate sufficient attention to politics among these citizens to close the knowledge gap.

This article estimates the extent to which nonpartisan phone calls from commercial phone banks increase voter turnout. Prior to the 1998 and 2002 elections, randomized field experiments were conducted in which more than 1 million subjects were randomly assigned to treatment and control conditions. The results indicate that this type of phone calling campaign is ineffective. Keywords: voter turnout; voter mobilization; field experiments

It would be useful as well as interesting to understand more about why people decide to vote. The theoretical literature suggests that they weigh the costs and benefits of voting and also consider the moral obligation to participate. Relevant empirical evidence comes from surveys, comparisons of states with differing laws and electoral processes, and randomized field studies of voter mobilization efforts. The randomized experiments are by far the most rigorous sources, and they have yielded some insights about why people choose to vote or not to vote. However, much remains to be investigated, and this article provides a research agenda. Keywords: voting; motivation; randomized field study

Latino political participation rates are consistently lower than those for other racial/ethnic groups. While some of the disparities can be attributed to low levels of Latino citizenship, socioeconomic status, and age, lack of mobilization by political parties and candidates also contributes to the problem. Field experiments in voter mobilization have found that personal canvassing can have a significant effect on turnout. This article reviews four experiments in Latino voter mobilization, conducted over a period of three years in a variety of electoral settings. The results demonstrate that Latinos are very receptive to voter mobilization campaigns. Getting Latinos to the polls does not require unusually large budgets or special 'Latino' approaches. Latino voters can be mobilized to vote by the same sorts of door-to-door, personal efforts that are currently in vogue among campaign professionals. Canvassing can increase Latino turnout substantially, and relatively cheaply, and may even influence election results. Keywords: Latino; mobilization; canvassing; turnout

Most of the recent literature that investigates voter turnout and mobilization finds little or no impact on turnout as a result of get-out-the-vote (GOTV) phone drives. This article describes four field experiments embedded within GOTV phone drives conducted in the San Francisco Bay Area in November 2002 and October 2003. One of the drives was strictly nonpartisan, two were explicitly partisan (Democratic), and the last was quasi-partisan in that it was explicitly in opposition to a municipal proposition. These experiments were designed to investigate whether GOTV phone drives are effective tools for increasing turnout. None of the GOTV phone drives with a partisan or quasi-partisan component resulted in a detectable increase in voter turnout. The overall results raise serious questions about the efficacy of GOTV phone drives, particularly those with the intent of affecting electoral outcomes. Keywords: voting; turnout; GOTV; mobilization; partisan; experimental design; random assignment

This study examines the get-out-the-vote (GOTV) and persuasion effects of partisan direct mail and phone calls on voter behavior. The conclusions are based on experimental field research from a 2002 state gubernatorial primary election. The study finds that neither partisan direct mail nor partisan phone calls, used independently or together, garner significant GOTV or persuasion effects. It also questions the common usage of self-reported survey data as a means of evaluating the effectiveness of these types of communications. The findings in this study extend previous research on campaign communications by examining partisan communications and by looking at both the GOTV and persuasion effects of those communications. The results call for further examination of how to most effectively and efficiently communicate with and persuade potential voters. Keywords: partisan; direct mail; phone calls; voter contact; campaign communication; GOTV; persuasion; campaign; election

This article presents the results from a statewide partisan voter mobilization experiment in Michigan during the 2002 gubernatorial election. The tactics studied are volunteer phone calls and door hangers. With regard to turnout, the conclusion reached is that volunteer phone calls boost turnout by 8.2 percentage points and door hangers boost turnout by 1.2 percentage points. This effect size implies that both mobilization technologies are cost-competitive with door knocking and that partisan and nonpartisan campaigns are equally effective at increasing turnout. A postelection survey was used to determine whether the partisan blandishments to vote changed candidate preference. No evidence of persuasion from campaign contact was detected by the survey. However, the survey did indicate that the campaign failed in targeting likely Democratic voters and excluding likely Republican voters, emphasizing the need for detailed party databases. Keywords: experiment; flyer; door-to-door; partisan; mobilization; vote choice; turnout; phone

Abstract A substantial amount of political communication research in the Western world has focused on the question of whether images instead of issues are emphasised in election campaign messages. The [...]

