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We develop a dynamic groundwater model that incorporates both groundwater pumping and investment in deeper wells and apply the model to the arid, alluvial aquifer region of Northern India that is experiencing rapid depletion. We compute the potential benefits of regulating groundwater use by comparing the net benefits of groundwater under optimal management to the net benefits under a common pool regime with two different cost structures: one with flat electricity tariffs, which are widespread in India, and a second with full marginal cost electricity pricing. Using numerical simulation, we find that the opportunity to invest in deeper wells significantly exacerbates the common pool problem and suggests the potential for large benefits (66% of common pool benefits) from optimally managing groundwater use or new drilling. Flat tariffs exacerbate the problem, but large gains (almost 23%) remain even if farms are charged the full marginal cost of electricity.

Given the slow policy response by governments, climate leadership by other institutions has become an essential part of maintaining policy momentum, driving innovation, and fostering social dialogue. Despite growth in carbon pricing in government and the private sector, our review suggests low, but growing, adoption of internal carbon prices (ICPs) by higher education institutions (HEIs), who may be uniquely suited to implement and refine these tools. We analyze the range of ICP tools in use by eleven U.S. HEIs and discuss tradeoffs. Our analysis identifies several reasons why proxy carbon prices may be especially well-suited to decisions (especially at the system-scale) around carbon neutrality at a wide range of institutions. Using a unique dataset covering 10 years of real-world analysis with a proxy carbon price, we analyze the interaction of ICPs with life cycle cost analysis to start to identify when and how internal carbon pricing will be most likely to shift decisions. We discuss how schools and other institutions can collaborate and experiment with these tools to help drive good climate decision-making and inform climate policy at larger scales.

The scientific information needed to precisely link land use changes to changes in ecosystem service provision is often unavailable, particularly for hydrological ecosystem services. Potential buyers of ecosystem services must weigh the risk of paying to induce conservation that fails to deliver valuable ecosystem services against the risk that land is developed before its value is known. This paper uses a two period model to assess when expected future improvements in scientific information should substantially impact payments for conservation today. Optimal current payments increase, often substantially, as the quality of expected future information increases, but the gain from increasing payments to account for the expected degree of improved information is small in many cases. Larger values occur when the buyer believes that the land whose private development value is the highest also provides the highest ecosystem service value, when the buyer faces relatively more uncertainty about ecosystem service provision than about the cost of inducing conservation, and when the buyer believes land is highly likely to be developed absent incentive payments.

Modeling Negotiations Over Water and Ecosystem Management: Uncertainty and Political Viability

Downscaled climate change projections for California, when translated into changes in irrigation water delivery and then into profit from agriculture in the Central Valley, show an increase in conventional measures of variability such as the variance. However, these increases are modest and mask a more pronounced increase in downside risk, defined as the probability of unfavorable outcomes of water supply or profit. This paper describes the concept of downside risk and measures it as it applies to outcomes for Central Valley agriculture projected under four climate change scenarios. We compare the effect of downside risk aversion versus conventional risk aversion or risk neutrality when assessing the impact of climate change on the profitability of Central Valley agriculture. We find that, when downside risk is considered, the assessment of losses due to climate change increases substantially.

Ecosystem characteristics and processes provide significant value to human health and well-being, and there is growing interest in quantifying those values. Of particular interest are water-related ecosystem services and the incorporation of their value into local and regional decision making. This presents multiple challenges and opportunities to the hydrologic-modeling community. To motivate advances in water-resources research, we first present three common decision contexts that draw upon an ecosystem-service framework: scenario analysis, payments for watershed services, and spatial planning. Within these contexts, we highlight the particular challenges to hydrologic modeling, and then present a set of opportunities that arise from ecosystem-service decisions. The paper concludes with a set of recommendations regarding how we can prioritize our work to support decisions based on ecosystem-service valuation.

