1. Impact Forecasting to Support Emergency Management of Natural Hazards
- Author
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Karen Strehlow, Daniela I. V. Domeisen, Andrey Babeyko, Ralf Weisse, Andreas Wurpts, Michael Kunz, Florian Pantillon, Kai Schröter, Joaquim G. Pinto, Frauke Feser, Eleonora Rivalta, Massimiliano Pittore, Inga Monika Koszalka, Bruno Merz, Heinz Jürgen Punge, Christian Kuhlicke, David N. Bresch, Heidi Kreibich, Stefano Parolai, Laboratoire d'aérologie (LAERO), Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (UT3), Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Observatoire Midi-Pyrénées (OMP), Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (UT3), Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France -Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France -Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Institut für Meteorologie und Klimaforschung - Troposphärenforschung (IMK-TRO), Karlsruher Institut für Technologie (KIT), Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Observatoire Midi-Pyrénées (OMP), Météo France-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Université Fédérale Toulouse Midi-Pyrénées-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Météo France-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Université Fédérale Toulouse Midi-Pyrénées-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (UT3), Université Fédérale Toulouse Midi-Pyrénées, Merz, B, Kuhlicke, C, Kunz, M, Pittore, M, Babeyko, A, Bresch, Dn, Domeisen, Div, Feser, F, Koszalka, I, Kreibich, H, Pantillon, F, Parolai, S, Pinto, Jg, Punge, Hj, Rivalta, E, Schroter, K, Strehlow, K, Weisse, R, Wurpts, A, Merz, Bruno, Kuhlicke, Christian, Kunz, Michael, Pittore, Massimiliano, Babeyko, Andrey, Bresch, David N., Domeisen, Daniela I. V., Feser, Frauke, Koszalka, Inga, Kreibich, Heidi, Pantillon, Florian, Parolai, Stefano, Pinto, Joaquim G., Punge, Heinz Jürgen, Rivalta, Eleonora, Schröter, Kai, Strehlow, Karen, Weisse, Ralf, and Wurpts, Andreas
- Subjects
Impact forecasting ,010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences ,0211 other engineering and technologies ,[SDU.STU]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences ,02 engineering and technology ,01 natural sciences ,Natural hazard ,medicine ,ddc:550 ,ComputingMilieux_MISCELLANEOUS ,0105 earth and related environmental sciences ,021110 strategic, defence & security studies ,Emergency management ,Warning system ,business.industry ,medicine.disease ,Multi hazard ,Earth sciences ,Impact forecasting, natural hazards, risk ,Geophysics ,13. Climate action ,Environmental science ,Institut für Geowissenschaften ,Medical emergency ,business - Abstract
Forecasting and early warning systems are important investments to protect lives, properties and livelihood. While early warning systems are frequently used to predict the magnitude, location and timing of potentially damaging events, these systems rarely provide impact estimates, such as the expected amount and distribution of physical damage, human consequences, disruption of services or financial loss. Complementing early warning systems with impact forecasts has a two‐fold advantage: it would provide decision makers with richer information to take informed decisions about emergency measures, and focus the attention of different disciplines on a common target. This would allow capitalizing on synergies between different disciplines and boosting the development of multi‐hazard early warning systems. This review discusses the state‐of‐the‐art in impact forecasting for a wide range of natural hazards. We outline the added value of impact‐based warnings compared to hazard forecasting for the emergency phase, indicate challenges and pitfalls, and synthesize the review results across hazard types most relevant for Europe. Plain language summary Forecasting and early warning systems are important investments to protect lives, properties and livelihood. While such systems are frequently used to predict the magnitude, location and timing of potentially damaging events, they rarely provide impact estimates, such as the expected physical damage, human consequences, disruption of services or financial loss. Extending hazard forecast systems to include impact estimates promises many benefits for the emergency phase, for instance, for organising evacuations. We review and compare the state‐of‐the‐art of impact forcasting across a wide range of natural hazards, and outline opportunities and key challenges for research and development of impact forecasting.
- Published
- 2020
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