Byline: Marco A. Haan (1) Keywords: Political competition; signalling models; election promises Abstract: Overwhelming anecdotal evidence suggests that politicians often promise more during an election campaign than they are willing or able to deliver once elected. In this paper, we present two signaling models to explain this phenomenon. In the first model, two candidates maximize their share of the vote. In the second model both try to convince the median voter. In each model, candidates rationally distort their true policy position. Voters, however, are not fooled. Upon observing election promises, they can rationally infer the true position of each candidate. Hence, the election outcome is not affected. Author Affiliation: (1) Department of Economics, University of Groningen, PO Box 800, 9700 AV, Groningen, The Netherlands Article History: Registration Date: 01/01/2004 Article note: JEL Classification: The author thanks Peter Kooreman, Wilko Letterie, Bert Schoonbeek, and two anonymous referees for useful comments. Financial support from The Netherlands Organization for Scientific Research (NWO) is gratefully acknowledged.

This article investigates partisan language and its role in American political campaigns by addressing two fundamental questions: Can the differences between Democratic and Republican presidential candidates be reliably identified by a careful inspection of their speeches? and Have their speeches changed over time? In answering these questions, over 2,000 speech segments delivered by Democratic and Republican candidates over the past 14 elections (1948-2000) are examined. The data show that (1) Democratic candidates are more likely than Republicans to discuss campaign actors and to use nouns to rhetorically bring their coalitions together, (2) Republican candidates are more likely than Democrats to focus on ideals and employ a more unified, direct approach, and (3) these partisan patterns have decreased somewhat over the years in presidential campaign speeches. While this analysis provides some support for the contention that presidential campaign discourse is becoming increasingly candidate-centered, it also reveals that major party candidates continue to adhere to some partisan rhetorical patterns in the presidential selection process. KEY CONCEPTS political parties, partisan rhetoric, American presidential campaigns, computerized content analysis.

Organized interests employ a number of tactics to get what they want. One of the least understood of these tactics is running advertorials--issue advocacy advertisements that are designed to influence citizen opinion. Using a pretest-posttest control group experimental design, the authors examine the effects of advertorials on individual opinions. The authors find that advertorials have an effect on individual opinions but that their effects are different than those of traditional advertisements. Specifically, after examining the effects of an actual ExxonMobil advertorial that appeared on the pages of The New York Times, the authors find that advertorials substantially affect levels of individual issue salience but do not affect individual perceptions of the organized interests that run them. The authors also find that those with relatively high levels of trust in the media are more likely than those with lower levels of trust to be influenced by advertorials. Keywords: advertorials; interest groups; media effects; experimental methods

We examine the effectiveness of negative campaigning. Specifically, we focus on the question, Do negative campaign messages alter citizens' evaluations of competing candidates? We rely on a research design that replicates the campaign environment for nearly 100 Senate elections involving thousands of voters. Furthermore, we utilize a theoretical framework that sheds light on how negative information influences people's social judgments. In general, the results suggest that negative messages delivered in a legitimate fashion and focusing on a relevant topic depress evaluations of opponents. In contrast, negative messages containing irrelevant information delivered in an overly strident manner depress evaluations of both candidates involved in the campaign. In addition, the findings indicate that the impact of negative messages varies depending on (a) the status of the candidate delivering the message, (b) the characteristics of the citizens receiving the message, and (c) the style of the candidates' criticisms (e.g., policy vs. personal attacks). Keywords: negative campaigning; Senate elections; candidate evaluations; mudslinging

Previous research has shown that candidates who discuss policy more than their opponents are more likely to win elections. This study probes further into the relationship between message features and election outcome by investigating the relationship between topic of attacks in campaign messages and outcome of presidential elections. Using data from seven messages forms--primary TV spots, primary debates, primary direct mail brochures, nomination acceptance addresses, general TV spots, general debates, and general direct mail brochures--representing 89 candidates spanning 14 campaigns (1948-2000), this study investigates the question of whether a candidate's proclivity for attacking on policy or character influences election outcome. Overall, winners are likely to attack more on policy, and less on character, than losers. This effect is consistent, significant in all seven message forms, although the effect size is fairly modest.

INTRODUCTION During the last two decades, dozens of countries have made the transition from autocracy to something resembling democratic government. In analyzing this wave of democratization, scholars have devoted substantial [...], The relationship between media ownership and partisan bias has been an important source of controversy in emerging democracies. Systematic tests of the effects of ownership, however, remain relatively rare. Using data from content analysis of ninety-three television news programs, as well as more detailed examination of six provincial television stations, we assess the extent of bias exhibited by different types of broadcasters during Mexico's 2000 presidential campaign. We find that privately owned television stations were generally more balanced than public broadcasters, who typically followed propagandistic models of coverage. At the same time, private ownership often entailed collusive arrangements between broadcasters and politicians, based on the prospect of future business concessions (i.e., "crony capitalism"). We conclude that changes in ownership patterns are unlikely to eradicate partisan bias, and we discuss other institutional remedies aimed at insulating both private and state-run media from political manipulation.