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This article regresses the market value of equity on pre-depreciation income and on depreciation expense for capital-intensive firms, referring to the coefficients from our model as valuation weights. The valuation weight on depreciation expense versus the weight on pre-depreciation income are compared, to detect depreciation biases, over time and across sectors. Our model shows that the valuation weights on depreciation expense change over time, if the persistence of the cash flow components of net income varies over time and if the accrual for depreciation is inflexible (e.g., straight-line depreciation). For Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs), we find the valuation weight on pre-depreciation income increases with industry upturns, while the valuation weight on depreciation expense decreases during upturns. This result is contrasted to the nearly equal valuation weights for the cash flow and depreciation components of earnings for Resource firms (e.g., mines) over time. We conjecture this is because depletion accounting flexibly allows for "depreciation" to exhibit less bias than in other sectors. In summary, actual depreciation practices influence time variation in the valuation of depreciation, a point which has been underappreciated in prior studies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines how successfully economic forecasts as covered in public media foreshadow major real estate and financial crises. Building from existing research on the accuracy of economic forecasts, we focus on real estate crises and the portrayal of forecasts in the press. We utilize textual analysis to identify articles on specific topics and to track coverage over time, both in the print media, as well as the larger internet-based news world; we also use the Google tool, “Insights for Search,” to gauge public “forecasting” and popular beliefs. We find that the use of real-time data limits the accuracy of forecasts, that there appears to be a reluctance in the press to forecast bad news, and that when bad news is forecast, the report is often cushioned with counterbalancing observations. Preliminary results based on review of specific sets of articles show that articles reporting on academic forecasts have tended to be more accurate in hindsight than those relying on other sources. Reviews of two periods of real estate crises, the mid-1980s and the 2007-2009 crisis show that many of the serious problems were described in the press as early as two years in advance, but that interest and concern tended to taper off before the crisis occurred, leading to a sense of surprise. Our results suggest while the recent past is not always a good predictor of future trends, it can be very useful to be familiar with long term history that spans several cycles.

Copyright of Zeitschrift für Immobilienökonomie is the property of Springer Nature and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Copyright of Valuation Journal / Revista de Evaluare is the property of National Association of Romanian Valuers / Asociatiei Nationale a Evaluatorilor din Romania (ANEVAR) and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Purpose -- The purpose of this paper is to investigate the effect of the crisis on the pricing of asset quality attributes. This paper uses sales transaction data to examine whether flight from risk phenomena took place in the US office market during the financial crisis of 2007-2009. Design/methodology/approach -- Hedonic regression procedures are used to test the hypothesis that the spread between the pricing of low-quality and high-quality characteristics increased during the crisis period compared to the pre-crisis period. Findings -- The results of the hedonic regression models suggest that the price spread between Class A and other properties grew significantly during the downturn. Research limitations/implications -- Our results are consistent with the hypothesis of an increased price spread following a market downturn between Class A and non-Class A offices. The evidence suggests that the relationships between the returns on Class A and non-Class A assets changed during the period of market stress or crisis. Practical implications -- These findings have implications for real estate portfolio construction. If regime switches can be predicted and/or responded to rapidly, portfolios may be rebalanced. In crisis periods, portfolios might be reweighted towards Class A properties and in positive market periods, the reweighting would be towards non-Class A assets. Social implications -- The global financial crisis has demonstrated that real estate markets play a crucial role in modern economies and that negative developments in these markets have the potential to spillover and create contagion for the larger economy, thereby affecting jobs, incomes and ultimately people's livelihoods. Originality/value -- This is one of the first studies that address the flight to quality phenomenon in commercial real estate markets during periods of financial crisis and market turmoil. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper provides strong evidence for a positive feedback loop between property prices and mortgage supply, using data from the U.S. commercial property and mortgage markets over the 1991 to 2011 period. The empirical analyses control for the endogeneity of property prices, mortgage flows, mortgage interest rates, and loan to value ratios, and provide two main findings. First, exogenous increases in mortgage supply, measured with the growth of the CMBS market, significantly reduce property cap rates. Second, volatility of past price changes and the 'biggest loss' in property values in the past significantly affect mortgage supply. This positive feedback loop may be an important driving force for real estate cycles. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper we revisit the many studies that have attempted to explain the determinants of commercial real estate capitalization rates. We introduce two new innovations. First we are able to incorporate two macroeconomic factors that greatly impact cap rates besides treasury rates and local market fundamentals - the variables most commonly used in such research. These are the general corporate risk premium operating in the economy, and the growth rate of debt relative to GDP in the general economy (liquidity). The addition of these factors greatly adds to the ability of previous models to explain the secular fall of cap rates in the last decade and their recent rise - in terms of traditional measures of within-sample fit. Our second innovation is methodological; our analysis uses a large and robust quarterly panel data set of over 30 US metropolitan areas from 1980q1 through 2009q3. With this data we compare 3 models: a 'base model' and then one that selectively adds each of our macro-economic variables. We test the ability of each of these models to fit the 2002-2009 period using 'back test' dynamic forecasts. Our conclusion is that much of the secular decline in cap rates from 2000 through 2007 and their subsequent rise seem attributable to the macro-economic factors and less to movements in market fundamentals. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper develops and tests a theoretical model for residential housing market cyclical dynamics. The model employs an interactive supply and demand framework to engender housing price dynamics. Under our set of assumptions, the two equation system is econometrically identified: the first equation, housing demand, relates rent, property values, and capitalization rates with demand fundamentals. The second equation, housing supply, relates housing investment and property values with supply fundamentals. Using the model, we analyze empirically the cyclical dynamics for residential properties in Los Angeles, San Francisco, San Diego and Sacramento for the 1988–2003 time period. The theoretical and econometric design represents improvements and/or modifications of previous studies in at least four ways. First, many of the earlier commercial cyclical analyses have focused on office appraisal and have relied on sparse transactions data, which are likely to be less reliable than the copious amount of residential transactions data. Second, the cyclical volatility and timing of single-family housing is different than that of commercial real estate. Third, by examining different local MSA markets in California, our study distinguishes and isolates national-macro, regional and local market variable effects upon cycles. Finally, utilizing quarterly data (versus annual data) sharpens our ability to focus upon cyclical behaviour. Our empirical analyses suggest that fundamentals, such as employment growth and interest rates are key determinants of the residential real estate cycles. However, in general, local fundamentals tend to have greater cyclical impacts than those of national or regional fundamentals. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The office market in São Paulo has been in recession since the year 2000. This situation came up due to two main factors: [i] the very aggressive attitude of developers during the period that comprises the year 1999 until 2000. At that time there was a very strong perception among investors that a new expansion era for new office buildings in São Paulo was about to begin and, moreover the Brazilian economy had started its recovery; [ii] The intense retraction of the Brazilian economy along with the political transition in 2002, which was mainly caused by the deterioration of the expectations in relation to the economic policies that would be performed by the new government.The recovery of the economic activity in the office building market firstly depends on the macroeconomic growth in Brazil and within the São Paulo metropolitan area. On the other hand, the expansion of the activity in the office buildings sector relies not only on the developers' expectations of how and when the current vacant units will be rented, but also on the potential risk-return composition of new buildings to be developed in the next years. This paper describes the economic scenario in which investment decisions to build new office buildings for rent in our local market are made and we also simulated both the necessary period of time for investments in the São Paulo office market to recover attractiveness and the time interval for the increase in the occupation rate absorb the actual vacant spaces. These simulations have taken place based on projections for the Brazilian GNP increase and they showed that for an annual increment of 4.5%, in 3 years could be reached both, attractiveness for new investment and occupation of vacant areas. For a 2.0% annual growth, the absorption of vacant spaces will take 4 years from now and new investment would be attractive only in 2012. Besides, we discuss the market prices fluctuations on the inflexion point where the transition from one phase of the real estate cycle (recession-non attractiveness) to another (recovery-attractiveness) occurs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]