1. Observing many researchers using the same data and hypothesis reveals a hidden universe of uncertainty
- Author
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Breznau, Nate, Rinke, Eike Mark, Wuttke, Alexander, Nguyen, Hung H. V., Adem, Muna, Adriaans, Jule, Alvarez-Benjumea, Amalia, Andersen, Henrik K., Auer, Daniel, Azevedo, Flavio, Bahnsen, Oke, Schlueter, Elmar, Schmidt, Regine, Schmidt, Katja M., Schmidt-Catran, Alexander, Schmiedeberg, Claudia, Schneider, Jürgen, Schoonvelde, Martijn, Schulte-Cloos, Julia, Schumann, Sandy, Bauer, Paul C., Christmann, Pablo, Schunck, Reinhard, Schupp, Jürgen, Seuring, Julian, Silber, Henning, Sleegers, Willem, Sonntag, Nico, Staudt, Alexander, Steiber, Nadia, Steiner, Nils, Sternberg, Sebastian, Connelly, Roxanne, Baumann, Markus, Stiers, Dieter, Stojmenovska, Dragana, Storz, Nora, Striessnig, Erich, Stroppe, Anne-Kathrin, Teltemann, Janna, Tibajev, Andrey, Tung, Brian, Vagni, Giacomo, Czymara, Christian S., Van Assche, Jasper, Baute, Sharon, van der Linden, Meta, van der Noll, Jolanda, Van Hootegem, Arno, Vogtenhuber, Stefan, Voicu, Bogdan, Wagemans, Fieke, Wehl, Nadja, Werner, Hannah, Damian, Elena, Wiernik, Brenton M., Winter, Fabian, Benoit, Verena, Wolf, Christof, Yamada, Yuki, Zhang, Nan, Ziller, Conrad, Zins, Stefan, Żółtak, Tomasz, Bernauer, Julian, Ecker, Alejandro, Berning, Carl, Berthold, Anna, Bethke, Felix S., Biegert, Thomas, Blinzler, Katharina, Blumenberg, Johannes N., Bobzien, Licia, Bohman, Andrea, Bol, Thijs, Bostic, Amie, Edelmann, Achim, Brzozowska, Zuzanna, Burgdorf, Katharina, Burger, Kaspar, Busch, Kathrin B., Carlos-Castillo, Juan, Chan, Nathan, Eger, Maureen A., Ellerbrock, Simon, Forke, Anna, Forster, Andrea, Micheli, Leticia, Gaasendam, Chris, Gavras, Konstantin, Gayle, Vernon, Gessler, Theresa, Gnambs, Timo, Godefroidt, Amélie, Grömping, Max, Groß, Martin, Gruber, Stefan, Gummer, Tobias, Mijs, Jonathan, Hadjar, Andreas, Heisig, Jan Paul, Hellmeier, Sebastian, Heyne, Stefanie, Hirsch, Magdalena, Hjerm, Mikael, Hochman, Oshrat, Hövermann, Andreas, Hunger, Sophia, Hunkler, Christian, Moya, Cristóbal, Huth, Nora, Ignácz, Zsófia S., Jacobs, Laura, Jacobsen, Jannes, Jaeger, Bastian, Jungkunz, Sebastian, Jungmann, Nils, Kauff, Mathias, Kleinert, Manuel, Klinger, Julia, Neunhoeffer, Marcel, Kolb, Jan-Philipp, Kołczyńska, Marta, Kuk, John, Kunißen, Katharina, Kurti Sinatra, Dafina, Langenkamp, Alexander, Lersch, Philipp M., Löbel, Lea-Maria, Lutscher, Philipp, Mader, Matthias, Nüst, Daniel, Madia, Joan E., Malancu, Natalia, Maldonado, Luis, Marahrens, Helge, Martin, Nicole, Martinez, Paul, Mayerl, Jochen, Mayorga, Oscar J., McManus, Patricia, McWagner, Kyle, Nygård, Olav, Meeusen, Cecil, Meierrieks, Daniel, Mellon, Jonathan, Merhout, Friedolin, Merk, Samuel, Meyer, Daniel, Ochsenfeld, Fabian, Otte, Gunnar, Pechenkina, Anna O., Prosser, Christopher, Balzer, Dave, Raes, Louis, Ralston, Kevin, Ramos, Miguel R., Roets, Arne, Rogers, Jonathan, Ropers, Guido, Samuel, Robin, Sand, Gregor, Schachter, Ariela, Schaeffer, Merlin, Bauer, Gerrit, Schieferdecker, David, Massey, Douglas, Institutions, Inequalities, and