Governments are increasingly reliant on the reacquisition of water rights as a mechanism for recovering overexploited basins. Yet, serious concerns have recently been raised about the efficacy and operational dimensions of existing programs. Water buyback is typically implemented as the purchase of a fixed quantity of water rights from the agricultural sector at the price set by the Water Authority. This paper seeks to analyze whether the use of water buyback in its current form represents a sensible means of recovering overexploited basins. The results—which are particularly relevant to contexts characterised by poor enforcement regimes and widespread illegal water use—highlight the need for greater scrutiny of current programs and call for additional work to improve the design of reacquisition policies in the context of water resource management.

This paper assesses the political implications of intra-aquifer heterogeneity in the benefits and costs of optimal groundwater management. We use simulation modeling to predict groundwater extraction regimes under two alternative local decision-making structures and compare these structures to optimal management. Local collective action performs poorly when the intra-aquifer disparity in the potential gains is large. Moreover, large intra-aquifer disparity is generally associated with large potential gains. As a result, local collective action is unlikely to be successful in capturing the largest welfare gains. Individual subregions within a groundwater basin almost always benefit most from political structures whose outcomes diverge from optimal management. These results may be of particular interest to policymakers in California. The state of California currently allows local regions to make their own decisions about groundwater management with little outside intervention. The analysis in this paper suggests that there may be regions where large potential gains from optimal management are available, but cannot be realized by the two alternative local political institutions. This suggests that there may be a role for State intervention in the local political processes by which local water management decisions are made.

Increasingly, central governments approach contentious natural resource allocation problems by devolving partial decision-making responsibility to local stakeholders. This paper conceptualizes devolution as a three-stage process and uses a simulation model calibrated to real-world conditions to analyze devolution in Spain’s Upper Guadiana Basin. The Spanish national government has proposed spending over a billion euros to reverse a 30 year decline in groundwater levels. We investigate how the government can most effectively allocate this money to improve water levels by utilizing its power to set the structure of a local negotiation process. Using a numerical Nash model of local bargaining, we find that if the national government creates appropriate incentives, local bargaining can produce water stabilization. The actual water levels that will emerge are highly dependent on the central government’s decisions about the budget available to local stakeholders and the default policy, which will be influenced by the relative value the government places on various financial and environmental outcomes. Our paper concludes by determining the relationship between these relative valuations and the government’s preferences over water levels.

Both developing and developed countries constantly face problems related to illdefined property rights in common-pool resource systems. These problems are especially acute in water resource ecosystems. A natural consequence of incomplete property rights is the substitution of market-determined exchange by negotiationdetermined exchange. Water rights in the western region of the United States provide an excellent example. This paper is a case study of the negotiations over a water transfer from California’s Imperial Valley to San Diego County in light of the transfer’s impact on the inland Salton Sea. We analyze these negotiations as a multi-issue, multi-party, non-cooperative negotiating game. We construct stylized representations of the payoff functions for each party as well as of the physical, economic, and political constraints. To model the default outcome, we assign probabilities to various contingencies that might have arisen had the parties been unable to negotiate an agreement. We calibrate the model to the final agreement ∗ The authors acknowledge assistance from David Sunding, Tom Graff, and Anthony Rossman for many helpful conversations on the details and nature of the actual agreement and on the negotiating process. Richard Howitt provided assistance on the appropriate framework for modeling Imperial Valley farming decisions. Yanay Farja provided background research about the Imperial Valley and The Agreement itself. Jeanie Lerner provided secretarial and editing assistance. We also gratefully acknowledge financial assistance from the Giannini Foundation.

Currently available political economic tools are not very useful for predicting the outcomes of real-world policy problems. Researchers have limited information on which to assign parameters to the mappings from policies to outcomes to utilities or to represent the political process adequately. We present a method for evaluating the viability of political alternatives in complex settings and apply it to an ongoing California water policy debate. Certain options would be "robustly politically viable" if stakeholder groups trusted that they would be implemented as negotiated. Once we incorporate institutional mistrust into the model, none of the alternatives are robustly politically viable.