Life courses (IIL, AISSR, FMG), Leadership and Management (ABS, FEB), Department of Social Psychology, Research Group: Economics, Department of Economics, Breznau, Nate [0000-0003-4983-3137], Rinke, Eike Mark [0000-0002-5330-7634], Wuttke, Alexander [0000-0002-9579-5357], Nguyen, Hung HV [0000-0001-9496-6217], Adriaans, Jule [0000-0001-7782-505X], Alvarez-Benjumea, Amalia [0000-0002-5829-2099], Andersen, Henrik K [0000-0001-6842-5337], Auer, Daniel [0000-0003-4454-2365], Azevedo, Flavio [0000-0001-9000-8513], Bahnsen, Oke [0000-0003-3198-2804], Balzer, Dave [0000-0001-8345-7169], Bauer, Gerrit [0000-0002-3682-8323], Bauer, Paul C [0000-0002-8382-9724], Benoit, Verena [0000-0002-8596-9202], Bernauer, Julian [0000-0001-5699-5543], Berthold, Anna [0000-0002-1017-5731], Bethke, Felix S [0000-0002-4259-6071], Biegert, Thomas [0000-0001-5437-2561], Bohman, Andrea [0000-0001-8335-9235], Bol, Thijs [0000-0001-9509-8423], Bostic, Amie [0000-0002-9809-5014], Burger, Kaspar [0000-0001-5582-7062], Busch, Kathrin B [0000-0002-6951-0776], Carlos-Castillo, Juan [0000-0003-1265-7854], Christmann, Pablo [0000-0003-0458-9572], Connelly, Roxanne [0000-0002-3886-1506], Czymara, Christian S [0000-0002-9535-3559], Damian, Elena [0000-0002-3776-6988], Edelmann, Achim [0000-0001-8293-674X], Eger, Maureen A [0000-0001-9023-7316], Ellerbrock, Simon [0000-0002-9099-1420], Forster, Andrea [0000-0002-5201-1452], Gavras, Konstantin [0000-0002-9222-0101], Gayle, Vernon [0000-0002-1929-5983], Gessler, Theresa [0000-0003-2339-6266], Gnambs, Timo [0000-0002-6984-1276], Godefroidt, Amélie [0000-0002-5010-2860], Grömping, Max [0000-0003-1488-4436], Gruber, Stefan [0000-0002-3459-421X], Gummer, Tobias [0000-0001-6469-7802], Hadjar, Andreas [0000-0002-2641-010X], Heisig, Jan Paul [0000-0001-8228-1907], Hellmeier, Sebastian [0000-0002-9423-7150], Heyne, Stefanie [0000-0002-1546-9421], Hirsch, Magdalena [0000-0002-9709-9259], Hochman, Oshrat [0000-0002-4941-0815], Hövermann, Andreas [0000-0002-6774-6128], Hunger, Sophia [0000-0002-3859-5674], Hunkler, Christian [0000-0002-1632-9834], Huth, Nora [0000-0002-1651-9101], Ignácz, Zsófia S [0000-0002-2288-5757], Jacobs, Laura [0000-0001-5094-3531], Jacobsen, Jannes [0000-0003-4358-0458], Jaeger, Bastian [0000-0002-4398-9731], Jungkunz, Sebastian [0000-0003-1040-8635], Jungmann, Nils [0000-0001-8849-8373], Kauff, Mathias [0000-0003-3803-3521], Klinger, Julia [0000-0001-8120-5785], Kolb, Jan-Philipp [0000-0001-6982-2115], Kołczyńska, Marta [0000-0003-4981-0437], Kunißen, Katharina [0000-0002-8330-6392], Kurti Sinatra, Dafina [0000-0001-7268-661X], Langenkamp, Alexander [0000-0002-3359-7179], Lersch, Philipp M [0000-0003-3863-8301], Löbel, Lea-Maria [0000-0002-1541-6514], Lutscher, Philipp [0000-0001-6176-7297], Mader, Matthias [0000-0002-4593-2392], Madia, Joan E [0000-0001-8398-8859], Maldonado, Luis [0000-0002-0028-4766], Marahrens, Helge [0000-0002-1729-9104], Martinez, Paul [0000-0002-7041-4466], Mayerl, Jochen [0000-0002-4599-9976], Mayorga, Oscar J [0000-0002-5299-8955], McManus, Patricia [0000-0003-0954-4517], Meierrieks, Daniel [0000-0003-2058-8385], Mellon, Jonathan [0000-0001-6754-203X], Merhout, Friedolin [0000-0003-3703-7651], Merk, Samuel [0000-0003-2594-5337], Meyer, Daniel [0000-0002-1057-6498], Micheli, Leticia [0000-0003-0066-8222], Mijs, Jonathan [0000-0002-7895-0028], Moya, Cristóbal [0000-0002-7176-4775], Nüst, Daniel [0000-0002-0024-5046], Nygård, Olav [0000-0003-2272-8150], Otte, Gunnar [0000-0001-7025-2543], Pechenkina, Anna O [0000-0002-7934-9832], Prosser, Christopher [0000-0002-2992-8190], Raes, Louis [0000-0003-2640-7493], Ralston, Kevin [0000-0003-4344-7120], Roets, Arne [0000-0001-5814-1189], Rogers, Jonathan [0000-0002-0039-608X], Ropers, Guido [0000-0001-5069-2699], Samuel, Robin [0000-0002-7598-197X], Sand, Gregor [0000-0002-4475-0757], Schachter, Ariela [0000-0002-7404-4140], Schaeffer, Merlin [0000-0003-1969-8974], Schieferdecker, David [0000-0003-2376-0929], Schlueter, Elmar [0000-0003-3880-4111], Schmidt, Katja M [0000-0003-3695-1054], Schmidt-Catran, Alexander [0000-0002-9485-6314], Schmiedeberg, Claudia [0000-0002-6015-0460], Schneider, Jürgen [0000-0002-3772-4198], Schoonvelde, Martijn [0000-0003-4370-2654], Schumann, Sandy [0000-0002-0900-5356], Schunck, Reinhard [0000-0002-8185-8919], Schupp, Jürgen [0000-0001-5273-643X], Seuring, Julian [0000-0001-5567-596X], Silber, Henning [0000-0002-3568-3257], Sleegers, Willem [0000-0001-9058-3817], Sonntag, Nico [0000-0001-9951-9117], Steiber, Nadia [0000-0002-9425-8840], Steiner, Nils [0000-0003-3433-4079], Stiers, Dieter [0000-0001-7242-8477], Stojmenovska, Dragana [0000-0002-9805-7229], Storz, Nora [0000-0001-5262-4024], Striessnig, Erich [0000-0001-5419-9498], Stroppe, Anne-Kathrin [0000-0002-1251-9235], Teltemann, Janna [0000-0003-0329-3104], Tibajev, Andrey [0000-0001-7348-1632], Tung, Brian [0000-0003-2630-6115], Van Assche, Jasper [0000-0002-2570-2928], van der Noll, Jolanda [0000-0001-7929-466X], Van Hootegem, Arno [0000-0002-9559-8038], Vogtenhuber, Stefan [0000-0003-0839-4481], Voicu, Bogdan [0000-0002-2221-2499], Winter, Fabian [0000-0002-4838-4504], Wolf, Christof [0000-0002-9364-9524], Yamada, Yuki [0000-0003-1431-568X], Ziller, Conrad [0000-0002-2282-636X], Żółtak, Tomasz [0000-0003-1354-4472], and Apollo - University of Cambridge Repository
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Data Analysis ,IDEAS ,MetaArXiv|Social and Behavioral Sciences|Political Science ,researcher degrees of freedom ,300 Social sciences, sociology & anthropology ,Social Policy ,PREFERENCES ,Outcome (game theory) ,Inequality, cohesion and modernization ,bepress|Social and Behavioral Sciences|Political Science ,Credibility ,SUPPORT ,Soziologie, Sozialwissenschaften ,HA Statistics ,Ongelijkheid, cohesie en modernisering ,uncertainty ,Reliability (statistics) ,media_common ,bepress|Social and Behavioral Sciences|Other Social and Behavioral Sciences ,bepress|Social and Behavioral Sciences|Psychology ,MetaArXiv|Social and Behavioral Sciences ,Multidisciplinary ,analytical flexibility ,Uncertainty ,Ambiguity ,Variance (accounting) ,immigration and policy preferences ,Research Personnel ,Test (assessment) ,bepress|Social and Behavioral Sciences|Sociology ,MetaArXiv|Social and Behavioral Sciences|Psychology ,ddc:300 ,Annan samhällsvetenskap ,crowdsourcing ,Psychology ,noise ,H Social Sciences (General) ,Process (engineering) ,bepress|Social and Behavioral Sciences|Economics ,media_common.quotation_subject ,Politikwissenschaft ,metascience, many analysts, researcher degrees of freedom, analytical flexibility, immigration and policy preferences ,Crowdsourcing ,metascience ,many analysts ,REDISTRIBUTION ,WELFARE-STATE ,MetaArXiv|Social and Behavioral Sciences|Other Social and Behavioral Sciences ,320 Political science ,Humans ,Sociologi (exklusive socialt arbete, socialpsykologi och socialantropologi) ,Other Social Sciences ,MetaArXiv|Social and Behavioral Sciences|Sociology ,business.industry ,Sociology (excluding Social Work, Social Psychology and Social Anthropology) ,Reproducibility of Results ,Tvärvetenskapliga studier inom samhällsvetenskap ,Data science ,IMMIGRATION ,MetaArXiv|Social and Behavioral Sciences|Economics ,meta- science ,ddc:000 ,bepress|Social and Behavioral Sciences ,Social Sciences Interdisciplinary ,300 Sozialwissenschaften::300 Sozialwissenschaften, Soziologie::300 Sozialwissenschaften ,business ,ANALYSTS - Abstract
This study explores how researchers' analytical choices affect the reliability of scientific findings. Most discussions of reliability problems in science focus on systematic biases. We broaden the lens to emphasize the idiosyncrasy of conscious and unconscious decisions that researchers make during data analysis. We coordinated 161 researchers in 73 research teams and observed their research decisions as they used the same data to independently test the same prominent social science hypothesis: that greater immigration reduces support for social policies among the public. In this typical case of social science research, research teams reported both widely diverging numerical findings and substantive conclusions despite identical start conditions. Researchers' expertise, prior beliefs, and expectations barely predict the wide variation in research outcomes. More than 95% of the total variance in numerical results remains unexplained even after qualitative coding of all identifiable decisions in each team's workflow. This reveals a universe of uncertainty that remains hidden when considering a single study in isolation. The idiosyncratic nature of how researchers' results and conclusions varied is a previously underappreciated explanation for why many scientific hypotheses remain contested. These results call for greater epistemic humility and clarity in reporting scientific findings. ispartof: PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA vol:119 issue:44 ispartof: location:United States status: published
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- 2022
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